the arab spring iafs 1000. outline tunisian trigger misconception re status quo ante spread of arab...

The Arab Spring

IAFS 1000

Outline

• Tunisian Trigger• Misconception re Status Quo Ante• Spread of Arab Spring• Role of Social Media• Implications for Syria• Conclusions

Origins• 17 Dec 2010:

Mohammed Bouazizi, Tunisian fruit-seller, self-immolated to protest abuse

• Protests spread throughout Tunisia

• 14 Jan 2011: President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali forced into exile

Tunisian Themes

• Focus on economic issues• Mass uprisings spontaneous• Young people central to protests• Uprising successful in driving Ben Ali

from office

Misconceptions aboutPre-Rising Status Quo

• Autocrats’ tight control of military> varied widely from state to state

• Autocrats’ ability to use oil money to buy off disgruntled citizens

> yes, except in Libya• Weakness of Pan-Arabism

> leaderless revolts won broad Arab following

Repercussions (as of July 2012)

Spread of Unrest

• Egypt (Jan-Feb 2011): Mubarak handed power to military–Muhammad Morsi (Muslim Bros) to

power• Yemen (Feb 2011-ongoing): Saleh

handed power over to crony VP al-Hadi• Bahrain (Feb 2011-ongoing): protests put

down by Saudi forces

Spread of Unrest

• Libya (Feb-Oct 2011): Gaddafi killed–Jul 2012: parliamentary elections

• Syria (Mar 2011-ongoing): military response from government–Jul 2011: emergence of Free Syrian

Army (FSA)~ Nov 2011: civil war

Role of Social Media

• Calls to protest on Facebook• Social media a primary news source• Egyptian efforts to limit internet

backfired• Wael Ghonim (Google): “We Are All

Khalid Said”

Social Media

Young Egyptians post videos of events in Tahrir Square, 7 Feb 2011)http://www.nytimes.com/slideshow/2011/12/25/sunday-review/25YIP_ARABSPRING-4.html

Social Media

http://www.popsci.com/technology/article/2011-07/how-pentagon-program-and-hacker-assisted-revolution

Social Media

Images: Mandy Terc, “The Arab Spring and Social Media Research” 10 Mar 2012 PPT

http://npgportraits.si.edu/

Appropriating Well Known Images

Images: Mandy Terc, “The Arab Spring and Social Media Research” 10 Mar 2012 PPT

SocialMedia

“We are all Khalid Said”

Social Media

Images: Mandy Terc, “The Arab Spring and Social Media Research” 10 Mar 2012 PPT

Social Media

http://www.buzzfeed.com/mjs538/translated-egyptian-protest-signs

Antigovernment protesters in Bahrain’s Pearl Square Feb. 20.

Social Media

http://www.nytimes.com/slideshow/2011/12/25/sunday-review/25YIP_ARABSPRING-8.html

“Occupy Yemen”

“Occupy Bahrain”

Social Media Challenges

• Anonymity– “Gay Girl in Damascus” hoax

• Social media dominated by US private companies–Result of clash of business or national

interests?

Arab Spring’s Impact on Syria• Military conflict• Entire country

disintegrating• Assad’s Alawite

regime supported by China, Russia, and especially Iran

> hope to preserve “Shiite Crescent”?

new-middle-east.blogspot.com/2012/03/making-sense-of-arab-spring-7-syria-and.html

Arab Spring’s Impact on Syria

• Assad opposed by US, Saudi Arabia• Possible proxy war?• Syria at heart of multiple conflicts:–Arab-Israel–Saudi-Iran–US-Russia–Hezbolah-Israel

Conclusions

• Complicated events, varying results• Arab Spring not over yet, esp. in Syria• US relations with new Islamist

governments?• Haytham Bahoora: watch for ongoing

conflicts to be coopted by a range of interests for their own purposes