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TEXAS HOUSING INSIGHTLUIS B. TORRESRESEARCH ECONOMIST
JAMES P. GAINESCHIEF ECONOMIST
WESLEY MILLERRESEARCH ASSOCIATE
PAIGE SILVARESEARCH ASSOCIATE
GRIFFIN CARTERRESEARCH INTERN
T E C H N I C A L R E P O R T
2 1 2 0F E B R U A R Y 2 0 2 0 D ATA
About this Report .................................................................................................................................. 3
February 2020 Summary ....................................................................................................................... 4
Supply .................................................................................................................................................... 7
Texas Residential Construction Index ............................................................................................... 7
Single-Family Housing Construction Permits .................................................................................... 7
Texas Housing Construction Permits ................................................................................................ 8
Major Metros Single-Family Housing Construction Permits ............................................................ 8
Total Housing Starts Per Capita ........................................................................................................ 9
Total New Private Single-Family Construction Value ....................................................................... 9
Total Months of Inventory .............................................................................................................. 10
Texas Months of Inventory by Price Cohort ................................................................................... 10
Texas Current Months of Inventory by Price Cohort ...................................................................... 11
Texas Existing and New Home Months of Inventory...................................................................... 11
Major Metros Existing Home Months of Inventory ....................................................................... 12
Major Metros New Home Months of Inventory ............................................................................ 12
Demand ............................................................................................................................................... 13
Total Housing Sales ......................................................................................................................... 13
Texas Total Housing Sales by Price Cohort ..................................................................................... 13
Major Metros Total Housing Sales.................................................................................................. 14
Texas Homes Days on Market ........................................................................................................ 14
Major Metros Existing Homes Days on Market .............................................................................. 15
Major Metros New Homes Days on Market ................................................................................... 15
Texas Home Days on Market by Price Cohort ................................................................................ 16
30-Year Mortgage Rate and 10-Year Treasury Yield ...................................................................... 16
Texas Mortgage Applications ......................................................................................................... 17
Prices ................................................................................................................................................... 18
United States Existing and New Home Median Sales Price ............................................................ 18
Texas Existing and New Home Median Sales Price ........................................................................ 18
Major Metros Existing Home Median Sales Price .......................................................................... 19
Major Metros New Home Median Sales Price ............................................................................... 19
Texas Home Median Price Per Square Foot ................................................................................... 20
2
Major Metros Existing Home Median Price Per Square Foot ......................................................... 20
Major Metros New Home Median Price Per Square Foot .............................................................. 21
Texas Home Sales Price to List Price ............................................................................................... 21
Major Metros Existing Home Sale Price to List Price...................................................................... 22
Major Metros New Home Sale Price to List Price........................................................................... 22
Repeat Sales Home Price Index ...................................................................................................... 23
3
Real Estate Center economists continuously monitor many facets of the global, national, and Texas
economies. Texas Housing Insight is a summary of important economic indicators that help discern
trends in the Texas housing markets. All measurements are calculated using seasonally adjusted
data, and percentage changes are calculated month-over-month, unless stated otherwise.
This monthly publication provides data and insights on the Texas housing markets. We hope you
find them useful. Your feedback is always appreciated. Send comments and suggestions to
info@recenter.tamu.edu.
Dr. James Gaines, Dr. Luis Torres, Wesley Miller, Paige Silva, and Griffin Carter
Data current as of March 24, 2020
© 2020, Real Estate Center. All rights reserved.
4
Please note this review does not account for the impacts of the COVID-19 outbreak but reflects the
market through February 2020.
Prior to the domestic coronavirus outbreak, Texas housing sales increased 2.3 percent in February
during healthy economic conditions and low interest rates. Housing demand was robust, although
inventories were constrained, especially for homes priced less than $300,000. Strong supply-side
activity, however, was poised to alleviate some shortages. Home-price appreciation accelerated,
but the Repeat Sales Index suggested more moderate price growth. The coronavirus outbreak is
the greatest threat to the Texas housing market via disruptions to building material supply-chains,
the negative income shock, and wariness of visiting and showing homes for sale. These effects may
show up in the March data but will likely have a significant impact during the second quarter of the
year.
Supply*
Contemporaneous and anticipated construction levels reached post-recessionary highs in February.
The Texas Residential Construction Cycle (Coincident) Index, which measures current construction
levels, ticked up amid industry wage and employment improvements. Falling interest rates and
increased building permits and housing starts supported growth in the Residential Construction
Leading Index.
