the future isn’t what it used to be - hr green · 2 apwa orlando pwx the future isn’t what it...

MARKET

APWA Orlando PWX – August 17,2017

The Future Isn’t What itUsed to Be

2

APWA Orlando PWX

The Future Isn’t What It Used to Be

GWentz@HRGreen.com

George Wentz, PEPrincipal/Vice President

Dave Zelenok, PEGovernment Services Manager

DZelenok@HRGreen.com

3

APWA Orlando PWX

4

APWA Orlando PWX

“Urban Fabric” – Neighborhoods Impact on Infrastructure Emerging technologies – Fiber Optics vs. Municipal Broadband Smart Cities - Street lights, Signals, Infrastructure

The Real Impact of Driverless Cars Neighborhoods – parking – congestion – plans Reliance on Telecommunications & Technology

What can you do today to position for the future?>>>50 things you never saw coming in 50 minutes…

Today’s Discussion – A Crisis of Innovation

5

APWA Orlando PWX

The Topic: Infrastructure

• The Goal: Prompt your thinking out of the norm.

• So – what’s changing?• Emerging Global Trends

6

APWA Orlando PWX

Urban Centers Replacing Fortress Malls…12% of ALL retail is now online…

Old Now

7

APWA Orlando PWX

The Future will be Mobile and Shared…

The “Uberization” of the world…

8

APWA Orlando PWX

Libraries are back!• Clothing• Seeds (Nashville)• Chickens• Boats, bikes, skis• Recreation/athletic

equipment• Musical instruments

… “Uberizing,” and, many still loan BOOKS

9

APWA Orlando PWX

“Next Generation” of Neighborhood Development: Co-Housing

10

APWA Orlando PWX

Co-HousingYou’re invited to:- drive on the sidewalks (?)- or play in the streets (?)

Note: “Common House”(meetings… guests…)

…and have supper together• Approximately

160 existing projects

• 130+ Co-Housing Projects under development

12

APWA Orlando PWXSource: Wisconsin DOT

U-Turn Intersections: RCUT…say goodbye to left turns…

• Intersections can be either signalized (“Superstreet), or

• Unsignalized (“J-Turn”)

• Telecommunications: Crucial!

13

APWA Orlando PWX

Emerging Trends – Experiential Design “XD”

Extra Attention on “Moments of Engagement”

14

APWA Orlando PWX

Emerging Trends – Experiential Design “XD”

Design all services, journeys and interactions based on visitors’ “Touchpoints”

15

APWA Orlando PWX

Emerging Trends – Experiential Design “XD” Enhancing and simplifying visitor

“experience” such as: Parking Transit Wayfinding Visitor Information

Often Managed through centralized, or “Smart” “Dashboards”

Smart Phones, Kiosks, Variable Message Signs, Info Centers, etc.

16

APWA Orlando PWX

Emerging Trends – Sensors & DashboardsCrowd Sourcing – “WAZE” App (Google owns)Data Sources Include:• In Pavement• Bluetooth – O & D• Overhead / Microwave: DOT• Cell Phones• Users (Citizen Tweets)• FIRST: City-Reported: WAZE

Colorado Springs –• Re-routing around daily cone

zones

17

APWA Orlando PWX

Data Sources Include:• Mobile Weather: Windshields & License Plates

report snow, temps and more• Next: Self-reporting potholes (no kidding)• Friction Measurements TOP priority

Emerging Trends – Mobile Weather Sensors

Thanks: Vince Jordan, Fathym/Weather Cloud

18

APWA Orlando PWX

Emerging Trends – SMART ParkingWhere’s my spot?

Thanks: Stephen Evans, INDECT

19

APWA Orlando PWX

Personal Rapid Transit (PRT)

• Driverless vehicles on a guideway

• One to four seated passengers plus luggage

• Direct origin to destination service – no stops

• On demand – not scheduled, very short headways

20

APWA Orlando PWX

Personal Rapid Transit (PRT)

Now – Driver Assisted Vehicles Next – Autonomous Vehicles

21

APWA Orlando PWX

What’s Next?Spaceships?Flying Saucers?…you’ll never guess…

Personal Rapid Transit (PRT)

22

APWA Orlando PWX

High-Tech Power Systems 7 miles, 22 mph,

15 lbs Remember that last

½ mile problem? Add it to anything $500+ - “Hyperlocal

transportation”

Emerging Global Trends

23

APWA Orlando PWX

Personal Micro Transportation

24

APWA Orlando PWX

Personal Micro Transportation

New Terms:• MicroTransit• Last ½ Mile –

done.

25

APWA Orlando PWX

Autonomous – Driverless – Self-DrivingCrucial will be: Totally Managed Systems

26

APWA Orlando PWX

So What’s the Big Deal?

