the decline and fall of agile - antifragile mindset to rescue

D E C L I N E A N D FA L L O F A G I L E

A N T I F R A G I L E M I N D S E T T O R E S C U E

Naresh Jain @nashjain

http://nareshjain.com

Agile is for totally dysfunctional teams!

I think you deserve something better…

I N T H E 8 0 ’ S - S O F T WA R E D E V E L O P M E N T P R O C E S S E S L O O K E D L I K E T H I S

T H I S L E D T O …

Heavyweight Process

More and more Upfront Planning

Strict Change Control

Over-reliance on documentation

Even if you saw things were going wrong, unable to React

Communication Gaps

R E S U LT ?

50+%ofProjectsfallinChallengedCategory

SucceededFailedChallenged

ChaosReport2006.StandishGroup

WeneedtodobeBerthanthis….

IT Projects

CostandTimeOverruns….

Always7%

OKen13%

SomeNmes16%

Rarely19%

Never45%

StandishGroupstudyreportedatXP2002byJimJohnson,Chairman

O"enorAlwaysUsed:20%

RarelyorNeverUsed:64%

64%ofFeaturesRarelyorNeverUsed

Howsignificantisrequirementschangeonaproject?“Theaverageprojecthas30%requirementschange”

RequirementsChangeIncreaseExponenNally

Frustration

Agile was about Embracing Uncertainty/Change via

Simplicity

Agile was about Embracing Uncertainty/Change via

Simplicity

Its origins were rooted in Antifragile thinking

O V E R T H E Y E A R S … A G I L E H A S B E C O M E V E R Y F R A G I L E

• F R A G I L E • R O B U S T &

R E S I L I E N T • A N T I F R A G I L E

A N T I F R A G I L E

F R A G I L E E a s i l y B r o k e n O r D a m a g e d B y A p p l y i n g S t r e s s / P r e s s u r e

P R O P E R T I E S O F F R A G I L E

P R O P E R T I E S O F F R A G I L E

• Dislikes variability and stress

P R O P E R T I E S O F F R A G I L E

• Dislikes variability and stress

• Seek to eliminate variability, noise, and tension

P R O P E R T I E S O F F R A G I L E

• Dislikes variability and stress

• Seek to eliminate variability, noise, and tension

• Consistency/Standardisation driven

P R O P E R T I E S O F F R A G I L E

• Dislikes variability and stress

• Seek to eliminate variability, noise, and tension

• Consistency/Standardisation driven

• Overly optimised for specific use-case/scenario

P R O P E R T I E S O F F R A G I L E

• Dislikes variability and stress

• Seek to eliminate variability, noise, and tension

• Consistency/Standardisation driven

• Overly optimised for specific use-case/scenario

• Prediction based

P R O P E R T I E S O F F R A G I L E

• Dislikes variability and stress

• Seek to eliminate variability, noise, and tension

• Consistency/Standardisation driven

• Overly optimised for specific use-case/scenario

• Prediction based

• Typically large

R E S I L I E N T A b l e To W i t h s t a n d O r R e c o v e r Q u i c k l y F r o m D i f f i c u l t C o n d i t i o n s

A N T I F R A G I L E

A n t i f r a g i l e S y s t e m G a i n s F r o m D i s o r d e r /C h a o s , R a n d o m n e s s , U n c e r t a i n t y, Vo l a t i l i t y, C o m p l e x i t y & A m b i g u i t y. T h r i v e s O n Va r i a b i l i t y O r R a n d o m n e s s

Venture Capitalist

P R O P E R T I E S O F A N T I F R A G I L E

P R O P E R T I E S O F A N T I F R A G I L E

• builds layers of redundancy to localise impact

P R O P E R T I E S O F A N T I F R A G I L E

• builds layers of redundancy to localise impact

• decentralized system with buffers & inventories (Opp. of J.I.T)

P R O P E R T I E S O F A N T I F R A G I L E

• builds layers of redundancy to localise impact

• decentralized system with buffers & inventories (Opp. of J.I.T)

• dislike consistency/standardisation

P R O P E R T I E S O F A N T I F R A G I L E

• builds layers of redundancy to localise impact

• decentralized system with buffers & inventories (Opp. of J.I.T)

• dislike consistency/standardisation

• less is more / keep it small and simple (KISS) - large is vulnerable

P R O P E R T I E S O F A N T I F R A G I L E

• builds layers of redundancy to localise impact

• decentralized system with buffers & inventories (Opp. of J.I.T)

• dislike consistency/standardisation

• less is more / keep it small and simple (KISS) - large is vulnerable

• encourage optionality by deferring decisions to the last responsible moment (hence is more opportunistic)

P R O P E R T I E S O F A N T I F R A G I L E

• builds layers of redundancy to localise impact

• decentralized system with buffers & inventories (Opp. of J.I.T)

• dislike consistency/standardisation

• less is more / keep it small and simple (KISS) - large is vulnerable

• encourage optionality by deferring decisions to the last responsible moment (hence is more opportunistic)

• dislike prediction (system based on prediction are fragile)

P R O P E R T I E S O F A N T I F R A G I L E

• builds layers of redundancy to localise impact

• decentralized system with buffers & inventories (Opp. of J.I.T)

• dislike consistency/standardisation

• less is more / keep it small and simple (KISS) - large is vulnerable

• encourage optionality by deferring decisions to the last responsible moment (hence is more opportunistic)

• dislike prediction (system based on prediction are fragile)

• safe-fail, fail-frequently, fail-diversely

Commercial Break!

