task 4: collect high- resolution pv data summary of ... 24, 2015 · june 2015 7.3 7.2 6.4 7.3 6.8...
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© 2015 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Chris TruebloodCameron Riley
David Freestate
24 July 2015
California Solar InitiativeScreening Distribution Feeders:
Alternatives to the 15% Rule
Task 4: Collect High-Resolution PV Data
Summary of Results
2© 2015 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Presentation ContentsTask 4: Collect High-Resolution PV Data
Overview and Sites Monitored
Solar Radiation Characteristics
Energy-Based Performance
Power Output Characteristics
Variability
– Establishing Rate-Rate Datasets
– Ramp Rates for Individual Sites
– Ramp Rates for Site Clusters
3© 2015 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Objectives and OverviewTask 4: Collect High-Resolution PV Data
The purpose of this task is to collect high-resolution, time-series solar data that can be used to define the PV output to understand the impacts of high penetration when performing scenario analysis. In parallel to the modeling efforts, high-resolution solar data was collected to define the PV
output to understand the impacts of high penetration when performing scenario analysis. In order to understand the specific effects of PV output variability, high-resolution solar
output data was collected utilizing single-module solar monitoring systems mounted on utility poles to capture time-series measurements of actual PV output and solar resource. In total, 20 monitoring systems have been installed across selected simulation feeders. This
ensures data collected accounts for the spatial relationships of measuring points, as well as, the time synchronization of PV power into the grid to account for the diversity in distributed PV outputs. The monitoring units include an ac power meter to measure PV system output (real and
reactive power, voltages, and currents) and a pyranometer to measure plane-of-array solar irradiance. Data was recorded at 1-second intervals to adequately capture variability of solar caused by cloud movements. Monitoring systems in the San Diego area were deactivated prior to 2015, and data from
2014 was used for those sites’ analyses (for other sites, 2015 data was used). Solar measurement data was analyzed for the 6-month period January-June.
4© 2015 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Single-Module PV Monitoring SystemPV module, pole-mount frame, and monitoring box are pre-assembled
Front View
Top Perspective BottomPerspective
Side View
PV Module
Frame
MonitoringBox
5© 2015 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Single-Module Solar Monitoring SystemsInstalled in California on utility poles
6© 2015 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Single-Module Solar Monitoring SystemsInstalled in California on utility poles
7© 2015 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Solar Radiation Characteristics
California Solar InitiativeScreening Distribution Feeders: Alternatives to the 15% Rule
Task 4: Collect High-Resolution PV Data
8© 2015 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Average Daily Insolation (kWh/m2/day) – Jan. to June
Westley
6.03
Shafter
5.89
Hammock
6.02
Coverfield
5.45
Fallbrook
5.60
Vine
6.00
Valley Center
6.03
