symposium on evidence based decision making

Symposium on evidence based decision making

The role of Analysis Phase in the development of Integrated Development

Plans (IDPs)

Themba MohotoStatistics South Africa

10 October 2013

PRESENTATION CONTENT

Observations Integrate Development Planning In-depth Analysis of available data Overview of the Analysis Phase of the IDP

process Percentage indicators used in Free State Indicators from Census 2011 as primary

source of data Conclusion

GENERAL OBSERVATIONS

The following observations are made with regard to

some IDPs:• The documents cover different financial years.

Therefore the contexts and circumstances differ.• The IDPs do not provide enough statistical

information to substantiate the claims that have been made in the documents.

• The qualitative AND quantitative analysis of the IDPs is very shallow. Documents simply mention some areas as being problematic without providing context and explanation to justify the claim.

• Indicators are not standardised nor classified in such a way that relevant outputs can be linked to outcomes. This leads to difficulty in implementing monitoring and evaluation (M&E))

• Insufficient data to support the development of plans

INTEGRATED DEVELOPMENT PLANNING

Integrated Development Planning is an approach to planning that involves the entire municipality and its citizens in finding the best solutions to achieve good long-term development.

An Integrated Development Plan is a super plan for an area that gives an overall framework for development. It aims to co-ordinate the work of local and other spheres of government in a coherent plan to improve the quality of life for all the people living in an area.

INTEGRATED DEVELOPMENT PLANNING

• Before starting the planning, an IDP Process Plan must be drawn up. This plan is meant to ensure the proper management of the planning process.

• The process undertaken to produce the IDP consists of 5 phases:

PHASE 1: ANALYSIS (Stats SA) PHASE 2: STRATEGIES PHASE 3: PROJECTS PHASE 4: INTEGRATION PHASE 5: APPROVAL

IN-DEPTH ANALYSIS OF DATA

• In-depth analysis provides an overall spatial picture of the municipality in terms of the current situation, patterns and trends within the municipal area.

• Information gathering should be focused on the implications for the development of the municipality area.

• The information should be systematically unpacked around key sectors:

– Bio-physical [geology, soil and climate] – Socio-economic [people and economy] – Built environment [housing, sewerage, transport]

ANALYSIS MATRIX

.

Communities

Bio-Physical Environment

Built Environment

Socio/EconomicEnvironment

• Energy• Telecoms• Solid Waste• Sewerage• Water Supply• Housing• Transport• Urban Settlement

• Agriculture• Mining• Vegetation• Topography• Hydrology• Climate• Geology & Soils

• Land Reform• Tourism• Investment• Economics• Income & Poverty• Crime• Employment• Education• Growth trends• Demography

Components of the Matrix

BUILT ENVIRONMENT SOCIO-ECONOMIC BIO-PHYSICAL

EnergyTelecoms

Sound wasteSewerage

Water SupplyHousing

TransportUrban Settlement

Land reformTourism

InvestmentsEconomy

Income & PovertyCrime

EmploymentHealth

EducationGrowth trendsDemography

AgricultureMining

VegetationTopographyHydrology

ClimateGeology & Soil

BUILT ENVIRONMENT

SOCIO-ECONOMICENVIRONMENT

BIO-PHYSICALENVIRONMENT

EnergyTelecoms

Sound wasteSewerage

Water SupplyHousing

TransportUrban Settlement

Land reformTourism

InvestmentsEconomy

Income & PovertyCrime

EmploymentHealth

EducationGrowth trendsDemography

AgricultureMining

VegetationTopographyHydrology

ClimateGeology & Soil

OVERVIEW OF THE ANALYSIS PHASE OF THE IDP

In-depth analysis of Priority Issues:

Municipality-level Analysis

Economic Analysis Environmental Analysis Institutional Analysis Spatial Analysis

Socio-economic Analysis

DETAILS OF ANALYSIS PHASE

Migration

12

Development

IMPACT ON ENVIRONMENT

13

SOCIO-ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT

Age

Sex

Size

Spatial DistributionMovement

SUSTAINABLE URBAN DEVELOPMENT

POLITICAL

SUSTAINABLEURBAN

DEVELOPMENT

SOCIALECONOMIC

EVIRONMENTAL DEMOGRAPHIC

• Role of the state• Democratic institutions• Participatory planning

• Urban fiscal base• Access to adequate income

• Basic needs• Human rights

• Fertility• Migration• Ethnicity

• Sustainable use of renewable resources• Minimal use of non-renewable resources• Appropriate physical planning

PERCENTAGE OF SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHIC

INDICATORS USED IN FREE

IDP Indicators used – FS District and Metro

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Perc

enta

ge

no indicator 60% 54% 56% 65% 51%

% of variable used 40% 46% 44% 35% 49%

LejweleputswaMangaung

MetroXhariep

Thabo Mofutsanyana

Fezile Dabi

IDP Sources used – FS District and Metro

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Perc

enta

ge

Nothing said 59.7% 55.6% 55.6% 59.7% 56.9%

Own 18.1% 23.6% 8.3% 36.1% 26.4%

No Source 4.2% 0.0% 12.5% 2.8% 1.4%

Other 15.3% 2.8% 1.4% 1.4% 8.3%

Stats SA&Other 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Stats SA 2.8% 18.1% 22.2% 0.0% 6.9%

