terrorist, hurricanes, and viruses, what’s next?

Tampa, FloridaMarch 12th, 2006

James G. Young, M.D.Special Advisor to the Deputy MinisterPublic Safety and Emergency Preparedness Canada

Terrorist, Hurricanes, and Viruses, What’s next?

Will we face emergencies?

Aging and interconnected infrastructure

Terrorism

Natural emergencies and global warming

Political deaths

Emerging diseases and pandemics

Trends In Emergencies

More frequent

Bigger

International in scope

Complex

Aging and Interconnected Infrastructure

Blackout 2003

Blackout Facts

August 14, 2004, 4:00 pm

50 million people

61,800 megawatts of load

OHIO, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New York, Vermont, Massachusetts, Connecticut, New Jersey, Ontario

Northern portion of eastern grid

10% of total grid

The Causes

Inadequate situational awareness at First Energy Training inadequate Procedures inadequate Equipment needs

Inadequate tree timing Sagging wires because of heat

Inadequate diagnostic support along system

Roles of Forensics and Policing

Assess cyber risk

Investigate physical damage

Public safety and security

Terrorism

Cyber

Bombs

Biological

Chemical

Indonesia

Land Area 1,919,443 square kilometers

Population: 211 million

4th Largest in the World

Muslims 90%

Largest Muslim Country in World (India 2nd)

GNP per Head $690 U.S.

GNP Growth 2% (77 - 2001);

(33 in 2001)

Jemaaj Islamiah

Aim Muslim axis – Indonesia, Malaysia, South Philippines

Links Al Qaeda

Arrest Abu Bakar Bashir

Declaration as terrorist organization

Countries Involved

Indonesia (Lead) (40)

Australia (80)

Britain (30)

New Zealand

Sweden (6)

Canada (2)

United States (2)

South Africa (2)

TOTAL (190)

Role of foreign countries

Scientific Expertise

Investigative Expertise

Organizational Structure and Support

(e.g. computers)

Medical Aid

Guerillas Fighters Versus Terrorists

Guerillas Fighters want to occupy Territory

Terrorists want to occupy Thinking

Some Roles of Forensic Science in Terrorism

Who died?

Who did it?

What caused it?

How was it done?

Multidisciplinary Approach To Terrorism

Shoe Bomber – Richard Reid

Analysis of Bomb

Multi-agency Re-creation

Mitochondria Hair Analysis

Anthrax- Role of Science

Identify agent

Advise re decontamination

Techniques to open letters

Information re anthrax made

When anthrax made

Characteristics of anthrax

Analysis of other evidence

e.g. tape, ink, fibers, DNA, copying

Immediate Effects in Ontario

Public safety

Operate government

Air space

Border problems

Economic consequences

The Death Toll

DATE MISSING BODIES IDENTIFIED

Sept. 16 --- 140 90

Sept. 17 a.m. 4,957 190

( 37 emergency personnel )

115

Sept. 17 p.m. 5,422 201 135

Sept. 19 5,400 256 135

Sept. 20 6.333 --- ---

Sept. 29 5,960 306 258

Oct. 18 4,650 338 445

9-11 Identification

> 50%

Recognition

Dental

Fingerprints

DNA Heat Decomposition Volume

Natural Emergencies and Global Warming

Tsunamis Devastate Asia December 26, 2004

Who Died?

Original numbers

Checking the numbers

Remembering to report back

Duplication

• spelling

• reports by relatives

• countries

Individuals not reporting

Identifying Bodies

30 countries plus Thailand

Countries in support Thailand

All bodies managed same way

Agreeing on a protocol

Get message to all levels

Establishing Identity

Post mortem

Ante mortem

Reconciliation process

Ante Mortem

When should we begin?

All countries collect, process DNA

standard computer program

RCMP Vancouver collect, enter

Reconciliation Centre

Physically establish

Write processes

Collect post mortem information

Ongoing staffing – data entry, administration, DNA scientists, fingerprint, deontologists, anthropologists

Extended period of operation

Establishing Identity

Presumptive

jewellery, clothing, personal effects scars, moles, tattoos

Scientific

fingerprints dental DNA

Why Presumptive Identification Does Not Work

Decomposition

Relatives glance at body

Similarities of, e.g. tattoos

Transferred documentation

Results – Tsunami Identifications

Ante mortem records - 3 615

Identifications - 2 732

Canadian reconciliations - 24 of 24

Identification of Humans

DNA Dental FingerprintsTattoos

ScarsRecognition

Swiss Air X X X

9/11 X XX X X

Bali X X X X

Tsunami X X X X X

The Future

Mass disasters will occur

Multiple countries/disciplines involved

Role for police, forensic science and forensic medicine

Planning and protocols help

Political Deaths

The Untimely death of a leaderAbiola (1937-1998)

Nigeria

Population

Economy

Tribal History

Emerging Diseases and Pandemics

SARS : The Toronto Experience

SARS

Example of Bioterror

Example of Pandemic

Hong Kong – The Metropole Hotel

Feb 23, index case returns from Hong KongMarch 5, index case dies at homeMarch 7, case 2 in ERMarch 13, case 2 dies; 5 family members admitted

March 12th – WHO Alert

Atypical pneumonia

Health workers most affected

Unidentified cause

Spreading in south-east Asia

Case A(died)

Case B(died)

Case C(died)

4 members of family A

Family A’sphysician

1 CC

1 X-ray tech

3 ICU nurses

1 HH

3HH

3 EMS

March 16, 20037 ER visitors1 ER patient

5 HH1 CC

6 CCU nurses

3 HH

1 CCU Clerk

1 physician1 physician’s clerk

3 HH

1 CCU patient( 1 died)

Transferred toanother hospital

1 physician

1 HH

Figure 3. Transmission of SARS in Hospital A (N=72)

2 ER nurses 2 ER nurses

1 ER Clerk

Case B’s wife(died)

4 ER nurses Clinic nurse

1 Housekeeper

1 HH

1 Housekeeper

1 EMS

LEGEND

Case

Household case

Close contact case

Transmission outsideof Hospital A

HH

Transferred toHospital B

Index Case(died)

Case C’s wife

1 coworker privatesector

CC

1 visitor1 ER patient

The role of Forensics in Emerging Illness

Identification of Agent

Genetic Code to Map progression

Management of outbreak

Pandemic Impacts

11,000 - 58,000 deaths

34,000 - 138,000 hospitalizations

2 - 5 million out patients

Workplace Effects

Spread worldwide within 3 months

Regional differences in outbreak timing

Absenteeism over 6-8 weeks

25-35% absent during peak weeks

Pandemic Waves

Peaks occur over 12-18 months

Fist peaks 2-4 months after virus arrive

Peaks last 6-8 weeks

Multiple breakouts in country but not entire country at once

Partnerships

“None of us is as smart as all of us

Our most important weapon is human ingenuity

and our ability to think