Single-family construction permits extended a yearlong upward trend, rising 1 percent. Texas led
the nation with 11,211 nonseasonally adjusted permits, accounting for more than 17 percent of the
U.S. total, but ranked sixth in per capita issuance. At the metropolitan level, Houston topped the
list with 3,515 permits but actually declined 1.8 percent after adjusting for seasonality. Austin and
Dallas comprised most of the state’s increase, issuing 1,631 and 2,486 nonseasonally adjusted
permits, respectively. San Antonio permits fell to 773, but the metric remained elevated in Fort
Worth at 954. In the multifamily sector, permits decreased 5.6 percent after a modest start to the
year.
Texas housing starts surged 21.5 percent to its greatest post-crisis level with improvements in both
the single-family and multifamily sectors. On the other hand, single-family private construction
* All measurements are calculated using seasonally adjusted data, and percentage changes are calculated month over month, unless stated otherwise.
5
values dropped 4.7 percent after adjusting for inflation. As with permits, Houston was responsible
for most of the contraction. Austin and DFW values flattened, while San Antonio only partially
recovered from a 13 percent plunge in January.
Record sales and a dwindling supply of active listings pulled Texas’ months of inventory (MOI)
down to an all-time low of 3.2 months. A total MOI around six months is considered a balanced
housing market. The MOI for homes priced less than $300,000 fell to 2.5 months, while inventory
for luxury homes (those priced more than $500,000) also declined but remained elevated at 7.5
months. This disparity exemplifies the shortage of affordable housing, although efforts have been
made to more closely match demand and supply.
Inventory in the major metros decreased across the board. Austin maintained the most constrained
inventory with an MOI of 1.7 months, followed by Fort Worth at 2.3 months. The Dallas and San
Antonio metrics slid to 2.7 and 3.0 months, respectively. After a brief expansion to start the year,
Houston’s inventory fell below 3.7 months as the metro’s supply of active listings contracted for
the first time in six months, largely due to reductions in the lower price ranges.
Demand
After stalling the previous month, total housing sales during February rose 2.3 percent in an
environment of low interest rates and solid employment growth. Sales for homes priced more than
$400,000 accounted for much of the gain, whereas activity for homes priced less than $400,000
decelerated.
In nearly all of the major metros, sales for homes in the luxury price bracket were the greatest
contributor to overall closings. Central Texas sales increased 2.2 and 2.1 percent in Austin and San
Antonio, respectively, while Dallas sales rose 3 percent. Although sales for higher-priced homes in
Fort Worth climbed 10.3 percent, total sales flattened as activity in other price ranges took a step
back. Houston was the exception. Homes priced between $200,000-$400,000 comprised two-thirds
of the city’s overall 4.8 percent improvement.
Texas’ average days on market (DOM) ticked down to 58 days, indicating healthy demand. The
metric stabilized at 56 days in Houston and at 53 and 43 days in Dallas and Fort Worth,
respectively. Demand was especially robust in Austin, where the DOM declined to 49 days after
shedding more than a week off its year-ago level. San Antonio’s DOM ticked up slightly to 62 days
but hovered around its seven-year average.
Growing concerns over the coronavirus outbreak and falling oil prices pulled interest rates down in
February. The ten-year U.S. Treasury bond yield decreased to 1.5 percent, while the Federal Home
Loan Mortgage Corporation’s 30-year fixed-rate fell below 3.5 percent. Mortgage applications for
home purchases slowed but maintained 2.7 percent year-to-date (YTD) growth. Refinance activity
remained sluggish from month to month, although the number of applications received was
astronomical relative to the same period last year.
6
Prices
The Texas median home price accelerated 6.3 percent YOY to $249,100 as demand strengthened
and inventory shrank. Austin’s median price reached double-digit YOY growth for the first time
since 2015, skyrocketing nearly 13 percent to $335,600. The metric in San Antonio ($242,000) and
Houston ($252,100) rose 6.8 and 6.4 percent, respectively. On the other hand, home-price
appreciation softened to around 5 percent growth in North Texas, resulting in a median price of
$297,500 in Dallas and $249,100 in Fort Worth.
The Texas Repeat Sales Home Price Index, a better measure of changes in single-family home
values, provides insight into how Texas home prices evolve. The index indicated more moderate
annual home price appreciation of 3.2 percent. Except for in San Antonio, where the metric picked
up its pace to rise 3.4 percent YOY, the metropolitan indices’ growth rates slowed from the month
prior. The Austin index registered just 4.6 percent growth compared with the metro’s much greater
home-price appreciation. Houston’s index increased 2.8 percent, while the Dallas and Fort Worth
indices rose 2.5 and 2.9 percent, respectively. Favorable housing affordability relative to other
parts of the country supported the Lone Star State’s economic growth in the years following the
burst of the housing bubble a decade ago. Texas needs to maintain affordability for the housing
market to remain a stalwart in the impending recession and subsequent recovery.
