the fate of the semantic web - elon university · 2010. 6. 10. · semantic web technology ... a...

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TheFateoftheSemanticWebTechnologyexpertsandstakeholderswhoparticipatedinarecentsurveybelieveonlineinformationwillcontinuetobeorganizedandmadeaccessibleinsmarterandmoreusefulwaysincomingyears,butthereisstarkdisputeaboutwhethertheimprovementswillmatchthevisionaryidealsofthosewhoareworkingtobuildthesemanticweb.

JannaQuitneyAnderson,ElonUniversityLeeRainie,PewResearchCenter’sInternet&AmericanLifeProjectMay4,2010

PewResearchCenter’sInternet&AmericanLifeProjectAninitiativeofthePewResearchCenter1615LSt.,NW–Suite700Washington,D.C.20036202‐419‐4500|pewInternet.org

ThispublicationispartofaPewResearchCenterseriesthatcapturespeople’sexpectationsforthefutureoftheInternet,intheprocesspresentingasnapshotofcurrentattitudes.Findoutmoreat:http://www.pewInternet.org/topics/Future‐of‐the‐Internet.aspxandhttp://www.imaginingtheinternet.org.

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OverviewSirTimBerners‐Lee,theinventoroftheWorldWideWeb,hasworkedalongwithmanyothersintheInternetcommunityformorethanadecadetoachievehisnextbigdream:thesemanticweb.Hisvisionisawebthatallowssoftwareagentstocarryoutsophisticatedtasksforusers,makingmeaningfulconnectionsbetweenbitsofinformationso“computerscanperformmoreofthetediousworkinvolvedinfinding,combining,andactinguponinformationontheweb.”1Theconceptofthesemanticwebhasbeenfluidandevolvingandneverquitefoundaconcreteexpressionandeasily‐understoodapplicationthatcouldbegraspedreadilybyordinaryInternetusers.Nevertheless,ithasinspiredmanytechnologistsandInternetexpertstoimprovetheperformanceofthewebanditisatopicofgreatinterestinthehigh‐techworld.Some895expertsrespondedtotheinvitationofthePewResearchCenter’sInternet&AmericanLifeProjectandElonUniversity’sImaginingtheInternetCentertopredictthelikelyprogresstowardachievingthegoalsofthesemanticwebbytheyear2020.AskedtothinkaboutthelikelihoodthatBerners‐Leeandhisallieswillrealizetheirvision,oftencalledWeb3.0,thesetechnologyexpertsandstakeholdersweredividedandoftencontentious.Some47%agreedwiththestatement:

“By2020,thesemanticwebenvisionedbyTimBerners‐Leewillnotbeasfullyeffectiveasitscreatorshopedandaverageuserswillnothavenoticedmuchofadifference.”

Some41%agreedwiththeoppositestatement,whichposited:

“By2020,thesemanticwebenvisionedbyTimBerners‐LeeandhisallieswillhavebeenachievedtoasignificantdegreeandhaveclearlymadeadifferencetoaverageInternetusers.”

Expertsgenerallyagreedthatprogresswillcontinuetobemadeinmakingthewebmoreusefulandinformationretrievalandassessmentmoremeaningful.Theyrecognizedthefactthattherearealreadyelementsandprogramsofthesemanticwebinplacethatarehelpingpeoplemoreeasilynavigatetheirlives.Whilemanysurveyparticipantsnotedthatcurrentandemergingtechnologiesarebeingleveragedtowardpositivewebevolutioninregardtolinkingdata,therewasnoconsensusonthetechnicalmechanismsandhumanactionsthatmightleadtothenextwaveofimprovements–norhowextensivethechangesmightbe.ManythinkBerners‐Lee’svisionwilltakemuchlongertounfoldthanthe2020timelinepositedbythequestion.Criticsnotedthathumanusesoflanguageareoftenillogical,playfullymisleading,falseornefarious,thushumansemanticscanneverbemadecomprehensibletomachines.Some12%ofthosewhorespondedtothesurveydidnotventureaguessaboutthefutureofthesemanticweb–itselfasignthatthereisstillagooddealofuncertaintyandconfusionaboutthetopicevenamongthosewhoarequiteconnectedtothetechworld.

1 See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semantic_Web

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SurveyMethod:‘Tensionpairs’weredesignedtoprovokedetailedelaborationsThismaterialwasgatheredinthefourth“FutureoftheInternet”surveyconductedbythePewResearchCenter’sInternet&AmericanLifeProjectandElonUniversity’sImaginingtheInternetCenter.ThesurveysareconductedthroughonlinequestionnairestowhichaselectedgroupofexpertsandthehighlyengagedInternetpublichavebeeninvitedtorespond.Thesurveyspresentpotential‐futurescenariostowhichrespondentsreactwiththeirexpectationsbasedoncurrentknowledgeandattitudes.Youcanviewdetailedresultsfromthe2004,2006,2008and2010surveyshere:http://www.pewInternet.org/topics/Future‐of‐the‐Internet.aspx andhttp://www.elon.edu/e‐web/predictions/expertsurveys/default.xhtml.Expandedresultsarepublishedinthe“FutureoftheInternet”seriespublishedbyCambriaPress.RespondentstotheFutureoftheInternetIVsurvey,fieldedfromDec.2,2009toJan.11,2010,wereaskedtoconsiderthefutureoftheInternet‐connectedworldbetweennowand2020andthelikelyinnovationthatwilloccur.Theywereaskedtoassess10different“tensionpairs”–eachpairofferingtwodifferent2020scenarioswiththesameoverallthemeandoppositeoutcomes–andtheywereaskedtoselecttheonemostlikelychoiceoftwostatements.ThetensionpairsandtheiralternativeoutcomeswereconstructedtoreflectpreviousstatementsaboutthelikelyevolutionoftheInternet.TheywerereviewedandeditedbythePewInternetAdvisoryBoard.Resultsarebeingreleasedinfourvenuesoverthecourseof2010.TheresultsthatarereportedhereareresponsestoatensionpairthatrelatestothefutureimpactoftheInternetoninstitutionsandorganizations.Resultstofiveothertensionpairs–relatingtotheInternetandtheevolutionofintelligence;readingandtherenderingofknowledge;identityandauthentication;gadgetsandapplications;andthecorevaluesoftheInternet–werereleasedearlierin2010atthemeetingoftheAmericanAssociationfortheAdvancementofScience.Theycanbereadat:http://www.pewInternet.org/Reports/2010/Future‐of‐the‐Internet‐IV.aspx.AdditionalresultsfromthetensionpairinvolvingtheimpactoftheInternetoninstitutionswerediscussedattheCapitalCabalinWashington,DC,onMarch31,2010andcanbereadat:http://pewInternet.org/Reports/2010/Impact‐of‐the‐Internet‐on‐Institutions‐in‐the‐Future.aspx.Stillotherresultswillbereleasedatthe2010WorldFutureSocietyconference(http://www.wfs.org/meetings.htm).PleasenotethatthissurveyisprimarilyaimedatelicitingfocusedobservationsonthelikelyimpactandinfluenceoftheInternet–notontherespondents’choicesfromthepairsofpredictivestatements.Manytimeswhenrespondents“voted”foronescenariooveranother,theyrespondedintheirelaborationthatbothoutcomesarelikelytoadegreeorthatanoutcomenotofferedwouldbetheirtruechoice.Surveyparticipantswereinformedthat“itis

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likelyyouwillstrugglewithmostorallofthechoicesandsomemaybeimpossibletodecide;wehopethatwillinspireyoutowriteresponsesthatwillexplainyouranswerandilluminateimportantissues.”

Expertswerelocatedintwoways.First,severalthousandwereidentifiedinanextensivecanvassingof scholarly, government, and business documents from the period 1990‐1995 to seewho hadventuredpredictionsaboutthefutureimpactoftheInternet.Severalhundredofthemparticipatedin the first three surveys conducted by Pew Internet and Elon University, and they wererecontactedforthissurvey.Second,expertparticipantswerehand‐pickedduetotheirpositionsasstakeholdersinthedevelopmentoftheInternet.

Herearesomeoftherespondents:ClayShirky,EstherDyson,DocSearls,NicholasCarr,SusanCrawford,DavidClark,JamaisCascio,PeterNorvig,CraigNewmark,HalVarian,HowardRheingold,AndreasKluth,JeffJarvis,AndyOram,KevinWerbach,DavidSifry,DanGillmor,MarcRotenberg,StoweBoyd,AndrewNachison,AnthonyTownsend,EthanZuckerman,TomWolzien,StephenDownes,RebeccaMacKinnon,JimWarren,SandraBraman,BarryWellman,SethFinkelstein,JerryBerman,TiffanyShlain,andStewartBaker.

Therespondents’remarksreflecttheirpersonalpositionsontheissuesandarenotthepositionsoftheiremployers,howevertheirleadershiprolesinkeyorganizationshelpidentifythemasexperts.Followingisarepresentativelistofsomeoftheinstitutionsatwhichrespondentsworkorhaveaffiliations:Google,Microsoft.CiscoSystems,Yahoo!,Intel,IBM,Hewlett‐Packard,EricssonResearch,Nokia,NewYorkTimes,O’ReillyMedia,ThomsonReuters,Wiredmagazine,TheEconomistmagazine,NBC,RANDCorporation,VerizonCommunications,LindenLab,InstitutefortheFuture,BritishTelecom,QwestCommunications,Raytheon,Adobe,Meetup,Craigslist,Ask.com,Intuit,MITRECorporation

DepartmentofDefense,DepartmentofState,FederalCommunicationsCommission,DepartmentofHealthandHumanServices,CentersforDiseaseControlandPrevention,SocialSecurityAdministration,GeneralServicesAdministration,BritishOfCom,WorldWideWebConsortium,NationalGeographicSociety,BentonFoundation,LinuxFoundation,AssociationofInternetResearchers,Internet2,InternetSociety,InstitutefortheFuture,SantaFeInstitute,YankeeGroup

HarvardUniversity,MIT,YaleUniversity,GeorgetownUniversity,OxfordInternetInstitute,PrincetonUniversity,Carnegie‐MellonUniversity,UniversityofPennsylvania,UniversityofCalifornia‐Berkeley,ColumbiaUniversity,UniversityofSouthernCalifornia,CornellUniversity,UniversityofNorthCarolina,PurdueUniversity,DukeUniversity,SyracuseUniversity,NewYorkUniversity,NorthwesternUniversity,OhioUniversity,GeorgiaInstituteofTechnology,FloridaStateUniversity,UniversityofKentucky,UniversityofTexas,UniversityofMaryland,UniversityofKansas,UniversityofIllinois,BostonCollege,UniversityofTulsa,UniversityofMinnesota,ArizonaState,MichiganStateUniversity,UniversityofCalifornia‐Irvine,GeorgeMasonUniversity,UniversityofUtah,BallStateUniversity,BaylorUniversity,UniversityofMassachusetts‐Amherst,UniversityofGeorgia,WilliamsCollege,andUniversityofFlorida.

