system dynamics model of recycling scenarios

System Dynamics of Recycling Scenarios

Rebecca Pickens, NorthStar Initiative for Sustainable Enterprise, University of Minnesota

WE12 Conference – Houston, TX – November 9, 2012

• In the US, 8% of plastics are recycled, compared with a

34% overall recycling rate (EPA 2011)

• Plastic Bottles recycled at higher rates (29.2% for PET

and 27.5% for HDPE)

• Rigid Plastics and Film Plastics compose the majority

of plastic volume available in landfills, yet have

relatively low recycling rates

Plastics Recycling

• Reduced Energy Use

• Reduced Global

Warming &

Acidification Potential

• Solid Waste Diversion

from Landfills

• Local Economic

Impacts

Plastics Recycling Policies

• Policy Changes: mandating collection of all plastics,

extended producer responsibility laws and

voluntary programs

Consumption

of Plastic

Goods

Post-Industrial

Virgin Plastic

Resin Reprocessors

Recycled Plastics

Brokers & Contracts

Landfill

Recycling

MRFs

Waste-to-Energy

International

MarketsFood

Packaging

Plastic Disposed

Waste-to-Fuel

Non-Food

Packaging

Food-Grade

Recycled

Plastic Resin

Sorted Plastic

Bales

Cleaned,

Recycled

Plastic Flake

Mixed Plastic

Bales

Recycled

Plastic Resin

Dirty,

Recycled

Plastic Grind

Plastic

Products

Converters

Food-Grade

Converters

Post-CommercialBrand Owners

Post-ConsumerRecycling Plastics

Consumption

of Plastic

Goods

Post-Industrial

Virgin Plastic

Resin Reprocessors

Recycled Plastics

Brokers & Contracts

Landfill

Recycling

MRFs

Waste-to-Energy

International

MarketsFood

Packaging

Plastic Disposed

Waste-to-Fuel

Non-Food

Packaging

Food-Grade

Recycled

Plastic Resin

Sorted Plastic

Bales

Cleaned,

Recycled

Plastic Flake

Mixed Plastic

Bales

Recycled

Plastic Resin

Dirty,

Recycled

Plastic Grind

Plastic

Products

Converters

Food-Grade

Converters

Post-CommercialBrand Owners

Post-ConsumerRecycling Plastics

Commingled Plastic Prices

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

6-Jul-09 22-Jan-10 10-Aug-10 26-Feb-11 14-Sep-11 1-Apr-12 18-Oct-12 6-May-13

Pri

ce (

cen

ts /

lb)

Commingled (#1-#7) & Sorted Bales

National Average PET National Average Natural HDPE

National Average Colored HDPE National Average Commingled

Data Source: Waste & Recycling News, 2012

Consumption

of Plastic

Goods

Post-Industrial

Virgin Plastic

Resin Domestic Reprocessors

Recycled Plastics

Brokers & Contracts

Landfill

Recycling

MRFs

Waste-to-Energy

International

MarketsFood

Packaging

Plastic Disposed

Waste-to-Fuel

Non-Food

Packaging

Food-Grade

Recycled

Plastic Resin

Sorted Plastic

Bales

Cleaned,

Recycled

Plastic Flake

Mixed Plastic

Bales

Recycled

Plastic Resin

Dirty,

Recycled

Plastic Grind

Plastic

Products

Converters

Food-Grade

Converters

Post-CommercialBrand Owners

Post-ConsumerRecycling Plastics

Consumption

of Plastic

Goods

Post-Industrial

Virgin Plastic

Resin Domestic Reprocessors

Recycled Plastics

Brokers & Contracts

Landfill

Recycling

MRFs

Waste-to-Energy

International

MarketsFood

Packaging

Plastic Disposed

Waste-to-Fuel

Non-Food

Packaging

Food-Grade

Recycled

Plastic Resin

Sorted Plastic

Bales

Cleaned,

Recycled

Plastic Flake

Mixed Plastic

Bales

Recycled

Plastic Resin

Dirty,

Recycled

Plastic Grind

Plastic

Products

Converters

Food-Grade

Converters

Post-CommercialBrand Owners

Post-ConsumerRecycling Plastics

Bottle

Exports:

