sustainable development policies and measures:
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Sustainable Development Sustainable Development Policies and Measures: Policies and Measures: Putting development first in a Putting development first in a
carbon-constrained world.carbon-constrained world.
BASIC MEETING
February, 2005
Jonathan PershingClimate, Energy and Pollution ProgramWorld Resources Institute
B A S I C
450 high
550 high
Higher Emissions = Higher Risks
Source: IPCC TAR, 2001
450 low550 low
0
1,500
3,000
4,500
6,000
7,500
9,000
10,500
12,000
13,500
15,000
World Developed Developing
57%
35%84%
Mil
lion
s of
Ton
s of
Carb
on
Eq
uiv
.
0
300
600
900
1,200
1,500
1,800
2,100
2,400
2,700
3,000
U.S . China E.U. FSU India Africa Brazil Japan Mexico
Projected emissions, 2025
2000 Emissions
39%
118%
19%42%
70%80% 68%
26%124%
But GHG emissions are projected to continue to increase…
Source: WRI CAIT
The development challenge
Population without access to electricity, selected countries
Source: Bradley and Baumert, “Growing in the Greenhouse”
The development challenge
Motor vehicles per 1000 people, selected countries
Source: Bradley and Baumert, “Growing in the Greenhouse”
GLOBAL CO2 EMISSIONS FOR IPCC/SRES SCENARIO GROUPS
A commitment to implement a policy or measure – not based on GHG emissions, but where the development path results in lowered emissions.•Driven by host country development needs.•Large-scale policies and measures, not projects.•Development path chosen results in significantly lower emissions.•Declared and registered under the international climate framework.
What is an SD-PAM?
Looking at real-world examples
BrazilBiofuels for transportReducing the economic impact of oil imports and supporting the rural economy
ChinaInnovative transport approachesPromoting mobility while avoiding urban infrastructure and oil supply constraints
South AfricaCarbon capture and storageFinding ways to reduce the impact of coal in developing countries
IndiaRenewable energy in rural electrificationProviding electricity faster and safer to 500 million people
India’s rural electrification: 500-600 million people without electricity.Three supply scenarios:
–Grid First–Diesel First–Renewables First
Three levels of rural electricity demand.
India – options for rural electrification
Source: Dubash and Bradley
Approaches are evaluated by India’s national criteria.Grid First offers little hope of meeting electrification goals.Diesel First raises significant oil import concerns.Renewables First brings benefits but at significant capital cost – can international policy help?
India – a wider potential role for renewable energy
Qualitative assessment of the scenarios
CO2 emissions under the scenarios
Source: Dubash and Bradley
Motor Vehicle Shares of Criteria Pollutants in Chinese Cities
Source: Schipper and Ng, 2005
City
CO (%) HC (%) NOx (%)
Beijing (2000)
77 78 40
Shanghai (1996)
86 96 56
Guangzhou (2000)
84 50 45
Oil Production, Consumption and Imports for China
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1974
1979
1984
1989
1994
1999
2004
Consumption
Production
Exports
Mil
lions
of
tons
of
oil e
quiv
.
Figure 2. Oil Production, Consumption, and Exports in China
Source & Notes: IEA, 2004b, with estimates for 2003 and 2004 based on BP, 2004 and 2005. Negative values indicate imports.
Source: Schipper and Ng, 2005
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
2003
: Roa
d
2005
2010
2015
2020
Oil Sav
ed20
0520
1020
1520
20
Inte
grat
ed T
rans
port
2005
2010
2015
2020
Year
Car
bo
n E
mis
sio
ns
(Mt)
0
0.01
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0.07
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0.09
0.1
Car
bo
n(k
g)/
km
Electric Cars
CNG
Oil
Carbon/km
Three scenarios for China: Energy and Carbon from Motor Vehicles
Source: Schipper and Ng, 2005
0
20
40
60
80
100
En
erg
y U
se f
or
Car
s, b
y so
urc
e, M
TO
E
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
Gas
olin
e eq
uiv
, mn
bb
l per
day
Electricity, as Primary Energy
CNG
Oil in Hybrids
Oil in Conventional GasolineCars
• Fitting SD-PAMs into future climate agreements
– Consistent with UNFCCC & KP (including evolving CDM)
– Could be implemented through new arrangements
• Financing SD-PAMs– Allows funding from both climate resources (including GEF,
CDM etc) and non-climate resources (FDI, World Bank, etc.)– Still inadequate to development (and climate) needs
• Limitations of SD-PAMs– Does not substitute for mitigation by developed countries – Not appropriate for every technology or policy. – Implementation, on the scale needed, may not attract sufficient
funding.
Implementing SD PAMS
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