Fallbrook and Valley Center data are from 2014; all other sites are from 2015
9© 2015 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Categories for Daily Variability ConditionsSandia’s variability index (VI), clearness index (CI) to classify days
Clear Sky POA IrradianceMeasured POA Irradiance
High
Moderate
MildOvercast
Clear
VI < 2CI ≥ 0.5
VI < 2CI ≤ 0.5
2 ≤ VI < 5
5 ≤ VI < 10
VI > 10
10© 2015 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Daily Variability Conditions – Jan. to June
OvercastClearMildModerateHigh
Valley Center data are from 2014; all other sites are from 2015
5%
39%
22%
23%
12%Westley
6%
34%
22%
22%
16%
Shafter
3%
25%
31%
28%
12%
Coverfield
3%
38%
21%
20%
18%
Hammock
2%
40%
21%
22%
15%
Vine
1%
34%
24%
23%
19%
Valley Center
11© 2015 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Overcast Clear Mild Moderate High
1 2 3
4 5 6 7 8 9 10
11 12 13 14 15 16 17
18 19 20 21 22 23 24
25 26 27 28 29 30 31
Thu Fri SatSun Mon Tue Wed
January 2015
5.5 5.3 5.3
4.0 4.3 5.2 5.3 3.7 2.0 3.8
4.7 5.2 5.6 1.3 0.9 1.7 0.5
0.9 0.6 2.2 4.9 1.4 4.7 0.9
2.9 3.8 1.8 5.5 5.8 6.0 6.5
Solar Resource Calendar – Westley (January 2015)Calendar based on irradiance, 1-min averages
Modules slightly favor southwestPossible morning fog
Overcast Clear Mild Moderate High
12© 2015 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Solar Resource Calendar – Westley (June 2015)Calendar based on irradiance, 1-min averages
Overcast Clear Mild Moderate High
1 2 3 4 5 6
7 8 9 10 11 12 13
14 15 16 17 18 19 20
21 22 23 24 25 26 27
28 29 30
Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri SatSun
June 2015
7.3 7.2 6.4 7.3 6.8 7.3
7.3 7.3 4.3 3.1 7.2 7.3 7.3
7.5 7.6 7.4 7.5 7.6 7.5 7.2
7.5 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.3 7.2 6.4
7.0 7.2 6.9
Overcast Clear Mild Moderate High
13© 2015 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Solar Resource Calendar – Shafter (January 2015)Calendar based on irradiance, 1-min averages
Overcast Clear Mild Moderate High
1 2 3
4 5 6 7 8 9 10
11 12 13 14 15 16 17
18 19 20 21 22 23 24
25 26 27 28 29 30 31
Thu Fri SatSun Mon Tue Wed
January 2015
5.4 5.3 5.1
4.3 4.8 5.0 4.7 4.1 3.1 2.3
1.3 1.9 3.4 3.8 2.4 3.2 0.9
1.3 0.7 0.6 0.8 2.8 2.4 1.1
2.6 1.2 4.8 1.6 2.9 3.0 4.4
Overcast Clear Mild Moderate High
14© 2015 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Solar Resource Calendar – Shafter (June 2015)Calendar based on irradiance, 1-min averages
Overcast Clear Mild Moderate High
1 2 3 4 5 6
7 8 9 10 11 12 13
14 15 16 17 18 19 20
21 22 23 24 25 26 27
28 29 30
Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri SatSun
June 2015
7.8 7.8 7.8 7.9 7.5 7.6
7.7 7.8 1.3 7.3 7.5 6.4 7.5
7.9 8.0 8.0 8.0 7.9 8.1 8.0
7.9 8.0 7.6 7.8 7.8 7.6 5.5
6.0 6.3 7.5
Overcast Clear Mild Moderate High
15© 2015 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Solar Resource Calendar – Hammock (January 2015)Calendar based on irradiance, 1-min averages
Overcast Clear Mild Moderate High
1 2 3
4 5 6 7 8 9 10
11 12 13 14 15 16 17
18 19 20 21 22 23 24
25 26 27 28 29 30 31
Thu Fri SatSun Mon Tue Wed
January 2015
6.2 6.1 5.9
5.4 6.0 6.5 5.0 4.5 1.3 2.3
1.0 4.4 6.2 6.4 6.5 5.9 6.5
4.8 6.0 4.0 6.5 4.9 6.7 6.7
4.5 2.6 5.9 4.0 1.8 2.7 5.1
Overcast Clear Mild Moderate High
16© 2015 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Solar Resource Calendar – Hammock (June 2015)Calendar based on irradiance, 1-min averages