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While many respondents are at the pinnacle of Internet leadership, some of the surveyrespondentsare“working inthetrenches”ofbuildingtheweb.Mostof thepeople inthis lattersegmentofresponderscametothesurveybyinvitationbecausetheyareontheemaillistofthePew Internet & American Life Project or are otherwise known to the Project. They are notnecessarilyopinionleadersfortheirindustriesorwell‐knownfuturists,butitisstrikinghowmuchtheir viewsweredistributed inways thatparalleled thosewhoarecelebrated in the technologyfield.

Whileawiderangeofopinionfromexperts,organizations,andinterestedinstitutionswassought,thissurveyshouldnotbetakenasarepresentativecanvassingofInternetexperts.Bydesign,thissurveywasan“optin,”self‐selectingeffort.Thatprocessdoesnotyieldarandom,representativesample.Thequantitativeresultsarebasedonanon‐randomonlinesampleof895Internetexpertsandother Internet users, recruitedby email invitation, Twitter, or Facebook. Since thedata arebased on a non‐random sample, a margin of error cannot be computed, and results are notprojectabletoanypopulationotherthantherespondentsinthissample.

ManyoftherespondentsareInternetveterans–50%havebeenusingtheInternetsince1992orearlier,with11%activelyinvolvedonlinesince1982orearlier.WhenaskedfortheirprimaryareaofInternetinterest,15%ofthesurveyparticipantsidentifiedthemselvesasresearchscientists;14%asbusinessleadersorentrepreneurs;12%asconsultantsorfuturists,12%asauthors,editorsorjournalists;9%astechnologydevelopersoradministrators;7%asadvocatesoractivistusers;3%aspioneersororiginators;2%aslegislators,politiciansorlawyers;and25%specifiedtheirprimaryareaofinterestas“other.”Theanswerstheserespondentsgavetothequestionsaregivenintwocolumns.Thefirstcolumncoverstheanswersof371longtimeexpertswhohaveregularlyparticipatedinthesesurveys.Thesecondcolumncoverstheanswersofalltherespondents,includingthe524whowererecruitedbyotherexpertsorbytheirassociationwiththePewInternetProject.Interestingly,thereisnotgreatvariancebetweenthesmallerandbiggerpoolsofrespondents.

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MainFindings:Prospectsforthesemanticweb

CURRENT EXPERTS

N=371

CURRENT TOTAL

N=895

% 38 41 By 2020, the semantic web envisioned by Tim Berners-Lee and his allies will have been achieved to a significant degree and have clearly made a difference to the average Internet users.

52 47 By 2020, the semantic web envisioned by Tim Berners-Lee will not be as fully effective as its creators hoped and average users will not have noticed much of a difference.

10 12 Did not respond

BackgroundSirTimBerners‐Lee,theinventoroftheWorldWideWeb,hasanevengrandervisionforwhatthewebcanbe.HeandhisallieshavebeenworkingthroughtheWorldWideWebConsortiumonanevolvinginitiativetheycallthesemanticweb.Berners‐Leeandco‐authorswroteinScientificAmericanin2001thattheyseeafuturewhenmachinescanunderstanddataandmakemeaningfulconnectionsbetweenrelateditems,allintheserviceofhelpingpeoplegetthematerialtheywantandcompletethetasksthatmattertothem:

ThesemanticwebwillbringstructuretothemeaningfulcontentofWebpages,creatinganenvironmentwheresoftwareagentsroamingfrompagetopagecanreadilycarryoutsophisticatedtasksforusers…ThesemanticwebisnotaseparateWebbutanextensionofthecurrentone,inwhichinformationisgivenwell‐definedmeaning,betterenablingcomputersandpeopletoworkincooperation…Todate,theWebhasdevelopedmostrapidlyasamediumofdocumentsforpeopleratherthanfordataandinformationthatcanbeprocessedautomatically.Thesemanticwebaimstomakeupforthis…TherealpowerofthesemanticwebwillberealizedwhenpeoplecreatemanyprogramsthatcollectWebcontentfromdiversesources,processtheinformationandexchangetheresultswithotherprograms.

Inthearticle,Berners‐Leeandco‐authorsJamesHandlerandOraLassilasketchedoutascenarioofhowthesemanticwebwouldworkandhighlightedthekeywordswhichindicatetermswhosesemantics,ormeaning,weredefinedforthecomputer“agent”throughtheSemanticWeb:

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TheentertainmentsystemwasbeltingouttheBeatles’“WeCanWorkItOut”whenthephonerang.WhenPeteanswered,hisphoneturnedthesounddownbysendingamessagetoalltheotherlocaldevicesthathadavolumecontrol.Hissister,Lucy,wasonthelinefromthedoctor’soffice:“Momneedstoseeaspecialistandthenhastohaveaseriesofphysicaltherapysessions.Biweeklyorsomething.I’mgoingtohavemyagentsetuptheappointments.”Peteimmediatelyagreedtosharethechauffeuring.Atthedoctor’soffice,LucyinstructedherSemanticWebagentthroughherhandheldWebbrowser.TheagentpromptlyretrievedinformationaboutMom’sprescribedtreatmentfromthedoctor’sagent,lookedupseverallistsofproviders,andcheckedfortheonesin‐plan[eligibleforinsurancecoverage]forMom’sinsurancewithina20‐mileradiusofherhomeandwitharatingofexcellentorverygoodontrustedratingservices.Itthenbegantryingtofindamatchbetweenavailableappointmenttimes(suppliedbytheagentsofindividualprovidersthroughtheirWebsites)andPete’sandLucy’sbusyschedules.Inafewminutestheagentpresentedthemwithaplan.Petedidn’tlikeit—UniversityHospitalwasallthewayacrosstownfromMom’splace,andhe’dbedrivingbackinthemiddleofrushhour.Hesethisownagenttoredothesearchwithstricterpreferencesaboutlocationandtime.Lucy’sagent,havingcompletetrustinPete’sagentinthecontextofthepresenttask,automaticallyassistedbysupplyingaccesscertificatesandshortcutstothedataithadalreadysortedthrough.Almostinstantlythenewplanwaspresented:amuchcloserclinicandearliertimes—butthereweretwowarningnotes.First,Petewouldhavetorescheduleacoupleofhislessimportantappointments.Hecheckedwhattheywere—notaproblem.Theotherwassomethingabouttheinsurancecompany’slistfailingtoincludethisproviderunderphysicaltherapists:“Servicetypeandinsuranceplanstatussecurelyverifiedbyothermeans,”theagentreassuredhim.“(Details?)”LucyregisteredherassentataboutthesamemomentPetewasmuttering,“Sparemethedetails,”anditwasallset.(Ofcourse,Petecouldn’tresistthedetailsandlaterthatnighthadhisagentexplainhowithadfoundthatprovidereventhoughitwasn’tontheproperlist.)

TheWikipediaentryonthesemanticwebelaboratestheideathisway:“Thesemanticwebisavisionofinformationthatisunderstandablebycomputers,socomputerscanperformmoreofthetediousworkinvolvedinfinding,combining,andactinguponinformationontheweb.”2Inhis1999book“WeavingtheWeb,”Berners‐Leesaid:“IhaveadreamfortheWeb[inwhichcomputers]becomecapableofanalyzingallthedataontheWeb–thecontent,links,andtransactionsbetweenpeopleandcomputers.A‘semanticweb’,whichshouldmakethis

2 See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semantic_Web

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possible,hasyettoemerge,butwhenitdoes,theday‐to‐daymechanismsoftrade,bureaucracyandourdailyliveswillbehandledbymachinestalkingtomachines.The‘intelligentagents’peoplehavetoutedforageswillfinallymaterialize.”

PeoplecommonlyrefertothesemanticwebasthenextgenerationoftheWorldWideWeb–or,sometimes.Web3.0.ThehopeisthatitmightimprovedataaggregationtosuchanextentoverthenextdecadethatanInternetsearchthatnowyieldshundredsorthousandsormillionsofresponses(manynotassociatedwiththesearcher’sneeds)willgenerallydeliveronlythespecificinformationsheseeks.Theconceptissorevolutionarythatpeoplehavedifficultydescribingitinjustsomanywordsanditsproponentsself‐consciouslystruggletodescribethe“killerapp”forthesemanticwebthatwillmakeusersunderstanditspower–andsupportitscreation.Berners‐Leedescribesitas“gettingoneformatacrossapplications”sothesemanticwebstandardscanenablepeopletogainaccesstotheinformationtheywantanduseitanywaytheywant,forinstance,beingabletomeshdatafromapersonalbankstatementandapersonalcalendar.Hehassaidhewouldliketoseeafuturewebthatallowspeopletoconnecttheirideaswiththeideasofothers,buildingasystemforpeopletosharepartsofideasinawaythatcanmakethemwhole.Successforthesemanticwebwilldependuponpeopleworkingtogethertoacceptitsstandards(GRDDL,RDFa,OWL,SPARQL,andothers)anditsnamingandtaggingontologies.SitesalreadyimplementingsemanticwebelementsincludeDBpedia,Twine,Garlik,GeoNames,RealTravel,andMetaWeb.Thesemanticwebhassomevocalopponentsandcritics.Oneisblogger,author,andspeakerCoryDoctorowwhodescribedina2001essaytitled,“Metacrap:PuttingtheTorchtoSevenStraw‐MenoftheMeta‐topia”whatheconsideredtobethesevenobstaclestogettingreliabledata:Peoplearelazy;peoplecannotaccuratelyobservethemselves;peoplelie;peoplearestupid;schemaarenotneutral;metricsinfluenceresults;andthere’smorethanonewaytodescribesomething.Anothercriticisauthor,blogger,andprofessorClayShirky.Ina2003columntitled,“TheSemanticWeb,Syllogism,andWorldview”hewrote,“Thesemanticwebisamachineforcreatingsyllogisms…despitetheirappealingsimplicity,syllogismsdon’tworkwellintherealworldbecausemostofthedataweuseisnotamenabletosucheffortlessrecombination….Thereisalistoftechnologiesthatareactuallypoliticalphilosophymasqueradingascode,alistthatincludesXanadu,Freenet,andnowthesemanticweb…likemanyvisionsthatprojectfuturebenefitsbutignorepresentcosts,itrequirestoomuchcoordinationandtoomuchenergytoeffectintherealworld,wheredeductivelogicislesseffectiveandsharedworldviewishardertocreatethanweoftenwanttoadmit.”

