“the future is your decision”

CEO Forum

brian@itreconomics.com www.itreconomics.com

“The Future is Your Decision”Presented by

Brian Beaulieu

September 2011

www.itreconomics.com

The U.S. economy remains almost comatose. The current slump already ranks as the longest period of sustained weakness since the Great Depression. Once-in-a-lifetime dislocations will take years to work out. Among them: the job drought, the debt hangover, the defense-industry contraction, the banking collapse, the real estate depression, the health-care cost explosion and the runaway federal deficit.

September 1992

3US Industrial Production to Gross Domestic ProductYear-over-year Quarter to Quarter (3/12)

-14.6%

-5.3%-3.1%

'82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14-15

3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%

3.4%3.4%

3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%

GDPUS IP

• Leading indicators pointing up• Liquidity is not an issue• Exports are up• Simulative monetary policy• Employment rising (companies right-sized)• Banks are lending • Normal seasonal rise in Retail Sales • $447 bils stimulus program

Recovery

• Europe’s financial troubles might…• China’s housing/inflation bubble could…• International banking crisis becomes…• Oil prices could break through $120 …• USD could lose all credibility causing…

Recession in 2012

6US Total Industrial Production Index

2002 = 100, S.A.

3/12 12/12

3MMA 12MMA

ITR Trends Report

'92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14-24

340R-O-C MMA

7Global Industrial Production Indices

12/12 Rates-of-Change

ITR Trends Report

'00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14-30

2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil2.9 Brazil0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan0.9 Japan4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico

4.8 Mexico

4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.8 Mexico4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US

4.9 US

4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US4.9 US8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia

8.4 SE Asia

8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia8.4 SE Asia5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe

5.9 Europe

5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe5.9 Europe

'98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14-15

US IPChina IP

US IP China

US Industrial Production to China Industrial Production12/12 Rates-of-Change

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015-30

Japan IP

US Industrial Production to Japan Industrial Production12/12 Rates-of-Change

ITR Trends Report

'82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14-12

CanadaU.S.

US Industrial Production to Canadian Industrial Production12/12 Rates-of-Change

'96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14-15

US IPIndia IP

US IP India

US Industrial Production to India Industrial Production12/12 Rates-of-Change

US, Colorado, & Rocky Mountains Annual GSP Growth Rate

'98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12-4

U.S. Colorado Rocky Mountains

Unemployment Rates

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20122

U.S. Colorado

14Colorado 4th Opportunity Index Score: 66.6

National Average: 50.9

Entrepreneur-ial

Environment

Business Costs

Workforce Quality

Demograph-ics

Local Market Conditions

Real Estate Stability

152010 Exports from Colorado to the World

Billions of USD

13.0%11.3%

23.7%336--TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT

325--CHEMICALS

212--MINERALS & ORES

333--MACHINERY, EXCEPT ELECTRICAL

322--PAPER

331--PRIMARY METAL MFG

ALL OTHER

16Example: Revenue 12MMTMonthly

SeptOct

NovDec

10101010

3MMT = 4.63

JanFeb

111111

3MMT = 5.14

AprMayJune

111111

3MMT = 4.98

JulyAug

111111

3MMT = 4.223MMT = 3.953MMT = 4.24

12MMT = 18.7012MMT = 18.97

12MMT = 17.54

RATE-OF-CHANGE

ACTUAL MONTHLY DATA AS OF 8/11ACTUAL MONTHLY DATA AS OF 8/10

3-MOS MOVING TOTAL (3MMT) AS OF 8/113-MOS MOVING TOTAL (3MMT) AS OF 8/10

ANNUAL MOVING TOTAL (12MMT) AS OF 8/11ANNUAL MOVING TOTAL (12MMT) AS OF 8/10

= 1/12

= 3/12

= 12/12

'98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14-40

R-O-C MMT3/12

Colorado Construction Industry EmploymentThousands of Units

'98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14-40

-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-4.9-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6

