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Web Appendix for “Taking the Easy Way Out: How the
GED Testing Program Induces Students to Drop Out”
James J. Heckman, John Eric Humphries, Paul A. LaFontaine,
and Pedro L. Rodrıguez
First draft, December 2007
Revised, May 12, 2011
Contents
A Data Sources 7
B Definitions 8
B.1 Weighted GED Test Taking Rate Across Groups: . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
B.2 Overall Dropout Rate (10th-12th Grade) in state i in year t: . . . . . . . . . 9
B.3 Upper Level Dropout Rate (12th Grade) in state i in year t: . . . . . . . . . 9
B.4 Lower Level Dropout Rate (10th-11th Grade) in state i in year t: . . . . . . 9
B.5 Cohort Completion Rates (8th, 9th, or 10th) in district i in year t: . . . . . . 10
C Supplementary Materials for the 1997 Increase in Passing Standards 11
D Robustness Checks for the Effect of the 1997 Increase in Passing Standards 16
D.1 Alternate Control Group . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
D.2 Southern States Only . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
D.3 Excluding States that Changed Minimum Age Requirements . . . . . . . . . 20
D.4 Excluding Additional Years from the Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
D.5 Extending the GED Testing and Dropout Rate Trends . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
E Fixed Effect Estimates of the Effect of Increasing Passing Standards 24
F Supplementary Material for the Analysis of the GED Option Program 29
G Additional Supplementary Materials 43
List of Figures
C-1 Average Pre- and Post-1997 10th-11th Grade Dropout Rate for Treatment
and Control Group . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
C-2 White Dropout Rates by Year, Treatment vs. Control States . . . . . . . . . 13
1
C-3 Black Dropout Rates by Year, Treatment vs. Control States . . . . . . . . . 14
C-4 Hispanic Dropout Rates by Year, Treatment vs. Control States . . . . . . . 15
D-1 GED Testing and Dropout Rates By Year, Treatment vs. Control States
(extended years) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
F-1 Median Days of Enrollment in GED Option, by State: 2008–09 School Year . 30
F-2 Median Preparation Hours of GED Option Candidates, by State: 2008–09
School Year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
F-3 Ninth Grade Cohort Graduation Status of GED Option Candidates, by State:
2008–09 School Year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
F-4 The Effect of Regular Schools Option Program on High School Cohort Com-
pletion Rates. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
F-5 Descriptive Comparisons of Districts with and without GED Option Programs
(2000, prior to GED Option). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
F-6 Descriptive Comparisons of Districts with and without GED Option Programs
(2000, prior to GED Option) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36
G-1 Graduation Rate Before and After Implementing the GED Program, Califor-
nia vs. All other States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44
List of Tables
D-1 Summary of Robustness Checks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
D-1 Summary of Robustness Checks (Continued) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
D-1 Summary of Robustness Checks (Continued) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
D-2 Alternative Year Specification for Change in Test Difficulty . . . . . . . . . . 21
E-1 Changes in GED Testing and Mandatory Schooling Age Requirements by
Treatment Status, 1994-2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
2
E-2 Weighted OLS Fixed Effects Estimates of the Impact of the 1997 GED Reform
on Various Dropout Rate Measures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
E-3 Summary Statistics of Variables Used in the Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
F-1 States Issuing Credentials Indistinguishable from High School Diplomas (2008)
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
F-2 The Effect of District-Wide Option Programs on Cohort Diploma Rates in
Oregon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
F-3 The Effect of District-Wide Option Programs on Cohort Other-Completer
Rates in Oregon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
F-4 The Effect of Option Programs only in Alternative Schools on Cohort Diploma
Rates in Oregon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
F-5 The Effect of Option Programs only in Alternative Schools on Cohort Other-
Completer Rates in Oregon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
F-6 The Effect of Option Programs in Traditional Schools on Cohort Diploma
Rates in Oregon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41
F-7 The Effect of Option Programs in Traditional Schools on Cohort Other-
Completer Rates in Oregon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
G-1 Fixed Effects Estimates of the Effect of the Reform on GED Test Taking Rates
by Younger Cohorts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
G-2 Fixed Effects Estimates of the Effect of the Reform on GED Test Taking Rates
by Younger Cohorts Controlling for Age Requirements . . . . . . . . . . . . 46
G-3 Fixed Effects Estimates of the Effect of the Reform on Dropout Rates (All
Races) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
G-4 Fixed Effects Estimates of the Effect of the Reform on Dropout Rates (Whites) 48
G-5 Fixed Effects Estimates of the Effect of the Reform on Dropout Rates (Blacks) 49
G-6 Fixed Effects Estimates of the Effect of the Reform on Dropout Rates (Hispanics) 50
3
G-7 Fixed Effects Estimates of the Effect of the Reform on Dropout Rates Con-
trolling for Age Requirements (All Races) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
G-8 Fixed Effects Estimates of the Effect of the Reform on Dropout Rates Con-
trolling for Age Requirements (Whites) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52
G-9 Fixed Effects Estimates of the Effect of the Reform on Dropout Rates Con-
trolling for Age Requirements (Blacks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
G-10 Fixed Effects Estimates of the Effect of the Reform on Dropout Rates Con-
trolling for Age Requirements (Hispanics) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54
G-11 Fixed Effects Estimates of the Effect of the Reform on Dropout Rates with
Minimum Score Changer States as Control Group (All Races) . . . . . . . . 55
G-12 Fixed Effects Estimates of the Effect of the Reform on Dropout Rates with
Minimum Score Changer States as Control Group (Whites) . . . . . . . . . . 56
G-13 Fixed Effects Estimates of the Effect of the Reform on Dropout Rates with
Minimum Score Changer States as Control Group (Blacks) . . . . . . . . . . 57
G-14 Fixed Effects Estimates of the Effect of the Reform on Dropout Rates with
Minimum Score Changer States as Control Group (Hispanics) . . . . . . . . 58
G-15 Fixed Effects Estimates of the Effect of the Reform on Dropout Rates Re-
stricting Sample to Southern States (All Races) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59
G-16 Fixed Effects Estimates of the Effect of the Reform on Dropout Rates Re-
stricting Sample to Southern States (Whites) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60
G-17 Fixed Effects Estimates of the Effect of the Reform on Dropout Rates Re-
stricting Sample to Southern States (Blacks) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
G-18 Fixed Effects Estimates of the Effect of the Reform on Dropout Rates Re-
stricting Sample to Southern States (Hispanics) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62
G-19 Fixed Effects Estimates of the Effect of the Reform on Dropout Rates Ex-
cluding States that Changed Minimum Age Required to Drop Out (All Races) 63
4
G-20 Fixed Effects Estimates of the Effect of the Reform on Dropout Rates Ex-
cluding States that Changed Minimum Age Required to Drop Out (Whites) 64
G-21 Fixed Effects Estimates of the Effect of the Reform on Dropout Rates Ex-
cluding States that Changed Minimum Age Required to Drop Out (Blacks) . 65
G-22 Fixed Effects Estimates of the Effect of the Reform on Dropout Rates Ex-
cluding States that Changed Minimum Age Required to Drop Out (Hispanics) 66
G-23 Fixed Effects Estimates of the Effect of the Reform on Dropout Rate Exclud-
ing States that Changed the Minimum Age Required to either Drop Out or
Take the GED (All Races) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67
G-24 Fixed Effects Estimates of the Effect of the Reform on Dropout Rate Exclud-
ing States that Changed the Minimum Age Required to either Drop Out or
Take the GED (Whites) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68
G-25 Fixed Effects Estimates of the Effect of the Reform on Dropout Rate Exclud-
ing States that Changed the Minimum Age Required to either Drop Out or
Take the GED (Blacks) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69
G-26 Fixed Effects Estimates of the Effect of the Reform on Dropout Rate Exclud-
ing States that Changed the Minimum Age Required to either Drop Out or
Take the GED (Hispanics) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70
G-27 GLS Fixed Effects Estimates of the Effect of the Reform on Dropout Rates
Controlling for Age Requirements (All Races) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
G-28 GLS Fixed Effects Estimates of the Effect of the Reform on Dropout Rates
Controlling for Age Requirements (Whites) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72
G-29 GLS Fixed Effects Estimates of the Effect of the Reform on Dropout Rates
Controlling for Age Requirements (Blacks) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73
G-30 GLS Fixed Effects Estimates of the Effect of the Reform on Dropout Rates
Controlling for Age Requirements (Hispanics) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74
5
G-31 GLS Fixed Effects Estimates of the Effect of the Reform on Dropout Rates
Controlling for Age Requirements and Using Panel Specific AR-1 Autocorre-
lation Structure (All Races) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75
G-32 GLS Fixed Effects Estimates of the Effect of the Reform on Dropout Rates
Controlling for Age Requirements and Using Panel Specific AR-1 Autocorre-
lation Structure (Whites) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76
G-33 GLS Fixed Effects Estimates of the Effect of the Reform on Dropout Rates
Controlling for Age Requirements and Using Panel Specific AR-1 Autocorre-
lation Structure (Blacks) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77
G-34 GLS Fixed Effects Estimates of the Effect of the Reform on Dropout Rates
Controlling for Age Requirements and Using Panel Specific AR-1 Autocorre-
lation Structure (Hispanics) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78
G-35 Difference-in-Difference Estimates of the Effect of the Reform on Dropout
Rates Controlling for Age Requirements and Restricting Control Group to
California and Florida (High Immigrant States) (All Races) . . . . . . . . . . 79
G-36 Difference-in-Difference Estimates of the Effect of the Reform on Dropout
Rates Controlling for Age Requirements and Restricting Control Group to
California and Florida (High Immigrant States) (Whites) . . . . . . . . . . . 80
G-37 Difference-in-Difference Estimates of the Effect of the Reform on Dropout
Rates Controlling for Age Requirements and Restricting Control Group to
California and Florida (High Immigrant States) (Blacks) . . . . . . . . . . . 81
G-38 Difference-in-Difference Estimates of the Effect of the Reform on Dropout
Rates Controlling for Age Requirements and Restricting Control Group to
California and Florida (High Immigrant States) (Hispanics) . . . . . . . . . . 82
6
A Data Sources
This article uses the Common Core of Data (CCD) to construct annual exit rates from
secondary schooling. The CCD data are collected each year by the National Center for Edu-
cation Statistics from state and local departments of education. The data provide aggregate
annual counts of enrollments and diplomas issued (excluding GED certificates, certificates of
completion and other alternative credentials) at the state, district and even school level. We
use the aggregate state counts to construct various dropout measures using the methodology
summarized in the next section. Many states do not report estimates by race for all years.
They tend to be states that do not have large minority populations and therefore our esti-
mates should not be overly biased due to their exclusion. In a very small number of cases,
the estimated dropout rate was negative and these were set to missing. We experimented
with a number of imputation procedures to correct for missing values. These were found
not to affect our results in any substantial manner. The final measures used in the paper
do not contain imputations and all estimates by race are restricted to the same sample of
states to make the estimates comparable across groups. To be included in the analysis, states
needed to have at least two observations for each dropout measure in both the pre and post
treatment periods. It was not necessary to drop any treatment states in the analysis by race.
The estimates by race should be considered more cautiously than the overall estimates due
to these data limitations. For the analysis not by race only a few state-year observations are
missing for the treatment and control states.
A summary of all the variables used in our analysis broken down by treatment status
and time period are listed in Table E-3. GED testing rates by age at the individual state
level are obtained from multiple years of the annual GED statistical reports published by the
American Council on Education (ACE). GED age requirements by state are also from this
source. Mandatory school leaving age for each state was obtained from various years of the
Digest of Education Statistics. Annual measures at the state level of unemployment rates
and per capita income were obtained from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Census
7
Bureau, respectively. Population estimates at the state level for each age are obtained from
the U.S. Census Bureau. For the California analysis, population estimates were obtained
from the California Demographic Research Unit due to a lack of data available on the state
level from the Census Bureau. Diplomas issued in California and the U.S. were obtained
from various years of the Digest of Education Statistics.
District level data on the implementation of the GED Option program were collected
from unpublished administrative records from the Oregon Department of Education. These
data include which districts implemented Option programs from its introduction in the 2001-
2002 school year, through 2008. Cohort Completion rates and additional district level data
were collected from the National Center for Educational Statistics Common Core Data.
Enrollment by grade, number of diplomas issued per year, number of other completers per
year, and district-level demographics were collected from 1998 through 2008. Additional
Data from the 2000 Census incorporated into the NCES Common Core Data on poverty
rates, median family income, and per-capita income by district were also extracted
B Definitions
B.1 Weighted GED Test Taking Rate Across Groups:
Let i denote state and t denote years. The rate is
51∑i=1
G(a)i,t
P (a)i,t
,
with i = 1, ..., 51 and t = 1994, ..., 2000, where
G(a)i,t = Number of GED Test Takers Age a in state i in year t.
P (a)i,t = Population Age a in state i in year t.
8
The number of states included in each sum is the number of states in groups 1 and 3 as
defined in the text, dropping any states with fewer than two observations per period.
B.2 Overall Dropout Rate (10th-12th Grade) in state i in year t:
DOi,t =
P (15− 17)i,t
51∑i=1
P (15− 17)i,t
·(E(10)i,t−1 + E(11)i,t−1 + E(12)i,t−1)− (E(11)i,t + E(12)i,t +Hi,t)
(E(10)i,t−1 + E(11)i,t−1 + E(12)i,t−1),
with i = 1, ..., 51 and t = 1994, ..., 2000, where
P (15− 17)i,t = Population Age 15-17 for i, t.
E(10)i,t = Enrollment in Grade 10 for i, t.
E(11)i,t = Enrollment in Grade 10 for i, t.
E(12)i,t = Enrollment in Grade 10 for i, t.
Hi,t is the number who graduate in state i at time t. These are people who were enrolled in
school in the previous year.
B.3 Upper Level Dropout Rate (12th Grade) in state i in year t:
DUi,t =
P (15− 17)i,t
51∑i=1
P (15− 17)i,t
· E(12)i,t−1 −Hi,t
E(12)i,t−1
,
with i = 1, ..., 51 and t = 1994, ..., 2000.
B.4 Lower Level Dropout Rate (10th-11th Grade) in state i in
year t:
DLi,t =
P (15− 17)i,t
51∑i=1
P (15− 17)i,t
· (E(10)i,t−1 + E(11)i,t−1)− (E(11)i,t + E(12)i,t)
(E(10)i,t−1 + E(11)i,t−1),
9
with i = 1, ..., 51 and t = 1994, ..., 2000.
Weighted dropout rates by group are obtained by summing across the states in each group.
B.5 Cohort Completion Rates (8th, 9th, or 10th) in district i in
year t:
CR =Diplomasi,t
Enrollment8th,i,t−4
CR9th,i,t =Diplomasi,t
Enrollment9th,i,t−3
CR10th,i,t =Diplomasi,t
Enrollment10th,i,t−2
with t = 2000,...,2008, where:
CRjth,i,t = Completion Rates Using Base Grade j for i, t.
Diplomasi,t = Number of Diplomas Issued for i, t.
Enrollmentjth,i,t = Number of Enrolled Students in Grade j for i, t.
10
C Supplementary Materials for the 1997 Increase in
Passing Standards
11
Fig
ure
C-1
:A
vera
geP
re-
and
Pos
t-19
9710
th-1
1th
Gra
de
Dro
pou
tR
ate
for
Tre
atm
ent
and
Con
trol
Gro
up
10.8
%
8.6
%
17.0
%
16.5
%
11.2
%
8.9
%
14.0
%
15.2
%
10.5
%
8.2
%
16.0
%
14.3
%
10.5
%
8.5
%
13.4
%13
.3%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
22%
All
Races
Wh
ites
Bla
ck
sH
isp
an
ics
Dropout RateF
igu
re 8
.A
vera
ge
Pre
-an
d P
ost
-1997 1
0th
-11th
Gra
de
Dro
po
ut
Rat
e fo
r T
reat
men
t an
d C
on
tro
l G
roup
Co
ntr
ol G
roup
Pre
-97
Tre
atm
ent
Gro
up
Pre
-97
Co
ntr
ol G
roup
Po
st-9
7T
reat
men
t G
roup
Po
st-9
7
No
te: T
he
dro
po
ut
rate
is
def
ined
as
the
rati
o o
f st
ud
ents
en
rolle
d in
a g
iven
gra
de(
s) in
yea
r t
and
th
e n
um
ber
of
stud
ents
en
rolle
d in
th
e p
revio
us
grad
e(s)
in
yea
r t-
1,
wh
ere
t =
1994-2
000. A
ll es
tim
ates
are
wei
ghte
d b
y th
e 15-1
7 y
ear
old
po
pula
tio
n in
th
e gi
ven
sta
te. T
he
plo
t ab
ove
sho
ws
the
aver
age
dro
po
ut
rate
rat
e fo
r th
e p
erio
d
pre
-1997 (
i.e. 1994-1
996)
and
po
st-1
997 (
i.e. 1998-2
000).
Co
nle
y-T
aber
ad
just
edco
nfi
den
ce in
terv
als
in p
aren
thes
es.T
reat
men
t st
ates
are
th
ose
sta
tes
that
wer
e re
quir
ed t
o
elim
inat
e th
e an
d/
or
sco
re o
pti
on
. T
hes
e in
clud
e: L
A, M
S, N
E, N
M, T
X. C
on
tro
l st
ates
are
th
ose
th
at a
lrea
dy
had
hig
h e
no
ugh
sta
nd
ard
s b
y 1997. T
hes
e in
clud
e: A
R,
CA
, CO
, DE
, D
C, F
L, ID
, K
Y, M
D, M
O, N
J, N
Y, N
D, O
K, O
R, S
D, U
T, W
A, W
V, W
I. S
tate
s w
ith
few
er t
han
tw
o o
bse
rvat
ion
s p
er p
erio
d a
re d
rop
ped
fo
r 'a
ll ra
ces'
ca
tego
ry. Sta
tes
wit
h f
ewer
th
an t
wo
ob
serv
atio
ns
per
per
iod
fo
r an
y o
f th
e d
rop
out
rate
mea
sure
s b
y ra
ce a
re d
rop
ped
fo
r b
y ra
ce c
ateg
ori
es. C
on
tro
l st
ates
dro
pp
ed f
rom
'a
ll ra
ces'
reg
ress
ion
s d
ue
to m
issi
ng
and
neg
ativ
e d
rop
out
rate
s in
clud
e: N
J. C
on
tro
l st
ates
dro
pp
ed f
rom
reg
ress
ion
by
race
due
to m
issi
ng
and
neg
ativ
e d
rop
out
rate
s in
clud
e: A
R, ID
, K
Y, M
O, N
D, N
J, N
Y, SD
, U
T, W
A, W
V. N
o t
reat
men
t st
ates
are
dro
pp
ed f
rom
an
y re
gres
sio
ns.
Sin
ce t
her
e ar
e m
ore
mis
sin
gs in
th
e d
rop
out
rate
s b
y ra
ce, th
e 'a
ll ra
ces'
cat
ego
ry is
no
t d
irec
tly
com
par
able
to
th
e ca
tego
ries
by
race
. So
urc
e: C
om
mo
n C
ore
of
Dat
a (C
CD
).
DiD
Est
imate
-0
.42%
(-1.
87%
,
0.7
4%
)
DiD
Est
imate
0.0
2%
( -1
.13%
, 1.
64%
)
DiD
Est
imate
0.3
6%
(-1.
88%
, 8.3
9%
)
DiD
Est
imate
0.2
7%
(-13
.38%
, 2.5
7%
)
Note
:T
he
dro
pou
tra
teis
defi
ned
as
the
rati
oof
stud
ents
enro
lled
ina
giv
engra
de(
s)in
yea
rt
an
dth
enu
mb
erof
stu
den
tsen
roll
edin
the
pre
vio
us
gra
de(
s)in
yea
rt−
1,
wh
ere
t=1994-2
000.
All
esti
mate
sare
wei
ghte
dby
the
15-1
7yea
rold
pop
ula
tion
inth
egiv
enst
ate
.T
he
plo
tab
ove
show
sth
eaver
age
dro
pou
tra
tefo
rth
ep
erio
dp
re-1
997
(i.e
.1994-1
996)
an
dp
ost
-1997
(i.e
.1998-2
000).
Con
ley-T
ab
erad
just
edco
nfi
den
cein
terv
als
inp
are
nth
eses
.T
reatm
ent
state
sare
those
state
sth
at
wer
ere
qu
ired
toel
imin
ate
the
an
d/or
score
op
tion
.T
hes
ein
clu
de:
LA
,M
S,
NE
,N
M,
TX
.C
ontr
ol
state
sare
those
that
alr
ead
yh
ad
hig
hen
ou
gh
stan
dard
sby
1997.
Th
ese
incl
ud
e:A
R,
CA
,C
O,
DE
,
DC
,F
L,
ID,
KY
,M
D,
MO
,N
J,
NY
,N
D,
OK
,O
R,
SD
,U
T,
WA
,W
V,
WI.
Sta
tes
wit
hfe
wer
than
two
ob
serv
ati
on
sp
erp
erio
dare
dro
pp
edfo
r’a
llra
ces’
cate
gory
.S
tate
sw
ith
few
erth
an
two
ob
serv
ati
ons
per
per
iod
for
any
of
the
dro
pou
tra
tem
easu
res
by
race
are
dro
pp
edfo
rby
race
cate
gori
es.
Contr
ol
state
sd
rop
ped
from
’all
race
s’re
gre
ssio
ns
du
e
tom
issi
ng
an
dn
egati
ve
dro
pou
tra
tes
incl
ud
e:N
J.
Contr
ol
state
sd
rop
ped
from
regre
ssio
nby
race
du
eto
mis
sin
gan
dn
egati
ve
dro
pou
tra
tes
incl
ud
e:A
R,
ID,
KY
,M
O,
ND
,
NJ,
NY
,S
D,
UT
,W
A,
WV
.N
otr
eatm
ent
state
sare
dro
pp
edfr
om
any
regre
ssio
ns.
Sin
ceth
ere
are
more
mis
sin
gs
inth
ed
rop
ou
tra
tes
by
race
,th
e’a
llra
ces’
cate
gory
isn
ot
dir
ectl
yco
mp
ara
ble
toth
eca
tegori
esby
race
.S
ou
rce:
Com
mon
Core
of
Data
(CC
D).
12
Fig
ure
C-2
:W
hit
eD
rop
out
Rat
esby
Yea
r,T
reat
men
tvs.
Con
trol
Sta
tes
Note
:G
ED
test
ing
rate
sare
calc
ula
ted
from
yea
rly
GE
DS
tati
stic
al
Rep
ort
sas
the
per
centa
ge
of
the
state
pop
ula
tion
inth
egiv
enage
ran
ge
wh
ota
ke
the
GE
Din
that
yea
r.
Dro
pou
tra
tes
are
calc
ula
ted
from
the
Com
mon
Core
of
Data
(CC
D)
as
the
exit
rate
for
those
inth
ein
dic
ate
dgra
des
inth
egiv
enyea
r.S
eeth
eap
pen
dix
for
furt
her
det
ails.
Sta
tes
requ
ired
tora
ise
GE
Dp
ass
requ
irem
ents
(ch
an
ger
state
s)are
:L
A,
MS
,N
E,
NM
,T
X.
Sta
tes
that
did
not
chan
ge
pass
requ
irem
ents
(non
-ch
an
ger
state
s)are
:A
R,
CA
,
CO
,D
E,
DC
,F
L,
ID,
KY
,M
D,
MO
,N
J,
NY
,N
D,
OK
,O
R,
SD
,U
T,
WA
,W
V,
WI.
NJ
isex
clu
ded
inall
dro
pou
tca
lcu
lati
on
sd
ue
tod
ata
erro
rs.
13
Fig
ure
C-3
:B
lack
Dro
pou
tR
ates
by
Yea
r,T
reat
men
tvs.
Con
trol
Sta
tes
Note
:G
ED
test
ing
rate
sare
calc
ula
ted
from
yea
rly
GE
DS
tati
stic
al
Rep
ort
sas
the
per
centa
ge
of
the
state
pop
ula
tion
inth
egiv
enage
ran
ge
wh
ota
ke
the
GE
Din
that
yea
r.
Dro
pou
tra
tes
are
calc
ula
ted
from
the
Com
mon
Core
of
Data
(CC
D)
as
the
exit
rate
for
those
inth
ein
dic
ate
dgra
des
inth
egiv
enyea
r.S
eeth
eap
pen
dix
for
furt
her
det
ails.
Sta
tes
requ
ired
tora
ise
GE
Dp
ass
requ
irem
ents
(ch
an
ger
state
s)are
:L
A,
MS
,N
E,
NM
,T
X.
Sta
tes
that
did
not
chan
ge
pass
requ
irem
ents
(non
-ch
an
ger
state
s)are
:A
R,
CA
,
CO
,D
E,
DC
,F
L,
ID,
KY
,M
D,
MO
,N
J,
NY
,N
D,
OK
,O
R,
SD
,U
T,
WA
,W
V,
WI.
NJ
isex
clu
ded
inall
dro
pou
tca
lcu
lati
on
sd
ue
tod
ata
erro
rs.
14
Fig
ure
C-4
:H
ispan
icD
rop
out
Rat
esby
Yea
r,T
reat
men
tvs.
Con
trol
Sta
tes
Note
:G
ED
test
ing
rate
sare
calc
ula
ted
from
yea
rly
GE
DS
tati
stic
al
Rep
ort
sas
the
per
centa
ge
of
the
state
pop
ula
tion
inth
egiv
enage
ran
ge
wh
ota
ke
the
GE
Din
that
yea
r.
Dro
pou
tra
tes
are
calc
ula
ted
from
the
Com
mon
Core
of
Data
(CC
D)
as
the
exit
rate
for
those
inth
ein
dic
ate
dgra
des
inth
egiv
enyea
r.S
eeth
eap
pen
dix
for
furt
her
det
ails.
Sta
tes
requ
ired
tora
ise
GE
Dp
ass
requ
irem
ents
(ch
an
ger
state
s)are
:L
A,
MS
,N
E,
NM
,T
X.
Sta
tes
that
did
not
chan
ge
pass
requ
irem
ents
(non
-ch
an
ger
state
s)are
:A
R,
CA
,
CO
,D
E,
DC
,F
L,
ID,
KY
,M
D,
MO
,N
J,
NY
,N
D,
OK
,O
R,
SD
,U
T,
WA
,W
V,
WI.
NJ
isex
clu
ded
inall
dro
pou
tca
lcu
lati
on
sd
ue
tod
ata
erro
rs.
15
D Robustness Checks for the Effect of the 1997 In-
crease in Passing Standards
This section reports alternative specifications of our model in the main text to test the
robustness of the results (Table D-1). As in the main text, we only report the γ estimates
for each check. For the full set of parameter estimates please refer to the Web Appendix.
D.1 Alternate Control Group
As one check of the exogeneity of the policy change assumption, we re-estimate the model
using states that were required to raise the GED minimum score requirement rather than
states that did not change. These are the lightly shaded states in Figure 4 in the text.
These states were also required to change GED policies but the increase in difficulty was
much smaller.
The first row of Table D-1 summarizes our overall results and results by race using this
alternate control group. The estimated effect on the upper level dropout rate is in general
larger than the effect obtained from our main control group. On the other hand, the effect
on the lower level dropout rate is in general smaller except for whites. However, these results
are generally consistent with the results reported in the text.
D.2 Southern States Only
With the exception of Nebraska, all treatment group states are located in the South. This
suggests that while the timing of the score requirement change was exogenous, the states
that were required to change were not a random sample of states. States likely set GED
standards endogenously to reflect conditions in the state, i.e. states with traditionally higher
dropout rates have lower GED testing standards. As a further robustness check of our main
results, we estimate the model using only treatment and control states located in the South.
The estimates, shown in the second row of Table D-1, are very similar to those reported
16
Tab
leD
-1:
Sum
mar
yof
Rob
ust
nes
sC
hec
ks
All
Rac
esW
hit
esB
lack
sH
isp
anic
sTr
eatm
ent E
ffect
-1.5
3%-1
.08%
-1.9
0%-2
.67%
95%
CI (
Hub
er-W
hite
)(-2
.37%
, -0.
68%
)(-1
.92%
, -0.
24%
)(-4
.00%
, 0.2
1%)
(-4.8
7%, -
0.47
%)
95%
CI (
Conl
ey-T
aber
)(-2
.19%
, -0.
49%
)(-3
.40%
, 0.1
5%)
(-4.3
9%, 2
.06%
)(-6
.17%
, -0.
98%
)90
% C
I (Co
nley
-Tab
er)
(-2.0
5%, -
0.64
%)
(-3.0
2%, -
0.02
%)
(-3.8
6%, 1
.40%
)(-5
.68%
, -1.
33%
)Tr
eatm
ent E
ffect
-1.4
5%-0
.42%
-2.1
6%-3
.08%
95%
CI (
Hub
er-W
hite
)(-1
.91%
, -1.
00%
)(-0
.75%
, -0.
10%
)(-3
.23%
, -1.
09%
)(-5
.51%
, -0.
65%
)95
% C
I (Co
nley
-Tab
er)
(-2.0
4%, 0
.06%
)(-0
.79%
, 2.8
2%)
(-3.3
9%, -
1.18
%)
(-7.5
3%, -
0.72
%)
90%
CI (
Conl
ey-T
aber
)(-1
.91%
, -0.
14%
)(-0
.65%
, 1.5
2%)
(-2.9
6%, -
1.29
%)
(-7.2
3%, -
0.99
%)
Trea
tmen
t Effe
ct-1
.30%
-0.4
2%-1
.25%
-2.5
8%95
% C
I (H
uber
-Whi
te)
(-2.0
6%, -
0.53
%)
(-0.7
7%, -
0.07
%)
(-3.4
2%, 0
.92%
)(-3
.47%
, -1.
70%
)95
% C
I (Co
nley
-Tab
er)
(-2.5
6%, -
0.37
%)
(-0.9
0%, 0
.15%
)(-3
.00%
, 3.4
7%)
(-3.7
2%, 0
.48%
)90
% C
I (Co
nley
-Tab
er)
(-2.3
0%, -
0.56
%)
(-0.8
0%, 0
.03%
)(-2
.69%
, 2.6
0%)
(-3.5
6%, -
0.06
%)
Not
e: Th
e fu
ll re
gres
sion
spec
ifica
tions
are
pre
sent
ed in
the
web
app
endi
x. U
nles
s oth
erw
ise st
ated
the
mod
el is
estim
ated
usin
g O
LS. S
tate
15-
17 y
ear o
ld p
opul
atio
ns
(by
race
for r
eleva
nt re
gres
sions
) are
use
d as
weig
hts.
The
estim
ate
repo
rted
abov
e is
the
inte
ract
ion
betw
een
the
treat
men
t sta
te d
umm
y an
d th
e po
st p
erio
d du
mm
y, w
here
the
treat
men
t sta
te d
umm
y is
equa
l to
1 fo
r tre
atm
ent s
tate
s and
the
post
per
iod
dum
my
is eq
ual t
o 1
for t
he y
ears
199
8-20
00, o
ther
wise
bot
h du
mm
ies a
re e
qual
to 0
. Sta
tes w
ith fe
wer
than
two
obse
rvat
ions
per
per
iod
are
drop
ped
for "
all ra
ces"
regr
essio
ns. S
tate
s with
few
er th
an tw
o ob
serv
atio
ns p
er p
erio
d fo
r any
of t
he
drop
out r
ate
mea
sure
s by
race
are
dro
pped
for b
y ra
ce re
gres
sions
. Tre
atm
ent s
tate
s are
thos
e st
ates
that
wer
e re
quire
d to
elim
inat
e th
e an
d/or
scor
e op
tion.
The
se
inclu
de: L
A, M
S, N
E, N
M, T
X. U
nles
s oth
erw
ise st
ated
con
trol s
tate
s are
thos
e th
at w
ere
not r
equi
red
to ra
ise th
eir G
ED
min
imum
scor
e re
quire
men
t. Th
ese
inclu
de:
AR,
CA
, CO
, DE
, DC,
FL,
ID, K
Y, M
D, M
O, N
J, N
Y, N
D, O
K, O
R, S
D, U
T, W
A, W
V, W
I. Fr
om th
ese
stat
es th
e fo
llow
ing
had
to b
e dr
oppe
d fr
om th
e "b
y ra
ce"
regr
essio
ns d
ue to
miss
ing
and
nega
tive
drop
out r
ates
: AR,
ID, K
Y, M
O, N
D, N
J, N
Y, S
D, U
T, W
A, W
V. T
he st
ate
of N
J is a
lso d
ropp
ed fr
om th
e "a
ll ra
ces"
re
gres
sions
. Sco
re c
hang
er st
ates
are
thos
e st
ates
that
wer
e re
quire
d to
raise
their
min
imum
scor
e re
quire
men
t fro
m 3
5 to
40
in 1
997.
The
se in
clude
: AK
, AL,
AZ
, CT,
G
A, H
I, IA
, IL,
IN, K
S, M
A, M
E, M
I, M
N, M
T, N
C, N
H, N
V, O
H, P
A, R
I, SC
, TN
, VA
, VT,
WY
. Fro
m th
ese
stat
es th
e fo
llow
ing
are
drop
ped
due
to m
issin
g an
d ne
gativ
e dr
opou
t rat
es: A
L, A
Z, I
A, M
E, M
N, M
T, N
H, S
C, T
N, V
T, W
Y. N
o tre
atm
ent s
tate
s are
dro
pped
from
any
of t
he re
gres
sions
. Sta
tes t
hat c
hang
ed th
e m
inim
um a
ge re
quire
d to
dro
p ou
t inc
lude
: DC
(from
orig
inal
cont
rol g
roup
), M
S an
d N
M (b
oth
from
trea
tmen
t gro
up).