The data reported here indicate the strength of the Texas housing market prior to the domestic
COVID-19 outbreak and plunge in oil prices. The events of the past month and the economic
expectations for the second half of the year will overshadow recent optimistic conditions. The
government stimulus bill signed late in March allowing forbearances on federally backed mortgage
loans, moratoriums on evictions, and direct financial payments to Americans earning within an
income threshold will aid current homeowners, but it is unlikely to spur additional home sales.
Even though we expect the real estate sector will be less affected than many other industries, the
Center’s 2020 housing projections will in all probability be reached. The total impact of the
impending recession on Texas’ housing market is yet to be seen.
7
Note: Trend-Cycle Component. Sources: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University and Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Note: Trend-Cycle Component. Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
TX Coincident Index US Coincident Index TX Leading Index
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
United States
Texas
Texas Residential Construction Index (Index Jan 2000 = 100)
Single-Family Housing Construction Permits (Index Jan 2000 = 100)
8
Note: Trend-Cycle Component. Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
Note: Trend-Cycle Component. Fort Worth is missing data for Somervell County. Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Single-Family Units 2-4 Family Units
5+ Family Units
20
60
100
140
180
220
260
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Austin-Round Rock
Dallas-Plano-Irving
Fort Worth-Arlington
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land
San Antonio-New Braunfels
Texas Housing Construction Permits (Index Jan 2000 = 100)
Major Metros Single-Family Housing Construction Permits (Index Jan 2000 = 100)
9
Note: Trend-Cycle Component. Source: U.S. Census Bureau and Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ
Note: Inflation adjusted. Trend-Cycle Component. Source: Dodge Data & Analytics
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
United States
Texas
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
275
300
325
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Texas
Austin-Round Rock
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land
San Antonio-New Braunfels
Total New Private Single-Family Construction Value
(Index Jan 2011 = 100)
Total Housing Starts Per Capita
(Index Jan 2000 = 100)
10
Note: Trend-Cycle Component. Months of inventory for the United States is estimated using weights for all existing homes and new single-family homes; new nonsingle-family homes are not included. Texas includes all existing and new homes. For more information, see Months of Inventory. Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, National Association of Realtors, and Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
Note: Trend-Cycle Component. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
United States Texas
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
$0-$199,999 $200,000-$299,999
$300,000-$399,999 $400,000-$499,999
$500,000+
Total Months of Inventory (Months)
Texas Months of Inventory by Price Cohort (Months)
11
Note: Seasonally adjusted. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
Texas Existing and New Home Months of Inventory
(Months)
Note: Trend-Cycle Component. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
2.8 2.73.5
4.1
7.5
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
$0 - $200K $200K - $300K $300K - $400K $400K - $500K $500K+
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Existing Months of Inventory
New Months of Inventory
Texas Current Months of Inventory by Price Cohort (February 2020)
12
Major Metros Existing Home Months of Inventory (Months)
Note: Trend-Cycle Component. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
Note: Trend-Cycle Component. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Austin-Round Rock
Dallas-Plano-Irving
Fort Worth-Arlington
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land
San Antonio-New Braunfels
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Austin-Round Rock Dallas-Plano-Irving
Fort Worth-Arlington Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land
San Antonio-New Braunfels
Major Metros New Home Months of Inventory (Months)
13
Note: Trend-Cycle Component. Sales for the United States include all existing homes and new single-family homes sold through an MLS; new non-single-family homes are not included. Texas includes all existing and new homes. For more information see Housing Sales. Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, National Association of Realtors, and Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
Note: Trend-Cycle Component. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
United States Texas
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
$0-$199,999 $200,000-$299,999
$300,000-$399,999 $400,000-$499,999
$500,000+
Total Housing Sales (Index Jan 2000 = 100)
Texas Total Housing Sales by Price Cohort (Index Jan 2011 = 100)
14
Note: Trend-Cycle Component. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
Note: Trend-Cycle Component. For single-family homes. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Austin-Round Rock
Dallas-Plano-Irving
Fort Worth-Arlington
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land
San Antonio-New Braunfels
45
55
65
75
85
95
105
115
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Existing Home Days on Market New Home Days on Market
Texas Homes Days on Market (Days)