Shirkydidconcede,however,thatsomepositiveresultswillcomefromtheeffortsmadetowardcreatingasemanticweb.

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AccompanyingthehopesforthesemanticwebandotherInternetdevelopmentarefearsaboutthefutureofprivacyandidentityandtheneedforsecurityinanarchitectureinwhichgrowingamountsofinformationaresharedinaworldwidedatacloud.Forinstance,securityisvitalforcompaniesandindividualswhoemploysemanticwebproductsandtechnologies.Whensearchforaggregateddatabecomesmorespecific,asimplesearchforaperson’snamecanyieldhealthrecords,parkingtickets,mortgages,signatures,travelrecords,video‐viewinghabits,andanyotherrecordable,databasedinformation.People’sWeb‐searchhistories,financialtransactions,mailinglists,andsurveillancephotographyofthemandtheirhomesarebeingcollectedandcanbeaccessed,forminga“digitalshadow”foreveryindividualandgrouponrecord.

Respondents’thoughtsWiththatallasbackground,herearesomeofthemajorthemesthatemergedintheanswerstooursurvey:Toomanycomplicatedthingshavetofallintoplaceforthesemanticwebtobefullyrealized.Theideaisanobleoneandgivesthetechnologycommunitysomethingtoshootfor.Butthereistoomuchvariationamongpeopleandculturesandeconomiccompetitorstoallowforsuchagrandendeavortocometofullfruition.

“Therewillbemoreandbettermeta‐information,butitwillcontinuetobeopportunistic,siloed,andadhocin2020.”–SusanCrawford,founderofOneWebDay,InternetlawprofessorattheUniversityofMichigan,formerspecialassistantintheObamaadministrationforScience,TechnologyandInnovationPolicy;http://scrawford.net/blog/about/

“Lifeismessy.So'stheInternet."–JeffJarvis,authorof“WhatwouldGoogleDo?”,associateprofessoranddirectoroftheinteractivejournalismprogramandthenewbusinessmodelsfornewsprojectattheCityUniversityofNewYork’sGraduateSchoolofJournalism;http://www.buzzmachine.com/about‐me/

”Alas,thesemanticwebisanideathatowesmoretothedesiresofcomputingscientistsandinformationtheoristsforaworldofperfectedknowledgeandprocessedreasonthantoreality.ThesemanticwebisliketheEncyclopaediaoftheModernproject:anidealwhoseexistenceenablesustomakeprogressbutthatcanneverbeachievedbecauseitfailstoaccountfortheculturalmalleabilityofknowledge,thepoliticaleconomyofinformation,and–ultimately–theagencyofhumans,withtheirmachines,insubvertingtheidealsofpurereasontothepartialendsofpersonalgain.”–MatthewAllen,directorofthedepartmentofInternetStudiesattheSchoolofMedia,CultureandCreativeArts,CurtinUniversityofTechnology,andcriticofsocialusesandculturalmeaningsoftheInternet;http://www.netcrit.net/

“Thesemanticwebdependsoncooperationbycommercialvendors,andwhatwehaveseenmostoftenisnotcooperationbutratherselfishandnon‐sharingbehaviour.LookatApple,forexample,whichhasitsownproprietarystackfortheiPhone.OrFacebook,

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whichconsumesdata,butonlyinveryrarecasessharesit.Wherethesemanticwebwillbemosteffectivewillbeininformal,non‐commercialandundergroundactivities–butinthisenvironmenttherigidformalitythatcharacterizesthesemanticwebcannotbeenforced.Instead,wewillgetaroughlyinteroperativepolyglot,ascharacterized,forexample,byRSS.Fromtimetotimethesewillsurfaceandbecomewidespread,breakingthecommercialcompanies'proprietarymonopoly.Butitwillbeanongoingstruggle,andsemanticwebapplicationswillstruggletobecomemainstream.”–StephenDownes,seniorresearchofficer,NationalResearchCouncilofCanada,andspecialistinonlinelearning,newmedia,pedagogyandphilosophy;http://www.downes.ca/me/index.htm

"It'sbeenadecadeandeveryonestillsays‘semanticwhat?’Dowereallyneedanotherdecadetofigurethisout?”—StuartSchechter,MicrosoftResearch;http://research.microsoft.com/en‐us/people/stus/

"Semanticwebisalostcause.Berners‐Leelookedatthelandscape,pickedoutcertainfeatures,bundledthemtogetherandcalleditsemanticweb.But,unfortunately,to99%ofthepopulation,thesemanticsofthisterm,i.e.themeaningofit,isatotalmystery.Asaresult,nobodyisdemandingit,anditwillnothappen.However,someofthefeaturesthatwerebundledunderthisumbrella,willbecomemorecommon,incertaincontexts.Semanticwebtriedtoboiltheocean,andfailed,asonewouldexpect.”–MichaelDillon,networkconsultantatBTandacareerprofessionalinIPnetworkingsince1992,memberofBT’sIPNumberPolicyAdvisoryForum;http://uk.linkedin.com/pub/michael‐dillon/4/663/4B

“Idon'tlikeansweringthisquestioninthenegative,butIunderstandBerners‐Lee'sconceptofthesemanticwebasbeingmorestructuredthanthevariouscollectionsoffolksonomiesandAPIsthatwehavetoday,andIdon'tforeseeusprogressingfarinthatdirectioninthecoming10years.AmorestructuredwebcanbeenabledbyenhancementstoHTML,forexample,butgettingpeopletoadoptthoseenhancementsandusethemconsistentlyandregularlyisanothermatter.Therearealsotheissuesofhumanlanguagetobeconsidered;linkagesacrosslanguageswillremainproblematic.EvenifasemanticwebemergesfortheEnglish‐languageweb,whatabouteveryoneelse?”–MindyMcAdams,KnightChairinjournalism,UniversityofFlorida,author,“FlashJournalism:HowtoCreateMultimediaNewsPackages,”journalist,http://mindymcadams.com/index.htm

“Justasitisimpossibletopreventslang,argot,andcreolesfromforming,sowewillcontinuetodemonstratepolymorphousperversityinourexpressionandknowledgeproduction."–SandraBraman,professorintheDepartmentofCommunication,UniversityofWisconsin‐Milwaukee,andexpertonthemacro‐leveleffectsofnewinformationtechnologies;https://pantherfile.uwm.edu/braman/www/html/bio.html

“Thesemanticwebconceptdisregardsthefundamentalfuzzinessandvariabilityofhumancommunication.Itmayallowustocopewiththehugequantityofinformationavailableinelectronicformandmayprovidesomeinitialorder,butthelatterwon'tbeanymoreeffectivethanearlierknowledgeorganizationsystemshavebeen.Theproliferationofagentscoupledwiththelackofauthoritymayindeedleadtomuchlesseffectiveresults.”–MichelJ.Menou,Ph.D,informationscience,independentconsultantinICTpolicy,visitingprofessorandassociateresearcher,SchoolofLibrary,Archivesand

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InformationServices,UniversityCollegeLondon;http://slisweb.sjsu.edu/people/faculty/menoum/menoum.php

“ThereistoomuchworkinvolvedonthepartofwebsiteownersforthesemanticWebtowork.Variouseffortstoputmoremeta‐dataonwebpageshavenotworked.It'shardtoseewhytheSWshouldbedifferent.”–PengHwaAng,deanoftheSchoolofCommunicationandInformation,NanyangTechnologicalUniversity,Singapore,andactiveleaderintheglobalInternetgovernanceprocessesofWSISandIGF;http://www3.ntu.edu.sg/sci/about/profile_AngPengHwa.html

“Ilovethesemanticweb,butIstillseetheconstructioncostsbeingFARtoohightomeettheloftygoalsofTBLetal.JustlookatthestateofCMS[contentmanagementsystems].Well‐builtHTMLisstillararity,addontopofthattherequirementsofmicroformats,RDF,OWL,orsimilartechniquesanditwillonlyfindpracticalapplicationswithinformalizedinformationsystemssuchasWikipedia,IMDB,etc.”–RoarkeLynch,Director,NetSmartzWorkshopfortheNationalCenterForMissingandExploitedChildren

“Thekeyproblemwiththesemanticwebistheproblemoffalsedataandtrust.Ithinkitisagreatideaintheory,andmanyoftheseprinciplesofthesemanticwebwillbemoredeeplyintegratedintotheservicesweuse,butanautomatedweb‐for‐machinesthatautomaticallymakebetterdecisionsforusbecauseofthedatatheyexportisapipedream.”–DavidSifry,founderofTechnoratiandCEOofOffbeatGuides;http://www.sifry.com/alerts/about/

Forgettheskeptics.Thesemanticwebwilltakeshapeandlaunchan“ageofknowledge.”Earlysuccesseswillbuildmomentum.

