the changing digital landscape: where things are heading

The Changing Digital LandscapeState of the news media 2015

November 12, 2015Lee Rainie (@lrainie)Director, Internet, Science and Technology ResearchPew Research CenterTencent conference

Where people get mediaHow people get media

When and for how long they use mediaWho shapes and influences media

experiencesThe way media affects how people view themselves and their world

In America these changes have disrupted traditional

“industrial era” media institutions

Media are now personal, portable, participatory, and

pervasive

Contents

3 digital revolutions have changed the news

State of the digital news media 2015

6 Impacts on News and media

5 trends for the future

3 digital revolutions have changed the news and information environment in America

1996 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20150

20

40

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100

14

36

44

5255

59 61 6367

7174 74 76 76

7983 84 84

87Revolution 1 - Internet Users

%

Dec-00

Dec-01

Dec-02

Dec-03

Nov-04

Jan-05

Apr-06

Dec-07

Jan-08

Apr-09

Dec-10

May-11

Apr-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

May-13

Aug-13

Sep-14

Jun-15

0

20

40

60

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18

25

31

45

59

66

73 75 7782 81 83 84 85 87

91 89 91 92

11

19

27

37

43 44

5053 55

68

Cell phone

Smart phone

Revolution 2 – Mobile Connectivity

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

10%

76

7

65

Among internet Users

Among all adults

Revolution 3 – Social Networking / Social Media

State of the digital news media 2015

Network News: Fact SheetAudiencebroadcast networks saw a positive audience picture in 2014.

Economicstwo of the broadcast networks – ABC and CBS – improved financially in 2014, while NBC experienced a decline.

Digital Audiencereceived more visits via a mobile device than a desktop.

Digital News — Revenue: Fact SheetDigital Ad Revenue Continues to GrowIn 2014, $50.7 billion was spent on digital ads, including mobile, up 18% from $43.1 billion in 2013.

Mobile Ad Revenue Grows Rapidly in Past Two YearsIn 2014, $19 billion was spent on mobile advertising, up 78% from the $10.7 billion spent in 2013.

Digital News — Revenue: Fact SheetTotal Digital Display Advertising

Within digital advertising, display ads such as banners or video are where most news organizations make the majority of their digital revenue.

Video display ad spending is growing at a faster rate than any other display category.

Digital News — Revenue: Fact SheetTotal Digital Ad Revenue by Company

Five companies – Google, Facebook, Microsoft, Yahoo and AOL – still generated 61% of total domestic digital ad revenue in 2014.

Facebook continued to lead in mobile display ad revenue.

6 Impacts on news and media

1 - A Mobile MajorityMore and more people will get news and information on their mobile devices.

1 - A Mobile Majority

39 of the top 50 digital news websites have more traffic to their sites and associated applications coming from mobile devices than from desktop computers

At the same time, though, desktop visitors to these sites tend to spend more time per visit than do mobile visitors.

One segment of that – mobile advertising spending – showed sharp increases

2 - Mobile and Social go TogetherSocial networking/social media sites have become important sources of news for many Americans.

2 - Mobile and Social go Together

People are now depending a lot on their friends to be their “editors” about what information is important. Their friends are “information gatekeepers”.

Citizens do not trust the government or news organizations as much as they did a generation ago. They are shifting their trust to their personal networks.

Their friends’ opinions are the ones that often affect the products and services they buy, their political opinion, and even their lifestyles and personal habits.

3 - Facebook Now Rivals Legacy News Sources

3 - Facebook Now Rivals Legacy News Sources

Social media are becoming a news source that rivals other traditional sources.

Facebook is as important to political news consumers as local news TV station broadcasts, which for two generations have been the most popular source of news for Americans by a wide margin.

4 – There are Clear Generational Divides(Millennials are ages 18-34 …. Baby Boomers are ages 51-68)

4 – There are Clear Generational Divides

For younger users, Facebook is now more important than “local news” programs for getting news. That’s different from older generations, which still rely more on local

Technology change is usually powered by generational change. Teenagers and young adults are very eager users of digital technology.

Young people say their technology use is an important part of their personal identity and their generational identity.

5 - Digital Video and Radio News on the Rise

5 - Digital Video and Radio News on the Rise

The same trend towards digital content applies to video. It’s about a third of all Americans and half of those who use the internet.

Many news organizations now find they get as much attention to their archived online videos as they get to their live programs.

Video display ad spending is growing at a faster rate than any other display category .

6 - Consumers Are a Part of the Process(% of social media users who have …)

6 - Consumers Are a Part of the Process

The internet is much more defined by one-to-one and many-to-many communication.

It is not a one-direction platform where the flow of information is from a central source to consumers. It facilitates people being their own broadcasters and publishers. And they find this very meaningful.

This is very empowering and really changes political and civic life.

5 trends for the future

4th Revolution on the wayBy 2025, the internet will become ‘like electricity’ — less visible, yet more deeply embedded in people’s lives for

good and for ill Internet of Things (IoT)

1. Screens and data will be almost everywhere

• More media encounters and media sharing• More advertising opportunities• More change in measuring “audiences”

2. Augmented reality will bring media and data into real life

• More impact for location awareness• More immediacy for selling opportunities• More worries about privacy

3. Virtual reality will become immersive and compelling

• More customized media experiences• More attractive product placement• More distractions and brain change

4. Alerts will become pervasive and people will regulate their media streams more aggressively

• More awareness of news and social networks• More community interactions• More stress and frenzy

5. Smart agents and machines enabled by “artificial intelligence” will work alongside people as their assistants and “media concierges”

• More self-awareness• More relevant and actionable-information• More changes in the way people work

“The best way to predict the future is to invent it”

-- Alan Kay (1971)

Thank you!