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The fourth industrial revolution and digital disruption:
Prospects and challengesNisaar Mahomed
MILE Presentation Moses Mabhida26th November 2018
Then and now
The new global economy: the world since 2007
Population growth & economic development
250,000 years for civilization to
reach 1 billion people.
Now 250,000 each day.
It took a century to add the second
billion.
1 billion every 12 years.
Water 4.5 billion years ago old
The earth recycles its water
The amount of water cannot be
increased or decreased
There is no more water on our
planet today than there was millions
of years ago
Innovation, technology and GDP
Economic output doubled to $5,2
trillion by 1950
First 50 yrs of 20th C Faster rate
of economic growth than entire
previous century
100 million users
Telephone 75 Years
Instagram 2 Years
Pokemon Go 1 Month
The rapidly changing world: the pace of change
Source: socialnomics via https://twitter.com/keithweed/status/495149053114867712
Apple, Uber, Kodak
Disruption
Disruptee
mainframe computers
fixed line telephones
hotels
traditional taxis
encyclopaedia
CD player
local stores
long distance calls
cinemas/video rental
Disruptor
Personal computers
Cellular phones
Air bnb
Uber
Wikipedia/google
iPod/iTunes
eBay/Amazon
Skype
Netflix
2007:
Garmin and Tom Tom worth $38bn
iPhone changed telecom, smartphone
and computer market
The relationship between the revolutions
Mechanisation (1760-
1840) mass production
(1870-1940)
mass production and
electricity (2IR)manufacturing of
computers and
telecommunications
devices (1960-2010)
information collection, transmission and
processing capabilities of the third
revolution
The Internet of Things
By 2020
Up to 30 billion devices connected.
Economic impact of more than $14 trillion.
Connecting electronic devices that monitor,
collect or exchange data over wireless
communications network.
ensures interaction with their environment
Where industries will put practical AI to work
*AI:software that allows computers to mimic human
intelligence.
Machine learning: the process of discovering patterns in data
which are used to make predictions.
Global distribution of AI
• According to The Economist $4.2 trillion of value
creation projected to emerge over next 20 years
AI companies and start ups
• U.S. employers will spend more than $650mn
on salaries for 10,000 AI jobs in 2018.
• 22 000 AI researchers with PHDs globally
Top 20 companies in AI talent
Governments and AI
• 23 countries in 17 months have articulated plans for
AI development.
• Kenya &Tunisia represent Africa
• Will add $15.7 trillion to global economy.
IP and Patents: the war for the future
ZTE: greatest number of patents filed.
RobotsNew installations of industrial robots in 2016
Global renewable investment
The number of cities powered by more than
70% RE doubled between 2015 and 2017
Corporate buyers of RE
Currently the world’s largest corporate buyer of
renewable power, 2.6 gigawatts (2,600 MW)
Changing face of the Auto industry
4IR and the Auto industry
Apple (iOS)- Mercedes, Nissan, BMW
Android-Audi, Honda, GM
Microsoft been in autos since 1990s’.
Software = 25% of cost of building a car
EV global sales
• China’s EV market is already nearly three times that of the U.S
• 95% of those cars were sold in just 10 countries
• China remains largest market: 40% of EVs sold globally
https://www.businessinsider.com.au/the-rapid-growth-in-global-electric-vehicle-sales-in-4-charts-
2018-1
Auto: The global picture
• ICE vehicles banned: UK (2030), France (2040) and Norway (2025)
• 75% of vehicle travel in major economies will be autonomous vehicles
by 2035
• Vehicle assembly start up Local Motors (USA)-consumers design own
vehicles using CAD and 3D printing designs
• Component manufacturers use 3D printed parts for obsolete models.
• Atlantis Foundries (engine blocks) use AI to predict sub-surface
defects: reduce scrap and rework rates by 90%
Auto(nomous) Disruption
• Drivers, steering wheels,air bags or side impact bars and large
brake discs-all displaced
• Insurance industry also uncertain-liability in event of accident??
• currently 100 million sold annually-what of 2035?
South Africa
• 112 00 employees
• CSIR:1 million EVs drive 20000 kms per annum=reduce oil imports
by $580m.