“Withinthenext10years,thesemanticwebwilltakeusfromtheageofinformationtotheageofknowledge.Simpletoolsandserviceswillallowindividuals,corporationsandgovernmentstoquicklygleanmeaningfromthevastamountsofdatatheyhavecompiled.Thismovefroma‘WorldWideWeb’toa‘worldwidedatabase’willallowforhiddenrelationshipsandconnectionstoquicklysurface,drivingbothinnovationand(unfortunately)exploitation.Theimpactofthesemanticwebwillbesubstantial.Itwillhelpcreatenewindustries,influencecampaignstrategiesandleadtoground‐breakingdiscoveriesinbothscienceandmedicine.”–BryanTrogdon,presidentofFirstSemantic,http://www.ted.com/profiles/view/id/63628

“Yes,butwewon'tcallitthat...and,asinthesecondoption,noonewillnotice.”–EstherDyson,founderandCEOofEDventure,investorandserialboardmember,journalistandcommentatoronemergingdigitaltechnology;http://www.edventure.com/new‐bio.html

“Itmaynotbeimplementedfullyasenvisioned,butthevalueofasemanticwebwillbecometransparent.Earlysuccesseswilldemonstrateitsvalueleadingotherstoexperimentwithsemantictechnology.”–RobertCannon,seniorcounselforInternetlawattheUSFederalCommunicationsCommission;http://www.cybertelecom.org/cannon.htm

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“TheestablishmentoftheWebScienceTrustisakeyaspectofwhatisgoingonhere.Thewebiscomingofage,andtheneedforanewscienceiswellunderstood.Tim[Berners‐Lee]isdrivingthis.Itisalogicalandevolutionarystepthatisbeingtakentoday,andbuildsupontheworkhe'sdrivenaswellascatalysedinthesemanticwebandinLinkedData.“–JPRangaswami,chiefscientist,BritishTelecommunications;http://uk.linkedin.com/in/jprangaswami

“Developmentscontinueallthetimeinfindingwaystoassociateonlinecontentandretrievepatternsfromthem.Meaningwillbeincreasinglyextractable.”–RonRice,Ph.D,co‐directoroftheCarsey‐WolfCenterforFilm,TelevisionandNewMedia,UniversityofCalifornia‐SantaBarbara,divisionalofficer,InternationalCommunicationAssociationandAcademyofmanagement;http://www.comm.ucsb.edu/faculty/rrice/bio.htm

“WhenIthinkofthesemanticwebIthinkof‘intelligentapplications.’Thesecouldbeassimpleassmarterwebbrowsersande‐mailclientsthatcanunderstandnaturallanguageinstructionsandcompletemorecomplextaskslikeautomaticallybookingflightsforus,emailingfriendsandmarkingourcalendars.Itcouldalsobesystemsthatcanprocessdatafrommultiplelinkedsourcesandarriveatsomethingnew.Likeacorporatesystemthatevaluatestheareasofexpertiseofitsemployeesandrecommendsoptimalprojectteams.Oraknowledge‐managementsystemthatcantellyouwhetheraparticularideayoujustthoughtofisalreadybeingworkedonbysomeoneelse.Theproblemwiththewebtodayisthatit’smostlydesignedforpeopletounderstand.Buttheapplicationsweusetomakelifeeasierallhaveahardtimemakingsenseofinformation.Thesemanticwebchangesthat.”–ChrisMarriott,AcxiomCorporationanddigitalmarketingadvisorfortheAssociationofNationalAdvertisers

“I'msayingyestothisonemorebecauseIwishitandhopeforitthanthatIknoworfeelittobetheclearshapeofthingstocome.Ithinkwe'restillatthebeginningofthesemanticWeb.Ihopethatby2020it'satleastahealthytoddler.”–JoshuaFreeman,directorofinteractiveservices,ColumbiaUniversityInformationTechnology;http://www.linkedin.com/in/jfreeman

Improvementsareinevitable,buttheywillnotunfoldthewayTimBerners‐Leeandhisallieshavesketchedout.Theywillbegrassroots‐drivenratherthanstandards‐driven.Datamining,links,analysisofsocialexchangeswillhelpdrivetheprocessofsmarteningthewebwithoutmoreformalsemanticapps.

"Ifirmlybelievethatthewebof2020willbesubstantiallymoresemanticthanitistoday–butitwon'tbethesemanticwebintheorthodoxdefinitionpromotedbyBerners‐Leeetal.Thetrajectoryofrecentyears(especiallywiththetransitionto'Web2.0')hasbeenoneofincreasedmetadatageneration,andthosedatacanbeharnessedassemanticinformation,ofcourse–buttheywillcontinuetoconformtotheirown,continuallyemergingandchangingschemataratherthantoauniformsemanticdescriptionlanguageasthesemanticwebinitiativepostulatesit.Thisneednotmakethesemanticinformationavailableonthewebanylessusefuloreffective,however,asthetoolsforextractingandprocessingsuchnon‐standardmetadatafromthefolksonomicjumblethatisthewebhavealsobecomemoreandmorepowerful–butitisauser‐generated,

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semanticwebfrombelowratherthanawell‐ordered,well‐structuredsemanticwebfromabove.It'sthetriumphofaGoogle‐style'bruteprocessingpower'approachtomakingsenseoftheWeboveraYahoo!‐style'orderlyontologies'approach,alloveragain."–AxelBruns,associateprofessor,Media&Communication,QueenslandUniversityofTechnologyandgeneraleditorofthejournalMediaandCulture;http://au.linkedin.com/in/snurb

“Artificialintelligencewillcertainlyaccomplishmanyifnotallofthegoalsofthesemanticweb,butIdonotthinkthatthesemanticwebistherightmechanismforhelpingcomputerstrulyunderstandtheInternet.Theideabehindthesemanticwebistooartificialandmakestoomanyfalseassumptionsabouttheinputs.”–HalEisen,seniorsoftwareengineeringmanagerforAsk.com;http://www.linkedin.com/pub/hal‐eisen/0/95/a24

“Myanswerismisleadinghere,becauseIthinksemantictechnologiesarealreadyhavingahugeimpact,andwillcontinuetodevelopandimproveahostofareasinIT.However,thevisionofTimBerners‐LeeandotherSemWebevangelistshasoftenbeenunrealistic–notbecauseofthetechbutbecauseofthehumanlogisticsanddesiresforcontrol.Muchofwhattheytalkedabout(e.g.,thedentistappt.example)willbeaddressedmoreeffectivelythroughsocialcomputingasmuchassemantictech,andthetwowillbeincrementallyimprovedandintegratedintoITworkflowsinsuchamannerthatmostuserswillnevernoticetheimprovement–itwilljust‘workbetter’andbeseenasanaturalevolution,ratherthanasaresultofsomeparticulartechnology.”–PatrickSchmitz,semanticservicesarchitect,UniversityofCaliforniaBerkeley

“Ithinksomeformofnextgenerationmeta‐webisinevitable,butitwillprobablytakedirectionsnotenvisionedbyBerners‐Leeorhiscohorts.Evolutiontendstobecharacterizedbychaos,whichtraitmakesitwellnighimpossibletopredictwithanydegreeofcertainty.Futuretechnologyhasneverreallybeenverydeterministic.”–RobertG.Ferrell,informationsystemssecurityofficerfortheNationalBusinessCenteroftheU.S.DepartmentoftheInterior;http://www.theplinth.org/

“ManywillnotbothertocodetheirwebpagesthewaythesemanticWebproponentswouldlikeusto.Somesitesmaydothis;otherswon'tbother.TheInternetwillstillbeawildwestwithawidevarietyofcontentandqualityandsearchability.”–PeterTimusk,webmasterandInternetresearcher,statisticalproductsmanageratStatisticsCanada;http://ca.linkedin.com/in/petertimusk

“Iseeabiggerimpactfromthe‘socialweb’vs.the‘semanticweb’duetothelevelofconsumergeneratedcontentandrandominformationthatisposted.Whilewewillhavemorewaystocreatecontentandreadthecontentandwillbemoreconnectedthaneverbefore,itwillbemoresocial.Theaverageuserwillcontinuetolooktofriendsforrecommendationsforinformation–regardlessoftheformthosecomeinandwill,ashumansdo,trusttheirfriendsmorethananythingelse.”–ElaineYoung,associateprofessor,ChamplainCollege;http://www.linkedin.com/in/elainejyoung

“Theproblemsfacingthesuccessfularrivalofasemanticwebarenotsimplytechnological,butlieinsignificantpartinthehumanelementitself.Thenatureofhuman‐producedcontentmakesitextremelydifficulttocategorisewithoutlossof

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accuracyorreliability.Inlibrariestherearecertainrequirements,andagreedformats,andeventhenitisnecessarytoblurlinesandenduremistakes.Itwilltakemorethantenorelevenyearsforthehuman‐producedcontentoftheInternettobecomecompatiblewiththeideaofasemanticWeb.Inconsideringsemanticweb,itisimportanttonotethatthesortofInternetenvisionedbyTimBerners‐Leeisquitedifferentfromtheoneweseemtobedeveloping.”–FrancisJ.L.Osborn,philosopher,UniversityofWales‐Lampeter

"Idon'tperceivethatwehavealongwaytogobefore‘semanticlinks’becomethenorm.Wedon'tneedsystemsthatarefullyintelligent;evendumbsystemscanappeartodosemanticlinkagessuchasmatching‘crimson’to‘red.’Lookatthemusicwebsites,suchasPandora,thatarealreadymovinginthesedirections."–KarlAuerbach,chieftechnicalofficeratInterWorkingLabs,Inc.;http://www.linkedin.com/in/karlauerbach

"Thesemanticwebwillhavehadaneffect,butitwillnotbethesemanticwebenvisionedbyTimBerners‐Lee,butamuchmoreinformalone,wheremeaningwillbeobtainedmoreoutofdataminingandotherstatisticaltechniques.Also,itwillhaveclearlymadeadifferencetotheaverageInternetusers,butmostofthemwillnotnotice."–CésarCórcoles,professorattheUniversitatObertadeCatalunya,Barcelona,Spain;http://obm.corcoles.net/

“In2020wewillhaveasemanticweb,butitwillbeabootstrappedone,thatadaptstotheimmenseamountofconversationflowingbackandforththroughtheweb.”—FredStutzman,Ph.Dcandidate,researcherandteachingfellow,SchoolofInformationandLibraryScience,UNC‐ChapelHill;http://fredstutzman.com/index.html

"Thesemanticwebisanoverhypedsetofstandardsforlinkingdata.SirTim'sbrilliantideawiththewebwastocreateasinglesimpleprotocolforaccessinganumberofdisparatekindsofdata.Thesemanticwebisnotsuchasimpleidea,butisinsteadaseriesofhighmarginalcost,frequentlycontestableontologiesandmetatextmark‐up.Itsnotbad,butnorisitsimple.Bycontrast,thegeniusofFriendsterwastocallthelinksthatpeoplehadonlineas'friend's.No,theymaynotberealfriends,butitisaworkablemetaphor.Iparallelthisinnovationtotheinnovationofcreating‘http’:simple,uniformandemergent.Sonowcomparethepresentsuccessofsocialnetworksitesbasedonthefriendmodel(Facebook,MySpace,Orkut)totheFriend‐of‐a‐Friend(FOAF)ontology.Thelatterisperhapsthemostsuccessfulsemanticwebtechnology.Itishaslittleoveramillionusers.Halfabillionpeopleareonsocialnetworksites.Thesemanticwebwillbehandyforincreasedcategorizationofdata,butitwillnotrepresentaquantumleapforwardinintelligibilityfortheenduser.Collaborativefilteringandmachinelearningstylecategorizationoftheemergentnetworksbasedonthesimplefriendmodelwillmakeadifference,aswillfutureadvancesinmachinelearningingeneral."–BernieHogan,researchfellow,OxfordInternetInstitute,UniversityofOxford;http://people.oii.ox.ac.uk/hogan/

Thetimelineofthisquestionisoff.Thesemanticwebisshapingup,butitwilltakelongerthanthe10yearsthequestioncited.

