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Josh Wolfson, CFA jwolfson@stifel.com (416) 815-3080
George Topping gtopping@stifel.com (416) 815-3113
Dave Hove dhove@stifel.com (416) 815-1548
Kelvin Lin klin@stifel.com (416) 815-3106
Stifel Nicolaus Equity Trading Desk US: (800) 424-8870 Canada: (866) 752-4446
Pre-Results Comment
4Q11 Earnings Preview: Capital Punishment
Companies under coverage begin reporting 4Q11 earnings during the week of January 23. We forecast a10% decrease in sector earnings from 3Q11 due to significant decreases in by-product revenues.
A summary of updated target prices and estimates is included in the table below, with details on NAVPS and CFPS
changes on page 10. Quarterly deliverables and upcoming catalysts by company as well as detailed guidance may be
found on pages 4-5.
Fourth Quarter Earnings Expectations
Company Ticker Rating New Target
Price (1)
Old Target
Price (1)
Price
(Jan-18)
4Q11E (SN)
(2)
4Q11E (Cons)
(2)
2012E (SN)
(2)
Earnings Date Analyst
(3)
Allied Gold Mining PLC ALD-T HOLD C$2.43 -$0.02 $0.01 $0.36 Jan-23 Bef-Mkt JW
Barrick Gold Corp. ABX BUY US$70.00 US$69.00 US$47.95 $1.21 $1.31 $5.54 Feb-16 Bef-Mkt GT
Centamin Egypt Ltd. CEE-T HOLD C$1.46 $0.04 $0.04 $0.18 Jan-30 Bef-Mkt GT
Chalice Gold Mines Ltd. CXN-T BUY $0.35 $0.50 C$0.30 $0.00 N/A -$0.01 N/A JW
Dundee Precious Metals Inc. DPM-T BUY $13.50 $13.50 C$8.94 $0.22 $0.26 $1.18 Feb-23 Aft-Mkt JW
Eldorado Gold Corp. EGO HOLD US$13.99 $0.17 $0.20 $0.86 Feb-24 Bef-Mkt JW
European Goldfields Ltd. EGU-T HOLD C$11.95 -$0.07 -$0.04 -$0.22 Mar-15 Est. JW
Goldcorp Inc. GG BUY US$65.00 US$65.00 US$44.93 $0.56 $0.62 $2.55 Feb-15 Aft-Mkt GT
Great Basin Gold Ltd. GBG-T HOLD C$1.09 $0.00 $0.02 $0.07 Feb-24 Bef Mkt JW
IAMGOLD Corp. IAG BUY US$23.00 US$23.50 US$16.23 $0.37 $0.33 $1.33 Feb-23 Aft-Mkt JW
Kinross Gold Corp. KGC BUY US$17.00 US$17.00 US$10.39 $0.19 $0.22 $0.92 Feb-15 Aft-Mkt GT
Newmont Mining Corp. NEM BUY US$80.00 US$83.00 US$60.35 $1.17 $1.25 $4.96 Feb-24 Bef-Mkt GT
Osisko Mining OSK-T HOLD C$11.51 $0.08 $0.10 $0.99 Feb-23 Aft-Mkt GT
Randgold Resources GOLD HOLD US$111.54 $1.13 $1.48 $6.53 Feb-06 Bef-Mkt JW
Semafo Inc. SMF-T BUY $10.50 $12.00 C$7.47 $0.11 $0.13 $0.49 Mar-14 Est. JW
Torex Gold Resources Inc. TXG-T BUY $2.25 $2.25 C$1.99 -$0.02 N/A -$0.04 N/A JW
(1) Canadian listed target prices are in CAD
(2) EPS adjusted to exclude non-recurring or extraordinary items
(3) GT - George Topping, JW - Josh W olfson
Source: FactSet, Bloomberg, Stifel
We expect major quarterly themes to be:
Capital Spending Increases: Thus far, 2012 capex guidance from five producers under coverage has been 50% higher
on average than our previous forecast primarily due to timing differences and inflation. We forecast sector capital
spending will increase 14% from 2011, reflecting in part the 32% increase in sector operating cash flows as a result of
high gold prices in 2011 and consequent ability to finance more development projects, but also inflationary pressures.
Although recent input price pressures have subsided somewhat since 3Q11 (diesel -3%, trade weighted US$ +4%),
labour inflation persists and the risk of equipment availability shortages lingers, with manufacturers Komatsu and Joy
Global anticipating double digit growth in 2012 from record 2011 mining equipment demand.
Risks To Project Financing: While market conditions proved generally challenging in the fourth quarter, junior producers
and advanced developers under coverage have been particularly impacted by project financing limitations for both equity
and debt options. In addition to elements of production hedges, project financing facilities secured by producers Allied
January 19, 2012
Metals & MiningGold & Precious Metals
Stifel Nicolaus does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of thisreport. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
All relevant disclosures and certifications appear on pages 44 - 45 of this report.
Gold and Great Basin Gold in 4Q bear coupon rates of 12% and LIBOR + 4% respectively. While these debt financings
facilitate project development and ramp up in the absence of equity financing options, increased corporate leverage and
production hedges will limit the operating leverage available to equity investors. In our view, as financing limitations persist
for advanced developers, investor focus will shift towards project operating margins and initial spending requirements,
from traditional NAV and per ounce valuations.
Potential Industry Consolidation: Discounted equity valuations have spurred an increase in gold-related transactions
with companies seeking to consolidate jurisdictions and grow through acquisition. Eldorado Gold and European Goldfields
announced a friendly combination that would increase Eldorado’s presence in the Aegean, New Gold consolidated
ownership of its Blackwater project in Canada by acquiring property holders Silver Quest Resources and Geo Minerals,
and Chalice Gold announced the sale of its Zara gold project in Eritrea to Shanghai Construction Group, which maintains
a portfolio of projects in country. During the quarter, B2Gold announced it would acquire Auryx Gold, while Jaguar Mining
and Oromin Explorations both announced entering discussions with unidentified parties that could potentially lead to sales
or mergers.
Operating Costs On The Rise: We forecast operating costs will increase by 11% in 2012 as a result of expected general
cost inflation in the mining industry, including consumables and labour, as well as lower grades mined, which become
economic at high gold prices. Below is a summary of 2012 cost expectations by senior producers:
Senior Producer Forecast Total Cash Cost Increases - Latest 2012E Guidance vs. 2011E
2011E 2012E Guidance 2012E Guidance/2011E
Company Ticker (US$/oz) (% Change)
Goldcorp GG $530 $550 - $600 4% - 13%Kinross KGC $600 $670 - $715 12% - 19%
Newmont NEM $597 $625 - $675 5% - 13%
Barrick (1) ABX $461 $530 15%
(1) Barrick - no guidance has been provided for 2012, $530/oz (15% 2012E/2011E increase) is current SN estimateSource: Stifel Nicolaus estimates, company reports
(US$/oz)
Page 2
Metals & MiningGold & Precious Metals January 19, 2012
Earnings CalendarCom pany Ticker Earnings Date Time Consensus
EPS
SN 3Q11E Adj.
EPS
Call Date & Tim e
(ET)
Call Numbers
Week of Jan 23, 2012 22-Jan
Allied Gold Ltd. ALD-T 23-Jan Bef-Mkt 0.01 (0.02)
Week of Jan 30, 2012 29-Jan
Centam in Egypt Ltd. CEE-T 30-Jan Bef-Mkt 0.04 0.04
Royal Gold Inc. RGLD, RGL-T 2-Feb Bef-Mkt 0.49 2-Feb 12:00PM 1 800 603 2779 or 1 973 200 3960
Week of Feb 6, 2012 5-Feb
Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. HMY 6-Feb Est. 1.00
Randgold Resources Ltd. GOLD 6-Feb Bef-Mkt 1.48 1.13 6-Feb 11:00AM 1 866 966 5335 or 1 800 608 0547
Week of Feb 13, 2012 12-Feb
Pan American Silver Corp. PAAS 15-Feb Est. 0.55
Goldcorp Inc. GG, GG-T 15-Feb Aft-Mkt 0.62 0.56 16-Feb 1:00PM 1 800 355 4959 or 1 416 695 6617
Kinross Gold Corp. KGC, K-T 15-Feb Aft-Mkt 0.22 0.19 16-Feb 8:30AM 1 800 319 4610 or 1 604 638 5340
Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd. AEM, AEM-T 16-Feb Est. 0.52 16-Feb 11:00AM 1 800 814 4859 or 1 416 644 3414
OceanaGold Corp. OGC-T 16-Feb Bef-Mkt 0.03
Barrick Gold Corp. ABX, ABX-T 16-Feb Bef-Mkt 1.31 1.21 16-Feb 9:30AM 1 800 742 6164 or 1 212 231 2901
Gold Fields Ltd. GFI 17-Feb Est. 1.49
Week of Feb 20, 2012 19-Feb
Yamana Gold Inc. AUY, YRI-T 22-Feb Aft-Mkt 0.25 23-Feb 11:00AM 1 800 952 6845 or 1 416 695 6616
Dundee Precious Metals Inc. DPM-T 23-Feb Aft-Mkt 0.26 0.22
Golden Star Resources Ltd. GSS, GSC-T 23-Feb Est. 0.01
IAMGOLD Corp. IAG, IMG-T 23-Feb Aft-Mkt 0.33 0.37
Alamos Gold Inc. AGI-T 23-Feb Bef-Mkt 0.21 23-Feb 12:00PM 1 800 355 4959 or 1 416 695 6617
Centerra Gold Inc. CG-T 23-Feb Aft-Mkt 0.37 24-Feb 10:30AM 1 800 895 5087 or 1 212 231 2903
Osisko Mining OSK-T 23-Feb Aft-Mkt 0.10 0.08 24-Feb 11:00AM 1 800 931 6421 or 1 416 981 9000
Minefinders Corp. Ltd. MFN, MFL-T 23-Feb Aft-mkt 0.22 24-Feb 11:00AM 1 877 440 9795 or 1 416 340 8530
Compania de Minas Buenaventura BVN 24-Feb Est. 0.84
Newmont Mining Corp. NEM 24-Feb Bef-Mkt 1.25 1.17
Great Basin Gold Ltd. GBG, GBG-T 24-Feb Bef Mkt 0.02 0.00
Primero Mining P-T 24-Feb Est. N/A
Hecla Mining Company HL 24-Feb Est. 0.07
Eldorado Gold Corp. EGO, ELD-T 24-Feb Bef-Mkt 0.20 0.17 24-Feb 11:30AM 1 877 440 9795 or 1 416 340 8527
Week of Feb 27, 2012 and thereafter 26-Feb
New Gold Inc. NGD, NGD-T 2-Mar Est. 0.11
Week of Mar 5, 2012 and thereafter 4-Mar
Silver W heaton Corp. SLW , SLW -T 14-Mar Est. 0.44
Aurizon Mines Ltd. AZK, ARZ-T 15-Mar Est. 0.13
AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. AU 15-Mar Est. 3.87
European Goldfields Ltd. EGU-T 15-Mar Est. (0.04) (0.07)
Jaguar Mining Inc. JAG, JAG-T 21-Mar Est. 0.03
Franco-Nevada Corporation FNV-T 21-Mar Est. 0.32 22-Mar 10:00AM
AuRico Gold Inc AUQ, AUQ-T 23-Mar Est. 0.19
Semafo Inc. SMF-T 14-Mar Est. 0.13 0.11
Source: Bloomberg, Company reports, Stifel N icolaus estimates
Page 3
Metals & MiningGold & Precious Metals January 19, 2012
Deliverables Update and Production Guidance - Senior and Intermediate Producers4Q11 Deliverables In the Pipeline 2011 Corporate Guidance SN Models - 2011E 2012 Corporate Guidance SN Models - 2012E
Barrick Gold Production (koz) Costs ($/oz) Production (koz) Costs ($/oz) Production (koz) Costs ($/oz) Production (koz) Costs ($/oz)
· Pueblo Viejo construction update · Pueblo Viejo 60% j/v startup ( $3.6-3.8B capex, mid-2012) 7,600-7,800 equity $460-$475 TCC 7,700 $460 TBA 7,830 $530
· Lumw ana copper production and exploration results from 16 rigs · Pascua Lama $1.25B debt f inancing (2012)
· Pascua Lama startup ($5.0B capex, mid-2013)
· Cerro Casale 75% j/v EIA approval ($6B capex, early 2013)
· Jabal Sayid copper production startup ($400mm capex, 2H12)
Eldorado Gold
· Efemcukuru ramp-up update · European Goldfields merger meeting (February 2012) 650 consolidated $400 CC 659 $405 730-775 $430-$450 CC 743 $429
· Eastern Dragon permitting update (1H12), commissioning (3Q12) Production and operating costs pre-released consolidated
· Tocantizinho feasibility study (2Q12) and construction decision (2H12)
· Approval of Perama Hill EIA (1H12)
Goldcorp
· Penasquito ramp up to 130ktpd ($30mm remedial capex) · Pueblo Viejo 40% j/v startup ($3.6-3.8B capex, delayed mid-2012) 2,500-2,550 equity $500-$550 TCC 2,515 $531 2,600 equity $550-$600 TCC 2,596 $566
· Reserve and resource update, including Cerro Negro · El Morro construction startup ($3.9B capex, 2Q12) Production pre-released
· Cerro Negro startup ($0.7B capex, 2013) and Eleonore startup ($1.4B Trimmed from 2.65-2.75mmoz at $475-500/oz post 2Q.
IAMGOLD
· Rosebel expansion details · Niobec pre-feasibility (1Q12), rare earth element resource (1Q12) 870-930 equity* $620-$650 TCC 896* $637 840-910 equity $670-$695 TCC 865 $676
· Essakane expansion feasibility and construction decision · Updated Westw ood feasibility (1Q12) Operating results pre-released
· Sadiola deep sulphide construction decision · Potential Niobec strategic transaction (2012)
· Kalana resource (3Q12)
· French Guiana election (April 2012), France election (May 2012)
· Mali election (April 2012) *from continuing operations
Kinross
· Tasiast, FDN, and Lobo Marte project capex and optimization plan · Lobo Marte ($0.7B+~20% capex) feasibility study (delayed, 2012) 2,600-2,700 equiv. $565-$610 CAS 2,580 $604 2,600-2,800 equiv. $670-$715 CAS 2,672 $734
· FDN mining agreement w ith Ecuador update · FDN ($1.1B+~20%) feasibility study (delayed, 2012) Prereleased that operating results will be
· Paracatu remedial third ball mill ramp up update · Tasiast 60ktpd expansion feasibility study ($3.0B, delayed to end-2012) approximately 2.6 mm GEO at $600/GEO
· Dvoinoye feasibility study ($300mm capex, 1Q12)
· Dvoinoye initial ore to Kupol (2H13)
· Paracatu remedial investment (4th ball mill $120mm capex, 1H12)
· Tasiast expansion permits (delayed, from 2Q12)
· Tasiast startup (delayed, from 4Q13) Revised from 2.5-2.6 mmGEO post consolidation of Kupol.
Newmont Mining
· Boddington ramp up update · Akyem start-up ($0.95-$1.1bln capex, early 2014E) 5,100-5,300 equity $560-$590 CAS 5,160 $897 5,100-5,200 equity $625-$675 CAS 5,139 $884
· Conga (Peru) update · Conga startup ($4.0-$4.8B capex, 2015/2016E) Production and operating costs pre-released
· Merian (Suriname) development agreement update · Tanami expansion completion ($400-$450mm capex, 2015E)
Osisko Mining
· Malartic ramp up to 55ktpd capacity · South Barnat deposit road deviation approval (delayed) 190-200 equity *$900-932 CC 200 $925 610 - 675 equity $510-575 CC 537 $677
· Hammond Reef development update · Malartic expansion to 60ktpd ($32mm capex, 1H12) 2011 guidance trimmed from 285-295koz post 3Q, 350-400koz post 2Q & original feasibility 498koz at $273/oz
· Ramp up to full 60ktpd capacity (end of 2012) 2011 CC guidance was for 2H11 only
Randgold Resources
· Loulo mill installation, heap leach study · Senegal elections (February 2012) 690-700 < $700 TCC 696 $718 TBA 853 $592
· Gounkoto underground economic evaluation · Mali elections (April - July 2012) consolidated
· Kibali construction commencement
· Morila tailings reprocessing feasibility study
· Recalculation of reserves at $1,000/oz Revised from < $600 TCC
SEMAFO
· Mana expansion to 8,000 tpd update · Samira Hill exploration (ongoing) 238-263 equity $595-$645 CC 250 $608 TBA 259 $655
· Kiniero care and maintenance update · Mana exploration (ongoing)
· Underground construction commencement (1Q12)
· Mana phase IV plant expansion (2Q12)
· Potential GoviEX listing (2H12)
· Burkina Faso pow er line commissioning (2H13)
(1) equivalent - Equivalent Gold Production (silver and gold); consolidated/ equity - Consolidated/ Equity Gold Production
(2) CC - Cash Costs (before royalties); TCC - Total Cash Costs (after royalties); CAS - Cost Applicable To Sales
Source: Company reports, Stifel Nicolaus estimates
Page 4
Metals & MiningGold & Precious Metals January 19, 2012
Deliverables Update and Production Guidance - Junior Producers and Advanced Developers4Q11 Deliverables In the Pipeline 2011 Corporate Guidance SN Models - 2011E 2012 Corporate Guidance SN Models - 2012E
Allied Gold Production (koz) Costs ($/oz) Production (koz) Costs ($/oz) Production (koz) Costs ($/oz) Production (koz) Costs ($/oz)
· Gold Ridge ramp-up update · Simberi plant 3.5 mmtpa expansion and HFO installation (4Q12) 58 Simberi $1,000 TCC 57 $1023 Simberi TBA 72 $890 Simberi
· Simberi sulphide bankable feasibility (2012); construction decision (2014) 40 Gold Ridge Not Provided 51 $1392 Gold Ridge 100 $1038 Gold Ridge
· Simberi & Gold Ridge exploration (ongoing) (FYE June 30) - company guidance and SN estimates are CY 2011
Centamin Egypt
· Sukari mine ramp up to 5mmtpy update · Stage 4 plant expansion to 10 mmtpa completion ($255mm capex, 1Q13) 202-210 equity $550 CC 203* $640 TBA 242 $660
· Sukari underground mining ramp up update · Egypt parliamentary (Nov 2011 - Mar 2012) Production pre-released
· Egypt update · Egypt presidential elections (Jun 2012)
· New mining law in Egypt (pending) Guidance lowered from 250-290koz at $450/oz post 2Q
Chalice Gold
· Koka mining agreement (delivered) · Receipt of ENAMCO $34mm payment for 30% interest (January 2012) - - - - - - - -
· Koka mining license (delivered) · Due diligence completion by Shanghai Construction Group (March 2012)
· Mogoraib drilling (1Q12)
· Koka construction (1H12) and production (2014)
Dundee Precious Metals
· Krumovgrad EIA decision (delivered) · Chelopech expansion to 2 mmtpa (3Q12) 120-123* gold 113* $384* TBA 153* $314*
· Krumovgrad feasibility study (delivered) · NCS sulphuric acid plant feasibility study (mid-2012) 38.0-39.5* mmlbs copper 34.1* $0.96*/lb 43.7* $0.7*/lb
· Chelopech expansion update · NCS throughput expansion (4Q12) 1.8 mmt ore processed at Chelopech 1.7 mmt ore processed at Chelopech
· Deno open-pit scoping study (2H12), underground resource (1Q13) *metals in concentrate
European Goldfields
· Eldorado Gold merger meeting (February 2012) - - - - - - - -
· Skouries construction permits and contractor selection (1H12)
· Olympias concentrate agreement (1H12)
· Piavitsa resource (1H12)
· Flash smelter feasibility (2H12)
· Certej f inal permits (2012)
Great Basin Gold
· Hollister resource update · Burnstone ramp-up (2011-2013) 100-110* Hollister $600-$650 CC 100* $574 100* 101* $653
· Esmeralda on-site dore production · Hollister EIS approval (2012) 29-32 Burnstone $1677 - CC 24 $1676 135 71 $1120
· Burnstone line 2 electrical permit (2012) *gold equivalent production
Torex Gold Resources
· Updated Morelos resource estimate (1Q12) - - - - - - - -
· Morelos bankable feasibility study (2Q12)
· Mexico elections (July 2012)
· Permanent land access agreements (1H12)
· Morelos south of the river drilling (2012)
(1) equivalent - Equivalent Gold Production (silver and gold); consolidated/ equity - Consolidated/ Equity Gold Production
(2) CC - Cash Costs (before royalties); TCC - Total Cash Costs (after royalties); CAS - Cost Applicable To Sales
Source: Company reports, Stifel Nicolaus estimates
Page 5
Metals & MiningGold & Precious Metals January 19, 2012
4Q11 Earnings Preview
Producers in our coverage universe are expected to begin reporting December quarter earnings during the week of January 23. Total sector earnings are forecasted to decrease 10% from last quarter and increase 24% from last year.
Observations:
Total sector earnings are forecast to decrease 10% from 3Q11 to 4Q11, impacted by a 1% decrease in the price of gold, a 1% increase in total cash costs, and significant decreases in by-product revenues. Of the 14 reporting companies under coverage, producers expected to report notable increases in EPS include IAMGOLD and Osisko.
Year-over-year, total sector earnings excluding write-downs are expected to rise 24% from 4Q10 to 4Q11, due to higher metal prices (gold +23%, silver +20%, offset by copper -13%) and 2% higher production (13% increase in throughput as a result of consolidations, expansions, and new mines), slightly offset by 13% higher operating costs (3% lower head grades, 10% increase in diesel prices).
4Q results from by-product metal producers are expected to be weaker versus 3Q11 due to lower silver (-18%), copper (-17%), and zinc prices (-15%). The largest percentages of non-gold revenues in 4Q11 are expected to be generated by European Goldfields, (43% silver, 57% zinc and lead), Dundee Precious Metals (2% silver and 31% copper), and Goldcorp (15% silver, 4% copper, 7% zinc and lead). Lower base metals’ prices in the quarter are also expected to negatively impact by-product copper producers, including Barrick (14% copper) and Newmont (6% copper). The lower silver price in the quarter is expected to negatively impact Kinross (7% silver) and Great Basin (6% silver).
Quarterly Currency & Commodity Comparisons
Spot
(Jan-18)
Change
Spot/4Q114Q11 3Q11
Change
4Q11/3Q114Q10
Change
4Q11/4Q10
Gold (US$/oz) $1,661 -1% $1,682 $1,704 -1% $1,367 23%
Silver (US$/oz) $30.50 -4% $31.80 $38.86 -18% $26.46 20%
Copper (US$/lb) $3.73 10% $3.40 $4.07 -17% $3.92 -13%
Zinc (US$/lb) $0.91 6% $0.86 $1.01 -15% $1.05 -18%
WTI Crude (US$/Bbl) $100 7% $94 $89 5% $85 10%
C$:US$ 1.01 -1% 1.02 0.98 4% 1.01 1%
A$:US$ 0.96 -2% 0.99 0.95 4% 1.01 -2%
Rand:US$ 8.02 -1% 8.09 7.13 13% 6.90 17%
Real:US$ 1.77 -1% 1.80 1.63 10% 1.70 6%
CLP:US$ 496 -3% 512 472 8% 480 7%
Source: Factset, Bloomberg, Stifel Nicolaus
Page 6
Metals & MiningGold & Precious Metals January 19, 2012
Operating Expectations
For companies under coverage, production will be flat at 5.3 million ounces in 4Q11 versus last quarter. Increased production from Goldcorp (+16%, Penasquito ramping up and Marlin accessing higher grade ore) and IAMGOLD
(+14%, 3Q11 production shortfall) is expected to be offset by weaker results from Barrick (-4%, lower grades at Cortez Hills) and Kinross (-5%, lower throughput at Paracatu).
Fourth quarter total cash costs (co-product basis) are expected to rise 2% to $585/oz from $573/oz in 4Q11, and 14% from 4Q10. Compared to last quarter, the strongest improvements in total cash costs on a per ounce basis are expected to be reported by Centamin (-6%, Sukari ramping up as well as management capitalizing underground development costs and deferring stripping), Osisko (-8%, higher grades at Malartic), Newmont (-5%, higher grades at Boddington, Yanacocha, and Nevada), but not enough to offset higher costs forecasted for Barrick (+12%, higher consumable and labor costs at operations in Africa, Australia and South America off a low 3Q11 base), Kinross (+5%, higher consumable and labor costs at operations in Africa and South America), Dundee Precious Metals (+12%, lower copper revenues and weaker anticipated Deno results), and Allied Gold (+9%, ramp-up at Gold Ridge).