-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6-5.6

R-O-C MMT3/12

3MMT12MMT

Denver Construction Industry EmploymentThousands of Units

20Employment – Private SectorAnnual Data Trend

'92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '1485

Employment Mils of Jobs

ITR Trends Report

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019-2000

236128

-378 -413-318-248-161

-1552-1449

-939 -938-955-925-988-1013-1031-1145

OMB’s 10-Year Deficit Projections(Baseline of Current Policy)

Billions of Dollars

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015-4.0

CPIUA 12/12UNEMP 12MMA

CPIUA UNEMP

Unemployment Rate to Consumer Price IndexData Trends to Rates-of-Change

US Industrial Production Index2007 = 100

Forecast Through December 2012Annual Average Index

26Consumer Loan Delinquency Rates3MMA and 12MMA

'90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14-2

3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%

3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%

3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%

3MMA12MMA

27Delinquency Rates for C&I Loans3/12 & 12/12 Rates-of-Change

'90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14-80

-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%

-41.0%

-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-41.0%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%

-32.8%

-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%-32.8%

3/1212/12

28Commercial & Industrial Loans at Commercial BanksRates-of-Change

'82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14-20

3/1212/12

29Corporate Profits – 1st QuarterBillions of $

Transportation and warehousing

Utilities

Wholesale trade

Information

Retail trade

Manufacturing

Financial

$0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 $350 $400

$103.9

$141.0

$141.6

$112.9

$129.1

$250.4

$362.7

$123.3

$124.0

$280.6

$378.4

2011 (1Q SAAR)

Source: BEA

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015-15

US IPFabricated Metals

US IP Metals

US Industrial Production to Fabricated Metal Products Production12/12 Rates-of-Change

ITR Trends Report

31US Industrial Production to Plastics Products Production12/12 Rates-of-Change

'94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14-18

US IPPlastics

US IP Plastics

ITR Trends Report

'82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14-16

US IPInvestment

US IP Investment

US Industrial Production to Equipment & Software Investment12/12 Rates-of-Change

ITR Trends Report

'92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14-12

US IPSales

Retail Sales for Eating Places to US Industrial Production12/12 Rates-of-Change

ITR Trends Report

'82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14-12

US IPHotel & Motel Expenditures

US IP Expenditures

US Industrial Production to Hotel & Motel Expenditures12/12 Rates-of-Change

35Trends 10

Housing

Foreign

New Orders

Retail

Soft Landing

Financial

Production

Wholesale Trade

Prices

Medical

NonresidentialConstruction

Hard Landing

ITR Trends Report

36Nondefense Capital Goods New Orders w/o AircraftBillions of $

'92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14-80

10.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.214.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.9

14.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.914.9

$770.7

R-O-C MMT

Oct '09

Nov '09

Jul '08

Feb '113/12 12/12

ITR Trends Report

37Ratio of Inventories to New OrdersRaw Data

'06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '140.8

Nov '07

Feb '09

'94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14-25

6.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.2

6.26.2

6.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.26.22.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.6

2.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.62.6

R-O-C MMA

Dec '09

Oct '09

Jul '95

Nov '10

M2 Money SupplyTrillions of 82$

3MMA12MMA

ITR Trends Report

39Mortgage Rates to Federal FundsRaw Data

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015-2

Mortgage RatesFederal Funds

40Crude Oil Futures PricesLight & Sweet $ per Barrel

'92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14-300

23.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.6

23.623.6

23.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.623.694.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.1

94.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.194.121.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.8