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“By2020,efficientwaystoexchangestructureddatawilldefinitelybeinplaceandtherewillbemorestructuretoallsortsofcontent,rangingfromend‐usergeneratedcontenttoonlinegovernmentdata.Tim'svisionofthesemanticweb–however–meansthatprettymucheverybodywillhavetoupgradetheirdatabases,contentmanagementsystemsandsuchtosomethingthatsupportsRDFandotherW3Cstandards.Lookingatthenumberoflegacysystemsthatareinplacetoday,*especially*ingovernment,banking,transportationandotherplacesthatarehighlyimportanttothisvision,Iremainskepticalthatthiswillhappenwithin10years.Judgingfromwhatwe'veseenhappenintheworldofwebservices,whereREST‐fulinterfacesarekillingoffheavierapproachessuchasXML‐RPCandSOAP,we'llprobablyseeabottom‐upapproachwhereafew,simplermethodswillfulfillasmallersetofthesem‐webvision."–HjalmarGislason,founderandCEOofDataMarket;formerdirectorofbusinessdevelopmentatIcelandTelecom;http://is.linkedin.com/in/hjalli

“Ibelieveasemanticwebwillcome,but2020istooearlyforittohaveanysignificanteffect.Idon'tseehowwecoulddeploythesemanticWebinthelargewithoutsignificantbehaviouralchanges,andittakesadecadeortwoforsignificantbehaviouralchangestotakeplace.(Thinkofhowlongittookfore‐mailtobecomewidespread.)Thisisaverylongprocess–aGOODconcept,butmaybehardtogenerateadoption.”–PekkaNikander,Ericssonvisitingseniorresearchscientist,HelsinkiInstituteforInformationTechnology,chiefscientist,EricssonResearchNomadiclab;http://fi.linkedin.com/pub/pekka‐nikander/0/43/b98

“Theadoptioncurveforsemanticwebwillbelongerthanwe'd(orI'd)like.Thisisatechnologythatneedsacriticalmassinordertofullyrealizeitspotential.Idon'tknowthatwewillgetthere.Theconceptaloneishardforpeopletounderstandandhardforcompaniestoadopt.Addtothecurrentcomplexityofthetechnology,andIthinkwe'llseegiantleapsforwardby2020,butitwillnotbecommonplaceoran‘invisible’technology.”–AllisonAnderson,manageroflearninginnovationsandtechnologyatIntelCorporation;http://www.linkedin.com/pub/allison‐anderson/0/b74/a65

“Theavailabilityofnewtechnologiesoccurslongbeforetheycanberolledoutandimplementedonalargescale.IdonotseeanyindicationthatweareanymorereadyforanewInternetthanwearereadytotakenecessarystepstodealwithclimatechange.”–BenjaminMordechaiBen‐Baruch,seniormarketintelligenceconsultantandappliedsociologist,consultantforGeneralMotors;http://home.earthlink.net/~bbenbaruch/

“Asaspecialistinmappingsemanticandsocialnetworksminedfromthewebanddevelopingfromtheseimprovedoptimalcommunicationmessages,Ienvisionthisfirstscenarionotbeingdominantinthenext10yearsbutinapproximately30years.Researchtrendstendtohave10‐,20‐,and30‐yearcyclesandthenamoveupwardtobeginanotherseriesofcyclesatahigherlevelofsophistication.Wehavealreadyreachedtheendofthefirst30‐yearcyclegiventhatsemanticnetworkanalysisofwebasweknewitinthe’70s‐’80swaswhenwebegansemanticnetworkanalysisofmaterialavailableonComputerBulletinBoardSystems(CBBS),Arpanet,Bitnet,etc.Weneedanother30‐yearcycle,Ithinkforthefirstscenariotocometofruition.”–JamesA.Danowski,professorattheUniversityofIllinoisatChicago,founderofthe

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CommunicationandTechnologyDivisionoftheInternationalCommunicationAssociation;http://www.uic.edu/depts/comm/facultydanowski.shtml

Thesemanticwebwillnotreallytakeoffuntilitfindsitskillerapp–somethingweallfindthatweneed.

“Tim’sWorldWideWebwasaverysimpleandusableideathatreliedonverysimpleandusablenewstandards(e.g.HTMLandHTTP),whichwerebigreasonwhythewebsucceeded.Thesemanticwebisaverycomplexidea,andonethatrequiresalotofthingstogorightbeforeitworks.Orsoitseems.TimBerners‐LeeintroducedtheSemanticWebRoadmap(http://www.w3.org/DesignIssues/Semantic.html)inSeptember1998.Sincethenmorethan11yearshavepassed.Somesemanticwebtechnologieshavetakenroot:RDFa,forexample,andmicroformats.Buttheconceptitselfhasenergizedarelativelysmallnumberofpeople,andthereisno‘killer’techoruseyet.Thatdoesn’tmeanitwon’thappen.Inventionisthemotherofnecessity.Thesemanticwebwilltakeoffwhensomebodyinventssomethingweallfindweneed.Maybethatsomethingwillbebuiltoutofsomecombinationofcodeandprotocolsalreadylayingaround–eitherwithintheexistingsemanticwebportfolio,orfromsomeparalleleffortsuchasXDI.Ormaybeitwillcomeoutoftheblue.Bywhatevermeans,theidealsofthesemanticweb–awebbasedonmeaning(semantics)ratherthansyntax(theWeb’scurrentmodel)–willstilldrivedevelopment.Andwe’llbeadecadefartheralongin2020thanwearein2010.”–DocSearls,fellow,BerkmanCenterforInternet&Society,HarvardUniversityandHarvardLawSchool,fellowatCenterforInformationTechnologyandSociety,UniversityofCalifornia‐SantaBarbara;http://www.linkedin.com/pub/doc‐searls/0/0/a54

“WithallduerespecttoSirTim,Ithinkthesemanticwebhasfailedtoreachcriticalmassbecausethebenefitsaren'tclearenoughtowarrantawholesalemigration.TheevolutionofpracticesontheWebmayincorporateSWaspects,butitwillbetoosubtleforuserstonotice.”–MarkRichmond,technologistforUSDistrictCourts,foundingboardmemberoftheNationalOnlineMediaAssociation(1993)

ThekillerappwillcomewhenwecanasktheInternetquestions–andthatwillmakethingsmuchmoreefficient.Conversationalsearchwillbethekeytoopeningusers’eyestothepotentialforthesemanticweb.

"ImaginetheabilitytoaccesstheInternetbyaskingsimplequestionssuchas‘bestflighttoLondon’or‘besttreatmentforheartdiseasefor60‐year‐olds’andthenhavethesemanticwebgiveyoucertifiablycorrectanswersfromreliablesourcesthataretimely.ThisiswhatwillsoonbepossibleusingthesemanticwebandtheGGG(GiantGlobalGraph)ofinterconnectedtuplesofglobalknowledge(Subject,Predicate,Object).WealreadyhavetheCIAFactBook,Wikipedia,FOAFandotherknowledgesourcesaccessibleviatheGiantGlobalGraph.Thiswillcertainlygetdeepenedby2020.Internetuserswillbeabletoaskquestionswithoutnecessarilyhavingtosortthroughresults.Searchresultsthemselveswillbemuchmorerelevant,timelyandcorrectly

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categorized.Muchtimewillbesavedandtheoverallqualityofuserexperienceintermsoftrustandutilitywillbesignificantlybeyondwhatwehavetoday."–WilliamLuciw,managingdirectoratViewpointWestPartnersanddirectoratSezmiInc.,andformerlyseniordirectorofproductsandstand–upphilosopheratseveralotherSiliconValleycompanies;http://www.linkedin.com/in/williamluciw

"AI[ArtificialIntelligence]watcherspredictthatnatural‐languagesearch,whichrepresentsacomponentofsemanticsearch,willreplacewhatsomecall‘keywordese’infiveyears.Oncesearchevolvesfromanawkwardwordhunt–guessingatthekeywordsthatmightbeinthedocumentyou’relookingfor–toa‘conversation’withanAIentity,thenextlogicalstepisvocalconversationwithyourcomputer.Askaquestionandgetananswer.Noreadingnecessary.ThatistheultimateincarnationoftheSemanticwebanditwilllikelyexistwellbefore2020andwillhaveasignificantimpactonculture.BarneyPell,whosecompanyPowersetwasalsoworkingonaconversational‐searchinterfacebeforeitwasacquiredbyMicrosoft,dismissedthenotionthatacomputerizedentitycouldeffectivelyfilltheroleoftext,buthedoesacknowledgethatbreakthroughsofallsortsarepossible.‘Theproblemwithstoringrawsoundsisthatit’sasequentialaccessmedium;youhavetolistentoit.Youcan’tdootherthingsinparallel,’saidPellduringour2007discussion.‘Butifyouhaveabreakthroughwhereauditoryorvisualinformationcouldconnecttoahumanbraininawaythatbypassestheprocessesofdecodingthewrittentext,whereyoucangoasfastandslowasyouwantandhaveallthepropertiesthattextualwrittenmediasupports,thenIcouldbelievethattextcouldbereplaced.’Thelikelihoodofthatscenariodependsonwhomyouask,butiftechnologicalprogressincomputationisanyindication,wearesafeinassumingthatanartificialintelligenceentitywilleventuallyemergethatallowsindividualstoprocessinformationasquicklyorasslowlyasreadingwrittenlanguage.”–PatrickTucker,senioreditor,TheFuturistmagazine;http://www.linkedin.com/pub/patrick‐tucker/5/574/B86

Creatingthesemanticwebisadifficultthingthatwilldependonmachinesthatcanstraightenoutthemassiveconfusionsandcomplicationsthathumanscreate.

