targets for resilient cities

Kym LennoxFebruary 2011Urban Transport World 2011 – Targets for Resilient Cities

Urban Transport World 2011Targets for Resilient CitiesApproaches for integrating land use and transport planning

Presented by Kym LennoxFebruary 2011

Kym LennoxNovember 2010NSW Transport Infrastructure Summit 2010 – Enabling the Private Sector

Outline

IntroductionAn unsustainable futureAn alternativeTargetsFrameworkConclusion

Kym LennoxNovember 2010NSW Transport Infrastructure Summit 2010 – Enabling the Private Sector

Kym LennoxNovember 2010NSW Transport Infrastructure Summit 2010 – Enabling the Private Sector

Introduction

Resilient city• Sustainable in its political economy

• Capable of handling economic and environmental shocks

• Capable of timely response to changes in the underlyingassumptions of the sustainability

Resilience is a vision not a target

Kym LennoxNovember 2010NSW Transport Infrastructure Summit 2010 – Enabling the Private Sector

Introduction

Sustainable Political Economy• Constantly improving productivity

• A medium-to-long term structurally balanced publicsector budget

• Institutional stability

The key is investing in the right social andphysical infrastructure at the right time

Kym LennoxNovember 2010NSW Transport Infrastructure Summit 2010 – Enabling the Private Sector

An unsustainable future

Not planning for the known is unsustainable• Transport will remain oil dependant beyond 2050

• Development land will be progressively more expensive

• The developed world will have a median age over 50

• The price of energy will more than double in real terms

• The population will not stabilise before 2050• The operational life of today’s planning extends past 2050

Kym LennoxNovember 2010NSW Transport Infrastructure Summit 2010 – Enabling the Private Sector

An unsustainable future

Kym LennoxNovember 2010NSW Transport Infrastructure Summit 2010 – Enabling the Private Sector

An unsustainable future

Kym LennoxNovember 2010NSW Transport Infrastructure Summit 2010 – Enabling the Private Sector

Introduction

Sydney’s last 40year

performance inTransport

Infrastructure(~$18B 2010$)

Kym LennoxNovember 2010NSW Transport Infrastructure Summit 2010 – Enabling the Private Sector

An unsustainable future

Over the past 40 years less than $200 per year per head hasbeen invested into public transport infrastructure in Sydney.

Up to 1% of GDP will be lost every year to carpark infrastructure investment

The cost of the infrastructure to park the additional vehiclefleet in 2050 will cost at least $400 per year per head for thenext 40 years and consume up to 100 km2 of green field landacross Greater Sydney.

Kym LennoxNovember 2010NSW Transport Infrastructure Summit 2010 – Enabling the Private Sector

An alternative

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Switzerland Japan Germany United Kingdom China Australia United States

per Capita Rail passenger Km

Kym LennoxNovember 2010NSW Transport Infrastructure Summit 2010 – Enabling the Private Sector

Kym LennoxNovember 2010NSW Transport Infrastructure Summit 2010 – Enabling the Private Sector

Kym LennoxNovember 2010NSW Transport Infrastructure Summit 2010 – Enabling the Private Sector

An alternative

Land use and transport planning implications• Existing housing stock ill suited to future needs

• Planning controls need to respond to the context of thesite not to barriers and boundaries

• Strategic opportunity and whole of government cost andsocial benefit needs to inform the decision process

Hiding from the future will not stop it occurring.

Kym LennoxNovember 2010NSW Transport Infrastructure Summit 2010 – Enabling the Private Sector

Kym LennoxNovember 2010NSW Transport Infrastructure Summit 2010 – Enabling the Private Sector

If this is whatSydney needs,how will it befunded, what

land useplanning musthave occurred

and whattriggers

implementationstages.

Kym LennoxNovember 2010NSW Transport Infrastructure Summit 2010 – Enabling the Private Sector

Targets

What happens if…• Social values for home ownership change

• Public transport demand grows twice as fast

• Carbon is priced at $100 per tonne in 2020• The next 20 years is a second baby boom

Responding requires transparency andconsistency in policy

Kym LennoxNovember 2010NSW Transport Infrastructure Summit 2010 – Enabling the Private Sector

Framework – The 4Es

Express the targets

Establish the external benefits

Embed the role of the Stakeholders

Ensure Certainty

Kym LennoxNovember 2010NSW Transport Infrastructure Summit 2010 – Enabling the Private Sector

Framework

Express the targets

Government policy should define and express targets thatover time shift land-use to limit the resource intensity of thetransport demand.

Targets must be measurable and aspirational

Kym LennoxNovember 2010NSW Transport Infrastructure Summit 2010 – Enabling the Private Sector

Framework

Establish the external benefits

Policy and the public sector must establish the externalbenefits and clearly define the roles of stakeholders in anytarget.

A clear role for government provides a certainty of theeconomics and defines their participation as regulator and

financial contributor.

Kym LennoxNovember 2010NSW Transport Infrastructure Summit 2010 – Enabling the Private Sector

Framework

Embed the role of the Stakeholders

Clarity is key to risk taking. Roles can not be defined by whatanother stakeholder is not doing. The policy and regulatoryframework must clearly express and embed the roles andtheir communication obligations.

What is: the role of each department? The role of council?The communication to the community? The controls to

ensure achieving the strategic goal?

Kym LennoxNovember 2010NSW Transport Infrastructure Summit 2010 – Enabling the Private Sector

Framework

Ensure Certainty

Certainty connects plans with implementation. Funding willnot be maintained without certainty. Certainty is not rigidityin the face of a changing world, it is keeping to the strategicgoal.

Transparency and participation in the decision makingprocess provides certainty through predictable change.

Kym LennoxNovember 2010NSW Transport Infrastructure Summit 2010 – Enabling the Private Sector

Conclusion

Sustainability is achievable only through aninstitutional focus on the structure of

the urban form and transport

Kym LennoxFebruary 2011Urban Transport World 2011 – Targets for Resilient Cities

Kym Lennox

Australian Practice Lead

The Tipping Point Institute

Level 1, 341 George Street

Sydney NSW 2000

E: kym.lennox@ttpi.org

P: 02 9210 4642

W: www.ttpi.org

Questions

Kym LennoxFebruary 2011Urban Transport World 2011 – Targets for Resilient Cities

About the Tipping Point InstituteThe Tipping Point Institute (TTPI) is an established consultancy that focuses on developing anddisseminating responses to the carbon constrained reality of the 21st century. TTPI provides its clientsclarity and context for their participation in a sustainable future. TTPI’s focus is to:• define the targets through what we term ‘carbon economics’;• deliver outcomes with best practice in infrastructure optimisation and planning;• support public sector procurement and tender responses; and• keep on target through programme governance.

Society and the economy are at a tipping point such that the consequences of people’s actions andinactions will ripple through many generations to follow. TTPI seeks to be an active participant asAustralia and the world manage the next stage towards a sustainable future.

The organisation’s strategic goals are therefore to:1. Integrate sustainability and consideration of carbon constraints into the decision processes of

Government, the private sector and every individual.2. Lead and disseminate a structured leadership that is apolitical.3. Promote and improve best practice methods that address the complexity of today’s challenges.