the end of 20th century politics - in.gov · by ryan nees and brian a. howey ... and a resume...

30-second commercialera heads into the ageof Tivo and mobilityBy RYAN NEESand BRIAN A. HOWEY INDIANAPOLIS-Thefinalmomentsof20thCenturypoliticstickedawayonAug.10,2006.Onthatday,BradEllsworthwaspledgingnottotakeaCongressionalpayraise.U.S.Rep.MikeSodrelwasbloggingfromtheU.S.-Mexicanborder.TheRNCCwasaccusingBaronHillofcomparingimmigrantstorodents.Gov.MitchDanielswasputtingthefinishingtouchesonIndiana’sstrategicenergyplan. Forontheverynextdayand500milesaway,U.S.Sen.GeorgeAllen,R-Va.,andaprohibitivefavoriteforre-electionaswellasapoised2008presidentialcontender,wascampaigninginBreaks,Va.,whenhespotteda20-year-oldJamesWebbforSenatevolunteer,S.R.Sidarth,withavideocam(picturedtop,left,withSen.Allen). “Thisfellowhere,overherewiththeyellowshirt,macaca,orwhateverhisnameis.He’swithmyopponent.He’sfollowingusaroundeverywhere.Andit’sjustgreat,”Allensaidtoamusedsupporters. Withinhours,Sidarth’svideomadeitontoYou

Tube,thequotetakenasanethnicslur(macacaisamonkeyandanAfri-canracialslur).Itquicklybecameoneofthemostwatchedvideosontheinternet,andwithindaysbecamethefodderforthecablenewsoutletsandnetworks. WebbwouldgoontodefeatSen.Allen

The end of 20th Century politicsWednesday, Dec. 20, 2006V13 N19

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By MARK CURRY WASHINGTON-Tendays.That’showlongEvanBayhownedtheleadroleofthenon-Hillarycentristintheunfoldingdramathatisthe2008Demo-craticpresidentialcandidateselectionprocess. TheafternoonofOct.12musthavebeenagiddytimeforthesenator’spoliticalstaff,thecrackpro-fessionalswhoover

“We have a two-year budget, not a 10-year budget. I believe that taking care of people on welfare should not be a for-profit enterprise.” - Speaker B. Patrick Bauer

Evan, they hardly knew ye

HOWEY Political Report Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Page 2 Wednesday, Dec. 20, 2006

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thepastyearworkedinthewingstoelevateBayh’sprominenceonthena-tionalstage.Inasurpriseannounce-mentmadeearlierthatday,formerVirginiaGov.MarkWarnerdeclaredhewasleavingtheracetospendmoretimewithhisteenagedaughters.Formonths,bothBayhandWarnerclamoredtooccupyalmostexactlythesamepoliticalrole-thenon-Hillary,amoderatewithexecutiveexperienceandaresumedemonstratingtheabil-itytowinvotesinaredstate.ReportsindicateBayhwasimmediatelyonthetelephone,workingtowooWarnersupporters. “We are very pleasedinthereceptionthatSenatorBayhisget-tingfromformerWarnersupporters,”Bayh’scommunicationsdirector,DanPfeiffer,toldHPRatthetime.“Thereisclearlyanappetiteforsomeonewithaprovenrecordofwinninginredstates.” Butitwasnottobe.OnOct.22thebrightlightsfocusedinsteadonU.S.Sen.BarackObamaofIllinois.TheDemocraticsenatorknownforcaptivatingcrowdsinKennedy-esquefashionannouncedonNBC’s“MeetthePress”thathewasconsideringenter-ingthefray.SuddenlyEvanBayhhadarealfightonhishands-perhapsthegreatestchallengeinhispoliticalcareertodate-tosomehowcompeteforattention(andfunding)onastageoccupiedbynoneotherthanHillaryClinton,JohnEdwards,JohnKerryand,finally,BarackObama. Last Friday night,lessthantwoweeksafterestablishingapresi-dentialexploratorycommittee,theboyfromShirkievilletelephonedsupport-erstosayhe’dhadenough.Hewasdroppingfromtherace.ThedecisiontowithdrawwascondensedintoaweekafterduelingwithObamaforattentioninNewHampshireonDec.9-10.Followingthat,newIowapollingdatashowedhimbarelyregistering. “Theoddswerealwaysgoingtobeverylongforarelativelyun-knowncandidatelikemyself,alittlebitlikeDavidandGoliath.”BayhsaidinastatementreleasedSaturday.“...

IconcludedthatduetocircumstancesbeyondourcontroltheoddswerelongerthanIfeltIcouldresponsiblypursue.” TheformerHoosiergovernor-andhisincredibleteamofpoliticalprofessionalsandcitizenvolunteers-wouldhavehadtoovercomeconsider-ableobstaclesiftheywantedtoclaimaplaceamongthecelebrityfront-run-ners.“Thiswasn’taboutnothavingthesupportofhisfamily,”asourceclosetotheBayhcamptoldHPR.“Thiswasn’taboutnotbeingabletoraisethemoney.Itwasn’taboutnotbeingabletoenlistthestaffandarmyofvolunteers. ‘Itwasabout-inevitably-comingupshortandlettingdownallthosefolkswhohavedevotedtheirtime,talentandtreasuretothecause,”saidthesource,whoaskednottobeidentified. Evan Bayh maybepopularinIndiana,butheislargelyunknownbeyondourborders.Evenafterspend-

ingamonthofdaysoverdozensoftripstothekeystatesofIowaandNewHampshireBayhfailedtoregis-termuchmorethanastatisticalblipinpollafterpoll.Eachlowrankingdiminishedhisprospects.AsformerFortWayneMayorPaulHelmketoldHPRinmid-November,keyDemocrats-thegatekeepersandmoney-makers-were“lookingforsomeonewhocanwin.” In the past two yearsSen.Bayhcertainlyexhibitedawinningworkethic.Histhousand-hourefforttobuildsupportforapresidentialcampaigntookhimtomorethantwodozenstates.Heappearedoncount-lessTVnewsprograms,offeredinter-viewstonewspapersandmagazines,touredtheDemocraticrubberchickencircuit,andcampaignedonbehalfofstateandnationalcandidatesacrossthecountry.InIowaandNewHamp-

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bylessthan1percent,andtheSenatewouldgoDemocratic

