the day after:

THE DAY AFTER:

A CIVILIZATIONAL CRISISFROM ‘SUSTAINABLE GROWTH’ TO

SEARCH FOR SUSTAINABLE FUTURE/HUMANITY

İbrahim ÖztürkProf. Dr.

Marmara UniversityBosphorus Unv. Center for Asian Studies

THE CENTRAL MESSAGE OF THE PAPER

DO NOT AFREAD OF CRISIS BUT PUT EMPHASSI ON THE QUALITY OF

YOUR RESPONSE

THE NECESSITY IS THE MOTHER OF INVENTION

WHAT WENT WRONG? (I) THE CRISIS of 1970s... Post 2nd. WW qantitif or physical developement

saturated as of 1970s. Return on capital started decreasing. What is next?

Side efect of developmentalist / Keynesian state emerged.

Collapse of Gold Standard /End of Bretton Woods System

Oil Crisis and Stagflation

Significant convergence amongs latecomers and the leading Cs.

WHAT WENT WRONG? (II) THE RESPONSE (NOT Crisis but quality of reaction defining) The rise of Neo-Liberal Order: Deregulation, end of nation states as

unit of analysis. Governance Structures and Institutional Foundation of market under attack Trade and Finance Liberalization. Seperation of capital and the nation states.

From stake holder to share holder value maximization. The rise of virtual, finance and the bubble economy through financial

innovations. Gap widens btw. reel economy and the finance capital: Excessive

financializaiton Real Estate Bubbles fastened: Chain was cut in Japan at early 1990s

and then spreaded to the rest of the World. Unlike the first and second Industrial Revolution, now factors are

flowing from oceans to the inner lands, what has been called periphery.

FROM THE CRISIS OF ECONOMICS TO THE CRSIS OF CIVILIZATIONSThe Rise and Decline of Civilizations

Natural Law: Some How Irreversible! Demographic Structure

Alienation

Excessive Exploitation of Resources

A RISK MAP FOR SUSTAINABLE FUTURE?! Global Warming Evrironmental Degradation Food and Commodity Aging Erosion of family Excessive selfishness and atomization Lack of hope and motivation in young

generations The rise of racism Joblessness / Unemployment Inevitably rising protectionism Lack of Leadership and Governance Crisis Cold War Global institutions: Legitimacy problem

SAVING THE FUTUREFROM CRISIS TO

THE QUALITY OF REACTION

Crisis, Innovaiton Waves and Technological Breakthrougs(A Schumpeterian Creative Destruction?) 

I. Industrial Revolution (1780-1840): Mass production of textile, cotton critical input

II. IR (1840-1890): Steam Engine, Railroads, Coal

III. Waves of Change ( 1890-1940): Electricity,Steel and Iron Age

IV. Waves of Change (1940-1990): Otomobile, Mass Prod. Of Synthetic industrial goods. Energy (Oil)

V. Waves of Change (1990-?): The Age of ‘Nano’ and ‘speed revolution’ (Knowledge, Communication, Computer networks, Nano-Engineering. Semi-conductors or micro electronic)

FORCASTING THE OUTCOMES OF 6TH. KONTRADIEV WAVESMATERIAL REACTIONS

ENERGY ENVIRONMENT HEALTH/BIOTECH FOOD NANO-REVOLUTION IT(THE AGE OF HIGH RISK HIGH RETURN

(ALL NECESSARY BUT NOT SUFFICIENT!)

FACTORS IN POSIVE DECOUPLING

GROWTH DYNAMICS DEMOGRAPHIC STRUCTURE GEO-STRATEGIC POSITION KEY RESOURCES (ENERGY-COMMODITY) PROXIMITY TO THE MAJOR EMERGING

MARKETS STILL KNOWLEDGE

AS WE ARE ON THE SAME SHIP INDIVIDUAL STORIES DO NOT WORK

Overheating and resistance

Micro results&Fundamentals

Systemic and Structural Parameters

Culture / Mentality

Macro results

Water Level

BİG PİCTURE: FACİNG THE ICEBERG

QUALITY AND THE PHILOSOPHY OF REACTION TO CURRENT CRISIS

GLOBAL PROBLEM GLOBAL SOLUTION SINCE THE LAST CRISIS: OLD WINE IN OLD BOTTLE!

SHOULD GO BEYOND MATERIAL REACTIONS SUCH AS MOTIVATING GROWTH ETC.

QUESTIONING THE FUNDAMENTALS: PREMISES AND POSTULATES NEW TRINITY OF HUMAN BEING: FREEDOM, MARKET AND MORALITY (Institutionalization and

endogenizing values in economic theroy)

LISTENING TO

William Greider: The Soul of Capitalism: Opening Path to a Moral Economy, 2003. Amartya Sen, On Ethics and Economy, 1998.

1. MARKET (PRICE) MECHANISM,

2. INSTITUTIONS, AND 3. CULTURE: None of them can be sacrificed

INSTITUTIONS WORK WITH CULTUREBUT CULTURE CAN NOT BE IMPORTED.

AN INDIGENOUS LEARNING BY DOING IS UNAVOIDABLE. MODERNIST DOGMAS DO NOT WORK.HOWEVER, A UNIVERSAL LEARNING CURVE EFFECT IS QUITE USEFUL

A WORKING SYSTYEM REQUIRES SYNTHESIS BTW.

LONG ROAD TO RETORING STABILITYREFORM AND CHANGE: A “REVERSE ENGINEERING” OR RE-PRODUCTION OF THE STATUSQUO IS NOT REALISTIC A NEW MOTIVATION SCHEME through LEGITIMACY (with different mode of

distribution, participation, transparency, accountability, responsibility, regulation)

A NEW SOCİAL CONTRACT is urgent

POLITICAL STABILITY

GOOD GOVERNANCE, CAPACITY AND AUTONOMY OF STATE

TURKEY FROM THIS PERSPECTIVE1. NOT ENEMY BUT PARTNER2. NOT BURDEN BUT OPPORTUNITY 3. NOT SUBSTITUTE BUT A COMPLEMENT

INITIATING THE NEW SILK ROAD: RETURNING TO THE HISTORY: FROM SHANGHAY TO ISTANBUL

“DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS IN 2050”

LET’S MEET WHERE CONTINENTS MEET

SHIFTING TO THE CENTER

CHNAHING ASIA

GDP (bill. dollars) Pop. (000 persons)Per-capita(GDP, $)

World 59900 6,707.000 8940

Asia 16700 4,054,000 4175

Jap. 5068 127.551 39740

China 4984 1,334.740 3734

Russia 1231 141.900 8681

India 1236 1,199.062 1031

S. korea 832 48.758 17074

Turkey 614 70.538 8711

Indonezia 539 231.547 2329

Saudi Arabia 376 25.519 14744

Taivan 378 23.120 16372

UAE 223 4.908 45614

Kaynak: IMF

19801981

19821983

19841985

19861987

19881989

19901991

19921993

19941995

19961997

19981999

20002001

20022003

20042005

20062007

20082009

20102011

20122013

20142015

0

2

4

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10

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14

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22

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26

28

30

8,0

5,27,2

9,5

14,4

28,3SHARE OF ASIA IN WORLD GDP (PPP)

Japonya Yeni Sanayileşen Asya Ülkeleri Gelişmekte olan Asya ASEAN-5

EMERGENCE OF NEW MIDDLE CLASS IN ASIA

MARKET POWER

AN ENERGY CORRIDOR:A WIN-WIN STRATEGY BTW. SUPPLIERS AND CONSUMERS

HUMAN CAPITAL ABUNDANT

LABOR PRODUCTIVITY

STILL COMPARABLY CHEAPER