Stat
es th
at c
hang
ed e
ither
scho
ol le
avin
g or
G
ED
age
requ
irem
ents
inclu
de:
AR,
DC,
KY
, MO
, OK
, OR,
SD
, UT,
WI (
from
orig
inal
cont
rol g
roup
) and
MS,
NE
and
NM
(fro
m tr
eatm
ent g
roup
).
Exc
ludi
ng st
ates
that
ch
ange
d m
inim
um a
ge
requ
ired
to d
rop
out
10th
-12t
h G
rad
e D
rop
out
Rat
e
Sout
hern
stat
es o
nly
Scor
e ch
ange
r sta
tes a
s co
ntro
l gro
up
Note
:T
he
full
regre
ssio
nsp
ecifi
cati
on
sare
pre
sente
din
the
Web
Ap
pen
dix
.U
nle
ssoth
erw
ise
state
dth
em
od
elis
esti
mate
du
sin
gO
LS
.S
tate
15-1
7yea
rold
pop
ula
tion
s(b
y
race
for
rele
vant
regre
ssio
ns)
are
use
das
wei
ghts
.T
he
esti
mate
rep
ort
edab
ove
isth
ein
tera
ctio
nb
etw
een
the
trea
tmen
tst
ate
du
mm
yan
dth
ep
ost
per
iod
du
mm
y,w
her
eth
e
trea
tmen
tst
ate
du
mm
yis
equ
al
to1
for
trea
tmen
tst
ate
san
dth
ep
ost
per
iod
du
mm
yis
equ
al
to1
for
the
yea
rs1998-2
000,
oth
erw
ise
both
du
mm
ies
are
equ
al
to0.
Sta
tes
wit
h
few
erth
an
two
ob
serv
ati
on
sp
erp
erio
dare
dro
pp
edfo
r“all
race
s”re
gre
ssio
ns.
Sta
tes
wit
hfe
wer
than
two
ob
serv
ati
on
sp
erp
erio
dfo
rany
of
the
dro
pou
tra
tem
easu
res
by
race
are
dro
pp
edfo
rby
race
regre
ssio
ns.
Tre
atm
ent
state
sare
those
state
sth
at
wer
ere
qu
ired
toel
imin
ate
the
an
d/or
score
op
tion
.T
hes
ein
clu
de:
LA
,M
S,
NE
,N
M,
TX
.U
nle
ss
oth
erw
ise
state
dco
ntr
ol
state
sare
those
that
wer
en
ot
requ
ired
tora
ise
thei
rG
ED
min
imu
msc
ore
requ
irem
ent.
Th
ese
incl
ud
e:A
R,
CA
,C
O,
DE
,D
C,
FL
,ID
,K
Y,
MD
,M
O,
NJ,
NY
,N
D,
OK
,O
R,
SD
,U
T,
WA
,W
V,
WI.
Fro
mth
ese
state
sth
efo
llow
ing
had
tob
ed
rop
ped
from
the
”by
race
”re
gre
ssio
ns
du
eto
mis
sin
gan
dn
egati
ve
dro
pou
tra
tes:
AR
,ID
,K
Y,
MO
,N
D,
NJ,
NY
,S
D,
UT
,W
A,
WV
.T
he
state
of
NJ
isals
od
rop
ped
from
the
”all
race
s”re
gre
ssio
ns.
Sco
rech
an
ger
state
sare
those
state
sth
at
wer
ere
qu
ired
to
rais
eth
eir
min
imu
msc
ore
requ
irem
ent
from
35
to40
in1997.
Thes
ein
clu
de:
AK
,A
L,
AZ
,C
T,
GA
,H
I,IA
,IL
,IN
,K
S,
MA
,M
E,
MI,
MN
,M
T,
NC
,N
H,
NV
,O
H,
PA
,R
I,S
C,
TN
,V
A,
VT
,W
Y.
Fro
mth
ese
state
sth
efo
llow
ing
are
dro
pp
edd
ue
tom
issi
ng
an
dn
egati
ve
dro
pou
tra
tes:
AL
,A
Z,
IA,
ME
,M
N,
MT
,N
H,
SC
,T
N,
VT
,W
Y.
No
trea
tmen
t
state
sare
dro
pp
edfr
om
any
of
the
regre
ssio
ns.
Sta
tes
that
chan
ged
the
min
imu
mage
requ
ired
tod
rop
ou
tin
clu
de:
DC
(fro
mori
gin
al
contr
ol
gro
up
),M
San
dN
M(b
oth
from
trea
tmen
tgro
up
).S
tate
sth
at
chan
ged
eith
ersc
hool
leavin
gor
GE
Dage
requ
irem
ents
incl
ud
e:A
R,
DC
,K
Y,
MO
,O
K,
OR
,S
D,
UT
,W
I(f
rom
ori
gin
al
contr
ol
gro
up
)an
dM
S,
NE
an
dN
M(f
rom
trea
tmen
tgro
up
).
17
Tab
leD
-1:
Sum
mar
yof
Rob
ust
nes
sC
hec
ks
(Con
tinued
)
All
Rac
esW
hit
esB
lack
sH
isp
anic
sTr
eatm
ent E
ffect
-1.5
3%-1
.08%
-1.9
0%-2
.67%
95%
CI (
Hub
er-W
hite
)(-2
.37%
, -0.
68%
)(-1
.92%
, -0.
24%
)(-4
.00%
, 0.2
1%)
(-4.8
7%, -
0.47
%)
95%
CI (
Conl
ey-T
aber
)(-2
.19%
, -0.
49%
)(-3
.40%
, 0.1
5%)
(-4.3
9%, 2
.06%
)(-6
.17%
, -0.
98%
)90
% C
I (Co
nley
-Tab
er)
(-2.0
5%, -
0.64
%)
(-3.0
2%, -
0.02
%)
(-3.8
6%, 1
.40%
)(-5
.68%
, -1.
33%
)Tr
eatm
ent E
ffect
-1.4
5%-0
.42%
-2.1
6%-3
.08%
95%
CI (
Hub
er-W
hite
)(-1
.91%
, -1.
00%
)(-0
.75%
, -0.
10%
)(-3
.23%
, -1.
09%
)(-5
.51%
, -0.
65%
)
10th
-12t
h G
rad
e D
rop
out
Rat
e
Sout
hern
stat
es o
nly
Scor
e ch
ange
r sta
tes a
s co
ntro
l gro
up
95%
C(H
beW
te)
(.9
%,
.00%
)(0
.75%
,0.
0%)
(3.
3%,
.09%
)(5
.5%
,0.
65%
)95
% C
I (Co
nley
-Tab
er)
(-2.0
4%, 0
.06%
)(-0
.79%
, 2.8
2%)
(-3.3
9%, -
1.18
%)
(-7.5
3%, -
0.72
%)
90%
CI (
Conl
ey-T
aber
)(-1
.91%
, -0.
14%
)(-0
.65%
, 1.5
2%)
(-2.9
6%, -
1.29
%)
(-7.2
3%, -
0.99
%)
Trea
tmen
t Effe
ct-1
.30%
-0.4
2%-1
.25%
-2.5
8%95
% C
I (H
uber
-Whi
te)
(-2.0
6%, -
0.53
%)
(-0.7
7%, -
0.07
%)
(-3.4
2%, 0
.92%
)(-3
.47%
, -1.
70%
)95
% C
I (Co
nley
-Tab
er)
(-2.5
6%, -
0.37
%)
(-0.9
0%, 0
.15%
)(-3
.00%
, 3.4
7%)
(-3.7
2%, 0
.48%
)90
% C
I (Co
nley
-Tab
er)
(-2.3
0%, -
0.56
%)
(-0.8
0%, 0
.03%
)(-2
.69%
, 2.6
0%)
(-3.5
6%, -
0.06
%)
Not
e: Th
e fu
ll re
gres
sion
spec
ifica
tions
are
pre
sent
ed in
the
web
app
endi
x. U
nles
s oth
erw
ise st
ated
the
mod
el is
estim
ated
usin
g O
LS. S
tate
15-
17 y
ear o
ld p
opul
atio
ns
(by
race
for r
eleva
nt re
gres
sions
) are
use
d as
weig
hts.
The
estim
ate
repo
rted
abov
e is
the
inte
ract
ion
betw
een
the
treat
men
t sta
te d
umm
y an
d th
e po
st p
erio
d du
mm
y, w
here
the
treat
men
t sta
te d
umm
y is
equa
l to
1 fo
r tre
atm
ent s
tate
s and
the
post
per
iod
dum
my
is eq
ual t
o 1
for t
he y
ears
199
8-20
00, o
ther
wise
bot
h du
mm
ies a
re e
qual
0S
ihf
hb
ii
dd
df
"ll
"i
Sih
fh
bi
id
ff
h
Exc
ludi
ng st
ates
that
ch
ange
d m
inim
um a
ge
requ
ired
to d
rop
out
to 0
. Sta
tes w
ith fe
wer
than
two
obse
rvat
ions
per
per
iod
are
drop
ped
for "
all ra
ces"
regr
essio
ns. S
tate
s with
few
er th
an tw
o ob
serv
atio
ns p
er p
erio
d fo
r any
of t
he
drop
out r
ate
mea
sure
s by
race
are
dro
pped
for b
y ra
ce re
gres
sions
. Tre
atm
ent s
tate
s are
thos
e st
ates
that
wer
e re
quire
d to
elim
inat
e th
e an
d/or
scor
e op
tion.
The
se
inclu
de: L
A, M
S, N
E, N
M, T
X. U
nles
s oth
erw
ise st
ated
con
trol s
tate
s are
thos
e th
at w
ere
not r
equi
red
to ra
ise th
eir G
ED
min
imum
scor
e re
quire
men
t. Th
ese
inclu
de:
AR,
CA
, CO
, DE
, DC,
FL,
ID, K
Y, M
D, M
O, N
J, N
Y, N
D, O
K, O
R, S
D, U
T, W
A, W
V, W
I. Fr
om th
ese
stat
es th
e fo
llow
ing
had
to b
e dr
oppe
d fr
om th
e "b
y ra
ce"
regr
essio
ns d
ue to
miss
ing
and
nega
tive
drop
out r
ates
: AR,
ID, K
Y, M
O, N
D, N
J, N
Y, S
D, U
T, W
A, W
V. T
he st
ate
of N
J is a
lso d
ropp
ed fr
om th
e "a
ll ra
ces"
re
gres
sions
. Sco
re c
hang
er st
ates
are
thos
e st
ates
that
wer
e re
quire
d to
raise
their
min
imum
scor
e re
quire
men
t fro
m 3
5 to
40
in 1
997.
The
se in
clude
: AK
, AL,
AZ
, CT,
G
A, H
I, IA
, IL,
IN, K
S, M
A, M
E, M
I, M
N, M
T, N
C, N
H, N
V, O
H, P
A, R
I, SC
, TN
, VA
, VT,
WY
. Fro
m th
ese
stat
es th
e fo
llow
ing
are
drop
ped
due
to m
issin
g an
d ne
gativ
e dr
opou
t rat
es: A
L, A
Z, I
A, M
E, M
N, M
T, N
H, S
C, T
N, V
T, W
Y. N
o tre
atm
ent s
tate
s are
dro
pped
from
any
of t
he re
gres
sions
. Sta
tes t
hat c
hang
ed th
e m
inim
um a
ge re
quire
d to
dro
p ou
t inc
lude
: DC
(from
orig
inal
cont
rol g
roup
), M
S an
d N
M (b
oth
from
trea
tmen
t gro
up).
Stat
es th
at c
hang
ed e
ither
scho
ol le
avin
g or
G
ED
age
requ
irem
ents
inclu
de:
AR,
DC,
KY
, MO
, OK
, OR,
SD
, UT,
WI (
from
orig
inal
cont
rol g
roup
) and
MS,
NE
and
NM
(fro
m tr
eatm
ent g
roup
).
10th
-11t
hG
rad
eD
rop
out
Rat
e
All
Rac
esW
hit
esB
lack
sH
isp
anic
s
Trea
tmen
t Effe
ct-0
.23%
-0.3
9%0.
25%
-1.0
9%95
% C
I (H
uber
-Whi
te)
(-0.9
1%, 0
.47%
)(-1
.10%
, 0.3
2%)
(-2.7
4%, 3
.25%
)(-4
.33%
, 2.1
5%)
95%
CI (
Conl
ey-T
aber
)(-1
.47%
, 0.6
6%)
(-3.2
2%, 0
.52%
)(-2
.43%
, 6.1
2%)
(-4.8
2%, 0
.92%
)90
% C
I (Co
nley
-Tab
er)
(-1.3
1%, 0
.47%
)(-2
.75%
, 0.3
9%)
(-2.0
1%, 4
.83%
)(-4
.34%
, 0.4
8%)
Trea
tmen
t Effe
ct-0
.95%
-0.5
3%-1
.59%
-1.8
9%95
% C
I (H
uber
-Whi
te)
(-1.5
2%, -
0.38
%)
(-1.5
6%, 0
.50%
)(-3
.67%
, 0.4
8%)
(-5.1
6%, 1
.39%
)95
%CI
(Cl
Tb
)(1
83%
086
%)
(126
%1
77%
)(3
59%
015
%)
(906
%0
14%
)
Scor
e ch
ange
r sta
tes a
s co
ntro
l gro
up
Sout
hern
stat
es o
nly
10th
-11t
h G
rad
e D
rop
out
Rat
e
95%
CI (
Conl
ey-T
aber
)(-1
.83%
, 0.8
6%)
(-1.2
6%, 1
.77%
)(-3
.59%
, -0.
15%
)(-9
.06%
, 0.1
4%)
90%
CI (
Conl
ey-T
aber
)(-1
.71%
, 0.5
6%)
(-1.1
1%, 1
.11%
)(-3
.09%
, -0.
52%
)(-8
.18%
, -0.
34%
)Tr
eatm
ent E
ffect
-0.5
6%0.
01%
0.13
%-1
.25%
95%
CI (
Hub
er-W
hite
)(-1
.68%
, 0.5
7%)
(-1.0
3%, 1
.05%
)(-3
.49%
, 3.7
4%)
(-2.4
0%, -
0.09
%)
95%
CI (
Conl
ey-T
aber
)(-1
.91%
, 0.6
11%
)(-0
.95%
, 1.3
9%)
(-2.7
6%, 7
.41%
)-3
.73%
, 2.6
6%)
90%
CI (
Conl
ey-T
aber
)(-1
.73%
, 0.3
9%)
(-0.8
8%, 0
.99%
)(-2
.50%
, 5.0
0%)
(-3.3
1%, 1
.63%
)N
ote:
The
full
regr
essio
n sp
ecifi
catio
ns a
re p
rese
nted
in th
e w
eb a
ppen
dix.
Unl
ess o
ther
wise
stat
ed th
e m
odel
is es
timat
ed u
sing
OLS
. Sta
te 1
5-17
yea
r old
pop
ulat
ions
(b
y ra
ce fo
r rele
vant
regr
essio
ns) a
re u
sed
as w
eight
s. Th
e es
timat
e re
porte
d ab
ove
is th
e in
tera
ctio
n be
twee
n th
e tre
atm
ent s
tate
dum
my
and
the
post
per
iod
dum
my,
whe
re th
e tre
atm
ent s
tate
dum
my
is eq
ual t
o 1
for t
reat
men
t sta
tes a
nd th
e po
st p
erio
d du
mm
y is
equa
l to
1 fo
r the
yea
rs 1
998-
2000
, oth
erw
ise b
oth
dum
mies
are
equ
al
Exc
ludi
ng st
ates
that
ch
ange
d m
inim
um a
ge
requ
ired
to d
rop
out
to 0
. Sta
tes w
ith fe
wer
than
two
obse
rvat
ions
per
per
iod
are
drop
ped
for "
all ra
ces"
regr
essio
ns. S
tate
s with
few
er th
an tw
o ob
serv
atio
ns p
er p
erio
d fo
r any
of t
he
drop
out r
ate
mea
sure
s by
race
are
dro
pped
for b
y ra
ce re
gres
sions
. Tre
atm
ent s
tate
s are
thos
e st
ates
that
wer
e re
quire
d to
elim
inat
e th
e an
d/or
scor
e op
tion.
The
se
inclu
de: L
A, M
S, N
E, N
M, T
X. U
nles
s oth
erw
ise st
ated
con
trol s
tate
s are
thos
e th
at w
ere
not r
equi
red
to ra
ise th
eir G
ED
min
imum
scor
e re
quire
men
t. Th
ese
inclu
de:
AR,
CA
, CO
, DE
, DC,
FL,
ID, K
Y, M
D, M
O, N
J, N
Y, N
D, O
K, O
R, S
D, U
T, W
A, W
V, W
I. Fr
om th
ese
stat
es th
e fo
llow
ing
had
to b
e dr
oppe
d fr
om th
e "b
y ra
ce"
regr
essio
ns d
ue to
miss
ing
and
nega
tive
drop
out r
ates
: AR,
ID, K
Y, M
O, N
D, N
J, N
Y, S
D, U
T, W
A, W
V. T
he st
ate
of N
J is a
lso d
ropp
ed fr
om th
e "a
ll ra
ces"
re
gres
sions
. Sco
re c
hang
er st
ates
are
thos
e st
ates
that
wer
e re
quire
d to
raise
their
min
imum
scor
e re
quire
men
t fro
m 3
5 to
40
in 1
997.
The
se in
clude
: AK
, AL,
AZ
, CT,
G
A, H
I, IA
, IL,
IN, K
S, M
A, M
E, M
I, M
N, M
T, N
C, N
H, N
V, O
H, P
A, R
I, SC
, TN
, VA
, VT,
WY
. Fro
m th
ese
stat
es th
e fo
llow
ing
are
drop
ped
due
to m
issin
g an
d ne
gativ
e dr
opou
t rat
es: A
L, A
Z, I
A, M
E, M
N, M
T, N
H, S
C, T
N, V
T, W
Y. N
o tre
atm
ent s
tate
s are
dro
pped
from
any
of t
he re
gres
sions
. Sta
tes t
hat c
hang
ed th
e m
inim
um a
ge re
quire
d to
dro
p ou
t inc
lude
: DC
(from
orig
inal
cont
rol g
roup
), M
S an
d N
M (b
oth
from
trea
tmen
t gro
up).
Stat
es th
at c
hang
ed e
ither
scho
ol le
avin
g or
G
ED
age
requ
irem
ents
inclu
de:
AR,
DC,
KY
, MO
, OK
, OR,
SD
, UT,
WI (
from
orig
inal
cont
rol g
roup
) and
MS,
NE
and
NM
(fro
m tr
eatm
ent g
roup
).
Note
:T
he
full
regre
ssio
nsp
ecifi
cati
on
sare
pre
sente
din
the
Web
Ap
pen
dix
.U
nle
ssoth
erw
ise
state
dth
em
od
elis
esti
mate
du
sin
gO
LS
.S
tate
15-1
7yea
rold
pop
ula
tion
s(b
y
race
for
rele
vant
regre
ssio
ns)
are
use
das
wei
ghts
.T
he
esti
mate
rep
ort
edab
ove
isth
ein
tera
ctio
nb
etw
een
the
trea
tmen
tst
ate
du
mm
yan
dth
ep
ost
per
iod
du
mm
y,w
her
eth
e
trea
tmen
tst
ate
du
mm
yis
equ
al
to1
for
trea
tmen
tst
ate
san
dth
ep
ost
per
iod
du
mm
yis
equ
al
to1
for
the
yea
rs1998-2
000,
oth
erw
ise
both
du
mm
ies
are
equ
al
to0.
Sta
tes
wit
h
few
erth
an
two
ob
serv
ati
on
sp
erp
erio
dare
dro
pp
edfo
r“all
race
s”re
gre
ssio
ns.
Sta
tes
wit
hfe
wer
than
two
ob
serv
ati
on
sp
erp
erio
dfo
rany
of
the
dro
pou
tra
tem
easu
res
by
race
are
dro
pp
edfo
rby
race
regre
ssio
ns.
Tre
atm
ent
state
sare
those
state
sth
at
wer
ere
qu
ired
toel
imin
ate
the
an
d/or
score
op
tion
.T
hes
ein
clu
de:
LA
,M
S,
NE
,N
M,
TX
.U
nle
ss
oth
erw
ise
state
dco
ntr
ol
state
sare
those
that
wer
en
ot
requ
ired
tora
ise
thei
rG
ED
min
imu
msc
ore
requ
irem
ent.
Th
ese
incl
ud
e:A
R,
CA
,C
O,
DE
,D
C,
FL
,ID
,K
Y,
MD
,M
O,
NJ,
NY
,N
D,
OK
,O
R,
SD
,U
T,
WA
,W
V,
WI.
Fro
mth
ese
state
sth
efo
llow
ing
had
tob
ed
rop
ped
from
the
”by
race
”re
gre
ssio
ns
du
eto
mis
sin
gan
dn
egati
ve
dro
pou
tra
tes:
AR
,ID
,K
Y,
MO
,N
D,
NJ,
NY
,S
D,
UT
,W
A,
WV
.T
he
state
of
NJ
isals
od
rop
ped
from
the
”all
race
s”re
gre
ssio
ns.
Sco
rech
an
ger
state
sare
those
state
sth
at
wer
ere
qu
ired
to
rais
eth
eir
min
imu
msc
ore
requ
irem
ent
from
35
to40
in1997.
Thes
ein
clu
de:
AK
,A
L,
AZ
,C
T,
GA
,H
I,IA
,IL
,IN
,K
S,
MA
,M
E,
MI,
MN
,M
T,
NC
,N
H,
NV
,O
H,
PA
,R
I,S
C,
TN
,V
A,
VT
,W
Y.
Fro
mth
ese
state
sth
efo
llow
ing
are
dro
pp
edd
ue
tom
issi
ng
an
dn
egati
ve
dro
pou
tra
tes:
AL
,A
Z,
IA,
ME
,M
N,
MT
,N
H,
SC
,T
N,
VT
,W
Y.
No
trea
tmen
t
state
sare
dro
pp
edfr
om
any
of
the
regre
ssio
ns.
Sta
tes
that
chan
ged
the
min
imu
mage
requ
ired
tod
rop
ou
tin
clu
de:
DC
(fro
mori
gin
al
contr
ol
gro
up
),M
San
dN
M(b
oth
from
trea
tmen
tgro
up
).S
tate
sth
at
chan
ged
eith
ersc
hool
leavin
gor
GE
Dage
requ
irem
ents
incl
ud
e:A
R,
DC
,K
Y,
MO
,O
K,
OR
,S
D,
UT
,W
I(f
rom
ori
gin
al
contr
ol
gro
up
)an
dM
S,
NE
an
dN
M(f
rom
trea
tmen
tgro
up
).
18
Tab
leD
-1:
Sum
mar
yof
Rob
ust
nes
sC
hec
ks
(Con
tinued
)
All
Rac
esW
hit
esB
lack
sH
isp
anic
s
Trea
tmen
t Effe
ct-4
.83%
-2.1
1%-6
.10%
-6.6
6%95
% C
I (H
uber
-Whi
te)
(-7.0
5%, -
2.59
%)
(-4.5
2%, 0
.29%
)(-1
5.98
%, 3
.78%
)(-9
.55%
, -3.
78%
)
12th
Gra
de
Dro
pou
t R
ate
Scor
e ch
ange
r sta
tes a
s co
ntro
l gro
up
95%
CI (
Conl
ey-T
aber
)(-6
.62%
, -0.
79%
)(-4
.72%
, 1.5
4%)
(-1.2
3%, 3
.87%
)(-1
1.18
%, -
1.62
%)
90%
CI (
Conl
ey-T
aber
)(-6
.12%
, -1.
28%
)(-4
.33%
, 1.0
8%)
(-1.0
6%, 2
.49%
)(-1
0.15
%, -
2.22
%)
Trea
tmen
t Effe
ct-2
.17%
0.07
%-3
.30%
-5.8
2%95
% C
I (H
uber
-Whi
te)
(-4.2
9%, 0
.05%
)(-2
.76%
, 2.9
0%)
(-8.4
8%, 1
.87%
)(-8
.04%
, -3.
61%
)95
% C
I (Co
nley
-Tab
er)
(-4.3
7%, 0
.13%
)(-3
.65%
, 1.9
5%)
(-7.5
6%, 4
.04%
)(-7
.69%
, 6.7
0%)
90%
CI (
Conl
ey-T
aber
)(-3
.94%
, -0.
13%
)(-2
.06%
, 1.7
7%)
(-5.9
7%, 2
.53%
)(-7
.47%
, 1.2
7%)
Trea
tmen
t Effe
ct-2
.93%
-1.2
8%-4
.76%
-5.9
8%95
% C
I (H
uber
-Whi
te)
(-4.2
9%, -
1.57
%)
(-3.3
0%, 0
.74%
)(-8
.63%
, -0.
90%
)(-7
.05%
, -4.
92%
)
Sout
hern
stat
es o
nly
Exc
ludi
ng st
ates
that
ch
ange
d m
inim
um a
ge
id
d95
% C
I (H
uber
Whi
te)
(4.2
9%,
1.57
%)
(3.3
0%, 0
.74%
)(8
.63%
, 0.
90%
)(7
.05%
, 4.
92%
)95
% C
I (Co
nley
-Tab
er)
(-6.4
1%, -
0.46
%)
(-3.8
5%, 1
.67%
)(-9
.84%
, 1.5
2%)
(-9.9
7%, 1
.32%
)90
% C
I (Co
nley
-Tab
er)
(-5.5
7%, -
0.91
%)
(-3.2
1%, 1
.07%
)(-8
.86%
, 1.1
5%)
(-8.4
5%, 0
.29%
)
requ
ired
to d
rop
out
Not
e: Th
e fu
ll re
gres
sion
spec
ifica
tions
are
pre
sent
ed in
the
web
app
endi
x. U
nles
s oth
erw
ise st
ated
the
mod
el is
estim
ated
usin
g O
LS. S
tate
15-
17 y
ear o
ld p
opul
atio
ns
(by
race
for r
eleva
nt re
gres
sions
) are
use
d as
weig
hts.
The
estim
ate
repo
rted
abov
e is
the
inte
ract
ion
betw
een
the
treat
men
t sta
te d
umm
y an
d th
e po
st p
erio
d du
mm
y, w
here
the
treat
men
t sta
te d
umm
y is
equa
l to
1 fo
r tre
atm
ent s
tate
s and
the
post
per
iod
dum
my
is eq
ual t
o 1
for t
he y
ears
199
8-20
00, o
ther
wise
bot
h du
mm
ies a
re e
qual
to 0
. Sta
tes w
ith fe
wer
than
two
obse
rvat
ions
per
per
iod
are
drop
ped
for "
all ra
ces"
regr
essio
ns. S
tate
s with
few
er th
an tw
o ob
serv
atio
ns p
er p
erio
d fo
r any
of t
he
drop
out r
ate
mea
sure
s by
race
are
dro
pped
for b
y ra
ce re
gres
sions
. Tre
atm
ent s
tate
s are
thos
e st
ates
that
wer
e re
quire
d to
elim
inat
e th
e an
d/or
scor
e op
tion.
The
se
inclu
de: L
A, M
S, N
E, N
M, T
X. U
nles
s oth
erw
ise st
ated
con
trol s
tate
s are
thos
e th
at w
ere
not r
equi
red
to ra
ise th
eir G
ED
min
imum
scor
e re
quire
men
t. Th
ese
inclu
de:
AR,
CA
, CO
, DE
, DC,
FL,
ID, K
Y, M
D, M
O, N
J, N
Y, N
D, O
K, O
R, S
D, U
T, W
A, W
V, W
I. Fr
om th
ese
stat
es th
e fo
llow
ing
had
to b
e dr
oppe
d fr
om th
e "b
y ra
ce"
regr
essio
ns d
ue to
miss
ing
and
nega
tive
drop
out r
ates
: AR,
ID, K
Y, M
O, N
D, N
J, N
Y, S
D, U
T, W
A, W
V. T
he st
ate
of N
J is a
lso d
ropp
ed fr
om th
e "a
ll ra
ces"
g
gg
p,
,,
,,
J,,
,,
,J
ppre
gres
sions
. Sco
re c
hang
er st
ates
are
thos
e st
ates
that
wer
e re
quire
d to
raise
their
min
imum
scor
e re
quire
men
t fro
m 3
5 to
40
in 1
997.
The
se in
clude
: AK
, AL,
AZ
, CT,
G
A, H
I, IA
, IL,
IN, K
S, M
A, M
E, M
I, M
N, M
T, N
C, N
H, N
V, O
H, P
A, R
I, SC
, TN
, VA
, VT,
WY
. Fro
m th
ese
stat
es th
e fo
llow
ing
are
drop
ped
due
to m
issin
g an
d ne
gativ
e dr
opou
t rat
es: A
L, A
Z, I
A, M
E, M
N, M
T, N
H, S
C, T
N, V
T, W
Y. N
o tre
atm
ent s
tate
s are
dro
pped
from
any
of t
he re
gres
sions
. Sta
tes t
hat c
hang
ed th
e m
inim
um a
ge re
quire
d to
dro
p ou
t inc
lude
: DC
(from
orig
inal
cont
rol g
roup
), M
S an
d N
M (b
oth
from
trea
tmen
t gro
up).
Stat
es th
at c
hang
ed e
ither
scho
ol le
avin
g or
G
ED
age
requ
irem
ents
inclu
de:
AR,
DC,
KY
, MO
, OK
, OR,
SD
, UT,
WI (
from
orig
inal
cont
rol g
roup
) and
MS,
NE
and
NM
(fro
m tr
eatm
ent g
roup
).
Note
:T
he
full
regre
ssio
nsp
ecifi
cati
on
sare
pre
sente
din
the
Web
Ap
pen
dix
.U
nle
ssoth
erw
ise
state
dth
em
od
elis
esti
mate
du
sin
gO
LS
.S
tate
15-1
7yea
rold
pop
ula
tion
s(b
y
race
for
rele
vant
regre
ssio
ns)
are
use
das
wei
ghts
.T
he
esti
mate
rep
ort
edab
ove
isth
ein
tera
ctio
nb
etw
een
the
trea
tmen
tst
ate
du
mm
yan
dth
ep
ost
per
iod
du
mm
y,w
her
eth
e
trea
tmen
tst
ate
du
mm
yis
equ
al
to1
for
trea
tmen
tst
ate
san
dth
ep
ost
per
iod
du
mm
yis
equ
al
to1
for
the
yea
rs1998-2
000,
oth
erw
ise
both
du
mm
ies
are
equ
al
to0.
Sta
tes
wit
h
few
erth
an
two
ob
serv
ati
on
sp
erp
erio
dare
dro
pp
edfo
r“all
race
s”re
gre
ssio
ns.
Sta
tes
wit
hfe
wer
than
two
ob
serv
ati
on
sp
erp
erio
dfo
rany
of
the
dro
pou
tra
tem
easu
res
by
race
are
dro
pp
edfo
rby
race
regre
ssio
ns.
Tre
atm
ent
state
sare
those
state
sth
at
wer
ere
qu
ired
toel
imin
ate
the
an
d/or
score
op
tion
.T
hes
ein
clu
de:
LA
,M
S,
NE
,N
M,
TX
.U
nle
ss
oth
erw
ise
state
dco
ntr
ol
state
sare
those
that
wer
en
ot
requ
ired
tora
ise
thei
rG
ED
min
imu
msc
ore
requ
irem
ent.
Th
ese
incl
ud
e:A
R,
CA
,C
O,
DE
,D
C,
FL
,ID
,K
Y,
MD
,M
O,
NJ,
NY
,N
D,
OK
,O
R,
SD
,U
T,
WA
,W
V,
WI.
Fro
mth
ese
state
sth
efo
llow
ing
had
tob
ed
rop
ped
from
the
”by
race
”re
gre
ssio
ns
du
eto
mis
sin
gan
dn
egati
ve
dro
pou
tra
tes:
AR
,ID
,K
Y,
MO
,N
D,
NJ,
NY
,S
D,
UT
,W
A,
WV
.T
he
state
of
NJ
isals
od
rop
ped
from
the
”all
race
s”re
gre
ssio
ns.
Sco
rech
an
ger
state
sare
those
state
sth
at
wer
ere
qu
ired
to
rais
eth
eir
min
imu
msc
ore
requ
irem
ent
from
35
to40
in1997.
Thes
ein
clu
de:
AK
,A
L,
AZ
,C
T,
GA
,H
I,IA
,IL
,IN
,K
S,
MA
,M
E,
MI,
MN
,M
T,
NC
,N
H,
NV
,O
H,
PA
,R
I,S
C,
TN
,V
A,
VT
,W
Y.
Fro
mth
ese
state
sth
efo
llow
ing
are
dro
pp
edd
ue
tom
issi
ng
an
dn
egati
ve
dro
pou
tra
tes:
AL
,A
Z,
IA,
ME
,M
N,
MT
,N
H,
SC
,T
N,
VT
,W
Y.
No
trea
tmen
t
state
sare
dro
pp
edfr
om
any
of
the
regre
ssio
ns.
Sta
tes
that
chan
ged
the
min
imu
mage
requ
ired
tod
rop
ou
tin
clu
de:
DC
(fro
mori
gin
al
contr
ol
gro
up
),M
San
dN
M(b
oth
from
trea
tmen
tgro
up
).S
tate
sth
at
chan
ged
eith
ersc
hool
leavin
gor
GE
Dage
requ
irem
ents
incl
ud
e:A
R,
DC
,K
Y,
MO
,O
K,
OR
,S
D,
UT
,W
I(f
rom
ori
gin
al
contr
ol
gro
up
)an
dM
S,
NE
an
dN
M(f
rom
trea
tmen
tgro
up
).
