the evolution of qual research - kellogg

Ramada Hotel Singapore October 1 & 2, 2014

#QUAL360

Organized by

#QUAL360 Ramada Hotel Singapore Oct 1 & 2, 2014

Platinum Sponsor Silver Sponsors

Association & Education Partners

Media Partners

The evolution of Qual research

And a few things to consider on how to cope

….

Tyrone Almeida, Director, Marketing & Insights, Kellogg Apac

How has the world Changed ?

• Technological – Mobile, Connectivity, info access..

• Social – Zero Privacy – Interactive – Experiential – Always on - Connected .. – Data overload

• Economic – more evolved needs, – more fragmentation

– more discretionary items…

New Behaviors driven by …

New knowledge..

• Better appreciation of Cognitive biases, irrationality…deep sub-conscious…

– Behavioral economics, Neurosciences

• Behavior = f (context, stimuli, subject..)

– Environments more complex now…..more behavioral change due to context changes

– Chaos theory role of randomness….

New or more evolved

Needs & Behaviours + New understanding

New or more evolved ways of

Collecting, Analysing & Interpreting data

• Who is the Source of information • Provide the insights • Target of the analysis and research investigation

• What are the specific information needs • Areas to focus / probe on

How will you execute: Methods & Tools

In Qualitative research

WHO

Classical WHO : Representative (Rep) consumers/shoppers

• The average (rep) consumer is NOT very : – Involved ( in your category)

– Sensitive to marginal changes in the proposition ( with only few exposures to the stimuli)

– Aware of their buying behavior/habits ( more sub-conscious )

– Articulate enough to explain

• No panel is truly rep – skews exist – Sometimes better to intentionally bias

– Easier to read and adjust for bias

WHO

“All happy families are alike;

each unhappy family is unhappy in its own way.”

― Leo Tolstoy, Anna Karenina

• Two ends of the spectrum on a few key variables

• Category usage, Influencing, Adoption….amongst others

• Higher degree of sensitivity to different stimuli

– E.g. Heavy users of the category – tend to be more sensitive to minute changes in the pdt or price. Light users tend to be very sensitive to level of engagement required with the category.

• Not about trying to shift one end group to another – it’s about better understanding the in-betweens – the ‘rep’

• Consumers and their states are not static, they cycle through different stages , even through a bell curve. Bell curves for different categories are inter-connected ..often via tail-end consumers…

• Level of diversity in tail-end consumers. Richer insights per person vs rep

Heavy Light

Consumption

Vocal/Influencer Quiet

Influencing

Early Adopters Laggards

Adoption

Tail end consumers

WHO

The ‘experts’ & ‘catalysts’.. The Experts To Learn about Talk to : • Shoppers Retailers… • Food Chefs, food bloggers, retailers • Cosmetics Make up artists, models, glam writers • Comm. reactions neuroscientists, ethnographers.. Sometimes a few consumer experts give you more than speaking to hordes of consumers

The Catalysts Those who help get the best out of your interactions with consumers • To better interpret consumer articulations

– Semiotic specialists, anthropologists, linguistic experts

• To better interpret consumer behavior – Behavioral psychologists, neuroscientists, client side experts

WHAT

Behavior = f (context, stimuli, subject..)

• Shopping environment, cultural and social norms, information processing…

– Case study: A tale of 2 sachets

• More effort to understand the context and how that drives behavior

• E.g. Demand spaces

– what, where , when , with whom, why

WHAT

W.r.t. purchase behavior, Consumers not highly self aware / unable to articulate

• Shift from direct probing to Observe & Infer model – the emergence of mini-experiments /hypothesize & test approach – E.g. Case of Price Vs Brand Vs Benefit

• Unstructured conversations – the consumer leads , you listen

HOW

• Technology – Video streaming, Online panels, Social media, …

– More spontaneity , large samples, extended durations, anytime follow on probes… • Problem of data management, analysis

– Better context probing with mobile… • Pampers, Food testing…

• Experiments – linked to the Observe & Infer approach

– Games, Exercises, Tests…

HOW the Convergence of Domains

Qual – Quant

• Layering

• Hybrid techniques

• Pull all existing knowledge on a topic together into a map

• A review of this knowledge map is the starting point for designing each subsequent research

• Each new piece of research will then add to the knowledge map as it will either : reinforce the story, create contradictions or open new dimensions

• New work creates new pieces of the knowledge map or sharpens existing

pieces i.e. builds and creates new knowledge layers around a topic

• Great tool for managing information, helps focus future research

Layering

Layering and extending Qual to Quant

• A novel application of Bayes’ Theorem

– expresses how a subjective degree of belief should rationally change to account for new evidence

– How the degree of belief in a hypothesis based on 1 piece of research should change based on prior research

E.g.: Packaging research on pink vs blue packs • A few FGDs suggest most prefer pink because it’s

feminine. • Prior research suggests that feminine traits are a key

driver of product choice + Your own knowledge suggest that in general most consumers would consider pink more feminine.

• You infer that the in population the pink package would be more preferred.

Qual–Quant Hybrids

• Combining qual probing and depth for certain areas with the scale and structure of a quant research.

• Equity measurement – Relevance Tags® www.relevance.pro

“A lot goes on in our minds that we're not aware of. Most of what influences what we say and do occurs below the level of awareness”

- Gerald Zaltman

Professor, Harvard Business School & creator of the Z-met probing technique

“we are far less rational in our decision making than we think.... (however) our irrational behaviors are neither random nor senseless- they are systematic and predictable”

- Dan Ariely Author of

Predictably Irrational:

The Hidden Forces That Shape Our Decisions

HOW the Convergence of Domains

• Neuro-testing – with FGD debriefs – With Z-met – Better understand the role of

emotions

• Behavioral Economics – Bandwagon, Anchoring, Mental

accounting, Zero cost, Compromise effect

• :::::

Summary

Experiments Tech driven

Unstructured Obs vs Claimed Context

Catalysts Tail -End Experts

Quant from Qual

Layering

Convergence

Quant with Qual

Dealing with the changes.. 1. Innovation in research: Play your part.

Engage , Push and Challenge your vendor partners

2. The old and new often don’t talk to each other. Push our vendors to integrate emerging techniques with the good aspects of the old..

3. Act like a venture capitalist. Break-throughs come with failure. …Keep 10-20% of your budget for piloting & refining new stuff.

#QUAL360 Ramada Hotel Singapore Oct 1 & 2, 2014

Platinum Sponsor Silver Sponsors

Association & Education Partners

Media Partners

Ramada Hotel Singapore October 1 & 2, 2014

#QUAL360

Organized by