51-49,shiftingthebalanceofpowerintheUnitedStates.It’sonereasonwhyTIMEMagazinecited“You”andYouTubeasitsper-sonoftheyear. WhereasPresidentLyndonB.Johnson’s“Daisy”ad(showingalittlegirlpluckingpetalsoffadaisyfollowedbyamushroomcloud)openedtheeraofthe30-secondad(playingonlyonceonSept.7,1964,duringthe“MovieoftheWeek,”)SimonRosenbergoftheNewDemocraticNetwork,believes“Macaca”essentiallyopenedtheeraof21stCenturypolitics. “Ibelievethegreatvideothatisgo-ingtochangetheelectionof2008isprob-ablygoingtobegeneratedbyanaverageperson,”RosenbergtoldtheseventhannualL.KeithBulenSymposiumonAmericanPoliticsatIUPUIonMonday.Hecalledthe“Macaca”YouTubevideo“amarginalevent”thatliterallychangedthebal-anceofpowerintheSenate.

You ain’t seen nothin’ yet And,asPresidentReaganwouldsay,“Youain’tseennothin’yet.” ThemediaitselfischangingintheUnitedStates.Rosenbergbelievesthatnewspapersasweknowthemwillbegonewithin10years.It’sonereasonwhyIndianapolisStarEditorDennisRyersonisreplacingreportersandphotographerswithreader-gener-atedcontent.It’sthereasonMarionCountyProsecutorCarlBrizziconductedoneofthefirsttrueAmericanwebcam-paigncomponents. “We’veleftthebroadcasteraofpoliticalcommu-nicationsandwe’removingtoonethatismuchdifferent,”Rosenbergsaid.“Broadcastwassortoftop-downfromonetomany.Wenowhaveamediaenvironmentthatisvery,verydifferent.Let’stalkaboutnewdistributionsystems.Whenwegrewup,therewerethreetelevisonchannels.Andnow,whatarewefacing?HowmanydoIhaveinmyhome?TIVOisveryshortlygoingtoallowyoutostartrecordingvideoofftheinternet,meaningyouwillhavebilionsofchannelsonyourtelevison,nothundreds.Sothemostsignificantthinghappeningisthstwe’removingfromalowbrandwithinternettoahighbandwithinternet.” Rosenberg,aformersoldierinBillClinton’sLittleRockWarRoom,explained,“Beforeitwastextandphotos.Butnowwe’reseeinghighbandwithactivities.Youcan

moveontotheinternetwithmusic,televisionandfilm.WearenowenteringtheYouTubeInternetAge.YoucanseebroadbandathomeiscrossingintoAmericanswithhugeaccess.Thereis50percentbroadbandpenetration.Ifit’s60percentofhouseholds,itwillbe70-75percentofpeople.”

And mobile media Thenthereismobilemedia.“Thenexttwoyears,there’sgoingtobeanextraordinaryexplosionofmobilemedia-cellphones,mo-bilephones,internet,”Rosenbergsaid.“Fortymillionpeoplewillhaveaccessbytheendof2008tobroadbandvideoontheirtelephones.That’sathirdofthevoterswhoaregoingtobeabletolookatrealtimevideoonYouTube.Thatwillbearapidresponsetollforapoliticalcampaign.Ahugepartoftheinter-netisuser-generatedcontentthatpeoplearesharing.” And,Rosenbergpredicted,“Wehavealsoarrivedataneraofcheapnewtools.Thisis

veryimportant.In2002,therewerethreemillionblogs.MoreDemocratsgettheirnewsfromblogsthanfromanyothersourceotherthantraditionalmainstream.Thisisnotafringemediaanymore,thisisadominantmediaform.” HecalledMarkosMoulitsasZúniga,whoblogsontheDailyKos“themostinfluentialDemocraticop-erativeinAmer-

icatoday.”AsMichaelKrempaskyofRedStates.Orgobserved,“Likehimorhatehim,Koshasalotofpowerbe-hindhimandopportunitybeforehim.HeishelpingDemocratsallacrossthecountrytofeelengaged,andhaveanimpact.”IndianaDemocratshostedthe“TakingDownWords”blogthatplayedtothechoir,whileearn-ingJenniferWagnerthereputationofbeing,perhaps,thenastiestwomaninIndianapolitics,thoughtheblog’simpactofhowmanyvotesitattractedandcandidateselectedforthepartyareunknown.

Tivo killed the 30-second star ButtherealgamechangerisTivo.SeveralyearsagoatDePauwUniversity,HPRaskedDr.JamesThurberofAmericanUniversityabouttheimpactoftheTVsynthe-

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sizerthatallowsuserstoaccessanyTVshowatanytime,andfilteroutthecommercials.Asthe20thCenturyslippedaway,ThurberwasunabletogaugetheimpactofTivo. ButRosenbergsaid,“WithTivo,wehaveanenor-mousincreaseinDVRs-digitalvideorecording-inhome.Almosthalfofallvoterswillhavetheabilitytoskipalltelevisoncommercialsin2008.Weallknowthepercentageofpeoplewhowillskipallpoliticaltelevisioncommercials.It’sgoingtobe100percent.Thisistheendofthe30-sec-ondspot.Aminorityofpeoplewatchingtelevisionatanymomentin2008willbewatchinglivebroadcasttelevision,withtheincrediblepenetrationofcableandsatelliteandDVR,wearenowenteringaperiodwhere30secondspotsarenolongergoingtobethedominantformofpoliticalcommunication.Who’srunapoliticalcampaigninthatenvi-ronment?It’swideopenforallofusaswegoforward.” AsHPRreportedonNov.16,IndianaHouseDemo-cratswentmostlytodirectmailin2006,sendingoutmorethan2millionpiecesin170differentmailings.HouseRe-publicansincreasedtheirdirectmailfrom700,000in2004to1.6millionin2006. “Inaprimary,directmailisclearlyamuchbettermethodthanTV,”DemocraticChairmanDanParkersaid.“Weknowwho’sgoingtovoteinaprimary.”ButParkerrefusedtosaythatTVisadeadmedium.“TVsaved(StateRep.)TimHarris,”Parkersaid,addingthatusinglocalnetworkaffili-atesisinefficient.“TheyspentalotofmoneyonIndianapolisTVtoreach8,000peopleoutofamillion.” Rosenbergnotes,“ThisyearGooglewillsellasmanyadsasallofABC.Googlehasalreadybecomeoneofthemajormediaadvertisersinalltheworld.Theadscanbemicrotargeted,literallyzipplusfour.It’sahugedifferen-tiation.Internetadvertisingisreallygoingtobetransform-ingpolitics.”

