the decline of power 2013: a complex problem of multiple scales

The Decline of Power: The Decline of Power: A complex problem of A complex problem of multiple scalesmultiple scales

Luis CASASUSLuis CASASUS

Polytechnic University Polytechnic University of Madrid,Spainof Madrid,Spain

Rielo Institute for Rielo Institute for Integral Integral

DevelopmentDevelopment

Monday November 4th2013United Nations, New York

Thesis:

We show how Decline of Power can be explained or at least illustrated by the interplay between Influence and Power leading to the appearance of new actors in the various scales of decision-making and power-holding. .

A simple nonlinear model is proposed to analyze this process from the viewpoint of complexity.

Outline of the Presentation

1. What is power?1. What is power?

2. Decline of Power according to Moisés Naím and other authors.

3. An interpretation and a quantitative model.

4. Conclusions.

1. What is power?1. What is power?*Power is an important and elusive concept.Difficult conceptualization and measurement.*Alvin Toffler: violence, wealth and knowledge.*Keith Dowding: outcome and social power.*Hard power and soft power.*Who is the power holder? Individual, group, political party,…

1. What is power?1. What is power?Power is the ability to act or the ability to get someone to do something you want done.

Power is the ability to direct or prevent the current of future actions of other groups or individuals.Influence is the ability to affect the behaviors of others in a particular direction.

Power is the potential or capacity to influence.

Outline of the Presentation

1. What is power?

2. Decline of Power 2. Decline of Power according to Moisés Naím according to Moisés Naím and other authors.and other authors.

3. An interpretation and a quantitative model.

4. Conclusions.

2. Decline of Power according 2. Decline of Power according to Moisés Naím and other to Moisés Naím and other authors.authors.

According to Naím, Power operates through four channels:

Muscle + Code + Pitch + Reward

Coertion Moral Obligation Persuasion

2. Decline of Power according 2. Decline of Power according to Moisés Naím and other to Moisés Naím and other authors.authors.

According to Naím, Power operates through four channels:

Muscle + Code + Pitch + Reward

And three revolutions seek to reduce the barriers that protect those channels:

More + Mobility + Mentality

Outline of the Presentation

1. What is power?

2. Decline of Power according to Moisés Naím and other authors.

3. An interpretation and a 3. An interpretation and a quantitative model.quantitative model.

4. Conclusions.

3. An interpretation and a 3. An interpretation and a quantitative model.quantitative model.

Probably, the main contribution of Naím is his clever analysis of the effects of the three revolutions. And possibly the main work is left to do: How do we positively manage More + Mobility + Mentality?

Complexity of the individual is awesome and a reliable model of person is necessary to bring about a better understanding of Mentality revolution, including spiritual, educational and family factors. This is one of the goals of RIID.

3. An interpretation and a 3. An interpretation and a quantitative model.quantitative model.

-Quantitative models-

Many different approaches:

Phase Plane

Probability Theory

Theory of Games

Network Analysis

Graph Theory…

3. An interpretation and a quantitative 3. An interpretation and a quantitative model.model.

The Social Phase Plane (Wang & Jiang, 2013) represents the comprehensive national power model with time delays.

Social development region, Social turbulence region and Social collapse Region can be seen.

Development

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Note that the three revolutions

More + Mobility + Mentality

represent properties of micro-agents and this naturally leads to a multiscale approach:

Properties of micro-agents

Properties of groups

3. An interpretation and a 3. An interpretation and a quantitative model.quantitative model.

We now derive a family of models taking into account the evolution of both Influence and Power.

Each point (x,y) of the plane represents a micro-agent. Power of a group is represented as a “hill” on the plane. Thus we follow a multiscale approach.

3. An interpretation and a 3. An interpretation and a quantitative model.quantitative model.

These models are: reactive-diffusive, nonlinear, and time-dependent.

Diffusion

Reaction +Diffusion

3. An interpretation and a 3. An interpretation and a quantitative model.quantitative model.

3. An interpretation and a 3. An interpretation and a quantitative model.quantitative model.

3. An interpretation and a 3. An interpretation and a quantitative model.quantitative model.

3. An interpretation and a 3. An interpretation and a quantitative model.quantitative model.

*The effect of barriers is represented in the coefficients a, b, c,d and e and possibly in their dependence of time.*The effect of influence is mainly repressive.*This model does not distinguish between the four channels of Power.*Has the total power a constant value? *How it disappears?

3. An interpretation and a 3. An interpretation and a quantitative model.quantitative model.

Dependence of initial conditions.

Dependence of boundary conditions.

Dr. Colasanti’s question: The Decline of Power: a Symptom of a Growing Disease or a Sign of Transformation?...

A (necessarily) modest and prudent answer:

3. An interpretation and a 3. An interpretation and a quantitative model.quantitative model.

It really depends on the coefficients!

And coefficients in turn depend on our model of Person and a suitable concept for Power.

3. An interpretation and a 3. An interpretation and a quantitative model.quantitative model.

Some simulations 1/4

The big fish eats the small fish…at least for now

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Some simulations 2/4

Two gangs share the cake…a third one is not allowed

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Few people with great power …and many people with some power

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Three “clusters” of Power interacting

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Outline of the Presentation

1. What is power?

2. Decline of Power according to Moisés Naím and other authors.

3. An interpretation and a quantitative model.

4. Conclusions.4. Conclusions.

Naím’s book is full of illustrative examples suggesting the plausibility of his arguments regarding a possible End of Power.

One of the fascinating issues is the subtle interdependence of the changing (emerging, disappearing,…) subjects of Power at different scales of size and time. This has been partly reflected in our simple model.

4. Conclusions

Thank you! luis.casasus@upm.es