19
in the text for nearly all groups. The one exception is that the white upper level dropout
estimate is now very small and statistically insignificant.
D.3 Excluding States that Changed Minimum Age Requirements
A number of states in both our treatment and control groups either raised or lowered the
minimum age for GED testing or the minimum age for school leaving during the period
under study. Our fixed effect model controls for these changes. Alternatively, we estimate
the model excluding these states to be sure that these changes are not driving our results.
In row 3 of Table D-1, we drop all states that changed the minimum school leaving age and
find that our estimates are robust to this alternate specification.
D.4 Excluding Additional Years from the Analysis
The change in test difficulty was implemented at the beginning of 1997, in the middle of the
1996-1997 school year. All regressions exclude 1996-1997 dropout rates as these would be the
number enrolled in 1996 who were not still enrolled or graduated in 1997. If the change was
well publicized, it may have lead to a rush of test takers trying to pass before the increase
in test difficulty. As a robustness check we exclude 1996 through 1998 from our regressions.
As shown in Figure D-2, excluding these years has little effect on the estimates. Similarly,
the 12th grade dropout rate is notably higher in 1994 than the other years. As shown in
Figure D-2, excluding 1994 has little effect on the estimates.
20
Tab
leD
-2:
Alt
ernat
ive
Yea
rSp
ecifi
cati
onfo
rC
han
gein
Tes
tD
ifficu
lty
Dep
end
ent
Var
iab
leA
ll R
aces
Wh
ites
Bla
cks
His
pan
ics
All
Rac
esW
hit
esB
lack
sH
isp
anic
sA
ll R
aces
Wh
ites
Bla
cks
His
pan
ics
-1.2
9%-0
.43%
-1.2
9%-2
.74%
-1.4
2%-0
.43%
-1.6
0%-3
.20%
-1.1
7%-0
.33%
-1.4
9%-2
.39%
(.37)
(.15)
(.98)
(.40)
(.50)
(.30)
(1.0
6)(.6
7)(.2
6)(.1
2)(.8
4)(.4
2)-0
.55%
0.00
%0.
09%
-1.3
8%-0
.57%
0.12
%-0
.02%
-1.8
1%-0
.64%
-0.1
1%-0
.62%
-0.9
9%(.5
4)(.4
5)(1
.61)
(.50)
(.65)
(.54)
(1.8
6)(.8
2)(.4
3)(.4
1)(1
.23)
(.58)
-2.9
5%-1
.32%
-4.8
4%-6
.16%
-3.3
0%-1
.58%
-5.7
0%-6
.67%
-2.3
9%-0
.72%
-3.6
3%-5
.95%
(.65)
(.88)
(1.8
2)(.4
6)(.8
3)(1
.14)
(2.3
5)(.8
3)(.6
5)(.9
4)(1
.63)
(.91)
-0.5
7%…
……
-0.5
5%-0
.53%
(.18)
……
…(.1
9)(.1
7)-0
.36%
……
…-0
.32%
-0.3
7%(.1
7)…
……
(.21)
(.18)
-0.7
7%…
……
-0.7
6%-0
.68%
(.25)
……
…(.2
7)(.2
2)
10th
-12t
h G
rade
D
ropo
ut R
ate
GE
D T
estin
g Ra
te
Age
s 18-
19
The
year
199
7 is
exclu
ded
from
all
regr
essio
ns a
s was
don
e in
the
orig
inal
pape
r.
Exc
lud
ing
1994
Not
e: H
uber
-Whi
te ro
bust
stan
dard
err
ors a
re in
par
enth
eses
(clu
ster
ed b
y st
ate)
. Mod
el is
estim
ated
usin
g O
LS. S
tate
15-
17 y
ear o
ld p
opul
atio
ns b
y ra
ce a
re u
sed
as w
eight
s. Th
e es
timat
e re
porte
d ab
ove
is th
e in
tera
ctio
n be
twee
n th
e tre
atm
ent s
tate
dum
my
and
the
post
199
7 du
mm
y, w
here
the
treat
men
t sta
te d
umm
y is
equa
l to
1 fo
r tre
atm
ent s
tate
s and
th
e po
st 1
997
dum
my
is eq
ual t
o 1
for t
he y
ears
199
8-20
00, o
ther
wise
bot
h du
mm
ies a
re e
qual
to 0
. Sta
tes w
ith fe
wer
than
two
obse
rvat
ions
per
per
iod
are
drop
ped
for '
all ra
ces'
regr
essio
ns. S
tate
s with
few
er th
an tw
o ob
serv
atio
ns p
er p
erio
d fo
r any
of t
he d
ropo
ut ra
te m
easu
res b
y ra
ce a
re d
ropp
ed fo
r by
race
regr
essio
ns. T
reat
men
t sta
tes a
re th
ose
stat
es
that
wer
e re
quire
d to
elim
inat
e th
e an
d/or
scor
e op
tion.
The
se in
clude
: LA
, MS,
NE
, NM
, TX
. Con
trol s
tate
s are
thos
e th
at a
lread
y ha
d hi
gh e
noug
h st
anda
rds b
y 19
97. T
hese
in
clude
: AR,
CA
, CO
, DE
, DC,
FL,
ID, K
Y, M
D, M
O, N
J, N
Y, N
D, O
K, O
R, S
D, U
T, W
A, W
V, W
I. Co
ntro
l sta
tes d
ropp
ed fr
om 'a
ll ra
ces'
regr
essio
ns d
ue to
miss
ing
and
nega
tive
drop
out r
ates
inclu
de: N
J. Co
ntro
l sta
tes d
ropp
ed fr
om re
gres
sion
by ra
ce d
ue to
miss
ing
and
nega
tive
drop
out r
ates
inclu
de: A
R, ID
, KY
, MO
, ND
, NJ,
NY
, SD
, UT,
W
A, W
V. N
o tre
atm
ent s
tate
s are
dro
pped
.
10th
-11t
h G
rade
D
ropo
ut R
ate
12th
Gra
de
Dro
pout
Rat
eG
ED
Tes
ting
Rate
A
ges 1
6-19
GE
D T
estin
g Ra
te
Age
s 16-
17
Incl
ud
ing
all Y
ears
Exc
lud
ing
1996
an
d 1
998
21
D.5 Extending the GED Testing and Dropout Rate Trends
When we extend the times series of GED testing and dropout rates on both sides of 1997, we
obtain results that support the analysis in the main text. Prior to the increase in standards,
the GED test-taking rate is higher in treatment states compared to control states. For
the higher grade levels, dropout rates are higher in control states compared to treatment
states prior to the introduction of the new standards but are lower afterwards. The effect is
particularly strong for the 12th grade dropout rate. The breaks in the trends around 1997
are evident for the student pools more eligible to take the GED.
22
Fig
ure
D-1
:G
ED
Tes
ting
and
Dro
pou
tR
ates
By
Yea
r,T
reat
men
tvs.
Con
trol
Sta
tes
(exte
nded
year
s)
23
E Fixed Effect Estimates of the Effect of Increasing
Passing Standards
One difficulty in isolating the effect of changes in GED passing standards on dropout rates
is that both minimum school leaving age requirements and GED testing age requirements
changed in the sample period under study (See Table E-1). During our sample period, three
of the five states in our treatment group both raised and lowered their GED minimum age
requirement. Two of these three states also raised the minimum age at which students can
drop out of school. States included in our control group also made changes in their age
requirements.
To control for these potentially confounding changes in age requirements and other
sources of variation across states, we estimate a state fixed-effect regression. The model
is
Yi,t = γ(Dtreat ·Dpost 97) + πDpost 97 + θi + ψXi,t + εi,t
where Yi,t is the dropout rate for state i in year t and Dtreat and Dpost 97 are defined as
Dtreat = {1 if the state eliminated the and/or GED score option in 19970 if the state was not required to raise GED standards in 1997
Dpost 97 = {1 if 1998 ≤ year ≤ 20000 otherwise .
The θi are time-invariant state level fixed effects and the Xi,t are control variables that
vary by states over time. These include dummy indicators for both the minimum age required
to take the GED and the minimum age required to drop out of school, as well as measures
of state level unemployment rates and per capita income to control for changes in labor
market conditions during the sample period.1 The parameter of interest is γ, which is the
conditional difference-in-difference estimate of the treatment effect of the reform in GED
1See Table E-3 for the summary statistics of all variables used in these models. We do not control for highstakes testing because no treatment or control states implemented or changed testing requirements duringthe sample period.
24
Tab
leE
-1:
Chan
ges
inG
ED
Tes
ting
and
Man
dat
ory
Sch
ool
ing
Age
Req
uir
emen
tsby
Tre
atm
ent
Sta
tus,
1994
-200
0
Pol
icy
Ch
ange
Tre
atm
ent
Gro
up
Con
trol
Gro
up
Raise
d M
inim
um G
ED
Age
Re
quire
men
tM
S (1
7 to
18,
199
7), N
E (1
6 to
18,
199
8),
NM
(16
to 1
7, 2
000)
.
AR
(16
to 1
8, 2
000)
, KY
(16
to 1
9 ,1
997
and
200
0),
MO
(16
to 1
8, 1
997)
, OK
(16
to 1
8, 1
997
and
2000
), O
R (1
6 to
18,
200
0), S
D (1
7 to
19,
199
7 an
d 16
to 1
8,
1999
), U
T (1
7 to
18,
199
7 an
d 20
00),
WI (
18 to
18.
5,
1999
).
Low
ered
Min
imum
GE
D A
ge
Requ
irem
ent
MS
(18
to 1
6, 2
000)
, NE
(17
to 1
6, 1
995)
, N
M (1
8 to
16,
199
9).
KY
(19
to 1
6, 1
999)
, MO
(18
to 1
6, 1
995)
, OK
(18
to
16, 1
995
and
1999
), O
R (1
8 to
16,
199
9), S
D (1
8 to
17
, 199
5 an
d 19
to 1
6, 1
998)
, UT
(18
to 1
7, 1
995
and
1999
), W
I (18
.5 to
18,
199
5).
Raise
d M
inim
um S
choo
l Le
avin
g A
ge R
equi
rem
ent
MS
(16
to 1
7, 1
997)
, NM
(16
to 1
8, 1
997)
.D
C (1
7 to
18,
199
7).
Low
ered
Min
imum
Lea
ving
A
ge R
equi
rem
ent
Non
e.N
one.
Not
e: Th
e ye
ar o
f cha
nge
as w
ell a
s the
initi
al an
d fin
al va
lue
for t
he a
ge re
quirm
ent a
re re
porte
d in
par
enth
eses
.
Sour
ce: G
ED
Tes
ting
Serv
ice A
nnua
l Rep
orts
: "W
ho T
ook
the
GE
D?"
(var
ious
yea
rs) a
nd D
iges
t of E
duca
tion
Stat
istics
(var
ious
ye
ars)
.
25
standards on the high school dropout rate.
Weighted OLS estimates of γ from the full model both controlling and not controlling for
changes in minimum age requirements are summarized in Table E-2.2 The other parameter
estimates are available in Table G-27. Using the full specification, the overall effect of
the reform is a 1.3 percentage point reduction in the dropout rate in treatment states.
The estimated effect on the upper level dropout rate remains close to 3 percentage points
and is statistically significant. The estimated effect on the overall lower level dropout rate
remains small and statistically insignificant. In general, the estimates including state level
fixed effects but not controlling for changes in minimum age requirements are smaller than
estimates based on the full specification. The regression-adjusted dropout and GED testing
rate estimates are for the most part smaller but in close agreement with the unadjusted
estimates reported in the text.
The fixed effects estimates by race are consistent with the unadjusted estimates as well.
Again, the estimated treatment effect is greater for minorities compared to whites. As is true
of the estimates reported in the text, the largest effect is on the upper level dropout rate.
Increasing GED passing requirements decreased the upper level dropout rate in treatment
states by 1.3 percentage points for whites, 4.8 percentage points for blacks and 6.2 percentage
points for Hispanics.
2GLS estimates of the model are also available in the Web Appendix and match those reported in thetext. The results also hold with serially correlated errors.
26
Tab
leE
-2:
Wei
ghte
dO
LS
Fix
edE
ffec
tsE
stim
ates
ofth
eIm
pac
tof
the
1997
GE
DR
efor
mon
Var
ious
Dro
pou
tR
ate
Mea
sure
s
Dep
en
den
t V
ari
ab
leA
ll R
aces
Wh
ites
Bla
ck
sH
isp
an
ics
All
Races
Wh
ites
Bla
ck
sH
isp
an
ics
Tre
atm
ent
Eff
ect
-1.2
1%
-0.4
7%
-0.8
3%
-2.6
8%
-1.2
9%
-0.4
3%
-1.2
9%
-2.7
4%
95%
CI
Hub
er-W
hit
e Sta
nd
ard
Err
ors
(-1.9
4%
, -0
.48%
)(-
0.8
0%
, -0
.13%
)(-
2.8
6%
, 1.1
2%
)(-
3.6
1%
, -1
.75%
)(-
2.0
6%
, -0
.53%
)(-
0.7
6%
, -0
.11%
)(-
3.4
0%
, 0.8
3%
)(-
3.6
0%
, -1
.89%
)
95%
CI
Co
nle
y-T
aber
Sta
nd
ard
Err
ors
(-2.0
6%
, 0.2
5%
)(-
0.7
5%
, 1.7
4%
)(-
2.0
2%
, 4.7
7%
)(-
10.7
7%
, 1.1
0%
)(-
2.1
4%
, -0
.37%
)(-
0.7
5%
, 0.8
4%
)(-
2.8
0%
, 1.5
5%
)(-
5.6
9%
, -1
.09%
)
90%
CI
Co
nle
y-T
aber
Sta
nd
ard
Err
ors
(-1.9
1%
, -0
.01%
)(-
0.6
8%
, 1.3
6%
)(-
1.6
1%
, 3.6
9%
)(-
9.4
2%
, 0.4
3%
)(-
1.9
9%
, -0
.51%
)(-
0.6
8%
, 0.6
4%
)(-
2.5
4%
, 1.0
6%
)(-
5.2
1%
, -1
.46%
)
Tre
atm
ent
Eff
ect
-0.4
6%
-0.0
2%
0.3
7%
-1.3
8%
-0.5
5%
0.0
0%
0.0
9%
-1.3
8%
95%
CI
Hub
er-W
hit
e Sta
nd
ard
Err
ors
(-1.5
3%
, 0.6
0%
)(-
0.9
6%
, 0.9
1%
)(-
2.8
3%
, 3.5
7%
)(-
2.6
7%
, -0
.095%
)(-
1.6
7%
, 0.5
7%
)(-
0.9
7%
, 0.9
7%
)(-
3.3
8%
, 3.5
7%
)(-
2.4
6%
, -0
.31%
)
95%
CI
Co
nle
y-T
aber
Sta
nd
ard
Err
ors
(-1.5
4%
, 1.1
1%
)(-
0.7
6%
, 1.8
9%
)(-
2.0
8%
, 8.9
9%
)(-
11.3
3%
, 2.9
5%
)(-
1.6
1%
, 0.5
9%
)(-
0.7
6%
, 1.0
0%
)(-
2.3
7%
, 4.7
4%
)(-
6.0
7%
, 0.3
9%
)
90%
CI
Co
nle
y-T
aber
Sta
nd
ard
Err
ors
(-1.3
8%
, 0.8
5%
)(-
0.6
3%
, 1.5
1%
)(-
1.5
1%
, 7.3
4%
)(-
9.9
0%
, 2.2
0%
)(-
1.4
1%
, 0.3
9%
)(-
0.6
3%
, 0.8
1%
)(-
2.0
9%
, 3.8
4%
)(-
5.3
1%
, -0
.02%
)
Tre
atm
ent
Eff
ect
-2.8
6%
-1.3
8%
-4.0
2%
-5.9
9%
-2.9
5%
-1.3
2%
-4.8
4%
-6.1
6%
95%
CI
Hub
er-W
hit
e Sta
nd
ard
Err
ors
(-4.2
5%
, -1
.47%
)(-
3.1
4%
, 0.3
8%
)(-
7.8
3%
, -0
.21%
)(-
6.6
4%
, -5
.34%
)(-
4.3
0%
, -1
.60%
)(-
3.2
3%
, 0.5
9%
)(-
8.7
6%
, -0
.91%
)(-
7.5
2%
, -5
.16%
)
95%
CI
Co
nle
y-T
aber
Sta
nd
ard
Err
ors
(-5.1
9%
, -1
.04%
)(-
2.8
2%
, 0.8
4%
)(-
7.9
1%
, 2.4
7%
)(-
7.9
0%
, 0.0
0%
)(-
5.1
8%
, -1
.14%
)(-
2.8
5%
, 0.4
5%
)(-
9.0
1%
, 0.2
9%
)(-
7.5
6%
, 0.3
4%
)
90%
CI
Co
nle
y-T
aber
Sta
nd
ard
Err
ors
(-4.8
0%
, -1
.31%
)(-
2.5
4%
, 0.4
8%
)(-
7.0
0%
, 1.5
6%
)(-
7.3
9%
, -0
.98%
)(-
4.8
6%
, -1
.40%
)(-
2.5
4%
, 0.2
1%
)(-
8.1
9%
, -0
.50%
)(-
7.1
1%
, -0
.52%
)
Tre
atm
ent
Eff
ect
-0.5
5%
……
…-0
.57%
……
…
95%
CI
Hub
er-W
hit
e Sta
nd
ard
Err
ors
(-0.8
7%
, -0
.23%
)(-
0.9
4%
, -0
.21%
)
95%
CI
Co
nle
y-T
aber
Sta
nd
ard
Err
ors
(-1.0
0%
, -
0.3
8%
)…
……
(-1.0
2%
, -0
.41%
)…
……
90%
CI
Co
nle
y-T
aber
Sta
nd
ard
Err
ors
(-0.9
4%
, -
0.4
2%
)…
……
(-0.9
5%
, -0
.46%
)…
……
Tre
atm
ent
Eff
ect
-0.3
4%
……
…-0
.36%
……
…
95%
CI
Hub
er-W
hit
e Sta
nd
ard
Err
ors
(-0.6
6%
, -0
.02%
)(-
0.7
1%
, -0
.023%
)
95%
CI
Co
nle
y-T
aber
Sta
nd
ard
Err
ors
(-1.0
7%
, -
0.1
4%
)…
……
(-1.0
7%
, -
0.1
7%
)…
……
90%
CI
Co
nle
y-T
aber
Sta
nd
ard
Err
ors
(-1.0
0%
, -
0.2
0%
)…
……
(-0.9
8%
, -
0.2
4%
)…
……
Tre
atm
ent
Eff
ect
-0.7
6%
……
…-0
.77%
……
…
95%
CI
Hub
er-W
hit
e Sta
nd
ard
Err
ors
(-1.2
0%
, -0
.32%
)(-
1.2
8%
, -0
.26%
)
95%
CI
Co
nle
y-T
aber
Sta
nd
ard
Err
ors
(-1.1
3%
, -
0.4
2%
)…
……
(-1.1
7%
, -
0.4
7%
)…
……
90%
CI
Co
nle
y-T
aber
Sta
nd
ard
Err
ors
(-1.0
5%
, -
0.4
7%
)…
……
(-1.0
8%
, -
0.5
1%
)…
……
No
te: C
on
ley-
Tab
er a
dju
sted
co
nfi
den
ce in
terv
als
are
in p
aren
thes
es. T
he
full r
egre
ssio
n s
pec
ific
atio
ns
are
pre
sen
ted
in
th
e w
eb a
pp
end
ix. U
nle
ss o
ther
wis
e st
ated
th
e m
od
el is
esti
mat
ed u
sin
g O
LS. Sta
te 1
5-1
7 y
ear
old
po
pula
tio
ns
(by
race
fo
r re
levan
t re
gres
sio
ns)
are
use
d a
s w
eigh
ts. T
he
esti
mat
e re
po
rted
ab
ove
is t
he
inte
ract
ion
bet
wee
n t
he
trea
tmen
t st
ate
dum
my
and
th
e p
ost
per
iod
dum
my,
wh
ere
the
trea
tmen
t st
ate
dum
my
is e
qual
to
1 f
or
trea
tmen
t st
ates
an
d t
he
po
st p
erio
d d
um
my
is e
qual
to
1 f
or
the
year
s 1998-2
000, o
ther
wis
e b
oth
dum
mie
s ar
e eq
ual
to
0. Sta
tes
wit
h f
ewer
th
an t
wo
ob
serv
atio
ns
per
per
iod
are
dro
pp
ed f
or
"all
race
s" r
egre
ssio
ns.
Sta
tes
wit
h f
ewer
th
an t
wo
ob
serv
atio
ns
per
per
iod
fo
r an
y o
f th
e d
rop
out
rate
mea
sure
s b
y ra
ce a
re d
rop
ped
fo
r b
y ra
ce r
egre
ssio
ns.
Tre
atm
ent
stat
es a
re t
ho
se s
tate
s th
at w
ere
requir
ed t
o e
lim
inat
e
the
and
/o
r sc
ore
op
tio
n. T
hes
e in
clud
e: L
A, M
S, N
E, N
M, T
X. U
nle
ss o
ther
wis
e st
ated
co
ntr
ol st
ates
are
th
ose
th
at w
ere
no
t re
quir
ed t
o r
aise
th
eir
GE
D m
inim
um
sco
re r
equir
emen
t. T
hes
e in
clud
e: A
R, C
A, C
O,
DE
, D
C, F
L, ID
, K
Y, M
D, M
O, N
J, N
Y, N
D, O
K, O
R, SD
, U
T, W
A, W
V, W
I. F
rom
th
ese
stat
es t
he
follo
win
g h
ad t
o b
e d
rop
ped
fro
m t
he
"by
race
" re
gres
sio
ns
due
to m
issi
ng
and
neg
ativ
e d
rop
out
rate
s: A
R, ID
,
KY
, M
O, N
D, N
J, N
Y, SD
, U
T, W
A, W
V. T
he
stat
e o
f N
J is
als
o d
rop
ped
fro
m t
he
"all r
aces
" re
gres
sio
ns.
Sco
re c
han
ger
stat
es a
re t
ho
se s
tate
s th
at w
ere
requir
ed t
o r
aise
th
eir
min
imum
sco
re r
equir
emen
t fr
om
35
to 4
0 in
1997. T
hes
e in
clud
e: A
K, A
L, A
Z, C
T, G
A, H
I, I
A, IL
, IN
, K
S, M
A, M
E, M
I, M
N, M
T, N
C, N
H, N
V, O
H, P
A, R
I, S
C, T
N, V
A, V
T, W
Y. F
rom
th
ese
stat
es t
he
follo
win
g ar
e d
rop
ped
due
to m
issi
ng
and
neg
ativ
e d
rop
out
rate
s: A
L, A
Z, IA
, M
E, M
N, M
T, N
H, SC
, T
N, V
T, W
Y. N
o t
reat
men
t st
ates
are
dro
pp
ed f
rom
an
y o
f th
e re
gres
sio
ns.
Sta
tes
that
ch
ange
d t
he
min
imum
age
req
uir
ed t
o d
rop
out
incl
ud
e: D
C (
fro
m
ori
gin
al c
on
tro
l gr
oup
), M
S a
nd
NM
(b
oth
fro
m t
reat
men
t gr
oup
). S
tate
s th
at c
han
ged
eit
her
sch
oo
l le
avin
g o
r G
ED
age
req
uir
emen
ts in
clud
e:
AR
, D
C, K
Y, M
O, O
K, O
R, SD
, U
T, W
I (f
rom
ori
gin
al c
on
tro
l gr
oup
)
and
MS, N
E a
nd
NM
(fr
om
tre
atm
ent
gro
up
).
Tab
le 5
. W
eigh
ted
OL
S F
ixed
Eff
ects
Est
imat
es o
f th
e Im
pac
t o
f th
e 1997 G
ED
Ref
orm
on
Var
ious
Dro
po
ut
Rat
e M
easu
res
No
t C
on
tro
llin
g f
or
Min
imu
m A
ge R
eq
uir
em
en
tsC
on
tro
llin
g f
or
Min
imu
m A
ge R
eq
uir
em
en
ts
10th
-12th
Gra
de
Dro
po
ut
Rat
e
10th
-11th
Gra
de
Dro
po
ut
Rat
e
12th
Gra
de
Dro
po
ut
Rat
e
GE
D T
esti
ng
Rat
e
Age
s 16-1
9
GE
D T
esti
ng
Rat
e
Age
s 16-1
7
GE
D T
esti
ng
Rat
e
Age
s 18-1
9
Note
:C
on
ley-T
ab
erad
just
edco
nfi
den
cein
terv
als
are
inp
are
nth
eses
.T
he
full
regre
ssio
nsp
ecifi
cati
on
sare
pre
sente
din
the
Web
Ap
pen
dix
.U
nle
ssoth
erw
ise
state
dth
em
od
el
ises
tim
ate
du
sin
gO
LS
.S
tate
15-1
7yea
rold
pop
ula
tion
s(b
yra
cefo
rre
levant
regre
ssio
ns)
are
use
das
wei
ghts
.T
he
esti
mate
rep
ort
edab
ove
isth
ein
tera
ctio
nb
etw
een
the
trea
tmen
tst
ate
du
mm
yan
dth
ep
ost
per
iod
du
mm
y,w
her
eth
etr
eatm
ent
state
du
mm
yis
equ
al
to1
for
trea
tmen
tst
ate
san
dth
ep
ost
per
iod
du
mm
yis
equ
al
to1
for
the
yea
rs1998-2
000,
oth
erw
ise
both
du
mm
ies
are
equ
al
to0.
Sta
tes
wit
hfe
wer
than
two
ob
serv
ati
on
sp
erp
erio
dare
dro
pp
edfo
r“all
race
s”re
gre
ssio
ns.
Sta
tes
wit
hfe
wer
than
two
ob
serv
ati
on
sp
erp
erio
dfo
rany
of
the
dro
pou
tra
tem
easu
res
by
race
are
dro
pp
edfo
rby
race
regre
ssio
ns.
Tre
atm
ent
state
sare
those
state
sth
at
wer
ere
qu
ired
toel
imin
ate
the
an
d/or
score
op
tion
.T
hes
ein
clu
de:
LA
,M
S,
NE
,N
M,
TX
.U
nle
ssoth
erw
ise
state
dco
ntr
ol
state
sare
those
that
wer
en
ot
requ
ired
tora
ise
thei
rG
ED
min
imu
msc
ore
requ
irem
ent.
Th
ese
incl
ud
e:A
R,
CA
,C
O,
DE
,D
C,
FL
,ID
,K
Y,
MD
,M
O,
NJ,
NY
,N
D,
OK
,O
R,
SD
,U
T,
WA
,W
V,
WI.
Fro
mth
ese
state
sth
efo
llow
ing
had
tob
ed
ropp
ed
from
the
”by
race
”re
gre
ssio
ns
du
eto
mis
sin
gan
dn
egati
ve
dro
pou
tra
tes:
AR
,ID
,K
Y,
MO
,N
D,
NJ,
NY
,S
D,
UT
,W
A,
WV
.T
he
state
of
NJ
isals
od
rop
ped
from
the
”all
race
s”re
gre
ssio
ns.
Sco
rech
an
ger
state
sare
those
state
sth
at
wer
ere
qu
ired
tora
ise
thei
rm
inim
um
score
requ
irem
ent
from
35
to40
in1997.
Thes
ein
clu
de:
AK
,A
L,
AZ
,C
T,
GA
,H
I,IA
,IL
,IN
,K
S,
MA
,M
E,
MI,
MN
,M
T,
NC
,N
H,
NV
,O
H,
PA
,R
I,S
C,
TN
,V
A,
VT
,W
Y.
Fro
mth
ese
state
sth
efo
llow
ing
are
dro
pp
edd
ue
tom
issi
ng
an
dn
egati
ve
dro
pou
tra
tes:
AL
,A
Z,
IA,
ME
,M
N,
MT
,N
H,
SC
,T
N,
VT
,W
Y.
No
trea
tmen
tst
ate
sare
dro
pp
edfr
om
any
of
the
regre
ssio
ns.
Sta
tes
that
chan
ged
the
min
imu
mage
requ
ired
tod
rop
ou
tin
clu
de:
DC
(fro
mori
gin
al
contr
ol
gro
up
),M
San
dN
M(b
oth
from
trea
tmen
tgro
up
).S
tate
sth
at
chan
ged
eith
ersc
hool
leavin
gor
GE
Dage
requ
irem
ents
incl
ud
e:
AR
,D
C,
KY
,M
O,
OK
,O
R,
SD
,U
T,
WI
(fro
mori
gin
al
contr
ol
gro
up
)an
dM
S,
NE
an
dN
M(f
rom
trea
tmen
tgro
up
).
27
Table E-3: Summary Statistics of Variables Used in the Analysis
Mean N Mean N Mean N Mean N
10th-12th Grade Dropout Rate
Overall .105 .090 .100 .098
(.019) (.021) (.033) (.032)
Whites .079 .070 .086 .082
(.019) (.019) (.029) (.030)
Blacks .140 .124 .158 .152
(.012) (.018) (.041) (.044)
Hispanics .142 .109 .158 .143
(.020) (.019) (.018) (.014)
10th-11th Grade Dropout Rate
Overall .112 .105 .105 .102
(.022) (.023) (.041) (.043)
Whites .089 .085 .086 .082
(.024) (.023) (.037) (.042)
Blacks .140 .134 .170 .160
(.019) (.015) (.042) (.051)
Hispanics .152 .133 .165 .143
(.025) (.020) (.025) (.021)
12th Grade Dropout Rate
Overall .088 .052 .095 .088
(.016) (.025) (.034) (.035)
Whites .057 .036 .086 .079
(.016) (.018) (.034) (.032)
Blacks .139 .099 .124 .129
(.019) (.035) (.058) (.039)
Hipsanics .114 .049 .138 .143
(.019) (.024) (.033) (.036)
GED Testing Rate
Ages 16-19 0.031 0.027 0.020 0.021
(.007) (.005) (.007) (.008)
Ages 16-17 0.026 0.025 0.014 0.015
(.006) (.005) (.009) (.009)
Ages 18-19 .036 .029 .026 .027
(.009) (.007) (.007) (.009)
Time Varying Covariates
Minimum dropout age 16.78 17.00 16.92 16.92
(.425) (.347) (.991) (.993)
Minimum GED testing age 17.65 17.73 17.71 17.88
(.569) (.564) (1.031) (.937)
Log per capita income 9.91 10.12 10.07 10.27
(.087) (.114) (.133) (.143)
Local unemployment rate .062 .047 .062 .046
(.010) (.007) (.014) (.009)
15
57
57
57
57
57
57
57
57
57
14
14
15
15
15
15
15
15
14
15
15
57
57
15
15 57
57
15 26 26
14 15 27 26
57
26
14 15 27 27
15 15 56 56
15 15 26
26
15 15 27 27
15 15
15 15
27
57
27
27
27
57 57
15
15
27
27
27
Note: Standard deviations in parentheses. The dropout rate is defined as the ratio of students enrolled in a given
grade(s) in year t and the number of students enrolled in the previous grade(s) in year t-1, where t = 1994-2000.
Enrollment data by grade are from the Common Core of Data (CCD). Minimum age required to drop out of school are
from the Digest of Education Statistics (several years). Minimum age required to take the GED are from the yearly
reports published by the GED Testing Service: "Who Took the GED?" (several years). Local unemployment rates are
computed using monthly data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Log of per capita income are computed using data
from the Census Bureau. All calculations are weighted by the 15-17 year old population in each state.
Table A-1. Summary Statistics of Variables Used in the Anlaysis
Treatment Group States Control Group States
Pre-1997
(N=15)
Post-1997
(N=15)
Pre-1997
(N=57)
Post-1997
(N=57)
57
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
Note: Standard deviations in parentheses. The dropout rate is defined as the ratio of students enrolled in a given grade(s) in
year t and the number of students enrolled in the previous grade(s) in year t−1, where t= 1994-2000. Enrollment data by grade
are from the Common Core of Data (CCD). Minimum age required to drop out of school are from the Digest of Education
Statistics (several years). Minimum age required to take the GED are from the yearly reports published by the GED Testing
Service: ”Who Took the GED?” (several years). Local unemployment rates are computed using monthly data from the Bureau
of Labor Statistics. Log of per capita income are computed using data from the Census Bureau. All calculations are weighted
by the 15-17 year old population in each state. 28
F Supplementary Material for the Analysis of the GED
Option Program
29
Fig
ure
F-1
:M
edia
nD
ays
ofE
nro
llm
ent
inG
ED
Opti
on,
by
Sta
te:
2008
–09
Sch
ool
Yea
r
75
68
101
87
New
Ham
pshire (N
=0)
Oregon (N=2,276)
Tenn
essee (N=375)
Texas (N=773)
Virginia (N
=3,044)
Wisconsin (N
=o)
r of GED Option Candidates)
Med
ian Days of Enrollm
ent in GED
Option, by State: 2008‐09
Schoo
l Year
Med
ian Num
ber o
f Days
of Enrollm
ent o
f GED
Option Cand
idates: 105
NA NA
168
72
217
99
94
050
100
150
200
250
Florida (N=3,755)
Kentucky (N
=70)
Louisiana (N=1,186)
Mississippi (N
=1,018)
Missouri (N=2,117)
Med
ian Num
ber o
f Days
State (Numbe
Sour
ce:
GE
DO
ptio
nSt
atis
tica
lR
epor
t(2
009)
.