• Transit – 5% (maybe)• Carpooling – 5% (maybe)• Telecommuting – 10-20%

(maybe)• Driverless Capacity –

300% (yes)

27

APWA Orlando PWX

So What’s the Big Deal?

Scary:• 10% Driverless – 2025• 80% Driverless – 2040*

What about our 2040 plans? How about 2030?

94% of COGs are ignoringthese facts

* DeLoitte

28

APWA Orlando PWX

Rapid Innovation – Has this Ever Happened Before?

Horseless Carriage Cars and Streetcars

No horse

Complete modal transformation: 12 yearsInfrastructure: Catching up 100 years

29

APWA Orlando PWX

Rapid Innovation – Has this Ever Happened Before?

• Cell Phones have become SMART phones

• Smart phone 10th

Anniversary – June 2017

30

APWA Orlando PWX

Rapid Innovation – Are Just Roads Affected?• Quick “deep dive:” Parking

Garages ~ 50% increase in capacity

• Q: Who wants to pay for parking when you can send your car to run an errand for you:

• OR - Park itself in the neighborhood

• OR - Go for a joyride• Does this CLOG the

FREEWAY(?)

31

APWA Orlando PWX

Final Thoughts – Driverless CarsWith autonomous cars –

Send your car home instead of paying for parking!

Are smart cars good for drunk drivers?

What about city revenue drops from no speeding tickets?

Might this be the end of mass transit as we know it?

Highways essentially become “train tracks” - BRT’s

With reduced accidents – Is there a reduced need for

ambulances, fire stations? What else don’t we know? Will driving become a distraction

for texting?

32

APWA Orlando PWX

Emerging Global Trends – Smart Cities

Interconnecting everything: Streetlights, Utilities, Energy Traffic Signals, Parking,

Roads Transit, People, Logistic

Systems Sensors: Fire, Wearables,

Cameras, DronesTechnology is the enablerTelecom is the common threadThe “Uberization” of the world

33

APWA Orlando PWX

Emerging Global Trends – Big Data

Looking at Virtually Everything… and everything virtually “BIG DATA”Predicting Traffic Jams -Adjusting signals dynamically and parametrically – just 30 minutes in the future by reading utility meters and Bluetooth Devices(?)

34

APWA Orlando PWX

Emerging Global Trends – IoT

Bricks vs “Clicks” Online sales

Halal Economy New Banking Systems

Medical trends Virtual Doctors – “Doc

in a Box” Diagnosis via computer

“IoT – Internet of Things” Everything is online (yes) But now – Every THING is

on line

35

APWA Orlando PWX

Integrated Community Needs/Goals

36

APWA Orlando PWX

New Thinking – So How do I Get There

• Repurposing infrastructure• Bits, Bytes, & Gigabites

• Fiber for your city – Yes! • Broadband – Maybe?

37

APWA Orlando PWX

Wireless, coax, copper wires and fiber Coax & wire systems: ~ 20-40 mbps 1 fiber strand: 1,000+ mbps (virtually “unlimited”) 2003: a few traffic signals on one strand; now ~ 5,000

households on one strand 500+ Cities are now investing in broadband Santa Monica, Longmont, Austin and more! 500 Smart Cities are Investing

Technology AdvancementsDo your cities have the technology?Are you doing all you can?

38

APWA Orlando PWX

Telecom 101: Terminology & TechnologyAre you positioning your city for the future?2015: FCC redefined “Broadband:” 25 down & 3 up• About half of us don’t have “broadband” today

(http://www.speedtest.net/) Gigabit Cities• Approximately 100 including Austin, K.C., Chattanooga, and

Santa Monica1,000 Down and 1,000 Up• 30x the speed• Only $50-$70/month• Longmont: 20,000 customers x $50 = $1MM/month

39

APWA Orlando PWX

Street Lighting - Summary

LEDs: reduce power expenses by 50%+, but – power often < 20% of total expensesCities now municipalizing lighting

Paying separately for energy Up-front capital and conversion costs R.O.I.s ~ 5-10 years

Millions in cost savings possible Re-purposing street lights: Conduit More

Valuable Traffic signals, utilities and public

broadband

40

APWA Orlando PWX

Vail: Street Lighting & Free Wi-Fi

“5G” won’t exist for 10+ years• Requiring

thousands of transmitters

• Probably: Street light based

• Smart City & Emerging Technologies

41

APWA Orlando PWX

Community Fiber – You ARE Already Well Positioned!• Plenty of existing public fiber

• SCADA - Utility Control Systems • Intelligent Transportation Systems• AMR/AMI - Automatic Meter Reading• Street Lights• Schools, hospitals, public safety

• Benefit• Focus on building infrastructure• Low cost entry point - “piggybacking”