Gold Production (000 ounces)
Company4Q11E
(SN)3Q11A
4Q11
/3Q114Q10A
4Q11
/4Q102010A 2011E
2011
/20102012E
2012
/20112013E
2013
/2012
Allied Gold Mining PLC 31 36 -14% 19 65% 70 108 54% 172 59% 222 29%
Barrick Gold Corp. 1,835 1,928 -5% 1,700 8% 7,788 7,700 -1% 7,830 2% 8,158 4%
Centamin Egypt Ltd. 59 51 17% 53 11% 150 203 35% 242 19% 374 55%
Dundee Precious Metals Inc. 30 34 -12% 20 49% 79 109 37% 140 29% 157 12%
Eldorado Gold Corp. 158 167 -6% 138 15% 594 612 3% 700 14% 836 20%
European Goldfields Ltd. 0 0 NM 0 NM 0 0 NM 23 NM 55 142%
Goldcorp Inc. 688 592 16% 690 0% 2,520 2,515 0% 2,596 3% 3,168 22%
Great Basin Gold Ltd. 33 29 14% 21 62% 65 118 82% 163 38% 210 29%
IAMGOLD Corp. 253 222 14% 315 -20% 967 963 0% 865 -10% 973 13%
Kinross Gold Corp. 570 597 -5% 623 -9% 2,191 2,350 7% 2,503 6% 2,534 1%
New mont Mining Corp. 1,279 1,311 -2% 1,353 -5% 5,391 5,160 -4% 5,139 0% 5,071 -1%
Osisko Mining 80 74 8% 0 NM 0 200 NM 537 168% 630 17%
Randgold Resources 190 182 4% 132 44% 440 696 58% 853 22% 855 0%
Semafo Inc. 65 62 5% 62 5% 261 250 -4% 259 4% 348 34%
Total 5,270 5,285 0% 5,124 3% 20,517 20,983 2% 22,021 5% 23,591 7%
(1) Co-product costs w ith royalties Source: FactSet, Company reports, Stifel Nicolaus estimates
Total Cash Costs (US$/oz) (co-product basis)
Company4Q11E
(SN)3Q11A
4Q11
/3Q114Q10A
4Q11
/4Q102010A 2011E
2011
/20102012E
2012
/20112013E
2013
/2012
Allied Gold Mining PLC 1254 1148 9% 652 92% 666 1196 80% 976 -18% 904 -7%
Barrick Gold Corp. 509 453 12% 486 5% 457 460 1% 530 15% 562 6%
Centamin Egypt Ltd. 647 686 -6% 539 20% 555 640 15% 660 3% 741 12%
Dundee Precious Metals Inc.869 765 14% 834 4% 786 817 4% 781 -4% 812 4%
Eldorado Gold Corp. 472 477 -1% 460 3% 423 472 12% 486 3% 523 8%
European Goldfields Ltd. 0 0 NM 0 NM 0 0 NM 915 NM 957 5%
Goldcorp Inc. 542 561 -3% 461 18% 443 531 20% 566 7% 512 -9%
Great Basin Gold Ltd. 1001 1018 -2% 669 50% 753 901 20% 943 5% 925 -2%
IAMGOLD Corp. 646 674 -4% 574 12% 574 648 13% 676 4% 729 8%
Kinross Gold Corp. 663 634 5% 551 20% 509 604 19% 734 21% 769 5%
New mont Mining Corp. 600 634 -5% 517 16% 513 598 17% 675 13% 725 7%
Osisko Mining 868 939 -8% 0 NM 0 953 NM 707 -26% 632 -11%
Randgold Resources 741 747 -1% 766 -3% 697 718 3% 592 -17% 577 -3%
Semafo Inc. 712 733 -3% 596 19% 518 690 33% 745 8% 800 7%
Weighted Average 585 573 2% 515 14% 490 554 13% 615 11% 636 3% Source: FactSet, Company reports, Stifel Nicolaus estimates
Page 7
Metals & MiningGold & Precious Metals January 19, 2012
Commodity Price Forecasts
We have revised our near term commodity prices to better reflect current market conditions as summarized in the table below. All changes were minor except for zinc pricing which we pushed out the cyclical recovery to late 2014. We remain positive on equities and maintain our long-term commodity forecasts.
Key Commodity Price Forecasts
1Q11A 2Q11A 3Q11E 4Q11E 2011E 2012E 2013E Target
Gold Price (US$/oz) $1,387 $1,507 $1,704 $1,682 $1,570 $1,763 $2,000 $1,600
previous $1,387 $1,507 $1,704 $1,750 $1,587 $1,800 $2,000 $1,600
Silver Price (US$/oz) $31.86 $38.49 $38.86 $31.80 $35.25 $38.63 $50.00 $38.00
previous $31.86 $38.49 $38.86 $35.00 $36.05 $39.38 $50.00 $38.00
Copper Price (US$/lb) $4.37 $4.15 $4.07 $3.40 $4.00 $3.88 $4.00 $2.65
previous $4.37 $4.15 $4.07 $3.50 $4.02 $3.94 $4.00 $2.65
Zinc Price (US$/lb) $1.08 $1.02 $1.01 $0.86 $0.99 $0.96 $1.14 $1.15
previous $1.08 $1.02 $1.01 $0.90 $1.00 $1.03 $1.28 $1.15
Oil Price ($/barrel) $94 $102 $89 $94 $95 $96 $99 $100
previous $94 $102 $89 $107 $98 $109 $112 $113
CAD$:US$ 0.99 0.97 0.98 1.02 0.99 0.99 0.95 0.95
previous 0.99 0.97 0.98 0.96 0.97 0.95 0.95 0.95
AUS$:US$ 0.99 0.94 0.95 0.99 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.95
previous 0.99 0.94 0.95 0.94 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.95
CLP$:US$ 481 469 472 512 483 516 525 525
previous 481 469 472 475 474 475 475 475
BRL$:US$ 1.67 1.59 1.63 1.80 1.67 1.68 1.60 1.60
previous 1.67 1.59 1.63 1.60 1.62 1.60 1.60 1.60
ZAR$:US$ 6.99 6.79 7.13 8.09 7.22 7.48 6.67 6.67
previous 6.99 6.79 7.13 6.67 6.89 6.67 6.67 6.67 Source: FactSet, Stifel Nicolaus estimates
Page 8
Metals & MiningGold & Precious Metals January 19, 2012
Changes To Estimates
In addition to adjusting our near-term commodity prices for all 16 companies under coverage, we have rolled over our 12-month target price setting cash flow estimates to 2012/2013 (from 2011/2012) and made the following changes:
Goldcorp (GG, BUY)
Incorporated 4Q pre-released production.
Updated model with 2012 financial and operating guidance, as well as 5-year production guidance.
Delayed El Morro startup to 2018 (from 2016).
Adjusted Marlin production profile as it transitions to underground mining.
Lowered target setting cash flow multiple to 13x (from 14x), but maintained NAV multiple at 1.3x.
Barrick (ABX, BUY)
Lowered target setting cash flow multiple to 10x (from 11x), but maintained NAV multiple at 1.0x.
Newmont (NEM, BUY)
Incorporated 4Q pre-released production and operating costs.
Updated model with 2012 financial and operating guidance, including higher operating costs at Boddington and other Australia/NZ mines.
Increased capex generally in-line with guidance but allocated only $400mm (versus company guidance of $1.15-1.25billion) for Conga which we delayed to 2016E startup as a result of reported protests and work-stoppages.
Lowered target setting cash flow multiple to 10x (from 11x) to reflect the country risk (Peru) and lack of near-term growth, but maintained NAV multiple at 1.0x.
Kinross (KGC, BUY)
See KGC note published 1/17/2012.
Dundee Precious Metals (DPM-T, BUY)
Incorporated updated Krumovgrad assumptions in line with recently
published feasibility study results.
IAMGOLD (IAG, IMG-T, BUY)
Incorporated 4Q operating results and 2012 management guidance.
SEMAFO (SMF-T, BUY)
Removed Kiniero from 2013 production estimates.
Osisko (OSK-T, Hold)
Updated Hammond Reef resources (lower grades reported 11/7/11) resulting in increased LOM operating costs, increased our capex estimate to $1 billion (from $750mm) in-line with Malartic, and delayed startup to 2016 (from 2015).
For the first ten years, cash costs should average $600/oz.
Lowered Malartic’s discount rate to 3% (from 5%), in line with other producers.
Lowered our near-term tax rate assumptions as the company is partially sheltered by tax pools related to Hammond Reef spending.
Page 9
Metals & MiningGold & Precious Metals January 19, 2012
Centamin (CEE-T, Hold)
Updated model with 4Q11 pre-released production.
Lowered 2012/2013 production estimates due to ongoing country turmoil, and in line with company expectations.
Eldorado Gold (EGO, ELD-T, Hold)
Incorporated 4Q operating results and 2012 management guidance.
Randgold (GOLD, Hold)
Revised 4Q estimates to reflect production issues at Tongon and Loulo.
Incorporated expanded throughput at Kibali, Loulo heap leach
production, and updated Gounkoto underground mining assumptions.
Allied Gold (ALD-T, Hold)
Revised Simberi per tonne costs to more appropriately reflect year-end
throughput increases and HFO use.
NAVPS And LOM Cash Cost Changes NAV At Target Gold LOM Cash Costs
Company Ticker
Price
(Jan-18) New Previous Change New Previous Change
Allied Gold Mining PLC ALD-T $3.20 4.58 4.35 5% 980 1,071 -8%
Barrick Gold Corp. ABX $47.95 60.88 62.27 -2% 606 603 0%
Centamin Egypt Ltd. CEE-T $1.46 2.84 2.87 -1% 799 772 4%
Dundee Precious Metals Inc. DPM-T $8.94 14.96 14.60 2% 705 721 -2%
Eldorado Gold Corp. EGO $13.99 15.53 16.18 -4% 607 585 4%
European Goldfields Ltd. EGU-T $11.95 15.61 15.21 3% 687 702 -2%
Goldcorp Inc. GG $44.93 53.68 56.52 -5% 550 528 4%
Great Basin Gold Ltd. GBG-T $1.09 3.17 3.18 0% 833 836 0%
IAMGOLD Corp. IAG $16.23 25.38 27.28 -7% 682 683 0%
Kinross Gold Corp.(1) KGC $10.39 20.36 20.36 0% 782 782 0%
New mont Mining Corp. NEM $60.35 80.98 84.78 -4% 711 702 1%
Osisko Mining OSK-T $11.51 13.59 15.54 -13% 811 563 44%
Randgold Resources GOLD $111.54 100.97 95.44 6% 634 621 2%
Semafo Inc. SMF-T $7.47 9.04 9.25 -2% 930 921 1%
(1) Updated KGC estimates published 1/17/2012
Source: FactSet, Stifel Nicolaus estimates Cash Flow Estimate Changes 2011E 2012E
Company Ticker
Price
(Jan-18)
New Previous Change New Previous Change
Allied Gold Mining PLC ALD-T $3.20 0.10 0.17 -41% 0.47 0.70 -32%
Barrick Gold Corp. ABX $47.95 6.14 6.26 -2% 7.27 7.90 -8%
Centamin Egypt Ltd. CEE-T $1.46 0.17 0.18 -3% 0.23 0.41 -43%
Dundee Precious Metals Inc. DPM-T $8.94 0.93 0.93 0% 1.54 1.55 -1%
Eldorado Gold Corp. EGO $13.99 0.93 0.98 -5% 1.26 1.35 -7%
European Goldfields Ltd. EGU-T $11.95 (0.10) (0.10) 0% (0.21) (0.20) 6%
Goldcorp Inc. GG $44.93 3.17 3.30 -4% 3.64 4.52 -19%
Great Basin Gold Ltd. GBG-T $1.09 0.06 0.06 -1% 0.13 0.12 12%
IAMGOLD Corp. IAG $16.23 1.77 1.75 1% 1.79 1.81 -1%
Kinross Gold Corp.(1) KGC $10.39 1.26 1.26 0% 1.43 1.43 0%
New mont Mining Corp. NEM $60.35 6.42 6.82 -6% 7.23 7.89 -8%
Osisko Mining OSK-T $11.51 0.18 0.20 -13% 1.12 0.97 15%
Randgold Resources GOLD $111.54 6.12 6.96 -12% 8.70 8.97 -3%
Semafo Inc. SMF-T $7.47 0.61 0.59 3% 0.73 0.77 -5%
(1) Updated KGC estimates published 1/17/2012
Source: FactSet, Stifel Nicolaus estimates
Page 10
Metals & MiningGold & Precious Metals January 19, 2012
Target Price Setting Methodology and Risk Statements Valuation Statement
KGC Kinross Gold Corp.
GG Goldcorp Inc.
ABX Barrick Gold Corp.
NEM Newmont Mining Corp.
DPM Dundee Precious Metals Inc.
IAG IAMGOLD Corp.
SMF Semafo Inc.
CXN Chalice Gold Mines Ltd.
TXG Torex Gold Resources Inc.
Source: Stifel Nicolaus estimates
Our 12-month target price of $13.50 is based on an equal w eighting of 0.80x our 3%-NAVPS estimate at $1600/oz gold and 8.0x our 2011E/2012E blended CFPS estimates.
Risks to our target price include: changes in the gold and base metals prices; input inflation risks; successful ramp-up of development projects; permitting and country risks;
and attainment of the company’s operating targets.
Our 12-month target price of $23.00 is based on an equal w eighting of 1.00x our 3%-NAVPS estimate at $1600/oz gold and 10.0x our 2011E/2012E blended CFPS estimates.
Risks to our target price include: changes in the gold price; input inflation risks; successful ramp-up of development projects, including Essakane; country risks; and
attainment of the company’s operating targets.
Our 12-month target price of $10.50 is based on an equal w eighting of 1.10x our 3%-NAVPS estimate at $1600/oz gold and 11.0x our 2011E/2012E blended CFPS estimates.
Risks to our target price include: changes in the price of gold; input inflation risks (in particular energy); country risks; and attainment of operating and development targets.
Our 12-month target price of $2.25 is based on 1.10x our 8%-NAVPS estimate at $1600/oz gold.
Risks to our target price include: changes in the price of gold; input inflation risks (in particular energy); country risks; and attainment of operating and development targets.
Our 12-month target price of $0.35 is based on 0.90x our 8%-NAVPS estimate at $1600/oz gold.
Risks to our target price include: changes in the price of gold; input inflation risks (in particular energy); country risks; and attainment of operating and development targets.
Risks to our target price include: changes in the gold, silver, and copper price; input inflation risks; country and permitting risks; successful ramp-up of development and
expansion projects, including Tasiast; and attainment of the company’s operating targets.
Our 12-month target price of $17.00 is based on an equal w eighting of 0.90x our 3%-NAVPS estimate at $1600/oz gold and 9.0x our 2011E/2012E blended CFPS estimates.
Our 12-month target price of $65.00 is based on an equal w eighting of 1.30x our 3%-NAVPS estimate at $1600/oz gold and 13.0x our 2011E/2012E blended CFPS estimates.
Risks to our target price include: changes in the gold, silver, and copper price; input inflation risks; country and permitting risks; successful ramp-up of development projects,
including Penasquito; and attainment of the company’s operating targets.
Our 12-month target price of $80.00 is based on an equal w eighting of 1.00x our 3%-NAVPS estimate at $1600/oz gold and 10.0x our 2011E/2012E blended CFPS estimates.
Risks to our target price include: changes in the gold, silver, and copper price; input inflation risks; country and permitting risks; successful ramp-up of development projects,
including Boddington, Akyem and Conga; and attainment of the company’s operating targets.
Our 12-month target price of $70.00 is based on an equal w eighting of 1.00x our 3%-NAVPS estimate at $1600/oz gold and 10.0x our 2011E/2012E blended CFPS estimates.
Risks to our target price include: changes in the gold, silver, and copper price; input inflation risks; country and permitting risks; successful ramp-up of development projects,
including Pueblo Viejo 60% j/v and Pascua Lama; and attainment of the company’s operating targets.
Page 11
Metals & MiningGold & Precious Metals January 19, 2012
Allied Gold Limited Income Statement
(US$million)
F.Y.E. Dec 31 Mar-11A Jun-11A Sep-11A Dec-11E Mar-12E Jun-12E Sep-12E Dec-12E 2010A 2011E 2012E 2013E
Revenue 22.0 22.8 54.7 52.4 66.2 71.7 80.0 86.3 75.4 152.0 304.3 443.4
Operating Costs (12.5) (15.8) (42.7) (39.1) (41.5) (41.6) (42.3) (42.7) (50.0) (110.1) (168.1) (200.4)
Depreciation (4.3) (4.9) (10.9) (9.9) (10.0) (10.0) (9.8) (10.1) (14.7) (30.0) (39.8) (45.1)
G&A, Expl, Other (3.8) (5.1) 7.1 (5.0) (3.6) (3.8) (4.0) (4.1) (10.1) (6.8) (15.5) (35.5)
EBIT 1.4 (3.0) 8.2 (1.6) 11.2 16.3 24.0 29.4 0.5 5.1 80.9 162.5
Net Interest (0.7) (0.4) (1.5) (1.1) (2.1) (2.1) (2.1) (2.1) 1.8 (3.7) (8.3) (5.7)
Unusual/Other Items 0.9 (1.2) (2.9) (1.5) (1.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 43.0 (4.8) (1.0) 0.0
Pretax Profit 1.5 (4.6) 3.8 (4.2) 8.1 14.2 21.9 27.4 45.3 (3.4) 71.6 156.8
Tax 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other (0.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (0.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0
Earnings reported 1.5 (4.6) 3.8 (4.2) 8.1 14.2 21.9 27.4 45.3 (3.4) 71.6 156.8
Earnings (Adjusted) 0.7 (3.3) (3.2) (4.2) 8.1 14.2 21.9 27.4 4.6 (10.0) 71.6 156.8
EPS Reported 0.01 (0.02) 0.02 (0.02) 0.04 0.07 0.11 0.14 0.26 (0.02) 0.36 0.78
EPS Adjusted 0.00 (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) 0.04 0.07 0.11 0.14 0.03 (0.05) 0.36 0.78
Gross Operating Margin 43% 31% 22% 25% 37% 42% 47% 50% 34% 28% 45% 55%
Gold price assumptions: 2011 US$1570/oz, 2012 US$1763/oz, 2013 US$2000/oz, and long-term as of 2015 US$1600/oz
Source: Company data, Stifel Nicolaus estimates
Cash Flow Statement
(US$million)
F.Y.E. Dec 31 Mar-11A Jun-11A Sep-11A Dec-11E Mar-12E Jun-12E Sep-12E Dec-12E 2010A 2011E 2012E 2013E
Earnings (adjusted) 0.7 (3.3) (3.2) (4.2) 8.1 14.2 21.9 27.4 4.6 (10.0) 71.6 156.8
Depreciation 4.3 4.9 10.9 9.9 10.0 10.0 9.8 10.1 14.7 30.0 39.8 45.1
Other 0.0 (1.2) (0.2) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (16.0) 3.1 (1.3) (16.0) (32.0)
Operating Cash f low 5.1 0.4 7.5 5.7 18.1 24.2 31.7 21.4 22.5 18.7 95.4 169.9
Working Capital Changes 1.7 6.6 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (26.2) 9.2 0.0 0.0
Cash Flow from Operations 6.8 7.0 8.4 5.7 18.1 24.2 31.7 21.4 (3.7) 27.9 95.4 169.9
Capital Expenditure (21.5) (35.1) (36.1) (31.2) (22.5) (24.8) (24.1) (6.9) (155.7) (123.9) (78.2) (12.4)
Net Investments (1.5) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (4.8) (1.5) 0.0 0.0
Investing Cash Flow (23.0) (35.1) (36.1) (31.2) (22.5) (24.8) (24.1) (6.9) (160.5) (125.4) (78.2) (12.4)
Debt Additions 0.0 4.2 0.0 0.0 80.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 55.6 4.2 80.0 0.0
Debt Repayments (2.6) (1.7) (4.2) (2.1) (53.8) 0.0 0.0 (16.0) (6.2) (10.6) (69.8) (32.0)
Equity Financing 0.0 91.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 91.9 0.0 0.0
Other Net Financing 0.0 (2.8) (0.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 16.0 (6.1) (2.8) 16.0 32.0
Financing Cash Flow (2.6) 91.6 (4.3) (2.1) 26.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 44.1 82.7 26.2 0.0
Foreign Exchange (1.4) 2.7 (2.6) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (0.0) (1.3) 0.0 0.0
Cash Increase (20.2) 66.2 (34.5) (27.6) 21.8 (0.6) 7.6 14.6 (120.2) (16.1) 43.4 157.5
Cash Balance 16.3 83.1 48.5 20.9 42.7 42.1 49.7 64.3 36.5 20.9 64.3 221.8
Free Cash Flow (16.4) (34.7) (28.6) (25.5) (4.4) (0.6) 7.6 14.6 (133.3) (105.2) 17.2 157.5
CFPS (adjusted) 0.03 0.00 0.04 0.03 0.09 0.12 0.16 0.11 0.13 0.10 0.47 0.85
Source: Company data, Stifel Nicolaus estimates
Page 12
Metals & MiningGold & Precious Metals January 19, 2012
Balance Sheet
(US$million)
F.Y.E. Dec 31 Mar-11A Jun-11A Sep-11A Dec-11E Mar-12E Jun-12E Sep-12E Dec-12E 2010A 2011E 2012E 2013E
Current Assets 50.9 142.8 128.3 100.6 122.4 121.9 129.4 144.0 63.4 100.6 144.0 301.5
Other Assets 424.0 501.0 505.6 526.9 539.4 554.2 568.5 565.3 402.2 526.9 565.3 532.6
Total Assets 474.9 643.8 633.9 627.5 661.8 676.0 698.0 709.3 465.6 627.5 709.3 834.1
Current Liabilities 42.9 103.3 87.4 112.5 58.7 58.7 58.7 74.7 27.1 112.5 74.7 74.7
Long Term Debt 34.9 12.4 11.2 (16.0) 64.0 64.0 64.0 32.0 4.5 34.9 64.0 32.0
Other Liabilities 10.0 21.5 22.1 22.1 22.1 22.1 22.1 22.1 48.2 (28.9) (9.9) (9.9)
Total Liabilities 87.8 137.2 120.7 118.6 144.8 144.8 144.8 128.8 79.7 118.6 128.8 96.8
Shareholder's Equity 387.0 506.6 513.2 508.9 517.0 531.3 553.2 580.5 385.8 508.9 580.5 737.3
Shares (End of Period) (mn) 175 200 200 201 201 201 201 201 175 201 201 201
Book Value per Share 2.21 2.54 2.57 2.53 2.57 2.64 2.75 2.89 2.21 2.53 2.89 3.67
Source: Company data, Stifel Nicolaus estimates
Operating Summary
F.Y.E. Dec 31 Mar-11A Jun-11A Sep-11A Dec-11E Mar-12E Jun-12E Sep-12E Dec-12E 2010A 2011E 2012E 2013E
Production (koz)
Simberi Oxide (100.0%), PNG 10.9 18.1 15.9 12.4 17.6 17.8 17.8 18.8 70.0 57.3 72.0 98.6
Gold Ridge (100.0%), Solomon Iss. 1.6 10.2 20.2 18.8 22.5 24.4 26.6 26.6 - 50.8 100.2 123.2
Adjustments/Other - - - - - - - - - - - -