30
Fig
ure
F-2
:M
edia
nP
repar
atio
nH
ours
ofG
ED
Opti
onC
andid
ates
,by
Sta
te:
2008
–09
Sch
ool
Yea
r
Med
ian Prep
aration Hou
rs of G
ED Option Ca
ndidates, by State: 2008‐09
Scho
ol Year
60
50
Virginia (N
=2,663
)
Wisconsin (N
=2,565
)Med
ian Num
ber of
Prep
arationHou
rs of G
ED
Option Cand
idates: 80
50
60
Tenn
essee (N=426
)
Texas (N=495
)
Candidates)
45
20
New
Ham
pshire (N
=65)
Oregon (N=1,927
)
r of GED Option C
150
120
137
Louisiana(N
111
7)
Mississippi (N
=1,053
)
Missouri (N=2,150
)
State (Numbe
79
75
150
Florida(N=2
614)
Kentucky (N
=61)
Louisiana (N=1,117
)
79
020
4060
8010
012
014
016
0
Florida (N
2,61
4)
Med
ian Num
ber o
f Hou
rs
Sour
ce:
GE
DO
ptio
nSt
atis
tica
lR
epor
t(2
009)
.
31
Fig
ure
F-3
:N
inth
Gra
de
Coh
ort
Gra
duat
ion
Sta
tus
ofG
ED
Opti
onC
andid
ates
,by
Sta
te:
2008
–09
Sch
ool
Yea
r
Ninth Grade
Coh
ort G
radu
ation Status of G
ED Option Ca
ndidates, by
State: 2008‐09
Schoo
l Year
83.8%
84.2%
Wisconsin (N
=3,612
)
GED
Option Total
95.5%
78.1%
91.8%
Tenn
essee (N=443
)
Texas (N=517
)
Virginia (N
=3,187
)
Candidates)
82.7%
New
Ham
pshire (N
=NA)
Oregon (N=2,409
)
()
er of GED Option
NA
86.0%
88.6%
72.5%
Louisiana (N=1,258
)
Mississippi (N
=1,132
)
Missouri (N=2,425
)
State (Numbe
84.0%89
.6%
Florida (N=3,767
)
Kentucky (N
=67)
0%20
%40
%60
%80
%10
0%12
0%
Percen
t Did Not Gradu
ate Ye
t
Sour
ce:
GE
DO
ptio
nSt
atis
tica
lR
epor
t(2
009)
.
32
Tab
leF
-1:
Sta
tes
Issu
ing
Cre
den
tial
sIn
dis
tingu
ishab
lefr
omH
igh
Sch
ool
Dip
lom
as(2
008)
State
Credential Title
Arkansas
Arkansas High School D
iploma
Connecticut
Connecticut State High School D
iploma
Florida
State of Florida High School D
iploma
Haw
aii
High School D
iploma
Kansas
Kansas State High School D
iploma
Maryland
Maryland High School D
iploma
New
Jersey
New
Jersey State Issued
High School D
iploma
New
Mexico
New
Mexico High School D
iploma
Oklahoma
Oklahoma High School D
iploma
Pen
nsylvania
Commonwealth Secondary School D
iploma
Source: GED
Statistical Rep
ort 2008
Not
es:
Incl
udes
year
and
dist
rict
back
grou
ndch
arac
teri
stic
san
dco
vari
ates
.
33
Fig
ure
F-4
:T
he
Eff
ect
ofR
egula
rSch
ool
sO
pti
onP
rogr
amon
Hig
hSch
ool
Coh
ort
Com
ple
tion
Rat
es.
1.1%
1.0%
1.5%
2%3%4%eter Rates
0%1%2%
or Other Comple
-3%
-2%
-1%
hort Diploma o
‐3.0%
-5%
-4%
-3%
t Change in Coh
‐3.8%
‐3.6%
-7%
-6%
Dip
lom
a R
ate
(8th
)D
iplo
ma
Rat
e (9
th)
Dip
lom
a R
ate
(10t
h)
Percen
Dip
lom
as (O
ptio
n In
Nor
mal
Sch
ools
)O
ther
Com
plet
ers
(Opt
ion
In N
orm
al S
choo
ls)
Sou
rce:
Nati
on
al
Cen
ter
for
Ed
uca
tion
Sta
tist
ics,
Com
mon
Core
Data
an
dO
regon
Sch
ool
Dis
tric
tsA
dm
inis
trati
ve
Data
.N
ote
s:C
oh
ort
com
ple
tion
rate
sare
defi
ned
as
the
nu
mb
erof
dip
lom
as
issu
edd
ivid
edby
8th
,9th
,or
10th
gra
de
enro
llm
ent
lagged
the
ap
pro
pri
ate
nu
mb
erof
yea
rs.
We
show
coh
ort
com
ple
tion
rate
sfo
r8th
,9th
,an
d10th
gra
de
as
ach
eck
of
rob
ust
nes
s.T
he
defi
nit
ion
of
oth
erco
mp
lete
rsin
clu
des
stu
den
tsw
ho
GE
Dce
rtif
yth
rou
gh
ad
istr
ict
or
state
san
ctio
ned
cert
ifica
tion
pro
gra
m,
an
dth
us
shou
ldca
ptu
rest
ud
ents
wh
oG
ED
cert
ify
thro
ugh
the
GE
DO
pti
on
pro
gra
m.
Ore
gon
was
gra
nte
dp
erm
issi
on
tooff
erth
eG
ED
Op
tion
by
the
Am
eric
an
Cou
nci
lon
Ed
uca
tion
in2001,
bu
tn
osc
hools
imp
lem
ente
dp
rogra
ms
unti
lth
e2001-2
002
sch
ool
yea
r.R
egre
ssio
ns
incl
ud
eco
ntr
ols
for
per
cent
bla
cken
rollm
ent,
per
cent
His
pan
icen
rollm
ent,
per
cent
free
lun
chel
igib
le,
per
cent
free
or
red
uce
dlu
nch
elig
ible
,p
up
ilte
ach
erra
tio,
exp
end
itu
res
per
pu
pil,
reven
ue
per
pu
pil,
an
dd
istr
ict
an
dyea
rfi
xed
effec
ts.
Reg
ress
ion
sin
clu
de
2001-2
002
sch
ool
yea
rth
rou
gh
2007-2
008
sch
ool
yea
r.A
nalt
ern
ati
ve
Op
tion
pro
gra
mis
defi
ned
as
on
eth
at
was
not
pre
sent
intr
ad
itio
nal
hig
hsc
hools
,b
ut
on
lyin
com
mu
nit
y
colleg
esor
oth
erin
stit
uti
on
s.E
rror
bars
show
stan
dard
erro
rs.
34
Fig
ure
F-5
:D
escr
ipti
veC
ompar
ison
sof
Dis
tric
tsw
ith
and
wit
hou
tG
ED
Opti
onP
rogr
ams
(200
0,pri
orto
GE
DO
pti
on).
35%
40%
45%
20%
25%
30% 5%10%
15% 0%
Dis
trict
Opt
ion
No
Dis
trict
Opt
ion
Any
GE
D O
ptio
nN
o O
ptio
n
Sou
rce:
Nati
on
al
Cen
ter
for
Ed
uca
tion
Sta
tist
ics,
Com
mon
Core
Data
an
dO
regon
Sch
ool
Dis
tric
tsA
dm
inis
trati
ve
Data
.N
ote
s:A
llm
easu
res
are
from
yea
r2000,
pri
or
toth
e
availab
ilit
yof
the
GE
DO
pti
on
pro
gra
m.
35
Fig
ure
F-6
:D
escr
ipti
veC
ompar
ison
sof
Dis
tric
tsw
ith
and
wit
hou
tG
ED
Opti
onP
rogr
ams
(200
0,pri
orto
GE
DO
pti
on)
101520253035404550 05
Dip
lom
a R
ate
(9th
)To
tal E
nrol
lmen
tP
upil
Teac
her
Rat
ioR
even
ue P
er
Pup
ilE
xpen
ditu
res
Per
Pup
ilP
er C
apita
In
com
eM
edia
n Fa
mily
In
com
e
Dis
trict
Opt
ion
No
Dis
trict
Opt
ion
Any
GE
D O
ptio
nN
o O
ptio
n
Sou
rce:
Nati
on
alC
ente
rfo
rE
du
cati
on
Sta
tist
ics,
Com
mon
Core
Data
an
dO
regon
Sch
oolD
istr
icts
Ad
min
istr
ati
ve
Data
.N
ote
s:T
ota
len
rollm
ent,
reven
ue
per
pu
pil,ex
pen
dit
ure
s
per
pu
pil,
per
-cap
ita
inco
me,
an
dm
edia
nfa
mily
inco
me
are
inth
ou
san
ds
of
yea
r2000
dollars
.A
llm
easu
res
are
from
yea
r2000,
pri
or
toth
eavailab
ilit
yof
the
GE
DO
pti
on
pro
gra
m.
36
Tab
leF
-2:
The
Eff
ect
ofD
istr
ict-
Wid
eO
pti
onP
rogr
ams
onC
ohor
tD
iplo
ma
Rat
esin
Ore
gon
Dip
lom
aR
ate
(8th
)D
iplo
ma
Rat
e(9
th)
Dip
lom
aR
ate
(10t
h)
Per
c.B
lack
Enro
llm
ent
1.02
1-0
.598
0.33
1(1
.071
)(0
.909
)(0
.712
)
Per
c.H
ispan
icE
nro
llm
ent
-0.8
53∗
0.07
840.
210
(0.5
14)
(0.2
93)
(0.2
45)
Per
cF
ree
Lunch
-0.3
45-0
.077
1-0
.210
(0.7
09)
(0.3
21)
(0.2
77)
Per
cR
educe
dor
Fre
eL
unch
-0.2
03-0
.237
-0.1
55(0
.452
)(0
.216
)(0
.200
)
Pupil
Tea
cher
Rat
io-0
.000
216
-0.0
0013
7-0
.000
342
(0.0
0024
4)(0
.000
244)
(0.0
0029
9)
Exp
endit
ure
sP
erP
upil
-0.0
0605∗∗
-0.0
0329
0.00
0567
(0.0
0279
)(0
.002
32)
(0.0
0198
)
Rev
enue
Per
Pupil
-0.0
157
-0.0
0526
-0.0
0666
(0.0
123)
(0.0
108)
(0.0
110)
Dis
t.W
ide
Opti
on-0
.042
4∗∗
-0.0
297∗
-0.0
420∗∗∗
(0.0
211)
(0.0
154)
(0.0
151)
Con
stan
t1.
214∗∗∗
0.88
6∗∗∗
0.91
6∗∗∗
(0.1
81)
(0.1
29)
(0.1
23)
Obse
rvat
ions
1552
1552
1552
R2
0.54
20.
562
0.35
7A
dju
sted
R2
0.47
70.
500
0.26
6
Yea
ran
dD
istr
ict
Fix
edE
ffect
sN
otSh
own
End
ogen
ous
vari
able
isa
coho
rtgr
adua
tion
mea
sure
∗p
<0.
10,∗∗
p<
0.05
,∗∗∗
p<
0.01
37
Tab
leF
-3:
The
Eff
ect
ofD
istr
ict-
Wid
eO
pti
onP
rogr
ams
onC
ohor
tO
ther
-Com
ple
ter
Rat
esin
Ore
gon
Oth
er-C
omple
ter
Rat
e(8
th)
Oth
er-C
omple
ter
Rat
e(9
th)
Oth
er-C
omple
ter
Rat
e(1
0th)
Per
c.B
lack
Enro
llm
ent
0.67
40.
258
0.18
1(0
.833
)(1
.181
)(1
.087
)
Per
c.H
ispan
icE
nro
llm
ent
-0.1
38-0
.036
1-0
.133
(0.2
12)
(0.2
17)
(0.1
94)
Per
cF
ree
Lunch
-0.3
99-0
.285
-0.0
678
(0.5
03)
(0.4
85)
(0.2
97)
Per
cR
educe
dor
Fre
eL
unch
0.33
00.
262
0.06
59(0
.339
)(0
.327
)(0
.205
)
Pupil
Tea
cher
Rat
io0.
0040
7∗0.
0057
1∗∗
0.00
313
(0.0
0245
)(0
.002
85)
(0.0
0304
)
Exp
endit
ure
sP
erP
upil
-0.0
0020
30.
0001
990.
0020
3(0
.002
12)
(0.0
0219
)(0
.002
37)
Rev
enue
Per
Pupil
0.00
0921
0.00
506
0.00
380
(0.0
0788
)(0
.009
36)
(0.0
0924
)
Dis
t.W
ide
Opti
on0.
0173∗
0.01
74∗
0.01
74∗
(0.0
104)
(0.0
101)
(0.0
0954
)
Con
stan
t0.
0310
-0.0
744
0.01
21(0
.111
)(0
.103
)(0
.111
)
Obse
rvat
ions
1134
1134
1134
R2
0.35
20.
330
0.32
5A
dju
sted
R2
0.22
00.
195
0.18
8
Yea
ran
dD
istr
ict
Fix
edE
ffect
sN
otSh
own
End
ogen
ous
vari
able
isa
coho
rtgr
adua
tion
mea
sure
∗p
<0.
10,∗∗
p<
0.05
,∗∗∗
p<
0.01
38
Tab
leF
-4:
The
Eff
ect
ofO
pti
onP
rogr
ams
only
inA
lter
nat
ive
Sch
ool
son
Coh
ort
Dip
lom
aR
ates
inO
rego
n
Dip
lom
aR
ate
(8th
)D
iplo
ma
Rat
e(9
th)
Dip
lom
aR
ate
(10t
h)
Per
c.B
lack
Enro
llm
ent
0.98
5-0
.619
0.28
8(1
.068
)(0
.912
)(0
.709
)
Per
c.H
ispan
icE
nro
llm
ent
-0.8
330.
0883
0.24
0(0
.512
)(0
.291
)(0
.243
)
Per
cF
ree
Lunch
-0.3
58-0
.087
0-0
.223
(0.7
10)
(0.3
22)
(0.2
78)
Per
cR
educe
dor
Fre
eL
unch
-0.1
93-0
.231
-0.1
45(0
.452
)(0
.216
)(0
.200
)
Pupil
Tea
cher
Rat
io-0
.000
240
-0.0
0015
2-0
.000
368
(0.0
0024
4)(0
.000
247)
(0.0
0030
5)
Exp
endit
ure
sP
erP
upil
-0.0
0600∗∗
-0.0
0327
0.00
0651
(0.0
0280
)(0
.002
33)
(0.0
0199
)
Rev
enue
Per
Pupil
-0.0
153
-0.0
0497
-0.0
0626
(0.0
122)
(0.0
108)
(0.0
110)
Opti
onP
rogr
amon
lyin
Alt
.In
stit
uti
ons
0.02
490.
0269
0.00
393
(0.0
222)
(0.0
191)
(0.0
205)
Con
stan
t1.
219∗∗∗
0.89
0∗∗∗
0.92
0∗∗∗
(0.1
82)
(0.1
30)
(0.1
24)
Obse
rvat
ions
1552
1552
1552
R2
0.54
20.
562
0.35
6A
dju
sted
R2
0.47
70.
499
0.26
5
Yea
ran
dD
istr
ict
Fix
edE
ffect
sN
otSh
own
End
ogen
ous
vari
able
isa
coho
rtgr
adua
tion
mea
sure
∗p
<0.
10,∗∗
p<
0.05
,∗∗∗
p<
0.01
39
Tab
leF
-5:
The
Eff
ect
ofO
pti
onP
rogr
ams
only
inA
lter
nat
ive
Sch
ool
son
Coh
ort
Oth
er-C
omple
ter
Rat
esin
Ore
gon
Oth
er-C
omple
ter
Rat
e(8
th)
Oth
er-C
omple
ter
Rat
e(9
th)
Oth
er-C
omple
ter
Rat
e(1
0th)
Per
c.B
lack
Enro
llm
ent
0.70
70.
289
0.21
0(0
.832
)(1
.179
)(1
.085
)
Per
c.H
ispan
icE
nro
llm
ent
-0.1
67-0
.062
7-0
.157
(0.2
06)
(0.2
11)
(0.1
90)
Per
cF
ree
Lunch
-0.3
92-0
.278
-0.0
607
(0.5
04)
(0.4
86)
(0.2
97)
Per
cR
educe
dor
Fre
eL
unch
0.32
60.
259
0.06
19(0
.340
)(0
.327
)(0
.205
)
Pupil
Tea
cher
Rat
io0.
0041
4∗0.
0057
8∗∗
0.00
320
(0.0
0245
)(0
.002
84)
(0.0
0303
)
Exp
endit
ure
sP
erP
upil
-0.0
0028
00.
0001
410.
0019
9(0
.002
14)
(0.0
0220
)(0
.002
38)
Rev
enue
Per
Pupil
0.00
0701
0.00
483
0.00
355
(0.0
0787
)(0
.009
34)
(0.0
0923
)
Opti
onP
rogr
amon
lyin
Alt
.In
stit
uti
ons
0.01
760.
0136
0.01
02(0
.013
6)(0
.013
3)(0
.013
6)
Con
stan
t0.
0309
-0.0
749
0.01
13(0
.111
)(0
.103
)(0
.111
)
Obse
rvat
ions
1134
1134
1134
R2
0.35
10.
330
0.32
4A
dju
sted
R2
0.22
00.
194
0.18
7
Yea
ran
dD
istr
ict
Fix
edE
ffect
sN
otSh
own
End
ogen
ous
vari
able
isa
coho
rtgr
adua
tion
mea
sure
∗p
<0.
10,∗∗
p<
0.05
,∗∗∗
p<
0.01
40
Tab
leF
-6:
The
Eff
ect
ofO
pti
onP
rogr
ams
inT
radit
ional
Sch
ool
son
Coh
ort
Dip
lom
aR
ates
inO
rego
n
Dip
lom
aR
ate
(8th
)D
iplo
ma
Rat
e(9
th)
Dip
lom
aR
ate
(10t
h)
Per
c.B
lack
Enro
llm
ent
1.18
8-0
.464
0.48
3(1
.098
)(0
.924
)(0
.705
)
Per
c.H
ispan
icE
nro
llm
ent
-0.8
050.
113
0.25
7(0
.511
)(0
.291
)(0
.241
)
Per
cF
ree
Lunch
-0.3
43-0
.075
0-0
.210
(0.7
07)
(0.3
20)
(0.2
77)
Per
cR
educe
dor
Fre
eL
unch
-0.2
06-0
.240
-0.1
57(0
.450
)(0
.216
)(0
.201
)
Pupil
Tea
cher
Rat
io-0
.000
233
-0.0
0014
8-0
.000
359
(0.0
0024
2)(0
.000
243)
(0.0
0029
9)
Exp
endit
ure
sP
erP
upil
-0.0
0572∗∗
-0.0
0304
0.00
0877
(0.0
0282
)(0
.002
34)
(0.0
0198
)
Rev
enue
Per
Pupil
-0.0
162
-0.0
0567
-0.0
0708
(0.0
122)
(0.0
108)
(0.0
110)
Opti
onP
rog.
inR
egula
rSch
ool
s-0
.038
4∗-0
.030
0∗-0
.035
5∗
(0.0
218)
(0.0
170)
(0.0
192)
Con
stan
t1.
206∗∗∗
0.88
0∗∗∗
0.91
0∗∗∗
(0.1
79)
(0.1
28)
(0.1
22)
Obse
rvat
ions
1552
1552
1552
R2
0.54
20.
562
0.35
7A
dju
sted
R2
0.47
70.
500
0.26
6
Yea
ran
dD
istr
ict
Fix
edE
ffect
sN
otSh
own
End
ogen
ous
vari
able
isa
coho
rtgr
adua
tion
mea
sure
∗p
<0.
10,∗∗
p<
0.05
,∗∗∗
p<
0.01
41
Tab
leF
-7:
The
Eff
ect
ofO
pti
onP
rogr
ams
inT
radit
ional
Sch
ool
son
Coh
ort
Oth
er-C
omple
ter
Rat
esin
Ore
gon
Oth
er-C
omple
ter
Rat
e(8
th)
Oth
er-C
omple
ter
Rat
e(9
th)
Oth
er-C
omple
ter
Rat
e(1
0th)
Per
c.B
lack
Enro
llm
ent
0.63
90.
229
0.12
0(0
.843
)(1
.187
)(1
.097
)
Per
c.H
ispan
icE
nro
llm
ent
-0.1
61-0
.058
4-0
.156
(0.2
05)
(0.2
11)
(0.1
89)
Per
cF
ree
Lunch
-0.3
96-0
.281
-0.0
669
(0.5
03)
(0.4
85)
(0.2
97)
Per
cR
educe
dor
Fre
eL
unch
0.32
90.
261
0.06
64(0
.339
)(0
.326
)(0
.204
)
Pupil
Tea
cher
Rat
io0.
0040
5∗0.
0057
0∗∗
0.00
308
(0.0
0244
)(0
.002
84)
(0.0
0305
)
Exp
endit
ure
sP
erP
upil
-0.0
0024
20.
0001
650.
0019
7(0
.002
13)
(0.0
0219
)(0
.002
36)
Rev
enue
Per
Pupil
0.00
0786
0.00
491
0.00
372
(0.0
0788
)(0
.009
35)
(0.0
0922
)
Opti
onP
rog.
inR
egula
rSch
ool
s0.
0107
0.00
956
0.01
51(0
.011
2)(0
.011
0)(0
.010
8)
Con
stan
t0.
0341
-0.0
718
0.01
71(0
.110
)(0
.102
)(0
.111
)
Obse
rvat
ions
1134
1134
1134
R2
0.35
10.
330
0.32
5A
dju
sted
R2
0.22
00.
194
0.18
8
Yea
ran
dD
istr
ict
Fix
edE
ffect
sN
otSh
own
End
ogen
ous
vari
able
isa
coho
rtgr
adua
tion
mea
sure
∗p
<0.
10,∗∗
p<
0.05
,∗∗∗
p<
0.01
42
G Additional Supplementary Materials
43
Fig
ure
G-1
:G
raduat
ion
Rat
eB
efor
ean
dA
fter
Imple
men
ting
the
GE
DP
rogr
am,
Cal
ifor
nia
vs.
All
other
Sta
tes
78.0
%78.4
%
77.3
%
74.3
%74.6
%
72.7
%
71.
8%
76.1
%
75.8
%
74.7
%74.7
%
73.5
%73.7
%73.8
%
65%
67%
69%
71%
73%
75%
77%
79%
81%
83%
85%
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
Graduation Rate
Year
Fig
ure
A-1
. G
rad
uat
ion
Rat
e B
efo
re a
nd
Aft
er I
mp
lem
enti
ng
the
GE
D P
rogra
m, C
alif
orn
ia v
s. A
ll o
ther
Sta
tes
Cal
ifo
rnia
U.S
. (E
xclu
din
g C
alif
orn
ia)
No
tes:
Auth
ors
' cal
cula
tio
ns
bas
ed o
n N
CE
S d
ata.
Th
e gr
aduat
ion
rat
e is
th
e n
um
ber
of
regu
lar
pub
lic a
nd
pri
vat
e h
igh
sch
oo
l d
iplo
mas
iss
ued
over
th
e 14 y
ear
old
po
pula
tio
n
four
year
s p
revio
us.
Po
pula
tio
n t
ota
ls f
or
the
U.S
. w
ere
ob
tain
ed f
rom
th
e U
.S. C
ensu
s B
ure
au. C
alif
orn
ia p
op
ula
tio
n e
stim
ates
wer
e o
bta
ined
fro
m t
he
Cal
ifo
rnia
Dem
ogr
aph
ic
Res
earc
h U
nit
.
Note
s:A
uth
ors
’ca
lcu
lati
on
sb
ase
don
NC
ES
data
.T
he
gra
du
ati
on
rate
isth
enu
mb
erof
regu
lar
pu
blic
an
dp
rivate
hig
hsc
hool
dip
lom
as
issu
edover
the
14
yea
rold
pop
ula
tion
fou
ryea
rsp
revio
us.
Pop
ula
tion
tota
lsfo
rth
eU
.S.
wer
eob
tain
edfr
om
the
U.S
.C
ensu
sB
ure
au
.C
ali
forn
iap
op
ula
tion
esti
mate
sw
ere
ob
tain
edfr
om
the
Califo
rnia
Dem
ogra
ph
ic
Res
earc
hU
nit
.
44
Tab
leG
-1:
Fix
edE
ffec
tsE
stim
ates
ofth
eE
ffec
tof
the
Ref
orm
onG
ED
Tes
tT
akin
gR
ates
by
You
nge
rC
ohor
ts
Ind
epen
den
t V
aria
ble
sG
ED
Tes
t T
akin
g R
ate
(Age
s 16
-19)
GE
D T
est
Tak
ing
Rat
e (A
ges
16-1
7)G
ED
Tes
t T
akin
g R
ate
(Age
s 18
-19)
Post
199
7 du
mm
y-0
.000
20.
0007
-0.0
012
(0.0
007)
(0.0
006)
(0.0
011)
Scor
e op
tion
chan
ger s
tate
pos
t 199
7 (tr
eatm
ent e
ffect
)-0
.005
5-0
.003
4-0
.007
6(0
.001
6)(0
.001
5)(0
.002
1)Lo
cal u
nem
ploy
men
t rat
e0.
0020
0.00
190.
0021
(0.0
005)
(0.0
007)
(0.0
008)
Log
of p
er c
apita
inco
me
0.02
130.
0184
0.02
40(0
.006
1)(0
.006
4)(0
.008
4)O
bser
vatio
ns14
314
314
3N
umbe
r of S
tate
s24
2424
Not
e: H
uber
-Whi
te ro
bust
stan
dard
err
ors a
re in
par
enth
eses
(clu
ster
ed b
y st
ate)
. Mod
el is
estim
ated
usin
g O
LS. S
tate
15-
17 y
ear o
ld p
opul
atio
ns a
re
used
as w
eight
s. Th
e tre
atm
ent e
ffect
repo
rted
abov
e is
the
inte
ract
ion
betw
een
the
treat
men
t sta
te d
umm
y an
d th
e po
st 1
997
dum
my,
whe
re th
e tre
atm
ent s
tate
dum
my
is eq
ual t
o 1
for t
reat
men
t sta
tes a
nd th
e po
st 1
997
dum
my
is eq
ual t
o 1
for t
he y
ears
199
8-20
00, o
ther
wise
bot
h du
mm
ies
are
equa
l to
0. S
tate
s with
few
er th
an tw
o ob
serv
atio
ns p
er p
erio
d ar
e dr
oppe
d. T
reat
men
t sta
tes a
re th
ose
stat
es th
at w
ere
requ
ired
to e
limin
ate
the
and/
or sc
ore
optio
n. T
hese
inclu
de: L
A, M
S, N
E, N
M, T
X. C
ontro
l sta
tes a
re th
ose
that
alre
ady
had
high
eno
ugh
stan
dard
s by
1997
. The
se in
clude
: A
R, C
A, C
O, D
E, D
C, F
L, ID
, KY
, MD
, MO
, NY
, ND
, OK
, OR,
SD
, UT,
WA
, WV
, WI.
Con
trol s
tate
s dro
pped
due
to m
issin
g an
d ne
gativ
e dr
opou
t rat
es in
clude
: NJ.
No
treat
men
t sta
tes a
re d
ropp
ed.
45
Tab
leG
-2:
Fix
edE
ffec
tsE
stim
ates
ofth
eE
ffec
tof
the
Ref
orm
onG
ED
Tes
tT
akin
gR
ates
by
You
nge
rC
ohor
tsC
ontr
olling
for
Age
Req
uir
emen
ts
Ind
epen
den
t V
aria
ble
sG
ED
Tes
t T
akin
g R
ate
(Age
s 16
-19)
GE
D T
est
Tak
ing
Rat
e (A
ges
16-1
7)G
ED
Tes
t T
akin
g R
ate
(Age
s 18
-19)
Post
199
7 du
mm
y-0
.000
10.
0007
-0.0
011
(0.0
008)
(0.0
007)
(0.0
011)
Scor
e op
tion
chan
ger s
tate
pos
t 199
7 (tr
eatm
ent e
ffect
)-0
.005
7-0
.003
6-0
.007
7(0
.001
8)(0
.001
7)(0
.002
5)Lo
cal u
nem
ploy
men
t rat
e0.
0020
0.00
190.
0021
(0.0
006)
(0.0
007)
(0.0
009)
Log
of p
er c
apita
inco
me
0.02
140.
0185
0.02
41(0
.006
5)(0
.007
0)(0
.008
9)M
inim
um G
ED
age
requ
irem
ent i
s 16
0.00
090.
0007
0.00
13(d
umm
y fo
r min
imum
GE
D a
ge re
quire
men
t set
abo
ve 1
8 is
left o
ut)
(0.0
016)
(0.0
019)
(0.0
015)
Min
imum
GE
D a
ge re
quire
men
t is 1
7 -0
.001
-0.0
013
-0.0
005
(0.0
017)
(0.0
020)
(0.0
020)
Min
imum
GE
D a
ge re
quire
men
t is 1
8 -0
.000
20.
0001
-0.0
002
(0.0
014)
(0.0
015)
(0.0
013)
Min
imum
scho
ol le
avin
g ag
e is
16-0
.000
4-0
.000
70.
0001
(dum
my
for m
inim
um sc
hool
leav
ing
age
set a
bove
17
is lef
t out
)(0
.001
9)(0
.000
9)(0
.003
2)M
inim
um sc
hool
leav
ing
age
is 17
0.00
050.
0000
0.00
11(0
.001
7)(0
.001
2)(0
.003
6)O
bser
vatio
ns14
314
314
3N
umbe
r of S
tate
s24
2424
Not
e: H
uber
-Whi
te ro
bust
stan
dard
err
ors a
re in
par
enth
eses
(clu
ster
ed b
y st
ate)
. Mod
el is
estim
ated
usin
g O
LS. S
tate
15-
17 y
ear o
ld p
opul
atio
ns a
re
used
as w
eight
s. Th
e tre
atm
ent e
ffect
repo
rted
abov
e is
the
inte
ract
ion
betw
een
the
treat
men
t sta
te d
umm
y an
d th
e po
st 1
997
dum
my,
whe
re th
e tre
atm
ent s
tate
dum
my
is eq
ual t
o 1
for t
reat
men
t sta
tes a
nd th
e po
st 1
997
dum
my
is eq
ual t
o 1
for t
he y
ears
199
8-20
00, o
ther
wise
bot
h du
mm
ies
are
equa
l to
0. S
tate
s with
few
er th
an tw
o ob
serv
atio
ns p
er p
erio
d ar
e dr
oppe
d. T
reat
men
t sta
tes a
re th
ose
stat
es th
at w
ere
requ
ired
to e
limin
ate
the
and/
or sc
ore
optio
n. T
hese
inclu
de: L
A, M
S, N
E, N
M, T
X. C
ontro
l sta
tes a
re th
ose
that
alre
ady
had
high
eno
ugh
stan
dard
s by
1997
. The
se in
clude
: A
R, C
A, C
O, D
E, D
C, F
L, ID
, KY
, MD
, MO
, NY
, ND
, OK
, OR,
SD
, UT,
WA
, WV
, WI.
Con
trol s
tate
s dro
pped
due
to m
issin
g an
d ne
gativ
e dr
opou
t rat
es in
clude
: NJ.
No
treat
men
t sta
tes a
re d
ropp
ed.
46
Tab
leG
-3:
Fix
edE
ffec
tsE
stim
ates
ofth
eE
ffec
tof
the
Ref
orm
onD
rop
out
Rat
es(A
llR
aces
)
Ind
epen
den
t V
aria
ble
s10
th-1
2th
Gra
de
Dro
pou
t R
ate
10th
-11t
h G
rad
e D
rop
out
Rat
e12
th G
rad
e D
rop
out
Rat
e
Post
199
7 du
mm
y0.
0089
0.01
130.
003
(0.0
039)
(0.0
047)
(0.0
066)
Scor
e op
tion
chan
ger s
tate
pos
t 199
7 (tr
eatm
ent e
ffect
)-0
.012
1-0
.004
6-0
.028
6(0
.003
5)(0
.005
1)(0
.006
7)Lo
cal u
nem
ploy
men
t rat
e0.
0041
0.00
83-0
.007
8(0
.003
0)(0
.005
7)(0
.005
6)Lo
g of
per
cap
ita in
com
e-0
.028
5-0
.007
3-0
.099
4(0
.027
3)(0
.037
1)(0
.039
1)O
bser
vatio
ns14
414
414
2N
umbe
r of S
tate
s24
2424
Not
e: H
uber
-Whi
te ro
bust
stan
dard
err
ors a
re in
par
enth
eses
(clu
ster
ed b
y st
ate)
. Mod
el is
estim
ated
usin
g O
LS. S
tate
15-
17 y
ear o
ld p
opul
atio
ns a
re
used
as w
eight
s. Th
e tre
atm
ent e
ffect
repo
rted
abov
e is
the
inte
ract
ion
betw
een
the
treat
men
t sta
te d
umm
y an
d th
e po
st 1
997
dum
my,
whe
re th
e tre
atm
ent s
tate
dum
my
is eq
ual t
o 1
for t
reat
men
t sta
tes a
nd th
e po
st 1
997
dum
my
is eq
ual t
o 1
for t
he y
ears
199
8-20
00, o
ther
wise
bot
h du
mm
ies
are
equa
l to
0. S
tate
s with
few
er th
an tw
o ob
serv
atio
ns p
er p
erio
d ar
e dr
oppe
d. T
reat
men
t sta
tes a
re th
ose
stat
es th
at w
ere
requ
ired
to e
limin
ate
the
and/
or sc
ore
optio
n. T
hese
inclu
de: L
A, M
S, N
E, N
M, T
X. C
ontro
l sta
tes a
re th
ose
that
alre
ady
had
high
eno
ugh
stan
dard
s by
1997
. The
se in
clude
: A
R, C
A, C
O, D
E, D
C, F
L, ID
, KY
, MD
, MO
, NJ,
NY
, ND
, OK
, OR,
SD
, UT,
WA
, WV
, WI.
