the coming famine : risks and opportunities for global food security julian cribb ftse

The Coming Famine: risks and opportunities for global food security

Julian Cribb FTSENuffield International Conference

Adelaide, September 30, 2011

Food demand doubles by 2060s

Global food demand

A ‘wicked’ problem....

DEMAND:242,000 more people every dayMore babies + longer livesPopulation >10-11 bnFood demand soars in emerging

economies>600 petacalories/day

Total food demand to double by 2060s

CONSTRAINTS:‘Peak water’ ‘Peak land’‘Peak oil’ ‘Peak P’ ‘Peak fish’‘R&D drought’‘Capital drought’‘Climate extinction’

Peak water

Disappearing rivers Vanishing lakes

Groundwater mining

Shrinking glaciers

“Current estimates indicate we will not have enough water to feed ourselves in

25 years time...” – Colin Chartres, IWMI

Food embodies water...Total human water use:

7450 cubic kmsWe each use 1240t/yrIn a lifetime, we use:

100,000 tonnes

Peak Land : 2001

1% of the world’s land is being lost each year.3Peak land: FAO

24% of the world’s land is now degraded

4.8

4.85

4.9

4.95

Area per person

Megacities: mega-risks

By 2050...7.7 billion will live in citiesTotal urban area = ChinaUrban water use 2800 cu kmsCities cannot feed themselves

By 2030...

Nutrients are finite…

5 Nutrientpollution

Peak phosphorus 5

5 World P reserves

The Great Waste

5 Food wasted by avg. family in a month. (USDA)

Peak Oil

Peak oil: 2006 Predicted Fossil Fuel Availability

Algae farms for biodiesel?

Food & oil prices are in lockstep

Peak fish: 2004

“The maximum wild capture fishery potential from the world’s oceans has probably been reached .”

- FAO

Climate instability

5 4x more drought

Global soil moisture forecast 4

Scientific consensus: 15-25% less food

Knowledge drought

35 R&D stagnation

Capital droughtDoubling food production requires $90bn+ a year for 50

years: FAODeclining market power of farmers due to supply chain

globalisationDisplacement of > 1.5 billion small farmers> Need to rethink the economics of agriculture> need to change the consumer signal to encourage new

investment, sustainable systems, conservation of land, water, crops etc

The food challenge

Double global food output with:- half the present fresh water- far less land- no fossil fuels (eventually)- scarce and very costly fertilisers- less technology- insufficient investment- more drought, heat & floods.

Future conflicts

UK Ministry of Defence threat assessment

Government failures

▲ Egypt’s regime change began with food price protests

Food prices peak twice in three years. The ‘Coming Famine’ is a succession of shocks 6

Migrant tsunamiEach year:Refugees - 43m Migrants - 205m

Big challenges=

Huge opportunities‘When the going gets tough, the tough get going’

Solutions 1: reinvent food Reinvent farming & food systems:

sustainable, low-input eco-farming Reinvent the global diet:

kills fewer people, damages less planet

Reinvent cities: to recycle water, nutrients, energy

Solutions 2Double food R&D to $80bn globally a year

(from $1.6 Tr weapons’ spend)Invest $80bn to share the food knowledge

among farmers, cooks, consumersInvest $90bn+ a year in new farm & grazing

systemsEnd waste: recycle all organic waste and

water into new food & resource industriesEducate people to respect and value food.

Urban farming

Biocultures

New diet: 23,000 edible plants

Rehydrate, revegetate, recarbonise

Solutions: A Food YearA Food Year in every junior school on the

planetTeach new respect for food: how to eat for

health and sustainability

OR

? ?

Averting the Coming FamineDevelop eco-farming: more food with less

water, energy, soil, chemicalsDesign diets for health and sustainabilityCreate cities that recycle water, nutrients

into novel food systemsInspire civilisation with a new ethos and

respect for foodReward farmers for their stewardship of

the Earth’s resources.

Debate global food security on: www.sciencealert.com.au/global-

Thank you

“The Coming Famine” is published by the University of

California Press and CSIRO Publishing.

It was supported by the Crawford Fund and Land & Water Australia.

https://twitter.com/#!/ComingFamine

Follow The WorldFood Daily on http://paper.li/ComingFamine/1307825702