Equity Production 12.4 28.3 36.1 31.2 40.1 42.2 44.5 45.4 70.0 108.0 172.2 221.7
Total Cash Costs (US$/oz)
Simberi Oxide (100.0%), PNG 1,020 860 1,105 1,161 926 903 897 838 666 1,023 890 911
Gold Ridge (100.0%), Solomon Iss. 1,531 1,923 1,182 1,317 1,116 1,047 987 1,013 - 1,392 1,038 898
Total Cash Costs 1,084 1,243 1,148 1,255 1,033 986 951 941 666 1,197 976 904
Capex (US$mn)
Simberi Oxide (100.0%), PNG 3.7 4.3 17.0 21.0 19.1 19.1 20.5 3.3 25.2 46.0 62.0 6.2
Simberi Sulphide (100.0%), PNG 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 6.3 2.0 2.0 -
Gold Ridge (100.0%), Solomon Iss. 16.8 26.8 38.5 9.7 2.9 5.2 3.1 3.1 107.2 91.7 14.3 6.2
Other 0.6 3.5 (19.9) - - - - - 17.0 (15.8) - -
Capex ($mn) 21.5 35.1 36.1 31.2 22.5 24.8 24.1 6.9 155.7 123.9 78.2 12.4
Operating Margin 43% 31% 22% 25% 37% 42% 47% 50% 34% 28% 45% 55%
Source: Company data, Stifel Nicolaus estimates
Page 13
Metals & MiningGold & Precious Metals January 19, 2012
Barrick Gold Corp. Income Statement
(US$million except per share data)
F.Y.E. Dec. 31 Mar-11A Jun-11A Sep-11A Dec-11E Mar-12E Jun-12E Sep-12E Dec-12E 2010A 2011E 2012E 2013E
Revenue 3,090.0 3,426.0 4,007.0 3,684.8 3,850.7 3,986.2 4,185.7 4,622.7 10,924.0 14,207.8 16,645.3 19,796.6
Operating Costs (1,053.0) (1,159.0) (1,354.0) (1,242.0) (1,321.6) (1,340.2) (1,366.9) (1,393.7) (4,201.0) (4,808.0) (5,422.4) (5,975.3)
Depreciation (304.0) (337.0) (376.0) (346.1) (330.4) (348.5) (374.1) (410.6) (1,196.0) (1,363.1) (1,463.7) (1,656.0)
G&A, Expl, Other (237.0) (258.0) (291.0) (188.8) (216.5) (216.5) (217.6) (224.0) (957.0) (974.8) (874.6) (896.6)
EBIT 1,496.0 1,672.0 1,986.0 1,907.9 1,982.1 2,080.9 2,227.1 2,594.4 4,570.0 7,061.9 8,884.5 11,268.6
Net Interest (29.0) (44.0) (49.0) (70.8) (77.5) (77.2) (76.8) (156.8) (107.0) (192.8) (388.2) (588.9)
Unusual/Other Items 41.0 98.0 92.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 124.0 231.0 0.0 0.0
Pretax Profit 1,508.0 1,726.0 2,029.0 1,837.1 1,904.6 2,003.7 2,150.3 2,437.7 4,587.0 7,100.1 8,496.3 10,679.7
Tax (494.0) (550.0) (654.0) (606.2) (628.5) (661.2) (709.6) (804.4) (1,370.0) (2,304.2) (2,803.8) (3,524.3)
Other (13.0) (17.0) (10.0) (23.3) (34.0) (35.6) (38.7) (42.2) 57.0 (63.3) (150.6) (188.4)
Earnings Reported 1,001.0 1,159.0 1,365.0 1,207.6 1,242.1 1,306.9 1,402.0 1,591.0 3,274.0 4,732.6 5,542.0 6,967.0
Earnings (Adjusted) 949.0 1,117.0 1,385.0 1,207.6 1,242.1 1,306.9 1,402.0 1,591.0 3,279.0 4,658.6 5,542.0 6,967.0
EPS Reported 1.00 1.16 1.37 1.21 1.24 1.31 1.40 1.59 3.31 4.74 5.54 6.97
EPS Adjusted 0.95 1.12 1.39 1.21 1.24 1.31 1.40 1.59 3.32 4.66 5.54 6.97
Realized Price (US$) $1,389 $1,513 $1,743 $1,682 $1,650 $1,700 $1,800 $1,900 $1,224 $1,582 $1,764 $2,003
Operating (Gross) Margin 66% 66% 66% 66% 66% 66% 67% 70% 62% 66% 67% 70%
Gold price assumptions: 2011 US$1570/oz, 2012 US$1763/oz, 2013 US$2000/oz, and long-term as of 2015 US$1600/oz
Source: Company data, Stifel Nicolaus estimates
Cash Flow Statement
(US$million except per share data)
F.Y.E. Dec. 31 Mar-11A Jun-11A Sep-11A Dec-11E Mar-12E Jun-12E Sep-12E Dec-12E 2010A 2011E 2012E 2013E
Earnings (adjusted) 949.0 1,117.0 1,385.0 1,207.6 1,242.1 1,306.9 1,402.0 1,591.0 3,279.0 4,658.6 5,542.0 6,967.0
Depreciation 304.0 337.0 376.0 346.1 330.4 348.5 374.1 410.6 1,196.0 1,363.1 1,463.7 1,656.0
Other 225.0 (230.0) 76.0 44.3 58.6 68.3 67.2 68.3 305.0 115.3 262.5 286.0
Operating Cash f low 1,478.0 1,224.0 1,837.0 1,597.9 1,631.1 1,723.7 1,843.4 2,069.9 4,780.0 6,136.9 7,268.1 8,909.0
Working Capital Changes (43.0) (534.0) 52.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (653.0) (525.0) 0.0 0.0
Cash Flow from Operations 1,435.0 690.0 1,889.0 1,597.9 1,631.1 1,723.7 1,843.4 2,069.9 4,127.0 5,611.9 7,268.1 8,909.0
Capital Expenditure (1,071.0) (1,068.0) (1,514.0) (1,753.5) (1,434.3) (1,434.5) (1,263.5) (1,192.6) (3,323.0) (5,406.5) (5,325.0) (4,714.1)
Net Investments 8.0 (7,326.0) (384.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (849.0) (7,702.0) 0.0 0.0
Investing Cash Flow (1,063.0) (8,394.0) (1,898.0) (1,753.5) (1,434.3) (1,434.5) (1,263.5) (1,192.6) (4,172.0) (13,108.5) (5,325.0) (4,714.1)
Debt Additions 159.0 6,500.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 782.0 6,659.0 0.0 0.0
Debt Repayments (2.0) (347.0) (16.0) (8.0) (47.8) (47.8) (47.8) (47.8) (149.0) (373.0) (191.0) (2,076.0)
Equity Financing 21.0 10.0 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,011.0 41.0 0.0 0.0
Other Net Financing (78.0) (48.0) 136.0 (150.0) (150.0) (150.0) (12.5) (150.0) (210.0) (140.0) (462.4) (599.9)
Financing Cash Flow 100.0 6,115.0 130.0 (158.0) (197.7) (197.7) (60.2) (197.7) 1,434.0 6,187.0 (653.4) (2,675.9)
Foreign Exchange 3.0 9.0 (19.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.0 (7.0) 0.0 0.0
Cash Increase 475.0 (1,580.0) 102.0 (313.5) (0.9) 91.4 519.7 679.6 1,404.0 (1,316.5) 1,289.8 1,519.1
Cash Balance 4,443.0 2,863.0 2,965.0 2,651.5 2,650.6 2,742.0 3,261.7 3,941.3 3,968.0 2,651.5 3,941.3 5,460.3
Free Cash Flow 564.0 6,309.0 307.0 (163.6) 149.0 241.4 532.2 829.6 2,090.0 7,016.4 1,752.2 2,118.9
CFPS (adjusted) 1.48 1.23 1.84 1.60 1.63 1.72 1.84 2.07 4.84 6.14 7.27 8.91
Source: Company data, Stifel Nicolaus estimates
Page 14
Metals & MiningGold & Precious Metals January 19, 2012
Balance Sheet
(US$million except per share data)
F.Y.E. Dec. 31 Mar-11A Jun-11A Sep-11A Dec-11E Mar-12E Jun-12E Sep-12E Dec-12E 2010A 2011E 2012E 2013E
Current Assets 7,691.0 6,570.0 6,564.0 6,250.5 6,249.6 6,341.0 6,860.7 7,540.3 7,113.0 6,250.5 7,540.3 9,059.3
Other Assets 28,348.0 38,938.0 40,263.0 41,670.4 42,774.3 43,860.3 44,749.7 45,531.7 26,209.0 41,670.4 45,531.7 48,589.7
Total Assets 36,039.0 45,508.0 46,827.0 47,920.9 49,023.9 50,201.3 51,610.3 53,072.0 33,322.0 47,920.9 53,072.0 57,649.1
Current Liabilities 2,530.0 2,929.0 2,893.0 2,886.0 2,994.8 3,103.5 3,212.3 4,771.0 2,489.0 2,886.0 4,771.0 3,845.0
Long Term Debt 6,772.0 13,229.0 13,185.0 13,184.0 13,027.5 12,871.0 12,714.5 11,108.0 6,678.0 13,184.0 11,108.0 9,958.0
Other Liabilities 6,252.0 7,772.0 8,374.0 8,418.3 8,476.9 8,545.2 8,749.9 8,818.3 5,090.0 8,418.3 8,818.3 9,104.2
Total Liabilities 15,554.0 23,930.0 24,452.0 24,488.3 24,499.2 24,519.7 24,676.7 24,697.3 14,257.0 24,488.3 24,697.3 22,907.2
Shareholder's Equity 20,485.0 21,578.0 22,375.0 23,432.6 24,524.7 25,681.6 26,933.7 28,374.7 19,065.0 23,432.6 28,374.7 34,741.9
Shares (End of Period) (MM) 999.17 999.44 999.80 999.80 999.80 999.80 999.80 999.80 986.25 999.80 999.80 999.80
Book Value per Share 20.50 21.59 22.38 23.44 24.53 25.69 26.94 28.38 19.33 23.44 28.38 34.75
Source: Company data, Stifel Nicolaus estimates
Operating Summary
F.Y.E. Dec. 31 Mar-11A Jun-11A Sep-11A Dec-11E Mar-12E Jun-12E Sep-12E Dec-12E 2010A 2011E 2012E 2013E
Production (koz)
North America (100.0%) 862.0 923.0 836.0 741.2 844.6 844.6 860.1 956.3 3,110.0 3,362.2 3,505.5 4,123.8
South America (100.0%) 498.0 453.0 475.0 487.5 468.8 468.8 468.8 468.8 2,120.0 1,913.5 1,875.4 1,663.5
Australia Pacif ic (100.0%) 459.0 463.0 472.0 488.2 468.8 468.8 468.8 468.8 1,961.0 1,882.2 1,875.3 1,784.2
Africa (73.9%) 129.0 127.0 135.0 118.3 143.5 143.5 143.5 143.5 564.0 509.3 574.0 586.8
Other 12.0 11.0 10.0 - - - - - 33.0 33.0 - -
Equity Production 1,960.0 1,977.0 1,928.0 1,835.1 1,925.8 1,925.8 1,941.3 2,037.5 7,788.0 7,700.1 7,830.3 8,158.2
Total Cash Costs (US$/oz)
North America (100.0%) $396 $404 $415 $485 $512 $518 $519 $482 $489 $423 $507 $495
South America (100.0%) $340 $373 $358 $377 $379 $383 $385 $386 $241 $362 $383 $461
Australia Pacif ic (100.0%) $585 $611 $609 $626 $672 $681 $691 $702 $616 $608 $687 $778
Africa (73.9%) $658 $652 $687 $732 $621 $625 $646 $653 $649 $681 $636 $656
Total Cash Costs $437 $445 $453 $509 $527 $533 $538 $522 $457 $460 $530 $562
Capex ($mn)
North America (100.0%) 194.0 195.3 364.6 740.6 432.6 432.6 368.1 377.8 1,000.1 1,494.5 1,611.1 1,172.2
South America (100.0%) 296.0 317.0 416.0 555.2 578.5 578.5 538.5 538.5 1,065.3 1,584.2 2,234.1 2,753.5
Australia Pacif ic (100.0%) 70.0 32.0 209.7 282.5 288.4 288.4 221.5 221.5 284.0 594.2 1,019.8 564.2
Africa (73.9%) 47.0 30.0 84.0 47.3 21.5 21.5 21.5 21.5 129.4 208.3 86.1 88.0
Other 464.0 493.7 439.7 127.9 113.4 113.6 113.8 33.2 844.2 1,525.3 373.9 136.1
Capex ($mn) 1,071.0 1,068.0 1,514.0 1,753.5 1,434.3 1,434.5 1,263.5 1,192.6 3,323.0 5,406.5 5,325.0 4,714.1
Source: Company data, Stifel Nicolaus estimates
Page 15
Metals & MiningGold & Precious Metals January 19, 2012
Centamin Egypt Ltd. Income Statement
(US$million except per share data)
F.Y.E Dec. 31 Mar-11A Jun-11A Sep-11A Dec-11E Mar-12E Jun-12E Sep-12E Dec-12E 2010A 2011E 2012E 2013E
Revenue 88.7 77.7 89.1 99.2 95.0 97.9 111.2 122.7 124.2 354.7 426.9 750.4
Operating Costs (19.4) (24.6) (25.9) (38.2) (35.8) (36.2) (41.0) (46.4) (48.2) (108.1) (159.5) (277.0)
Depreciation (9.2) (9.5) (18.0) (18.7) (13.1) (14.7) (17.5) (19.3) (32.8) (55.4) (64.5) (108.1)
G&A, Expl, Other (5.0) 0.7 0.6 (2.5) (2.5) (2.5) (2.5) (2.5) 5.4 (6.2) (10.0) (10.0)
EBIT 55.1 44.3 45.7 39.8 43.6 44.5 50.2 54.5 48.6 185.0 192.8 355.4
Net Interest 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.0 0.5 2.1
Unusual/Other Items 0.8 3.6 (2.5) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8 1.8 0.0 0.0
Pretax Profit 56.1 48.2 43.4 40.0 43.8 44.6 50.4 54.6 50.5 187.7 193.4 357.5
Tax 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Minority Interest 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (78.1)
Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Earnings reported 56.1 48.2 43.4 40.0 43.8 44.6 50.4 54.6 50.5 187.7 193.4 279.4
Earnings (Adjusted) 56.1 48.2 43.4 40.0 43.8 44.6 50.4 54.6 50.5 187.7 193.4 279.4
EPS Reported 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.17 0.18 0.26
EPS Adjusted 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.17 0.18 0.26
Gold price assumptions: 2011 US$1570/oz, 2012 US$1763/oz, 2013 US$2000/oz, and long-term as of 2015 US$1600/oz
Source: Company data, Stifel Nicolaus estimates
Cash Flow Statement
(US$million except per share data)
F.Y.E Dec. 31 Mar-11A Jun-11A Sep-11A Dec-11E Mar-12E Jun-12E Sep-12E Dec-12E 2010A 2011E 2012E 2013E
Earnings (adjusted) 56.1 48.2 43.4 40.0 43.8 44.6 50.4 54.6 50.5 187.7 193.4 279.4
Depreciation 9.2 9.5 18.0 18.7 13.1 14.7 17.5 19.3 32.8 55.4 64.5 108.1
Other (26.6) (30.6) 1.1 (0.4) 0.1 0.1 (2.3) (3.3) (33.8) (56.5) (5.3) (24.8)
Operating Cash f low 38.7 27.2 62.5 58.3 57.0 59.4 65.6 70.6 49.6 186.6 252.6 362.7
Working Capital Changes 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cash Flow from Operations 38.7 27.2 62.5 58.3 57.0 59.4 65.6 70.6 49.6 186.6 252.6 362.7
Capital Expenditure (32.5) (32.9) (37.7) (72.3) (54.3) (79.3) (79.6) (54.8) (47.9) (175.4) (268.1) (28.0)
Net Investments (11.8) 0.0 (15.3) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (15.2) (27.1) 0.0 0.0
Investing Cash Flow (44.3) (32.9) (53.0) (72.3) (54.3) (79.3) (79.6) (54.8) (63.1) (202.5) (268.1) (28.0)
Debt Additions 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Debt Repayments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Equity Financing (0.1) 1.4 6.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 134.8 8.2 0.0 0.0
Other Net Financing (0.3) (0.0) 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.7 0.8 0.0 0.0
Financing Cash Flow (0.4) 1.4 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 142.5 9.0 0.0 0.0
Foreign Exchange 0.8 1.4 (3.6) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7 (1.4) 0.0 0.0
Cash Increase (5.2) (3.0) 13.9 (14.0) 2.7 (19.9) (14.1) 15.8 130.7 (8.2) (15.5) 334.7
Cash Balance 149.2 146.2 160.3 146.3 148.9 129.1 115.0 130.8 154.3 146.3 130.8 465.5
Free Cash Flow 6.1 (5.7) 24.8 (14.0) 2.7 (19.9) (14.1) 15.8 1.7 11.3 (15.5) 334.7
CFPS (adjusted) 0.04 0.02 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.05 0.17 0.23 0.33
Source: Company data, Stifel Nicolaus estimates
Page 16
Metals & MiningGold & Precious Metals January 19, 2012
Balance Sheet
(US$million except per share data)
F.Y.E Dec. 31 Mar-11A Jun-11A Sep-11A Dec-11E Mar-12E Jun-12E Sep-12E Dec-12E 2010A 2011E 2012E 2013E
Current Assets 222.1 252.9 267.2 253.2 255.9 236.0 221.9 237.7 191.1 253.2 237.7 572.4
Other Assets 468.9 495.6 529.8 583.8 624.9 689.4 753.8 792.6 447.9 583.8 792.6 737.3
Total Assets 691.0 748.6 797.0 837.0 880.8 925.4 975.8 1,030.4 639.0 837.0 1,030.4 1,309.8
Current Liabilities 13.3 21.7 19.1 19.1 19.1 19.1 19.1 19.1 16.3 19.1 19.1 19.1
Long Term Debt 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other Liabilities 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6
Total Liabilities 15.9 24.3 21.7 21.7 21.7 21.7 21.7 21.7 19.0 21.7 21.7 21.7
Shareholder's Equity 675.1 724.2 775.3 815.3 859.1 903.7 954.1 1,008.7 620.0 815.3 1,008.7 1,288.1
Shares (End of Period) (mn) 1,090.91 1,091.86 1,095.16 1,095.30 1,095.30 1,095.30 1,095.30 1,095.30 1,081.95 1,095.30 1,095.30 1,095.30
Book Value per Share 0.62 0.66 0.71 0.74 0.78 0.83 0.87 0.92 0.57 0.74 0.92 1.18
Source: Company data, Stifel Nicolaus estimates
Operating Summary
F.Y.E Dec. 31 Mar-11A Jun-11A Sep-11A Dec-11E Mar-12E Jun-12E Sep-12E Dec-12E 2010A 2011E 2012E 2013E
Production (koz)
Sukari (100%*), Egypt 45.2 48.0 50.5 59.0 57.6 57.6 61.8 64.6 150.3 202.7 241.6 373.6
Adjustments - - - - - - - - - - - -
Equity Production 45.2 48.0 50.5 59.0 57.6 57.6 61.8 64.6 150.3 202.7 241.6 373.6
Total Cash Costs (US$/oz)
Sukari (100%*), Egypt 567 651 686 647 622 629 664 718 555 640 660 741
Total Cash Costs 567 651 686 647 622 629 664 718 555 640 660 741
Capex ($mn) $32.5 $32.9 $37.7 $72.3 $54.3 $79.3 $79.6 $54.8 $51.7 $175.4 $268.1 $28.0
Source: Company data, Stifel Nicolaus estimates
Page 17
Metals & MiningGold & Precious Metals January 19, 2012
Chalice Gold Mines Ltd. Income Statement
(A$mn except per share data)
F.Y.E. June 30 Mar-11A Jun-11A Sep-11A Dec-11E Mar-12E Jun-12E Sep-12E Dec-12E 2010A 2011E 2012E 2013E
Revenue 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Operating Costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Depreciation 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
G&A, Expl, Other (2.5) (1.0) (0.9) (0.5) (0.5) (0.5) (0.5) (0.5) (4.2) (5.9) (2.4) (2.0)
EBIT (2.5) (1.0) (0.9) (0.5) (0.5) (0.5) (0.5) (0.5) (4.2) (5.9) (2.4) (2.0)
Net Interest 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5 0.1 0.6
Unusual/Other Items 0.0 (0.0) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (1.3) (0.0) 0.1 0.0
Pretax Profit (2.4) (1.0) (0.8) (0.5) (0.5) (0.5) (0.4) (0.4) (5.5) (5.4) (2.2) (1.4)
Tax 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (0.0) 0.0 0.0
Earnings reported (2.4) (1.0) (0.8) (0.5) (0.5) (0.5) (0.4) (0.4) (3.4) (5.5) (2.2) (1.4)
Earnings (Adjusted) (2.4) (1.0) (0.8) (0.5) (0.5) (0.5) (0.4) (0.4) (3.4) (5.5) (2.2) (1.4)
EPS Reported (0.01) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.03) (0.03) (0.01) (0.01)
EPS Adjusted (0.01) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.03) (0.03) (0.01) (0.01)
Gross Operating Margin 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Gold price assumptions: 2011 US$1372/oz, 2012 US$1684/oz, 2013 US$1888/oz, and long-term as of 2015 US$1663/oz
Source: Company data, Stifel Nicolaus estimates
Cash Flow Statement
(A$mn except per share data)
F.Y.E. June 30 Mar-11A Jun-11A Sep-11A Dec-11E Mar-12E Jun-12E Sep-12E Dec-12E 2010A 2011E 2012E 2013E
Earnings (adjusted) (2.4) (1.0) (0.8) (0.5) (0.5) (0.5) (0.4) (0.4) (3.4) (5.5) (2.2) (1.4)
Depreciation 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (21.1) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (0.8) 0.0 (21.1) 0.0
Operating Cash f low (2.4) (1.0) (0.8) (0.5) (21.6) (0.5) (0.4) (0.4) (4.2) (5.4) (23.3) (1.4)
Working Capital Changes 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 2.2 0.1 0.0
Cash Flow from Operations (0.9) (0.7) (0.7) (0.5) (21.6) (0.5) (0.4) (0.4) (2.6) (3.3) (23.2) (1.4)
Capital Expenditure (2.8) (2.3) (2.7) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (20.8) (12.8) (2.7) 0.0
Net Investments (0.2) (1.1) (0.2) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 (4.3) (0.2) 0.0
Investing Cash Flow (3.0) (3.4) (2.9) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (18.8) (17.1) (2.9) 0.0
Debt Additions 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Debt Repayments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Equity Financing 1.8 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 23.5 0.0 0.0
Other Net Financing 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 34.0 90.0 0.0 0.0 19.5 (0.5) 124.0 0.0
Financing Cash Flow 1.8 9.1 0.0 0.0 34.0 90.0 0.0 0.0 19.5 22.9 124.0 0.0
Foreign Exchange (0.0) 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (0.0) 0.1 0.0
Cash Increase (2.1) 5.0 (3.5) (0.5) 12.4 89.5 (0.4) (0.4) (1.9) 2.5 98.0 (1.4)
Cash Balance 5.2 10.2 6.7 6.2 18.7 108.2 107.8 107.4 7.7 10.2 108.2 106.8
Free Cash Flow (5.2) (3.3) (3.5) (0.5) (21.6) (0.5) (0.4) (0.4) (25.0) (18.3) (26.0) (1.4)
CFPS (adjusted) (0.01) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.09) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.03) (0.03) (0.09) (0.01)
Source: Company data, Stifel Nicolaus estimates
Page 18
Metals & MiningGold & Precious Metals January 19, 2012
Balance Sheet
(A$mn except per share data)
F.Y.E. June 30 Mar-11A Jun-11A Sep-11A Dec-11E Mar-12E Jun-12E Sep-12E Dec-12E 2010A 2011E 2012E 2013E
Current Assets 5.5 10.7 7.2 6.7 19.2 108.7 108.3 107.9 8.0 10.7 108.7 107.3
Other Assets 37.9 38.9 41.6 41.6 41.6 41.6 41.6 41.6 29.2 38.9 41.6 41.6
Total Assets 43.5 49.6 48.9 48.4 60.8 150.3 149.9 149.5 37.2 49.6 150.3 148.9
Current Liabilities 2.3 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 2.6 1.1 1.1 1.1
Long Term Debt 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other Liabilities 1.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 13.0 103.0 103.0 103.0 0.0 0.0 103.0 103.0
Total Liabilities 3.6 1.2 1.2 1.2 14.1 104.1 104.1 104.1 2.7 1.2 104.1 104.1