Con
trol s
tate
s dro
pped
due
to m
issin
g an
d ne
gativ
e dr
opou
t rat
es in
clude
: NJ.
No
treat
men
t sta
tes a
re d
ropp
ed.
47
Tab
leG
-4:
Fix
edE
ffec
tsE
stim
ates
ofth
eE
ffec
tof
the
Ref
orm
onD
rop
out
Rat
es(W
hit
es)
Ind
epen
den
t V
aria
ble
s10
th-1
2th
Gra
de
Dro
pou
t R
ate
10th
-11t
h G
rad
e D
rop
out
Rat
e12
th G
rad
e D
rop
out
Rat
e
Post
199
7 du
mm
y0.
0073
0.00
820.
0042
(0.0
031)
(0.0
054)
(0.0
064)
Scor
e op
tion
chan
ger s
tate
pos
t 199
7 (tr
eatm
ent e
ffect
)-0
.004
7-0
.000
2-0
.013
8(0
.001
5)(0
.004
3)(0
.008
2)Lo
cal u
nem
ploy
men
t rat
e0.
0037
0.00
61-0
.001
7(0
.001
5)(0
.004
0)(0
.005
0)Lo
g of
per
cap
ita in
com
e-0
.030
9-0
.014
9-0
.066
1(0
.019
1)(0
.029
1)(0
.024
7)O
bser
vatio
ns84
8382
Num
ber o
f Sta
tes
1414
14N
ote:
Hub
er-W
hite
robu
st st
anda
rd e
rror
s are
in p
aren
thes
es (c
lust
ered
by
stat
e). M
odel
is es
timat
ed u
sing
OLS
. Sta
te 1
5-17
yea
r old
pop
ulat
ions
are
us
ed a
s weig
hts.
The
treat
men
t effe
ct re
porte
d ab
ove
is th
e in
tera
ctio
n be
twee
n th
e tre
atm
ent s
tate
dum
my
and
the
post
199
7 du
mm
y, w
here
the
treat
men
t sta
te d
umm
y is
equa
l to
1 fo
r tre
atm
ent s
tate
s and
the
post
199
7 du
mm
y is
equa
l to
1 fo
r the
yea
rs 1
998-
2000
, oth
erw
ise b
oth
dum
mies
ar
e eq
ual t
o 0.
Sta
tes w
ith fe
wer
than
two
obse
rvat
ions
per
per
iod
for a
ny o
f the
dro
pout
rate
mea
sure
s by
race
are
dro
pped
. Tre
atm
ent s
tate
s are
th
ose
stat
es th
at w
ere
requ
ired
to e
limin
ate
the
and/
or sc
ore
optio
n. T
hese
inclu
de: L
A, M
S, N
E, N
M, T
X. C
ontro
l sta
tes a
re th
ose
that
alre
ady
had
high
eno
ugh
stan
dard
s by
1997
. The
se in
clude
: AR,
CA
, CO
, DE
, DC,
FL,
ID, K
Y, M
D, M
O, N
J, N
Y, N
D, O
K, O
R, S
D, U
T, W
A, W
V, W
I.
Cont
rol s
tate
s dro
pped
due
to m
issin
g an
d ne
gativ
e dr
opou
t rat
es in
clude
: AR,
ID, K
Y, M
O, N
D, N
J, N
Y, S
D, U
T, W
A, W
V. N
o tre
atm
ent s
tate
s ar
e dr
oppe
d.
48
Tab
leG
-5:
Fix
edE
ffec
tsE
stim
ates
ofth
eE
ffec
tof
the
Ref
orm
onD
rop
out
Rat
es(B
lack
s)
Ind
epen
den
t V
aria
ble
s10
th-1
2th
Gra
de
Dro
pou
t R
ate
10th
-11t
h G
rad
e D
rop
out
Rat
e12
th G
rad
e D
rop
out
Rat
e
Post
199
7 du
mm
y0.
0145
0.01
380.
0156
(0.0
098)
(0.0
141)
(0.0
251)
Scor
e op
tion
chan
ger s
tate
pos
t 199
7 (tr
eatm
ent e
ffect
)-0
.008
30.
0037
-0.0
402
(0.0
094)
(0.0
148)
(0.0
176)
Loca
l une
mpl
oym
ent r
ate
-0.0
032
-0.0
004
-0.0
109
(0.0
067)
(0.0
118)
(0.0
160)
Log
of p
er c
apita
inco
me
-0.1
364
-0.1
245
-0.1
584
(0.0
688)
(0.0
760)
(0.1
409)
Obs
erva
tions
8484
82N
umbe
r of S
tate
s14
1414
Not
e: H
uber
-Whi
te ro
bust
stan
dard
err
ors a
re in
par
enth
eses
(clu
ster
ed b
y st
ate)
. Mod
el is
estim
ated
usin
g O
LS. S
tate
15-
17 y
ear o
ld p
opul
atio
ns a
re
used
as w
eight
s. Th
e tre
atm
ent e
ffect
repo
rted
abov
e is
the
inte
ract
ion
betw
een
the
treat
men
t sta
te d
umm
y an
d th
e po
st 1
997
dum
my,
whe
re th
e tre
atm
ent s
tate
dum
my
is eq
ual t
o 1
for t
reat
men
t sta
tes a
nd th
e po
st 1
997
dum
my
is eq
ual t
o 1
for t
he y
ears
199
8-20
00, o
ther
wise
bot
h du
mm
ies
are
equa
l to
0. S
tate
s with
few
er th
an tw
o ob
serv
atio
ns p
er p
erio
d fo
r any
of t
he d
ropo
ut ra
te m
easu
res b
y ra
ce a
re d
ropp
ed. T
reat
men
t sta
tes a
re
thos
e st
ates
that
wer
e re
quire
d to
elim
inat
e th
e an
d/or
scor
e op
tion.
The
se in
clude
: LA
, MS,
NE
, NM
, TX
. Con
trol s
tate
s are
thos
e th
at a
lread
y ha
d hi
gh e
noug
h st
anda
rds b
y 19
97. T
hese
inclu
de: A
R, C
A, C
O, D
E, D
C, F
L, ID
, KY
, MD
, MO
, NJ,
NY
, ND
, OK
, OR,
SD
, UT,
WA
, WV
, WI.
Co
ntro
l sta
tes d
ropp
ed d
ue to
miss
ing
and
nega
tive
drop
out r
ates
inclu
de: A
R, ID
, KY
, MO
, ND
, NJ,
NY
, SD
, UT,
WA
, WV
. No
treat
men
t sta
tes
are
drop
ped.
49
Tab
leG
-6:
Fix
edE
ffec
tsE
stim
ates
ofth
eE
ffec
tof
the
Ref
orm
onD
rop
out
Rat
es(H
ispan
ics)
Ind
epen
den
t V
aria
ble
s10
th-1
2th
Gra
de
Dro
pou
t R
ate
10th
-11t
h G
rad
e D
rop
out
Rat
e12
th G
rad
e D
rop
out
Rat
e
Post
199
7 du
mm
y0.
0136
0.00
970.
0233
(0.0
062)
(0.0
064)
(0.0
074)
Scor
e op
tion
chan
ger s
tate
pos
t 199
7 (tr
eatm
ent e
ffect
)-0
.026
8-0
.013
8-0
.059
9(0
.004
3)(0
.006
0)(0
.003
0)Lo
cal u
nem
ploy
men
t rat
e0.
0120
0.02
02(0
.011
4)(0
.004
6)(0
.006
9)(0
.006
3)Lo
g of
per
cap
ita in
com
e-0
.004
90.
0674
-0.2
041
(0.0
562)
(0.0
677)
(0.0
611)
Obs
erva
tions
8483
82N
umbe
r of S
tate
s14
1414
Not
e: H
uber
-Whi
te ro
bust
stan
dard
err
ors a
re in
par
enth
eses
(clu
ster
ed b
y st
ate)
. Mod
el is
estim
ated
usin
g O
LS. S
tate
15-
17 y
ear o
ld p
opul
atio
ns a
re
used
as w
eight
s. Th
e tre
atm
ent e
ffect
repo
rted
abov
e is
the
inte
ract
ion
betw
een
the
treat
men
t sta
te d
umm
y an
d th
e po
st 1
997
dum
my,
whe
re th
e tre
atm
ent s
tate
dum
my
is eq
ual t
o 1
for t
reat
men
t sta
tes a
nd th
e po
st 1
997
dum
my
is eq
ual t
o 1
for t
he y
ears
199
8-20
00, o
ther
wise
bot
h du
mm
ies
are
equa
l to
0. S
tate
s with
few
er th
an tw
o ob
serv
atio
ns p
er p
erio
d fo
r any
of t
he d
ropo
ut ra
te m
easu
res b
y ra
ce a
re d
ropp
ed. T
reat
men
t sta
tes a
re
thos
e st
ates
that
wer
e re
quire
d to
elim
inat
e th
e an
d/or
scor
e op
tion.
The
se in
clude
: LA
, MS,
NE
, NM
, TX
. Con
trol s
tate
s are
thos
e th
at a
lread
y ha
d hi
gh e
noug
h st
anda
rds b
y 19
97. T
hese
inclu
de: A
R, C
A, C
O, D
E, D
C, F
L, ID
, KY
, MD
, MO
, NJ,
NY
, ND
, OK
, OR,
SD
, UT,
WA
, WV
, WI.
Cont
rol s
tate
s dro
pped
due
to m
issin
g an
d ne
gativ
e dr
opou
t rat
es in
clude
: AR,
ID, K
Y, M
O, N
D, N
J, N
Y, S
D, U
T, W
A, W
V. N
o tre
atm
ent s
tate
s ar
e dr
oppe
d.
50
Tab
leG
-7:
Fix
edE
ffec
tsE
stim
ates
ofth
eE
ffec
tof
the
Ref
orm
onD
rop
out
Rat
esC
ontr
olling
for
Age
Req
uir
emen
ts(A
llR
aces
)
Ind
epen
den
t V
aria
ble
s10
th-1
2th
Gra
de
Dro
pou
t R
ate
10th
-11t
h G
rad
e D
rop
out
Rat
e12
th G
rad
e D
rop
out
Rat
e
Post
199
7 du
mm
y0.
0093
0.01
250.
0023
(0.0
040)
(0.0
050)
(0.0
066)
Scor
e op
tion
chan
ger s
tate
pos
t 199
7 (tr
eatm
ent e
ffect
)-0
.012
9-0
.005
5-0
.029
5(0
.003
7)(0
.005
4)(0
.006
5)Lo
cal u
nem
ploy
men
t rat
e0.
0043
0.00
90-0
.008
4(0
.003
1)(0
.006
0)(0
.005
7)Lo
g of
per
cap
ita in
com
e-0
.027
6-0
.003
7-0
.101
8(0
.028
5)(0
.039
2)(0
.039
2)M
inim
um G
ED
age
requ
irem
ent i
s 16
0.00
470.
0145
-0.0
092
(dum
my
for m
inim
um G
ED
age
requ
irem
ent s
et a
bove
18
is lef
t out
)(0
.004
3)(0
.003
7)(0
.005
7)M
inim
um G
ED
age
requ
irem
ent i
s 17
0.00
650.
0155
-0.0
101
(0.0
054)
(0.0
053)
(0.0
117)
Min
imum
GE
D a
ge re
quire
men
t is 1
8 0.
0035
0.01
14-0
.008
6(0
.003
8)(0
.002
3)(0
.004
8)M
inim
um sc
hool
leav
ing
age
is 16
0.00
70.
0073
0.00
39(d
umm
y fo
r min
imum
scho
ol le
avin
g ag
e se
t abo
ve 1
7 is
left o
ut)
(0.0
058)
(0.0
071)
(0.0
060)
Min
imum
scho
ol le
avin
g ag
e is
170.
0187
0.01
520.
0187
(0.0
091)
(0.0
099)
(0.0
139)
Obs
erva
tions
144
144
142
Num
ber o
f Sta
tes
2424
24N
ote:
Hub
er-W
hite
robu
st st
anda
rd e
rror
s are
in p
aren
thes
es (c
lust
ered
by
stat
e). M
odel
is es
timat
ed u
sing
OLS
. Sta
te 1
5-17
yea
r old
pop
ulat
ions
are
us
ed a
s weig
hts.
The
treat
men
t effe
ct re
porte
d ab
ove
is th
e in
tera
ctio
n be
twee
n th
e tre
atm
ent s
tate
dum
my
and
the
post
199
7 du
mm
y, w
here
the
treat
men
t sta
te d
umm
y is
equa
l to
1 fo
r tre
atm
ent s
tate
s and
the
post
199
7 du
mm
y is
equa
l to
1 fo
r the
yea
rs 1
998-
2000
, oth
erw
ise b
oth
dum
mies
ar
e eq
ual t
o 0.
Sta
tes w
ith fe
wer
than
two
obse
rvat
ions
per
per
iod
are
drop
ped.
Tre
atm
ent s
tate
s are
thos
e st
ates
that
wer
e re
quire
d to
elim
inat
e th
e an
d/or
scor
e op
tion.
The
se in
clude
: LA
, MS,
NE
, NM
, TX
. Con
trol s
tate
s are
thos
e th
at a
lread
y ha
d hi
gh e
noug
h st
anda
rds b
y 19
97. T
hese
inclu
de:
AR,
CA
, CO
, DE
, DC,
FL,
ID, K
Y, M
D, M
O, N
Y, N
D, O
K, O
R, S
D, U
T, W
A, W
V, W
I. C
ontro
l sta
tes d
ropp
ed d
ue to
miss
ing
and
nega
tive
drop
out r
ates
inclu
de: N
J. N
o tre
atm
ent s
tate
s are
dro
pped
.
51
Tab
leG
-8:
Fix
edE
ffec
tsE
stim
ates
ofth
eE
ffec
tof
the
Ref
orm
onD
rop
out
Rat
esC
ontr
olling
for
Age
Req
uir
emen
ts(W
hit
es)
Ind
epen
den
t V
aria
ble
s10
th-1
2th
Gra
de
Dro
pou
t R
ate
10th
-11t
h G
rad
e D
rop
out
Rat
e12
th G
rad
e D
rop
out
Rat
e
Post
199
7 du
mm
y0.
0076
0.00
870.
0042
(0.0
033)
(0.0
056)
(0.0
066)
Scor
e op
tion
chan
ger s
tate
pos
t 199
7 (tr
eatm
ent e
ffect
)-0
.004
30.
0000
-0.0
132
(0.0
015)
(0.0
045)
(0.0
088)
Loca
l une
mpl
oym
ent r
ate
0.00
370.
0065
-0.0
026
(0.0
016)
(0.0
044)
(0.0
054)
Log
of p
er c
apita
inco
me
-0.0
320
-0.0
132
-0.0
741
(0.0
200)
(0.0
313)
(0.0
275)
Min
imum
GE
D a
ge re
quire
men
t is 1
6 0.
0014
0.00
59-0
.008
1(d
umm
y fo
r min
imum
GE
D a
ge re
quire
men
t set
abo
ve 1
8 is
left o
ut)
(0.0
031)
(0.0
053)
(0.0
040)
Min
imum
GE
D a
ge re
quire
men
t is 1
7 0.
0019
0.00
92-0
.016
8(0
.005
9)(0
.006
0)(0
.018
8)M
inim
um G
ED
age
requ
irem
ent i
s 18
0.00
230.
0051
-0.0
04(0
.000
6)(0
.001
1)(0
.001
6)M
inim
um sc
hool
leav
ing
age
is 16
0.01
350.
0126
0.01
15(d
umm
y fo
r min
imum
scho
ol le
avin
g ag
e se
t abo
ve 1
7 is
left o
ut)
(0.0
044)
(0.0
037)
(0.0
061)
Min
imum
scho
ol le
avin
g ag
e is
170.
0148
0.01
76-0
.001
(0.0
092)
(0.0
054)
(0.0
213)
Obs
erva
tions
8483
82N
umbe
r of S
tate
s14
1414
Not
e: H
uber
-Whi
te ro
bust
stan
dard
err
ors a
re in
par
enth
eses
(clu
ster
ed b
y st
ate)
. Mod
el is
estim
ated
usin
g O
LS. S
tate
15-
17 y
ear o
ld p
opul
atio
ns a
re
used
as w
eight
s. Th
e tre
atm
ent e
ffect
repo
rted
abov
e is
the
inte
ract
ion
betw
een
the
treat
men
t sta
te d
umm
y an
d th
e po
st 1
997
dum
my,
whe
re th
e tre
atm
ent s
tate
dum
my
is eq
ual t
o 1
for t
reat
men
t sta
tes a
nd th
e po
st 1
997
dum
my
is eq
ual t
o 1
for t
he y
ears
199
8-20
00, o
ther
wise
bot
h du
mm
ies
are
equa
l to
0. S
tate
s with
few
er th
an tw
o ob
serv
atio
ns p
er p
erio
d fo
r any
of t
he d
ropo
ut ra
te m
easu
res b
y ra
ce a
re d
ropp
ed. T
reat
men
t sta
tes a
re
thos
e st
ates
that
wer
e re
quire
d to
elim
inat
e th
e an
d/or
scor
e op
tion.
The
se in
clude
: LA
, MS,
NE
, NM
, TX
. Con
trol s
tate
s are
thos
e th
at a
lread
y ha
d hi
gh e
noug
h st
anda
rds b
y 19
97. T
hese
inclu
de: C
A, C
O, D
E, D
C, F
L, M
D,
OK
, OR,
WI.
Con
trol s
tate
s dro
pped
due
to m
issin
g an
d ne
gativ
e dr
opou
t rat
es in
clude
: AR,
ID, K
Y, M
O, N
D, N
J, N
Y, S
D, U
T, W
A, W
V. N
o tre
atm
ent s
tate
s are
dro
pped
.
52
Tab
leG
-9:
Fix
edE
ffec
tsE
stim
ates
ofth
eE
ffec
tof
the
Ref
orm
onD
rop
out
Rat
esC
ontr
olling
for
Age
Req
uir
emen
ts(B
lack
s
Ind
epen
den
t V
aria
ble
s10
th-1
2th
Gra
de
Dro
pou
t R
ate
10th
-11t
h G
rad
e D
rop
out
Rat
e12
th G
rad
e D
rop
out
Rat
e
Post
199
7 du
mm
y0.
0179
0.01
850.
0143
(0.0
101)
(0.0
145)
(0.0
258)
Scor
e op
tion
chan
ger s
tate
pos
t 199
7 (tr
eatm
ent e
ffect
)-0
.012
90.
0009
-0.0
484
(0.0
098)
(0.0
161)
(0.0
182)
Loca
l une
mpl
oym
ent r
ate
-0.0
026
0.00
08-0
.012
1(0
.006
7)(0
.012
5)(0
.016
7)Lo
g of
per
cap
ita in
com
e-0
.136
2-0
.123
9-0
.158
9(0
.065
2)(0
.073
3)(0
.140
5)M
inim
um G
ED
age
requ
irem
ent i
s 16
0.06
300.
0697
0.04
10(d
umm
y fo
r min
imum
GE
D a
ge re
quire
men
t set
abo
ve 1
8 is
left o
ut)
(0.0
080)
(0.0
138)
(0.0
156)
Min
imum
GE
D a
ge re
quire
men
t is 1
7 0.
0296
0.03
8-0
.025
7(0
.014
6)(0
.013
9)(0
.020
9)M
inim
um G
ED
age
requ
irem
ent i
s 18
0.05
190.
055
0.04
17(0
.003
8)(0
.005
1)(0
.008
8)M
inim
um sc
hool
leav
ing
age
is 16
0.05
650.
0666
0.03
01(d
umm
y fo
r min
imum
scho
ol le
avin
g ag
e se
t abo
ve 1
7 is
left o
ut)
(0.0
139)
(0.0
149)
(0.0
122)
Min
imum
scho
ol le
avin
g ag
e is
170.
0413
0.04
63-0
.003
(0.0
090)
(0.0
154)
(0.0
148)
Obs
erva
tions
8484
82N
umbe
r of S
tate
s14
1414
Not
e: H
uber
-Whi
te ro
bust
stan
dard
err
ors a
re in
par
enth
eses
(clu
ster
ed b
y st
ate)
. Mod
el is
estim
ated
usin
g O
LS. S
tate
15-
17 y
ear o
ld p
opul
atio
ns a
re
used
as w
eight
s. Th
e tre
atm
ent e
ffect
repo
rted
abov
e is
the
inte
ract
ion
betw
een
the
treat
men
t sta
te d
umm
y an
d th
e po
st 1
997
dum
my,
whe
re th
e tre
atm
ent s
tate
dum
my
is eq
ual t
o 1
for t
reat
men
t sta
tes a
nd th
e po
st 1
997
dum
my
is eq
ual t
o 1
for t
he y
ears
199
8-20
00, o
ther
wise
bot
h du
mm
ies
are
equa
l to
0. S
tate
s with
few
er th
an tw
o ob
serv
atio
ns p
er p
erio
d fo
r any
of t
he d
ropo
ut ra
te m
easu
res b
y ra
ce a
re d
ropp
ed. T
reat
men
t sta
tes a
re
thos
e st
ates
that
wer
e re
quire
d to
elim
inat
e th
e an
d/or
scor
e op
tion.
The
se in
clude
: LA
, MS,
NE
, NM
, TX
. Con
trol s
tate
s are
thos
e th
at a
lread
y ha
d hi
gh e
noug
h st
anda
rds b
y 19
97. T
hese
inclu
de: C
A, C
O, D
E, D
C, F
L, M
D,
OK
, OR,
WI.
Con
trol s
tate
s dro
pped
due
to m
issin
g an
d ne
gativ
e dr
opou
t rat
es in
clude
: AR,
ID, K
Y, M
O, N
D, N
J, N
Y, S
D, U
T, W
A, W
V. N
o tre
atm
ent s
tate
s are
dro
pped
.
53
Tab
leG
-10:
Fix
edE
ffec
tsE
stim
ates
ofth
eE
ffec
tof
the
Ref
orm
onD
rop
out
Rat
esC
ontr
olling
for
Age
Req
uir
emen
ts(H
ispan
ics)
Ind
epen
den
t V
aria
ble
s10
th-1
2th
Gra
de
Dro
pou
t R
ate
10th
-11t
h G
rad
e D
rop
out
Rat
e12
th G
rad
e D
rop
out
Rat
e
Post
199
7 du
mm
y0.
0141
0.01
070.
0224
(0.0
067)
(0.0
068)
(0.0
079)
Scor
e op
tion
chan
ger s
tate
pos
t 199
7 (tr
eatm
ent e
ffect
)-0
.027
4-0
.013
8-0
.061
6(0
.004
0)(0
.005
0)(0
.004
6)Lo
cal u
nem
ploy
men
t rat
e0.
0122
0.02
04-0
.011
0(0
.004
5)(0
.007
1)(0
.007
0)Lo
g of
per
cap
ita in
com
e-0
.003
30.
0664
-0.1
958
(0.0
582)
(0.0
690)
(0.0
714)
Min
imum
GE
D a
ge re
quire
men
t is 1
6 0.
0265
0.03
270.
0088
(dum
my
for m
inim
um G
ED
age
requ
irem
ent s
et a
bove
18
is lef
t out
)(0
.015
0)(0
.021
8)(0
.008
9)M
inim
um G
ED
age
requ
irem
ent i
s 17
0.03
010.
0414
0.00
16(0
.011
4)(0
.017
4)(0
.010
4)M
inim
um G
ED
age
requ
irem
ent i
s 18
0.04
150.
0521
0.01
31(0
.003
5)(0
.005
1)(0
.004
7)M
inim
um sc
hool
leav
ing
age
is 16
-0.0
051
-0.0
001
-0.0
166
(dum
my
for m
inim
um sc
hool
leav
ing
age
set a
bove
17
is lef
t out
)(0
.007
6)(0
.010
5)(0
.006
4)M
inim
um sc
hool
leav
ing
age
is 17
0.09
120.
113
-0.0
194
(0.0
186)
(0.0
281)
(0.0
216)
Obs
erva
tions
8483
82N
umbe
r of S
tate
s14
1414
Not
e: H
uber
-Whi
te ro
bust
stan
dard
err
ors a
re in
par
enth
eses
(clu
ster
ed b
y st
ate)
. Mod
el is
estim
ated
usin
g O
LS. S
tate
15-
17 y
ear o
ld p
opul
atio
ns a
re
used
as w
eight
s. Th
e tre
atm
ent e
ffect
repo
rted
abov
e is
the
inte
ract
ion
betw
een
the
treat
men
t sta
te d
umm
y an
d th
e po
st 1
997
dum
my,
whe
re th
e tre
atm
ent s
tate
dum
my
is eq
ual t
o 1
for t
reat
men
t sta
tes a
nd th
e po
st 1
997
dum
my
is eq
ual t
o 1
for t
he y
ears
199
8-20
00, o
ther
wise
bot
h du
mm
ies
are
equa
l to
0. S
tate
s with
few
er th
an tw
o ob
serv
atio
ns p
er p
erio
d fo
r any
of t
he d
ropo
ut ra
te m
easu
res b
y ra
ce a
re d
ropp
ed. T
reat
men
t sta
tes a
re
thos
e st
ates
that
wer
e re
quire
d to
elim
inat
e th
e an
d/or
scor
e op
tion.
The
se in
clude
: LA
, MS,
NE
, NM
, TX
. Con
trol s
tate
s are
thos
e th
at a
lread
y ha
d hi
gh e
noug
h st
anda
rds b
y 19
97. T
hese
inclu
de: C
A, C
O, D
E, D
C, F
L, M
D,
OK
, OR,
WI.
Con
trol s
tate
s dro
pped
due
to m
issin
g an
d ne
gativ
e dr
opou
t rat
es in
clude
: AR,
ID, K
Y, M
O, N
D, N
J, N
Y, S
D, U
T, W
A, W
V. N
o tre
atm
ent s
tate
s are
dro
pped
.
54
Tab
leG
-11:
Fix
edE
ffec
tsE
stim
ates
ofth
eE
ffec
tof
the
Ref
orm
onD
rop
out
Rat
esw
ith
Min
imum
Sco
reC
han
ger
Sta
tes
asC
ontr
olG
roup
(All
Rac
es)
Ind
epen
den
t V
aria
ble
s10
th-1
2th
Gra
de
Dro
pou
t R
ate
10th
-11t
h G
rad
e D
rop
out
Rat
e12
th G
rad
e D
rop
out
Rat
e
Post
199
7 du
mm
y0.
0182
0.01
460.
0274
(0.0
071)
(0.0
064)
(0.0
161)
Scor
e op
tion
chan
ger s
tate
pos
t 199
7 (tr
eatm
ent e
ffect
)-0
.015
3-0
.002
3-0
.048
3(0
.004
4)(0
.003
5)(0
.011
4)Lo
cal u
nem
ploy
men
t rat
e0.
0069
0.00
060.
0193
(0.0
036)
(0.0
042)
(0.0
073)
Log
of p
er c
apita
inco
me
-0.0
420
-0.0
897
0.06
40(0
.035
5)(0
.054
0)(0
.058
6)M
inim
um G
ED
age
requ
irem
ent i
s 16
0.00
07-0
.001
00.
0034
(dum
my
for m
inim
um G
ED
age
requ
irem
ent s
et a
bove
18
is lef
t out
)(0
.002
7)(0
.004
2)(0
.007
6)M
inim
um G
ED
age
requ
irem
ent i
s 17
0.00
460.
0037
0.00
31(0
.007
7)(0
.008
6)(0
.023
6)M
inim
um G
ED
age
requ
irem
ent i
s 18
0.00
450.
0088
-0.0
103
(0.0
076)
(0.0
087)
(0.0
099)
Min
imum
scho
ol le
avin
g ag
e is
160.
0031
-0.0
016
0.01
7(d
umm
y fo
r min
imum
scho
ol le
avin
g ag
e se
t abo
ve 1
7 is
left o
ut)
(0.0
036)
(0.0
026)
(0.0
083)
Min
imum
scho
ol le
avin
g ag
e is
170.
0101
-0.0
002
0.03
79(0
.005
2)(0
.005
1)(0
.023
7)O
bser
vatio
ns18
618
618
4N
umbe
r of S
tate
s31
3131
Not
e: H
uber
-Whi
te ro
bust
stan
dard
err
ors a
re in
par
enth
eses
(clu
ster
ed b
y st
ate)
. Mod
el is
estim
ated
usin
g O
LS. S
tate
15-
17 y
ear o
ld p
opul
atio
ns a
re
used
as w
eight
s. Th
e tre
atm
ent e
ffect
repo
rted
abov
e is
the
inte
ract
ion
betw
een
the
treat
men
t sta
te d
umm
y an
d th
e po
st 1
997
dum
my,
whe
re th
e tre
atm
ent s
tate
dum
my
is eq
ual t
o 1
for t
reat
men
t sta
tes a
nd th
e po
st 1
997
dum
my
is eq
ual t
o 1
for t
he y
ears
199
8-20
00, o
ther
wise
bot
h du
mm
ies
are
equa
l to
0. S
tate
s with
few
er th
an tw
o ob
serv
atio
ns p
er p
erio
d ar
e dr
oppe
d. T
reat
men
t sta
tes a
re th
ose
stat
es th
at w
ere
requ
ired
to e
limin
ate
the
and/
or sc
ore
optio
n. T
hese
inclu
de: L
A, M
S, N
E, N
M, T
X. C
ontro
l sta
tes a
re th
ose
that
wer
e re
quire
d to
raise
their
min
imum
scor
e re
quire
men
t fr
om 3
5 to
40
in 1
997.
The
se in
clude
: AK
, AL,
AZ
, CT,
GA
, HI,
IA, I
L, IN
, KS,
MA
, ME
, MI,
MN
, MT,
NC,
NH
, NV
, OH
, PA
, RI,
SC, T
N, V
A,
VT,
WY
. No
stat
es h
ad b
e dr
oppe
d as
a re
sult
of m
issin
g or
neg
ativ
e dr
opou
t rat
es.
55
Tab
leG
-12:
Fix
edE
ffec
tsE
stim
ates
ofth
eE
ffec
tof
the
Ref
orm
onD
rop
out
Rat
esw
ith
Min
imum
Sco
reC
han
ger
Sta
tes
asC
ontr
olG
roup
(Whit
es)
Ind
epen
den
t V
aria
ble
s10
th-1
2th
Gra
de
Dro
pou
t R
ate
10th
-11t
h G
rad
e D
rop
out
Rat
e12
th G
rad
e D
rop
out
Rat
e
Post
199
7 du
mm
y0.
0071
0.00
150.
001
(0.0
099)
(0.0
044)
(0.0
193)
Scor
e op
tion
chan
ger s
tate
pos
t 199
7 (tr
eatm
ent e
ffect
)-0
.010
8-0
.003
9-0
.021
1(0
.004
0)(0
.003
4)(0
.011
5)Lo
cal u
nem
ploy
men
t rat
e-0
.002
3-0
.004
80.
0024
(0.0
040)
(0.0
040)
(0.0
090)
Log
of p
er c
apita
inco
me
-0.0
403
-0.0
386
0.01
32(0
.027
8)(0
.025
3)(0
.044
8)M
inim
um G
ED
age
requ
irem
ent i
s 16
-0.0
061
-0.0
009
-0.0
174
(dum
my
for m
inim
um G
ED
age
requ
irem
ent s
et a
bove
18
is lef
t out
)(0
.004
3)(0
.003
4)(0
.009
4)M
inim
um G
ED
age
requ
irem
ent i
s 17
-0.0
084
-0.0
066
-0.0
089
(0.0
080)
(0.0
049)
(0.0
228)
Min
imum
GE
D a
ge re
quire
men
t is 1
8 -0
.007
6-0
.002
4-0
.015
4(0
.005
5)(0
.004
6)(0
.011
1)M
inim
um sc
hool
leav
ing
age
is 16
0.00
450.
0037
0.00
02(d
umm
y fo
r min
imum
scho
ol le
avin
g ag
e se
t abo
ve 1
7 is
left o
ut)
(0.0
048)
(0.0
033)
(0.0
106)
Min
imum
scho
ol le
avin
g ag
e is
170.
0059
0.00
350.
0078
(0.0
069)
(0.0
037)
(0.0
229)
Obs
erva
tions
117
116
118
Num
ber o
f Sta
tes
2020
20N
ote:
Hub
er-W
hite
robu
st st
anda
rd e
rror
s are
in p
aren
thes
es (c
lust
ered
by
stat
e). M
odel
is es
timat
ed u
sing
OLS
. Sta
te 1
5-17
yea
r old
pop
ulat
ions
are
us
ed a
s weig
hts.
The
treat
men
t effe
ct re
porte
d ab
ove
is th
e in
tera
ctio
n be
twee
n th
e tre
atm
ent s
tate
dum
my
and
the
post
199
7 du
mm
y, w
here
the
treat
men
t sta
te d
umm
y is
equa
l to
1 fo
r tre
atm
ent s
tate
s and
the
post
199
7 du
mm
y is
equa
l to
1 fo
r the
yea
rs 1
998-
2000
, oth
erw
ise b
oth
dum
mies
ar
e eq
ual t
o 0.