IndianaOnMessage Review Whichgetsustotheprojectweofferedupamonthago.WesternHighSchooljuniorRyanNees,whoforgedtheIndianaOnMessagewebsitethathaspartneredwithHPR,forthefirsttimeinIndianahistory,compiledmostofthelegislativeandcongressionalTVandradioadsthatairedinIndianaduringthe2006electioncycle. Asinnovativeasthisprojectwas,ifRosenbergistobebelieved,2006maybethelastcyleofthe30-secondad,whichCNNreportedranintheEvansvilleTVmarketfivehoursafterthepollsclosedonDec.7.Therewas$2.1billionspentonTVadvertisingnationallyduringthe2006electioncycle,arecord,withIndianacongressionalcandi-datesspendingmorethan$13.4million,accordingtotheCenterforResponsivePolitics.Another$12millionwas

spentbyindependentgroupssuchasMoveOn(whichspent$245,000againstU.S.Rep.ChrisChocola)andpoliticalparties,wherenationalRepublicansgavetheIndianaGOP$1.1million. VanderbiltUniversityProf.JohnGeer,editorofTheJournalofPolitics,alsoappearedattheBulenSymposiumasadefenderofattackads. “Theyhaveincreaseddramaticallyinthelast40years,”saidGeerbecausethe“partiesarepolarizing”ina“highlycompetitiveenviron-ment.”Hesaidthatattackadsflourishbecausethe“newsmediaisahugeculprit.” “Negativeadsgetnewsmediacoverage,”Geersaid.“Journalistsandpunditslookforthemostoutrageousadandtalkaboutit.It’sthecraziest,mostviciousadsthatgetattention.”Inthe2004Bush-Kerryads,the“swiftboatads”gotfarmoremediaattentionthanthosediscussingtheIraqWar.

AgoodexamplewasanRNCCad(above)runonbehalfofU.S.Rep.JohnHostettlerthataccusedSpeakerNancyPelosiofplanningtoinstallthe“homosexualagen-da.” Geer,however,defendsattackads,notingthat70percentoftheDeclarationofIndependencewasanattackonKingGeorgeIII.Geersaidthatbetween1960and2000,about75percentofpoliticaladswereattackadswithis-sues,comparedto50percentofpositiveads.Documenta-tionwas8to1morelikelyinanegativeadthanapositiveone.“Attackadshavetohaveabasisoftruth,whereaspositiveadsgetawaywithallkindsofstuff.” HPRandIndianaOnMessageprovidesthisanalysisforpoliticaladsinthe2006electioncycle.

IN-02: Ads don’t have to be memorable. Someadstookonanearlycult-likefollow-ingamongactivistsandjunkiesalike,notablytheDCCC’s“ChocolateforChocola,”anaddepictingaseriesoflovenotesex-

HOWEY Political Report Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Wednesday, Dec. 20, 2006Page 5

changedbetweentheCongressmanandoiltycoons,whocamecompletewithcigarsandcowboyhats,bearinggiftsofflowersandchocolates.Butbyandlarge,theadswereforgettable.ThoughforDemocraticmediaconsultants(liketheFennGroup,whoichcutDonnelly’sads,andMur-

phyPutnamShorr,thefirmemployedbytheDCCCintheSecond),that’snotthepoint.Success,theyargue,isn’tintrinsictothememorabil-ityoftheads.Movingpublicopinionisdoneatasubcon-sciouslevelthatdependsnotonemotionorhumor(tacticsoftenemployedbycorporate

admakersonMadisonStreet),butrepetitionand“per-suasion”. Therepetitionrequiredmakesitamoreexpensivemethod,bothbecauseit’sbettersuitedtobroadcasttelevi-sionandbecausetheadhastoberunmanymoretimes,andmakestheadconsultant’sjobbothfareasierandfarlesscreative…butitseemedtoworkinIN-02.Voterscouldn’tpickoutanindividualadthatconvincedthemofChrisChocola’sspecialinterest-back-slappingkindofcor-ruption,buttheimpressionwasclearlycemented.

Republicans: Trash Joe Inanyotheryear,ChrisChocola’sseriesoffactuallydevastatingtaxattackadsmighthavesunkJoeDonnelly’scampaign.ButtheirshearshrillnessbackfiredonChocola,andcouldhaveinfactbeencounterproductivetoChocola’scause,kindlyre-inforcingDonnelly’sprimaryargumentthatChocolawasanout-of-touchnega-tivepolitician,concernedlesswithpeopleandmorewithhisownpower.Theirnastinessturnedvotersoff,evenagainstChocola.Forapoliticianwithlittlegoodwillinthecommunity,andwhosecareerwasdueinlargeparttonegativecampaigning,thespotsprovedtobetoonasty.Thoughasubjectiveline,Chocolaundoubtedlycrossedit.

Democrats: Too nice Thoughmuchhasbeenmade(byjournalists,pri-marily)aboutthenastinessoftheMarionCountyProsecu-tor’srace,itshouldhavebeenfarnastierifMelinaKennedyhopedtowin.SheshouldhaveswunglikeacudgelatBrizzicaseaftercaseofreleasedmurderer.Itwouldhavebeeneasy,andthepapertrailcertainlyvoluminousenoughtocreatetheimpressionthatBrizziwasweakoncrime,that,

infact,hewaspersonallyresponsibleforpartofthecounty’supswingincrime.Inahighcrimeyear,duringaDemocraticwave,inanincreasinglyDemocraticcounty,itpsbeguilingtocontemplatehowawell-fundedcandidatepersonallyanointedbyBartPetersonmanagedtolosethisrace.Themostprofound,andexpen-sive,problemwashertelevisionads. Insteadofrunningthundering,grainyblack-and-whiteadslinkingCarlBrizzitothemostdepravedofIndia-napolisthugs,Kennedy’scampairedsophomoricadsthatwereweakbothonproductionandmessage. WhenBrizzi’scampranspotswithtough-guycandidateCarlstruttingdownsmoke-filledalleys,Ken-nedyrespondedbytryingtoframetheraceassomehowareferendumonleadershipstyle,notprosecutorialmisjudg-mentandneglect,theonlycompelling(andabounding)reasonsthevotershadtooustBrizzi.KennedyallegedthatBrizzi’sbadjudgmentallowedrepeatcriminalstowalkoutofjailandgoonmurderousrampages.HowmanyofthosecriminalsarewalkingIndianapolisneighborhoodsnow?It’saquestionthatKennedyneverbotheredtopose. Instead,shewastedonespotpointingoutthattheprosecutor’sofficeemployed150deputieswhoneeded“direction[and]training.”Aradioad--Iswear,I’mnotmakingthisup--actuallylecturedvotersonthefinepointsofassetforfeiture,atermtheyall“shouldknow.”Itper-sonifiedKennedy’scampaignperfectly. Brizziwastheonecandidatewhodistinctlymovedfromthe20thCentury30-secondads,to21stCenturyin-

