the june 2013 alberta catastrophic flooding: water vapor transport … · 2015-11-26 · the june...

The June 2013 Alberta Catastrophic Flooding: Water vapor transport analysis by WRF simulation

Yanping Li1, Kit Sezto2, Ron Stewart3, Julie Theriault4, Xuebin Zhang2, Bob Kochtubajda5, Sudesh Boodoo6, Ron Goodson5, Anthony Liu5

1School of Environment and Sustainability, University of Saskatchewan 2Climate Data and Analysis, Environment Canada, Toronto3Dept of Environment and Geography, University of Manitoba4Dept of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Université du Québec à Montréal5Environment Canada, Edmonton6Environment Canada, King City

WRF simulation

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WRF setup

• Initial and Boundary ConditionNCEP reanalysis with 1 degree resolution every 6 hours.

• Regional domainDomain-1, Domain-2

• ResolutionD1: 3km, D2: 27km

• PhysicsLongwave Radiation scheme (=1): RRTM (Rapid Radiative Transfer Model) scheme. Shortwave Radiation scheme (= 2): Goddard shortwave. Surface Layer (=2): Eta similarity. Planetary Boundary layer (=2): Mellor-Yamada-Janjic scheme. Cumulus Parameterization (=2 for D2, none for D1): Betts-Miller-Janjic scheme.

Microphysics (=6): WRF Single-Moment 6-class scheme. • Land Surface: Noah /CLM /RUC.

D1D2

WRF simulation vs Station Obs

WRF CaPA

Synoptic Preconditions

L L

200hPa 500hPa

L

H

700hPa 850hPa

Lateral Water Vapor flux

Water Budget

Water Vapor Source

HYSPLIT - Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Model

(t0 – 1) day (t0 – 1) ~ (t0 – 3) day

Water Vapor Source HYSPLIT t0 = June 20, 00 UTC

(t0 – 5) ~ (t0 – 7) day(t0 – 3) ~ (t0 – 5) day

Water Vapor Source HYSPLIT t0 = June 20, 00 UTC

t0 ~ (t0 – 7) day

Water Vapor Source HYSPLIT t0 = June 20, 00 UTC

US Prairie 31%, Western US 27%, Canada Prairie 17%, Rest of Canada 20%, Pacific: 5%

t0 ~ (t0 – 7) day

Summary for June 2013 Alberta Flooding event

• Rainfall structure and evolution play a critical role: large-scale dynamics, especially in settings with strong moisture convergence, determine flood properties.

• A reduction in mountain elevation decreases maximum precipitation significantly over the mountains and foothills, indicating that heavy precipitation was mainly contributed by the orographic lifting of the mountains.

• Tracing back the source of the water vapor using back trajectory analysis, it seems that the precipitable water over the flooding region actually came from Canadian Prairies and US Great Plain for this event.

Li Y., K. Szeto, R. Stewart, J. Theriault, L. Chen, B. Kochtubajda, A. Liu, S. Boodoo, R. Goodson, C. Mooney, 2015: A numerical study of the June 2013 flood-producing extreme rainstorm over southern Alberta. Journal of Hydrometeorology, submitted

Liu A., C. Mooney, K. Szeto, J. M. Thériault, B. Kochtubajda, R.E. Stewart, S. Boodoo, R. Goodson, Y. Li, J. Pomeroy, 2015: The June 2013 Alberta Catastrophic Flooding Event: Part 1 – Large scale features, Hydrological Process, submitted

Kochtubajda B., R. E. Stewart, S. Boodoo, J. M. Thériault, Y. Li, A. Liu, C. Mooney, R. Goodson, K. Szeto, 2015: The June 2013 Alberta Catastrophic Flooding Event – Part 2: Fine-scale precipitation and associated features. Hydrological Process, submitted

May-June 2015 Canadian Prairies droughtYanping Li1, Z. Li 2, A. Manson2

1Global Institute for Water Security, University of Saskatchewan1Dept of Physics, University of Saskatchewan

May-June 2015 Canadian Prairies drought

May-June 2015 Canadian Prairies drought

Li Z.*, Y. Li, A. Manson, 2015: The cause of the drought over Canadian Prairie in the summer of 2015, Environmental Research Letter, submitted

Prairies drought in May-June 2015:The intraseasonal variability of tropical convections such as the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is a hidden factor behind El Nino in determining summer precipitation anomaly over the Prairies.

In the El Nino year, the relatively warmer SST near North America's west coast induced a persistent upper-level ridge.

When the tropical convection around the MJO 4 index regions (~140oE) became abnormally strong, Rossby wave trains originated from the western Pacific, compounding the El Nino forcing of the ridge over western Canada, hence favoring a negative precipitation anomaly in the Prairies.

May-June 2015 Canadian Prairies drought