supply chain index webinar june 11 final
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Consumer Value Networks: How Do You Measure UP?
The Supply Chain Index
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Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2014, p. 2
Supply Chain Insights is focused on delivering independent, actionable and objective advice for
supply chain leaders.
A company dedicated to research, turn to us when you want the latest insights
on supply chain trends, technologies to know and metrics that matter.
About Us
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Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2014, p. 3
Presenters
Abby MayerResearch Associate
Lora CecereFounder and CEO
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Dr. George RungerProfessor, CIDSE, ASU
Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2014, p. 4
Agenda
Vision
History of Our Work
Resiliency Patterns and Mathematical Calculation
Why It Matters To You
What's Next?
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Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2014, p. 5
To develop a methodology to help supply chain leaders define supply chain improvement. To be effective, it had to:• Evaluate progress over time by peer group.• Be objective and data driven.• Compare progress of companies across currencies. • Enable the comparison of progress of companies regardless of size:
very large to mid-market companies.• Connect supply chain performance to corporate performance.• Use standardized, and available data.
Our Vision
Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2014, p. 6
Today’s Supply Chain
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Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2014, p. 7
Supply Chain Risk
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Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2014, p. 8
A Supply Chain is a Complex System
with Complex Processes
with Increasing Complexity
Our Belief
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Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2014, p. 9
Resilient and predictable
Balanced across the set of metrics to maximize value
Showing year-over-year strength against peer group
Desired Corporate Performance
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Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2014, p. 10
The Supply Chain Effective Frontier:First Representation
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Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2014, p. 11
While we like this framework, there is no good source of consistent and accurate data for:
– Forecast Accuracy– Case Fill Rate– Corporate Social Responsibility
Problem with this Framework
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Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2014, p. 12
The Supply Chain Effective Frontier: Second Representation
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In most supply chains, complexity has risen throwing the supply chain out of balance. We find that nine out of ten companies are stuck at the intersection of inventory turns and operating margin.
Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2014, p. 13
Industry Overview: 2006-2012
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Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2014, p. 14
Intersection of Operating Margin and Inventory Turns
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Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2014, p. 15
Companies Get More Serious With A Recession
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Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2014, p. 16
Agenda
Vision
History of Our Work
Resiliency Patterns and Mathematical Calculation
Supply Chain Index
What's Next?
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Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2014, p. 17
Mining 20 Years of Financial Data
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Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2014, p. 18
Correlations to Market Capitalization
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Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2014, p. 19
How to Read an Orbit Chart
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Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2014, p. 20
Supply Chain Metrics That Matter Reports
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Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2014, p. 21
Agenda
Vision
History of Our Work
Resiliency Patterns and Mathematical Calculation
Supply Chain Index
What's Next?
#sciwebinar
Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2014, p. 22
Supply Chain Metrics That Matter Reports
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What is Resiliency?
Tightness of the Pattern on the Orbit Chart for Operating Margin and Inventory Turns
Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2014, p. 23
Resiliency 2000-2012
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Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2014, p. 24
Agenda
Vision
History of Our Work
Resiliency Patterns and Mathematical Calculation
Supply Chain Index
What's Next?
#sciwebinar
Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2014, p. 25
Overall Ranking per Company• Balance: Return on Invested Capital & Revenue Growth Vector Trajectory (30%)• Strength: Inventory Turns & Operating Margin Vector Trajectory (30%)• Resiliency: Inventory Turns & Operating Margin Mean Distance (30%)• Peer: Peer Rankings by Industry (10%)
The Supply Chain IndexA new way to measure relative supply chain performance by industry, based on 4 components: balance, strength, resiliency and peer rankings.
Supply Chain Index: A Measure of Supply Chain Improvement
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Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2014, p. 26
The Index Framework
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Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2014, p. 27
Supply Chain Index
30% 30% 30% 10%
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What is the right weighting? What is the right time period?
Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2014, p. 28
An exclusive, invitation-only group of senior supply chain leaders (330 at present):• Two private networking events/year• One-on-one networking as needed• Invitations to rank companies for the
Supply Chain Index (one per company)• Monthly calls on specific topics
Shaman’s Circle
Retail
Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2014, p. 30
Supply Chain Index: Retail2006-2012
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Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2014, p. 31
Wal-Mart and Target(2000-2012)
Source: Supply Chain Insights LLC, Corporate Annual Reports 2000-2012
0.05 0.06 0.07 0.085
6
7
8
9
10
2000
2012
20002012
Target Corporation Wal-Mart Stores, Inc.
Operating Margin
Inv
en
tory
Tu
rns
Best Scenario
TGT0.06, 6.2
WMT0.06, 7.8
Average (Operating Margin, Inventory Turns)
Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2014, p. 32
CVS and Walgreens2000-2012
Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2014, p. 33
Retail Index:2009-2012
Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2014, p. 34
• Drug channel rises.• Kroger and Target make progress. Sainsbury and Costco fall.