Major Metros Total Housing Sales (Index Jan 2000 = 100)
15
Note: Trend-Cycle Component. For single-family homes. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
Note: Trend-Cycle Component. For single-family homes. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
25
35
45
55
65
75
85
95
105
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Austin-Round Rock
Dallas-Plano-Irving
Fort Worth-Arlington
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land
San Antonio-New Braunfels
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Austin-Round Rock Dallas-Plano-Irving
Fort Worth-Arlington Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land
San Antonio-New Braunfels
Major Metros Existing Homes Days on Market (Days)
Major Metros New Homes Days on Market (Days)
16
Note: Trend-Cycle Component. For single-family homes. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
Note: Nonseasonally adjusted. Sources: Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation and Federal Reserve Board
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
$0-$199,999 $200,000-$299,999
$300,000-$399,999 $400,000-$499,999
$500,000+
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Mortgage Bond
30-Year Mortgage Rate and 10-Year Treasury Yield
(Percent)
Texas Home Days on Market by Price Cohort (Days)
17
Note: Seasonally adjusted. Source: Mortgage Bankers Association
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Refinance Purchase
Texas Mortgage Applications
(Year-over-Year Percentage Change)
18
Note: Trend-Cycle Component. For single-family homes. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Note: Trend-Cycle Component. For single-family homes. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
160,000
180,000
200,000
220,000
240,000
260,000
280,000
300,000
320,000
340,000
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Existing Home Median Sales Price
New Home Median Sales Price
130,000
150,000
170,000
190,000
210,000
230,000
250,000
270,000
290,000
310,000
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Existing Home Median Sale Price
New Home Median Sale Price
Texas Existing and New Home Median Sales Price ($)
United States Existing and New Home Median Sales Price ($)
19
Note: Trend-Cycle Component. For single-family homes. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
Note: Trend-Cycle Component. For single-family homes. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
120,000
150,000
180,000
210,000
240,000
270,000
300,000
330,000
360,000
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Austin-Round Rock
Dallas-Plano-Irving
Fort Worth-Arlington
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land
San Antonio-New Braunfels
170,000
200,000
230,000
260,000
290,000
320,000
350,000
380,000
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Austin-Round Rock
Dallas-Plano-Irving
Fort Worth-Arlington
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land
San Antonio-New Braunfels
Major Metros Existing Home Median Sales Price ($)
Major Metros New Home Median Sales Price ($)
20
Note: Trend-Cycle Component. For single-family homes. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
Note: Trend-Cycle Component. For single-family homes. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
65
75
85
95
105
115
125
135
145
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Existing Home Median Price PSF
New Home Median Price PSF
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Austin-Round Rock
Dallas-Plano-Irving
Fort Worth-Arlington
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land
San Antonio-New Braunfels
Major Metros Existing Home Median Price Per Square Foot ($)
Texas Home Median Price Per Square Foot ($)
21
Note: Trend-Cycle Component. For single-family homes. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
Note: Trend-Cycle Component. For single-family homes. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
75
85
95
105
115
125
135
145
155
165
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Austin-Round Rock Dallas-Plano-Irving
Fort Worth-Arlington Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land
San Antonio-New Braunfels
0.90
0.91
0.92
0.93
0.94
0.95
0.96
0.97
0.98
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Existing Home Sale-to-List Price Ratio
New Home Sale-to-List Price Ratio
Texas Home Sale Price to List Price (Ratio)
Major Metros New Home Median Price Per Square Foot ($)
22
Note: Trend-Cycle Component. For single-family homes. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
Note: Trend-Cycle Component. For single-family homes. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
0.90
0.91
0.92
0.93
0.94
0.95
0.96
0.97
0.98
0.99
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Austin-Round Rock
Dallas-Plano-Irving
Fort Worth-Arlington
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land
San Antonio-New Braunfels
0.91
0.92
0.93
0.94
0.95
0.96
0.97
0.98
0.99
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Austin-Round Rock
Dallas-Plano-Irving
Fort Worth-Arlington
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land
San Antonio-New Braunfels
Major Metros Existing Home Sale Price to List Price (Ratio)
Major Metros New Home Sale Price to List Price (Ratio)
23
Note: Seasonally adjusted. The Repeat Sales Home Price Index tracks real home price appreciation for residential single-family homes.
Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Texas Austin-Round RockDallas-Plano-Irving Fort Worth-ArlingtonHouston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land San Antonio-New Braunfels
Repeat Sales Home Price Index (Year-over-Year Percentage Change)
i
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