Shareholder's Equity 39.9 48.4 47.7 47.2 46.7 46.2 45.8 45.4 34.5 48.4 46.2 44.8
Shares (End of Period) (mn) 218.00 250.03 250.03 250.03 250.03 250.03 250.03 250.03 181.03 250.03 250.03 250.03
Book Value per Share 0.18 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.19 0.19 0.18 0.18
Source: Company data, Stifel Nicolaus estimates
Operating Summary
F.Y.E. June 30 Mar-11A Jun-11A Sep-11A Dec-11E Mar-12E Jun-12E Sep-12E Dec-12E 2010A 2011E 2012E 2013E
Production (koz)
Koka (60.0%), Eritrea - - - - - - - - - - - -
Adjustments/Other - - - - - - - - - - - -
Equity Production - - - - - - - - - - - -
Total Cash Costs (US$/oz)
Koka (60.0%), Eritrea - - - - - - - - - - - -
Total Cash Costs - - - - - - - - - - - -
Capex ($mn)
Koka (60.0%), Eritrea 2.8 2.4 2.9 - - - - - 27.1 12.3 2.9 -
Other (0.0) (0.1) (0.1) - - - - - (6.3) 0.5 (0.1) -
Capex ($mn) 2.8 2.3 2.7 - - - - - 20.8 12.8 2.7 -
Operating Margin (%)
Koka (60.0%), Eritrea - - - - - - - - - - - -
Other - - - - - - - - - - - -
Operating Margin 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Source: Company data, Stifel Nicolaus estimates
Page 19
Metals & MiningGold & Precious Metals January 19, 2012
Dundee Precious Metals Inc. Income Statement
(US$mm except per share data)
F.Y.E. Dec. 31 Mar-11A Jun-11A Sep-11A Dec-11E Mar-12E Jun-12E Sep-12E Dec-12E 2010A 2011E 2012E 2013E
Revenue 68.4 69.1 112.5 97.3 103.9 107.0 115.2 135.2 201.8 347.3 461.3 558.1
Operating Costs (41.3) (43.7) (53.5) (41.1) (41.4) (41.5) (42.4) (46.2) (136.0) (179.5) (171.5) (194.9)
Depreciation (5.3) (6.8) (8.2) (8.3) (9.9) (10.7) (12.1) (14.8) (17.4) (28.6) (47.5) (64.1)
G&A, Expl, Other (8.9) (11.3) (16.9) (16.1) (16.1) (16.1) (17.3) (18.4) (28.2) (53.1) (68.0) (74.2)
EBIT 12.9 7.3 34.0 31.8 36.5 38.7 43.4 55.7 20.2 86.1 174.3 224.9
Net Interest (2.2) (1.0) (1.0) (0.6) (0.7) (0.7) (0.7) (0.7) (1.7) (4.8) (2.7) (1.3)
Unusual/Other Items 5.0 3.0 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (7.8) 22.0 0.0 0.0
Pretax Profit 15.7 9.3 47.0 31.2 35.9 38.0 42.7 55.0 10.8 103.2 171.7 223.6
Tax (3.3) (2.9) (10.9) (7.2) (8.3) (8.7) (9.8) (12.7) 9.5 (24.2) (39.5) (51.4)
Other 1.6 2.7 4.2 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 1.7 12.5 16.0 16.0
Earnings reported 14.0 9.1 40.3 28.1 31.6 33.3 36.9 46.4 22.0 91.5 148.2 188.2
Earnings (Adjusted) 10.1 7.0 29.5 28.1 31.6 33.3 36.9 46.4 25.8 74.7 148.2 188.2
EPS Reported 0.11 0.07 0.32 0.22 0.25 0.27 0.29 0.37 0.09 0.73 1.18 1.50
EPS Adjusted 0.08 0.06 0.24 0.22 0.25 0.27 0.29 0.37 0.20 0.60 1.18 1.50
Gross Operating Margin 40% 37% 52% 58% 60% 61% 63% 66% 33% 48% 63% 65%
Gold price assumptions: 2011 US$1570/oz, 2012 US$1763/oz, 2013 US$2000/oz, and long-term as of 2015 US$1600/oz
Source: Company reports, Stifel Nicolaus estimates
Cash Flow Statement
(US$mm except per share data)
F.Y.E. Dec. 31 Mar-11A Jun-11A Sep-11A Dec-11E Mar-12E Jun-12E Sep-12E Dec-12E 2010A 2011E 2012E 2013E
Earnings (adjusted) 10.1 7.0 29.5 28.1 31.6 33.3 36.9 46.4 25.8 74.7 148.2 188.2
Depreciation 5.3 6.8 8.2 8.3 9.9 10.7 12.1 14.8 17.4 28.6 47.5 64.1
Other 6.5 3.2 4.7 (1.1) (1.2) (1.1) (0.9) 0.6 11.8 13.2 (2.6) 3.0
Operating Cash f low 21.9 17.0 42.4 35.2 40.3 42.8 48.1 61.8 55.1 116.5 193.1 255.2
Working Capital Changes (4.4) (3.3) 1.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (4.8) (6.0) 0.0 0.0
Cash Flow from Operations 17.5 13.7 44.1 35.2 40.3 42.8 48.1 61.8 50.3 110.5 193.1 255.2
Capital Expenditure (21.3) (25.6) (38.5) (52.7) (51.6) (46.6) (46.6) (32.1) (79.7) (138.2) (176.9) (112.5)
Net Investments 8.0 2.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.9 15.0 0.0 0.0
Investing Cash Flow (13.3) (23.6) (33.6) (52.7) (51.6) (46.6) (46.6) (32.1) (67.9) (123.3) (176.9) (112.5)
Debt Additions 22.0 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 27.1 36.2 0.0 0.0
Debt Repayments 0.0 (1.4) (1.3) (0.4) (0.4) (1.8) 0.0 0.0 (6.1) (3.2) (2.2) (24.3)
Equity Financing 16.1 0.4 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 62.1 17.0 0.0 0.0
Other Net Financing (2.1) (0.8) 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (0.0) 7.9 0.0 0.0
Financing Cash Flow 36.0 12.4 9.9 (0.4) (0.4) (1.8) 0.0 0.0 83.0 57.9 (2.2) (24.3)
Foreign Exchange 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cash Increase 40.2 2.5 20.5 (17.9) (11.7) (5.6) 1.5 29.7 65.5 45.2 14.0 118.3
Cash Balance 136.4 138.8 159.3 141.4 129.7 124.1 125.6 155.4 96.2 141.4 155.4 273.7
Free Cash Flow 0.6 (8.6) 3.8 (17.5) (11.3) (3.8) 1.5 29.7 (24.6) (21.7) 16.2 142.7
CFPS (adjusted) 0.18 0.14 0.34 0.28 0.32 0.34 0.38 0.49 0.45 0.93 1.54 2.04
Source: Company reports, Stifel Nicolaus estimates
Page 20
Metals & MiningGold & Precious Metals January 19, 2012
Balance Sheet
(US$mm except per share data)
F.Y.E. Dec. 31 Mar-11A Jun-11A Sep-11A Dec-11E Mar-12E Jun-12E Sep-12E Dec-12E 2010A 2011E 2012E 2013E
Current Assets 216.4 245.1 276.7 258.8 247.1 241.5 243.0 272.8 182.4 258.8 272.8 391.1
Other Assets 661.8 664.5 617.4 661.9 703.6 739.5 774.0 791.2 631.0 661.9 791.2 839.7
Total Assets 878.3 909.6 894.1 920.6 950.7 981.0 1,017.0 1,064.0 813.4 920.6 1,064.0 1,230.8
Current Liabilities 43.3 51.4 51.0 51.7 51.3 57.6 65.7 73.8 42.7 51.7 73.8 81.9
Long Term Debt 68.5 82.4 82.1 81.0 81.0 72.9 64.8 56.7 17.9 68.5 81.0 48.6
Other Liabilities 107.2 104.7 98.0 96.9 95.7 94.6 93.7 94.3 108.1 109.5 70.0 72.9
Total Liabilities 219.0 238.5 231.1 229.6 228.0 225.1 224.2 224.8 168.7 229.6 224.8 203.4
Shareholder's Equity 659.3 671.1 663.0 691.0 722.7 756.0 792.8 839.2 644.6 691.0 839.2 1,027.4
Shares (End of Period) (mm) 124.91 125.06 125.23 125.23 125.23 125.23 125.23 125.23 125.11 125.23 125.23 125.23
Book Value per Share 5.28 5.37 5.29 5.52 5.77 6.04 6.33 6.70 5.15 5.52 6.70 8.20
Source: Company reports, Stifel Nicolaus estimates
Operating Summary
F.Y.E. Dec. 31 Mar-11A Jun-11A Sep-11A Dec-11E Mar-12E Jun-12E Sep-12E Dec-12E 2010A 2011E 2012E 2013E
Production (koz)
Chelopech (100.0%), Bulgaria 15.3 16.3 25.1 24.8 24.7 24.7 28.0 31.0 58.1 81.5 108.4 128.0
Deno Gold / Kapan (100.0%), Armenia 6.3 6.6 9.1 5.1 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 21.2 27.0 32.0 29.3
Krumovgrad (100.0%), Bulgaria - - - - - - - - - - - -
Adjustments/Other - - - - - - - - - - - -
Equity Production 21.6 22.9 34.1 30.0 32.7 32.7 36.0 39.0 79.2 108.5 140.4 157.4
Total Cash Costs (US$/oz)
Chelopech (100.0%), Bulgaria 671 903 758 820 725 709 725 709 754 789 717 740
Deno Gold / Kapan (100.0%), Armenia 887 906 785 1,107 956 973 1,015 1,051 875 899 999 1,126
Krumovgrad (100.0%), Bulgaria - - - - - - - - - - - -
Total Cash Costs 734 904 765 869 782 774 789 779 786 817 781 812
Capex ($mm)
Chelopech (100.0%), Bulgaria 13.4 14.0 26.9 24.0 23.7 23.7 9.2 9.7 47.5 78.3 66.3 19.2
Deno Gold / Kapan (100.0%), Armenia 2.2 3.2 4.4 12.5 10.4 5.4 2.4 2.4 17.9 22.3 20.6 8.8
NCS / Tsumeb Smelter (100.0%), Namibia 4.9 7.7 6.4 11.2 15.0 15.0 32.5 17.5 8.8 30.3 80.0 9.5
Krumovgrad (100.0%), Bulgaria - - - - - - - - - - - 25.0
Other 0.8 0.8 0.8 5.0 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 5.5 7.4 10.0 50.0
Capex ($mm) 21.3 25.6 38.5 52.7 51.6 46.6 46.6 32.1 79.7 138.2 176.9 112.5
Operating Margin (%)
Chelopech (100.0%), Bulgaria 76% 68% 77% 75% 78% 79% 81% 83% 65% 74% 81% 82%
Deno Gold / Kapan (100.0%), Armenia 45% 47% 61% 43% 53% 54% 54% 55% 33% 51% 54% 54%
NCS / Tsumeb Smelter (100.0%), Namibia 13% -1% 28% 28% 27% 26% 13% 27% -4% 19% 24% 29%
Krumovgrad (100.0%), Bulgaria 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Operating Margin 40% 37% 52% 58% 60% 61% 63% 66% 33% 48% 63% 65%
Source: Company reports, Stifel Nicolaus estimates
Page 21
Metals & MiningGold & Precious Metals January 19, 2012
Eldorado Gold Corp. Income Statement
(US$million except per share data)
F.Y.E. Dec. 31 Mar-11A Jun-11A Sep-11A Dec-11E Mar-12E Jun-12E Sep-12E Dec-12E 2010A 2011E 2012E 2013E
Revenue 218.1 251.4 326.1 304.5 307.9 321.8 356.6 396.8 791.2 1,100.1 1,383.1 1,915.1
Operating Costs (74.3) (81.4) (95.0) (92.8) (92.8) (99.5) (99.1) (106.1) (282.5) (343.6) (397.5) (536.9)
Depreciation (31.2) (29.8) (30.0) (31.3) (30.1) (33.3) (32.3) (33.3) (106.8) (122.3) (129.0) (185.1)
G&A, Expl, Other (33.0) (23.5) (22.5) (23.7) (22.0) (22.4) (23.5) (24.9) (87.4) (102.8) (92.8) (111.2)
EBIT 79.5 116.7 178.6 156.7 163.0 166.6 201.6 232.5 314.5 531.4 763.8 1,081.9
Net Interest (1.6) (1.5) (2.3) (1.1) (1.2) (0.6) (0.4) (0.0) 3.3 (6.6) (2.1) 6.2
Unusual/Other Items 1.4 3.4 (2.5) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (8.8) 2.3 0.0 0.0
Pretax Profit 79.3 118.6 173.8 155.5 161.8 166.0 201.2 232.5 308.9 527.2 761.6 1,088.1
Tax (20.6) (36.8) (63.1) (52.9) (55.0) (56.5) (68.4) (79.1) (89.2) (173.4) (259.0) (370.0)
Other (6.2) (6.9) (8.3) (6.2) (4.8) (4.9) (7.7) (10.6) (14.1) (27.6) (28.0) (80.0)
Earnings reported 52.5 74.9 102.5 96.4 102.0 104.7 125.1 142.9 205.7 326.2 474.7 638.2
Earnings (Adjusted) 52.5 73.2 106.6 96.4 102.0 104.7 125.1 142.9 211.4 328.8 474.7 638.2
EPS Reported 0.10 0.14 0.19 0.17 0.18 0.19 0.23 0.26 0.38 0.59 0.86 1.16
EPS Adjusted 0.10 0.13 0.19 0.17 0.18 0.19 0.23 0.26 0.39 0.60 0.86 1.16
Gross Operating Margin 66% 68% 71% 70% 70% 69% 72% 73% 64% 69% 71% 72%
Gold price assumptions: 2011 US$1570/oz, 2012 US$1763/oz, 2013 US$2000/oz, and long-term as of 2015 US$1600/oz
Source: Company data, Stifel Nicolaus estimates
Cash Flow Statement
(US$million except per share data)
F.Y.E. Dec. 31 Mar-11A Jun-11A Sep-11A Dec-11E Mar-12E Jun-12E Sep-12E Dec-12E 2010A 2011E 2012E 2013E
Earnings (adjusted) 52.5 73.2 106.6 96.4 102.0 104.7 125.1 142.9 211.4 328.8 474.7 638.2
Depreciation 31.2 29.8 30.0 31.3 30.1 33.3 32.3 33.3 106.8 122.3 129.0 185.1
Other 8.0 12.7 23.1 18.6 20.1 20.4 25.1 28.0 34.0 62.3 93.6 114.8
Operating Cash f low 91.7 115.8 159.7 146.2 152.2 158.4 182.5 204.2 352.2 513.4 697.3 938.1
Working Capital Changes 18.7 (35.0) 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (60.1) (2.4) 0.0 0.0
Cash Flow from Operations 110.4 80.7 173.6 146.2 152.2 158.4 182.5 204.2 292.1 511.0 697.3 938.1
Capital Expenditure (78.3) (47.3) (76.0) (66.2) (61.7) (109.0) (124.6) (110.3) (226.3) (267.8) (405.7) (629.0)
Net Investments (3.4) 0.2 (4.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.1 (7.1) 0.0 0.0
Investing Cash Flow (81.7) (47.0) (80.0) (66.2) (61.7) (109.0) (124.6) (110.3) (221.2) (275.0) (405.7) (629.0)
Debt Additions 1.8 1.4 2.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.8 5.8 0.0 0.0
Debt Repayments (12.9) (31.8) (29.7) (23.4) (23.4) (10.7) (10.7) (10.7) (43.0) (97.9) (55.4) (29.9)
Equity Financing 2.7 5.2 22.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 35.9 30.3 0.0 0.0
Other Net Financing (40.5) 3.0 (37.9) 0.0 49.6 0.0 79.8 0.0 (27.6) (75.4) 129.5 146.2
Financing Cash Flow (48.9) (22.1) (42.7) (23.4) 26.2 (10.7) 69.2 (10.7) (21.9) (137.2) 74.1 116.4
Foreign Exchange 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cash Increase (20.2) 11.5 50.9 56.6 116.7 38.7 127.1 83.2 49.0 98.8 365.7 425.4
Cash Balance 294.1 305.6 356.5 413.2 529.9 568.6 695.6 778.9 314.3 413.2 778.9 1,204.3
Free Cash Flow 0.4 36.7 53.9 56.6 67.1 38.7 47.2 83.2 82.9 147.6 236.2 279.2
CFPS (adjusted) 0.17 0.21 0.29 0.27 0.28 0.29 0.33 0.37 0.65 0.93 1.26 1.70
Source: Company data, Stifel Nicolaus estimates
Page 22
Metals & MiningGold & Precious Metals January 19, 2012
Balance Sheet
(US$million except per share data)
F.Y.E. Dec. 31 Mar-11A Jun-11A Sep-11A Dec-11E Mar-12E Jun-12E Sep-12E Dec-12E 2010A 2011E 2012E 2013E
Current Assets 538.5 559.9 615.2 671.9 788.6 827.3 954.3 1,037.6 563.2 671.9 1,037.6 1,463.0
Other Assets 3,170.1 3,205.6 3,256.3 3,291.2 3,322.8 3,398.5 3,490.8 3,567.8 3,213.0 3,291.2 3,567.8 4,011.7
Total Assets 3,708.6 3,765.5 3,871.5 3,963.0 4,111.4 4,225.8 4,445.1 4,605.4 3,776.2 3,963.0 4,605.4 5,474.7
Current Liabilities 242.1 237.4 253.3 223.0 210.2 206.0 201.7 197.4 247.9 223.0 197.4 163.9
Long Term Debt 63.6 39.0 19.3 26.1 15.5 9.1 2.7 (3.7) 129.6 63.6 15.5 0.0
Other Liabilities 414.4 415.8 431.0 449.6 469.7 490.1 515.2 543.2 431.8 412.1 524.0 658.0
Total Liabilities 720.1 692.3 703.6 698.7 695.4 705.2 719.6 736.9 809.3 698.7 736.9 821.9
Shareholder's Equity 2,988.4 3,073.2 3,167.9 3,264.3 3,416.0 3,520.6 3,725.5 3,868.4 2,966.9 3,264.3 3,868.4 4,652.8
Shares (End of Period) (mn) 548.50 549.09 551.51 551.51 551.51 551.51 551.51 551.51 551.51 551.51 551.51 551.51
Book Value per Share 5.45 5.60 5.74 5.92 6.19 6.38 6.76 7.01 5.38 5.92 7.01 8.44
Source: Company data, Stifel Nicolaus estimates
Operating Summary
F.Y.E. Dec. 31 Mar-11A Jun-11A Sep-11A Dec-11E Mar-12E Jun-12E Sep-12E Dec-12E 2010A 2011E 2012E 2013E
Production (koz)
Kisladag (100.0%), Turkey 50.8 66.7 86.8 80.3 77.4 71.4 72.7 70.7 274.6 284.6 292.1 275.9
Tanjianshan (90.0%), China 25.6 28.8 24.2 24.8 23.8 23.8 23.8 23.8 102.5 103.5 95.2 102.2
Efemçukuru (100.0%), Turkey - - - 0.5 22.3 31.2 35.3 33.7 - 0.5 122.4 134.5
Jinfeng (82.0%), China 39.8 38.0 36.2 31.7 23.4 25.4 18.6 20.0 157.7 145.8 87.4 152.0
White Mountain (95.0%), China 19.7 16.5 20.2 20.8 20.2 17.9 17.9 17.9 59.0 77.2 74.0 81.7
Eastern Dragon (95.0%), China - - - - - - 8.8 19.8 - - 28.6 90.1
Equity Production 136.0 150.0 167.5 158.1 167.0 169.7 177.1 185.9 593.8 611.6 699.7 836.4
Consolidated Production 148.6 162.4 179.2 168.9 175.9 178.9 188.3 199.5 632.5 659.1 742.6 926.8
Total Cash Costs (US$/oz)
Kisladag (100.0%), Turkey 408 411 401 385 386 421 421 439 339 400 416 464
Tanjianshan (90.0%), China 515 596 541 557 545 555 568 581 484 554 562 588
Efemçukuru (100.0%), Turkey - - - 634 412 361 363 381 - 634 376 411
Jinfeng (82.0%), China 482 457 509 590 674 727 750 865 477 506 749 714
White Mountain (95.0%), China 475 564 519 521 528 601 615 629 522 518 591 674
Eastern Dragon (95.0%), China - - - - - - 380 313 - - 334 337
Total Cash Costs 462 477 477 472 469 494 481 497 423 472 486 523
Cash Costs (Before Royalties) 410 397 397 418 416 439 424 436 382 405 429 457
Capex ($mn)
Kisladag (100.0%), Turkey 20.3 8.8 8.0 14.9 9.1 55.5 55.6 55.5 54.9 52.0 175.7 203.5
Tanjianshan (90.0%), China 2.0 1.2 1.7 2.8 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 15.4 7.7 9.3 5.1
Efemçukuru (100.0%), Turkey 32.0 14.8 31.5 15.0 7.2 7.8 8.1 8.0 64.3 93.3 31.2 40.1
Jinfeng (82.0%), China - 4.6 6.6 10.7 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.8 15.7 21.9 31.2 -
White Mountain (95.0%), China 2.0 4.9 5.9 3.8 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 15.8 16.5 12.4 19.0
Eastern Dragon (95.0%), China 3.5 1.9 8.3 4.8 14.3 14.3 14.3 - 21.9 18.4 42.8 -
Perama Hill (100.0%), Greece 0.7 0.7 0.6 1.0 1.0 1.0 24.8 24.8 1.3 3.0 51.7 99.4
Tocantinzinho (75.0%), Brazil 3.1 4.2 8.7 - - - - - 36.2 16.0 - 232.3
Vila Nova (100.0%), Brazil 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 - 0.9 10.2 1.7
Capex ($mn) 78.3 47.3 76.0 66.2 61.7 109.0 124.6 110.3 226.3 267.8 405.7 629.0
Source: Company data, Stifel Nicolaus estimates
Page 23
Metals & MiningGold & Precious Metals January 19, 2012
European Goldfields Ltd. Income Statement
(US$million except per share data)
F.Y.E. Dec. 31 Mar-11A Jun-11A Sep-11A Dec-11E Mar-12E Jun-12E Sep-12E Dec-12E 2010A 2011E 2012E 2013E
Revenue 13.5 11.1 16.0 8.7 9.4 18.8 22.4 29.0 49.9 49.4 79.5 149.9
Operating Costs (9.3) (7.4) (9.8) (9.7) (9.6) (15.2) (17.1) (21.2) (37.6) (36.1) (63.0) (101.6)
Depreciation (1.4) (0.9) (1.5) (1.5) (1.5) (2.7) (3.1) (4.0) (7.5) (5.3) (11.4) (18.2)
G&A, Expl, Other (11.1) (11.6) (12.0) (10.0) (12.0) (12.4) (12.4) (12.7) (44.4) (44.7) (49.4) (51.5)
EBIT (8.3) (8.8) (7.2) (12.5) (13.6) (11.5) (10.2) (8.9) (39.6) (36.7) (44.2) (21.5)
Net Interest 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.3 0.2 2.9 3.6
Unusual/Other Items 3.3 (6.5) (2.7) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (3.3) (5.9) 0.0 0.0
Pretax Profit (4.9) (15.2) (9.8) (12.4) (13.6) (10.6) (9.3) (7.9) (42.6) (42.4) (41.4) (17.8)
Tax 2.4 (0.1) (1.3) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (0.6) 0.9 0.0 0.0
Other (0.0) 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Earnings reported (2.6) (15.3) (11.0) (12.4) (13.6) (10.6) (9.3) (7.9) (42.8) (41.4) (41.4) (17.8)
Earnings (Adjusted) (5.9) (8.8) (8.0) (12.4) (13.6) (10.6) (9.3) (7.9) (36.8) (35.2) (41.4) (17.8)
EPS Reported (0.01) (0.08) (0.06) (0.07) (0.07) (0.06) (0.05) (0.04) (0.23) (0.23) (0.22) (0.10)
EPS Adjusted (0.03) (0.05) (0.04) (0.07) (0.07) (0.06) (0.05) (0.04) (0.20) (0.19) (0.22) (0.10)
Gross Operating Margin 31% 34% 39% -11% -2% 19% 24% 27% 25% 27% 21% 32%
Gold price assumptions: 2011 US$1570/oz, 2012 US$1763/oz, 2013 US$2000/oz, and long-term as of 2015 US$1600/oz
Copper price assumptions: 2011 US$4.00/lb, 2012 US$3.88/lb, and 2013 US$4.00/lb
Source: Company data, Stifel Nicolaus estimates
Cash Flow Statement
(US$million except per share data)
F.Y.E. Dec. 31 Mar-11A Jun-11A Sep-11A Dec-11E Mar-12E Jun-12E Sep-12E Dec-12E 2010A 2011E 2012E 2013E
Earnings (adjusted) (5.9) (8.8) (8.0) (12.4) (13.6) (10.6) (9.3) (7.9) (36.8) (35.2) (41.4) (17.8)
Depreciation 1.4 0.9 1.5 1.5 1.5 2.7 3.1 4.0 7.5 5.3 11.4 18.2
Other 3.5 4.5 4.7 (1.0) (1.2) (2.2) (2.6) (3.2) 12.1 11.7 (9.2) (16.5)
Operating Cash f low (0.9) (3.4) (1.9) (12.0) (13.3) (10.0) (8.7) (7.1) (17.3) (18.2) (39.2) (16.1)
Working Capital Changes (1.1) (0.0) (4.6) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.3 (5.6) 0.0 0.0
Cash Flow from Operations (2.0) (3.4) (6.5) (12.0) (13.3) (10.0) (8.7) (7.1) (6.0) (23.9) (39.2) (16.1)
Capital Expenditure (11.2) (6.3) (5.8) (12.9) (14.8) (35.2) (35.8) (36.7) (39.0) (36.3) (122.5) (229.8)
Net Investments 11.2 6.3 5.8 12.9 14.8 35.2 35.8 36.7 39.0 36.3 122.5 229.8
Investing Cash Flow 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Debt Additions 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 750.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 750.0 0.0
Debt Repayments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Equity Financing 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other Net Financing 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.7 0.0 0.0 15.0 (21.0) 0.0 14.7 (6.0) 0.0
