the euro- and city-delta model intercomparison exercises p. thunis, k. cuvelier joint research...

The Euro- and City-Delta model intercomparison exercises

P. Thunis, K. Cuvelier

Joint Research Centre, Ispra

EuroDeltaA project to evaluate uncertainty in modelling source-

receptor relationships used in air quality policy

Organised by:

JRC-IES, IIASA, EMEP, TNO-MEP, CONCAWE, INERIS, SMHI, FUB

Objectives:

• Do regional air quality models produce a consistent response to emission changes ?

• What is the range of modelled responses to emission changes ?

• What are confidence limits for the modelling used in policy ?

CityDeltaA project to include sub-grid effects into a Europe-

wide health impact assessment for PM and O3

Organised by:

JRC-IES, IIASA, EMEP, TNO-MEP, CONCAWE

Objectives: Identify systematic differences (deltas) between rural and urban background AQ (scale)

• How these delta vary in terms of urban emissions?• How these delta vary accross cities?• How these delta vary accross models?• How these delta vary accross pollutants ?

City-Delta CitiesCity-Delta Cities:: Comparisons are conducted for a number of European cities with distinct differences in climatic conditions, geographical settings, and emission densities.

London

Paris

Prague

Berlin

Copenhagen

Katowice

Milan

Marseille

Participating Models

EURODELTA

CHIMERE

REM

EMEP

MATCH

LOTOS

TM5

CITYDELTA

CALGRID MUSE

CAMX TRANSCHIM

MUSCAT EUROS

OFIS MOCAGE

STEM REM

LOTOS CHIMERE

EPISODE EMEP

Emission Scenarios

EURODELTA

• European Wide reductions (from 2000 to 2020 with 2 sets of meteorology)

• Beyond 2020 specific NOx, Sox, NH3 and VOC reductions for Italy, Germany, France and Sea-areas

• In total 28 emission scenarios

• Current phase: 55 additional scenarios (5 groups)

CITYDELTA

8 emission scenarios for each city

• 1999 Base Case• 2010 Current Legislation• NOx, VOC, PM25, PMc

Maximum Feasible reductions

• Current Phase: 7 cities for 4 scenarios (3-4 modelling groups)

• Input data: EMEP emissions, Met year 1999• Area Covered: Europe (resolution 50 km)• Output: Surface fields (hourly, daily and monthly) organised in monthly files and reported on individual model grid. Interpolation to Lat-lon and EMEP

ED: Input / Output

Data Management

The Euro- & City-delta tool

Original Participant data (~Tb)

Pre-processing (JRC)

Processed data (20 Gb) and graphical tool

available on Web

Visualisation of raw monitoring data

• Various statistics: observation availability, mean, max, stddev,…• Only for ground stations up to now.

Comparison of measurements/model results

• Numerous statistics available including Taylor, AOT, SOMO, scatter-plots…• Comparison of different model versions, ENSEMBLE approach• restricted to ground stations

Visualisation of input emission data

• Sector, pollutant, country/region-wise visualisation• No time or species disaggregation.

2-D visualisation

• Selected statistics available for 2-D monthly surface maps• Comparison of different model versions, ENSEMBLE approach but pre-calculated

Mean Ozone

Max ensemble min

Countries

OBSERVATIONSMODEL 1 MODEL 2 MODEL 3, …

4-D Fields: Meteo, Chemistry, Aerosols

Pre-processing (Window Interface)ASCII-BIN CDF

MONIT

Observations Overview

SHOWALL

4D model data analysis

XZ, YZ, SZ, XY Sections

Comparison with obs.

VALID

Statistical Module Multi-models

(obs .vs. models)

EMIS

Emissions QAQCRatio checks

EMISSIONS

Conclusions

- Surface field- Control of ext parameters (biogenics, BC, …) - 2-D functions only for pre-defined variables

+ Common interactive graphical tool + Common input (emission, meteo) as far as possible)

? Data transfert? Data interpolation? Grid structure (e.g. emission release height)