21.821.8

21.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.821.8

R-O-C MMA

Sep '09

Aug '08

Sep '09

Sep '08

3/12 12/12

12MMA 3MMA

ITR Trends Report

'80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '140

Short-Term Interest RatesLong-Term Bonds

Short-Term Interest Rates to US Gov’t Long-Term Bond YieldsRaw Data Trends

42US Industrial Production to Corporate Bond Prices12/12 Rates-of-Change

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015-15

US IPCorporate Bonds

US IP Bonds

ITR Trends Report

43US Leading Indicator1996 = 100

'94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14-24

R-O-C MMA

Jun '09

Apr '09

Aug '07

Oct '103/12

3MMA12MMA

ITR Trends Report

44Purchasing Managers Index to US Industrial Production12/12 Rate-of-Change

'92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14-15

US IPPurchasing Index

US IP Purchasing

45Stock Prices IndexS&P 500, 1941-43 = 10

'94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14-90

20.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.4

20.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.420.40.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

1270.2

R-O-C MMA

Apr '11

Oct '10

Sep '09

Dec '07

3/12 12/12

ITR Trends Report

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 20150

3MMA12MMA

Stock Prices IndexData Trends

47Retail Sales Excluding AutomobilesTrillions of 82-84$

'94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14-21

0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.01.20.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.02.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

$2.094

R-O-C MMT

Feb '11

Jul '09

Jan '10

Nov '07

3/1212/12

3MMT 12MMT

ITR Trends Report

48Personal SavingsBillions of $, Annual Data Trend

'80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '140

'94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14-15

Building DealersRetail Sales

Retailers Sales

Retail Sales Excluding Autos toBuilding Materials & Supplies Dealers

'82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14-12

Education

Retail Sales

Education Sales

Education Expenditures to Retail Sales excluding Autos12/12 Rates-of-Change

51Housing StartsMillions of Units

'94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14-90

5.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.0-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2-3.2

R-O-C MMT

Mar '06

Nov '10

Sep '09

Dec '09

3MMA 12MMT

ITR Trends Report

52Existing Home SalesMillions of Units

'94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14-40

9.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.1

9.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.19.1-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5

-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5

R-O-C MMT

3/12 12/12

3MMT12MMT

53Building Permits

'97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14-60

U.S. Colorado

'98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14-200

44.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.2

44.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.244.217.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.917.9

12.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.1

12.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.112.1

R-O-C MMT

3/12 12/12

3MMT12MMT

Colorado Building PermitsThousands of Units

'97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14-100

5.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.25.2-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1-7.1

4.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.0

R-O-C MMT

3MMT12MMT

Denver Building PermitsThousands of Units

56US to Denver Median Home Sale Prices

Annual Data Trends

'02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14140

$231.2

$169.8 US Median PriceDenver Median Price

US Denver

57Colorado Housing Price Index

Year over Year % Change

'78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12-5

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 201535

Index Construction

US Industrial Production to Non-Residential ConstructionData Trends

'96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14-300

-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.5-35.512.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.912.9

1.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.0

1.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.0

R-O-C MMT

3MMT12MMT

Colorado – Total Value of Commercial ConstructionBillions of $

'80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '145

PublicPrivate

Public Private

Public & Private Educational Buildings ConstructionData Trends

61Company L to US Industrial Production

'94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14-30

SalesUS Production

Sales US IP

Four Phases

B BC C

Expansion

Bankrupt

ITR Trends Report

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

$1,800

$2,000

GoldCopper

Gold Prices to Copper Futures PricesRaw Data

Managing Inflationary Pressures• Phase B… raise prices (as justified) • Consider real cost of living vs. nominal CPI• Highlight quality, content, service ~ competitive advantage• Borrow now – fixed as long as possible

o Inflation favors debtorso Purchase land/property – leasing rises with inflationo Build in efficiencies for long-term cost savings

• Lower fixed costs ~ increase variable costs for increased flexibility• Re-assess domestic sources (inflation will be imported)• Rigorous cost controls – hire the best accountant/CFO• R & D ~ substitute products and materials• Move liquid assets off shore• Hire now and/or lock in labor rates• Select price indices that magnify inflation negotiating with customers• Select price indices that minimize inflation negotiating with vendors

o Get Vendors to agree to longer-term price commitments• Sell overseas

Phase Late A – Recovery

1. Positive leadership modeling (culture turns to behavior)

2. Establish goals: tactical goals which lead to strategic achievement

3. Develop a system for measurement and accountability re:#2

4. Align compensation plans with #2 and #3

5. Be keenly aware of the BE (Break Even) point and check it regularly

6. Judiciously expand credit

7. Check distributions systems for readiness to accommodate

increased activity

8. Review and uncover competitive advantages

9. Invest in customer market research (know what they value)

10. Improve efficiencies with investment in technology and software

Phase Management ObjectivesTM:

ITR Trends Report

Phase Late A – Recovery

Part 211. Start to phase out marginal opportunities

12. Add sales staff

13. Build inventories (consider lead time and turn rate)

14. Introduce new product lines

15. Determine capital equipment needs and place orders

16. Begin advertising and sales promotions

17. Hire "top" people

18. Implement plans for facilities expansion

19. Implement training programs

ITR Trends Report

Phase Early B – Growth1. Accelerate training

2. Check the process flow for possible future bottlenecks

3. Continue to build inventory

4. Increase prices

5. Consider outside manufacturing sources if internal

pressures becoming tight

6. Find the answer to “What next?”

7. Open distribution centers

8. Use improved cash flow to improve corporate governance

9. Use cash to create new competitive advantages

10. Watch your debt-to-equity ratio and ROI

11. Maintain/pursue quality: don’t let complacency set in

ITR Trends Report

Phase Late B Early C – Prosperity

1. Stay in stock on A items, be careful with C items

2. Consider selling the business in a climate of maximum “goodwill”

3. Penetrate new selected accounts

4. Develop plan for lower activity in traditional, mature markets

5. Freeze all expansion plans (unless related to “what is next”)

6. Spin off undesirable operations

7. Consider taking on subcontract work if the backside of the cycle

looks recessionary

8. Stay realistic – beware of linear budgets

9. Begin missionary efforts into new markets

10. Communicate competitive advantages to maintain margins

ITR Trends Report

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015-12

ExpendituresOrders

Expenditures Orders

Reagan Bush Clinton BushCarter Obama

National Defense Expenditures to Defense Capital Goods N.O.12/12 Rates-of-Change

EnergyGreenWaterCanada/ExportsHigher EducationHealth Care

Practices

FoodPetsFuneral ServicesAlcoholSecurityLegal Services

(Diversified)

Find a way to do business in the “counter-cyclical” or largely unaffected areas:

71Net Migration

72Net Migration – Top 15

UT AL CA VA NV OR TNCO SC

Thousands

US Census Bureau, Annual Population Estimates, Net Migration 1 July 2008 - 1 July 2009

73Net Migration – Bottom 15

ID NJMD

RI AK VT ND NEWI MS NH HI

Thousands

US Census Bureau, Annual Population Estimates, Net Migration 1 July 2008 - 1 July 2009

USA ~ 300 million grows to 400 – 500 millionIndiaIndonesiaAustraliaSpainMexicoBrazil

Demographics

Winning Demographics

Negative DemographicsChinaEuropeJapanRussia (13% want to leave)

Source: United Nations

8.75.3

2.52.4

2.32.2 2.0 1.7 1.6

United States

JapanGermany

FranceUnited Kingdom

Brazil

Canada

Russia

SpainAustralia

Mexico

South Korea

Source: IMF

World GDP, Bils of US $, Current Prices Percent of World GDP

To learn how incorporating economic data into your planning process can

increase your profitability,please contact

kristen@itreconomics.com603-796-2500

Clients and Subscribers may call at any time to

ask questions.

Be sure to tune in to “Make Your Move” with Alan & Brian Beaulieu

Mondays at 4 PM Eastern Time on the VoiceAmerica Business Channel

Listen live at www.voiceamerica.com

78Total U.S. Public Debt(% of GDP)

120.0%

“the future is your decision”

annual moving total

changeitr trends

31212123mma12mmaitr

change itr trends

defenseindustry contraction

changeactual monthly

banking collapse

great depression

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