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ternetads.DevelopedbyCarmel-basedMediaSoft,Brizzisupporterswouldgetane-mailwithalinkthatread:“ClickheretogetapersonalmessagefromCarlBrizzi.”TheywouldthenfindBrizzi,withlogos,talkingdirectlytothem.Oradeputysheriff,orathree-partcartoonseries.ItwasincrediblyinnovativestufftakenrightoutoftheYouTubeplaybook,andavailabletobepassedonfromsupportertopotentialvoter.“Idon’tknowofanywhereelsewheretherewasafullwebcampaign,”saidJenniferHallowell,Brizzi’scampaignmanagerandexecutivedirectorofIndianaGOP.Andtheimpact?“Hardtomeasure,”Hallowellsaid.“Wegotsomebuzzoffit.Weheardfrompeoplewhohadthemforwarded.”Watchformoreandmorecampaignstogothisroutein2007and2008.

Ellsworth ran an ‘incumbent’ campaign BradEllsworth,congressman-electinthe8thCD,rananear-perfectincumbentcampaign,despitetheobvi-ous:hewasachallenger.Yettheleadthathestartedwithhemaintainedthroughoutthecampaign,cedingbarelyaninch.OneofhisbestdecisionswasundoubtedlyhiringDixon-DavisMediaGroup,whowent9-0nationally,winningClaireMcCaskill’sMissouriSenaterace,twogovernorships,andsevenotherCongressionalraces.IntheNinth,Sodrel’smediafirm,DawsonMcCarthyNelson,went4-4,andBaronHill’s,McMahon,Squier&Associates,went3-2.FennCom-munications,whichmanagedDonnelly’sads,won7ofits12races.Chocola’sfirm,StevensReedCurcio&Potholm,wonexactlyhalfofits14races.

Lugar’s positive message DickLugar’sadsgotafairbitofpresssimplybecauseitwasuniversallyacceptedthathedidn’tneedtorunmedia.Soitwasrefreshing,then,whenhespentmil-lionstospurdiscussionandeducatevotersontheprofoundforeignpolicyandenergychal-lengesconfrontingthenation.ButsomenationalRepublicansmustbewishingthatLugarhadchippedinmoretotheNRSC(Forperspective,attheendofOctober,HillaryClintonhadgiven$1milliondollarstotheDSCC.Lugarhadtransferred$75,000totheNRSC.),whichcouldscarcelyaffordtogoontheairintheexpensivePhiladelphiaandNewYorkmediamarketsthatmighthaveputTomKeanJr.overthetopagainstfreshmanNewJerseyDemocratBobMenendez,

awinthatwouldhavekeptLugarthechairmanoftheSen-ateForeignRelationsCommittee.Itwasabitterironyforthepartythathadenjoyed,evenboastedabout,3-to-1(orgreater)cashadvantagesforyears.

The Worst ad Inourview,theworstadofthecyclewasFran-cieMetzger’sassaultadagainstStateRep.TeriAustin.ItrangrainyfootageofimmigrantsthataccusedAustinofaidingandabettinglawbreakerforeigners.ItwasaRepublicanattempttoex-ploitthegreatest2006campaignfantasy:thatimmigrationwoulddeliverpluralities.Theproblemisthattheissueislargelyafederalone,notonewheretheIndianaGeneralAssemblyplayedahugerole.AttheCongressionallevel,thelastinglegacyofU.S.Reps.Chocola,SodrelandHostettleristhatLatinosvoted70percentDemocratic,upabout20percentover2004.NotonlydidtheseHoo-

sierRepublicanslose,theymayhavealienatedformanyelectioncyclestocomethefastestgrowingdemographicgroupinthenation.Rosenbergeexplained,“Thiscountryhasbecomemoresouthernandwestern,moresuburbanandexurban;thenationmorespanish-speakingandim-migrant.Thetransformationofourpeopleiscreatingisanewkindofpolitics:70ofthe100largestcitiesarelocatedintheSouthandWest.In2032,iftheCensusprojectionscontinue,ArizonawillhaveasmanyElectoralCollegeseatsasNewYork;Hispanicswillbe25percentoftheAmericanelectorate.Today,theyrepresent9percent.”

Best radio ad U.S.Rep.MarkSouderpostedaradioadadvis-ingTomHayhurstsupportersonhowtogettoGrabill.HesupplieddirectionsfrombothFortWayneandNewHaven,pointingoutcemeterieswherehisancestorsareburiedandwheretoparkwhentheygotthere.ItwasvintageMarkSouder,whodespiteamid-Octoberscare,cruisedeasilytovictoryagainstawell-financedopponent.