Financing Cash Flow 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.7 750.0 0.0 15.0 (21.0) 0.3 14.7 744.0 0.0
Foreign Exchange 3.7 1.0 (2.2) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (3.6) 2.5 0.0 0.0
Cash Increase 1.7 (2.4) (8.6) 2.8 736.7 (10.0) 6.3 (28.1) (9.2) (6.7) 704.8 (16.1)
Cash Balance 47.5 38.8 24.3 27.1 763.7 753.8 760.0 731.9 57.1 27.1 731.9 715.8
Free Cash Flow (12.2) (9.8) (7.7) (39.6) (28.2) (45.2) (59.6) (22.8) (56.3) (69.3) (155.7) (245.9)
CFPS (adjusted) (0.01) (0.02) (0.01) (0.07) (0.07) (0.05) (0.05) (0.04) (0.09) (0.10) (0.21) (0.09)
Source: Company data, Stifel Nicolaus estimates
Page 24
Metals & MiningGold & Precious Metals January 19, 2012
Balance Sheet
(US$million except per share data)
F.Y.E. Dec. 31 Mar-11A Jun-11A Sep-11A Dec-11E Mar-12E Jun-12E Sep-12E Dec-12E 2010A 2011E 2012E 2013E
Current Assets 91.0 54.3 43.1 45.9 782.5 772.5 778.8 750.7 96.0 45.9 750.7 734.6
Other Assets 421.8 451.3 455.5 466.9 480.2 512.7 545.5 578.1 622.8 466.9 578.1 789.6
Total Assets 512.7 505.6 498.6 512.8 1,262.8 1,285.3 1,324.3 1,328.8 718.8 512.8 1,328.8 1,524.2
Current Liabilities 20.5 23.2 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 16.4 20.0 20.0 20.0
Long Term Debt 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 750.0 750.0 750.0 750.0 0.0 0.0 750.0 750.0
Other Liabilities 105.4 105.9 105.9 117.8 131.4 164.4 197.7 231.1 152.4 117.8 231.1 444.4
Total Liabilities 125.9 129.1 125.8 137.7 901.3 934.4 967.7 1,001.1 168.8 137.7 1,001.1 1,214.4
Shareholder's Equity 386.9 376.5 372.8 375.1 361.4 350.9 356.6 327.7 550.0 375.1 327.7 309.8
Shares (End of Period) (mn) 183.84 183.84 183.86 183.86 183.86 183.86 183.86 183.86 183.69 183.86 183.86 183.86
Book Value per Share 2.10 2.05 2.03 2.04 1.97 1.91 1.94 1.78 2.99 2.04 1.78 1.69
Source: Company data, Stifel Nicolaus estimates
Operating Summary
F.Y.E. Dec. 31 Mar-11A Jun-11A Sep-11A Dec-11E Mar-12E Jun-12E Sep-12E Dec-12E 2010A 2011E 2012E 2013E
Gold Production (koz)
Skouries (95.0%), Greece - - - - - - - - - - - -
Olympias (95.0%), Greece - - - - - 5.5 6.9 10.4 - - 22.9 55.2
Certej (80.0%), Romania - - - - - - - - - - - -
Adjustments/Other - - - - - - - - - - - -
Equity Production (koz) - - - - - 5.5 6.9 10.4 - - 22.9 55.2
Consolidated Production - - - - - 5.8 7.3 10.9 - - 24.1 58.2
Cons. Silver Production (mn oz) 0.15 0.20 0.24 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.84 0.85 1.03 1.06
Cons. Copper Production (mn lbs) - - - - - - - - - - - -
Cons. Zinc Production (mn lbs) 7.3 9.5 10.2 9.7 8.7 8.7 8.7 8.7 36.9 36.6 34.8 34.0
Cons. Lead Production (mn lbs) 4.6 6.1 7.2 6.8 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 25.6 24.7 33.9 28.9
Total Cash Costs (US$/oz) (Co-product)
Skouries (95.0%), Greece - - - - - - - - - - - -
Olympias (95.0%), Greece - - - - - 890 910 932 - - 915 957
Certej (80.0%), Romania - - - - - - - - - - - -
Total Cash Costs - - - - - 890 910 932 - - 915 957
Capex ($mn)
Skouries (95.0%), Greece 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 22.7 23.1 23.4 12.8 11.4 72.1 99.2
Olympias (95.0%), Greece 1.9 1.9 1.9 7.6 8.0 8.5 8.8 9.2 8.1 13.3 34.6 55.1
Stratoni (95.0%), Greece 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 3.3 1.3 3.8 2.1
Certej (80.0%), Romania 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 8.0 8.0 12.0 73.4
Other 4.2 (0.5) (1.4) - - - - - 6.7 2.3 - -
Capex ($mn) 11.2 6.3 5.8 12.9 14.8 35.2 35.8 36.7 39.0 36.3 122.5 229.8
Operating Margin (%)
Skouries (95.0%), Greece 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Olympias (95.0%), Greece 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 48% 49% 51% 0% 0% 50% 52%
Stratoni (95.0%), Greece 33% 33% 39% 17% 23% 27% 29% 26% 19% 31% 27% 29%
Certej (80.0%), Romania 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Operating Margin 31% 34% 39% -11% -2% 19% 24% 27% 25% 27% 21% 32%
Source: Company data, Stifel Nicolaus estimates
Page 25
Metals & MiningGold & Precious Metals January 19, 2012
Goldcorp Inc. Income Statement
(US$million except per share data)
F.Y.E. Dec. 31 Mar-11A Jun-11A Sep-11A Dec-11E Mar-12E Jun-12E Sep-12E Dec-12E 2010A 2011E 2012E 2013E
Revenue 1,216.0 1,323.0 1,308.0 1,545.0 1,427.8 1,525.8 1,702.5 1,955.4 3,799.8 5,392.0 6,611.5 8,706.4
Operating Costs (451.0) (512.0) (460.0) (581.9) (574.1) (587.5) (628.7) (646.2) (1,478.4) (2,004.9) (2,436.5) (2,516.4)
Depreciation (164.0) (178.0) (163.0) (230.5) (192.2) (205.7) (224.3) (254.8) (623.0) (735.5) (876.9) (933.5)
G&A, Expl, Other (70.0) (75.0) (69.0) (99.1) (76.4) (78.1) (81.0) (89.0) (231.8) (313.1) (324.6) (342.1)
EBIT 531.0 558.0 616.0 633.5 585.1 654.4 768.6 965.4 1,466.6 2,338.5 2,973.5 4,914.4
Net Interest (6.0) (5.0) (5.0) (3.2) (1.4) (1.8) (2.0) (2.0) (80.8) (19.2) (7.2) (39.0)
Unusual/Other Items 285.0 84.0 (33.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 334.3 336.0 0.0 0.0
Pretax Profit 810.0 637.0 578.0 630.3 583.7 652.6 766.6 963.4 1,720.1 2,655.3 2,966.4 4,875.4
Tax (161.0) (140.0) (236.0) (176.5) (175.1) (195.8) (230.0) (289.0) (344.5) (713.5) (889.9) (1,462.6)
Other 2.0 (8.0) (6.0) 0.0 (2.8) (2.8) (2.8) (2.8) 198.7 (12.0) (11.4) (11.4)
Earnings reported 651.0 489.0 336.0 453.8 405.8 454.0 533.8 671.5 1,574.3 1,929.8 2,065.1 3,401.4
Earnings (Adjusted) 397.0 420.0 459.0 453.8 405.8 454.0 533.8 671.5 1,007.3 1,729.8 2,065.1 3,401.4
EPS Reported 0.82 0.61 0.42 0.56 0.50 0.56 0.66 0.83 2.14 2.40 2.55 4.20
EPS Adjusted 0.50 0.52 0.57 0.56 0.50 0.56 0.66 0.83 1.37 2.15 2.55 4.20
Gold price assumptions: 2011 US$1570/oz, 2012 US$1763/oz, 2013 US$2000/oz, and long-term as of 2015 US$1600/oz
Source: Company data, Stifel Nicolaus estimates
Cash Flow Statement
(US$million except per share data)
F.Y.E. Dec. 31 Mar-11A Jun-11A Sep-11A Dec-11E Mar-12E Jun-12E Sep-12E Dec-12E 2010A 2011E 2012E 2013E
Earnings (adjusted) 397.0 420.0 459.0 453.8 405.8 454.0 533.8 671.5 1,007.3 1,729.8 2,065.1 3,401.4
Depreciation 164.0 178.0 163.0 230.5 192.2 205.7 224.3 254.8 623.0 735.5 876.9 933.5
Other (98.0) 119.0 59.0 10.0 (0.4) (0.9) 0.5 8.7 71.6 90.0 7.9 48.7
Operating Cash f low 463.0 717.0 681.0 694.3 597.6 658.8 758.5 935.0 1,701.9 2,555.3 2,949.9 4,383.6
Working Capital Changes 123.0 (387.0) 42.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 70.0 (222.0) 0.0 0.0
Cash Flow from Operations 586.0 330.0 723.0 694.3 597.6 658.8 758.5 935.0 1,771.9 2,333.3 2,949.9 4,383.6
Capital Expenditure (346.0) (405.0) (496.0) (587.2) (637.6) (639.7) (642.8) (642.2) (1,234.3) (1,834.2) (2,562.3) (1,553.3)
Net Investments 558.0 (121.0) (128.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (844.1) 309.0 0.0 0.0
Investing Cash Flow 212.0 (526.0) (624.0) (587.2) (637.6) (639.7) (642.8) (642.2) (2,078.4) (1,525.2) (2,562.3) (1,553.3)
Debt Additions 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,080.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Debt Repayments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (1,097.4) 0.0 0.0 0.0
Equity Financing 11.0 384.0 75.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 95.5 470.0 0.0 0.0
Other Net Financing (75.0) (82.0) (82.0) (109.3) (112.2) (112.2) (112.2) (112.2) (87.5) (348.3) (448.6) (448.6)
Financing Cash Flow (64.0) 302.0 (7.0) (109.3) (112.2) (112.2) (112.2) (112.2) (9.4) 121.7 (448.6) (448.6)
Foreign Exchange (10.2) (8.0) 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (2.5) (12.2) 0.0 0.0
Cash Increase 723.8 98.0 98.0 (2.2) (152.2) (93.0) 3.5 180.6 (318.4) 917.6 (61.0) 2,381.7
Cash Balance 1,280.0 1,378.0 1,476.0 1,473.8 1,321.6 1,228.6 1,232.1 1,412.8 556.2 1,473.8 1,412.8 3,794.4
Free Cash Flow 117.0 312.0 185.0 107.1 (40.0) 19.1 115.7 292.8 450.2 721.1 387.6 2,830.3
CFPS (adjusted) 0.58 0.90 0.84 0.86 0.74 0.81 0.94 1.15 2.31 3.17 3.64 5.41
Source: Company data, Stifel Nicolaus estimates
Page 26
Metals & MiningGold & Precious Metals January 19, 2012
Balance Sheet
(US$million except per share data)
F.Y.E. Dec. 31 Mar-11A Jun-11A Sep-11A Dec-11E Mar-12E Jun-12E Sep-12E Dec-12E 2010A 2011E 2012E 2013E
Current Assets 2,277.0 2,589.0 2,774.0 2,771.8 2,619.6 2,526.6 2,530.1 2,710.8 1,621.8 2,771.8 2,710.8 5,092.4
Other Assets 26,144.0 26,316.0 26,630.0 26,986.7 27,432.1 27,866.0 28,284.6 28,672.1 27,187.3 26,986.7 28,672.1 29,291.9
Total Assets 28,421.0 28,905.0 29,404.0 29,758.5 30,051.7 30,392.7 30,814.8 31,382.9 28,809.1 29,758.5 31,382.9 34,384.3
Current Liabilities 975.0 678.0 727.0 727.0 727.0 727.0 727.0 727.0 1,034.0 727.0 727.0 1,589.5
Long Term Debt 705.0 715.0 726.0 726.0 726.0 726.0 726.0 726.0 747.1 726.0 726.0 (136.5)
Other Liabilities 6,939.0 6,936.0 7,090.0 7,100.0 7,096.8 7,093.0 7,090.7 7,096.5 6,833.8 7,100.0 7,096.5 7,133.8
Total Liabilities 8,619.0 8,329.0 8,543.0 8,553.0 8,549.8 8,546.0 8,543.7 8,549.5 8,614.9 8,553.0 8,549.5 8,586.8
Shareholder's Equity 19,802.0 20,576.0 20,861.0 21,205.5 21,501.9 21,846.6 22,271.1 22,833.3 20,194.2 21,205.5 22,833.3 25,797.5
Shares (End of Period) (mn) 798.76 807.61 809.73 809.73 809.73 809.73 809.73 809.73 798.40 809.73 809.73 809.73
Book Value per Share 24.79 25.48 25.76 26.19 26.55 26.98 27.50 28.20 25.29 26.19 28.20 31.86
Source: Company data, Stifel Nicolaus estimates
Operating Summary
F.Y.E. Dec. 31 Mar-11A Jun-11A Sep-11A Dec-11E Mar-12E Jun-12E Sep-12E Dec-12E 2010A 2011E 2012E 2013E
Production (koz)
Red Lake (100.0%), Canada (ON) 186.1 154.9 127.0 154.0 162.0 162.0 162.0 162.0 703.3 622.0 648.2 676.4
Porcupine (100.0%), Canada (ON) 59.8 62.3 76.3 74.7 67.7 67.7 67.7 67.7 265.9 273.1 270.7 273.1
Musselw hite (100.0%), Canada (ON) 67.3 58.8 59.7 56.8 63.7 68.8 68.8 68.8 258.6 242.6 270.2 328.4
Marlin (100.0%), Guatemala 77.8 78.9 95.0 130.7 52.6 52.6 52.6 52.6 296.1 382.4 210.6 167.1
Los Filos (100.0%), Mexico 94.6 83.5 73.2 85.2 85.9 85.9 85.9 85.9 306.1 336.5 343.6 308.0
Alumbrera (37.5%), Argentina 34.1 38.0 38.2 23.2 31.9 31.9 31.9 31.9 152.0 133.5 127.6 121.0
Penasquito (100.0%), Mexico 57.6 58.4 55.8 82.3 92.5 101.0 113.8 113.8 168.2 254.1 421.2 499.6
Pueblo Viejo (40.0%), DR - - - - - - 10.3 74.5 - - 84.8 361.5
Cerro Negro (100.0%), Argentina - - - - - - - - - - - 164.5
Eleonore (100.0%), Canada (QC) - - - - - - - - - - - -
Other 60.3 62.3 66.9 81.0 54.9 54.9 54.9 54.9 370.1 270.5 219.6 268.0
Equity Production 637.6 597.1 592.1 687.9 611.3 624.9 648.1 712.2 2,520.3 2,514.7 2,596.5 3,167.6
Total Cash Costs (US$/oz) (Co-product)
Red Lake (100.0%), Canada (ON) $322 $352 $405 $332 $334 $347 $358 $368 $297 $349 $352 $441
Porcupine (100.0%), Canada (ON) $733 $710 $615 $615 $677 $705 $726 $748 $595 $663 $714 $781
Musselw hite (100.0%), Canada (ON) $621 $767 $779 $644 $646 $672 $692 $713 $624 $701 $681 $625
Marlin (100.0%), Guatemala $293 $325 $320 $404 $679 $693 $677 $656 $332 $344 $676 $462
Los Filos (100.0%), Mexico $427 $438 $490 $440 $446 $452 $458 $464 $423 $447 $455 $528
Alumbrera (37.5%), Argentina $797 $724 $892 $897 $800 $800 $870 $887 $645 $821 $839 $977
Penasquito (100.0%), Mexico $856 $963 $794 $704 $672 $650 $328 $799 $701 $566
Pueblo Viejo (40.0%), DR $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $123 $81 $0 $0 $86 $78
Cerro Negro (100.0%), Argentina $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $292
Eleonore (100.0%), Canada (QC) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Total Cash Costs (Co-product) $486 $535 $561 $542 $576 $577 $577 $536 $443 $531 $566 $512
Capex
Red Lake (100.0%), Canada (ON) 85.0 68.0 43.0 40.6 60.4 60.4 60.4 48.2 204.1 236.6 229.4 155.1
Porcupine (100.0%), Canada (ON) 22.0 22.0 24.0 22.1 41.7 41.7 41.7 36.7 87.1 90.1 161.6 76.5
Musselw hite (100.0%), Canada (ON) 18.0 16.0 12.0 23.3 34.6 35.3 35.3 35.3 79.4 69.3 140.5 109.3
Marlin (100.0%), Guatemala 19.0 26.0 27.0 26.5 35.3 35.3 35.3 35.3 76.8 98.5 141.1 96.7
Los Filos (100.0%), Mexico 19.0 13.0 29.0 6.8 12.9 12.9 12.9 12.9 81.9 67.8 51.5 46.2
Eleonore (100.0%), Canada (QC) 36.0 36.0 63.0 89.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 118.2 224.0 400.0 200.0
Penasquito (100.0%), Mexico 18.0 20.0 48.0 77.2 42.0 43.3 27.1 27.1 197.7 163.2 139.4 74.9
Pueblo Viejo (40.0%), DR 94.0 96.7 110.0 106.4 114.0 114.0 71.0 77.5 394.7 407.1 376.5 157.4
Cerro Negro (100.0%), Argentina 11.0 32.0 27.0 82.0 122.5 122.5 122.5 132.5 22.6 152.0 500.0 108.2
El Morro (70%*), Chile 10.0 25.0 24.0 45.0 37.5 37.5 100.0 100.0 17.2 104.0 275.0 500.0
Other 14.0 50.3 89.0 68.2 36.8 36.9 36.7 36.7 (45.4) 221.5 147.2 29.0
Capex ($mn) 346.0 405.0 496.0 587.2 637.6 639.7 642.8 642.2 1,234.3 1,834.2 2,562.3 1,553.3
Operating Margin 63% 61% 65% 62% 60% 61% 63% 67% 61% 63% 63% 71%
Source: Company data, Stifel Nicolaus estimates
Page 27
Metals & MiningGold & Precious Metals January 19, 2012
Great Basin Gold Ltd. Income Statement
(C$million except per share data)
F.Y.E. Dec. 31 Mar-11A Jun-11A Sep-11A Dec-11E Mar-12E Jun-12E Sep-12E Dec-12E 2010A 2011E 2012E 2013E
Revenue 26.3 56.7 46.7 58.5 65.8 68.5 75.3 90.9 99.7 188.3 300.5 415.6
Operating Costs (14.1) (30.0) (30.6) (31.3) (36.0) (38.1) (40.1) (42.5) (70.3) (106.0) (156.7) (190.8)
Depreciation (2.3) (7.8) (6.4) (6.5) (6.8) (7.0) (7.3) (8.0) (8.4) (23.1) (29.2) (36.1)
G&A (6.1) (5.7) (4.9) (6.2) (6.0) (6.0) (6.0) (6.0) (22.6) (22.8) (24.0) (24.0)
Expl., Other (7.1) (7.6) (8.3) (7.7) (6.8) (6.8) (6.8) (7.2) (23.8) (30.7) (27.6) (14.7)
EBIT (3.3) 5.6 (3.5) 6.8 10.2 10.7 15.0 27.1 (25.5) 5.6 63.0 150.0
Net Interest (4.7) (5.7) (5.6) (4.3) (5.3) (5.1) (4.9) (4.9) 1.8 (20.3) (20.2) (17.8)
Unusual/Other Items (12.4) (0.9) (24.9) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 21.2 (38.2) 0.0 0.0
Pretax Profit (20.3) (1.0) (34.0) 2.5 4.9 5.5 10.1 22.2 (2.6) (52.9) 42.8 132.2
Tax 0.0 (0.0) (0.0) (0.7) (1.3) (1.5) (2.7) (6.0) 0.2 (0.7) (11.5) (35.7)
Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Earnings reported (20.3) (1.1) (34.0) 1.8 3.6 4.1 7.4 16.2 (2.4) (53.5) 31.2 96.5
Earnings (Adjusted) (9.5) (0.4) (9.2) 1.8 3.6 4.1 7.4 16.2 (16.4) (17.3) 31.2 96.5
EPS Reported (0.05) (0.00) (0.07) 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.03 (0.02) (0.12) 0.07 0.20
EPS Adjusted - FD (0.02) (0.00) (0.02) 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.03 (0.05) (0.04) 0.07 0.20
Gross Operating Margin 46% 47% 35% 47% 45% 44% 47% 53% 29% 44% 48% 54%
Gold price assumptions: 2011 US$1570/oz, 2012 US$1763/oz, 2013 US$2000/oz, and long-term as of 2015 US$1600/oz
Rand assumptions: 2013 ZAR:US 6.7, 2014 ZAR:US 6.7, and 2015 ZAR:US 6.7
Source: Company data, Stifel Nicolaus estimates
Cash Flow Statement
(C$million except per share data)
F.Y.E. Dec. 31 Mar-11A Jun-11A Sep-11A Dec-11E Mar-12E Jun-12E Sep-12E Dec-12E 2010A 2011E 2012E 2013E
Earnings (adjusted) (9.5) (0.4) (9.2) 1.8 3.6 4.1 7.4 16.2 (16.4) (17.3) 31.2 96.5
Depreciation 2.3 7.8 6.4 6.5 6.8 7.0 7.3 8.0 8.4 23.1 29.2 36.1
Other 8.1 8.8 9.2 0.7 1.3 1.5 2.7 6.0 1.2 26.7 11.5 17.3
Operating Cash f low 0.9 16.2 6.4 9.0 11.7 12.6 17.4 30.3 (6.8) 32.6 72.0 149.9
Working Capital Changes (10.4) 7.5 3.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.6 1.0 0.0 0.0
Cash Flow from Operations (9.5) 23.8 10.3 9.0 11.7 12.6 17.4 30.3 (1.1) 33.5 72.0 149.9
Capital Expenditure (36.5) (56.7) (36.6) (24.3) (18.1) (18.4) (19.6) (10.9) (229.5) (154.1) (67.0) (67.6)
Net Investments (0.2) (1.4) (0.1) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (3.9) (1.7) 0.0 6.5
Investing Cash Flow (36.7) (58.1) (36.7) (24.3) (18.1) (18.4) (19.6) (10.9) (233.3) (155.8) (67.0) (61.1)
Debt Additions 68.8 0.0 0.0 168.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 72.5 236.9 0.0 0.0
Debt Repayments (53.7) (2.1) (16.0) (75.4) (11.4) (11.5) (5.5) (4.6) (2.2) (147.1) (32.9) (66.0)
Equity Financing 88.1 14.3 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 103.5 115.1 0.0 0.0
Other Net Financing (1.1) (7.9) (1.5) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (15.1) (10.6) 0.0 0.0
Financing Cash Flow 102.1 4.4 (4.9) 92.7 (11.4) (11.5) (5.5) (4.6) 158.7 194.3 (32.9) (66.0)
Foreign Exchange (0.7) 0.7 (0.9) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (0.8) (1.0) 0.0 0.0
Cash Increase 55.2 (29.2) (32.2) 77.4 (17.7) (17.3) (7.7) 14.8 (76.6) 71.1 (27.9) 22.8
Cash Balance 68.0 38.8 6.5 83.9 66.3 48.9 41.2 56.0 12.9 83.9 56.0 78.8
Free Cash Flow (35.6) (40.4) (30.2) (15.3) (6.3) (5.8) (2.2) 19.4 (236.2) (121.5) 5.0 82.3
CFPS (adjusted) - FD 0.00 0.03 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.06 (0.03) 0.06 0.13 0.28
Source: Company data, Stifel Nicolaus estimates
Page 28
Metals & MiningGold & Precious Metals January 19, 2012
Balance Sheet
(C$million except per share data)
F.Y.E. Dec. 31 Mar-11A Jun-11A Sep-11A Dec-11E Mar-12E Jun-12E Sep-12E Dec-12E 2010A 2011E 2012E 2013E
Current Assets 105.6 76.6 46.3 123.7 106.0 88.7 80.9 95.8 55.3 123.7 95.8 118.5
Other Assets 749.5 781.6 756.3 774.2 785.4 796.8 809.1 811.9 819.3 774.2 811.9 837.0
Total Assets 855.2 858.2 802.6 897.8 891.4 885.5 890.0 907.7 874.6 897.8 907.7 955.5
Current Liabilities 87.0 86.6 96.9 87.7 92.8 97.8 108.8 120.7 115.5 87.7 120.7 247.2
Long Term Debt 236.1 225.5 217.9 320.4 303.9 287.4 270.9 254.4 170.4 236.1 303.9 237.9
Other Liabilities 23.3 24.2 42.0 42.1 43.4 44.9 47.6 53.7 79.2 126.4 4.2 (105.0)
Total Liabilities 346.5 336.3 356.8 450.2 440.1 430.2 427.4 428.8 365.1 450.2 428.8 380.1
Shareholder's Equity 508.7 522.0 445.8 447.7 451.2 455.3 462.6 478.9 509.4 447.7 478.9 575.4
Shares (End of Period) (mn) 455.10 475.65 475.65 475.65 475.65 475.65 475.65 475.65 414.02 475.65 475.65 475.65
Book Value per Share 1.12 1.10 0.94 0.94 0.95 0.96 0.97 1.01 1.23 0.94 1.01 1.21
Source: Company data, Stifel Nicolaus estimates
Operating Summary
F.Y.E. Dec. 31 Mar-11A Jun-11A Sep-11A Dec-11E Mar-12E Jun-12E Sep-12E Dec-12E 2010A 2011E 2012E 2013E
Sales (koz, Gold Equivalent)
Hollister Block (100.0%), U.S. (Nevada) 17.3 34.5 22.8 25.7 25.0 25.0 25.2 25.5 62.7 100.4 100.8 102.1
Burnstone (100.0%), South Africa 5.5 4.9 6.5 7.3 14.5 15.7 17.4 23.7 - 24.2 71.3 118.3
Sales 20.1 40.1 29.3 34.0 39.5 40.7 42.7 49.3 90.2 123.6 172.1 220.4
Total Cash Costs (US$/oz)