50.2% of PET

20% of HDPE

18% of PP

82% PVC

86% LDPE

Plastics Sent to MN Landfills – Calculated Tons

Data Sources: Minnesota Pollution Control Agency,

Hennepin County, and SAIC

Plastics Leaving MN Materials Recovery Facilities

Data Source: Minnesota Pollution Control Agency

Consumption

of Plastic

Goods

Post-Industrial

Virgin Plastic

Resin Reprocessors

Recycled Plastics

Brokers & Contracts

Landfill

Recycling

MRFs

Waste-to-Energy

International

MarketsFood

Packaging

Plastic Disposed

Waste-to-Fuel

Non-Food

Packaging

Food-Grade

Recycled

Plastic Resin

Sorted Plastic

Bales

Cleaned,

Recycled

Plastic Flake

Mixed Plastic

Bales

Recycled

Plastic Resin

Dirty,

Recycled

Plastic Grind

Plastic

Products

Converters

Food-Grade

Converters

Post-CommercialBrand Owners

Post-ConsumerRecycling Plastics

Consumption

of Plastic

Goods

Post-Industrial

Virgin Plastic

Resin Reprocessors

Recycled Plastics

Brokers & Contracts

Landfill

Recycling

MRFs

Waste-to-Energy

International

MarketsFood

Packaging

Plastic Disposed

Waste-to-Fuel

Non-Food

Packaging

Food-Grade

Recycled

Plastic Resin

Sorted Plastic

Bales

Cleaned,

Recycled

Plastic Flake

Mixed Plastic

Bales

Recycled

Plastic Resin

Dirty,

Recycled

Plastic Grind

Plastic

Products

Converters

Food-Grade

Converters

Post-CommercialBrand Owners

Post-ConsumerRecycling Plastics

Consumption

of Plastic

Goods

Post-Industrial

Virgin Plastic

Resin Reprocessors

Recycled Plastics

Brokers & Contracts

Landfill

Recycling

MRFs

Waste-to-Energy

International

MarketsFood

Packaging

Plastic Disposed

Waste-to-Fuel

Non-Food

Packaging

Food-Grade

Recycled

Plastic Resin

Sorted Plastic

Bales

Cleaned,

Recycled

Plastic Flake

Mixed Plastic

Bales

Recycled

Plastic Resin

Dirty,

Recycled

Plastic Grind

Plastic

Products

Converters

Food-Grade

Converters

Post-CommercialBrand Owners

Post-ConsumerRecycling Plastics

Investment Decision Model

Capacity Scenario Base Case – Preliminary Results

1:06 AM Thu, Sep 27, 2012

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Years

1:

1:

1:

2:

2:

2:

3:

3:

3:

0

1500

3000

2000

3000

4000

0

250

500

1: PP sorting capaci ty 2: PP MN Flake Capaci ty 3: PP bales expÉed from the s tate

1

1 1 1

2

2 2 2

3 3 3 3

1:14 AM Thu, Sep 27, 2012

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age 10.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00

Years

1:

1:

1:

2:

2:

2:

3:

3:

3:

15000

18000

21000

0

15000

30000

-5000

5000

15000

1: PET sorting capacity 2: rPET MN Flake Capacity 3: PET ba les exÉed from the s tate

1

1 1 1

2

2

2 2

3

3

33

1:23 AM Thu, Sep 27, 2012

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Tim e

1:

1:

1:

2:

2:

2:

3:

3:

3:

10000

12500

15000

29999

30000

30001

-1

0

1

1: HDPE s orting capacity 2: HDPE MN Flake Capacity 3: HDPE bales eÉd from the state

1

1

1

1

2 2 2 23 3 3 3

PET HDPE

PP

Pricing Analysis

$(150.00)

$(100.00)

$(50.00)

$-

$50.00

$100.00

$150.00

15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55

Bale-to-Flake Price Difference (cents/lb)

Preliminary NPV Estimate (in $1,000)

for a 10,000 Ton PET Flake Plant

NPV (Millions of Dollars)

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

28-May-05 10-Oct-06 22-Feb-08 6-Jul-09 18-Nov-10 1-Apr-12 14-Aug-13

HDPE Flake-to-Bale Difference

(cents/lb)

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

28-May-05 10-Oct-06 22-Feb-08 6-Jul-09 18-Nov-10 1-Apr-12 14-Aug-13

PET Flake-to-Bale Difference

(cents/lb)

Historical Prices from:

Waste & Recycling News and Plastics News

7:25 PM Mon, Nov 05, 2012

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Page 10.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00

Years

1:

1:

1:

2:

2:

2:

3:

3:

3:

0

1500

3000

2000

3000

4000

0

250

500

1: PP sorting capaci ty 2: PP MN Flake Capaci ty 3: PP bales expÉed from the s tate

1

1 1 1

2

2 2 23

3 3 3

Capacity Scenario 2005-2012 Price Variation Example – Preliminary

Results

PP

PETHDPE

7:02 PM Mon, Nov 05, 2012

Untitled

age 10.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00

Years

1:

1:

1:

2:

2:

2:

3:

3:

3:

15000

18000

21000

0

15000

30000

-5000

5000

15000

1: PET sorting capacity 2: rPET MN Flake Capacity 3: PET bales exÉed from the s tate

1

1 1 1

2

2

2

2

3

3

3

3

PET

• Increased plastics recycling could have

environmental benefits

• Rigid plastics and film plastics are good

opportunities for increased volume diversion

• Price variability and volume constraints limit the

potential for new plastics processing in the state

Conclusions

Association of Postconsumer Plastic Recyclers and American Chemistry Council. (2011). 2010 United States National Post-Consumer Plastics Bottle Recycling Report.

Lazarevic, D., Aoustin, E., Buclet, N., & Brandt, N. (2010). Plastic waste management in the context of a European recycling society: Comparing results and uncertainties in a life cycle perspective. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 55(2), 246–259.

Ford, A. Modeling the Environment, 2nd Ed. (2010). Island Press.

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (2011). Municipal Solid Waste Generation ,

Recycling , and Disposal in the United States : Facts and Figures for 2010.

Stella Software for System Dynamics Modeling: http://www.iseesystems.com/

Vensim Software for System Dynamics Modeling: http://www.vensim.com/

Resources

• Professor Timothy Smith, Director, NorthStar

Initiative for Sustainable Enterprise

• Hennepin County, Minnesota Pollution Control

Agency, Minnesota Technical Assistance Program,

Resource Recycling Systems, Keep America Beautiful,

Aspen Research

Thank you

Questions?