Overcast Clear Mild Moderate High
1 2 3 4 5 6
7 8 9 10 11 12 13
14 15 16 17 18 19 20
21 22 23 24 25 26 27
28 29 30
Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri SatSun
June 2015
7.0 7.3 6.3 4.7 6.4 6.7
7.2 6.8 3.2 7.0 6.0 6.2 5.8
6.9 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.3 7.2 7.2
7.0 7.2 7.0 7.1 7.0 6.1 4.4
4.4 5.3 5.3
Overcast Clear Mild Moderate High
17© 2015 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Solar Resource Calendar – Coverfield (January 2015)Calendar based on irradiance, 1-min averages
Overcast Clear Mild Moderate High
1 2 3
4 5 6 7 8 9 10
11 12 13 14 15 16 17
18 19 20 21 22 23 24
25 26 27 28 29 30 31
Thu Fri SatSun Mon Tue Wed
January 2015
5.1 5.1 4.9
4.7 5.2 5.3 5.1 3.9 3.5 0.9
1.3 3.8 4.6 5.4 5.4 5.0 5.3
4.2 4.8 1.1 4.8 4.5 5.6 5.6
5.3 2.3 5.2 2.8 1.8 2.0 4.9
Modules slightly favor southeast
Overcast Clear Mild Moderate High
18© 2015 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Solar Resource Calendar – Coverfield (June 2015)Calendar based on irradiance, 1-min averages
Overcast Clear Mild Moderate High
1 2 3 4 5 6
7 8 9 10 11 12 13
14 15 16 17 18 19 20
21 22 23 24 25 26 27
28 29 30
Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri SatSun
June 2015
5.9 6.4 3.3 3.0 5.1 6.3
6.6 6.1 1.9 2.3 4.1 3.3 2.8
4.3 4.6 4.1 5.9 6.1 7.2 7.5
7.0 7.6 7.4 7.5 7.6 4.7 4.2
6.3 6.0 7.1
Possible morning fog
Overcast Clear Mild Moderate High
19© 2015 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Solar Resource Calendar – Vine (January 2015)Calendar based on irradiance, 1-min averages
Overcast Clear Mild Moderate High
1 2 3
4 5 6 7 8 9 10
11 12 13 14 15 16 17
18 19 20 21 22 23 24
25 26 27 28 29 30 31
Thu Fri SatSun Mon Tue Wed
January 2015
6.0 6.0 5.8
5.5 6.1 6.4 5.5 3.7 2.1 3.7
0.7 3.4 5.8 6.4 6.3 5.7 6.4
4.3 5.8 4.7 5.4 4.6 6.6 6.5
3.2 2.0 5.4 3.7 1.0 1.7 5.4
Minor evening shading
Overcast Clear Mild Moderate High
20© 2015 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Solar Resource Calendar – Vine (June 2015)Calendar based on irradiance, 1-min averages
Overcast Clear Mild Moderate High
1 2 3 4 5 6
7 8 9 10 11 12 13
14 15 16 17 18 19 20
21 22 23 24 25 26 27
28 29 30
Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri SatSun
June 2015
6.7 7.3 6.6 4.2 6.7 6.7
7.1 7.1 3.9 6.7 5.7 5.2 5.0
6.6 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.3 7.3
7.0 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 5.7 3.8
4.6 5.0 4.5
Occasional morning fog
Overcast Clear Mild Moderate High
21© 2015 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Solar Resource Calendar – Fallbrook (January 2014)Calendar based on irradiance, 1-min averages
Overcast Clear Mild Moderate High
1 2 3
4 5 6 7 8 9 10
11 12 13 14 15 16 17
18 19 20 21 22 23 24
25 26 27 28 29 30 31
Thu Fri SatSun Mon Tue Wed
5.6 5.6 5.1
4.5 5.8 5.8 4.1 5.5 3.9 5.5
5.7 4.6 6.0 5.8 6.0 6.0 6.0
5.5 4.6 5.9 1.9 5.9 5.4 1.6
5.2 3.1 5.2 5.3 5.5 1.0 3.6
January *
Afternoon shading
* 2014 data used as proxy for 2015 calendar
Overcast Clear Mild Moderate High
22© 2015 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Solar Resource Calendar – Fallbrook (June 2014)Calendar based on irradiance, 1-min averages
Overcast Clear Mild Moderate High
1 2 3 4 5 6
7 8 9 10 11 12 13
14 15 16 17 18 19 20
21 22 23 24 25 26 27
28 29 30
Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri SatSun