Hollister Block (100.0%), U.S. (Nevada) 670 611 652 679 721 736 748 759 753 653 741 780
Burnstone (100.0%), South Africa 1,344 1,447 2,299 1,737 1,230 1,289 1,278 1,039 - 1,740 1,191 1,029
Total Cash Costs 805 757 1,018 927 918 961 977 901 753 880 938 920
Capex (US$mn)
Hollister Block (100.0%), U.S. (Nevada) 4.2 4.1 6.3 5.4 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 17.6 20.0 16.4 16.4
Burnstone (100.0%), South Africa 37.1 37.5 37.4 23.7 17.9 18.6 20.0 11.2 240.4 135.7 67.7 54.6
Operating Margin (%)
Hollister Block (100.0%), U.S. (Nevada) 65% 45% 66% 60% 57% 57% 59% 61% 33% 59% 58% 61%
Burnstone (100.0%), South Africa 68% -14% -40% -3% 25% 24% 29% 45% 0% 1% 33% 49%
Operating Margin 46% 47% 35% 47% 45% 44% 47% 53% 29% 44% 48% 54%
Source: Company data, Stifel Nicolaus estimates
Page 29
Metals & MiningGold & Precious Metals January 19, 2012
IAMGOLD Corp. Income Statement
(US$million except per share data)
F.Y.E. Dec. 31 Mar-11A Jun-11A Sep-11A Dec-11E Mar-12E Jun-12E Sep-12E Dec-12E 2010A 2011E 2012E 2013E
Revenue 432.5 345.7 431.9 503.5 439.8 425.7 458.7 498.5 1,167.2 1,713.5 1,822.7 2,256.9
Operating Costs (185.5) (168.2) (203.8) (203.6) (180.0) (178.5) (184.1) (192.9) (570.6) (761.2) (735.4) (871.9)
Depreciation (44.9) (31.7) (37.0) (39.3) (34.3) (30.2) (32.4) (34.9) (132.7) (152.9) (131.8) (238.3)
G&A, Expl, Other (27.1) (29.7) (34.6) (36.0) (33.8) (33.8) (33.8) (34.8) (92.6) (127.4) (136.0) (129.1)
EBIT 175.0 115.9 156.5 224.6 191.7 183.2 208.5 236.0 371.4 672.1 819.4 1,017.6
Net Interest (0.9) (0.9) (0.4) 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 (3.6) (1.6) 2.1 (13.3)
Unusual/Other Items 10.6 416.8 (35.1) 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.7 1.0 9.8 392.5 2.6 5.4
Pretax Profit 184.7 531.9 121.0 225.3 192.7 184.3 209.8 237.5 377.6 1,062.9 824.1 1,009.7
Tax (43.4) (47.4) (70.3) (76.6) (65.5) (62.6) (71.3) (80.7) (135.4) (237.7) (280.2) (343.3)
Other 12.1 (5.6) (10.0) (11.0) (9.7) (9.3) (10.3) (11.5) 37.6 (14.5) (40.8) 0.0
Earnings reported 153.4 478.9 40.8 137.7 117.5 112.3 128.1 145.2 279.8 810.7 503.1 666.4
Earnings (Adjusted) 136.0 67.2 112.5 137.5 117.1 111.8 127.4 144.2 285.3 453.2 500.5 661.0
EPS Reported 0.41 1.28 0.11 0.37 0.31 0.30 0.34 0.39 0.75 2.16 1.34 1.78
EPS Adjusted 0.36 0.18 0.30 0.37 0.31 0.30 0.34 0.38 0.77 1.21 1.33 1.76
Gold price assumptions: 2011 US$1570/oz, 2012 US$1763/oz, 2013 US$2000/oz, and long-term as of 2015 US$1600/oz
Source: Company data, Stifel Nicolaus estimates
Cash Flow Statement
(US$million except per share data)
F.Y.E. Dec. 31 Mar-11A Jun-11A Sep-11A Dec-11E Mar-12E Jun-12E Sep-12E Dec-12E 2010A 2011E 2012E 2013E
Earnings (adjusted) 136.0 67.2 112.5 137.5 117.1 111.8 127.4 144.2 285.3 453.2 500.5 661.0
Depreciation 44.9 31.7 37.0 39.3 34.3 30.2 32.4 34.9 132.7 152.9 131.8 238.3
Other 39.3 (18.9) 24.1 11.0 9.7 9.3 10.3 11.5 (4.8) 55.5 40.8 0.0
Operating Cash f low 220.2 79.9 173.6 187.8 161.1 151.4 170.1 190.6 413.2 661.5 673.2 899.3
Working Capital Changes (14.4) (64.2) 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9 (78.1) 0.0 0.0
Cash Flow from Operations 205.8 15.7 174.0 187.8 161.1 151.4 170.1 190.6 415.1 583.4 673.2 899.3
Capital Expenditure (60.1) (86.7) (98.6) (132.6) (146.5) (213.3) (244.3) (244.7) (421.7) (378.0) (848.7) (923.4)
Net Investments 47.6 639.9 (184.4) 0.0 (8.0) (8.0) (8.0) (8.0) 64.2 503.1 (32.0) 0.0
Investing Cash Flow (12.5) 553.2 (283.0) (132.6) (154.5) (221.3) (252.3) (252.7) (357.4) 125.1 (880.7) (923.4)
Debt Additions 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 50.0 0.0 0.0 350.0
Debt Repayments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (50.2) 0.0 0.0 0.0
Equity Financing 43.2 3.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 54.7 47.0 0.0 0.0
Other Net Financing (31.3) (2.1) (35.8) 0.0 (37.5) 0.0 (37.5) 0.0 (33.4) (69.2) (75.1) (75.1)
Financing Cash Flow 11.9 1.7 (35.8) 0.0 (37.5) 0.0 (37.5) 0.0 21.1 (22.2) (75.1) 274.9
Foreign Exchange 1.6 (0.8) (16.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 (15.2) 0.0 0.0
Cash Increase 206.8 569.9 (160.8) 55.2 (30.9) (69.9) (119.7) (62.1) 79.4 671.1 (282.6) 250.8
Cash Balance 477.5 1,047.5 886.7 941.8 910.9 841.0 721.3 659.2 270.8 941.8 659.2 910.0
Free Cash Flow 190.9 (12.7) 70.9 55.2 6.6 (69.9) (82.2) (62.1) 7.4 304.2 (207.5) (24.1)
CFPS (adjusted) 0.59 0.21 0.46 0.50 0.43 0.40 0.45 0.51 1.11 1.77 1.79 2.40
Source: Company data, Stifel Nicolaus estimates
Page 30
Metals & MiningGold & Precious Metals January 19, 2012
Balance Sheet
(US$million except per share data)
F.Y.E. Dec. 31 Mar-11A Jun-11A Sep-11A Dec-11E Mar-12E Jun-12E Sep-12E Dec-12E 2010A 2011E 2012E 2013E
Current Assets 847.5 1,518.6 1,482.6 1,537.8 1,506.9 1,436.9 1,317.2 1,255.2 599.5 1,537.8 1,255.2 1,506.0
Other Assets 2,784.1 2,552.0 2,665.0 2,758.4 2,878.5 3,069.6 3,289.5 3,507.2 2,895.5 2,758.4 3,507.2 4,192.3
Total Assets 3,631.5 4,070.5 4,147.6 4,296.1 4,385.4 4,506.5 4,606.7 4,762.4 3,494.9 4,296.1 4,762.4 5,698.3
Current Liabilities 280.5 296.9 297.0 297.0 297.0 297.0 297.0 297.0 253.9 297.0 297.0 297.0
Long Term Debt 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 350.0
Other Liabilities 442.5 429.4 465.0 475.8 485.1 494.0 503.6 514.1 465.2 475.8 514.1 508.6
Total Liabilities 723.0 726.3 762.0 772.8 782.1 791.0 800.6 811.1 719.1 772.8 811.1 1,155.6
Shareholder's Equity 2,908.6 3,344.2 3,385.6 3,523.3 3,603.3 3,715.5 3,806.1 3,951.3 2,775.8 3,523.3 3,951.3 4,542.6
Shares (End of Period) (MM) 374.73 375.13 375.75 375.39 375.39 375.39 375.39 375.39 372.85 375.39 375.39 375.39
Book Value per Share 7.76 8.91 9.01 9.39 9.60 9.90 10.14 10.53 7.44 9.39 10.53 12.10
Source: Company data, Stifel Nicolaus estimates
Operating Summary
F.Y.E. Dec. 31 Mar-11A Jun-11A Sep-11A Dec-11E Mar-12E Jun-12E Sep-12E Dec-12E 2010A 2011E 2012E 2013E
Production (koz)
Rosebel (95.0%), Suriname 100.0 87.4 94.1 104.0 100.7 87.2 91.4 99.6 395.2 385.4 378.9 379.8
Doyon/Westw ood (100.0%), Canada - - 5.0 19.0 - - - - 33.0 24.0 - 86.8
Sadiola (41.0%), Mali 30.0 33.0 30.0 28.5 29.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 118.0 121.5 115.6 108.2
Yatela (40.0%), Mali 8.0 6.0 7.0 7.4 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.4 59.0 28.4 29.4 21.8
Quimsacocha (100.0%), Ecuador - - - - - - - - - - - -
Essakane (90.0%), Burkina Faso 95.0 62.0 85.5 94.0 85.8 84.7 85.2 85.2 122.4 336.5 340.9 376.4
Other 57.0 9.6 0.5 - - - - - 239.4 67.1 - -
Equity Production 290.0 198.0 222.0 253.0 223.3 207.9 212.7 220.8 967.0 963.0 864.7 973.2
Total Cash Costs (US$/oz)
Rosebel (95.0%), Suriname 544 704 629 631 648 695 702 701 484 625 686 760
Doyon/Westw ood (100.0%), Canada - - 1,203 834 - - - - 656 911 - 597
Sadiola (41.0%), Mali 724 705 839 707 666 699 687 703 654 743 688 699
Yatela (40.0%), Mali 1,312 1,401 1,793 1,588 1,614 1,551 1,396 1,426 765 1,521 1,496 1,456
Quimsacocha (100.0%), Ecuador - - - - - - - - - - - -
Essakane (90.0%), Burkina Faso 428 613 535 530 558 581 605 615 430 518 590 695
Total Cash Costs 575 729 674 646 647 679 685 692 574 648 676 729
Realized Price (US$) 1,396 1,515 1,675 1,682 1,650 1,700 1,800 1,900 1,263 1,557 1,763 2,003
Operating Margin 57% 51% 53% 60% 59% 58% 60% 61% 51% 56% 60% 61%
Capex ($mm)
Rosebel (95.0%), Suriname 7.2 13.0 23.9 28.9 39.9 39.2 39.4 39.9 51.0 73.1 158.4 152.0
Doyon/Westw ood (100.0%), Canada 21.3 36.5 30.7 48.5 55.0 55.0 55.0 55.0 95.2 137.0 220.0 66.5
Quimsacocha (100.0%), Ecuador 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 10.6 20.0 4.0 4.0
Essakane (90.0%), Burkina Faso 8.3 16.1 23.1 24.9 24.6 92.1 92.1 92.1 131.1 72.4 301.0 207.4
Niobec (100.0%), Canada 10.6 12.5 13.5 21.2 22.5 22.6 22.6 22.6 73.6 57.8 90.3 324.6
Other 7.7 3.6 2.3 4.2 3.4 3.4 34.1 34.1 60.2 17.7 75.0 168.9
Capex 60.1 86.7 98.6 132.6 146.5 213.3 244.3 244.7 421.7 378.0 848.7 923.4
Source: Company data, Stifel Nicolaus estimates
Page 31
Metals & MiningGold & Precious Metals January 19, 2012
Kinross Gold Corp. Income Statement
(US$million except per share data)
F.Y.E. Dec. 31 Mar-11A Jun-11A Sep-11A Dec-11E Mar-12E Jun-12E Sep-12E Dec-12E 2010A 2011E 2012E 2013E
Revenue 937.0 987.8 1,069.2 993.1 1,059.0 1,092.2 1,203.7 1,280.9 3,010.1 3,987.1 4,635.8 5,462.2
Operating Costs (380.7) (402.6) (425.5) (402.5) (464.5) (480.3) (492.1) (506.2) (1,255.4) (1,611.3) (1,943.0) (2,075.3)
Depreciation (145.7) (149.9) (143.4) (148.7) (130.0) (133.8) (137.5) (141.5) (546.5) (587.7) (542.8) (606.3)
G&A, Expl, Other (71.4) (77.3) (83.4) (91.2) (125.0) (125.0) (125.0) (125.0) (341.0) (323.3) (500.2) (291.4)
EBIT 339.2 358.0 416.9 350.6 339.5 353.1 449.1 508.1 867.2 1,464.7 1,649.8 2,489.3
Net Interest (8.8) (8.9) (16.1) (16.7) (17.1) (17.3) (17.4) (17.5) (22.8) (50.5) (69.3) (67.2)
Unusual/Other Items 83.3 10.8 (14.0) 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 315.8 81.3 0.0 0.0
Pretax Profit 413.7 359.9 386.8 335.1 322.3 335.8 431.7 490.6 1,160.2 1,495.5 1,580.5 2,422.1
Tax (116.3) (98.9) (171.4) (113.9) (109.6) (114.2) (146.8) (166.8) (275.4) (500.5) (537.4) (823.5)
Other (41.9) (13.6) (2.8) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (113.2) (58.3) 0.0 0.0
Earnings reported 255.5 247.4 212.6 221.1 212.7 221.7 284.9 323.8 771.6 936.6 1,043.1 1,598.6
Earnings (Adjusted) 180.3 226.5 273.4 221.1 212.7 221.7 284.9 323.8 478.8 901.3 1,043.1 1,598.6
EPS Reported 0.23 0.22 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.20 0.25 0.29 0.95 0.82 0.92 1.41
EPS Adjusted 0.16 0.20 0.24 0.19 0.19 0.20 0.25 0.29 0.59 0.79 0.92 1.41
Gross Operating Margin 59% 59% 60% 59% 56% 56% 59% 60% 58% 60% 58% 62%
Gold price assumptions: 2011 US$1570/oz, 2012 US$1763/oz, 2013 US$2000/oz, and long-term as of 2015 US$1600/oz
Source: Company data, Stifel Nicolaus estimates
Cash Flow Statement
(US$million except per share data)
F.Y.E. Dec. 31 Mar-11A Jun-11A Sep-11A Dec-11E Mar-12E Jun-12E Sep-12E Dec-12E 2010A 2011E 2012E 2013E
Earnings (adjusted) 180.3 226.5 273.4 221.1 212.7 221.7 284.9 323.8 478.8 901.3 1,043.1 1,598.6
Depreciation 145.7 149.9 143.4 148.7 130.0 133.8 137.5 141.5 546.5 587.7 542.8 606.3
Other 1.0 (83.6) 4.8 15.4 (3.3) (1.4) 18.0 24.9 65.9 (62.4) 38.2 206.1
Operating Cash Flow 327.0 292.8 421.6 385.3 339.4 354.0 440.5 490.3 1,091.2 1,426.7 1,624.1 2,411.0
Working Capital Changes 8.1 68.5 (119.2) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (122.8) (42.6) 0.0 0.0
Cash Flow from Operations 335.1 361.3 302.4 385.3 339.4 354.0 440.5 490.3 968.4 1,384.1 1,624.1 2,411.0
Capital Expenditure (255.9) (415.6) (395.0) (631.3) (563.5) (597.0) (621.6) (622.1) (563.7) (1,697.8) (2,404.2) (2,003.0)
Net Investments 90.7 (413.9) 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 795.5 (307.2) 0.0 0.0
Investing Cash Flow (165.2) (829.5) (379.0) (631.3) (563.5) (597.0) (621.6) (622.1) 231.8 (2,005.0) (2,404.2) (2,003.0)
Debt Additions 93.0 99.6 1,136.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 127.5 1,329.1 0.0 13.9
Debt Repayments (105.2) (111.7) (168.1) (12.1) (8.3) (8.3) (8.3) (7.9) (334.9) (397.1) (32.6) (422.8)
Equity Financing 8.9 6.0 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.9 26.8 0.0 0.0
Other Net Financing (77.4) (10.0) (97.1) (2.4) (68.2) 0.0 (68.2) 0.0 (145.8) (186.9) (136.3) (136.3)
Financing Cash Flow (80.7) (16.1) 883.2 (14.5) (76.4) (8.3) (76.4) (7.9) (337.3) 771.9 (168.9) (545.2)
Foreign Exchange 5.0 3.8 (12.3) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.3 (3.5) 0.0 0.0
Cash Increase 94.2 (480.5) 794.3 (260.5) (300.5) (251.3) (257.5) (139.7) 869.2 147.5 (949.0) (137.2)
Cash Balance 1,560.8 1,080.3 1,874.6 1,614.1 1,313.6 1,062.4 804.8 665.1 1,466.6 1,614.1 665.1 527.9
Free Cash Flow 58.9 (134.9) 995.0 (258.0) (232.3) (251.3) (189.4) (139.7) 320.1 661.0 (812.7) (0.9)
CFPS (adjusted) 0.29 0.26 0.37 0.34 0.30 0.31 0.39 0.43 1.35 1.26 1.43 2.12
Source: Company data, Stifel Nicolaus estimates
Page 32
Metals & MiningGold & Precious Metals January 19, 2012
Balance Sheet
(US$million except per share data)
F.Y.E. Dec. 31 Mar-11A Jun-11A Sep-11A Dec-11E Mar-12E Jun-12E Sep-12E Dec-12E 2010A 2011E 2012E 2013E
Current Assets 2,809.8 2,406.7 3,073.2 2,812.7 2,512.2 2,261.0 2,003.4 1,863.7 2,668.5 2,812.7 1,863.7 1,726.5
Other Assets 15,258.2 15,522.0 15,774.6 16,257.1 16,690.6 17,153.8 17,637.9 18,118.5 13,728.6 16,257.1 18,118.5 19,515.2
Total Assets 18,068.0 17,928.7 18,847.8 19,069.9 19,202.9 19,414.8 19,641.3 19,982.2 16,397.1 19,069.9 19,982.2 21,241.7
Current Liabilities 943.4 874.6 693.3 684.6 679.6 671.4 663.1 1,074.8 927.4 684.6 1,074.8 652.0
Long Term Debt 410.1 415.0 1,401.1 1,397.7 1,394.5 1,394.5 1,394.5 975.0 507.4 410.1 1,394.5 975.0
Other Liabilities 1,921.3 1,627.8 1,659.8 1,672.8 1,669.5 1,668.0 1,686.1 1,711.0 1,561.8 2,660.4 1,291.5 1,931.0
Total Liabilities 3,274.8 2,917.4 3,754.2 3,755.1 3,743.6 3,733.9 3,743.6 3,760.7 2,996.6 3,755.1 3,760.7 3,558.0
Shareholder's Equity 14,793.2 15,011.3 15,093.6 15,314.7 15,459.3 15,681.0 15,897.7 16,221.5 13,400.5 15,314.7 16,221.5 17,683.7
Shares (End of Period) (mn) 1,135.36 1,136.15 1,137.36 1,136.15 1,136.15 1,136.15 1,136.15 1,136.15 1,133.30 1,136.15 1,136.15 1,136.15
Book Value per Share 13.03 13.21 13.27 13.48 13.61 13.80 13.99 14.28 11.82 13.48 14.28 15.56
Source: Company data, Stifel Nicolaus estimates
Operating Summary
F.Y.E. Dec. 31 Mar-11A Jun-11A Sep-11A Dec-11E Mar-12E Jun-12E Sep-12E Dec-12E 2010A 2011E 2012E 2013E
Production (koz)
Paracatu (100.0%), Brazil 100.4 99.9 135.1 117.1 127.9 127.9 127.9 127.9 482.4 452.5 511.6 525.1
Maricunga (100.0%), Chile 58.7 70.1 53.1 62.7 62.7 62.7 62.7 62.7 156.6 244.6 250.7 235.0
Kupol (100.0%), Russia 115.1 134.8 94.4 89.8 109.5 109.5 109.5 109.5 479.7 434.1 437.8 485.8
Round Mountain (50.0%), US (NV) 42.1 47.2 54.6 48.1 48.1 48.1 48.1 48.1 184.6 192.0 192.4 192.4
Fort Knox (100.0%), US (AK) 65.0 77.7 76.3 58.8 74.0 74.0 74.0 74.0 349.7 277.8 296.1 296.1
Buckhorn - Kettle River (100.0%), US (WA)45.9 46.2 41.2 34.5 34.5 34.5 34.5 34.5 198.8 167.8 138.1 123.5
La Coipa (100.0%), Chile 22.7 20.8 17.7 23.5 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 126.6 84.7 117.4 117.4
Chirano (90.0%), Ghana 55.8 52.1 61.5 64.9 64.9 64.9 64.9 64.9 81.6 234.4 259.5 259.5
Tasiast (100.0%), Mauritania 51.3 47.2 47.2 56.1 60.5 60.5 60.5 60.5 56.6 201.9 241.9 241.9
Lobo-Marte (100.0%), Chile - - - - - - - - - - - -
Equity Gold Production (koz) 572.0 611.5 596.7 569.7 625.6 625.6 625.6 625.6 2,191.4 2,349.8 2,502.5 2,533.7
Equity Silver Production (koz) 2,851.4 2,809.1 2,184.7 2,271.5 1,940.1 1,940.1 1,940.1 1,940.1 9,247.4 10,116.7 7,760.4 7,812.0
Gold Equivalent Production (koz) 642.9 676.2 648.0 612.7 664.4 664.4 668.7 674.1 2,334.1 2,579.7 2,671.8 2,729.1
Total Cash Costs (US$/oz)
Paracatu (100.0%), Brazil 690 805 670 648 890 955 1,001 1,051 536 699 974 1,050
Maricunga (100.0%), Chile 482 413 515 496 572 581 580 585 746 473 580 634
Kupol (100.0%), Russia 319 346 422 505 516 521 533 543 319 382 528 528
Round Mountain (50.0%), US (NV) 792 739 668 731 715 724 733 742 657 728 728 754
Fort Knox (100.0%), US (AK) 628 678 712 856 669 680 674 687 552 713 678 704
La Coipa (100.0%), Chile 596 712 903 909 941 959 950 935 659 776 946 960
Chirano (90.0%), Ghana 706 656 735 718 760 775 792 809 730 706 784 832
Tasiast (100.0%), Mauritania 499 727 842 744 758 808 828 849 673 701 811 874
Total Cash Costs (Co-product) 543 576 634 664 705 728 742 759 509 604 734 769
Capex ($mn)
Paracatu (100.0%), Brazil 36.7 65.2 105.9 110.6 108.4 91.9 62.2 62.5 161.4 318.4 325.0 41.0
Maricunga (100.0%), Chile 41.1 44.3 29.9 30.1 15.1 15.1 15.0 14.9 72.0 145.4 60.0 18.5
Kupol (100.0%), Russia 4.4 14.8 8.0 68.0 42.9 42.9 43.2 43.5 24.1 95.2 172.5 144.9
Round Mountain (50.0%), US (NV) 8.5 7.9 9.6 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 32.7 33.2 28.9 28.9
Fort Knox (100.0%), US (AK) 22.1 26.2 26.8 17.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 87.9 92.7 118.8 88.8
Fruta del Norte (100.0%), Ecuador 13.3 19.0 18.4 20.0 20.0 20.0 74.2 74.2 1.4 70.7 188.3 296.7
Chirano (90.0%), Ghana 13.9 23.5 15.8 17.3 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 8.2 70.5 20.5 20.5
Tasiast (100.0%), Mauritania 84.2 92.1 88.3 234.8 270.5 270.5 270.5 270.5 53.8 499.4 1,082.1 1,017.1
Lobo-Marte (100.0%), Chile 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 26.4 76.4 76.4 76.4 6.7 40.0 255.5 305.5
Other 16.1 107.0 76.7 110.1 38.2 38.2 38.2 38.2 108.2 309.8 152.6 41.2
Capex ($mn) 255.9 415.6 395.0 631.3 563.5 597.0 621.6 622.1 563.7 1,697.8 2,404.2 2,003.0
Source: Company data, Stifel Nicolaus estimates
Page 33
Metals & MiningGold & Precious Metals January 19, 2012
Newmont Mining Corp. Income Statement
(US$million except per share data)
F.Y.E. Dec. 31 Mar-11A Jun-11A Sep-11A Dec-11E Mar-12E Jun-12E Sep-12E Dec-12E 2010A 2011E 2012E 2013E
Revenue 2,465.0 2,384.0 2,744.0 2,685.5 2,674.7 2,761.5 2,882.2 3,055.1 9,540.0 10,278.5 11,373.5 12,522.6
Operating Costs (940.0) (917.0) (1,008.0) (1,071.7) (1,076.4) (1,091.4) (1,108.9) (1,126.0) (3,513.0) (3,936.7) (4,402.8) (4,611.3)
Depreciation (256.0) (250.0) (270.0) (260.5) (244.0) (261.8) (280.3) (299.8) (945.0) (1,036.5) (1,085.9) (1,192.8)
G&A, Expl, Other (262.0) (355.0) (289.0) (341.8) (288.8) (288.8) (288.8) (288.8) (943.0) (1,247.8) (1,155.0) (1,086.2)
EBIT 1,007.0 862.0 1,177.0 1,011.5 1,065.5 1,119.6 1,204.2 1,340.5 4,139.0 4,057.5 4,729.8 5,632.3
Net Interest (34.0) (15.0) (63.0) (63.8) (64.2) (64.4) (64.6) (58.1) (260.0) (175.8) (251.4) (233.4)
Unusual/Other Items 0.0 0.0 (78.0) 246.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 89.0 168.8 0.0 0.0
Pretax Profit 973.0 847.0 1,036.0 1,194.4 1,001.3 1,055.2 1,139.5 1,282.3 3,968.0 4,050.4 4,478.4 5,399.0
Tax (305.0) (187.0) (371.0) (382.2) (320.4) (337.7) (364.6) (410.4) (827.0) (1,245.2) (1,433.1) (1,727.7)
Other (154.0) (273.0) (172.0) (155.8) (137.0) (143.5) (148.4) (160.7) (864.0) (754.8) (589.6) (631.5)
Earnings reported 514.0 387.0 493.0 656.5 543.9 574.0 626.5 711.3 2,277.0 2,050.5 2,455.7 3,039.7
Earnings (Adjusted) 513.0 445.0 635.0 577.5 543.9 574.0 626.5 711.3 1,893.0 2,170.5 2,455.7 3,039.7
