teslas jb straubel at sces2014 - future of evs gigafactories, battery storage and the grid

Southern California Energy Summit JB Straubel

CTO, co-founder Oct 10th, 2014

•   Lead-­‐acid  technology  was  status  quo  in  1995  •   Performance  had  stagnated  

§   Short  lifespan  §   Very  heavy    §   Short  range  

Lithium  ion  Made  Possible:  §   4  X  gravimetric  energy  density  §   6  X  volumetric  energy  density  §   3  X  cycle  life  

EV Battery History!

Industry first Lithium Ion EV Powertrain!

3  -­‐    

Controls and Software

Power Electronics Module

(DC-AC Inverter, Charger)

Proprietary 53 kWh Lithium ion

battery pack

Proprietary 250hp AC Induction Motor and

Gearbox

A  New  Idea  at  the  Time  (2004):  Performance  Electric  Cars  

Focus on Energy Storage Packaging and Cost!

Ø  Ground-up design as EV-only (Model S)"Ø  Optimal packaging, safety and performance"Ø  High energy density leads to lower cost" 85 kWh Battery

Pack

Glass Cockpit – Comfort with Software!

An Electronics and Software Culture!

•  Core focus and Tesla DNA •  Battery voltage management •  Motor Control •  Diagnostics •  Touchscreen •  Mobile App •  Traction and Stability Control

•  Complete Over the Air Updates

Model S!

Starting at $62,400 Starting at $62,400 Starting at $70,000

Performance  

§  0-­‐60  mph  :  4.2s  (sport),  3.2s  (dual  motor  sport)  Driving  range      

§  265  miles  (US  EPA  raCng)  Advanced  range  capabiliQes  

§  20  minute  DC  fast  charge  capability  (10-­‐60%)  

Model S – Most Awarded car of 2013!

Dual Motor Platform – Unveiled Oct 9th !

Ø  3.2 second 0-60mph in Model S “P85D” (really fast!)"Ø  Improved efficiency and torque distribution"

Model X – Launch in 2015!

Vehicle  Aff

orda

bility  

Market  Size  /  Timing  

Tesla  Model  S   Tesla  Model  X  

Second  GeneraCon  PlaTorm  

Tesla  Roadster  

First  GeneraCon  

Model  3  PlaTorm  

Tesla  Model  3  Sedan  &  Crossover  

Product Roadmap – Growing EV Volume!

Tesla Roadster

GM EV1

Volu

met

ric E

nerg

y D

ensi

ty [W

h/l]

600

500

400

300

200

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Year

2010 2015 2020

Model S

700

Model 3

Battery Energy Density Trend!

800

Vehicle  Aff

orda

bility  

Market  Size  /  Timing  

Tesla  Model  S   Tesla  Model  X  

Second  GeneraCon  PlaTorm  

Tesla  Roadster  

First  GeneraCon  

Model  3  PlaTorm  

Tesla  Model  3  Sedan  &  Crossover  

Product Roadmap – Growing EV Volume!

0!

5!

10!

15!

20!

25!

30!

35!

40!

2010! 2011! 2012! 2013! 2014! 2015! 2016! 2017! 2018! 2019! 2020!

Gigafactory!

Others!

Lishen!

BYD!

BAK!

ATL!

Maxell!

Sony!

Panasonic!

LGC!

SDI!

 500,000 Vehicles

Global cell supply growing, but

almost entirely in Asia

Planned 2020 Gigafactory Production Exceeds 2013 Global Production

Battery pack cost/kWh reduced >30% for Model 3

 35,000

Vehicles

 G

Wh/

Year

Pro

duct

ion

Tesla Battery Gigafactory!

Module                    

Cathode  Manufacturing  

Aluminum  Foil  

Cathode  Electrode  

Anode  Electrode  

Separator  Manufacturing   Separator   Winding  

Cell  

Assembly  

Anode  Manufacturing  

Copper  Foil  

Raw

Mat

eria

ls

Cell  

Cell  

Cell  

…  

Pack                    

Module  

Module  

Module  

…  

Pack Enclosure

Vehicle  Assembly  (Fremont,  CA)  

Can  &  Cap  

Ba=ery  Pack  Life@me  Usage  

Ba=ery  Pack  Recycling  

Raw Steel/Aluminum

Electrolyte  Manufacturing  

Gigafactory Process Flow!

CoCO3

Ni metal NiCoAlOH (precursor) NiSO4

H2SO4 NaAlO2

NaOH

NiCoAlO

Calcining

Li2CO3 LiOH

Chemical conversion

LiNiCoAlO2

Pulverizing Classifying

O2

Calcining

CoSO4

smelter  

Start with Raw Materials Cost!