6.8 6.3 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.2
6.0 6.3 5.9 4.3 6.5 6.5 6.4
6.5 6.2 6.5 6.3 6.5 6.3 6.3
6.2 6.4 5.9 6.2 5.4 5.4 5.9
5.9 6.1 5.9
June *
* 2014 data used as proxy for 2015 calendar
Occasional morning fog
Overcast Clear Mild Moderate High
23© 2015 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Solar Resource Calendar – Valley Center (January 2014)Calendar based on irradiance, 1-min averages
Overcast Clear Mild Moderate High
1 2 3
4 5 6 7 8 9 10
11 12 13 14 15 16 17
18 19 20 21 22 23 24
25 26 27 28 29 30 31
Thu Fri SatSun Mon Tue Wed
5.8 5.6 5.1
4.4 6.0 6.0 4.4 5.7 4.5 5.7
5.7 5.0 6.1 6.1 6.2 6.1 6.2
5.3 4.0 6.0 2.4 5.9 5.3 1.8
5.5 3.3 5.6 5.7 6.0 3.4 2.3
January *
Minor morning shading
* 2014 data used as proxy for 2015 calendar
Overcast Clear Mild Moderate High
24© 2015 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Overcast Clear Mild Moderate High
1 2 3 4 5 6
7 8 9 10 11 12 13
14 15 16 17 18 19 20
21 22 23 24 25 26 27
28 29 30
Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri SatSun
7.3 7.1 7.3 6.6 7.2 7.1
7.0 7.0 6.9 6.5 7.0 7.0 7.0
7.1 6.7 7.0 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.8
6.7 7.0 6.9 6.8 6.7 6.1 6.8
6.7 6.7 6.8
June *
Solar Resource Calendar – Valley Center (June 2014)Calendar based on irradiance, 1-min averages
* 2014 data used as proxy for 2015 calendar
Overcast Clear Mild Moderate High
25© 2015 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Energy-Based Performance
California Solar InitiativeScreening Distribution Feeders: Alternatives to the 15% Rule
Task 4: Collect High-Resolution PV Data
26© 2015 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Capacity Factor – Jan. to June
0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3
Westley
Shafter
Hammock
Coverfield
Vine
Fallbrook
Valley Center
Capacity Factor
Fallbrook and Valley Center data are from 2014; all other sites are from 2015
27© 2015 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Capacity Factor Duration – Jan. to June
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 1000
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
Percentage of 181 Days (Jan-Jun)
Cap
acity
Fac
tor
WestleyShafterHammockCoverfieldVineFallbrookValley Center
Fallbrook and Valley Center data are from 2014; all other sites are from 2015
28© 2015 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1
Westley
Shafter
Hammock
Coverfield
Vine
Fallbrook
Valley Center
Performance Ratio
Performance Ratio – Jan. to JuneFallbrook and Valley Center data are from 2014;
all other sites are from 2015
29© 2015 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Performance Ratio Duration – Jan. to June
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 1000.75
0.8
0.85
0.9
0.95
1
1.05
1.1
1.15
1.2
Percentage of 181 Days (Jan-Jun)
Perf
orm
ance
Rat
io
WestleyShafterHammockCoverfieldVineFallbrookValley Center
Fallbrook and Valley Center data are from 2014; all other sites are from 2015
30© 2015 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Power Output Characteristics
California Solar InitiativeScreening Distribution Feeders: Alternatives to the 15% Rule
Task 4: Collect High-Resolution PV Data
31© 2015 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Power Duration Curve – Jan. to June
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 1000