Epilogue SimonRosenbergexplained:“RememberhowtheBoomerschangedAmericanculture?We’vegotanewgenerationcomingalongthatisjustasbiginnumericalamountscalledtheMillenials,26andyounger.Thewaytheydopolitics,thewaytheydomedia-theydon’treadnewspapers,theyliveoffthesesmalldevices.Anymove-menthasgottofocusonMillenials.GeneralassumptionsguidingAmericanpoliticsaregoingtocometoanend.Bothpoliticalpartiesandbothideologicalmovementsareatthebeginningofthedawnofanewera.”v

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shirehefrequenteddininghallsandcoffeehouses,at-tendedfundraisersandbarbecues,hostedmeetandgreets,andmunchedonporkchopsattheStateFair.InIndianaherolleduphissleevesandcampaignedfornearlytwoweeksonbehalfofcongressionalandstatecandidates. Hecontinuedtocomeupshortinthepolls,howev-er,andtheprospectofabrutalbattleloominginthehomestretchmayhavejustbeentoomuch. “So you spend 12-14 monthsinawhirlwindoftravel,fundraising,missingvotes,missingyourfamily,andwhatdoyouhavetoshowforit?”thesourcesaid.“You’rebroke,exhaustedandyou’vestrainedyourfamilytothemax.” Bayh’sannouncementthatheisleav-ingtheraceclosesaremarkablechapterinhiscareer.Duringthepasttwoyearshisworkonthehustingshasbolsteredanalreadysolidreputationamongmoderatesinthepartyandhasearnedhimfriendsandsupportersatalllevels.HehasgainedstatusthroughhiseffortstoshapetheDemocraticagendaonmattersofnationalsecurity,andthereisreasontosuspecthewillbeintheforefrontwhentheupcomingCongressdebatesenergyandfairtradepolicy. As2ndCongressionalDistrictChairmanButchMorganobserved,“EvanBayhknowshowtotake,readandinterpretpolls.Hispoliticalin-stinctsandjudgmenthavebeensolidallhislife.” Themuch-toutedsuccessoftheCampBayhimmersionprogrammaywellbeoneofBayh’smostsignificantcontributionstotheAmericanpoliti-calprocess.Theprogramtrainedandsupplied50staff-erstotargetedlocal,stateandnationalracesinthekeypresidentialstatesofIowa,NewHampshire,SouthCarolinaandNevadaaswellasinseveralIndianacontests.Whileotherpresidentialcontendersprovidedastafferortwointhepast,none`dedicatedsomuchtimeandtalent,andtosuchgreateffect.StatepartyofficialsinNewHampshireandIowawereparticularlygrateful,andtheprogramiscertaintobeduplicatedinthefuture. “He was certainly the onewiththemostskininthegameuptothispoint,atleastinIowa,”IowastateSen.JeffDanielsontoldU.S.News&WorldReport.“Hehadthemostinvestedandwasbuildingarealframework.” OneofthegreatestassetsoftheBayhcampaignwashispoliticalstaff,whichwasoftendescribedbythoseinthebusinessasoneofthebestassembledbyanycan-didate.Findingworkafterafailedcampaignisnotalwayseasy,accordingtoNancyToddTyner,apoliticalconsultantwhospecializesingamingcampaigns.

“It’sarelativelysmallgroupofconsultantsatthatlevelandifyou’refriendlywiththenextcamp,you’rein,ifyou’renotfriendlyorhavehadapastfeudyou’relookingtoworkinanadagency-orsomething,”Tynersaid.“It’saroughfield” National Journal’s Hotline reportedTuesdaymorningthatseveralstaffersofBayh’sleadershipPAC,AllAmericaPAC,havealreadybeencontactedbyothercam-paigns. “Allofthepoliticalstaffislookingfornewjobs,”explainedDanPfeiffer,communicationsdirector.“Sen.Bayhhasbeengenerousandishelpingpeoplewithsalariesandrecommendations.Iamleavingandamtalkingtopeopleaboutwhatcomesnextforme.” MembersofBayh’sveteranstaff-wellseasoned

andtemperedinthecurrentpoliticalclimate-arecertaintorisetokeyrolesinwhatevercampaigntheyeventuallyjoin,whichmaybenefitBayhinthefutureaswell.Thesenatoralsomanagedtoattractanationalfanbaseofcitizenvolunteers,oftenknownas“BayhPartisans,”whoworkedonhisbehalfmostlyonline.Somehavealreadyswitchedallegiancetoanothercandidate,butmanyhaveindicatedtheywouldsupportanotherBayhrun,althoughwebsitestoutingthesenatorarerapidlydisappearingfromtheinternet. TherehasbeenmuchspeculationaboutthefutureofSen.Bayh,whoturns51nextTuesday. “Bydroppingfromtheracebeforeiteverreallybe-gan,Bayhlikelybolstershischancesatthevicepresidentialnominationdowntheline,”wroteChrisCillizzaintheWash-ingtonPost’spoliticalblog.“Ifhehadrunforpresidentandnotbeenabletoshowstronginanyofthefourearlystates,hewouldhavebeenforcedoutoftheracewithawhimper,notabang.Asitnowstands,BayhandformerVirginiaGov.MarkWarnerhavetobeconsideredthefront-

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HOWEY Political Report Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Wednesday, Dec. 20, 2006Page 8

runnersforthe‘08vicepresidentialnomination.” An “Evan Bayh For Vice President”pagehasalreadycroppeduponmyspace.com. TheIndianapolisStar’seditorialboardrecentlycriticizedthesenatorforfailingtoproducesubstantiallegislationintheRepublican-runCongress.Thenewspaperpublishedanarticlethatasked,“What’sleftforBayh?” “Bayhhastheopportunitytoemergeasastron-gerleaderintheSenate,”theeditoralreads.“Todoso,heneedstodevelopanexpertiseinafewkeyissue-muchlikehisRepublicancounterpart,RichardLugar.Diggingdeepintomatterssuchasterrorism,theeconomyorhealthcarewouldintimehelperasethelightweighttagthat,deservedornot,hasbeenhungonBayhinrecentyears.” Indiana’sjuniorsenatorsitsonsomeofthesen-ate’smostpowerfulcommittees,includingArmedServicesandIntelligence.IncomingSenateMajorityLeaderHarryReid(D-NV)hasappointedBayhtoEnergyaswell,where

hemayfindopportunityatlasttopushforthepassageofhislegislativeproposalthatwouldreduceU.S.oilconsump-tionbytheamountweimporttoday.Suchlegislativesuc-cesswouldlendsignificantsubstancetotheBayhresume. With dad home for the holidaystostay,thisChristmaswilllikelybequitespecialintheBayhhouse-hold.Inthecourseofhisextensivetravelsoverthepasttwoyears,Sen.Bayhhasoftenbroughtupthesubjectofhiswife,Susan,andhiseleven-year-oldtwinsons,BeauandNick.Infact,onhislasttriptoNewHampshire,onlydaysbeforehewithdrewfromtherace,thesenatorsaidhewantedtorunforpresident“becauseIcareaboutourcountryandit’sbecauseIcareaboutmychildrenandit’sbecauseIcareaboutallofyou.AndIwanttoseeeachandeveryAmerican,all300millionofus,havethehopeandopportunitynecessarytofulfillourdestinyandfulfillourdreams.”v