Retail Summary
Consumer Packaged Goods
Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2014, p. 36
Supply Chain Index: Consumer Products2006-2012
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Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2014, p. 37
Colgate and P&G(2000-2012)
Source: Supply Chain Insights LLC, Corporate Annual Reports 2000-2012
0.10 0.15 0.20 0.254
5
6
7
2000
2012 2000
2012
Colgate-Palmolive Company Procter & Gamble Company
Operating Margin
Inv
en
tory
Tu
rns
Best Scenario
CL0.21, 5.7
PG0.18, 5.7
Average (Operating Margin, Inventory Turns)
Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2014, p. 38
P&G and Unilever2000-2012
Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2014, p. 39
Supply Chain Index: Consumer Products2009-2012
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Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2014, p. 40
• Beauty category gains ground. Heavier CPG products lose ground as the cost of transportation increases.
• L’Oreal, Beiersdorf and Unilever improve. Colgate falls.
Consumer Products Comparison
Food and Beverage
Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2014, p. 42
Supply Chain Index: Food and Beverage2006-2012
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Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2014, p. 43
Campbell Soup and Hershey(2000-2013)
Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2014, p. 44
General Mills and Kellogg’s2000-2012
Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2014, p. 45
Supply Chain Index: Food and Beverage2009-2012
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Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2014, p. 46
• Nestle, Smuckers, PepsiCo, Inbev and Conagra make significant gains.
• General Mills and Coca-Cola Enterprises fall.
Food and Beverage Comparison
Chemical
Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2014, p. 48
Supply Chain Index: Chemical2006-2012
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Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2014, p. 49
Inventory Turns vs. Operating Margin(2000-2012)
Source: Supply Chain Insights LLC, Corporate Annual Reports 2000-2012
0.00 0.10 0.20 0.303
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5
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8
2000
2012
2000
2012
BASF SE E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Company
Operating Margin
Inv
en
tory
Tu
rns
Best Scenario
BAS0.10, 5.3
DD0.10, 4.0
Average (Operating Margin, Inventory Turns)
Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2014, p. 50
Supply Chain Index: Chemical2009-2012
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Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2014, p. 51
• BASF and Dow Chemical move up the stack. • Dow improves post Rohm and Haas acquisition.• DuPont, FMC and Ecolab drop in the rankings.
Insights on Chemical
Apparel
Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2014, p. 53
Supply Chain Index: Apparel2006-2012
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Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2014, p. 54
VF and Hanes Brands
Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2014, p. 55
Supply Chain Index: Apparel2009-2012
Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2014, p. 56
• Hanes, Nike and Columbia Sportswear rise in the ranking. VF falls due to M&A and coalition rationalization strategies.
Insights on Apparel
Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2014, p. 57
• Retail: Dollar General and Kohl’s• CPG: L’Oreal, Beiersdorf and Estee Lauder• Food: Campbell’s, Hershey and Nestle• Chemical: Lanxess, Monsanto, and BASF• Apparel: Hanes, Columbia Sportswear and VF
Our Winners Circle
Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2014, p. 58
• Nine out of ten companies are stuck on the Effective Frontier. The project approach versus a clear operating strategy is detrimental.
• Supply chain resiliency is improving. However, the lack of resiliency of contract manufacturing and 3PLs should be a risk concern for manufacturers.
• The Index favors companies with a high ROIC. Companies that have increased complexity, lost margin and have not more fully utilized assets are penalized in the rankings.
What Have We Learned?
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Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2014, p. 59
Agenda
Vision
History of Our Work
Resiliency Patterns and Mathematical Calculation
Supply Chain Index
What's Next?
#sciwebinar
Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2014, p. 60
Next Steps
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• Supply Chain Index Webinars• July 17- Healthcare Value Network• August 12- Industrial Value Network
• Monthly Research Reports• June 17- Consumer Value Network• July 22- Healthcare Value Network• August 19- Industrial Value Network
• Final analysis of companies to be revealed at the 2014 Supply Chain Insights Global Summit
Questions?
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Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2014, p. 62
Annual Event
Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2014, p. 63
Metrics That Matter
• Lora Cecere’s 2nd book: Metrics That Matter
• To publish in Fall 2014
http://tinyurl.com/metricsthatmatter
Pre-orders available on Amazon:
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Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2014, p. 64
What’s Happening at Supply Chain Insights?
www.supplychaininsights.com
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Supply Chain Insights LLC Copyright © 2014, p. 65
About Lora Cecere
• Founder of Supply Chain Insights
• Invited to be a “LinkedIn Influencer”
• Invited to write a guest blog for Forbes
• Author of 2 books: Bricks Matter (2012) and Metrics That Matter (to publish Fall of 2014)
• Partner at Altimeter Group (leader in open research)
• 7 years of Management Experience leading Analyst Teams at Gartner and AMR Research
• 8 years Experience in Marketing and Selling Supply Chain Software at Descartes Systems Group and Manugistics (now JDA)
• 15 Years Leading teams in Manufacturing and Distribution operations for Clorox, Kraft/General Foods, Nestle/Dreyers Grand Ice Cream and Procter & Gamble.
Contact Information: • Email: lora.cecere@supplychaininsights.com• Blog: www.supplychainshaman.com (6000 pageviews/month)• Forbes: http://www.forbes.com/search/?q=lora+cecere• Twitter: lcecere (4800 followers)• LinkedIn: linkedin.com/pub/lora-cecere/0/196/573 (7000 in the network)
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