"Thetruthisthatthesemanticwebisa*hard*problem,andwon'tbesolveduntil/unlesswehave‘sentient’or‘conscious’Turing‐capablecomputers–whichIdon'texpectby2020.Ontheotherhand,acombinationofbetterontologiesandjustgreatercomputingcapacitywillallowmoreinformationtobepre‐computedandsearchable,so‘search’andwhatIcall‘onlinecomputer‐assistedreasoning’,likeWolfram|Alpha,willbemuchmorepowerful.Mostly,however,peoplewon'treallynotice,excepttocomplainwhenasearchgivesthemsomethingotherthanwhattheywanted."–CharlieMartin,correspondentandscienceandtechnologyeditor,PajamasMedia,technicalwriter,PointSourceCommunications,correspondent,Edgelings.com;http://www.linkedin.com/in/chasrmartin

“Imaybewrongonthisone,butpeoplearebusyandlazy,andtheapplications,liketextsearch,thatsucceedtendtobeonesthatrequirenoextraworkbythoseenteringdata–theyareby‐productsoftheworkwedoforourselves.Weincludelinksindocumentsbecausetheyhelpusandthoseusingourservices,nottohelpGoogle

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betterestimatetherelevanceofthedocumenttoaquery.Itmightturnoutthatacentralizedapproach,wherethemissionoforganizationslikeWolframAlphaistoaddsemanticvalue,willleadtothe‘Webofdata.’"–LarryPress,professorofinformationsystems,CaliforniaStateUniversity,DominguezHills

Thetrackrecordofproponentsofartificialintelligenceisjustnotgoodenoughtojustifythehopethatmachineswilllearntounderstandthehumanmeaningofthings.

“Insomeways,semanticwebhastheidealsofLisporartificialintelligenceinthe’80s–itseemsattractiveonthesurfacebutthetechnologystillhasalongwaytogo.However,wewillcontinuetoevolvetowardssoftwarethatenableseasieraccesstorealinformation,improvedsoftwarereasoningskills,andacontinuationofthe‘dowhatImean’philosophyforhuman‐computerinteraction.”–GerritHuizenga,solutionsarchitectfortheLinuxFoundationandIBM;http://www.linkedin.com/in/huizenga

"Havingseenthe[very!]limited‘successes’ofartificialintelligence(withfewlimitedexceptions,e.g.facerecognition,etc.)sinceitwasfirstproposedperhapshalfacenturyago(ormoreifyoucountscifiproposals),I'mquitecynicalabouthowmuchcanbedonealongthelinesofautomaticallyextractingMEANINGfrominformation."–JimWarren,founderandchairofthefirstComputers,Freedom,andPrivacyConferenceandlongtimetechnologyandsocietyactivist;http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Warren

“IthinkverydifficultproblemsrelatedtoartificialintelligenceunderliethesemanticWebvision.We'venotmademuchprogressonthoseproblemsindecades,andI'mnotsurewhythenextdecadewouldleadtobreakthroughs.”–ChrisDede,professoroflearningtechnologies,HarvardGraduateSchoolofEducation,emergingtechnologiesexpert;http://www.gse.harvard.edu/~dedech/

“Theover‐statedpromisesofAIinthelastcenturydemonstratethedifficultyofsemantics.Machine‐learningtechniqueshaveimproveddramaticallysotherewillbepowerfultoolsforpeopletoinfersemantics,howeverin2020mostpeoplewillcontinuetoworkwithunstructuredandsemi‐structureddata.”–GaryMarchionini,professorattheSchoolofInformationandLibraryScienceattheUniversityofNorthCarolinaatChapelHill,US;http://www.ils.unc.edu/~march/

“Meaningiselusive,dependingoncontextandperspectiveandarangeofhumanintellectualprocessesthatwestillonlydimlyunderstand.Despiteconfidentpredictions,AIandExpertSystemsandotherattemptstocapturemeaningthroughmachine‘intelligence’havefallenfarshortoftheirhype.Thesemanticwebisonlythelatestnewthingthatwilldisappointitshopefulchampions."–MarkU.Edwards,senioradvisortothedean,HarvardUniversityDivinitySchool

“Thesemanticwebislikeartificialintelligence.It'salwaysjustaroundthecornerintheory,anddisappointinginpractice.”–SethFinkelstein,anti‐censorshipactivistandprogrammer,authoroftheInfothoughtblogandanEFFPioneerAwardwinner;http://sethf.com/infothought/blog/

“ThisisthelatestincarnationofalonglineoffutileAIendeavorsthathavenotsucceededandwouldn'tdomuchofwhatishopedforthemeveniftheydidreachfruition.ThisoneIwouldnotexpecttoseeby2030either.”–JonathanGrudin,

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principalresearcherinhuman‐computerinteractionandcomputer‐supportedcooperativeworkatMicrosoftResearch;http://research.microsoft.com/en‐us/um/people/jgrudin/

“Thesemanticwebwillbehereby2020butinamodifiedandevolvedformfromBerners‐Leevision.Asinformationstoragebecomesmoreaccessiblethe‘semantics’willbeintheapplicationsnotinthebaseweblanguage.WithsmarterandsmarterAIbasedcomputing,contextualcodingwillgoawayandthebasesoftwarewilldothecontextualcodingandunderstanding.Thirtyyearsagowewouldhavesaidthatamachine’sabilitytorecognizesimplewordsandsignsinvariedtextswastotallylimitedwithoutcontextualmarkers.Today,glorifiedtoyscananalyzeyouryogamovesandcorrecttheformallfromanunder‐$50UScameralinkedtogamingdevice(withhowmanymoretimescomputingpowerthatwhatittooktogettothemoon).Ithinkthatwewillseeamergeof‘recognition’technologiesand‘learning’softwaretoreadatextandextrapolatethemeaningandlinks.”–CameronLewis,ProgramManager,ArizonaDepartmentofHealthServices

“The2020headlineswillproclaim(forthe17thyearinarow)that‘next’yearwillbetheyearthatsemanticWebtakesoff(ofcourse,thatnamewillbeindisrepute,aswillitsseveralreplacementssuchasberner–topiaandlee–eden.ThefalseiconofsemanticWebbingof2021willbeknownasbernersleesation).”–SteveSawyer,associateprofessor,collegeofinformationsciencesandtechnology,PennStateUniversity;http://ist.psu.edu/ist/directory/faculty/?EmployeeID=3

Humantendencies,preferences,andhabitswilldeterminetheextentofthesuccessofthesemanticweb–andprobablythwartfullrealizationofthedream.Ifpeopletakethetimetocreatesitesanddatabasesusinginformationstandards,thenmajorprogresswillbemade.Yetplentyoffactorscould,andlikelywill,standintheway.

"Asorganizationsandnewssitesputmoreandmoreinformationonline,they'relearningthevalueoforganizingandcross‐linkinginformation.Ithinkthesemanticwebistakingoffinasmallwayonsiteaftersite:abetterbreakdownoftermsononemedicalsite,ataxonomyonaDrupal‐poweredblog,etc.ButBerners‐Leehadamuchgrandervisionofthesemanticwebthanbetterinformationretrievalonindividualsites.He'sgunningforcontentprovidersandWebdesignerstheworldaroundtopulltogetherandprovideeasynavigationfromonesitetoanother,despitewidedifferencesintheircontributors,topics,styles,andviewpoints.Thismayhappensomeday,justasartificialintelligenceislookingmorefeasiblethanitwastenyearsago,butthechasmbetweenthepresentandthefutureisenormous.Tomakethebigvisionwork,we'llallhavetousethesame(oroverlapping)ontologies,withstandardsforextendingandvaryingtheontologies.We'llneedtodisambiguatethingslikewebbedfeetfromtheWorldWideWeb.I'msuretoolstohelpusdothiswillgetsmarter,buttheyneedtogetawholelotsmarter.Evenwithtoolsandprotocolsinplace,itwillbehardtogetbillionsofwebsitestojointheproject.Herethecloudmaybeofhelp.IfGooglecanperformthestatisticalanalysisandcreatetherelevantlinks,Idon'thavetodoitonmyownsite.

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ButIbetresultswouldbemuchbetterifIhadinput.”–AndyOram,editorandblogger,O’ReillyMedia;http://radar.oreilly.com/andyo/

Sure,therewillbesomeresistance,buttherearefairlystrongincentivestocooperate,too.

"Thesemanticwebisgoingtoprettyfleshedoutby2020,asmostdatawillbesurroundedbyrichframesofmetadatathathelpmachinesmakesenseofit.Itwillbestupidtobuildnewdatabasesthatdon’texposethismetadataanditwillbeeasierandmorelucrativetocreatemetadatalayersforlegacydata."–AnthonyTownsend,directoroftechnologydevelopment,InstitutefortheFuture;http://www.iftf.org/user/20

“By2020,it'sinevitablethatthewebwillbetransformedbyintelligentagentsandmachinestalkingmuchmorereadilyandeffectivelytoothermachines.Toomanypeopleatbothendsofthepipestandtobenefitforthisnottohappen.Theweb,barelytwodecadesold,hasbeentransformedbythedevelopmentoftechnologieslikeXMLandJavascript.Webdevelopershavepowerfulincentivestokeepaddingfunctionalityandease‐of‐usetobrowsers.Thisispartlyamatterofthesheernumbersofend‐userswhohavemadetheInternetpartoftheirdailylives.

“NolessimportantistherolethathasbeenassumedbythebrowserasboththeprimarywindowontheInternetatlargeandtheinterfaceformanyonce‐distinctfunctions,likeemailandFTP.Infact,thewebbrowserhasbecomesocentraltotheonlineexperiencethatmostpeopleItalkto(includingcommunicationstudiesmajors)aresurprisedandconfusedtolearnthatthewebandtheInternetarenotco‐extensive.

“Whatisnotaforegoneconclusion,however,istherolethatBerners‐Leeandhisallieswillplayinthisdevelopmentcycleoverthenextdecade.IthinkitunlikelythatthesemanticwebwillgrowasasingleplatformentirelywithinthecontrolofBerners‐LeeandtheW3C.There'stoomuchmoneytobemadeandtoogreatatemptationtoworkaroundauniversalsetofstandards,ashasbeendemonstratedinthepastbycompanieslikeMicrosoft….