2008 Indiana Governor Governor 2008:Republican:Gov.MitchDaniels.Democrat:SenateMinorityLeaderRichardYoung.1996 Results: O’Bannon(D)1,075,342,Goldsmith(R)997,505,Dillon(L)35,261.2000 Results:O’Bannon(D)1,230,345,McIntosh(R)906,492,Horning(L)38,686.2004 Results: Daniels(R)1,302,912,Kernan(D)1,113,900,Gividen(L)31,644.2004 Forecast:The2008gubernatorialcyclebegins!SenateMinorityLeaderRichardYoung,aDemocratfromMilltown,becamethefirstcandidatetoannounceforthe2008governor'srace(Weidenbener,Louisville Cou-rier-Journal).Itwasadevelopment HPRfirstreportedinNovember."Peopledeservetohavethebestgovernmentthatelectedofficialscanprovide,andI'vealwayslikedachal-lenge,"hesaidinaninterviewyesterday."I'dliketotrytorisetothischallenge."Gov.MitchDanielshasnotsaidwhetherhewillseekasecondterm,butkeyalliesofthegovernoratthe7thannualL.KeithBu-lenSymposiumonAmericanPoliticstoldHPRtheyexpectthegovernortoseekasecondterm.AndwhileYoungisthefirstDemocrattoconfirmthathewillseekhisparty'snominationintheMay2008primary,heisunlikelytobethelast."Richardisawell-respectedpublicservantandhasdonealotofgoodthingsforthepeopleofIndiana,"saidMikeEdmondson,executivedirectoroftheIndianaDemo-craticParty."Havingsaidthat,wearecertainlyintheearlystages,andIwouldexpecttherewillbeothercandidatesaswell."Young,64,saidheplanstoestablishacampaigncommittee,perhapsthisweek,sohecanbeginraisingmoneyforwhatlikelywillbeanexpensivecampaign."I

havealotofrespectforGov.Daniels,andIdobelievegovernorsshouldbeinnovative,"hesaid."ButIbelieveit'stheresponsibilityofagovernortohavegood-qualitypeoplerunningagenciesasopposedtoprivatiz-ingthemandturningyourworkovertosomeoneelse."HPR Analysis:DoesSen.Younghaveachance?ThephotoopRepubli-canswillusewillbeSen.YoungshowingupatthenSenatePresidentBobGarton’sfirstFebruarypresseronlegislativehealthcareforlife.Thatisadevastatingissuethatwillcontinuetodemolishanysupportivecandidatewhotriestobreakawayfromhisorher’sinsulatedlegislativedistrict.Thisisnotcomingfromthepress:theRepublicanswillhaveafielddaywithit.ThebestwaywecanputitisthereactionfrommostDemocratswe’vetalkedwithisoneofeitheramusementorgroans-theclassic“wink-behind-your-back”thing.Younghasnotbeena“go-to”guyintheSenate,theweakestcaucusintheStatehouse.Thatsplitcaucushasnowtakenitsonetruestar-Sen.ViSimpson-andadmonishedherduringtheNovemberleadershipfightandisnowsendingforthSen.Youngwhoiswidelyseenasnotcredibleforthegubernatoriallevel.IndianaDemocratswilllooktoitsmayoralclassand,ifacandidatedoesn’tma-terializethere,thenpastofficeholders,suchasDavisandGregg,orthebusinessclass.Status:LEANSDANIELS.v

State Sens. Vi Simpson and Richard Young. Young has declared for gov-ernor; Simpson is leaning against a second run. (HPR Photo)

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Chris Cilizza, Washington Post - Hearusout.Bydroppingfromtheracebeforeiteverreallybegan,Bayhlikelybolstershischancesatthevicepresidentialnominationdowntheline.Ifhehadrunforpresidentandnotbeenabletoshowstronginanyofthefourearlystates,hewouldhavebeenforcedoutoftheracewithawhimper,notabang.Asitnowstands,BayhandformerVirginiaGov.MarkWarnerhavetobeconsideredthefront-runnersforthe‘08vicepresidentialnomination.Botharered-stategovernorswhomightbeabletodeliveraGOP-leaningstatetoDemocratsinthegeneralelection(asingleredstatepick-upforDemocratsin2000or2004wouldhaveswungtheelectiontheotherway).AndBayhhastheentire110thCongresstoprovehispolicymettletoprospectivepresidents.v

Greg Giroux, Congressio-nal Quarterly - WhenIndianaDemocraticSen.EvanBayhannouncedSaturdaythathewouldnotrunforpresidentin2008,hereiteratedaBiblicalmetaphorhehadoftenusedforwhathadturnedintoalongshotcan-didacy:Hecalledhimselfa“David”inaDemocraticpresi-dentialfieldthatincludes“Goliaths.”Inmakingthisabruptturnaround,lessthantwoweeksafterhefiledpaperswiththeFederalElectionCommissiontoestablishan“explor-atory”committeeforapossiblepresidentialcampaign,Bayh’sself-definitionasanunderdog“David”suggestshisonce-soaringpoliticalprospectshavesettledintoamuch-lowertrajectory.BayhhadbeenmentionedaspotentialpresidentialtimberyearsbeforeClinton,ObamaorEdwardsemergedaspoliticalcelebrities.Atelegeniccentrist,BayhwaselectedgovernorofthegenerallyRepublican-leaningstateofIndianain1988whenhewasjust32,andsoonthereafterasmentionedasapotentialfuturecandidatefortheWhiteHouse.Bayhwasoverwhelminglyre-electedin1992,deliveredthekeynoteaddressatthe1996Demo-craticconvention,andeasilywonbidsfortheU.S.Senatein1998and2004.YetwhenBayhfinallytestedtakingtheplungeintonationalpolitics,hefoundhimselfatadisad-vantagetoeachofthefront-runnersintheearlyDemo-craticpresidentialpolls.WhilethereactiontoBayh’s1996conventionkeynotecouldbestbedescribedaspolite,itpaledbycomparisonwithObama’sstar-makingturnasthe2004Democratickeynoter.AndalthoughtheticketEdwardssharedin2004withpresidentialnomineeJohnKerryfailedtounseatPresidentBushandVicePresidentDickCheney,hestillhasgoodwillamongmanyDemocratsandisdoingwellinearlypollinginIowa,siteofthefirst-in-the-nationpresidentialprecinctcaucusesinJanuary2008.“He’soneoftheearliestvictimsofthe‘invisibleprimary,’”saidRobertDion,apoliticalscientistattheUniversityofEvansvilleinBayh’shomestate.“It’satoughcalltotrytofigureoutwhathismotivesare.Hecouldhavehungaroundand