20
40
60
80
100
120
Percentage of 2290 Daytime Hours (%)
Pow
er(%
of R
atin
g)
WestleyShafterHammockCoverfieldVineFallbrookValley Center
Fallbrook and Valley Center data are from 2014; all other sites are from 2015
32© 2015 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Monthly Near-Maximum Powers – Jan. to June
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun75
80
85
90
95
100
Month
Pow
er (%
of R
atin
g)
WestleyShafterHammockCoverfieldVineFallbrookValley Center
Fallbrook and Valley Center data are from 2014; all other sites are from 2015
33© 2015 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Pow
er (%
of R
atin
g)
Local Time (Hour of Day)
0
20
40
60
80
100
6 9 12 15 180
20
40
60
80
100
6 9 12 15 18
6 9 12 15 18
6 9 12 15 18
Max Energy Day
Min Energy Day
Median Energy Day
Sample Power Output Profiles – Jan. to June15-minute averages
Westley Shafter Hammock
Vine Fallbrook Valley Center Coverfield
Fallbrook and Valley Center data are from 2014; all other sites are from 2015
Low max energy caused by line shading
34© 2015 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Pow
er (%
of R
atin
g)
Local Time (Hour of Day)
0
20
40
60
80
100
6 9 12 15 180
20
40
60
80
100
6 9 12 15 18
6 9 12 15 18
6 9 12 15 18
Max/Min
Median
Inner Quartile
Statistical Distribution of Power – Jan. to June1-Hour Averages
Westley Shafter Hammock
Vine Fallbrook Valley Center Coverfield
Fallbrook and Valley Center data are from 2014; all other sites are from 2015
35© 2015 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Variability: Establishing Ramp-Rate Datasets
California Solar InitiativeScreening Distribution Feeders: Alternatives to the 15% Rule
Task 4: Collect High-Resolution PV Data
36© 2015 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
How often do Ramping Events Occur? Based on 2290 Hours
10 sec 1 min 10 min 1 hr
99.99th 82.4 13.7 1.37 0.229
99.9th 824 137 13.7 2.29
99th 8,244 1,374 137 22.9
95th 41,220 6,870 687 115
90th 82,440 13,740 1,374 229
PercentileTime Interval
37© 2015 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Sample One-Day Power Output Profile – WestleyAfternoon Clouds
38© 2015 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Ramp Rate Distribution – WestleyJan. to June 2015
-100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 1000
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
Rel
ativ
e Fr
eque
ncy
(%)
Change in Power (% of Rating)
1 hour10 min1 min30 sec10 sec5 sec
39© 2015 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Shading Examples – FallbrookJan. to June 2014
(Apr 15, 2015)... 09:00 12:00 15:00 18:00 21:00
Local Time
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
Nor
mal
ized
Pow
er a
nd Ir
radi
ance
Fallbrook
Power
Irradiance
40© 2015 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Shading Examples – Valley Center
(May 26, 2015)... 09:00 12:00 15:00 18:00
Local Time
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
Nor
mal
ized
Pow
er a
nd Ir
radi
ance
Power
Irradiance
41© 2015 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Shading Examples – Vine
(Jan 06, 2015)... 12:00 15:00
Local Time
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
Nor
mal
ized
Pow
er a
nd Ir
radi
ance
Vine
Power
Irradiance
42© 2015 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Variability: Ramp-Rates for Individual Sites