EPS Reported 1.04 0.78 1.00 1.33 1.10 1.16 1.27 1.44 4.62 4.15 4.96 6.14
EPS Adjusted 1.04 0.90 1.29 1.17 1.10 1.16 1.27 1.44 3.84 4.39 4.96 6.14
Operating (Gross) Margin 62% 62% 63% 60% 60% 60% 62% 63% 63% 62% 61% 63%
Gold price assumptions: 2011 US$1570/oz, 2012 US$1763/oz, 2013 US$2000/oz, and long-term as of 2015 US$1600/oz
Source: Company data, Stifel Nicolaus estimates
Cash Flow Statement
(US$million except per share data)
F.Y.E. Dec. 31 Mar-11A Jun-11A Sep-11A Dec-11E Mar-12E Jun-12E Sep-12E Dec-12E 2010A 2011E 2012E 2013E
Earnings (adjusted) 513.0 445.0 635.0 577.5 543.9 574.0 626.5 711.3 1,893.0 2,170.5 2,455.7 3,039.7
Depreciation 256.0 250.0 270.0 260.5 244.0 261.8 280.3 299.8 945.0 1,036.5 1,085.9 1,192.8
Other 43.0 141.0 (23.0) (196.9) 0.2 3.4 7.8 22.8 244.0 (35.9) 34.2 110.1
Operating Cash f low 812.0 836.0 882.0 641.0 788.2 839.1 914.6 1,033.8 3,082.0 3,171.0 3,575.7 4,342.6
Working Capital Changes 21.0 (561.0) 197.0 (14.5) (13.1) (13.1) (13.2) (13.2) (754.0) (357.5) (52.7) (54.9)
Cash Flow from Operations 833.0 275.0 1,079.0 626.5 775.1 826.0 901.4 1,020.6 2,328.0 2,813.5 3,523.1 4,287.7
Capital Expenditure (402.0) (618.0) (761.0) (1,182.0) (824.6) (859.6) (859.6) (859.6) (1,402.0) (2,963.0) (3,403.2) (3,313.6)
Net Investments (16.0) (2,244.0) 13.0 246.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (17.0) (2,000.2) 0.0 0.0
Investing Cash Flow (418.0) (2,862.0) (748.0) (935.2) (824.6) (859.6) (859.6) (859.6) (1,419.0) (4,963.2) (3,403.2) (3,313.6)
Debt Additions 0.0 775.0 1,023.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,798.0 0.0 0.0
Debt Repayments (31.0) (942.0) (1,113.0) (7.5) (7.5) (7.5) (495.5) (7.5) (430.0) (2,093.5) (518.0) (30.0)
Equity Financing 3.0 5.0 27.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 60.0 35.0 0.0 0.0
Other Net Financing 67.0 36.0 37.0 (203.6) (191.7) (210.3) (247.4) (284.5) 294.0 (63.6) (934.0) (1,336.0)
Financing Cash Flow 39.0 (126.0) (26.0) (211.1) (199.2) (217.8) (742.9) (292.0) (76.0) (324.1) (1,452.0) (1,366.0)
Foreign Exchange 23.0 35.0 (25.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.0 33.0 0.0 0.0
Cash Increase 477.0 (2,678.0) 280.0 (519.8) (248.7) (251.4) (701.1) (131.0) 841.0 (2,440.8) (1,332.1) (391.9)
Cash Balance 4,533.0 1,855.0 2,135.0 1,615.2 1,366.5 1,115.1 414.0 283.1 4,056.0 1,615.2 283.1 (108.8)
Free Cash Flow 379.0 51.0 31.0 (548.5) (43.9) (27.9) (440.5) 166.8 1,250.0 (87.5) (345.5) 999.1
CFPS (adjusted) 1.65 1.69 1.79 1.30 1.59 1.70 1.85 2.09 6.26 6.42 7.23 8.78
Notes: Cash f low from operations adjusted to net out dividends paid to minorities at Batu Hijau and Yanacocha
Source: Company data, Stifel Nicolaus estimates
Page 34
Metals & MiningGold & Precious Metals January 19, 2012
Balance Sheet
(US$million except per share data)
F.Y.E. Dec. 31 Mar-11A Jun-11A Sep-11A Dec-11E Mar-12E Jun-12E Sep-12E Dec-12E 2010A 2011E 2012E 2013E
Current Assets 7,884.0 5,899.0 6,360.0 5,840.2 5,591.5 5,340.1 4,639.0 4,508.1 7,253.0 5,840.2 4,508.1 4,116.2
Other Assets 18,970.0 22,739.0 22,779.0 23,715.1 24,308.7 24,919.7 25,512.1 26,085.1 18,410.0 23,715.1 26,085.1 28,260.8
Total Assets 26,854.0 28,638.0 29,139.0 29,555.3 29,900.2 30,259.8 30,151.1 30,593.2 25,663.0 29,555.3 30,593.2 32,377.0
Current Liabilities 3,501.0 3,440.0 4,475.0 4,415.0 4,415.0 4,415.0 3,927.0 3,927.0 2,747.0 4,415.0 3,927.0 4,416.0
Long Term Debt 3,676.0 3,771.0 3,659.0 3,711.5 3,704.0 3,696.5 3,689.0 3,681.5 4,182.0 3,711.5 3,681.5 3,162.5
Other Liabilities 5,585.0 7,099.0 7,145.0 7,115.9 7,116.1 7,119.5 7,127.3 7,150.1 5,389.0 7,115.9 7,150.1 7,260.2
Total Liabilities 12,762.0 14,310.0 15,279.0 15,242.4 15,235.1 15,231.0 14,743.3 14,758.6 12,318.0 15,242.4 14,758.6 14,838.7
Shareholder's Equity 14,092.0 14,328.0 13,860.0 14,312.9 14,665.1 15,028.8 15,407.8 15,834.6 13,345.0 14,312.9 15,834.6 17,538.3
Shares (End of Period) (mn) 493.7 494.2 494.8 494.8 494.8 494.8 494.8 494.8 493.3 494.8 494.8 494.8
Book Value per Share 28.54 28.99 28.01 28.93 29.64 30.37 31.14 32.00 27.05 28.93 32.00 35.44
Source: Company data, Stifel Nicolaus estimates
Operating Summary
F.Y.E. Dec. 31 Mar-11A Jun-11A Sep-11A Dec-11E Mar-12E Jun-12E Sep-12E Dec-12E 2010A 2011E 2012E 2013E
Gold Production (koz)
Nevada (100.0%), USA (NV) 433.0 357.0 428.0 522.9 445.8 445.8 445.8 445.8 1,735.0 1,740.9 1,783.3 1,766.2
Yanacocha (51.4%), Peru 147.9 175.6 168.4 172.2 174.8 174.8 174.8 174.8 750.7 664.2 699.2 580.3
Kalgoorlie (50.0%), Australia (WA) 105.0 85.0 83.0 87.3 94.6 94.6 94.6 94.6 377.0 360.3 378.4 378.4
Jundee (100.0%), Australia (WA) 100.0 72.0 94.0 70.6 71.3 71.3 71.3 71.3 335.0 336.6 285.0 201.4
Tanami (100.0%), Australia (NT) 68.0 60.0 60.0 56.3 58.2 58.2 58.2 58.2 249.0 244.3 232.9 232.9
Waihi (100.0%), New Zealand 26.0 27.0 22.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 108.0 101.0 104.0 104.0
Batu Hijau (45%*), Indonesia 46.6 24.1 61.5 20.2 14.0 14.0 14.0 14.0 364.0 152.3 56.0 36.5
Herradura (44.0%), Mexico 47.0 53.0 54.0 57.9 57.2 57.2 57.2 57.2 174.0 211.9 228.8 228.8
Ahafo (90.0%), Ghana 167.4 131.4 131.4 135.8 143.0 143.0 143.0 143.0 545.0 566.0 571.8 571.8
Boddington (100.0%), Australia (WA) 163.0 201.0 164.0 212.9 199.8 199.8 199.8 199.8 728.0 740.9 799.3 799.3
Akyem (100.0%), Ghana - - - - - - - - - - - 60.8
Hope Bay (100.0%), Canada (Nunavut) - - - - - - - - - - - 111.0
Conga (51.4%), Peru - - - - - - - - - - - -
Other 38.1 41.9 44.7 (83.1) - - - - 25.3 41.6 - -
Equity Production 1,342.0 1,228.0 1,311.0 1,279.0 1,284.7 1,284.7 1,284.7 1,284.7 5,391.0 5,160.0 5,138.7 5,071.4
Copper Production (mn lbs)
Batu Hijau (45%*), Indonesia 41.0 27.0 40.0 29.1 20.4 20.4 20.4 20.4 269.0 137.1 81.5 53.1
Total Cash Costs (US$/oz)
Nevada (100.0%), USA (NV) 643 636 641 511 624 632 640 642 565 601 635 669
Yanacocha (51.4%), Peru 583 545 610 514 525 530 538 545 431 562 535 547
Other Australia/NZ 560 637 684 793 800 808 819 831 554 663 814 913
Batu Hijau (45%*), Indonesia 322 490 476 772 849 847 898 906 237 474 875 938
Ahafo (90.0%), Ghana 451 446 501 503 547 554 562 571 450 474 558 582
Boddington (100.0%), Australia (WA) 596 641 743 715 787 802 847 877 590 675 828 937
Akyem (100.0%), Ghana - - - - - - - - - - - 474
Equity Total Cash Costs 566 594 634 600 658 667 682 692 513 598 675 725
Costs Attributable to Sales 562 588 622 594 645 653 668 678 485 592 661 711
Capex ($mn)
Nevada (100.0%), USA (NV) 95.0 133.0 152.0 179.0 185.8 185.8 185.8 185.8 298.0 559.0 743.2 300.3
Yanacocha (51.4%), Peru 21.1 44.2 60.1 59.6 74.0 74.0 74.0 74.0 99.3 184.9 295.9 58.0
Batu Hijau (45%*), Indonesia 19.4 48.0 61.0 74.0 22.9 22.9 22.9 22.9 67.0 202.4 91.7 44.0
Ahafo (90.0%), Ghana 13.5 19.8 30.6 40.5 60.8 60.8 60.8 60.8 109.0 104.4 243.0 243.0
Boddington (100.0%), Australia (WA) 49.0 26.0 47.0 95.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 146.0 217.0 239.9 319.9
Akyem (100.0%), Ghana 28.0 39.0 60.0 120.9 104.3 104.3 104.3 104.3 70.0 247.9 417.0 352.6
Other 176.0 308.0 350.3 613.0 316.9 351.9 351.9 351.9 612.7 1,447.4 1,372.7 1,995.8
Capex ($mn) 402.0 618.0 761.0 1,182.0 824.6 859.6 859.6 859.6 1,402.0 2,963.0 3,403.2 3,313.6
Source: Company data, Stifel Nicolaus estimates
Page 35
Metals & MiningGold & Precious Metals January 19, 2012
Osisko Mining Income Statement
(C$million except per share data)
F.Y.E. Dec. 31 Mar-11A Jun-11A Sep-11A Dec-11E Mar-12E Jun-12E Sep-12E Dec-12E 2011E 2012E 2013E
Revenue 0.0 12.4 122.9 137.2 162.3 219.0 261.1 297.7 272.5 940.0 1,199.9
Operating Costs 0.0 (9.6) (75.8) (70.8) (72.7) (91.9) (99.2) (110.2) (156.2) (374.0) (379.2)
Depreciation (0.1) (1.2) (8.7) (8.4) (10.5) (14.3) (16.5) (18.2) (18.5) (59.5) (73.7)
G&A, Expl, Other (7.7) (23.8) (14.4) (18.0) (14.7) (16.3) (18.5) (20.2) (63.9) (69.7) (78.7)
EBIT (7.8) (22.2) 23.9 39.9 64.4 96.5 126.9 149.0 33.9 436.8 668.3
Net Interest 0.9 (3.2) (6.5) (4.1) (4.0) (3.7) (3.3) (2.9) (12.9) (13.9) (6.9)
Unusual/Other Items 2.1 2.5 (6.1) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (1.5) 0.0 0.0
Pretax Profit (4.7) (22.9) 11.3 35.8 60.3 92.8 123.6 146.2 19.5 422.9 661.4
Tax (0.4) (0.6) (2.0) (3.6) (6.0) (9.3) (12.4) (14.6) (6.6) (42.3) (165.3)
Other (0.1) (0.3) (0.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (0.5) 0.0 0.0
Earnings reported (5.3) (23.8) 9.3 32.2 54.3 83.5 111.2 131.5 12.4 380.6 496.0
Earnings (Adjusted) (5.3) (26.3) 20.3 32.2 54.3 83.5 111.2 131.5 21.0 380.6 496.0
EPS Reported (0.01) (0.06) 0.02 0.08 0.14 0.22 0.29 0.34 0.03 0.99 1.29
EPS Adjusted (0.01) (0.07) 0.05 0.08 0.14 0.22 0.29 0.34 0.05 0.99 1.29
Gross Operating Margin 0% 23% 38% 48% 55% 58% 62% 63% 43% 60% 68%
Gold price assumptions: 2011 US$1570/oz, 2012 US$1763/oz, 2013 US$2000/oz, and long-term as of 2015 US$1600/oz
Sources: Company data, Stifel Nicolaus estimates
Cash Flow Statement
(C$million except per share data)
F.Y.E. Dec. 31 Mar-11A Jun-11A Sep-11A Dec-11E Mar-12E Jun-12E Sep-12E Dec-12E 2011E 2012E 2013E
Earnings (adjusted) (5.3) (26.3) 20.3 32.2 54.3 83.5 111.2 131.5 21.0 380.6 496.0
Depreciation 0.1 1.2 8.7 8.4 10.5 14.3 16.5 18.2 18.5 59.5 73.7
Other 0.3 15.1 14.9 (2.2) (1.9) (2.0) (2.2) (2.3) 28.1 (8.4) (21.4)
Operating Cash f low (4.9) (9.9) 43.9 38.4 62.9 95.9 125.5 147.5 67.6 431.8 548.3
Working Capital Changes (15.7) 24.9 7.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 16.9 0.0 0.0
Cash Flow from Operations (20.6) 15.0 51.6 38.4 62.9 95.9 125.5 147.5 84.5 431.8 548.3
Capital Expenditure (94.7) (142.3) (59.3) (36.0) (32.3) (34.8) (16.1) (17.1) (332.3) (100.3) (395.2)
Net Investments (21.4) 38.2 2.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 19.7 0.0 0.0
Investing Cash Flow (116.1) (104.1) (56.5) (36.0) (32.3) (34.8) (16.1) (17.1) (312.6) (100.3) (395.2)
Debt Additions 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Debt Repayments (0.5) (1.1) (4.3) (6.0) (20.9) (20.9) (20.9) (20.9) (11.9) (83.7) (84.5)
Equity Financing 1.7 18.2 18.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 38.8 0.0 0.0
Other Net Financing (0.0) 0.0 (8.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (8.0) 0.0 0.0
Financing Cash Flow 1.1 17.1 6.6 (6.0) (20.9) (20.9) (20.9) (20.9) 18.9 (83.7) (84.5)
Foreign Exchange 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cash Increase (135.5) (72.0) 1.8 (3.5) 9.6 40.2 88.5 109.4 (209.3) 247.8 68.6
Cash Balance 223.0 151.0 152.8 149.2 158.9 199.1 287.6 397.0 149.2 397.0 465.7
Free Cash Flow (99.6) (152.2) (15.3) 2.4 30.6 61.1 109.4 130.4 (264.7) 331.5 153.1
CFPS (adjusted) (0.01) (0.03) 0.11 0.10 0.16 0.25 0.33 0.38 0.18 1.12 1.42
Sources: Company data, Stifel Nicolaus estimates
Page 36
Metals & MiningGold & Precious Metals January 19, 2012
Balance Sheet(C$million except per share data)
F.Y.E. Dec. 31 Mar-11A Jun-11A Sep-11A Dec-11E Mar-12E Jun-12E Sep-12E Dec-12E 2011E 2012E 2013E
Current Assets 300.9 249.6 261.0 257.5 267.1 307.3 395.8 505.2 257.5 505.2 573.9
Other Assets 1,631.8 1,701.8 1,739.8 1,784.7 1,806.5 1,826.9 1,826.5 1,825.4 1,784.7 1,825.4 2,146.9
Total Assets 1,932.7 1,951.4 2,000.8 2,042.1 2,073.6 2,134.2 2,222.3 2,330.6 2,042.1 2,330.6 2,720.8
Current Liabilities 120.2 148.0 157.7 160.3 160.5 160.7 160.9 161.1 160.3 161.1 204.5
Long Term Debt 214.3 212.2 225.7 234.4 213.3 192.2 171.1 149.9 214.3 213.3 136.7
Other Liabilities 4.2 4.6 6.7 4.5 2.6 0.6 (1.6) (3.9) 24.6 (67.2) (140.0)
Total Liabilities 338.7 364.8 390.1 399.2 376.4 353.5 330.4 307.1 399.2 307.1 201.2
Shareholder's Equity 1,594.0 1,586.6 1,610.7 1,642.9 1,697.2 1,780.8 1,892.0 2,023.5 1,642.9 2,023.5 2,519.6
Shares (End of Period) (mn) 382.15 383.55 385.28 385.44 385.44 385.44 385.44 385.44 385.44 385.44 385.44
Book Value per Share 4.17 4.14 4.18 4.26 4.40 4.62 4.91 5.25 4.26 5.25 6.54
Sources: Company data, Stifel Nicolaus estimates
Operating Summary
F.Y.E. Dec. 31 Mar-11A Jun-11A Sep-11A Dec-11E Mar-12E Jun-12E Sep-12E Dec-12E 2011E 2012E 2013E
Production (koz)
Malartic (100.0%), Canada (QC) - 46.6 73.8 79.7 97.4 130.1 147.9 161.4 200.1 536.8 629.9
Hammond Reef (100.0%), Canada (ON) - - - - - - - - - - -
Equity Production - 46.6 73.8 79.7 97.4 130.1 147.9 161.4 200.1 536.8 629.9
Total Cash Costs (US$/oz)
Malartic (100.0%), Canada (QC) - 1,120 939 869 739 713 684 704 953 707 632
Hammond Reef (100.0%), Canada (ON) - - - - - - - - - - -
Total Cash Costs - 1,120 939 869 739 713 684 704 953 707 632
Capex ($mn)
Malartic (100.0%), Canada (QC) 81 132 49 26 22 25 11 12 288 70 47
Hammond Reef (100.0%), Canada (ON) 14 10 10 10 10 10 5 5 44 30 348
Capex ($mn) 94.7 142.3 59.3 36.0 32.3 34.8 16.1 17.1 332.3 100.3 395.2
Operating Margin 0% 23% 38% 48% 55% 58% 62% 63% 43% 60% 68%
Sources: Company data, Stifel Nicolaus estimates
Page 37
Metals & MiningGold & Precious Metals January 19, 2012
Randgold Resources Income Statement
(US$million except per share data)
F.Y.E. Dec. 31 Mar-11A Jun-11A Sep-11A Dec-11E Mar-12E Jun-12E Sep-12E Dec-12E 2010A 2011E 2012E 2013E
Revenue 185.6 321.2 308.8 319.3 373.2 390.5 401.0 433.4 484.6 1,134.9 1,598.1 1,875.7
Operating Costs (101.4) (138.1) (132.6) (140.6) (132.6) (132.6) (133.6) (137.4) (281.6) (512.8) (536.2) (537.5)
Depreciation (21.4) (23.0) (30.4) (21.2) (21.9) (23.0) (22.1) (23.1) (28.1) (96.1) (90.2) (88.5)
G&A, Expl, Other (8.1) (17.3) (6.0) (12.7) (18.0) (18.1) (17.9) (18.1) (34.6) (44.1) (72.2) (93.7)
EBIT 54.7 142.7 139.8 144.7 200.6 216.8 227.3 254.8 140.2 482.0 899.5 1,156.0
Net Interest (0.2) (0.3) (0.9) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 (4.0) (0.9) 2.4 7.6
Unusual/Other Items (2.6) (2.4) (3.3) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.7 (8.4) 0.0 0.0
Pretax Profit 51.9 140.0 135.5 145.2 201.1 217.3 227.9 255.5 151.9 472.7 901.9 1,163.6
Tax (8.6) (14.1) (16.0) (21.8) (40.2) (43.5) (45.6) (51.1) (24.5) (60.4) (180.4) (349.1)
Other (4.4) (15.1) (16.1) (19.9) (29.9) (29.2) (30.7) (33.8) (23.9) (55.6) (123.6) (157.9)
Earnings reported 38.9 110.9 103.4 103.5 130.9 144.7 151.7 170.6 103.5 356.7 597.9 656.6
Earnings (Adjusted) 39.2 113.1 106.4 103.5 130.9 144.7 151.7 170.6 70.7 362.2 597.9 656.6
EPS Reported 0.43 1.22 1.13 1.13 1.43 1.58 1.66 1.86 1.14 3.91 6.53 7.17
EPS Adjusted 0.43 1.24 1.16 1.13 1.43 1.58 1.66 1.86 0.78 3.97 6.53 7.17
Gross Operating Margin 45% 57% 57% 56% 64% 66% 67% 68% 42% 55% 66% 71%
Gold price assumptions: 2011 US$1570/oz, 2012 US$1763/oz, 2013 US$2000/oz, and long-term as of 2015 US$1600/oz
Source: Company data and Stifel Nicolaus estimates
Cash Flow Statement
(US$million except per share data)
F.Y.E. Dec. 31 Mar-11A Jun-11A Sep-11A Dec-11E Mar-12E Jun-12E Sep-12E Dec-12E 2010A 2011E 2012E 2013E
Earnings (adjusted) 39.2 113.1 106.4 103.5 130.9 144.7 151.7 170.6 70.7 362.2 597.9 656.6
Depreciation 21.4 23.0 30.4 21.2 21.9 23.0 22.1 23.1 28.1 96.1 90.2 88.5
Other 13.1 36.2 34.7 16.8 36.6 21.0 25.3 25.2 33.1 100.9 108.0 179.4
Operating Cash f low 73.7 172.3 171.5 141.6 189.5 188.6 199.1 218.9 132.0 559.2 796.1 924.6
Working Capital Changes 11.1 32.8 (47.0) 6.4 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 (24.2) 3.3 20.0 20.0
Cash Flow from Operations 84.8 205.1 124.5 148.0 194.5 193.6 204.1 223.9 107.8 562.5 816.1 944.6
Capital Expenditure (99.2) (135.8) (110.5) (121.1) (103.7) (84.1) (83.9) (104.2) (422.9) (466.5) (375.9) (671.3)
Net Investments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 77.9 0.0 0.0 0.0
Investing Cash Flow (99.2) (135.8) (110.5) (121.1) (103.7) (84.1) (83.9) (104.2) (345.0) (466.5) (375.9) (671.3)
Debt Additions 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Debt Repayments (0.1) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (1.3) (0.1) 0.0 0.0
Equity Financing 0.3 2.2 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 30.6 15.6 0.0 0.0
Other Net Financing 0.0 (18.2) 0.0 0.0 (18.3) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (15.3) (18.2) (18.3) (18.3)
Financing Cash Flow 0.2 (15.9) 13.1 0.0 (18.3) 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.0 (2.6) (18.3) (18.3)
Foreign Exchange 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cash Increase (14.2) 53.4 27.2 26.9 72.4 109.6 120.2 119.7 (223.3) 93.3 421.9 255.0
Cash Balance 352.3 405.6 432.8 459.8 532.2 641.7 762.0 881.7 366.4 459.8 881.7 1,136.7
Free Cash Flow (25.6) 36.5 61.1 20.5 85.7 104.6 115.2 114.7 (292.2) 92.6 420.3 253.3
CFPS (adjusted) 0.81 1.89 1.88 1.55 2.07 2.06 2.17 2.39 1.46 6.12 8.70 10.10
Source: Company data and Stifel Nicolaus estimates
Page 38
Metals & MiningGold & Precious Metals January 19, 2012
Balance Sheet
(US$million except per share data)
F.Y.E. Dec. 31 Mar-11A Jun-11A Sep-11A Dec-11E Mar-12E Jun-12E Sep-12E Dec-12E 2010A 2011E 2012E 2013E
Current Assets 670.1 733.5 772.9 799.8 872.3 981.8 1,102.0 1,221.8 675.5 799.8 1,221.8 1,476.8
Other Assets 1,396.1 1,508.8 1,587.9 1,681.3 1,758.1 1,814.2 1,871.0 1,947.0 1,318.8 1,681.3 1,947.0 2,509.8
Total Assets 2,066.2 2,242.3 2,360.8 2,481.2 2,630.4 2,796.0 2,973.0 3,168.8 1,994.3 2,481.2 3,168.8 3,986.6
Current Liabilities 126.2 186.1 166.0 166.0 166.0 166.0 166.0 166.0 103.5 166.0 166.0 166.0
Long Term Debt 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other Liabilities 103.7 119.1 135.0 151.9 188.4 209.4 234.7 259.9 98.8 151.9 259.9 439.3
Total Liabilities 229.9 305.2 301.0 317.9 354.4 375.4 400.7 425.9 202.3 317.9 425.9 605.4
Shareholder's Equity 1,836.3 1,937.1 2,059.8 2,163.3 2,275.9 2,420.6 2,572.3 2,742.9 1,792.0 2,163.3 2,742.9 3,381.2
Shares (End of Period) (mn) 91.10 91.16 91.55 91.55 91.55 91.55 91.55 91.55 91.08 91.55 91.55 91.55
Book Value per Share 20.16 21.25 22.50 23.63 24.86 26.44 28.10 29.96 19.67 23.63 29.96 36.93
Source: Company data and Stifel Nicolaus estimates
Operating Summary
F.Y.E. Dec. 31 Mar-11A Jun-11A Sep-11A Dec-11E Mar-12E Jun-12E Sep-12E Dec-12E 2010A 2011E 2012E 2013E
Production (koz)
Morila (40.0%), Mali 22.3 24.9 24.4 23.7 18.4 18.4 18.4 18.4 95.4 95.3 73.5 62.6
Loulo OP (80.0%), Mali 52.1 52.6 32.1 35.4 35.5 23.4 14.6 10.6 242.2 172.2 84.1 11.8
Loulo UG (80.0%), Mali 10.1 13.0 19.0 32.2 49.3 50.9 54.1 63.5 74.3 74.2 217.7 318.1
