the dynamics behind transitions in food chains 15th tim ... · pdf filethe dynamics behind...

Lifting the veil of social unrest about food

The dynamics behind transitions in food chains

15th Febr. 2012, Jan Buurma, Wil Hennen, Eveline van Mil, Tim Verwaart and Volkert Beekman

Acknowledgement

This study was sponsored by:

Wageningen UR

Investment programme

Complex Adaptive Systems

Emerging science

Outline

Transitions in food chains

Unveil the secrets of change

Transition theory: human agency?

Dramaturgical analysis● Who voices what, when and how?

Agent-based simulation● What makes social systems change?

Lifting the veil

Transitions in food chains

Public debates in the Netherlands

1998-2005 Maximum Residue Limits (MRL) Government ignored residue problems Retailers imposed MRL requirements

2001-2007 Animal Welfare Standards Criticism on housing, castration, etc. Retailers adopted ‘Better Life’ label

Transition theory

What about: human agency?societal controversies?issue management?

Dramaturgical analysis

Content analysis (e.g. newspaper articles)Who says what, to whom, why, how?

Dramaturgical approach (i.e. theatre performance)Scripting = story lines and actorsSetting = locations and discoursesStaging = parties involvedPlots = crucial moments

Flow chart of two Dutch public debates

Speech acts

Type of act 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Total

Appeal 3 3 2 1 9Warning 3 2 1 2 1 1 10Shaming 4 2 2 4 5 2 1 20Defense 3 1 1 4 1 3 1 14Vision 3 3 4 2 3 1 16Coalition 3 3 1 1 1 9Concern 3 2 1 6Solution 3 5 1 7 16

Total 16 11 7 19 8 11 8 8 4 8 100

Visions and coalitions transform criticism into solutions

Specific roles

Actor/agent

Consum

er ‐ low co

sts

Farm

er ‐ low co

sts

NGO ‐ strategist

Feed/m

eat industry

Farm

er ‐ progressive

Retailer ‐ strategist

Retailer ‐ spokesman

NGO ‐ campaigner

Consum

er‐ responsive

Consum

er ‐ activistic

Total

V I C T I M S S A V I O U R S P R O S E C U T O R SType of act   

Appeal 4 3 1 1 9Warning 1 2 1 1 4 1 10Shaming 2 1 16 1 20Defense 4 2 1 4 1 1 1 14Vision 9 1 3 2 1 16Coalition 5 1 2 1 9Concern 5 1 6Solution 5 6 3 1 1 16

Total 12 28 13 14 1 3 22 4 3 100

V I C T I M S S A V I O U R S P R O S E C U T O R S

Agent-based simulation

Opinion dynamics Agents have position x on interval [0, 1]

0 = low meat prices1 = high animal welfare

Agents meet and can update their opinions:

x(t-1)+µ(x’(t-1)–x(t-1)) if |x–x’| < dx(t) =

x(t-1) if |x–x’| d

Where µ is convergence parameter, 0 µ 0.5d is threshold = openness to others

Influence of events

Events? (e.g. incidents, scandals)

NO

YES

Three classes of agents

Citizens / consumers● 1000 (8 subclasses)

NGOs, food chain parties, authorities● 20 (4 subclasses)

Primary producers● 200 (5 subclasses)

Canvas of food chain model

NGO

Ideas and challenges

Analysis of other cases/issues pig production, ...

NGOs, food chain parties, authorities types, roles, interaction

Opinion dynamics citizens and farmers mechanisms, social structures

Formulation of speech acts in model> types, frequencies, effects

Lifting the veil...

Incidents and emotions(media and citizens)

Campaigns and visions(NGOs2x and industry)

Systems and segments(farmers and retailers)

Strong NGOs are a blessing for the nation

Thank you for your attention

We welcome suggestions for improvement and interesting issues to be explored with our model

Contact:jan.buurma@wur.nl