madearespectableshowingandthenbowedout.Or,whoknows,hecouldhavecaughtfiremidyearnextyear.”Bayh’sdecisiontodropoutalsoisnotableinthatitdeprivestheDemocraticfieldofacandidatewhoisclosertoitscentristfactionthanitsliberalwing.Bayhisarecentformerchair-manoftheDemocraticLeadershipCouncil(DLC),whichwasfoundedtwodecadesagoasacounterweighttotheliberalforcesthatweredominatingtheparty.v

Grace Householder, Kendallville News-Sun -DearMr.President,Asweapproachtheday

whentheangelsproclaimed“PeaceonEarth”Iurgeyoutoreadthiswithanopenmindandanopenheart.WehereinnortheastIndianashareyourbasicbeliefsaboutpromotingreligious,economicandpoliticalfreedom.However,ourvisionofdemocracymaynotworkwellinallcountries.Inaddition,democ-racywithoutasupportinginfrastructureleadstochaosandthatiswhatwehaveinIraq.Iamverydisturbedtohearthatyouwon’tan-nounceyourdecisionaboutournewcoursein

Iraquntilaftertheholidays.IfearthatisbecauseyouaregoingtoannounceadecisiontosendmoretroopstoIraq.WhenyoudecidedtoinvadeIraqwesupportedyou.Wedidnotliketheidea—whichdidnothavestrongsupportfromourallies—butwetrustedourgovernment.Yousaidwewerewinning.We“won”whenweeliminatedSaddamHusseinandhisabilitytoobtain/useweaponsofmassdestruction.ButnowourpresenceinIraqseemstobecreatingmoreterrorism.Weareinvolvedinacompli-catedcivilwar.Acountryisbeingtornapartandthousandsoflivesarebeinglost.WefailedtoconsiderthedifferentmindsetandthehistoricalandpoliticalcomplexityoftheIraqipeopleandtheirneighbors.OurlovedonesservinginIraqaredoingthebesttheycaninanimpossiblesitua-tion.Becauseweloveandsupportthem,Iamwritingthisletter.Itisnotfairtosendtroopsonafailedmission.TheJointChiefsofStaffdonotwantyoutosendmoretroopstoIraq.TheyrecommendstrengtheningtheIraqiarmyandputtingmoreemphasisonpoliticalreconciliationandjobsforIraqis.Youstillusetheword“win”inthesamesen-tenceas“Iraq.”A“win”inIraqisnotpossible—unlesswescaledownourmissiontosimplyprotectingtheoilfields.Pleaseremember,Mr.President,thePalestinians’plightistherootcauseofterrorism.PleaseusethemessageoftheChristmasseason—“PeaceonEarth”—toannounceanewpeaceinitiativeinvolvingaPalestiniansolution.PleaseusethebestdiplomaticleadersintheU.S.andaroundtheworldtogettheworldinvolvedinpeace—apeacethatwillbeginatthelocationwhere“PeaceonEarth”wasfirstproclaimed.v

HOWEY Political Report Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Wednesday, Dec. 20, 2006Page 10

Help formulate the2007 Influence List INDIANAPOLIS-Obviously,therewillbemajorchangesinthe2007HPR50MostInfluentialList. SenatePresidentProTemporeRobertGarton,U.S.Reps.MikeSodrel,JohnHostettlerandChrisChocolawerealldefeated.DepartingtheDanielsad-ministrationisChiefofStaffHarryGonso. The2006listreflectedthewavethatdevel-opedaroundtheIraqWarandcongressio-nalcorruption,aswellastheDanielsadmin-istration’sMajorMovesprogram. In2007,therewillbetheEvanBayhpresidentialcampaign,thebiennialbudgetintheIndianaGeneralAs-sembly,mayoralelections,andahugedecisionforIndianaDemocrats:whowillbechallengingGov.MitchDaniels? HPRhasbeencompilingthe50MostInfluen-tialListsince1999.Weaskourreaderstosuggestadditons(orsubtractions).Someofyoucompileyourown50list.HPRencouragesthisexerciseinpower,cloutandaccountability.SendthoughtstoHPRPub-lisherBrianA.Howeyat:brianhowey@howeypoli-tics.com.The2007listwillbepublishedintheJan.11editionofTheHoweyPoliticalReportaswellasBrianHowey’sstatewidenewspapercolumnrunningin24papersandreachingmorethan200,000readerseachweek.

2006 HPR 50 Most Influential1. Gov. Mitch Daniels2. U.S. Sen. Richard Lugar3. U.S. Sen. Evan Bayh4. Commerce Secretary/IEDC Chairman Mickey Mauer

5. House Speaker Brian Bosma6. Marion County Prosecutor Carl Brizzi7. Indianapolis Mayor Bart Peterson8. U.S. Rep. Pete Visclosky9. U.S. Rep. Mike Pence10. U.S. Rep. Mike Sodrel11. U.S. Rep. John Hostettler12. State Rep. Rep. B. Patrick Bauer13. Senate President Pro Tempore Robert D. Garton14. Ways & Means Chairman Jeff Espich15. FSSA Director Mitch Roob16. Lt. Gov. Becky Skillman17. Marion County Sheriff Frank Anderson18. U.S. Rep. Chris Chocola19. State Sen. Luke Kenley20. John R. Hammond III21. Bob Grand22. State Rep. Randy Borror23. Secretary of State Todd Rokita24. Lee Hamilton25. Fort Wayne Mayor Graham Richard26. Alan B. Hubbard27. Marty Morris28. Tom Sugar29. U.S. Rep. Steve Buyer30. GOP Executive Director Jennifer Hallowell31. Indiana Democratic Chairman Dan Parker32. Indiana Republican Chairman Jim Kittle Jr.33. State Sen. Vi Simpson34. Farm Bureau President Don Villwock35. Chamber President Kevin Brinegar36. IMA President Pat Kiely37. UAW President Terry Thurman38. Mike O’Connor39. Mike Gentry40. Hamilton County Republican Chairman Charlie White41. U.S. Rep. Mark Souder42. U.S. Rep. Julia Carson43. Baron Hill44. Vanderburgh County Sheriff Brad Ellsworth45. OMB Director Chuck Schalliol46. Stadium Authority Chairman David Frick47. State Sen. Mike Young and State Rep. Phil Hinkle48. Tim Roemer49. Dan Coats50. IACT Executive Director Matt Greller v

Speaker Bauer and St. Joseph County Democratic Chairman Butch Morgan. (South Bend Tribune Photo)

HOWEY Political Report Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Wednesday, Dec. 20, 2006Page 11

$120,000,anearly15percentin-crease.