Gounkoto OP/UG (80.0%), Mali - 14.1 36.0 40.3 53.8 49.2 49.2 49.2 - 90.3 201.5 223.5
Tongon (89.0%), Cote d'Ivoire 55.0 80.2 70.9 58.2 69.3 69.3 69.3 67.9 28.1 264.3 275.7 239.0
Kibali/Moto (45.0%), DRC - - - - - - - - - - - -
Massaw a (83.0%), Senegal - - - - - - - - - - - -
Adjustments (0.0) - - - - - - - 0.0 (0.0) - -
Equity Production 139.4 184.7 182.4 189.8 226.2 211.1 205.6 209.6 440.1 696.3 852.5 854.9
Consolidated Production 139.4 184.7 182.4 189.8 226.2 229.7 222.8 228.1 440.1 696.3 906.8 937.4
Total Cash Costs (US$/oz)
Morila (40.0%), Mali 783 799 795 798 947 961 979 997 663 794 971 1,130
Loulo (80.0%), Mali 959 839 818 727 543 524 551 550 706 820 542 522
Tongon (89.0%), Cote d'Ivoire 411 477 637 742 578 585 595 605 459 565 591 566
Gounkoto OP/UG (80.0%), Mali - 367 636 612 484 465 475 484 - 584 477 492
Kibali/Moto (45.0%), DRC - - - - - - - - - - - -
Massaw a (83.0%), Senegal - - - - - - - - - - - -
Total Cash Costs 744 645 747 741 586 579 600 604 697 718 592 577
Capex ($mn)
Morila (40.0%), Mali 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.6
Loulo OP (80.0%), Mali 1.8 1.8 1.1 8.7 2.5 1.8 1.5 1.4 25.0 13.5 7.2 0.4
Loulo UG (80.0%), Mali 23.2 38.8 42.6 42.0 42.5 18.5 18.7 19.2 66.2 146.6 98.9 79.9
Tongon (89.0%), Cote d'Ivoire 34.9 39.2 36.4 22.4 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.1 240.7 132.9 16.5 14.3
Gounkoto OP/UG (80.0%), Mali 25.0 31.4 18.3 11.2 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 16.6 85.9 10.0 239.5
Kibali/Moto (45.0%), DRC 15.0 25.0 21.1 31.5 46.8 46.8 46.8 46.8 33.2 92.6 187.2 216.5
Massaw a (83.0%), Senegal - 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 13.3 15.0 20.0 20.0
Other (0.9) (5.8) (14.3) - - 5.1 5.1 25.1 26.9 (21.0) 35.3 100.1
Capex ($mn) 99.2 135.8 110.5 121.1 103.7 84.1 83.9 104.2 422.9 466.5 375.9 671.3
Gross Margin 45% 57% 57% 56% 64% 66% 67% 68% 42% 55% 66% 71%
Source: Company data and Stifel Nicolaus estimates
Page 39
Metals & MiningGold & Precious Metals January 19, 2012
SEMAFO Inc. Income Statement
(US$million except per share data)
F.Y.E. Dec. 31 Mar-11A Jun-11A Sep-11A Dec-11E Mar-12E Jun-12E Sep-12E Dec-12E 2010A 2011E 2012E 2013E
Revenue 79.4 100.4 102.3 113.8 105.8 109.5 117.8 124.3 323.3 395.9 457.5 700.0
Operating Costs (37.1) (43.7) (43.8) (47.8) (44.5) (46.8) (50.4) (51.5) (134.9) (172.4) (193.3) (278.2)
Depreciation (8.1) (9.7) (11.0) (11.2) (9.9) (10.0) (10.2) (10.7) (41.9) (40.1) (40.8) (45.5)
G&A, Expl, Other (8.8) (6.4) (6.7) (7.0) (5.5) (5.5) (5.5) (5.5) (21.1) (28.9) (22.0) (22.0)
EBIT 25.4 40.6 40.8 47.8 45.9 47.3 51.6 56.6 125.3 154.5 201.4 354.3
Net Interest (0.4) (0.7) (0.2) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 (2.9) (1.0) 0.8 1.4
Unusual/Other Items (0.4) (0.8) (0.2) (1.7) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (1.7) 2.7 (3.2) (1.7) 0.0
Pretax Profit 24.5 39.1 40.3 46.4 46.1 47.5 51.8 55.1 125.2 150.3 200.5 355.7
Tax (4.1) (6.2) (9.0) (11.6) (11.5) (11.9) (12.9) (13.8) (20.2) (31.0) (50.1) (88.9)
Other (2.2) (2.2) (1.6) (3.7) (3.6) (3.7) (4.1) (4.4) (1.8) (9.8) (15.8) (26.5)
Earnings reported 18.2 30.6 29.7 31.1 31.0 31.9 34.8 36.9 103.2 109.6 134.5 240.4
Earnings (Adjusted) 18.5 31.3 29.5 31.1 31.0 31.9 34.8 36.9 99.6 110.5 134.5 240.4
EPS Reported $0.07 $0.11 $0.11 $0.11 $0.11 $0.12 $0.13 $0.14 $0.39 $0.40 $0.49 $0.88
EPS Adjusted $0.07 $0.12 $0.11 $0.11 $0.11 $0.12 $0.13 $0.14 $0.38 $0.41 $0.49 $0.88
Gold price assumptions: 2011 US$1570/oz, 2012 US$1763/oz, 2013 US$2000/oz, and long-term as of 2015 US$1600/oz
Source: Company data, Stifel Nicolaus estimates
Cash Flow Statement
(US$million except per share data)
F.Y.E. Dec. 31 Mar-11A Jun-11A Sep-11A Dec-11E Mar-12E Jun-12E Sep-12E Dec-12E 2010A 2011E 2012E 2013E
Earnings (adjusted) 18.5 31.3 29.5 31.1 31.0 31.9 34.8 36.9 99.6 110.5 134.5 240.4
Depreciation 8.1 9.7 11.0 11.2 9.9 10.0 10.2 10.7 41.9 40.1 40.8 45.5
Other 4.6 2.1 2.6 5.5 5.6 5.7 6.5 6.7 7.7 14.9 24.5 45.4
Operating Cash f low 31.2 43.2 43.1 47.9 46.4 47.6 51.5 54.3 149.2 165.4 199.8 331.2
Working Capital Changes (6.6) 2.2 (1.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.3 (5.4) 0.0 0.0
Cash Flow from Operations 24.6 45.4 42.2 47.9 46.4 47.6 51.5 54.3 161.5 160.0 199.8 331.2
Capital Expenditure (32.0) (27.0) (42.0) (46.8) (71.1) (71.1) (83.7) (83.7) (96.7) (147.8) (309.6) (200.9)
Net Investments (0.3) 0.0 3.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.4 0.0 0.0
Investing Cash Flow (32.3) (27.0) (38.3) (46.8) (71.1) (71.1) (83.7) (83.7) (96.7) (144.4) (309.6) (200.9)
Debt Additions 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Debt Repayments (3.8) (3.8) (7.5) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (20.1) (15.0) 0.0 0.0
Equity Financing 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 121.3 1.3 0.0 0.0
Other Net Financing 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.5 0.0 5.5 0.0 (8.1) 0.0 10.9 10.9
Financing Cash Flow (3.3) (3.2) (7.2) 0.0 5.5 0.0 5.5 0.0 93.2 (13.7) 10.9 10.9
Foreign Exchange (1.3) (0.6) 2.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0
Cash Increase (12.3) 14.5 (1.0) 1.1 (19.2) (23.5) (26.8) (29.4) 158.0 2.3 (98.9) 141.2
Cash Balance 208.2 222.7 221.7 222.8 203.5 180.0 153.3 123.8 220.4 222.8 123.8 265.1
Free Cash Flow (4.5) 12.4 (6.4) 1.1 (24.7) (23.5) (32.2) (29.4) 32.4 2.6 (109.9) 130.3
CFPS (adjusted) $0.11 $0.16 $0.16 $0.18 $0.17 $0.17 $0.19 $0.20 $0.57 $0.61 $0.73 $1.21
Source: Company data, Stifel Nicolaus estimates
Page 40
Metals & MiningGold & Precious Metals January 19, 2012
Balance Sheet
(US$million except per share data)
F.Y.E. Dec. 31 Mar-11A Jun-11A Sep-11A Dec-11E Mar-12E Jun-12E Sep-12E Dec-12E 2010A 2011E 2012E 2013E
Current Assets 305.5 318.1 318.7 319.7 300.5 277.0 250.2 220.8 304.4 319.7 220.8 362.0
Other Assets 314.9 331.4 360.3 395.8 457.1 518.2 591.7 664.7 277.7 395.8 664.7 820.1
Total Assets 620.4 649.5 678.9 715.6 757.6 795.2 841.9 885.5 582.1 715.6 885.5 1,182.1
Current Liabilities 79.0 74.6 69.1 69.1 69.1 69.1 69.1 69.1 72.8 69.1 69.1 69.1
Long Term Debt 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other Liabilities 19.0 21.0 25.5 31.0 36.6 42.3 48.8 55.5 3.0 31.0 55.5 100.9
Total Liabilities 98.1 95.6 94.6 100.1 105.7 111.4 117.9 124.6 87.6 100.1 124.6 169.9
Shareholder's Equity 522.3 553.9 584.4 615.5 651.9 683.8 724.0 760.9 494.4 615.5 760.9 1,012.2
Shares (End of Period) (MM) 272.47 272.76 272.84 272.84 272.84 272.84 272.84 272.84 272.24 272.84 272.84 272.84
Book Value per Share $1.92 $2.03 $2.14 $2.26 $2.39 $2.51 $2.65 $2.79 $1.82 $2.26 $2.79 $3.71
Source: Company data, Stifel Nicolaus estimates
Operating Summary
F.Y.E. Dec. 31 Mar-11A Jun-11A Sep-11A Dec-11E Mar-12E Jun-12E Sep-12E Dec-12E 2010A 2011E 2012E 2013E
Production (koz)
Kiniero (85.0%), Guinea 5.0 5.4 5.2 - - - - - 30.1 15.6 - -
Samira Hill (80.0%), Niger 9.8 10.6 11.2 15.1 14.5 14.5 13.7 13.7 51.3 46.7 56.4 75.0
Mana (90.0%), Burkina Faso 45.2 47.8 45.1 49.7 49.6 50.0 51.7 51.7 179.7 187.8 203.1 272.5
Equity Production 60.0 63.8 61.5 64.8 64.1 64.4 65.4 65.4 261.1 250.1 259.4 347.5
Consolidated Production 60.0 63.8 61.5 64.8 64.1 64.4 65.4 65.4 261.1 250.1 259.4 347.5
Total Cash Costs (US$/oz)
Kiniero (85.0%), Guinea $1,110 $976 $933 - - - - - $691 $1,005 - -
Samira Hill (80.0%), Niger $950 $933 $979 $931 $922 $938 $1,004 $1,024 $766 $947 $971 $1,025
Mana (90.0%), Burkina Faso $537 $575 $648 $646 $628 $664 $709 $724 $416 $602 $682 $739
Total Cash Costs $654 $660 $733 $712 $695 $726 $771 $787 $518 $690 $745 $800
Capex ($mn)
Kiniero (85.0%), Guinea 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.9 1.5 1.2 1.2
Samira Hill (80.0%), Niger 7.0 7.1 1.1 1.5 1.1 1.1 13.5 13.5 33.5 16.7 29.2 5.6
Mana (90.0%), Burkina Faso 22.7 18.0 25.3 42.7 67.2 67.2 67.4 67.4 43.8 108.7 269.2 185.4
Adjustments 1.9 1.6 15.2 2.2 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 17.6 21.0 10.0 8.7
Capex ($mn) 32.0 27.0 42.0 46.8 71.1 71.1 83.7 83.7 96.7 147.8 309.6 200.9
Source: Company data, Stifel Nicolaus estimates
Page 41
Metals & MiningGold & Precious Metals January 19, 2012
Torex Gold Resources Inc. Income Statement
(C$mn except per share data)
C.Y.E. Dec. 31 Mar-11A Jun-11A Sep-11E Dec-11E Mar-12E Jun-12E Sep-12E Dec-12E 2010A 2011E 2012E 2013E
Revenue 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Operating Costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Depreciation (0.1) (0.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (0.2) (0.1) 0.0 0.0
G&A, Expl, Other (9.6) (7.4) (9.0) (9.0) (10.5) (6.5) (6.5) (6.5) (21.1) (35.0) (30.0) (26.0)
EBIT (9.6) (7.4) (9.0) (9.0) (10.5) (6.5) (6.5) (6.5) (21.3) (35.1) (30.0) (26.0)
Net Interest 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.8 (2.8)
Unusual/Other Items (0.2) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (0.2) (0.2) 0.0 0.0
Pretax Profit (9.7) (7.3) (9.0) (9.0) (10.5) (6.4) (6.2) (6.2) (21.0) (34.9) (29.2) (28.8)
Tax 2.1 1.4 2.7 2.7 3.1 1.9 1.8 1.9 2.7 8.9 8.8 8.6
Other (0.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (0.0) 0.0 0.0
Earnings reported (7.6) (5.8) (6.3) (6.3) (7.3) (4.5) (4.3) (4.3) (18.3) (26.0) (20.5) (20.2)
Earnings (Adjusted) (7.6) (5.8) (6.3) (6.3) (7.3) (4.5) (4.3) (4.3) (18.3) (26.0) (20.5) (20.2)
EPS Reported (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.06) (0.07) (0.04) (0.03)
EPS Adjusted (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.06) (0.07) (0.04) (0.03)
Gross Operating Margin 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Gold price assumptions: 2011 US$1570/oz, 2012 US$1763/oz, and 2013 US$2000/oz
Source: Company reports, Stifel Nicolaus estimates
Cash Flow Statement
(C$mn except per share data)
C.Y.E. Dec. 31 Mar-11A Jun-11A Sep-11E Dec-11E Mar-12E Jun-12E Sep-12E Dec-12E 2010A 2011E 2012E 2013E
Earnings (adjusted) (7.6) (5.8) (6.3) (6.3) (7.3) (4.5) (4.3) (4.3) (18.3) (26.0) (20.5) (20.2)
Depreciation 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Other (1.1) (0.5) (2.7) (2.7) (3.1) (1.9) (1.8) (1.9) 5.6 (6.9) (8.8) (8.6)
Operating Cash f low (8.6) (6.2) (9.0) (9.0) (10.5) (6.4) (6.2) (6.2) (12.5) (32.8) (29.2) (28.8)
Working Capital Changes (2.3) 4.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (4.3) 2.0 0.0 0.0
Cash Flow from Operations (10.9) (2.0) (9.0) (9.0) (10.5) (6.4) (6.2) (6.2) (16.7) (30.8) (29.2) (28.8)
Capital Expenditure (0.3) (0.1) (6.0) (2.0) (5.0) (5.0) (5.0) (60.0) (0.8) (8.4) (75.0) (240.0)
Net Investments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (52.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0
Investing Cash Flow (0.3) (0.1) (6.0) (2.0) (5.0) (5.0) (5.0) (60.0) (52.9) (8.4) (75.0) (240.0)
Debt Additions 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
Debt Repayments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Equity Financing 4.2 1.6 0.0 0.0 50.0 300.0 0.0 0.0 51.7 5.7 350.0 200.0
Other Net Financing 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Financing Cash Flow 4.2 1.6 0.0 0.0 50.0 300.0 0.0 0.0 51.7 5.7 350.0 300.0
Foreign Exchange 0.1 (0.1) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Cash Increase (6.8) (0.6) (15.0) (11.0) 34.5 288.6 (11.2) (66.2) (17.8) (33.4) 245.8 31.2
Cash Balance 47.1 46.5 31.5 20.5 55.1 343.6 332.5 266.3 53.9 20.5 266.3 297.5
Free Cash Flow (8.9) (6.4) (15.0) (11.0) (15.5) (11.4) (11.2) (66.2) (13.3) (41.2) (104.2) (268.8)
CFPS (adjusted) (0.02) (0.02) (0.03) (0.03) (0.03) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.04) (0.09) (0.06) (0.04)
Source: Company reports, Stifel Nicolaus estimates
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Metals & MiningGold & Precious Metals January 19, 2012
Balance Sheet
(C$mn except per share data)
C.Y.E. Dec. 31 Mar-11A Jun-11A Sep-11E Dec-11E Mar-12E Jun-12E Sep-12E Dec-12E 2010A 2011E 2012E 2013E
Current Assets 57.3 50.7 35.7 24.8 59.3 347.8 336.7 270.5 58.1 24.8 270.5 301.7
Other Assets 300.6 298.2 304.2 306.2 311.2 316.2 321.2 381.2 301.2 306.2 381.2 621.2
Total Assets 357.9 348.9 340.0 331.0 370.5 664.1 657.9 651.8 359.2 331.0 651.8 922.9
Current Liabilities 5.4 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 1.3 3.7 3.7 3.7
Long Term Debt 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
Other Liabilities 69.7 67.5 64.8 62.1 59.0 57.1 55.2 53.4 72.1 62.1 53.4 44.7
Total Liabilities 75.2 71.2 68.6 65.9 62.7 60.8 58.9 57.1 73.4 65.9 57.1 148.4
Shareholder's Equity 282.7 277.7 271.4 265.1 307.8 603.3 599.0 594.7 285.9 265.1 594.7 774.5
Shares (End of Period) (mn) 352.05 352.05 352.05 352.05 393.71 643.71 643.71 643.71 345.08 352.05 643.71 810.38
Book Value per Share 0.80 0.79 0.77 0.75 0.78 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.83 0.75 0.92 0.96
Source: Company reports, Stifel Nicolaus estimates
Operating Summary
C.Y.E. Dec. 31 Mar-11A Jun-11A Sep-11E Dec-11E Mar-12E Jun-12E Sep-12E Dec-12E 2010A 2011E 2012E 2013E
Production (koz)
Morelos Open Pit (100.0%), Mexico - - - - - - - - - - - -
Adjustments/Other - - - - - - - - - - - -
Equity Production - - - - - - - - - - - -
Total Cash Costs (US$/oz)
Morelos Open Pit (100.0%), Mexico - - - - - - - - - - - -
Total Cash Costs - - - - - - - - - - - -
Capex ($mn)
Morelos Open Pit (100.0%), Mexico 11 6 6 2 5 5 5 60 50 25 75 240
Other (11) (6) - - - - - - (49) (17) - -
Capex ($mn) 0.3 0.1 6.0 2.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 60.0 0.8 8.4 75.0 240.0
Operating Margin (%)
Morelos Open Pit (100.0%), Mexico - - - - - - - - - - - -
Other - - - - - - - - - - - -
Operating Margin 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Source: Company reports, Stifel Nicolaus estimates
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Metals & MiningGold & Precious Metals January 19, 2012
Important Disclosures and Certifications
We, Josh Wolfson and George Topping, certify that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflectour personal views about the subject securities or issuers; and We, Josh Wolfson and George Topping, certify thatno part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation or viewscontained in this research report. For our European Conflicts Management Policy go to the research page atwww.stifel.com.
For applicable current disclosures for all covered companies please visit the Research Page at www.stifel.com or write to theStifel Nicolaus Research Department at the following address.
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Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Inc.'s research analysts receive compensation that is based upon (among other factors) StifelNicolaus' overall investment banking revenues.
Our investment rating system is three tiered, defined as follows:
BUY -For U.S. securities we expect the stock to outperform the S&P 500 by more than 10% over the next 12 months. ForCanadian securities we expect the stock to outperform the S&P/TSX Composite Index by more than 10% over the next 12months. For other non-U.S. securities we expect the stock to outperform the MSCI World Index by more than 10% over thenext 12 months. For yield-sensitive securities, we expect a total return in excess of 12% over the next 12 months for U.S.securities as compared to the S&P 500, for Canadian securities as compared to the S&P/TSX Composite Index, and for othernon-U.S. securities as compared to the MSCI World Index.
HOLD -For U.S. securities we expect the stock to perform within 10% (plus or minus) of the S&P 500 over the next 12months. For Canadian securities we expect the stock to perform within 10% (plus or minus) of the S&P/TSX CompositeIndex. For other non-U.S. securities we expect the stock to perform within 10% (plus or minus) of the MSCI World Index. AHold rating is also used for yield-sensitive securities where we are comfortable with the safety of the dividend, but believe thatupside in the share price is limited.
SELL -For U.S. securities we expect the stock to underperform the S&P 500 by more than 10% over the next 12 months andbelieve the stock could decline in value. For Canadian securities we expect the stock to underperform the S&P/TSXComposite Index by more than 10% over the next 12 months and believe the stock could decline in value. For other non-U.S.securities we expect the stock to underperform the MSCI World Index by more than 10% over the next 12 months andbelieve the stock could decline in value.
Of the securities we rate, 51% are rated Buy, 47% are rated Hold, and 2% are rated Sell.
Within the last 12 months, Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Inc. or an affiliate has provided investment banking services for 17%,10% and 0% of the companies whose shares are rated Buy, Hold and Sell, respectively.
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Please visit the Research Page at www.stifel.com for the current research disclosures applicable to the companiesmentioned in this publication that are within Stifel Nicolaus' coverage universe. For a discussion of risks to target price pleasesee our stand-alone company reports and notes for all Buy-rated stocks.
The information contained herein has been prepared from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed by us and isnot a complete summary or statement of all available data, nor is it considered an offer to buy or sell any securities referred toherein. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and do not take into account the particular investmentobjectives, financial situation or needs of individual investors. Employees of Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Inc. or its affiliatesmay, at times, release written or oral commentary, technical analysis or trading strategies that differ from the opinionsexpressed within. Past performance should not and cannot be viewed as an indicator of future performance.
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Metals & MiningGold & Precious Metals January 19, 2012
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Metals & MiningGold & Precious Metals January 19, 2012
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