the future of media (gerd leonhard)

★ twitter.com/gleonhard

★www.mediafuturist.com

★www.music20thebook.com

★www.gerdtube.com & .net

The Future of MediaDigital media business and broadcasting -

opportunities, trends and scenarios

The challenge: New Models!

Was Is 2 years 5 years

Content Consumption (all)Revenue PotentialSuccess with Traditional Content Models

The crisis of the Content Business

•Mere copies of content are de-facto ‘free’• The Internet is a giant copy machine - and it’s rapidly

growing in size and reach (and now: mobile!)• Selling copies is a rapidly declining business model

(Music, DVDs, Magazines, Newspapers...)• Broadband culture drives further commodization•What used to be paid for is now often free•Digital revenues are not nearly enough to make up for

the loss of physical sales (1:5 ratio!)• Developing countries have no pay-by-unit tradition

But this is not about technology...

Emerging cultural practicesNew business models

The Age of Collaboration

The Future: connecting the users is the key to success

Copy Economy

Access / Usage / Sharing

Economy

All of a sudden

MEDIA &

ENTER-TAIN-MENT

COMMU-

NICATION &

TELE-COM

ADVER-TISING

CONTENTSEARCH

Source: IBM Institute for Business Value Study

Huge potential - once licensing issues are

solved

Bundles and FlatRates will drive this

MUCH bigger potential (imho)

Despite all the current gloom & fear:

The new Content Economy: the User is a major force

Starting in 2009:•Total convergence of Telecom & Web Layers•Deep collaboration becomes the KEY requirement for creating new business opps

•Over-the top layers (search, social media...) will come down, telecoms will move up!

2010: ‘Telecom’ and Media = TeleMedia

Data Pipe

Content Pipe

Experience PlatformService Pipe

Media will follow the switch from Closed to Open

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Was Is Soon The Future

Value Trends (by Gerd Leonhard)

Value of ‘a Copy’ Value of CONTEXTValue of Meta-Content Value of ExperiencesValue of Packaging

Value of ‘a Copy’

Value of ContextValue of Experience

Value of Meta-ContentValue of Packaging

The Age of Collaboration:

Egosystem becomes

Ecosystem

Digital Content Trends

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

2008 2009 2010 2012 2015

Percentage of Revenues from Digital Services

Music Video Games Books Mags & Print

Source: The Standard

TOTAL Mobility EverywhereCONSTANT Peering and Connecting

DEEP Oceans of Content & Information

•Straight to Digital Content•Straight to Bundled Access•Straight to Mobile•Straight to next-gen Advertising

Remixed and User-made Content: 50% of consumption by 2015?

The Future of Content: Copy $ down, Attention $$ up

0

2.5

5.0

7.5

10.0

Was Is Soon Near Future Mid-term Future

Copy Based Revenues Attention Based Revenues

$3 per app to do what people would do for free,

anyway: listen to their music A great alternative to

getting Radio-Play (i.e. NetPlay)

A great way to sell concert tickets and offer other

location-based services A direct line of

communication - from band to fan - is worth Gold

This is where Content resides now...

The Future of Content is in

the Cloud and the

Crowd

•Collaborative Revenue Models

•The joint development of New Generatives based on Open Access

Media $$$: no longer about Distribution

A good example of how not to do this...

Listening, Reading or Watching =

Keeping, Copying & Sharing

‘Free’

‘Free’

Content on the Internet will be licensed like we license Radio & TV, today - starting with Music

•Online access = content access•Music access = payment included

•Create a new ecosystem on-top!

Permission, accounting and... compensating

The Printing Press brought us

CopyrightThe Internet brings

us Usage-Rights

Google & Free Music in China•Free / Feels Like Free Music for China! •Unlimited, unprotected downloads•Paid with Attention, $-ized via Ads• In China, little ‘cannibalization’ concerns•Google is willing to ‘lubricate’• Industry willing because: China is ‘lost’ for

traditional Copyright

New Data Economy

New Content

Economy

Next Generation ‘Advertising’

In this world, Permission, Attention and Trust leads to Content’s Remuneration

Questioning assumptions

So should we control what People do online in order to protect a traditional business model?

‘New Money’ Examples

Social Media is becoming... CRM!

Advertising...?

The new Generatives of Contentinfluenced by Kevin Kelly, Chris Anderson, Don Tapscott, Yochai Benkler...

T r u s tImmediacy

IndividualizationPackagingSelection / Filtering

ConvenienceConversation

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Was Is Soon The Future

Attention, Choice & Curation Trends (Gerd Leonhard)

Average Available Time Available Choices Average Available Attention

Example: the difference between

iStockphoto photos are purchased because of:• Much better metadata.• Better findability.• Faster service.• Low & attractive price-points

New Generatives and The Future of Television

The TV experience is becoming unified across all screens

What’s new about that?•Your own, unique selection of add-ons, widgets and applications on all platforms

•This TV knows who you are!

And how will we experience all this?

...the Output (i.e. publish, re-mix, co-create, life-stream...)the Input (i.e. remuneration in cash, attention, reputation...)... the Thruput (i.e. usage data, meta content, attention trails >> New Data Economics)

The Sharing Economy Logic

Welcome to the Culture of Collaboration•Collaborative value creation: new $$$ together

•Make Money around the content

•Compensation not Control

‘Free’ gets my Attention...

Merit and Trust gets my Money.

Please talk back★ email me at gerd@mediafuturist.com★ twitter.com/gleonhard★ facebook: gleonhard★ more presentations at

www.mediafuturist.com

Thanks for listening!