“But[thesemanticweb]facesanumberofmajorobstacles.First,competitiveissues.NoteveryonesubscribestothevisionexpoundedbyBerners‐Lee.There'sprobablyalotofmoneytobemadehere,acompellingreasonforsomedeveloperstocreatesolutionsoutsidethesemanticwebframework.Second,technicalissues.Naturallanguageisrifewithambiguity,anastyproblemthathasplaguedmachine‐assistedtranslationfordecades.It'shardtoimaginethesemanticwebasanend‐game,withhumanoidagentsabletooperatefreeofhumanintervention.Third,socialissues.Theverysuccessofsucharadicaluser‐interfaceparadigmwillposethreatstoend‐usercontrolandprivacy.Themorethesemanticwebsucceeds,themoreweshouldbeconcernedaboutwhatwe'reforfeitingtoouragentsandthosewhocreatethem….Inotherwords,thesemanticwebshouldnotbeseenasentirelybenign.Onceoutofthelab,itwillhavetocontendwiththemanyfrailties,andoccasionalbadfaith,ofthecreaturesit'sintendedtohelp."–DavidEllis,directorofcommunicationstudiesatYorkUniversity,Toronto,andauthorofthefirstCanadianbookontherootsoftheInternet;http://ca.linkedin.com/in/drdavidellis

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Therewillbeanupstairs‐downstairsqualitytoadoptionanduse.EliteandspecializeduserswillbeabletotakeadvantageofthesemanticwebinwaysthateverydayInternetuserslikelywillnot.Businessapplicationswillhavemorestakeholdersthanconsumerorsocialapps.Particularactivitieswillbethenorm,ratherthanactivitiesthatappearsimilarthroughouttheweb.

“Withinrestrictedcommunitiesorsmallfamiliesofwebsites,ontologiesarepossiblewithoutstranglingthedevelopmentofacommunity,butacrosstheentireweb?Noway.Never."–ChrisDiBona,opensourceandpublicsectorengineeringmanageratGoogle;http://sites.google.com/a/dibona.com/dibona‐wiki/Home/Biographies‐and‐Photos

“Thesemanticwebisjustnowbeingappliedtospecializedfieldslikemedicine,music,geography...Googleopensabigfrontdoortotheelectroniclibrary,butSWs[semanticwebs]arethecardcatalogsofthespecializedstacks.”–DonMcLagan,boardofdirectorsmemberfortheMassachusettsInnovation&TechnologyExchange,consultanttodigitalentrepreneurs,retiredCEOofCompeteInc.;http://www.linkedin.com/pub/don‐mclagan/0/26/237

“Therearefartoomanychallengesforthesemanticwebtomakeasignificantdifferenceintheaverageuser’sexperience–BUTtherewillbeleadersthatmakegooduseofthetoolsthatcanhelptocreatesiteswhereSemanticprogrammingandtoolscanbeimplemented.TheInternetisvast,andIthinkthatpredictability/vaguenessaremajorissuestoovercomeinthisarea.”–StephanAdelson,presidentofAdelsonConsultingServicesandfounderofInternetInterventions,acompanythatpromoteshealthandpatientsupport;http://www.linkedin.com/in/sadelson

“Idothinkthesemanticwebwillhavetakenhold,butthatitwillremainaspecialistandcomplexsectionofwebdevelopmentwork.Theaverageusermaywellnotperceivemuchimpactontheirdailylives,astheimpactwillbebroadbutshallow,affectingmillionsofpeopleinaverysmallway,addingthatlittleextrabenefitintermsofuserexperiencetotheirdailywebwork.Idothinkhoweverthattherewillbespecificbusinessbenefitsthathaveyettobeacknowledged,specificallyininternal(i.e.private)businessintelligence.Theabilityofthesemanticwebtonotonlyrevealcomplexdataaboutabusinessesinternalmachinations,butalsotothenvisualiseandcombinethisdataintomeaningfulgraphsthatcanbeusedforstrategicdecisionsmaywellbethekillerappthatlinkeddataislookingfor."–RichOsborne,webmanagerandwebinnovationofficer,UniversityofExeter;http://education.exeter.ac.uk/staff_details.php?user=rmosborn

“Thesemanticwebmightproveusefulincertaintightlycontrolleddomains,buttrueartificialintelligenceremainselusive."–DeanThrasher,founder,Infovark;http://www.linkedin.com/in/deanthrasher

“Iinterpretthesemanticwebasoptimizeddesignprinciples,takingroottoday.Andsomeprinciples,inmyopinion,donotjivewellwithaveragehumanbehavior–eitherfromtheperspectiveofdevelopersorusers.Itwilltakealongtimetopenetratewebdevelopmentnorms,andthoseprinciplesthatdomakeitthroughprobablywillnot‘reach’theaverageuseruntilsometimepast2020.Itwillbeunder‐recognizedbythe

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averageperson,fullyunderstoodonlybyITandwebdevelopercommunities.”–PaulDiPerna,researchdirectorandeditorattheFoundationforEducationalChoice;http://www.edchoice.org/about/ShowBiography.do?id=30&staffType=management

“Muchdependsonthedefinition.ButaliftfromthemechanicaltechniquesactingonphysicalexpressionsandlimitedgrammarsemployedbyGoogle,etc.,intoasemanticlevelofcontentanalysiswillonlytakeplacewithinverylimitedframeworks,andevensolimited,theywillbeextremelysensitivetothesemanticvariationsandrulechangesdevelopingovertimeasitisclearlymanifestedinordinarylanguageaswellasinthescholarlyandscientificvocabularies.”—NielsOleFinnemann,professor,directorattheCenterforInternetResearch,DepartmentforInformationandMediaStudies,AarhusUniversity,Denmark

“ThesemanticwebcouldgiveusthepowerofAsimov'srobots.Ifso,worldproductivitygoesup,andeconomicprosperityimproves–ordoesit?Whethergoodorbaddependsalotonaccess,notjustelectronic,butintellectual.Willeveryonehavetheeducationtobestusesuchaworld,ordoesthecomputerjustgetsmartersothathumanscangetdumber?”–EdLyell,professorofbusinessandeconomics,AdamsStateCollege,designerandconsultantforusingcomputersandtelecommunicationstoimproveschooleffectivenessthroughthecreationof21stcenturylearningcommunities;http://www.edlyell.com/About.html

“Thereisaclearbenefittoachievingthesemanticwebbutthismaynotbeapparenttotheaverageuser,whichinturnsuggeststhattheremaybeinsufficientfinancialincentive(i.e.return)toinvestorstobringitabout.Businessusersmightbenefit,butsystemsadministratorsmayprefertostickwithuser‐allocatedmetadataasamoreeasilyunderstoodandtrustedmethodofdocumenttagginganddescription.Documentandrecordsmanagementsystemsneedtoevolveconsiderablynotjusttoincorporatethesemanticwebbuttoofferclearadvantagestocorporatebuyersneedingtocomplywithdisclosurelegislation(FreedomofInformation,Sarbanes‐Oxley,etc).”–PeterGriffiths,independentinformationspecialistandconsultantandformerpresidentoftheUKCharteredInstituteofLibraryandInformationProfessionals;http://uk.linkedin.com/in/peterdgriffiths

Theveryessenceoftheideaofthesemanticwebcontinuestoevolve,asdoeseveryaspectoftheInternet;itisdifficulttopredictwhatwillhappenbecausetheaspirationsofitsproponentsareshiftingtotakeaccountofnewrealitiesandcurrentlimitations.

“Thesemanticwebisaliquidconceptthathaschangedastechnology–andsocioeconomic–interestshaveevolvedalongtime.Inabroadsense,thesemanticwebisaboutmachinesunderstandinghumans–theirbehaviour,theiractions,theirknowledgeoutcomes–withoutthesehavingtotellorcommandthem.Inthisbroadsense,thesemanticwebislikelytoleapforwardinthecomingyears.Augmentedrealitywillbegintoseriouslybridgetheofflineandtheonlineworldsor,bettersaid,tobridgeanalogueanddigitalworlds.Thisbridgewillacceleratethealreadyvertiginouspathtowardspouringimmenseamountsofdataindigitalformat,whichwilldefinitelyhelpsearchenginesandallcomputingtasksingeneralinperformingsemanticactivities.Of

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course,theevolutionofhardwarewillalsocontributeinthis,andwearelikelytoseeanunderstandable’stepback’insoftwaredesign:itmightbecomeworthittoreplacecleveralgorithmswithbruteforceones,wherequantitativeapproaches(moredatawithmorecomputingpower)mightbebetterthanqualitativeones(relatedwithefficiencybasedonmetadataattachedtodata).Inanycase,despitethestateofevolutionofthesemanticweb,apointofnoreturnwillbythenhavebeenreachedinthewayweunderstandthedichotomyofanalogueanddigital,andhavingenteredanewparadigmwhereofflinevs.onlinewillnomoremakemuchsense."–IsmaelPeña‐López,lecturer,SchoolofLawandPoliticalScience,OpenUniversityofCatalonia,researcher,InternetInterdisciplinaryInstitute;http://es.linkedin.com/in/ictlogist

“By2020,thepromotersofthesemanticwebwillchangetheirdefinitionsanddeclarevictory."–AlexHalavais,vicepresidentoftheAssociationofInternetResearchers;professorandsocialinformaticsresearcher,QuinnipiacUniversity;exploresthewaysinwhichsocialcomputinginfluencessociety,authorof“SearchEngineSociety”;http://alex.halavais.net/bio

“The‘semanticweb’isadirectionfortechnologydevelopment,nota‘thing’thatcanbe‘achieved,’andwhetheraverageInternetusersnoticenotaparticularlyusefulquestion.(Forexample,averageInternetusersdon'tnoticemuchofadifferencefrom‘XML’either,eventhoughXMLhashadsignificantpositiveimpactinindustry.)–LarryMasinter,principalscientistatAdobeSystems,TAGmemberatW3C,formerlyInternetarchitecturedirectoratAT&T;http://www.linkedin.com/in/masinter

“Alreadythesemanticwebfolkshavebackedoffontheirstatedexpectationsandaremoreinterestedindataportabilityandinteroperability.Franklythisisnotonlyarealisticmovebutasmartone.Thebestplaceforsemanticsisindatawhichstructureandmetadataanddescriptionareessential.”–PaulJones,founderanddirectorofibibilo.org,UniversityofNorthCarolina‐ChapelHill;http://www.ibiblio.org/pjones/

Therearesomeapplicationsandactivitiesonlinethatshowthepromiseofthesemanticweb,amongthem:TripIt,Xobni,TrueKnowledge,Wolfram|Alpha,OpenCalais,Hakia.