Sta
tes w
ith fe
wer
than
two
obse
rvat
ions
per
per
iod
for a
ny o
f the
dro
pout
rate
mea
sure
s by
race
are
dro
pped
. Tre
atm
ent s
tate
s are
th
ose
stat
es th
at w
ere
requ
ired
to e
limin
ate
the
and/
or sc
ore
optio
n. T
hese
inclu
de: L
A, M
S, N
E, N
M, T
X. C
ontro
l sta
tes a
re th
ose
that
wer
e re
quire
d to
raise
their
min
imum
scor
e re
quire
men
t fro
m 3
5 to
40
in 1
997.
The
se in
clude
: AK
, AL,
AZ
, CT,
GA
, HI,
IA, I
L, IN
, KS,
MA
, ME
, MI,
MN
, MT,
NC,
NH
, NV
, OH
, PA
, RI,
SC, T
N, V
A, V
T, W
Y. C
ontro
l sta
tes d
ropp
ed d
ue to
miss
ing
and
nega
tive
drop
out r
ates
inclu
de:A
L, A
Z, I
A,
ME
, MN
, MT,
NH
, SC,
TN
, VT,
WY
. No
treat
men
t sta
tes w
ere
drop
ped.
56
Tab
leG
-13:
Fix
edE
ffec
tsE
stim
ates
ofth
eE
ffec
tof
the
Ref
orm
onD
rop
out
Rat
esw
ith
Min
imum
Sco
reC
han
ger
Sta
tes
asC
ontr
olG
roup
(Bla
cks)
Ind
epen
den
t V
aria
ble
s10
th-1
2th
Gra
de
Dro
pou
t R
ate
10th
-11t
h G
rad
e D
rop
out
Rat
e12
th G
rad
e D
rop
out
Rat
e
Post
199
7 du
mm
y0.
0274
0.00
630.
0414
(0.0
193)
(0.0
098)
(0.0
587)
Scor
e op
tion
chan
ger s
tate
pos
t 199
7 (tr
eatm
ent e
ffect
)-0
.019
0.00
25-0
.061
(0.0
101)
(0.0
143)
(0.0
472)
Loca
l une
mpl
oym
ent r
ate
-0.0
047
-0.0
190
0.03
39(0
.007
8)(0
.017
0)(0
.031
7)Lo
g of
per
cap
ita in
com
e-0
.171
9-0
.234
90.
1443
(0.1
152)
(0.1
908)
(0.2
572)
Min
imum
GE
D a
ge re
quire
men
t is 1
6 -0
.027
10.
0037
-0.1
088
(dum
my
for m
inim
um G
ED
age
requ
irem
ent s
et a
bove
18
is lef
t out
)(0
.009
4)(0
.016
3)(0
.048
5)M
inim
um G
ED
age
requ
irem
ent i
s 17
-0.0
415
-0.0
04-0
.138
2(0
.014
8)(0
.021
0)(0
.074
3)M
inim
um G
ED
age
requ
irem
ent i
s 18
-0.0
357
0.00
08-0
.123
6(0
.012
4)(0
.021
7)(0
.063
1)M
inim
um sc
hool
leav
ing
age
is 16
0.01
95-0
.006
10.
0753
(dum
my
for m
inim
um sc
hool
leav
ing
age
set a
bove
17
is lef
t out
)(0
.009
7)(0
.015
1)(0
.045
0)M
inim
um sc
hool
leav
ing
age
is 17
0.02
16-0
.001
60.
0708
(0.0
136)
(0.0
200)
(0.0
693)
Obs
erva
tions
118
117
112
Num
ber o
f Sta
tes
2020
20N
ote:
Hub
er-W
hite
robu
st st
anda
rd e
rror
s are
in p
aren
thes
es (c
lust
ered
by
stat
e). M
odel
is es
timat
ed u
sing
OLS
. Sta
te 1
5-17
yea
r old
pop
ulat
ions
are
us
ed a
s weig
hts.
The
treat
men
t effe
ct re
porte
d ab
ove
is th
e in
tera
ctio
n be
twee
n th
e tre
atm
ent s
tate
dum
my
and
the
post
199
7 du
mm
y, w
here
the
treat
men
t sta
te d
umm
y is
equa
l to
1 fo
r tre
atm
ent s
tate
s and
the
post
199
7 du
mm
y is
equa
l to
1 fo
r the
yea
rs 1
998-
2000
, oth
erw
ise b
oth
dum
mies
ar
e eq
ual t
o 0.
Sta
tes w
ith fe
wer
than
two
obse
rvat
ions
per
per
iod
for a
ny o
f the
dro
pout
rate
mea
sure
s by
race
are
dro
pped
. Tre
atm
ent s
tate
s are
th
ose
stat
es th
at w
ere
requ
ired
to e
limin
ate
the
and/
or sc
ore
optio
n. T
hese
inclu
de: L
A, M
S, N
E, N
M, T
X. C
ontro
l sta
tes a
re th
ose
that
wer
e re
quire
d to
raise
their
min
imum
scor
e re
quire
men
t fro
m 3
5 to
40
in 1
997.
The
se in
clude
: AK
, AL,
AZ
, CT,
GA
, HI,
IA, I
L, IN
, KS,
MA
, ME
, MI,
MN
, MT,
NC,
NH
, NV
, OH
, PA
, RI,
SC, T
N, V
A, V
T, W
Y. C
ontro
l sta
tes d
ropp
ed d
ue to
miss
ing
and
nega
tive
drop
out r
ates
inclu
de:A
L, A
Z, I
A,
ME
, MN
, MT,
NH
, SC,
TN
, VT,
WY
. No
treat
men
t sta
tes w
ere
drop
ped.
57
Tab
leG
-14:
Fix
edE
ffec
tsE
stim
ates
ofth
eE
ffec
tof
the
Ref
orm
onD
rop
out
Rat
esw
ith
Min
imum
Sco
reC
han
ger
Sta
tes
asC
ontr
olG
roup
(His
pan
ics)
Ind
epen
den
t V
aria
ble
s10
th-1
2th
Gra
de
Dro
pou
t R
ate
10th
-11t
h G
rad
e D
rop
out
Rat
e12
th G
rad
e D
rop
out
Rat
e
Post
199
7 du
mm
y0.
0356
0.02
820.
0426
(0.0
081)
(0.0
102)
(0.0
162)
Scor
e op
tion
chan
ger s
tate
pos
t 199
7 (tr
eatm
ent e
ffect
)-0
.026
7-0
.010
9-0
.066
6(0
.010
5)(0
.015
5)(0
.013
8)Lo
cal u
nem
ploy
men
t rat
e0.
0251
0.01
140.
0511
(0.0
106)
(0.0
148)
(0.0
178)
Log
of p
er c
apita
inco
me
-0.0
177
-0.0
866
0.14
86(0
.091
5)(0
.130
9)(0
.135
4)M
inim
um G
ED
age
requ
irem
ent i
s 16
0.02
15-0
.022
70.
1092
(dum
my
for m
inim
um G
ED
age
requ
irem
ent s
et a
bove
18
is lef
t out
)(0
.036
3)(0
.015
6)(0
.087
9)M
inim
um G
ED
age
requ
irem
ent i
s 17
0.01
29-0
.032
40.
1062
(0.0
348)
(0.0
186)
(0.0
826)
Min
imum
GE
D a
ge re
quire
men
t is 1
8 0.
0062
-0.0
227
0.06
81(0
.031
1)(0
.015
7)(0
.074
1)M
inim
um sc
hool
leav
ing
age
is 16
0.00
950.
0078
0.00
38(d
umm
y fo
r min
imum
scho
ol le
avin
g ag
e se
t abo
ve 1
7 is
left o
ut)
(0.0
095)
(0.0
156)
(0.0
128)
Min
imum
scho
ol le
avin
g ag
e is
170.
1285
0.15
02-0
.009
(0.0
162)
(0.0
221)
(0.0
183)
Obs
erva
tions
118
116
115
Num
ber o
f Sta
tes
2020
20N
ote:
Hub
er-W
hite
robu
st st
anda
rd e
rror
s are
in p
aren
thes
es (c
lust
ered
by
stat
e). M
odel
is es
timat
ed u
sing
OLS
. Sta
te 1
5-17
yea
r old
pop
ulat
ions
are
us
ed a
s weig
hts.
The
treat
men
t effe
ct re
porte
d ab
ove
is th
e in
tera
ctio
n be
twee
n th
e tre
atm
ent s
tate
dum
my
and
the
post
199
7 du
mm
y, w
here
the
treat
men
t sta
te d
umm
y is
equa
l to
1 fo
r tre
atm
ent s
tate
s and
the
post
199
7 du
mm
y is
equa
l to
1 fo
r the
yea
rs 1
998-
2000
, oth
erw
ise b
oth
dum
mies
ar
e eq
ual t
o 0.
Sta
tes w
ith fe
wer
than
two
obse
rvat
ions
per
per
iod
for a
ny o
f the
dro
pout
rate
mea
sure
s by
race
are
dro
pped
. Tre
atm
ent s
tate
s are
th
ose
stat
es th
at w
ere
requ
ired
to e
limin
ate
the
and/
or sc
ore
optio
n. T
hese
inclu
de: L
A, M
S, N
E, N
M, T
X. C
ontro
l sta
tes a
re th
ose
that
wer
e re
quire
d to
raise
their
min
imum
scor
e re
quire
men
t fro
m 3
5 to
40
in 1
997.
The
se in
clude
: AK
, AL,
AZ
, CT,
GA
, HI,
IA, I
L, IN
, KS,
MA
, ME
, MI,
MN
, MT,
NC,
NH
, NV
, OH
, PA
, RI,
SC, T
N, V
A, V
T, W
Y. C
ontro
l sta
tes d
ropp
ed d
ue to
miss
ing
and
nega
tive
drop
out r
ates
inclu
de:A
L, A
Z, I
A,
ME
, MN
, MT,
NH
, SC,
TN
, VT,
WY
. No
treat
men
t sta
tes w
ere
drop
ped.
58
Tab
leG
-15:
Fix
edE
ffec
tsE
stim
ates
ofth
eE
ffec
tof
the
Ref
orm
onD
rop
out
Rat
esR
estr
icti
ng
Sam
ple
toSou
ther
nSta
tes
(All
Rac
es)
Ind
epen
den
t V
aria
ble
s10
th-1
2th
Gra
de
Dro
pou
t R
ate
10th
-11t
h G
rad
e D
rop
out
Rat
e12
th G
rad
e D
rop
out
Rat
e
Post
199
7 du
mm
y0.
0117
0.01
120.
013
(0.0
055)
(0.0
072)
(0.0
079)
Scor
e op
tion
chan
ger s
tate
pos
t 199
7 (tr
eatm
ent e
ffect
)-0
.014
5-0
.009
5-0
.021
7(0
.002
1)(0
.002
6)(0
.010
1)Lo
cal u
nem
ploy
men
t rat
e-0
.002
3-0
.006
90.
0047
(0.0
030)
(0.0
033)
(0.0
053)
Log
of p
er c
apita
inco
me
-0.0
798
-0.0
906
-0.1
029
(0.0
359)
(0.0
308)
(0.0
601)
Min
imum
GE
D a
ge re
quire
men
t is 1
6 -0
.001
90.
0128
-0.0
198
(dum
my
for m
inim
um G
ED
age
requ
irem
ent s
et a
bove
18
is lef
t out
)(0
.001
9)(0
.001
9)(0
.006
1)M
inim
um G
ED
age
requ
irem
ent i
s 17
-0.0
054
0.01
39-0
.045
3(0
.012
4)(0
.013
9)(0
.006
9)M
inim
um G
ED
age
requ
irem
ent i
s 18
-0.0
032
0.01
23-0
.020
9(0
.001
6)(0
.002
0)(0
.004
2)M
inim
um sc
hool
leav
ing
age
is 16
0.00
860.
010.
0005
(dum
my
for m
inim
um sc
hool
leav
ing
age
set a
bove
17
is lef
t out
)(0
.008
5)(0
.010
0)(0
.004
5)M
inim
um sc
hool
leav
ing
age
is 17
0.01
70.
0205
-0.0
11(0
.021
1)(0
.024
1)(0
.006
7)O
bser
vatio
ns72
7270
Num
ber o
f Sta
tes
1212
12N
ote:
Hub
er-W
hite
robu
st st
anda
rd e
rror
s are
in p
aren
thes
es (c
lust
ered
by
stat
e). M
odel
is es
timat
ed u
sing
OLS
. Sta
te 1
5-17
yea
r old
pop
ulat
ion
are
used
as w
eight
s. St
ates
with
few
er th
an tw
o ob
serv
atio
ns p
er p
erio
d ar
e dr
oppe
d. T
he tr
eatm
ent e
ffect
repo
rted
abov
e is
the
inte
ract
ion
betw
een
the
treat
men
t sta
te d
umm
y an
d th
e po
st p
erio
d du
mm
y, w
here
the
treat
men
t sta
te d
umm
y is
equa
l to
1 fo
r tre
atm
ent s
tate
s and
the
post
perio
d du
mm
y is
equa
l to
1 fo
r the
yea
rs 1
998-
2000
, oth
erw
ise b
oth
dum
mies
are
equ
al to
0. T
reat
men
t sta
tes a
re th
ose
stat
es in
the
sout
h th
at w
ere
requ
ired
to
elim
inat
e th
e an
d/or
scor
e op
tion.
The
se in
clude
: LA
, MS,
NM
, TX
. Con
trol s
tate
s are
thos
e st
ates
in th
e so
uth
that
alre
ady
had
high
eno
ugh
stan
dard
s by
1997
. The
se in
clude
: AR,
DE
, DC,
FL,
KY
, MD
, OK
and
WV
.
59
Tab
leG
-16:
Fix
edE
ffec
tsE
stim
ates
ofth
eE
ffec
tof
the
Ref
orm
onD
rop
out
Rat
esR
estr
icti
ng
Sam
ple
toSou
ther
nSta
tes
(Whit
es)
Ind
epen
den
t V
aria
ble
s10
th-1
2th
Gra
de
Dro
pou
t R
ate
10th
-11t
h G
rad
e D
rop
out
Rat
e12
th G
rad
e D
rop
out
Rat
e
Post
199
7 du
mm
y0.
0075
0.00
80.
004
(0.0
052)
(0.0
093)
(0.0
078)
Scor
e op
tion
chan
ger s
tate
pos
t 199
7 (tr
eatm
ent e
ffect
)-0
.004
2-0
.005
30.
0007
(0.0
014)
(0.0
045)
(0.0
123)
Loca
l une
mpl
oym
ent r
ate
0.00
10-0
.001
70.
0082
(0.0
032)
(0.0
050)
(0.0
035)
Log
of p
er c
apita
inco
me
-0.0
490
-0.0
403
-0.0
606
(0.0
408)
(0.0
546)
(0.0
476)
Min
imum
GE
D a
ge re
quire
men
t is 1
6 0.
5726
…0.
6661
(dum
my
for m
inim
um G
ED
age
requ
irem
ent s
et a
bove
18
is lef
t out
)(0
.411
0)…
(0.5
179)
Min
imum
GE
D a
ge re
quire
men
t is 1
7 0.
5632
-0.0
021
0.63
02(0
.413
4)(0
.005
2)(0
.518
2)M
inim
um G
ED
age
requ
irem
ent i
s 18
0.57
23-0
.000
30.
6664
(0.4
115)
(0.0
040)
(0.5
199)
Min
imum
scho
ol le
avin
g ag
e is
160.
0129
0.01
230.
0068
(dum
my
for m
inim
um sc
hool
leav
ing
age
set a
bove
17
is lef
t out
)(0
.006
9)(0
.006
2)(0
.006
6)M
inim
um sc
hool
leav
ing
age
is 17
0.00
560.
0139
-0.0
345
(0.0
160)
(0.0
107)
(0.0
042)
Obs
erva
tions
5453
52N
umbe
r of S
tate
s9
99
Not
e: H
uber
-Whi
te ro
bust
stan
dard
err
ors a
re in
par
enth
eses
(clu
ster
ed b
y st
ate)
. Mod
el is
estim
ated
usin
g O
LS. S
tate
15-
17 y
ear o
ld p
opul
atio
n by
ra
ce a
re u
sed
as w
eight
s. S
tate
s with
few
er th
an tw
o ob
serv
atio
ns p
er p
erio
d fo
r any
of t
he d
ropo
ut ra
te m
easu
res b
y ra
ce a
re d
ropp
ed. T
he
treat
men
t effe
ct re
porte
d ab
ove
is th
e in
tera
ctio
n be
twee
n th
e tre
atm
ent s
tate
dum
my
and
the
post
per
iod
dum
my,
whe
re th
e tre
atm
ent s
tate
dum
my
is eq
ual t
o 1
for t
reat
men
t sta
tes a
nd th
e po
st p
erio
d du
mm
y is
equa
l to
1 fo
r the
yea
rs 1
998-
2000
, oth
erw
ise b
oth
dum
mies
are
equ
al to
0.
Trea
tmen
t sta
tes a
re th
ose
stat
es in
the
sout
h th
at w
ere
requ
ired
to e
limin
ate
the
and/
or sc
ore
optio
n. T
hese
inclu
de: L
A, M
S, N
M, T
X. C
ontro
l st
ates
are
thos
e st
ates
in th
e so
uth
that
alre
ady
had
high
eno
ugh
stan
dard
s by
1997
. The
se in
clude
: AR,
DE
, DC,
FL,
KY
, MD
, OK
and
WV
. Con
trol
stat
es d
ropp
ed d
ue to
miss
ings
inclu
de: A
R, K
Y a
nd W
V. N
o tre
atm
ent s
tate
s wer
e dr
oppe
d as
a re
sult
of m
issin
gs.
60
Tab
leG
-17:
Fix
edE
ffec
tsE
stim
ates
ofth
eE
ffec
tof
the
Ref
orm
onD
rop
out
Rat
esR
estr
icti
ng
Sam
ple
toSou
ther
nSta
tes
(Bla
cks)
Ind
epen
den
t V
aria
ble
s10
th-1
2th
Gra
de
Dro
pou
t R
ate
10th
-11t
h G
rad
e D
rop
out
Rat
e12
th G
rad
e D
rop
out
Rat
e
Post
199
7 du
mm
y0.
0233
0.01
810.
0347
(0.0
121)
(0.0
184)
(0.0
219)
Scor
e op
tion
chan
ger s
tate
pos
t 199
7 (tr
eatm
ent e
ffect
)-0
.021
6-0
.015
9-0
.033
(0.0
046)
(0.0
090)
(0.0
224)
Loca
l une
mpl
oym
ent r
ate
-0.0
061
-0.0
112
0.00
84(0
.008
2)(0
.009
8)(0
.010
5)Lo
g of
per
cap
ita in
com
e-0
.144
6-0
.129
4-0
.172
3(0
.069
8)(0
.054
4)(0
.169
0)M
inim
um G
ED
age
requ
irem
ent i
s 16
……
1.79
31(d
umm
y fo
r min
imum
GE
D a
ge re
quire
men
t set
abo
ve 1
8 is
left o
ut)
……
(1.7
685)
Min
imum
GE
D a
ge re
quire
men
t is 1
7 -0
.013
8-0
.011
81.
7195
(0.0
052)
(0.0
069)
(1.7
593)
Min
imum
GE
D a
ge re
quire
men
t is 1
8 -0
.006
4-0
.007
41.
7908
(0.0
031)
(0.0
055)
(1.7
627)
Min
imum
scho
ol le
avin
g ag
e is
160.
0506
0.06
550.
0323
(dum
my
for m
inim
um sc
hool
leav
ing
age
set a
bove
17
is lef
t out
)(0
.004
3)(0
.005
5)(0
.015
4)M
inim
um sc
hool
leav
ing
age
is 17
0.05
260.
0656
-0.0
177
(0.0
033)
(0.0
093)
(0.0
178)
Obs
erva
tions
5454
52N
umbe
r of S
tate
s9
99
Not
e: H
uber
-Whi
te ro
bust
stan
dard
err
ors a
re in
par
enth
eses
(clu
ster
ed b
y st
ate)
. Mod
el is
estim
ated
usin
g O
LS. S
tate
15-
17 y
ear o
ld p
opul
atio
n by
ra
ce a
re u
sed
as w
eight
s. St
ates
with
few
er th
an tw
o ob
serv
atio
ns p
er p
erio
d fo
r any
of t
he d
ropo
ut ra
te m
easu
res b
y ra
ce a
re d
ropp
ed. T
he
treat
men
t effe
ct re
porte
d ab
ove
is th
e in
tera
ctio
n be
twee
n th
e tre
atm
ent s
tate
dum
my
and
the
post
per
iod
dum
my,
whe
re th
e tre
atm
ent s
tate
dum
my
is eq
ual t
o 1
for t
reat
men
t sta
tes a
nd th
e po
st p
erio
d du
mm
y is
equa
l to
1 fo
r the
yea
rs 1
998-
2000
, oth
erw
ise b
oth
dum
mies
are
equ
al to
0.
Trea
tmen
t sta
tes a
re th
ose
stat
es in
the
sout
h th
at w
ere
requ
ired
to e
limin
ate
the
and/
or sc
ore
optio
n. T
hese
inclu
de: L
A, M
S, N
M, T
X. C
ontro
l st
ates
are
thos
e st
ates
in th
e so
uth
that
alre
ady
had
high
eno
ugh
stan
dard
s by
1997
. The
se in
clude
: AR,
DE
, DC,
FL,
KY
, MD
, OK
and
WV
. Con
trol
stat
es d
ropp
ed d
ue to
miss
ings
inclu
de: A
R, K
Y a
nd W
V. N
o tre
atm
ent s
tate
s wer
e dr
oppe
d as
a re
sult
of m
issin
gs.
61
Tab
leG
-18:
Fix
edE
ffec
tsE
stim
ates
ofth
eE
ffec
tof
the
Ref
orm
onD
rop
out
Rat
esR
estr
icti
ng
Sam
ple
toSou
ther
nSta
tes
(His
pan
ics)
Ind
epen
den
t V
aria
ble
s10
th-1
2th
Gra
de
Dro
pou
t R
ate
10th
-11t
h G
rad
e D
rop
out
Rat
e12
th G
rad
e D
rop
out
Rat
e
Post
199
7 du
mm
y0.
0221
0.01
750.
0321
(0.0
176)
(0.0
222)
(0.0
080)
Scor
e op
tion
chan
ger s
tate
pos
t 199
7 (tr
eatm
ent e
ffect
)-0
.030
8-0
.018
9-0
.058
2(0
.010
5)(0
.014
2)(0
.009
6)Lo
cal u
nem
ploy
men
t rat
e0.
0069
0.00
580.
0108
(0.0
189)
(0.0
279)
(0.0
121)
Log
of p
er c
apita
inco
me
-0.0
579
-0.0
358
-0.1
109
(0.1
369)
(0.1
830)
(0.1
271)
Min
imum
GE
D a
ge re
quire
men
t is 1
6 …
…1.
1960
(dum
my
for m
inim
um G
ED
age
requ
irem
ent s
et a
bove
18
is lef
t out
)…
…(1
.327
7)M
inim
um G
ED
age
requ
irem
ent i
s 17
-0.0
015
0.00
001.
197
(0.0
068)
(0.0
090)
(1.3
271)
Min
imum
GE
D a
ge re
quire
men
t is 1
8 0.
0103
0.01
751.
1906
(0.0
189)
(0.0
278)
(1.3
340)
Min
imum
scho
ol le
avin
g ag
e is
160.
0003
0.00
52-0
.012
1(d
umm
y fo
r min
imum
scho
ol le
avin
g ag
e se
t abo
ve 1
7 is
left o
ut)
(0.0
100)
(0.0
122)
(0.0
060)
Min
imum
scho
ol le
avin
g ag
e is
170.
0961
0.11
97-0
.019
6(0
.018
4)(0
.024
4)(0
.012
5)O
bser
vatio
ns54
5352
Num
ber o
f Sta
tes
99
9N
ote:
Hub
er-W
hite
robu
st st
anda
rd e
rror
s are
in p
aren
thes
es (c
lust
ered
by
stat
e). M
odel
is es
timat
ed u
sing
OLS
. Sta
te 1
5-17
yea
r old
pop
ulat
ion
by
race
are
use
d as
weig
hts.
Stat
es w
ith fe
wer
than
two
obse
rvat
ions
per
per
iod
for a
ny o
f the
dro
pout
rate
mea
sure
s by
race
are
dro
pped
. The
tre
atm
ent e
ffect
repo
rted
abov
e is
the
inte
ract
ion
betw
een
the
treat
men
t sta
te d
umm
y an
d th
e po
st p
erio
d du
mm
y, w
here
the
treat
men
t sta
te d
umm
y is
equa
l to
1 fo
r tre
atm
ent s
tate
s and
the
post
per
iod
dum
my
is eq
ual t
o 1
for t
he y
ears
199
8-20
00, o
ther
wise
bot
h du
mm
ies a
re e
qual
to 0
. Tr
eatm
ent s
tate
s are
thos
e st
ates
in th
e so
uth
that
wer
e re
quire
d to
elim
inat
e th
e an
d/or
scor
e op
tion.
The
se in
clude
: LA
, MS,
NM
, TX
. Con
trol
stat
es a
re th
ose
stat
es in
the
sout
h th
at a
lread
y ha
d hi
gh e
noug
h st
anda
rds b
y 19
97. T
hese
inclu
de: A
R, D
E, D
C, F
L, K
Y, M
D, O
K an
d W
V. C
ontro
l st
ates
dro
pped
due
to m
issin
gs in
clude
: AR,
KY
and
WV
. No
treat
men
t sta
tes w
ere
drop
ped
as a
resu
lt of
miss
ings
.
62
Tab
leG
-19:
Fix
edE
ffec
tsE
stim
ates
ofth
eE
ffec
tof
the
Ref
orm
onD
rop
out
Rat
esE
xcl
udin
gSta
tes
that
Chan
ged
Min
imum
Age
Req
uir
edto
Dro
pO
ut
(All
Rac
es)
Ind
epen
den
t V
aria
ble
s10
th-1
2th
Gra
de
Dro
pou
t R
ate
10th
-11t
h G
rad
e D
rop
out
Rat
e12
th G
rad
e D
rop
out
Rat
e
Post
199
7 du
mm
y0.
0094
0.01
260.
0023
(0.0
040)
(0.0
050)
(0.0
066)
Scor
e op
tion
chan
ger s
tate
pos
t 199
7 (tr
eatm
ent e
ffect
)-0
.013
-0.0
056
-0.0
293
(0.0
037)
(0.0
054)
(0.0
065)
Loca
l une
mpl
oym
ent r
ate
0.00
420.
0089
-0.0
086
(0.0
032)
(0.0
062)
(0.0
058)
Log
of p
er c
apita
inco
me
-0.0
288
-0.0
043
-0.1
038
(0.0
298)
(0.0
413)
(0.0
409)
Min
imum
GE
D a
ge re
quire
men
t is 1
6 0.
0048
0.01
49-0
.009
8(d
umm
y fo
r min
imum
GE
D a
ge re
quire
men
t set
abo
ve 1
8 is
left o
ut)
(0.0
044)
(0.0
041)
(0.0
058)
Min
imum
GE
D a
ge re
quire
men
t is 1
7 0.
0073
0.01
42-0
.002
2(0
.005
0)(0
.005
2)(0
.008
9)M
inim
um G
ED
age
requ
irem
ent i
s 18
0.00
340.
0112
-0.0
084
(0.0
038)
(0.0
023)
(0.0
045)
Obs
erva
tions
126
126
125
Num
ber o
f Sta
tes
2121
21N
ote:
Hub
er-W
hite
robu
st st
anda
rd e
rror
s are
in p
aren
thes
es (c
lust
ered
by
stat
e). M
odel
is es
timat
ed u
sing
OLS
. Sta
te 1
5-17
yea
r old
pop
ulat
ion
are
used
as w
eight
s. St
ates
with
few
er th
an tw
o ob
serv
atio
ns p
er p
erio
d ar
e dr
oppe
d. T
he tr
eatm
ent e
ffect
repo
rted
abov
e is
the
inte
ract
ion
betw
een
the
treat
men
t sta
te d
umm
y an
d th
e po
st p
erio
d du
mm
y, w
here
the
treat
men
t sta
te d
umm
y is
equa
l to
1 fo
r tre
atm
ent s
tate
s and
the
post
perio
d du
mm
y is
equa
l to
1 fo
r the
yea
rs 1
998-
2000
, oth
erw
ise b
oth
dum
mies
are
equ
al to
0. T
reat
men
t sta
tes a
re th
ose
stat
es th
at w
ere
requ
ired
to e
limin
ate
the
and/
or sc
ore
optio
n. T
hese
inclu
de: L
A, M
S, N
E, N
M, T
X. T
reat
men
t sta
tes d
ropp
ed in
this
regr
essio
n ar
e M
S an
d N
M. C
ontro
l sta
tes a
re th
ose
that
alre
ady
had
high
eno
ugh
stan
dard
s by
1997
. The
se in
clude
: AR,
CA
, CO
, DE
, DC,
FL,
ID, K
Y, M
D, M
O, N
J, N
Y, N
D, O
K, O
R, S
D, U
T,
WA
, WV
, WI.
Was
hing
ton
D.C
. is t
he o
nly
one
from
the
cont
rol g
roup
dro
pped
due
to c
hang
es in
min
imum
age
requ
ired
to d
rop
out.
Cont
rol
stat
es d
ropp
ed d
ue to
miss
ing
and
nega
tive
drop
out r
ates
inclu
de: N
J. N
o tre
atm
ent s
tate
s are
dro
pped
.
63
Tab
leG
-20:
Fix
edE
ffec
tsE
stim
ates
ofth
eE
ffec
tof
the
Ref
orm
onD
rop
out
Rat
esE
xcl
udin
gSta
tes
that
Chan
ged
Min
imum
Age
Req
uir
edto
Dro
pO
ut
(Whit
es)
Ind
epen
den
t V
aria
ble
s10
th-1
2th
Gra
de
Dro
pou
t R
ate
10th
-11t
h G
rad
e D
rop
out
Rat
e12
th G
rad
e D
rop
out
Rat
e
Post
199
7 du
mm
y0.
0079
0.00
930.
0039
(0.0
033)
(0.0
057)
(0.0
068)
Scor
e op
tion
chan
ger s
tate
pos
t 199
7 (tr
eatm
ent e
ffect
)-0
.004
20.
0001
-0.0
128
(0.0
016)
(0.0
047)
(0.0
091)
Loca
l une
mpl
oym
ent r
ate
0.00
320.
0058
-0.0
024
(0.0
018)
(0.0
046)
(0.0
056)
Log
of p
er c
apita
inco
me
-0.0
374
-0.0
217
-0.0
708
(0.0
210)
(0.0
330)
(0.0
301)
Min
imum
GE
D a
ge re
quire
men
t is 1
6 0.
0002
0.00
47-0
.008
8(d
umm
y fo
r min
imum
GE
D a
ge re
quire
men
t set
abo
ve 1
8 is
left o
ut)
(0.0
031)
(0.0
058)
(0.0
045)
Min
imum
GE
D a
ge re
quire
men
t is 1
7 0.
0041
0.00
75-0
.002
5(0
.003
5)(0
.007
7)(0
.009
0)M
inim
um G
ED
age
requ
irem
ent i
s 18
0.00
20.
0047
-0.0
039
(0.0
007)
(0.0
011)
(0.0
016)
Obs
erva
tions
6666
66N
umbe
r of S
tate
s11
1111
No
treat
men
t sta
tes a
re d
ropp
ed.
Not
e: H
uber
-Whi
te ro
bust
stan
dard
err
ors a
re in
par
enth
eses
(clu
ster
ed b
y st
ate)
. Mod
el is
estim
ated
usin
g O
LS. S
tate
15-
17 y
ear o
ld p
opul
atio
n ar
e us
ed a
s weig
hts.
Sta
tes w
ith fe
wer
than
two
obse
rvat
ions
per
per
iod
for a
ny o
f the
dro
pout
rate
mea
sure
s by
race
are
dro
pped
. The
trea
tmen
t effe
ct
repo
rted
abov
e is
the
inte
ract
ion
betw
een
the
treat
men
t sta
te d
umm
y an
d th
e po
st p
erio
d du
mm
y, w
here
the
treat
men
t sta
te d
umm
y is
equa
l to
1 fo
r tre
atm
ent s
tate
s and
the
post
per
iod
dum
my
is eq
ual t
o 1
for t
he y
ears
199
8-20
00, o
ther
wise
bot
h du
mm
ies a
re e
qual
to 0
. Tre
atm
ent s
tate
s are
thos
e st
ates
that
wer
e re
quire
d to
elim
inat
e th
e an
d/or
scor
e op
tion.
The
se in
clude
: LA
, MS,
NE
, NM
, TX
. Tre
atm
ent s
tate
s dro
pped
in th
is re
gres
sion
due
to c
hang
es in
min
imum
age
requ
ired
to d
rop
out o
f sch
ool a
re M
S an
d N
M. C
ontro
l sta
tes a
re th
ose
that
alre
ady
had
high
eno
ugh
stan
dard
s by
1997
. The
se in
clude
: AR,
CA
, CO
, DE
, DC,
FL,
ID, K
Y, M
D, M
O, N
J, N
Y, N
D, O
K, O
R, S
D, U
T, W
A, W
V, W
I. W
ashi
ngto
n D
.C. i
s the
onl
y on
e fr
om th
e co
ntro
l gro
up d
ropp
ed d
ue to
cha
nges
in m
inim
um a
ge re
quire
d to
dro
p ou
t. Co
ntro
l sta
tes d
ropp
ed d
ue to
miss
ing
and
nega
tive
drop
out r
ates
inclu
de: A
R, ID
, KY
, MO
, ND
, NJ,
NY
, SD
, UT,
WA
, WV
.