•  Tesla Supercharger Network DC connection to vehicle 135 kW power (300-415VDC) 0-50% SOC in 20 minutes

•  Free unlimited usage by Model S customers

EV Infrastructure – Tesla Supercharger!

Energy  cost  disparity  growing  (between  electricity  and  petroleum)  Electric  shaS  power  is  roughly  4x  as  efficient  as  petroleum  Electric  shaS  power  is  ~$1.00/gallon  equivalent  (vs.  $4.00/gallon)  

EV Operating Cost!

2014 Year-End Plan – US & Canada!

•  115 active sites in US •  > 200 sites worldwide •  Adding a new location every ~18 hours

Superchargers Today (Tesla web Site “find us”)!

Superchargers around the world!

2014 Plan - Europe!

Shanghai Supercharger!

Tesla Supercharger Usage Metrics!

Total  Energy  Output  (MWh)   10,897  

Total  Capacity  (kW)   65,730  Total  #  of  SC  locaQons  /  stalls   189/1041  

(+11  new  sites  in  June)  

Total  #  of  Supercharge  Sessions   ~300,000  

Wee

kly

Ener

gy O

utpu

t (M

Wh)

Inst

alle

d C

apac

ity (k

W)

1.  Badery  Cell  and  Cell  Materials  Suppliers  –  huge  growth  opportunity  •  Raw  materials  (Nickel,  Cobalt,  Lithium  Hydroxide,  Graphite,  Separator,  Electrolyte)  •  Cell  Assembly  equipment  (coaQng,  pressing,  winding,  assembly)  

2.  Electric  UQliQes  •  Revenue  growth  and  Load  Management  opportunity  •  Public  charging  growth  opportunity  (fast  DC  and  slower  AC)  •  Growth  in  renewable  energy  generaQon  with  charging  storage  buffer  

3.  Power  Electronics  Suppliers  –  growth  opportunity  •  IGBT’s,  charging,  magneQcs,  DC-­‐DC  conversion,  thermal  interface  materials  

4.  AutomoQve  and  Equipment  OEM’s  –  significant  change,  opportunity  and  risk  •  New  EV  product  adributes  can  accelerate  sales,  delight  customers  •  Lack  of  innovaQon  or  bemng  on  the  wrong  technology  can  cause  market  loss  •  Poorly  implemented  EV  technology  can  waste  resources  and  lose  customers  

5.  Oil  and  Gas  Majors  –  eventual  reducQon  in  revenue  but  installed  base  is  huge  and  broad  •  1  billion  cars  on  the  road,  100M  new  per  year,  0.2%  EV  (~200,000/yr)  

Industries Affected by Transport Electrification!

Product Line Automotive Residential Commercial

Power/Energy 310 kW / 85 kWh 5 kW / 10 kWh 200 kW / 400 kWh+

Listed Outdoor Rated

Stationary Energy Storage Product Derivatives!

29

Behind the Meter Concept w/ Solar Net Metering

Electric Utility Ownership

Loads (consumption)

Distributed Generation

Distributed Storage

Bidirectional Energy Flow

30

Behind the Meter Storage Aggregation

10 x 100kWh = 1MWh

Electric Utility Ownership

Customer Ownership

31

Behind the Meter Storage Aggregation

Electric Utility Ownership

Customer Ownership

10 x 100kWh = 1MWh

AggregaCon  Company  

Utility or ISO

32

Behind the Meter Storage Aggregation

Electric Utility Ownership

Customer Ownership

60 x 100kWh = 6MWh

10,000 homes x 100kWh = 1,000MWh = 1GWh

AggregaCon  Company  

Utility or ISO

Stationary Pack at supercharger station in CA!

33  

400  kWh  ba[ery  pack  

Stationary Pack at supercharger station in CA!

Peak Demand Reduction at Supercharger Site

MW Scale Stationary Storage!

200kW / 400 kWh 200kW / 400 kWh 200kW / 400 kWh 200kW / 400 kWh 200kW / 400 kWh

1MW / 2 MWh

Tesla  Factory  Fremont,  CA  

Scalable Building Blocks

400 kWh Scalable System!

Utility Scale Storage!

•  Modular •  Scalable (10s of MW+) •  AC Parallel Connections

–  High Reliability –  Simplified Construction

20MW / 40 MWh!

California ISO load curve evolution!

2020 California Load and Generation Curves!

2020 California Load and Generation Curves!

The Ideal Solution?

Q: What area is required to offset 100% of Passenger car miles driven in the USA?1

Photovoltaic  

1.  1.658 x 1012 miles in 2002 (DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics) 2.  cia.gov

“The stone age came to an end not for lack of stones And the oil age will come to an end not for lack of oil”

— Sheikh Yamani, former Saudi Oil Minister