• How• Develop “Fiber Friendly Policies”• Innovative Permitting, IGA’s and P3’s• Grant & Other funding sources

42

APWA Orlando PWX

Business Models – “White Box”• Public Financed: Fiber & Wireless

Infrastructure/ Electronics• Private Sector – Service Only “P3”• Competition / Choice Increases (?)• So - $9.99: ISP, $20 Fiber

infrastructure = $29.99! 100 Megs via FIBER for ONLY

$29.99 per month?• Challenges: “Own the Box &

Customer” Model• Intriguing, Cutting Edge, Worth

Watching Publ

ic

New: “Point, Click, Subscribe” Model

43

APWA Orlando PWX

Telecommunications & Infrastructure:1 – the SINGLE common thread2 – Really Lacking Today3- Under your government’s control4 – Cities can do TODAY5- Low Cost, High ImpactTelecom & Infrastructure : CRUCIAL!

So – Smart Cities are Inevitable What Can I do TODAY?

44

APWA Orlando PWX

Update City-only Fiber Asset Management Identify all fiber-related assets:

GIS layers, records, conduits, strands, agreements, etc. Look for abandoned infrastructure (but - valves)

Estimate excess capacity and capabilities Explore telecom cost reductions by interconnecting city

facilities Develop partnering agreements - other governments Create strategic plan & agree on courses of action Explore street cut & pavement degradation fee

exemptions

How do you get there? 3 Step Program: SHORT TERM

45

APWA Orlando PWX

Update City-only Fiber Asset Management Identify all fiber-related assets:

GIS layers, records, conduits, strands, agreements, etc. Look for abandoned infrastructure (but - valves)

Estimate excess capacity and capabilities Explore telecom cost reductions by interconnecting city

facilities Develop partnering agreements - other governments Create strategic plan & agree on courses of action Explore street cut & pavement degradation fee

exemptions

How do you get there? 3 Step Program: SHORT TERM

46

APWA Orlando PWX

• Develop:• Pro-fiber policies • Co-location, Public-Private Partnerships• Joint-Build, Piggyback, Dig-once policies• Co-location incentives/requirements/ordinances• Fee reductions, individual agreements• COG /DOT grants to support fiber construction

• Review Fiber Program Management

• Appoint: cross-functional staff “Fiber team” –• Public Works, Streets, Traffic, Engineering, IT, Utilities

• Analyze Street Cut Permit System & Degradation

How do you get there? 3 Step Program: MID TERM

47

APWA Orlando PWX

• Develop:• Pro-fiber policies • Co-location, Public-Private Partnerships• Joint-Build, Piggyback, Dig-once policies• Co-location incentives/requirements/ordinances• Fee reductions, individual agreements• COG /DOT grants to support fiber construction

• Review Fiber Program Management

• Appoint: cross-functional staff “Fiber team” –• Public Works, Streets, Traffic, Engineering, IT, Utilities

• Analyze Street Cut Permit System & Degradation

How do you get there? 3 Step Program: MID TERM

48

APWA Orlando PWX

•Facilitate private sector competition and consumer choice •Exploring making some public assets available to private sector•Encourage internet-based economic development, job creation, new business start-ups and entrepreneurs•Encourage the private sector to investments •Franchise Agreements•Encourage new private sector providers •Facilitate access in public places•Monetize access to connectivity assets•Consider Legal Exemption, Analysis of Alternatives, gig-city

How do you get there? 3 Step Program: LONG TERM

49

APWA Orlando PWX

•Facilitate private sector competition and consumer choice •Exploring making some public assets available to private sector•Encourage internet-based economic development, job creation, new business start-ups and entrepreneurs•Encourage the private sector to investments •Franchise Agreements•Encourage new private sector providers •Facilitate access in public places•Monetize access to connectivity assets•Consider Legal Exemption, Analysis of Alternatives, gig-city

How do you get there? 3 Step Program: LONG TERM

The future USED to be linearoLook for disruptive technologies –oThey will lead you to some chaos

– AND opportunity!

50

APWA Orlando PWX

Final Thoughts – Did we cover everything?

51

APWA Orlando PWX

As the saying goes, the future is now!

Technologies that seemed futuristic to the average person 5-10 years ago are already part of everyone’s work and personal experience.

Is your agency currently planning for or implementing any of these strategies?

• Developing infrastructure to support autonomous cars

• Repurposing underused utility and traffic signal infrastructure

• Providing municipal broadband services

• Adopting sensor technologies

• Reducing congestion and improving safety

• Planning for how the shared economy for cars, bikes, and housing will impact future infrastructure needs

Final Thoughts – Did we cover everything?

The FUTURE is –Not what it “used to be”PS - It arrives tomorrow!

Q: How’s your schedule?

MARKET

APWA Orlando PWX – Thank you

The Future Isn’t What itUsed to Be