Mayor Rea seeks 2nd term MISHAWAKA-Itwasnosur-prisewhenMayorJeffReaannouncedTuesdaythathewouldseekasecondterminoffice(South Bend Tribune).“Thisjobmeansalottome,”anemo-tionalReatoldsupportersgatheredinMishawakaRepublicanHeadquarters.

Commissioner will trypolitical comeback MUNCIE-RepublicanDela-wareCountyCommissionerLarryCrouchlookedbackonhisaccomplish-mentsandindicatedhewouldrunforpublicofficeinthefutureduringafarewellspeechathislastmeetingMonday(Muncie Star Press).Theboardofcommissioners,controlofwhichwillswitchfrom2-1Republicanto2-1DemocraticasaresultoftheNov.7election,willreorganizeonJan.1,DemocraticCommissionerJohnBrookeannounced.“I’vebeenaskedtorunfortreasurer,”Crouchsaid.“I’vebeenaskedtorunforsurveyor.York-townhasaskedmetocomebackoverthere.SoIwillstaybusy.”

LaPorte Council rejectsillegal alien roundups LaPORTE-PoliceinLaPortewillnotgoafterillegalimmigrants,buttheofficialwhoproposedrootingthemoutlocallyplanstokeeptheissueinthespotlight(Post-Tribune).TheLaPorteCityCouncil,onMonday,votedunanimouslyagainstanordinancethatwouldhaveauthorizedlocalpolicetofindillegalimmigrantsanddetainthemforpossibledeportationbythefederalgovernment.Beforethedeci-sion,MarioRosa,formerdirectoroftheElPuenteCenterinLaPorte,wasamongalonglineofresidentswhoopposedthemeasure.“Perhaps,La-Porteshouldbeknownasthecitywithmapletreeswithabigotbehindeveryoneofthem,”saidRosa,whosewordsplayeduponLaPorte’snicknameThe

MapleCity.“Thatbreaksmyheart.Therearegoodpeoplehere.Youhaveasmallminoritythatisspeakingonbehalfofthesilentmajority,”Rosasaid.

‘Big Bopper’ a cover boy TERREHAUTE-It’sanick-namenotheardsincehisfraternitydaysinKappaSigmawhileattendingIndianaUniversity,andneedlesstosay,itbroughtachuckletoJamesBoppJr.whenhesawthecoveroftheNovemberissueoftheABAJournal(Terre Haute Tribun-Star).Thecoverreads:“TheBIGBOPPER,Ex-plodingthecanonsofjudicialethics.”“Ididn’tthinktherewasanybodystillalivethatstillrememberedthatnick-name,”BoppsaidMondayinatele-phoneinterview.“IwastrulyhonoredthattheworkthatIhavedone,andotherpeopleinmylawfirmhavedonewithme,wouldbeprofiledandbethefeaturedcoverarticle.Itwasveryhumbling.”Bopp,58,waspreparingtomeetwithMassachusettsGov.MittRomneyabouttheRepublicangover-nor’spotentialpresidentialbid.v

Daniels to award slainsoldier Silver Star today INDIANAPOLIS-AnIndianaNationalGuardsmanwhodiedinasuicideattackjustweeksbeforehewastoreturnhomefromIraqwillbeawardedtheSilverStar.Gov.MitchDanielsandMaj.Gen.R.MartinUm-bargerwillpresentthemedaltothefamilyofSgt.JosephE.Proctortoday.

Tie in Grant Council race MARION-ThewinneroftheGrantCountyCouncilDistrict2seatremainsunknownafterarecountTuesdayshowedatievotebetweenbothcandidates.Republicanincum-bentMyronBranklepickeduptwovotes,andDemocraticchallengerDanBrockpickedupthreevotes,bringingbothoftheirtalliesto2,154votes.v

Feds approve FSSAout-sourced contracts INDIANAPOLIS-Thefederalgovernmentgaveitsapprovalyes-terdaytoGov.MitchDaniels’plantooutsourcethehandlingofapplicationsforfoodstampsandotherbenefits(Associated Press).Suchappli-cationsarenowhandledbythestateFamilyandSocialServicesAdministra-tion.UnderthecontractproposedbytheDanielsadministration,ateamofvendorsledbyIBMCorp.wouldhelpprocessapplicationsforfoodstamps,Medicaidandwelfareandlendtechni-calsupporttotheagencyinreturnfor$1.16billionover10years.Daniels’spokeswoman,JaneJankowski,saidthedealwasapprovedbythefederalagenciesthatrunthebenefitpro-grams,includingtheDepartmentofHealthandHumanServicesandtheDepartmentofAgriculture,whichad-ministersfoodstamps.HouseSpeakerBauersaidyesterdaythatthestate’sportionwouldbesignificantandneedtobeappropriatedbytheGeneralAs-sembly.DemocratscontroltheHouse51-49andRepublicansruletheSenate33-17.“Wehaveatwo-yearbudget,nota10-yearbudget,”Bauersaid.“Ibelievethattakingcareofpeopleonwelfareshouldnotbeafor-profitenterprise.Nobodyshouldbeforsale.”

Council balks at MayorRichard’s pay raise FORTWAYNE-TheFortWayneCityCouncilbalkedatMayorGrahamRichard’srequestfora30 percentpayhikebutagreedthecityexecutive’ssalaryshouldbebumped(Fort Wayne Journal Gazette).Afteralengthydiscussion,thecouncilvoted6-3Tuesdaytoraisethemayor’ssalaryfrom$104,504to