“Althoughthesemanticwebmaynotplayoutpreciselyasenvisioned,itisalreadyhavinganeffectandwillcontinuetodoso.Semanticapplicationsalreadymanageemailcontacts(Xobni),travelplans(TripIt),andsearchingandfinding(TrueKnowledge,Wolfram|Alpha,andmanyothers).Thepowerofthesemanticwebisthatitisusinginformationthatisalreadyembeddedinoursystemstomakeanddisplayconnectionsthatwouldtakemuchlongertosurfaceonebyone.Forinstance,TripItusessemanticapproachestointerprettravelinformation;byforwardingacollectionofconfirmationemailsfromavarietyofsourcestoasingleautomatedaddress,Iendupwithaneasy‐to‐read,integrateditineraryofallmytrips,ataskthatusedtorequiremetofind,printout,staple,andkeeptrackofnumerouspiecesofinformation.Thesemanticwebmakesthispossible,andasmoresemanticapplicationsaredevelopedandreleased,itwillbecomeeasiertokeeptrackofandusethemultitudeofinformationthateachofusdealswithonadailybasis.Thatsaid,Idon'tthinkitwillbeobvioustomostpeoplethatthesemanticwebiswhatmakesthispossible–thetechnologywillbetransparent.”–Rachel

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S.Smith,vicepresident,NMCServices,NewMediaConsortium;http://www.linkedin.com/in/ninmah

“Structuredmetadataishard.ItwouldbepossibletodowhatSirTimenvisionstoday,butitrequiresagreatdealofeffortbycontentcreators.It'sunlikelytohappenformostcontentunlesstoolsarebuilttomakeitautomaticandtransparent.SystemslikeOpenCalaisarepromising,butmanygenerationsawayfrombeingtrulyeffective.Thisisn'tsomethingIexpecttoseeby2020.”–EthanZuckerman,researchfellow,BerkmanCenterforInternetandSocietyatHarvardLawSchool,co‐founderofGlobalVoices;http://ethanzuckerman.com

“Ibelievethatby2020therewillbemechanismsforinteroperablecomputerprogramsthatwillalloweasyandinvisiblesharingofdataacrossapplicationsthatwillmakethegoalsofasemanticwebattainable.ThiswillmakeiteasierforallInternetuserstoseamlesslyoperateandcombinedocument,data,calendar,socialmedia,multimedia,andotherprograms.”–GaryKreps,chairofdepartmentofcommunications,GeorgeMasonUniversity

“Thesemanticwebishere.PaycloseattentiontoorganizationslikeHakia,forexample.We'llseechangewellbefore2020.”–JoshuaFouts,leaderofDancingInk,fosteringtheemergenceofanewglobalculturethroughvirtualworlds,adigitaldiplomacyexpert,seniorfellowatCenterfortheStudyofthePresidencyandCongress,webactivistandfoundingeditorofOnlineJournalismReview;http://www.linkedin.com/in/joshuafouts

Somepointoutthatdespitehumandifferences,thepromiseofthesemanticwebgivespeoplesignificantincentivestocooperateinbuildingit.Somesaytherearenoincentives.

“Oncepeoplestartunderstandingtheneedofsemanticweb,moreandmorewebsiteswillbebasedonsemanticconcepts,whichwillleadGoogletoreflecttheoutsidewebworldinsemanticformat.”–RudiVansnick,president,InternetSocietyofBelgium

“Forthisquestiontheanswerwillliesomewhereinbetweenthechoicesprovided.ItisclearthatthevolumeofinformationontheInternetin2010isoverwhelmingandthosewhocanfindwaysofextractingintelligencefromthisinascalablewaywillhaveanadvantage.Inthenext10yearswewillbethousandsofstartupswhowillinventpiecesofthepuzzleinmakingsenseofthedepthandbreathofcontent.Thesemanticwebwillbeapieceofthis,butbynomeansthesingleanswer.”–TomGolway,globaltechnologydirectoratThomsonReutersandformerCTOatReadyForTheNet;http://www.linkedin.com/in/readyforthenet

“There'scurrentlylittleornoincentivetocreatethesemanticweb,fromtheperspectiveofthepeoplewhoactuallyhavetodothework.Assuch,itwillfailtothrive.”–CameronPrice,CTOforMintDigital

Somemadesuggestionsaboutwhatasemanticwebshouldaspiretobe.

“Wedonothaveatruehypertextsystemandthestandardshavenotaddressedsomeofthekeyshortcomings.Weneedtwo‐waylinkagessoapersoncangoineitherdirectionforsuchlinks.Weneedcollaborativefeatureswhereausercanchooseto

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authorizethereturnlinkbeingplacedintheirwebpage.Weneedpeopletobeabletocreatemultidimensionallinkagesamongitemsandproducethemnewproductsofcreativewritingornewnonlineardocuments.Weneedthepartialopeningofcopyrightrestrictionstoallowpeopletotakefragmentsfromanywheretocreatethesenewtypesofinformationcollections.Someofthisisavailablethroughsomesharingsystemsbuttheyareoftendividedbythetypeofinformationlikepictures,video,etc.Thereisstilltoomuchfragmentationandcurrentlysocialnetworkstrytoforceapersontodoeverythingthroughagivensystemandnotallowausertodirectthingstoanyintegrationcapabilitywithalltheirinformationbehavior."–MurrayTuroff,professorofcomputerandinformationsciences,NewJerseyInstituteofTechnology;http://www.linkedin.com/pub/murray‐turoff/6/697/163

“Commonlanguages,filingsystems,andmethods(scientificmethod)definetheintellectualworldsinwhichwelive.Thisismerelyanextension.However,onthedownside,theyalsomaycircumscribethoughtasorderreplaceschaos.Thetrickisnottolosethechaosofthepastdecadeswithnon‐flexibleassociations.”–TomWolzien,chairmanofWolzienLLCMedia&CommunicationsStrategyandformerlysenioranalystwithSanfordC.Bernstein&Co.

“ThesemanticwebistheendgameoftheInternetweusetodaywhichisbutasteppingstonetosomethingmoreuseful.Itcompletestheusefulnessofhavingdevelopedamultitudeofdisparateinformationsourcesthatcanbelinkedprogrammaticallytoprovidecollectiveintelligence.”–JeffWalpole,CEO,Phase2Technology,awebapplicationdevelopmentfirm

“TheInternetwascreatedtoconnectcomputers(andthendocuments,etc)inthecaseofameltdownononenode;itwasnotcreatedforaverageusers.Wedon'treallycareaboutsitesorrememberingyetanotherplace,infactwewouldmuchprefercontenttocometousaspartofthe'Destination‐FreeWeb.’Asourinterestsandneedsshiftswewouldprefersomethingtoself‐organizecontentthatmatchesourmood.Inasimplecase–searchshouldfragmentintoInformationSearch,SocialSearch,andCommercialSearch.”–AnthonyPower,vicepresidentofinteractiveandanalyticsolutionsatStudeoandauthorof“What’sStillMissingfromWeb2.0”;http://www.studeo.com/content/anthony‐power

“Taxonomyisdestinyontheweb.By2020wewillallbetterunderstandtaggingandsearchingandwillleveragethesemanticwebtoouradvantage.Thecontinuousgamingofthesemanticsystemwillcontinuebutaspublishersandmerchantsseekmoreadvantage,thepublicwillbenefitfromincrementalspecificityinsearchandinquickaccesstotheinformationsought.”–DanielFlamberg,bloggeratiMediaConnectionsandseniorvicepresidentofinteractivemarketingatJuicePharmaAdvertising;http://www.plaxo.com/directory/profile/90196792005/fbcfdefa/Daniel/Flamberg

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AboutthePewResearchCenter’sInternet&AmericanLifeProjectThePewResearchCenter’sInternet&AmericanLifeProjectisoneofsevenprojectsthatmakeupthePewResearchCenter,anonpartisan,nonprofit“facttank”thatprovidesinformationontheissues,attitudesandtrendsshapingAmericaandtheworld.TheProjectproducesreportsexploringtheimpactoftheInternetonfamilies,communities,workandhome,dailylife,education,healthcare,andcivicandpoliticallife.TheProjectaimstobeanauthoritativesourceontheevolutionoftheInternetthroughsurveysthatexaminehowAmericansusetheInternetandhowtheiractivitiesaffecttheirlives.ThePewInternetProjecttakesnopositionsonpolicyissuesrelatedtotheInternetorothercommunicationstechnologies.Itdoesnotendorsetechnologies,industrysectors,companies,nonprofitorganizations,orindividuals.URL:http://www.pewInternet.org

AbouttheImaginingtheInternetCenteratElonUniversityTheImaginingtheInternetCenter'smissionistoexploreandprovideinsightsintoemergingnetworkinnovations,globaldevelopment,dynamics,diffusionandgovernance.Itsresearchholdsamirrortohumanity'suseof

communicationstechnologies,informspolicydevelopment,exposespotentialfuturesandprovidesahistoricrecord.Itworkstoilluminateissuesinordertoservethegreatergood,makingitsworkpublic,freeandopen.ThecenterisanetworkofElonUniversityfaculty,students,staff,alumni,advisers,andfriendsworkingtoidentify,exploreandengagewiththechallengesandopportunitiesofevolvingcommunicationsformsandissues.Theyinvestigatethetangibleandpotentialprosandconsofnew‐mediachannelsthroughactiveresearch.Amongthespectrumofissuesaddressedarepower,politics,privacy,property,augmentedandvirtualreality,control,andtherapidchangesspurredbyacceleratingtechnology.TheImaginingtheInternetCentersponsorsworkthatbringspeopletogethertosharetheirvisionsforthefutureofcommunicationsandthefutureoftheworld.URL:http://www.imaginingtheInternet.org

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Methodology

Thesurveyresultsarebasedonanon‐randomonlinesampleof895InternetexpertsandotherInternetusers,recruitedviaemailinvitation,TwitterorFacebookfromthePewResearchCenter’sInternet&AmericanLifeProjectandtheImaginingtheInternetCenteratElonUniversity.Sincethedataarebasedonanon‐randomsample,amarginoferrorcannotbecomputed,andtheresultsarenotprojectabletoanypopulationotherthantheexpertsinthissample.