California Solar InitiativeScreening Distribution Feeders: Alternatives to the 15% Rule
Task 4: Collect High-Resolution PV Data
43© 2015 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Ramp Rate Percentiles – WestleyJan. to June 2015
Pow
erIrr
adia
nce
Pow
erIrr
adia
nce
Pow
erIrr
adia
nce
Pow
erIrr
adia
nce
Pow
erIrr
adia
nce
Pow
erIrr
adia
nce
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Cha
nge
in M
easu
red
Valu
e (%
of R
atin
g)
99.99th99.9th99th95th90th
5 sec 10 sec 30 sec 1 min 10 min 1 hour
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Ramp Rate Interval
44© 2015 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Ramp Rate Percentiles – FallbrookJan. to June 2014
Pow
erIrr
adia
nce
Pow
erIrr
adia
nce
Pow
erIrr
adia
nce
Pow
erIrr
adia
nce
Pow
erIrr
adia
nce
Pow
erIrr
adia
nce
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Cha
nge
in M
easu
red
Valu
es (%
of R
atin
g)
99.99th99.9th99th95th90th
5 sec 10 sec 30 sec 1 min 10 min 1 hour
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Ramp Rate Interval
45© 2015 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Ramp Rate Percentiles – Valley CenterJan. to June 2014
Pow
erIrr
adia
nce
Pow
erIrr
adia
nce
Pow
erIrr
adia
nce
Pow
erIrr
adia
nce
Pow
erIrr
adia
nce
Pow
erIrr
adia
nce
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Cha
nge
in M
easu
red
Valu
e (%
of R
atin
g)
99.99th99.9th99th95th90th
5 sec 10 sec 30 sec 1 min 10 min 1 hour
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Ramp Rate Interval
46© 2015 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Ramp Rate Percentiles – VineJan. to June 2015
Pow
erIrr
adia
nce
Pow
erIrr
adia
nce
Pow
erIrr
adia
nce
Pow
erIrr
adia
nce
Pow
erIrr
adia
nce
Pow
erIrr
adia
nce
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Cha
nge
in M
easu
red
Valu
e (%
of R
atin
g)
99.99th99.9th99th95th90th
5 sec 10 sec 30 sec 1 min 10 min 1 hour
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Ramp Rate Interval
47© 2015 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Variability: Ramp-Rates for Site Clusters
California Solar InitiativeScreening Distribution Feeders: Alternatives to the 15% Rule
Task 4: Collect High-Resolution PV Data
48© 2015 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Final Data Set Clusters
StatewideCluster
RegionalCluster
FeederCluster
Westley CA - -
Shafter CA - -
Coverfield CA Los Angeles -
Oak Glen CA Los Angeles -
Hammock CA Los Angeles -
Vine CA Los Angeles -
Ramona #5 - San Diego Ramona
Ramona #10 - San Diego Ramona
Ramona #11 - San Diego Ramona
Ramona #12 - San Diego Ramona
Valley Center #1 - San Diego Valley Center
Valley Center #2 - San Diego Valley Center
Valley Center #8 - San Diego Valley Center
Valley Center #13 - San Diego Valley Center
49© 2015 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Ramp Rate Percentiles – California ClusterJan. to June 2015
5 sec 10 sec 30 sec 1 min 10 min 1 hour0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Cha
nge
in P
ower
(% o
f Rat
ing)
Ramp Rate Percentile
99.99th99.9th99th95th90th
50© 2015 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Changes in Power vs. Time of Day – California ClusterJan. to June 2015, 1-min intervals
Cha
nge
in P
ower
(% o
f Rat
ing)
Hour of Day
0
20
40
60
80
100
6 9 12 15 180
20
40
60
80
100
6 9 12 15 18
6 9 12 15 18