Agriculture-status
2IR 41% of US labour force-agriculture
3IR this declined to 4% and by 2000 it stood at 2%
4IR: farms
Agriculture-Drones collect data based on heat emissions
Translated into optimal patterns of irrigation which command fully automated systems on the
ground
Food processing-near infrared spectroscopic analysis which provides data at different
points of the food processing value chain
4IR: farms
Food processing
Big data • Unilever-AI in recruitment• TetraPak-5000 packaging machines fitted with sensor tech-
predicts machine breakdown
robots • Nestle-use robots in packaging lines• Axiom-use robots to package finish products onto ships• Unilever-cameras and AI utilised in packaging lines
3D • Nestle-3D printing to test new packaging designs and to fix failing equipment components
blockchain • Unilever-transparency in tea supply chain/track 10 000 tea farmers in Malawi
• IBM running blockchain network in USA with Nestlé and Unilever and with Walmart in China/
• has shared records system can be used to track food products from farms through supply chains and onto retailers shelves.
• Using blockchain the average product recall can be reduced by 80%
Megatrends shaping the construction industry
Annual total annual revenues of $10 trillion
65% of next decades growth will occur in emerging countries
1% reduction in construction costs would save $100 billion annually (cancer drugs)
1/3 building costs attributed to building materials
$1 trillion needed to close the global infrastructure gap
Dubai: problems of rapid urban growth
• Irresponsible urban planning rather than global warming caused Dubai’s average temperature to increase by 2 degrees over the past 14 years.
• Buildings and roads absorb more heat than surrounding desert sand. • Skyscrapers disrupt normal wind flow.
Smart technology: smart construction?
Dubai
• world’s first functioning 3D printed office in 2016
• 25% of buildings in the Emirate will be constructed using 3D printing tech by
2030
• Komatsu developed automated bulldozers whose drones & 3D scanners relay
terrain data to bulldozer =speeds up pre-foundation work.
• Japan leading the way with regards driverless technology (2020 Olympics).
• Rio Tinto and Volvo-automated trucking to transport waste and construction
material
WinSun
• Built 10 houses per day using 3D printed components (2014).
• Egypt ordered 3D printing technology for 20 000 houses in the desert
Smart cities and smart grids
Ongoing structural shift regarding electricity’s generation, consumption and
storage.
From centralised generation to flexible generation
Rise of:
• battery storage and smart power generation.
• Rise of batteries, microgrids, smart metres
• energy management
RESOURCE USE and 4IR
ICE (20kg of copper) EV (80kgs of copper)
Coal (2kg/Kw:copper) Solar (5kg/Kw : copper)
Batteries Cobalt: 65% (DRC)Lithium:75% (Argentina, Chile and Bolivia)
Graphene • stronger than steel• Super conductor of
electricity• Computer chips,
touchscreens• and solar cells
China 65% of global production
4IR and jobs/skills
Mckinsey:50% of global economy/1.2 billion people/ $14.6 trillion wages
65% of children that started primary school in 2017 will be employed in positions that do
not currently exist.
50% of subject knowledge acquired during the first year of a four year technical degree is
outdated by the time students graduate
By 2020 more than a third of desired core skill sets will be comprised of skills that are not
considered crucial to the job today.
4IR in Africa
Ethiopian Commodity Exchange +IBM uses ioT to trace entire coffee value
chain; 5 million bags of coffee. Next is sesame seeds and haricot beans
Aeroview developed by Cape Town based Aerobotics. AI and drones identify
problem areas in crops. Harnesses infra-red imagery to map regions and
individual crop rows.
SOPHia (Morocco, Cameroon, SA) AI used to identify disease-causing
mutations and decide on effective care
Zipline (Rwanda) makes 150 daily blood deliveries to remote patients. 30
minute access. Drone airport scheduled for 2020
Android app in 6 African countries that examines for early signs of cervical
cancer.
Nigeria: App provides instant diagnosis and location of medication
mobile services generate 6.7%
of continent’s GDP ($150 billion)
SSA: 50% of world’s mobile
money platforms/500m users by
2020.
100 million people using Zoona
Kenya: $38 billion moved along
mm platforms in 2016
(Bloomberg)
4IR in Africa: smartphones and mobile money
1 million customers using Zoona every
60 days through 1600 Zoona outlets
across Zambia and Malawi
"
Scope and economic value of 4IR
Technologyimprovement
Level of impact and economic value
Energy storageLithium ion
40% decline since 2009 1.2 billion without electricity/$2 trillion global consumption of petrol and diesel
3D printing 90% lower price for home printer compared to 4 yrs
$11 trillion global GDP for 3D printing market
Renewable energy 85% price drop for PV cell per watt since 2000
$3.5 trillion global electricity consumption
Robotics 170% growth in sales of 2009-11
$2-3 trillion of major surgeries
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