64
Tab
leG
-21:
Fix
edE
ffec
tsE
stim
ates
ofth
eE
ffec
tof
the
Ref
orm
onD
rop
out
Rat
esE
xcl
udin
gSta
tes
that
Chan
ged
Min
imum
Age
Req
uir
edto
Dro
pO
ut
(Bla
cks)
Ind
epen
den
t V
aria
ble
s10
th-1
2th
Gra
de
Dro
pou
t R
ate
10th
-11t
h G
rad
e D
rop
out
Rat
e12
th G
rad
e D
rop
out
Rat
e
Post
199
7 du
mm
y0.
0168
0.01
770.
012
(0.0
098)
(0.0
145)
(0.0
264)
Scor
e op
tion
chan
ger s
tate
pos
t 199
7 (tr
eatm
ent e
ffect
)-0
.012
50.
0013
-0.0
476
(0.0
097)
(0.0
162)
(0.0
173)
Loca
l une
mpl
oym
ent r
ate
-0.0
057
-0.0
014
-0.0
173
(0.0
065)
(0.0
137)
(0.0
181)
Log
of p
er c
apita
inco
me
-0.1
582
-0.1
385
-0.1
952
(0.0
692)
(0.0
823)
(0.1
532)
Min
imum
GE
D a
ge re
quire
men
t is 1
6 0.
0693
0.08
820.
0153
(dum
my
for m
inim
um G
ED
age
requ
irem
ent s
et a
bove
18
is lef
t out
)(0
.016
7)(0
.024
0)(0
.021
1)M
inim
um G
ED
age
requ
irem
ent i
s 17
0.00
860.
0304
-0.0
44(0
.014
9)(0
.025
7)(0
.041
3)M
inim
um G
ED
age
requ
irem
ent i
s 18
0.04
990.
0537
0.03
82(0
.003
1)(0
.005
0)(0
.010
0)O
bser
vatio
ns66
6666
Num
ber o
f Sta
tes
1111
11
No
treat
men
t sta
tes a
re d
ropp
ed.
Not
e: H
uber
-Whi
te ro
bust
stan
dard
err
ors a
re in
par
enth
eses
(clu
ster
ed b
y st
ate)
. Mod
el is
estim
ated
usin
g O
LS. S
tate
15-
17 y
ear o
ld p
opul
atio
n ar
e us
ed a
s weig
hts.
Sta
tes w
ith fe
wer
than
two
obse
rvat
ions
per
per
iod
for a
ny o
f the
dro
pout
rate
mea
sure
s by
race
are
dro
pped
. The
trea
tmen
t effe
ct
repo
rted
abov
e is
the
inte
ract
ion
betw
een
the
treat
men
t sta
te d
umm
y an
d th
e po
st p
erio
d du
mm
y, w
here
the
treat
men
t sta
te d
umm
y is
equa
l to
1 fo
r tre
atm
ent s
tate
s and
the
post
per
iod
dum
my
is eq
ual t
o 1
for t
he y
ears
199
8-20
00, o
ther
wise
bot
h du
mm
ies a
re e
qual
to 0
. Tre
atm
ent s
tate
s are
th
ose
stat
es th
at w
ere
requ
ired
to e
limin
ate
the
and/
or sc
ore
optio
n. T
hese
inclu
de: L
A, M
S, N
E, N
M, T
X. T
reat
men
t sta
tes d
ropp
ed in
this
regr
essio
n du
e to
cha
nges
in m
inim
um a
ge re
quire
d to
dro
p ou
t of s
choo
l are
MS
and
NM
. Con
trol s
tate
s are
thos
e th
at a
lread
y ha
d hi
gh e
noug
h st
anda
rds b
y 19
97. T
hese
inclu
de: A
R, C
A, C
O, D
E, D
C, F
L, ID
, KY
, MD
, MO
, NJ,
NY
, ND
, OK
, OR,
SD
, UT,
WA
, WV
, WI.
Was
hing
ton
D.C
. is
the
only
one
from
the
cont
rol g
roup
dro
pped
due
to c
hang
es in
min
imum
age
requ
ired
to d
rop
out.
Cont
rol s
tate
s dro
pped
due
to m
issin
g an
d ne
gativ
e dr
opou
t rat
es in
clude
: AR,
ID, K
Y, M
O, N
D, N
J, N
Y, S
D, U
T, W
A, W
V.
65
Tab
leG
-22:
Fix
edE
ffec
tsE
stim
ates
ofth
eE
ffec
tof
the
Ref
orm
onD
rop
out
Rat
esE
xcl
udin
gSta
tes
that
Chan
ged
Min
imum
Age
Req
uir
edto
Dro
pO
ut
(His
pan
ics)
Ind
epen
den
t V
aria
ble
s10
th-1
2th
Gra
de
Dro
pou
t R
ate
10th
-11t
h G
rad
e D
rop
out
Rat
e12
th G
rad
e D
rop
out
Rat
e
Post
199
7 du
mm
y0.
0142
0.01
070.
0225
(0.0
064)
(0.0
065)
(0.0
076)
Scor
e op
tion
chan
ger s
tate
pos
t 199
7 (tr
eatm
ent e
ffect
)-0
.025
8-0
.012
5-0
.059
8(0
.004
0)(0
.005
2)(0
.004
8)Lo
cal u
nem
ploy
men
t rat
e0.
0105
0.01
89-0
.012
9(0
.004
6)(0
.007
6)(0
.007
2)Lo
g of
per
cap
ita in
com
e-0
.021
30.
0507
-0.2
160
(0.0
596)
(0.0
739)
(0.0
728)
Min
imum
GE
D a
ge re
quire
men
t is 1
6 0.
0226
0.02
620.
0057
(dum
my
for m
inim
um G
ED
age
requ
irem
ent s
et a
bove
18
is lef
t out
)(0
.013
2)(0
.019
2)(0
.013
1)M
inim
um G
ED
age
requ
irem
ent i
s 17
0.03
440.
0407
0.00
79(0
.011
9)(0
.018
3)(0
.016
3)M
inim
um G
ED
age
requ
irem
ent i
s 18
0.04
010.
0509
0.01
15(0
.003
5)(0
.005
4)(0
.005
0)O
bser
vatio
ns66
6664
Num
ber o
f Sta
tes
1111
11
No
treat
men
t sta
tes a
re d
ropp
ed.
Not
e: H
uber
-Whi
te ro
bust
stan
dard
err
ors a
re in
par
enth
eses
(clu
ster
ed b
y st
ate)
. Mod
el is
estim
ated
usin
g O
LS. S
tate
15-
17 y
ear o
ld p
opul
atio
n ar
e us
ed a
s weig
hts.
Sta
tes w
ith fe
wer
than
two
obse
rvat
ions
per
per
iod
for a
ny o
f the
dro
pout
rate
mea
sure
s by
race
are
dro
pped
. The
trea
tmen
t effe
ct
repo
rted
abov
e is
the
inte
ract
ion
betw
een
the
treat
men
t sta
te d
umm
y an
d th
e po
st p
erio
d du
mm
y, w
here
the
treat
men
t sta
te d
umm
y is
equa
l to
1 fo
r tre
atm
ent s
tate
s and
the
post
per
iod
dum
my
is eq
ual t
o 1
for t
he y
ears
199
8-20
00, o
ther
wise
bot
h du
mm
ies a
re e
qual
to 0
. Tre
atm
ent s
tate
s are
thos
e st
ates
that
wer
e re
quire
d to
elim
inat
e th
e an
d/or
scor
e op
tion.
The
se in
clude
: LA
, MS,
NE
, NM
, TX
. Tre
atm
ent s
tate
s dro
pped
in th
is re
gres
sion
due
to c
hang
es in
min
imum
age
requ
ired
to d
rop
out o
f sch
ool a
re M
S an
d N
M. C
ontro
l sta
tes a
re th
ose
that
alre
ady
had
high
eno
ugh
stan
dard
s by
1997
. The
se in
clude
: AR,
CA
, CO
, DE
, DC,
FL,
ID, K
Y, M
D, M
O, N
J, N
Y, N
D, O
K, O
R, S
D, U
T, W
A, W
V, W
I. W
ashi
ngto
n D
.C. i
s the
onl
y on
e fr
om th
e co
ntro
l gro
up d
ropp
ed d
ue to
cha
nges
in m
inim
um a
ge re
quire
d to
dro
p ou
t. Co
ntro
l sta
tes d
ropp
ed d
ue to
miss
ing
and
nega
tive
drop
out r
ates
inclu
de: A
R, ID
, KY
, MO
, ND
, NJ,
NY
, SD
, UT,
WA
, WV
.
66
Tab
leG
-23:
Fix
edE
ffec
tsE
stim
ates
ofth
eE
ffec
tof
the
Ref
orm
onD
rop
out
Rat
eE
xcl
udin
gSta
tes
that
Chan
ged
the
Min
imum
Age
Req
uir
edto
eith
erD
rop
Out
orT
ake
the
GE
D(A
llR
aces
)
Ind
epen
den
t V
aria
ble
s10
th-1
2th
Gra
de
Dro
pou
t R
ate
10th
-11t
h G
rad
e D
rop
out
Rat
e12
th G
rad
e D
rop
out
Rat
e
Post
199
7 du
mm
y0.
0125
0.01
610.
003
(0.0
048)
(0.0
059)
(0.0
083)
Scor
e op
tion
chan
ger s
tate
pos
t 199
7 (tr
eatm
ent e
ffect
)-0
.015
1-0
.007
8-0
.032
1(0
.004
5)(0
.006
8)(0
.006
3)Lo
cal u
nem
ploy
men
t rat
e0.
0072
0.01
42-0
.010
1(0
.003
9)(0
.007
7)(0
.007
0)Lo
g of
per
cap
ita in
com
e-0
.011
90.
0316
-0.1
167
(0.0
422)
(0.0
601)
(0.0
543)
Obs
erva
tions
7272
72N
umbe
r of S
tate
s12
1212
Not
e: H
uber
-Whi
te ro
bust
stan
dard
err
ors a
re in
par
enth
eses
(clu
ster
ed b
y st
ate)
. Mod
el is
estim
ated
usin
g O
LS. S
tate
15-
17 y
ear o
ld p
opul
atio
n ar
e us
ed a
s weig
hts.
Stat
es w
ith fe
wer
than
two
obse
rvat
ions
per
per
iod
are
drop
ped.
The
trea
tmen
t effe
ct re
porte
d ab
ove
is th
e in
tera
ctio
n be
twee
n th
e tre
atm
ent s
tate
dum
my
and
the
post
per
iod
dum
my,
whe
re th
e tre
atm
ent s
tate
dum
my
is eq
ual t
o 1
for t
reat
men
t sta
tes a
nd th
e po
st pe
riod
dum
my
is eq
ual t
o 1
for t
he y
ears
199
8-20
00, o
ther
wise
bot
h du
mm
ies a
re e
qual
to 0
. Tre
atm
ent s
tate
s are
thos
e st
ates
that
wer
e re
quire
d to
elim
inat
e th
e an
d/or
scor
e op
tion
and
did
not c
hang
e ag
e re
quire
men
ts d
urin
g pe
riod
unde
r stu
dy.
Thes
e in
clude
: LA
, TX
. Con
trol s
tate
s are
thos
e th
at a
lread
y ha
d hi
gh e
noug
h st
anda
rds b
y 19
97 a
nd d
id n
ot c
hang
e ag
e re
quire
men
ts d
urin
g pe
riod
unde
r stu
dy. T
hese
inclu
de: C
A, C
O, D
E, F
L, ID
, MD
, NJ,
NY
, ND
, WA
, WV
. Con
trol s
tate
s dro
pped
due
to m
issin
g an
d ne
gativ
e dr
opou
t rat
es in
clude
: NJ.
No
treat
men
t sta
tes a
re d
ropp
ed.
67
Tab
leG
-24:
Fix
edE
ffec
tsE
stim
ates
ofth
eE
ffec
tof
the
Ref
orm
onD
rop
out
Rat
eE
xcl
udin
gSta
tes
that
Chan
ged
the
Min
imum
Age
Req
uir
edto
eith
erD
rop
Out
orT
ake
the
GE
D(W
hit
es)
Ind
epen
den
t V
aria
ble
s10
th-1
2th
Gra
de
Dro
pou
t R
ate
10th
-11t
h G
rad
e D
rop
out
Rat
e12
th G
rad
e D
rop
out
Rat
e
Post
199
7 du
mm
y0.
0106
0.01
210.
0061
(0.0
032)
(0.0
069)
(0.0
103)
Scor
e op
tion
chan
ger s
tate
pos
t 199
7 (tr
eatm
ent e
ffect
)-0
.003
80.
0016
-0.0
145
(0.0
010)
(0.0
045)
(0.0
114)
Loca
l une
mpl
oym
ent r
ate
0.00
340.
0065
-0.0
035
(0.0
026)
(0.0
056)
(0.0
058)
Log
of p
er c
apita
inco
me
-0.0
481
-0.0
305
-0.0
856
(0.0
290)
(0.0
430)
(0.0
301)
Obs
erva
tions
4242
42N
umbe
r of S
tate
s12
1212
Not
e: H
uber
-Whi
te ro
bust
stan
dard
err
ors a
re in
par
enth
eses
(clu
ster
ed b
y st
ate)
. Mod
el is
estim
ated
usin
g O
LS. S
tate
15-
17 y
ear o
ld p
opul
atio
n ar
e us
ed a
s weig
hts.
Stat
es w
ith fe
wer
than
two
obse
rvat
ions
per
per
iod
are
drop
ped.
The
trea
tmen
t effe
ct re
porte
d ab
ove
is th
e in
tera
ctio
n be
twee
n th
e tre
atm
ent s
tate
dum
my
and
the
post
per
iod
dum
my,
whe
re th
e tre
atm
ent s
tate
dum
my
is eq
ual t
o 1
for t
reat
men
t sta
tes a
nd th
e po
st pe
riod
dum
my
is eq
ual t
o 1
for t
he y
ears
199
8-20
00, o
ther
wise
bot
h du
mm
ies a
re e
qual
to 0
. Tre
atm
ent s
tate
s are
thos
e st
ates
that
wer
e re
quire
d to
elim
inat
e th
e an
d/or
scor
e op
tion
and
did
not c
hang
e ag
e re
quire
men
ts d
urin
g pe
riod
unde
r stu
dy.
Thes
e in
clude
: LA
, TX
. Con
trol s
tate
s are
thos
e th
at a
lread
y ha
d hi
gh e
noug
h st
anda
rds b
y 19
97 a
nd d
id n
ot c
hang
e ag
e re
quire
men
ts d
urin
g pe
riod
unde
r stu
dy. T
hese
inclu
de: C
A, C
O, D
E, F
L, ID
, MD
, NJ,
NY
, ND
, WA
, WV
. Con
trol s
tate
s dro
pped
due
to m
issin
g an
d ne
gativ
e dr
opou
t rat
es in
clude
: NJ,
NY
, WA
, WV
. No
treat
men
t sta
tes a
re d
ropp
ed.
68
Tab
leG
-25:
Fix
edE
ffec
tsE
stim
ates
ofth
eE
ffec
tof
the
Ref
orm
onD
rop
out
Rat
eE
xcl
udin
gSta
tes
that
Chan
ged
the
Min
imum
Age
Req
uir
edto
eith
erD
rop
Out
orT
ake
the
GE
D(B
lack
s)
Ind
epen
den
t V
aria
ble
s10
th-1
2th
Gra
de
Dro
pou
t R
ate
10th
-11t
h G
rad
e D
rop
out
Rat
e12
th G
rad
e D
rop
out
Rat
e
Post
199
7 du
mm
y0.
0178
0.01
760.
0146
(0.0
107)
(0.0
163)
(0.0
297)
Scor
e op
tion
chan
ger s
tate
pos
t 199
7 (tr
eatm
ent e
ffect
)-0
.012
80.
0016
-0.0
488
(0.0
108)
(0.0
176)
(0.0
188)
Loca
l une
mpl
oym
ent r
ate
-0.0
025
0.00
24-0
.017
1(0
.006
6)(0
.014
0)(0
.020
5)Lo
g of
per
cap
ita in
com
e-0
.131
4-0
.103
1-0
.202
3(0
.073
7)(0
.074
0)(0
.169
6)O
bser
vatio
ns42
4242
Num
ber o
f Sta
tes
1212
12N
ote:
Hub
er-W
hite
robu
st st
anda
rd e
rror
s are
in p
aren
thes
es (c
lust
ered
by
stat
e). M
odel
is es
timat
ed u
sing
OLS
. Sta
te 1
5-17
yea
r old
pop
ulat
ion
are
used
as w
eight
s. St
ates
with
few
er th
an tw
o ob
serv
atio
ns p
er p
erio
d ar
e dr
oppe
d. T
he tr
eatm
ent e
ffect
repo
rted
abov
e is
the
inte
ract
ion
betw
een
the
treat
men
t sta
te d
umm
y an
d th
e po
st p
erio
d du
mm
y, w
here
the
treat
men
t sta
te d
umm
y is
equa
l to
1 fo
r tre
atm
ent s
tate
s and
the
post
perio
d du
mm
y is
equa
l to
1 fo
r the
yea
rs 1
998-
2000
, oth
erw
ise b
oth
dum
mies
are
equ
al to
0. T
reat
men
t sta
tes a
re th
ose
stat
es th
at w
ere
requ
ired
to e
limin
ate
the
and/
or sc
ore
optio
n an
d di
d no
t cha
nge
age
requ
irem
ents
dur
ing
perio
d un
der s
tudy
. Th
ese
inclu
de: L
A, T
X. C
ontro
l sta
tes a
re th
ose
that
alre
ady
had
high
eno
ugh
stan
dard
s by
1997
and
did
not
cha
nge
age
requ
irem
ents
dur
ing
perio
d un
der s
tudy
. The
se in
clude
: CA
, CO
, DE
, FL,
ID, M
D, N
J, N
Y, N
D, W
A, W
V. C
ontro
l sta
tes d
ropp
ed d
ue to
miss
ing
and
nega
tive
drop
out r
ates
inclu
de: N
J, N
Y, W
A, W
V. N
o tre
atm
ent s
tate
s are
dro
pped
.
69
Tab
leG
-26:
Fix
edE
ffec
tsE
stim
ates
ofth
eE
ffec
tof
the
Ref
orm
onD
rop
out
Rat
eE
xcl
udin
gSta
tes
that
Chan
ged
the
Min
imum
Age
Req
uir
edto
eith
erD
rop
Out
orT
ake
the
GE
D(H
ispan
ics)
Ind
epen
den
t V
aria
ble
s10
th-1
2th
Gra
de
Dro
pou
t R
ate
10th
-11t
h G
rad
e D
rop
out
Rat
e12
th G
rad
e D
rop
out
Rat
e
Post
199
7 du
mm
y0.
0147
0.01
160.
0219
(0.0
070)
(0.0
078)
(0.0
069)
Scor
e op
tion
chan
ger s
tate
pos
t 199
7 (tr
eatm
ent e
ffect
)-0
.027
4-0
.015
3-0
.057
5(0
.004
7)(0
.006
0)(0
.005
9)Lo
cal u
nem
ploy
men
t rat
e0.
0123
0.02
21-0
.015
5(0
.005
4)(0
.008
7)(0
.008
2)Lo
g of
per
cap
ita in
com
e-0
.004
80.
0809
-0.2
417
(0.0
663)
(0.0
811)
(0.0
803)
Obs
erva
tions
4242
41N
umbe
r of S
tate
s12
1212
Not
e: H
uber
-Whi
te ro
bust
stan
dard
err
ors a
re in
par
enth
eses
(clu
ster
ed b
y st
ate)
. Mod
el is
estim
ated
usin
g O
LS. S
tate
15-
17 y
ear o
ld p
opul
atio
n ar
e us
ed a
s weig
hts.
Stat
es w
ith fe
wer
than
two
obse
rvat
ions
per
per
iod
are
drop
ped.
The
trea
tmen
t effe
ct re
porte
d ab
ove
is th
e in
tera
ctio
n be
twee
n th
e tre
atm
ent s
tate
dum
my
and
the
post
per
iod
dum
my,
whe
re th
e tre
atm
ent s
tate
dum
my
is eq
ual t
o 1
for t
reat
men
t sta
tes a
nd th
e po
st pe
riod
dum
my
is eq
ual t
o 1
for t
he y
ears
199
8-20
00, o
ther
wise
bot
h du
mm
ies a
re e
qual
to 0
. Tre
atm
ent s
tate
s are
thos
e st
ates
that
wer
e re
quire
d to
elim
inat
e th
e an
d/or
scor
e op
tion
and
did
not c
hang
e ag
e re
quire
men
ts d
urin
g pe
riod
unde
r stu
dy.
Thes
e in
clude
: LA
, TX
. Con
trol s
tate
s are
thos
e th
at a
lread
y ha
d hi
gh e
noug
h st
anda
rds b
y 19
97 a
nd d
id n
ot c
hang
e ag
e re
quire
men
ts d
urin
g pe
riod
unde
r stu
dy. T
hese
inclu
de: C
A, C
O, D
E, F
L, ID
, MD
, NJ,
NY
, ND
, WA
, WV
. Con
trol s
tate
s dro
pped
due
to m
issin
g an
d ne
gativ
e dr
opou
t rat
es in
clude
: NJ,
NY
, WA
, WV
. No
treat
men
t sta
tes a
re d
ropp
ed.
70
Tab
leG
-27:
GL
SF
ixed
Eff
ects
Est
imat
esof
the
Eff
ect
ofth
eR
efor
mon
Dro
pou
tR
ates
Con
trol
ling
for
Age
Req
uir
emen
ts(A
llR
aces
)
Ind
epen
den
t V
aria
ble
s10
th-1
2th
Gra
de
Dro
pou
t R
ate
10th
-11t
h G
rad
e D
rop
out
Rat
e12
th G
rad
e D
rop
out
Rat
e
Post
199
7 du
mm
y0.
0079
0.01
110.
0027
(0.0
022)
(0.0
026)
(0.0
033)
Scor
e op
tion
chan
ger s
tate
pos
t 199
7 (tr
eatm
ent e
ffect
)-0
.012
7-0
.007
7-0
.027
(0.0
021)
(0.0
021)
(0.0
049)
Loca
l une
mpl
oym
ent r
ate
0.00
220.
0039
-0.0
034
(0.0
011)
(0.0
015)
(0.0
017)
Log
of p
er c
apita
inco
me
-0.0
370
-0.0
285
-0.0
680
(0.0
118)
(0.0
135)
(0.0
180)
Min
imum
GE
D a
ge re
quire
men
t is 1
6 0.
0072
0.01
26-0
.002
0(d
umm
y fo
r min
imum
GE
D a
ge re
quire
men
t set
abo
ve 1
8 is
left o
ut)
(0.0
030)
(0.0
041)
(0.0
035)
Min
imum
GE
D a
ge re
quire
men
t is 1
7 0.
0021
0.00
77-0
.013
4(0
.004
4)(0
.005
0)(0
.008
2)M
inim
um G
ED
age
requ
irem
ent i
s 18
0.00
590.
01-0
.004
8(0
.002
5)(0
.003
6)(0
.003
0)M
inim
um sc
hool
leav
ing
age
is 16
0.00
230.
0009
0.00
47(d
umm
y fo
r min
imum
scho
ol le
avin
g ag
e se
t abo
ve 1
7 is
left o
ut)
(0.0
056)
(0.0
041)
(0.0
106)
Min
imum
scho
ol le
avin
g ag
e is
170.
0059
0.00
290.
0097
(0.0
076)
(0.0
073)
(0.0
129)
Obs
erva
tions
144
144
142
Num
ber o
f Sta
tes
2424
24N
ote:
Hub
er-W
hite
robu
st st
anda
rd e
rror
s are
in p
aren
thes
es (c
lust
ered
by
stat
e). M
odel
is es
timat
ed u
sing
GLS
. Sta
te 1
5-17
yea
r old
pop
ulat
ions
are
us
ed a
s weig
hts.
The
treat
men
t effe
ct re
porte
d ab
ove
is th
e in
tera
ctio
n be
twee
n th
e tre
atm
ent s
tate
dum
my
and
the
post
199
7 du
mm
y, w
here
the
treat
men
t sta
te d
umm
y is
equa
l to
1 fo
r tre
atm
ent s
tate
s and
the
post
199
7 du
mm
y is
equa
l to
1 fo
r the
yea
rs 1
998-
2000
, oth
erw
ise b
oth
dum
mies
ar
e eq
ual t
o 0.
Sta
tes w
ith fe
wer
than
two
obse
rvat
ions
per
per
iod
are
drop
ped.
Tre
atm
ent s
tate
s are
thos
e st
ates
that
wer
e re
quire
d to
elim
inat
e th
e an
d/or
scor
e op
tion.
The
se in
clude
: LA
, MS,
NE
, NM
, TX
. Con
trol s
tate
s are
thos
e th
at a
lread
y ha
d hi
gh e
noug
h st
anda
rds b
y 19
97. T
hese
inclu
de:
AR,
CA
, CO
, DE
, DC,
FL,
ID, K
Y, M
D, M
O, N
Y, N
D, O
K, O
R, S
D, U
T, W
A, W
V, W
I. C
ontro
l sta
tes d
ropp
ed d
ue to
miss
ing
and
nega
tive
drop
out r
ates
inclu
de: N
J. N
o tre
atm
ent s
tate
s are
dro
pped
.
71
Tab
leG
-28:
GL
SF
ixed
Eff
ects
Est
imat
esof
the
Eff
ect
ofth
eR
efor
mon
Dro
pou
tR
ates
Con
trol
ling
for
Age
Req
uir
emen
ts(W
hit
es)
Ind
epen
den
t V
aria
ble
s10
th-1
2th
Gra
de
Dro
pou
t R
ate
10th
-11t
h G
rad
e D
rop
out
Rat
e12
th G
rad
e D
rop
out
Rat
e
Post
199
7 du
mm
y0.
007
0.00
860.
0008
(0.0
019)
(0.0
022)
(0.0
035)
Scor
e op
tion
chan
ger s
tate
pos
t 199
7 (tr
eatm
ent e
ffect
)-0
.004
20.
0005
-0.0
118
(0.0
015)
(0.0
017)
(0.0
041)
Loca
l une
mpl
oym
ent r
ate
0.00
380.
0051
-0.0
007
(0.0
010)
(0.0
016)
(0.0
018)
Log
of p
er c
apita
inco
me
-0.0
297
-0.0
201
-0.0
528
(0.0
100)
(0.0
124)
(0.0
181)
Min
imum
GE
D a
ge re
quire
men
t is 1
6 0.
0039
0.00
87-0
.004
4(d
umm
y fo
r min
imum
GE
D a
ge re
quire
men
t set
abo
ve 1
8 is
left o
ut)
(0.0
024)
(0.0
033)
(0.0
033)
Min
imum
GE
D a
ge re
quire
men
t is 1
7 0.
0054
0.00
92-0
.013
8(0
.005
1)(0
.007
1)(0
.010
8)M
inim
um G
ED
age
requ
irem
ent i
s 18
0.00
230.
0046
-0.0
036
(0.0
012)
(0.0
021)
(0.0
022)
Min
imum
scho
ol le
avin
g ag
e is
160.
0159
0.01
590.
0114
(dum
my
for m
inim
um sc
hool
leav
ing
age
set a
bove
17
is lef
t out
)(0
.008
9)(0
.012
9)(0
.013
6)M
inim
um sc
hool
leav
ing
age
is 17
0.01
950.
0194
0.00
1(0
.010
6)(0
.015
1)(0
.018
3)O
bser
vatio
ns84
8382
Num
ber o
f Sta
tes
1414
14N
ote:
Hub
er-W
hite
robu
st st
anda
rd e
rror
s are
in p
aren
thes
es (c
lust
ered
by
stat
e). M
odel
is es
timat
ed u
sing
GLS
. Sta
te 1
5-17
yea
r old
pop
ulat
ions
are
us
ed a
s weig
hts.
The
treat
men
t effe
ct re
porte
d ab
ove
is th
e in
tera
ctio
n be
twee
n th
e tre
atm
ent s
tate
dum
my
and
the
post
199
7 du
mm
y, w
here
the
treat
men
t sta
te d
umm
y is
equa
l to
1 fo
r tre
atm
ent s
tate
s and
the
post
199
7 du
mm
y is
equa
l to
1 fo
r the
yea
rs 1
998-
2000
, oth
erw
ise b
oth
dum
mies
ar
e eq
ual t
o 0.
Sta
tes w
ith fe
wer
than
two
obse
rvat
ions
per
per
iod
for a
ny o
f the
dro
pout
rate
mea
sure
s by
race
are
dro
pped
. Tre
atm
ent s
tate
s are
th
ose
stat
es th
at w
ere
requ
ired
to e
limin
ate
the
and/
or sc
ore
optio
n. T
hese
inclu
de: L
A, M
S, N
E, N
M, T
X. C
ontro
l sta
tes a
re th
ose
that
alre
ady
had
high
eno
ugh
stan
dard
s by
1997
. The
se in
clude
: AR,
CA
, CO
, DE
, DC,
FL,
ID, K
Y, M
D, M
O, N
Y, N
D, O
K, O
R, S
D, U
T, W
A, W
V, W
I. C
ontro
l st
ates
dro
pped
due
to m
issin
g an
d ne
gativ
e dr
opou
t rat
es in
clude
: AR,
ID, K
Y, M
O, N
D, N
J, N
Y, S
D, U
T, W
A, W
V. N
o tre
atm
ent s
tate
s are
dr
oppe
d.
72
Tab
leG
-29:
GL
SF
ixed
Eff
ects
Est
imat
esof
the
Eff
ect
ofth
eR
efor
mon
Dro
pou
tR
ates
Con
trol
ling
for
Age
Req
uir
emen
ts(B
lack
s)
Ind
epen
den
t V
aria
ble
s10
th-1
2th
Gra
de
Dro
pou
t R
ate
10th
-11t
h G
rad
e D
rop
out
Rat
e12
th G
rad
e D
rop
out
Rat
e
Post
199
7 du
mm
y0.
0172
0.01
40.
0136
(0.0
056)
(0.0
082)
(0.0
116)
Scor
e op
tion
chan
ger s
tate
pos
t 199
7 (tr
eatm
ent e
ffect
)-0
.016
-0.0
071
-0.0
386
(0.0
043)
(0.0
061)
(0.0
107)
Loca
l une
mpl
oym
ent r
ate
-0.0
065
-0.0
025
0.00
30(0
.003
3)(0
.005
2)(0
.005
3)Lo
g of
per
cap
ita in
com
e-0
.157
7-0
.097
6-0
.043
7(0
.031
1)(0
.044
1)(0
.054
4)M
inim
um G
ED
age
requ
irem
ent i
s 16
0.05
740.
0676
0.04
93(d
umm
y fo
r min
imum
GE
D a
ge re
quire
men
t set
abo
ve 1
8 is
left o
ut)
(0.0
143)
(0.0
217)
(0.0
122)
Min
imum
GE
D a
ge re
quire
men
t is 1
7 0.
023
0.04
06-0
.008
3(0
.022
2)(0
.035
2)(0
.019
9)M
inim
um G
ED
age
requ
irem
ent i
s 18
0.05
0.05
520.
0498
(0.0
133)
(0.0
203)
(0.0
107)
Min
imum
scho
ol le
avin
g ag
e is
160.
0395
0.06
210.
0334
(dum
my
for m
inim
um sc
hool
leav
ing
age
set a
bove
17
is lef
t out
)(0
.016
0)(0
.029
1)(0
.020
6)M
inim
um sc
hool
leav
ing
age
is 17
0.02
420.
0494
-0.0
04(0
.024
8)(0
.034
3)(0
.024
0)O
bser
vatio
ns84
8482
Num
ber o
f Sta
tes
1414
14N
ote:
Hub
er-W
hite
robu
st st
anda
rd e
rror
s are
in p
aren
thes
es (c
lust
ered
by
stat
e). M
odel
is es
timat
ed u
sing
GLS
. Sta
te 1
5-17
yea
r old
pop
ulat
ions
are
us
ed a
s weig
hts.
The
treat
men
t effe
ct re
porte
d ab
ove
is th
e in
tera
ctio
n be
twee
n th
e tre
atm
ent s
tate
dum
my
and
the
post
199
7 du
mm
y, w
here
the
treat
men
t sta
te d
umm
y is
equa
l to
1 fo
r tre
atm
ent s
tate
s and
the
post
199
7 du
mm
y is
equa
l to
1 fo
r the
yea
rs 1
998-
2000
, oth
erw
ise b
oth
dum
mies
ar
e eq
ual t
o 0.