99.99th99.9th99th95th90th
Westley Shafter Coverfield
Oak Glen Hammock Vine
51© 2015 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Ramp Rate Duration Profile – California ClusterJan. to June, 1-min intervals
Cha
nge
in P
ower
(% o
f Rat
ing)
0.01 0.1 1.0 10 1000
20
40
60
80
100
0.01 0.1 1.0 10 1000
20
40
60
80
100
0.01 0.1 1.0 10 1000
20
40
60
80
100
0.01 0.1 1.0 10 1000
20
40
60
80
100
0.01 0.1 1.0 10 1000
20
40
60
80
100
0.01 0.1 1.0 10 1000
20
40
60
80
100
0.01 0.1 1.0 10 1000
20
40
60
80
100
0.01 0.1 1.0 10 1000
20
40
60
80
100
0.01 0.1 1.0 10 1000
20
40
60
80
100
0.01 0.1 1.0 10 1000
20
40
60
80
100
0.01 0.1 1.0 10 1000
20
40
60
80
100
0.01 0.1 1.0 10 1000
20
40
60
80
100
0.01 0.1 1.0 10 1000
20
40
60
80
100
0.01 0.1 1.0 10 1000
20
40
60
80
100
Percentage of 2242 Daytime Hours (%)
Westley Shafter Oakglen Hammock Coverfield Vine
FallbrookRamona 10 Ramona 11 Ramona 12 Ramona 5Valley Center 13 Valley Center 2 Valley Center 8
Fallbrook and Valley Center data are from 2014; all other sites are from 2015
52© 2015 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Correlation of Irradiance Changes over Distances –California Cluster
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 5000
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
Cor
rela
tion
Coe
ffici
ent
Distance (km)
5 sec10 sec30 sec1 min10 min1 hour
53© 2015 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Ramp Rate Percentiles – Los Angeles ClusterJan. to June 2015
-100
-50
0
50
100
Cha
nge
in P
ower
(% o
f Rat
ing)
99.99th99.9th99th95th90th
5 sec 10 sec 30 sec 1 min 10 min 1 hour
-100
-50
0
50
100
Ramp Rate IntervalL.
A. C
lust
erH
amm
ock
L.A
. Clu
ster
Ham
moc
k
L.A
. Clu
ster
Ham
moc
k
L.A
. Clu
ster
Ham
moc
k
L.A
. Clu
ster
Ham
moc
k
L.A
. Clu
ster
Ham
moc
k
54© 2015 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Ramp Rate Percentiles – San Diego ClusterJan. to June 2014
-100
-50
0
50
100
Cha
nge
in P
ower
(% o
f Rat
ing)
99.99th99.9th99th95th90th
5 sec 10 sec 30 sec 1 min 10 min 1 hour
-100
-50
0
50
100
Ramp Rate IntervalS
.D. C
lust
erVa
lley
Pol
e #2
S.D
. Clu
ster
Valle
y P
ole
#2
S.D
. Clu
ster
Valle
y P
ole
#2
S.D
. Clu
ster
Valle
y P
ole
#2
S.D
. Clu
ster
Valle
y P
ole
#2
S.D
. Clu
ster
Valle
y P
ole
#2
55© 2015 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Ramp Rate Percentiles – Valley Center FeederJan. to June 2014
Valle
y C
lust
erVa
lley
Pol
e #2
-100
-50
0
50
100
Cha
nge
in P
ower
(% o
f Rat
ing)
99.99th99.9th99th95th90th
5 sec 10 sec 30 sec 1 min 10 min 1 hour
-100
-50
0
50
100
Ramp Rate Interval
Valle
y C
lust
erVa
lley
Pol
e #2
Valle
y C
lust
erVa
lley
Pol
e #2
Valle
y C
lust
erVa
lley
Pol
e #2
Valle
y C
lust
erVa
lley
Pol
e #2
Valle
y C
lust
erVa
lley
Pol
e #2
56© 2015 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Ramp Rate Percentiles – Ramona FeederJan. to June 2014
Ram
ona
Clu
ster
Ram
ona
Pol
e #5
-100
-50
0
50
100
Cha
nge
in P
ower
(% o
f Rat
ing)
99.99th99.9th99th95th90th
5 sec 10 sec 30 sec 1 min 10 min 1 hour
-100
-50
0
50
100
Ramp Rate Interval
Ram
ona
Clu
ster
Ram
ona
Pol
e #5
Ram
ona
Clu
ster
Ram
ona
Pol
e #5
Ram
ona
Clu
ster
Ram
ona
Pol
e #5
Ram
ona
Clu
ster
Ram
ona
Pol
e #5
Ram
ona
Clu
ster
Ram
ona
Pol
e #5
57© 2015 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Together…Shaping the Future of Electricity
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