Lejweleputswa Mangaung Metro XhariepThabo

MofutsanyanaFezile Dabi

Number of Indicators within Municipalities

Matjhabe

ng

Nala Tokologo

Masilonyane

Tswelopel

e

Le-jweleputswa

Mo-hoka

re

Letsemen

g

Naledi

Ko-panong

Mangaun

g

Xhariep

Maluti a Pho-fung

Nketoana

Mantsop

a

Dih-labeng

Phumele

la

Set-soto

Thabo

Mo-fut-san-yana

Moqhaka

Mafube

Ng-wath

e

Met-simaholo

Fez-ile

Dabi

% of variable used

0.37500000000000

1

0.125

0.20833333333333

4

0.30555555555555

6

0.68055555555555

6

0.40277777777777

8

0.38888888888889

0.30555555555555

6

0.34722222222222

3

0.44444444444444

5

0.45833333333333

3

0.44444444444444

5

0.30555555555555

6

0.25 0.37500000000000

1

0.45833333333333

3

0.34722222222222

3

0.37500000000000

1

0.34722222222222

3

0.43055555555555

6

0.29166666666666

7

0.48611111111111

1

0.47222222222222

2

0.48611111111111

1

no indicator

0.62500000000000

1

0.87500000000000

1

0.79166666666666

7

0.69444444444444

6

0.31944444444444

5

0.59722222222222

2

0.61111111111111

2

0.69444444444444

6

0.65277777777777

9

0.55555555555555

6

0.54166666666666

7

0.55555555555555

6

0.69444444444444

6

0.75000000000000

1

0.62500000000000

1

0.54166666666666

7

0.65277777777777

9

0.62500000000000

1

0.65277777777777

9

0.56944444444444

5

0.70833333333333

4

0.51388888888888

9

0.52777777777777

8

0.51388888888888

9

5%

15%

25%

35%

45%

55%

65%

75%

85%

95%P

erc

en

tage

WHAT CENSUS 2011 PROVIDES

CATEGORIES OF INDICATORS FROM CENSUS 2011

INDICATOR CATEGORY QUESTIONS

Section A: Demographics 6

Section B: Migration 13

Section C: General Health and Functioning 2

Section D: Parental Survival and Income 5

Section E: Education 6

Section E: Employment 13

Section G: Fertility 10

Section H: Housing, Household Services and Agriculture 20

Section I: Mortality in the Last 12 Months 10

TOTAL 85

DEMOGRAPHIC VARIABLES FROM CENSUS 2011

INDICATOR MEANING IMPLICATION FOR ANALYSIS

Date of birth This questions seeks to determine the date in which the responded was respondent born

Population size and spatial distribution by administrative unit and locality

Relationship This questions seeks to determine the relationship of the respondent to the head of the household

Socio-cultural characteristics of the population (ethnic group, language, religion, etc.)

Marital Status This questions seeks to determine the marital status of the respondent

Reproductive behaviour patterns of the population (fertility, contraceptive practice, family size, household size and composition, etc.)

Spouse or Partner This questions seeks to determine who in the household is the spouse or partner

Reproductive behaviour patterns of the population (fertility, contraceptive practice, family size, household size and composition, etc.)

Population Group This questions seeks to determine the population group of the respondent

Socio-cultural characteristics of the population (ethnic group, language, religion, etc.)

Language This questions seeks to determine the language of the respondent

Socio-cultural characteristics of the population (ethnic group, language, religion, etc.)

OTHER SOURCES OF DATA e.g. schools

SECONDARY DATA FROM EMIS DATABASE

SECONDARY DATA FROM EMIS DATABASE

CONCLUSIONS

• There is a challenge in making comparisons between metropolitan and district municipalities. This is because of the sheer size and different levels of complexity between them.

• The Analysis Phase is the most critical area in the IDP development

• The prerequisite for success in this area is to find relevant data

• Stats SA provide primary data but there is also secondary data in the form of administrative data

• It is recognised that necessary skills are required in this area

• There a number of training programs in place. What is required is alignment and partnerships

Government has committed large sums of funds for infrastructure

development. Minister of Finance Pravin Gordhan in his National

Budget Speech 2013 said R827 billion on infrastructure projects

over the next three years is to be drawn from the fiscus and state-

owned enterprises. How to plan for this properly

Andreu (1998) speaks of the TUNNEL EFFECT

of contemporary networked infrastructure – the way and infrastructure can traverse space for those using it whilst simultaneously excluding

those who inhabit the immediate geographical environment

Graham, S (2000) ) “Introduction: cities and infrastructure networks”

THANK YOUThank you!