Copyright © 2012, AgileFAQs. All Rights

Naresh Jain (@nashjain)

Mumbai

Tech Talks!

O V E R T H E Y E A R S … A G I L E H A S B E C O M E V E R Y F R A G I L E

W H AT ’ S W R O N G W I T H A G I L E T O D AY ? W R I T E D O W N A F E W P O I N T S B A S E D O N Y O U R E X .

Q U I C K P O L L :

S T O R Y P O I N T S A N D V E L O C I T Y V E L O C I T Y I S K I L L I N G A G I L I T Y

S T O P I T 1 :

# N O E S T I M AT E & C O N T I N U O U S D E P L O Y M E N T S C O N S TA N T LY D E L I V E R I N G VA L U E & VA L I D AT I N G I T

A N T I F R A G I L E 1 :

X

D E F I N I T I O N O F D O N E H A N G O V E R F R O M C H E C K L I S T D R I V E N P R O J E C T M A N A G E M E N T

S T O P I T 2 :

# D E V O P S B U I L D P I P E L I N E S & S A F E - FA I L R O L L O U T

A N T I F R A G I L E 2 :

X

D E AT H B Y M E E T I N G S / C E R E M O N I E S M O R E P R O C E S S I S N O T T H E A N S W E R

S T O P I T 3 :

N E G AT I VA T H R O W O U T P R A C T I C E S ( L E S S I S M O R E ) - R E D U C E D O W N S I D E

A N T I F R A G I L E 3 :

X

C O L L A B O R AT I O N A M P L I F I E D W H AT A B O U T S O L O - D E E P T H I N K I N G & A U T O N O M Y ?

S T O P I T 4 :

Think of your best work-related idea

Think of your best work-related idea

Where were you when you come up with this idea?

Think of your best work-related idea

Where were you when you come up with this idea?

How many of you were collaborating/working with other people when you come up with your

most profound idea?

H O W M A N Y P E O P L E W R O T E T H E A G I L E M A N I F E S T O ?

S E T- B A S E D D E V E L O P M E N T I N D E P E N D E N T, A U T O N O M O U S , PA R A L L E L S A F E - FA I L E X P E R I M E N T S

A N T I F R A G I L E 4 :

X

T E C H N I C A L D E B T O V E R F L O W H O W L O N G W I L L E N G I N E E R I N G E X C E L L E N C E B E I G N O R E D ?

S T O P I T 5 :

T H R O W AWAY C O D E F R E Q U E N T LY U S E F U L L - S TA C K P R O G R A M E R S T O B U I L D M I C R O S E R V I C E S

A N T I F R A G I L E 5 :

X

M I C R O - M A N A G E M E N T G O O D P E O P L E N E E D T H E I R S PA C E A N D T I M E

S T O P I T 6 :

P R O G R A M M E R A N A R C H Y O R O P E N S O U R C E M O D E L H I R E G O O D P E O P L E A N D L E T T H E M B E S E L F - D I R E C T E D

A N T I F R A G I L E 6 :

X

S M & P O A R E H A L F - A * * E D R O L E S L A C K O F O W N E R S H I P & A C C O U N TA B I L I T Y

S T O P I T 7 :

G A R A G E S TA R T U P S T Y L E L E A D E R S H I P L E T P O W E R C E N T R E S E M E R G E D Y N A M I C A L LY

A N T I F R A G I L E 7 :

X

P E R F O R M A N C E A P P R A I S A L S O M E E M P L O Y E E S W I L L A LWAY S G A M E T H E S Y S T E M

S T O P I T 8 :

“Simple, clear purpose and principles give rise to complex

and intelligent behaviour.

Complex rules and regulations give rise to simple

and stupid behaviour.”

Dee Hock

O P E N S A L A R I E S A N D S K I N I N T H E G A M E B U I L D P O L I C I E S T O M A K E L I F E E A S Y F O R M A J O R I T Y N O T M I N O R I T Y

A N T I F R A G I L E 8 :

X

S C A L I N G A N D S U S TA I N I N G N I G H T M A R E S L A R G E I S V U L N E R A B L E A N D C O M P L E X

S T O P I T 9 :

A U T O N O M O U S - A L I G N E D T R I B E S K E E P I T S M A L L A N D S I M P L E

A N T I F R A G I L E 9 :

X

C E R T I F I C AT I O N A B I L L I O N D O L L A R B U S I N E S S

S T O P I T 1 0 :

G E N E R A L I S I N G S P E C I A L I S T S W I T H H A N D S - O N S K I L L S S P E C I A L I S T S C A N B E C O M E Q U I C K LY I R R E L E VA N T

A N T I F R A G I L E 1 0 :

X

A N D T H E L I S T G O E S O N …

T H A N K Y O U !Q U E S T I O N S ?

Naresh Jain @nashjain

http://nareshjain.com