Sta
tes w
ith fe
wer
than
two
obse
rvat
ions
per
per
iod
for a
ny o
f the
dro
pout
rate
mea
sure
s by
race
are
dro
pped
. Tre
atm
ent s
tate
s are
th
ose
stat
es th
at w
ere
requ
ired
to e
limin
ate
the
and/
or sc
ore
optio
n. T
hese
inclu
de: L
A, M
S, N
E, N
M, T
X. C
ontro
l sta
tes a
re th
ose
that
alre
ady
had
high
eno
ugh
stan
dard
s by
1997
. The
se in
clude
: AR,
CA
, CO
, DE
, DC,
FL,
ID, K
Y, M
D, M
O, N
Y, N
D, O
K, O
R, S
D, U
T, W
A, W
V, W
I. C
ontro
l st
ates
dro
pped
due
to m
issin
g an
d ne
gativ
e dr
opou
t rat
es in
clude
: AR,
ID, K
Y, M
O, N
D, N
J, N
Y, S
D, U
T, W
A, W
V. N
o tre
atm
ent s
tate
s are
dr
oppe
d.
73
Tab
leG
-30:
GL
SF
ixed
Eff
ects
Est
imat
esof
the
Eff
ect
ofth
eR
efor
mon
Dro
pou
tR
ates
Con
trol
ling
for
Age
Req
uir
emen
ts(H
ispan
ics)
Ind
epen
den
t V
aria
ble
s10
th-1
2th
Gra
de
Dro
pou
t R
ate
10th
-11t
h G
rad
e D
rop
out
Rat
e12
th G
rad
e D
rop
out
Rat
e
Post
199
7 du
mm
y0.
013
0.01
480.
0258
(0.0
048)
(0.0
063)
(0.0
086)
Scor
e op
tion
chan
ger s
tate
pos
t 199
7 (tr
eatm
ent e
ffect
)-0
.026
5-0
.015
5-0
.064
4(0
.004
6)(0
.005
5)(0
.006
5)Lo
cal u
nem
ploy
men
t rat
e0.
0118
0.02
31-0
.004
6(0
.002
7)(0
.003
6)(0
.003
8)Lo
g of
per
cap
ita in
com
e-0
.007
50.
0709
-0.1
568
(0.0
293)
(0.0
367)
(0.0
421)
Min
imum
GE
D a
ge re
quire
men
t is 1
6 0.
0290
0.04
540.
0143
(dum
my
for m
inim
um G
ED
age
requ
irem
ent s
et a
bove
18
is lef
t out
)(0
.017
4)(0
.025
2)(0
.017
1)M
inim
um G
ED
age
requ
irem
ent i
s 17
0.03
420.
0526
0.00
86(0
.019
5)(0
.027
7)(0
.018
8)M
inim
um G
ED
age
requ
irem
ent i
s 18
0.04
070.
054
0.01
73(0
.015
5)(0
.023
0)(0
.014
7)M
inim
um sc
hool
leav
ing
age
is 16
-0.0
027
0.00
62-0
.018
1(d
umm
y fo
r min
imum
scho
ol le
avin
g ag
e se
t abo
ve 1
7 is
left o
ut)
(0.0
114)
(0.0
136)
(0.0
101)
Min
imum
scho
ol le
avin
g ag
e is
170.
0706
0.08
77-0
.018
9(0
.014
7)(0
.022
9)(0
.042
6)O
bser
vatio
ns84
8382
Num
ber o
f Sta
tes
1414
14N
ote:
Hub
er-W
hite
robu
st st
anda
rd e
rror
s are
in p
aren
thes
es (c
lust
ered
by
stat
e). M
odel
is es
timat
ed u
sing
GLS
. Sta
te 1
5-17
yea
r old
pop
ulat
ions
are
us
ed a
s weig
hts.
The
treat
men
t effe
ct re
porte
d ab
ove
is th
e in
tera
ctio
n be
twee
n th
e tre
atm
ent s
tate
dum
my
and
the
post
199
7 du
mm
y, w
here
the
treat
men
t sta
te d
umm
y is
equa
l to
1 fo
r tre
atm
ent s
tate
s and
the
post
199
7 du
mm
y is
equa
l to
1 fo
r the
yea
rs 1
998-
2000
, oth
erw
ise b
oth
dum
mies
ar
e eq
ual t
o 0.
Sta
tes w
ith fe
wer
than
two
obse
rvat
ions
per
per
iod
for a
ny o
f the
dro
pout
rate
mea
sure
s by
race
are
dro
pped
. Tre
atm
ent s
tate
s are
th
ose
stat
es th
at w
ere
requ
ired
to e
limin
ate
the
and/
or sc
ore
optio
n. T
hese
inclu
de: L
A, M
S, N
E, N
M, T
X. C
ontro
l sta
tes a
re th
ose
that
alre
ady
had
high
eno
ugh
stan
dard
s by
1997
. The
se in
clude
: AR,
CA
, CO
, DE
, DC,
FL,
ID, K
Y, M
D, M
O, N
Y, N
D, O
K, O
R, S
D, U
T, W
A, W
V, W
I. C
ontro
l st
ates
dro
pped
due
to m
issin
g an
d ne
gativ
e dr
opou
t rat
es in
clude
: AR,
ID, K
Y, M
O, N
D, N
J, N
Y, S
D, U
T, W
A, W
V. N
o tre
atm
ent s
tate
s are
dr
oppe
d.
74
Tab
leG
-31:
GL
SF
ixed
Eff
ects
Est
imat
esof
the
Eff
ect
ofth
eR
efor
mon
Dro
pou
tR
ates
Con
trol
ling
for
Age
Req
uir
emen
tsan
dU
sing
Pan
elSp
ecifi
cA
R-1
Auto
corr
elat
ion
Str
uct
ure
(All
Rac
es)
Ind
epen
den
t V
aria
ble
s10
th-1
2th
Gra
de
Dro
pou
t R
ate
10th
-11t
h G
rad
e D
rop
out
Rat
e12
th G
rad
e D
rop
out
Rat
e
Post
199
7 du
mm
y0.
0076
0.01
220.
0018
(0.0
019)
(0.0
019)
(0.0
024)
Scor
e op
tion
chan
ger s
tate
pos
t 199
7 (tr
eatm
ent e
ffect
)-0
.013
7-0
.009
-0.0
283
(0.0
017)
(0.0
019)
(0.0
038)
Loca
l une
mpl
oym
ent r
ate
0.00
270.
0049
-0.0
068
(0.0
010)
(0.0
012)
(0.0
016)
Log
of p
er c
apita
inco
me
-0.0
283
-0.0
207
-0.0
925
(0.0
106)
(0.0
106)
(0.0
135)
Min
imum
GE
D a
ge re
quire
men
t is 1
6 0.
0077
0.01
50-0
.003
2(d
umm
y fo
r min
imum
GE
D a
ge re
quire
men
t set
abo
ve 1
8 is
left o
ut)
(0.0
026)
(0.0
019)
(0.0
023)
Min
imum
GE
D a
ge re
quire
men
t is 1
7 0.
0036
0.01
29-0
.008
5(0
.004
2)(0
.003
6)(0
.007
0)M
inim
um G
ED
age
requ
irem
ent i
s 18
0.00
520.
0119
-0.0
062
(0.0
024)
(0.0
011)
(0.0
012)
Min
imum
scho
ol le
avin
g ag
e is
160.
005
0.00
320.
0067
(dum
my
for m
inim
um sc
hool
leav
ing
age
set a
bove
17
is lef
t out
)(0
.005
4)(0
.005
0)(0
.010
2)M
inim
um sc
hool
leav
ing
age
is 17
0.01
210.
0098
0.02
18(0
.007
5)(0
.008
2)(0
.012
5)O
bser
vatio
ns14
414
414
2N
umbe
r of S
tate
s24
2424
Not
e: H
uber
-Whi
te ro
bust
stan
dard
err
ors a
re in
par
enth
eses
(clu
ster
ed b
y st
ate)
. Mod
el is
estim
ated
usin
g G
LS u
sing
pane
l spe
cific
AR-
1 au
toco
rrela
tion
stru
ctur
e. St
ate
15-1
7 ye
ar o
ld p
opul
atio
ns a
re u
sed
as w
eight
s. Th
e tre
atm
ent e
ffect
repo
rted
abov
e is
the
inte
ract
ion
betw
een
the
treat
men
t sta
te d
umm
y an
d th
e po
st 1
997
dum
my,
whe
re th
e tre
atm
ent s
tate
dum
my
is eq
ual t
o 1
for t
reat
men
t sta
tes a
nd th
e po
st 1
997
dum
my
is eq
ual t
o 1
for t
he y
ears
199
8-20
00, o
ther
wise
bot
h du
mm
ies a
re e
qual
to 0
. Sta
tes w
ith fe
wer
than
two
obse
rvat
ions
per
per
iod
are
drop
ped.
Tr
eatm
ent s
tate
s are
thos
e st
ates
that
wer
e re
quire
d to
elim
inat
e th
e an
d/or
scor
e op
tion.
The
se in
clude
: LA
, MS,
NE
, NM
, TX
. Con
trol s
tate
s are
th
ose
that
alre
ady
had
high
eno
ugh
stan
dard
s by
1997
. The
se in
clude
: AR,
CA
, CO
, DE
, DC,
FL,
ID, K
Y, M
D, M
O, N
Y, N
D, O
K, O
R, S
D, U
T,
WA
, WV
, WI.
Con
trol s
tate
s dro
pped
due
to m
issin
g an
d ne
gativ
e dr
opou
t rat
es in
clude
: NJ.
No
treat
men
t sta
tes a
re d
ropp
ed.
75
Tab
leG
-32:
GL
SF
ixed
Eff
ects
Est
imat
esof
the
Eff
ect
ofth
eR
efor
mon
Dro
pou
tR
ates
Con
trol
ling
for
Age
Req
uir
emen
tsan
dU
sing
Pan
elSp
ecifi
cA
R-1
Auto
corr
elat
ion
Str
uct
ure
(Whit
es)
Ind
epen
den
t V
aria
ble
s10
th-1
2th
Gra
de
Dro
pou
t R
ate
10th
-11t
h G
rad
e D
rop
out
Rat
e12
th G
rad
e D
rop
out
Rat
e
Post
199
7 du
mm
y0.
0076
0.00
930.
0042
(0.0
017)
(0.0
019)
(0.0
035)
Scor
e op
tion
chan
ger s
tate
pos
t 199
7 (tr
eatm
ent e
ffect
)-0
.005
1-0
.000
5-0
.017
(0.0
012)
(0.0
015)
(0.0
033)
Loca
l une
mpl
oym
ent r
ate
0.00
340.
0041
-0.0
030
(0.0
010)
(0.0
015)
(0.0
016)
Log
of p
er c
apita
inco
me
-0.0
312
-0.0
251
-0.0
638
(0.0
091)
(0.0
113)
(0.0
177)
Min
imum
GE
D a
ge re
quire
men
t is 1
6 0.
0042
0.00
93-0
.005
1(d
umm
y fo
r min
imum
GE
D a
ge re
quire
men
t set
abo
ve 1
8 is
left o
ut)
(0.0
021)
(0.0
030)
(0.0
037)
Min
imum
GE
D a
ge re
quire
men
t is 1
7 0.
0049
0.00
93-0
.025
1(0
.004
4)(0
.005
5)(0
.009
5)M
inim
um G
ED
age
requ
irem
ent i
s 18
0.00
220.
0045
-0.0
033
(0.0
009)
(0.0
020)
(0.0
027)
Min
imum
scho
ol le
avin
g ag
e is
160.
0179
0.01
930.
0122
(dum
my
for m
inim
um sc
hool
leav
ing
age
set a
bove
17
is lef
t out
)(0
.009
4)(0
.011
8)(0
.007
5)M
inim
um sc
hool
leav
ing
age
is 17
0.02
110.
0228
-0.0
076
(0.0
106)
(0.0
129)
(0.0
127)
Obs
erva
tions
8483
82N
umbe
r of S
tate
s14
1414
Not
e: H
uber
-Whi
te ro
bust
stan
dard
err
ors a
re in
par
enth
eses
(clu
ster
ed b
y st
ate)
. Mod
el is
estim
ated
usin
g G
LS u
sing
pane
l spe
cific
AR-
1 au
toco
rrela
tion
stru
ctur
e. St
ate
15-1
7 ye
ar o
ld p
opul
atio
ns a
re u
sed
as w
eight
s. Th
e tre
atm
ent e
ffect
repo
rted
abov
e is
the
inte
ract
ion
betw
een
the
treat
men
t sta
te d
umm
y an
d th
e po
st 1
997
dum
my,
whe
re th
e tre
atm
ent s
tate
dum
my
is eq
ual t
o 1
for t
reat
men
t sta
tes a
nd th
e po
st 1
997
dum
my
is eq
ual t
o 1
for t
he y
ears
199
8-20
00, o
ther
wise
bot
h du
mm
ies a
re e
qual
to 0
. Sta
tes w
ith fe
wer
than
two
obse
rvat
ions
per
per
iod
for a
ny o
f the
dr
opou
t rat
e m
easu
res b
y ra
ce a
re d
ropp
ed. T
reat
men
t sta
tes a
re th
ose
stat
es th
at w
ere
requ
ired
to e
limin
ate
the
and/
or sc
ore
optio
n. T
hese
inclu
de:
LA, M
S, N
E, N
M, T
X. C
ontro
l sta
tes a
re th
ose
that
alre
ady
had
high
eno
ugh
stan
dard
s by
1997
. The
se in
clude
: AR,
CA
, CO
, DE
, DC,
FL,
ID, K
Y,
MD
, MO
, NY
, ND
, OK
, OR,
SD
, UT,
WA
, WV
, WI.
Cont
rol s
tate
s dro
pped
due
to m
issin
g an
d ne
gativ
e dr
opou
t rat
es in
clude
: AR,
ID, K
Y, M
O,
ND
, NJ,
NY
, SD
, UT,
WA
, WV
. No
treat
men
t sta
tes a
re d
ropp
ed.
76
Tab
leG
-33:
GL
SF
ixed
Eff
ects
Est
imat
esof
the
Eff
ect
ofth
eR
efor
mon
Dro
pou
tR
ates
Con
trol
ling
for
Age
Req
uir
emen
tsan
dU
sing
Pan
elSp
ecifi
cA
R-1
Auto
corr
elat
ion
Str
uct
ure
(Bla
cks)
Ind
epen
den
t V
aria
ble
s10
th-1
2th
Gra
de
Dro
pou
t R
ate
10th
-11t
h G
rad
e D
rop
out
Rat
e12
th G
rad
e D
rop
out
Rat
e
Post
199
7 du
mm
y0.
0169
0.01
140.
013
(0.0
041)
(0.0
073)
(0.0
111)
Scor
e op
tion
chan
ger s
tate
pos
t 199
7 (tr
eatm
ent e
ffect
)-0
.015
6-0
.008
9-0
.040
4(0
.003
4)(0
.005
8)(0
.009
9)Lo
cal u
nem
ploy
men
t rat
e-0
.007
5-0
.006
50.
0014
(0.0
031)
(0.0
049)
(0.0
053)
Log
of p
er c
apita
inco
me
-0.1
653
-0.1
084
-0.0
613
(0.0
278)
(0.0
415)
(0.0
540)
Min
imum
GE
D a
ge re
quire
men
t is 1
6 0.
0622
0.07
320.
0457
(dum
my
for m
inim
um G
ED
age
requ
irem
ent s
et a
bove
18
is lef
t out
)(0
.012
5)(0
.018
9)(0
.012
5)M
inim
um G
ED
age
requ
irem
ent i
s 17
0.03
090.
0401
-0.0
16(0
.020
4)(0
.031
4)(0
.018
5)M
inim
um G
ED
age
requ
irem
ent i
s 18
0.05
320.
0603
0.04
73(0
.011
3)(0
.017
7)(0
.010
6)M
inim
um sc
hool
leav
ing
age
is 16
0.04
950.
0772
0.02
92(d
umm
y fo
r min
imum
scho
ol le
avin
g ag
e se
t abo
ve 1
7 is
left o
ut)
(0.0
174)
(0.0
279)
(0.0
146)
Min
imum
scho
ol le
avin
g ag
e is
170.
0388
0.06
06-0
.008
3(0
.022
1)(0
.026
8)(0
.019
5)O
bser
vatio
ns84
8482
Num
ber o
f Sta
tes
1414
14N
ote:
Hub
er-W
hite
robu
st st
anda
rd e
rror
s are
in p
aren
thes
es (c
lust
ered
by
stat
e). M
odel
is es
timat
ed u
sing
GLS
usin
g pa
nel s
pecif
ic A
R-1
auto
corr
elatio
n st
ruct
ure.
Stat
e 15
-17
year
old
pop
ulat
ions
are
use
d as
weig
hts.
The
treat
men
t effe
ct re
porte
d ab
ove
is th
e in
tera
ctio
n be
twee
n th
e tre
atm
ent s
tate
dum
my
and
the
post
199
7 du
mm
y, w
here
the
treat
men
t sta
te d
umm
y is
equa
l to
1 fo
r tre
atm
ent s
tate
s and
the
post
199
7 du
mm
y is
equa
l to
1 fo
r the
yea
rs 1
998-
2000
, oth
erw
ise b
oth
dum
mies
are
equ
al to
0. S
tate
s with
few
er th
an tw
o ob
serv
atio
ns p
er p
erio
d fo
r any
of t
he
drop
out r
ate
mea
sure
s by
race
are
dro
pped
. Tre
atm
ent s
tate
s are
thos
e st
ates
that
wer
e re
quire
d to
elim
inat
e th
e an
d/or
scor
e op
tion.
The
se
inclu
de: L
A, M
S, N
E, N
M, T
X. C
ontro
l sta
tes a
re th
ose
that
alre
ady
had
high
eno
ugh
stan
dard
s by
1997
. The
se in
clude
: AR,
CA
, CO
, DE
, DC,
FL,
ID
, KY
, MD
, MO
, NY
, ND
, OK
, OR,
SD
, UT,
WA
, WV
, WI.
Cont
rol s
tate
s dro
pped
due
to m
issin
g an
d ne
gativ
e dr
opou
t rat
es in
clude
: AR,
ID,
KY
, MO
, ND
, NJ,
NY
, SD
, UT,
WA
, WV
. No
treat
men
t sta
tes a
re d
ropp
ed.
77
Tab
leG
-34:
GL
SF
ixed
Eff
ects
Est
imat
esof
the
Eff
ect
ofth
eR
efor
mon
Dro
pou
tR
ates
Con
trol
ling
for
Age
Req
uir
emen
tsan
dU
sing
Pan
elSp
ecifi
cA
R-1
Auto
corr
elat
ion
Str
uct
ure
(His
pan
ics)
Ind
epen
den
t V
aria
ble
s10
th-1
2th
Gra
de
Dro
pou
t R
ate
10th
-11t
h G
rad
e D
rop
out
Rat
e12
th G
rad
e D
rop
out
Rat
e
Post
199
7 du
mm
y0.
0093
0.01
0.02
44(0
.004
3)(0
.005
6)(0
.008
3)Sc
ore
optio
n ch
ange
r sta
te p
ost 1
997
(trea
tmen
t effe
ct)
-0.0
249
-0.0
115
-0.0
645
(0.0
036)
(0.0
047)
(0.0
058)
Loca
l une
mpl
oym
ent r
ate
0.01
120.
0198
-0.0
057
(0.0
022)
(0.0
030)
(0.0
035)
Log
of p
er c
apita
inco
me
-0.0
025
0.05
17-0
.153
9(0
.026
1)(0
.032
7)(0
.041
5)M
inim
um G
ED
age
requ
irem
ent i
s 16
0.02
670.
0356
0.01
27(d
umm
y fo
r min
imum
GE
D a
ge re
quire
men
t set
abo
ve 1
8 is
left o
ut)
(0.0
163)
(0.0
189)
(0.0
169)
Min
imum
GE
D a
ge re
quire
men
t is 1
7 0.
0314
0.04
790.
0047
(0.0
185)
(0.0
217)
(0.0
185)
Min
imum
GE
D a
ge re
quire
men
t is 1
8 0.
0418
0.05
770.
0173
(0.0
147)
(0.0
167)
(0.0
146)
Min
imum
scho
ol le
avin
g ag
e is
16-0
.008
6-0
.005
3-0
.019
1(d
umm
y fo
r min
imum
scho
ol le
avin
g ag
e se
t abo
ve 1
7 is
left o
ut)
(0.0
092)
(0.0
106)
(0.0
098)
Min
imum
scho
ol le
avin
g ag
e is
170.
0713
0.09
11-0
.037
4(0
.008
7)(0
.015
8)(0
.035
3)O
bser
vatio
ns84
8382
Num
ber o
f Sta
tes
1414
14N
ote:
Hub
er-W
hite
robu
st st
anda
rd e
rror
s are
in p
aren
thes
es (c
lust
ered
by
stat
e). M
odel
is es
timat
ed u
sing
GLS
usin
g pa
nel s
pecif
ic A
R-1
auto
corr
elatio
n st
ruct
ure.
Stat
e 15
-17
year
old
pop
ulat
ions
are
use
d as
weig
hts.
The
treat
men
t effe
ct re
porte
d ab
ove
is th
e in
tera
ctio
n be
twee
n th
e tre
atm
ent s
tate
dum
my
and
the
post
199
7 du
mm
y, w
here
the
treat
men
t sta
te d
umm
y is
equa
l to
1 fo
r tre
atm
ent s
tate
s and
the
post
199
7 du
mm
y is
equa
l to
1 fo
r the
yea
rs 1
998-
2000
, oth
erw
ise b
oth
dum
mies
are
equ
al to
0. S
tate
s with
few
er th
an tw
o ob
serv
atio
ns p
er p
erio
d fo
r any
of t
he
drop
out r
ate
mea
sure
s by
race
are
dro
pped
. Tre
atm
ent s
tate
s are
thos
e st
ates
that
wer
e re
quire
d to
elim
inat
e th
e an
d/or
scor
e op
tion.
The
se in
clude
: LA
, MS,
NE
, NM
, TX
. Con
trol s
tate
s are
thos
e th
at a
lread
y ha
d hi
gh e
noug
h st
anda
rds b
y 19
97. T
hese
inclu
de: A
R, C
A, C
O, D
E, D
C, F
L, ID
, KY
, M
D, M
O, N
Y, N
D, O
K, O
R, S
D, U
T, W
A, W
V, W
I. Co
ntro
l sta
tes d
ropp
ed d
ue to
miss
ing
and
nega
tive
drop
out r
ates
inclu
de: A
R, ID
, KY
, MO
, N
D, N
J, N
Y, S
D, U
T, W
A, W
V. N
o tre
atm
ent s
tate
s are
dro
pped
.
78
Tab
leG
-35:
Diff
eren
ce-i
n-D
iffer
ence
Est
imat
esof
the
Eff
ect
ofth
eR
efor
mon
Dro
pou
tR
ates
Con
trol
ling
for
Age
Req
uir
emen
tsan
dR
estr
icti
ng
Con
trol
Gro
up
toC
alif
ornia
and
Flo
rida
(Hig
hIm
mig
rant
Sta
tes)
(All
Rac
es)
Ind
epen
den
t V
aria
ble
s10
th-1
2th
Gra
de
Dro
pou
t R
ate
10th
-11t
h G
rad
e D
rop
out
Rat
e12
th G
rad
e D
rop
out
Rat
e
Scor
e op
tion
chan
ger s
tate
-0.0
16-0
.016
6-0
.013
6(0
.012
7)(0
.014
6)(0
.009
1)Sc
ore
optio
n ch
ange
r sta
te p
ost 1
997
(trea
tmen
t effe
ct)
-0.0
069
0.00
56-0
.036
5(0
.006
3)(0
.012
2)(0
.013
2)Po
st 1
997
dum
my
-0.0
086
-0.0
126
0.00
07(0
.005
5)(0
.012
1)(0
.011
8)Co
nsta
nt0.
1214
0.12
900.
1014
(0.0
111)
(0.0
132)
(0.0
050)
Obs
erva
tions
4242
42N
umbe
r of S
tate
s7
77
Not
e: H
uber
-Whi
te ro
bust
stan
dard
err
ors a
re in
par
enth
eses
(clu
ster
ed b
y st
ate)
. Mod
el is
estim
ated
usin
g O
LS. S
tate
15-
17 y
ear o
ld p
opul
atio
ns a
re
used
as w
eight
s. Th
e tre
atm
ent e
ffect
repo
rted
abov
e is
the
inte
ract
ion
betw
een
the
treat
men
t sta
te d
umm
y an
d th
e po
st 1
997
dum
my,
whe
re th
e tre
atm
ent s
tate
dum
my
is eq
ual t
o 1
for t
reat
men
t sta
tes a
nd th
e po
st 1
997
dum
my
is eq
ual t
o 1
for t
he y
ears
199
8-20
00, o
ther
wise
bot
h du
mm
ies
are
equa
l to
0. S
tate
s with
few
er th
an tw
o ob
serv
atio
ns p
er p
erio
d ar
e dr
oppe
d. T
reat
men
t sta
tes a
re th
ose
stat
es th
at w
ere
requ
ired
to e
limin
ate
the
and/
or sc
ore
optio
n. T
hese
inclu
de: L
A, M
S, N
E, N
M, T
X. C
ontro
l sta
tes a
re th
ose
that
alre
ady
had
high
eno
ugh
stan
dard
s by
1997
and
hav
e lar
ge
imm
igra
nt p
opul
atio
ns. T
hese
inclu
de: C
A a
nd F
L.
79
Tab
leG
-36:
Diff
eren
ce-i
n-D
iffer
ence
Est
imat
esof
the
Eff
ect
ofth
eR
efor
mon
Dro
pou
tR
ates
Con
trol
ling
for
Age
Req
uir
emen
tsan
dR
estr
icti
ng
Con
trol
Gro
up
toC
alif
ornia
and
Flo
rida
(Hig
hIm
mig
rant
Sta
tes)
(Whit
es)
Ind
epen
den
t V
aria
ble
s10
th-1
2th
Gra
de
Dro
pou
t R
ate
10th
-11t
h G
rad
e D
rop
out
Rat
e12
th G
rad
e D
rop
out
Rat
e
Scor
e op
tion
chan
ger s
tate
-0.0
216
-0.0
192
-0.0
26(0
.020
5)(0
.025
1)(0
.009
9)Sc
ore
optio
n ch
ange
r sta
te p
ost 1
997
(trea
tmen
t effe
ct)
-0.0
020.
0043
-0.0
146
(0.0
038)
(0.0
108)
(0.0
148)
Post
199
7 du
mm
y-0
.007
2-0
.008
0-0
.006
5(0
.003
7)(0
.010
8)(0
.014
2)Co
nsta
nt0.
1008
0.10
770.
0830
(0.0
193)
(0.0
238)
(0.0
073)
Obs
erva
tions
4242
42N
umbe
r of S
tate
s7
77
Not
e: H
uber
-Whi
te ro
bust
stan
dard
err
ors a
re in
par
enth
eses
(clu
ster
ed b
y st
ate)
. Mod
el is
estim
ated
usin
g O
LS. S
tate
15-
17 y
ear o
ld p
opul
atio
ns a
re
used
as w
eight
s. Th
e tre
atm
ent e
ffect
repo
rted
abov
e is
the
inte
ract
ion
betw
een
the
treat
men
t sta
te d
umm
y an
d th
e po
st 1
997
dum
my,
whe
re th
e tre
atm
ent s
tate
dum
my
is eq
ual t
o 1
for t
reat
men
t sta
tes a
nd th
e po
st 1
997
dum
my
is eq
ual t
o 1
for t
he y
ears
199
8-20
00, o
ther
wise
bot
h du
mm
ies
are
equa
l to
0. S
tate
s with
few
er th
an tw
o ob
serv
atio
ns p
er p
erio
d ar
e dr
oppe
d. T
reat
men
t sta
tes a
re th
ose
stat
es th
at w
ere
requ
ired
to e
limin
ate
the
and/
or sc
ore
optio
n. T
hese
inclu
de: L
A, M
S, N
E, N
M, T
X. C
ontro
l sta
tes a
re th
ose
that
alre
ady
had
high
eno
ugh
stan
dard
s by
1997
and
hav
e lar
ge
imm
igra
nt p
opul
atio
ns. T
hese
inclu
de: C
A a
nd F
L.
80
Tab
leG
-37:
Diff
eren
ce-i
n-D
iffer
ence
Est
imat
esof
the
Eff
ect
ofth
eR
efor
mon
Dro
pou
tR
ates
Con
trol
ling
for
Age
Req
uir
emen
tsan
dR
estr
icti
ng
Con
trol
Gro
up
toC
alif
ornia
and
Flo
rida
(Hig
hIm
mig
rant
Sta
tes)
(Bla
cks)
Ind
epen
den
t V
aria
ble
s10
th-1
2th
Gra
de
Dro
pou
t R
ate
10th
-11t
h G
rad
e D
rop
out
Rat
e12
th G
rad
e D
rop
out
Rat
e
Scor
e op
tion
chan
ger s
tate
-0.0
31-0
.041
1-0
.001
(0.0
104)
(0.0
071)
(0.0
223)
Scor
e op
tion
chan
ger s
tate
pos
t 199
7 (tr
eatm
ent e
ffect
)-0
.011
90.
0003
-0.0
43(0
.015
5)(0
.026
6)(0
.026
7)Po
st 1
997
dum
my
-0.0
038
-0.0
065
0.00
35(0
.013
6)(0
.026
1)(0
.022
3)Co
nsta
nt0.
1707
0.18
120.
1398
(0.0
098)
(0.0
058)
(0.0
212)
Obs
erva
tions
4242
42N
umbe
r of S
tate
s7
77
Not
e: H
uber
-Whi
te ro
bust
stan
dard
err
ors a
re in
par
enth
eses
(clu
ster
ed b
y st
ate)
. Mod
el is
estim
ated
usin
g O
LS. S
tate
15-
17 y
ear o
ld p
opul
atio
ns a
re
used
as w
eight
s. Th
e tre
atm
ent e
ffect
repo
rted
abov
e is
the
inte
ract
ion
betw
een
the
treat
men
t sta
te d
umm
y an
d th
e po
st 1
997
dum
my,
whe
re th
e tre
atm
ent s
tate
dum
my
is eq
ual t
o 1
for t
reat
men
t sta
tes a
nd th
e po
st 1
997
dum
my
is eq
ual t
o 1
for t
he y
ears
199
8-20
00, o
ther
wise
bot
h du
mm
ies
are
equa
l to
0. S
tate
s with
few
er th
an tw
o ob
serv
atio
ns p
er p
erio
d ar
e dr
oppe
d. T
reat
men
t sta
tes a
re th
ose
stat
es th
at w
ere
requ
ired
to e
limin
ate
the
and/
or sc
ore
optio
n. T
hese
inclu
de: L
A, M
S, N
E, N
M, T
X. C
ontro
l sta
tes a
re th
ose
that
alre
ady
had
high
eno
ugh
stan
dard
s by
1997
and
hav
e lar
ge
imm
igra
nt p
opul
atio
ns. T
hese
inclu
de: C
A a
nd F
L.
81
Tab
leG
-38:
Diff
eren
ce-i
n-D
iffer
ence
Est
imat
esof
the
Eff
ect
ofth
eR
efor
mon
Dro
pou
tR
ates
Con
trol
ling
for
Age
Req
uir
emen
tsan
dR
estr
icti
ng
Con
trol
Gro
up
toC
alif
ornia
and
Flo
rida
(Hig
hIm
mig
rant
Sta
tes)
(His
pan
ics)
Ind
epen
den
t V
aria
ble
s10
th-1
2th
Gra
de
Dro
pou
t R
ate
10th
-11t
h G
rad
e D
rop
out
Rat
e12
th G
rad
e D
rop
out
Rat
e
Scor
e op
tion
chan
ger s
tate
-0.0
189
-0.0
171
-0.0
214
(0.0
076)
(0.0
095)
(0.0
055)
Scor
e op
tion
chan
ger s
tate
pos
t 199
7 (tr
eatm
ent e
ffect
)-0
.016
0.00
53-0
.072
5(0
.003
7)(0
.006
8)(0
.005
9)Po
st 1
997
dum
my
-0.0
161
-0.0
246
0.00
79(0
.003
6)(0
.006
3)(0
.004
3)Co
nsta
nt0.
1604
0.16
930.
1351
(0.0
024)
(0.0
014)
(0.0
050)
Obs
erva
tions
4242
42N
umbe
r of S
tate
s7
77
Not
e: H
uber
-Whi
te ro
bust
stan
dard
err
ors a
re in
par
enth
eses
(clu
ster
ed b
y st
ate)
. Mod
el is
estim
ated
usin
g O
LS. S
tate
15-
17 y
ear o
ld p
opul
atio
ns a
re
used
as w
eight
s. Th
e tre
atm
ent e
ffect
repo
rted
abov
e is
the
inte
ract
ion
betw
een
the
treat
men
t sta
te d
umm
y an
d th
e po
st 1
997
dum
my,
whe
re th
e tre
atm
ent s
tate
dum
my
is eq
ual t
o 1
for t
reat
men
t sta
tes a
nd th
e po
st 1
997
dum
my
is eq
ual t
o 1
for t
he y
ears
199
8-20
00, o
ther
wise
bot
h du
mm
ies
are
equa
l to
0. S
tate
s with
few
er th
an tw
o ob
serv
atio
ns p
er p
erio
d ar
e dr
oppe
d. T
reat
men
t sta
tes a
re th
ose
stat
es th
at w
ere
requ
ired
to e
limin
ate
the
and/
or sc
ore
optio
n. T
hese
inclu
de: L
A, M
S, N
E, N
M, T
X. C
ontro
l sta
tes a
re th
ose
that
alre
ady
had
high
eno
ugh
stan
dard
s by
1997
and
hav
e lar
ge
imm
igra
nt p
opul
atio
ns. T
hese
inclu
de: C
A a
nd F
L.
82
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