the kamloops future forest strategy project
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The Kamloops The Kamloops Future Forest Strategy ProjectFuture Forest Strategy Project
An Adaptation StrategyAn Adaptation StrategyFor Climate ChangeFor Climate Change
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The Kamloops Future Forest Strategy Team… 2
Overview of the Kamloops TSA:
1. Four Major Licensees managing Approximately 2.7 million hectares.
2. Annual allowable timber harvest
– 2.7 million cubic metres
– Currently 4.3 million cubic metres to deal with pine beetle.
3. High degree of topographic and ecological diversity.
Barriere
Clearwater
Blue River
Cache Creek
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GOAL of the KFFS…
To Rationalize expectations and direction for future forest management…
…in the context of expected impacts of climate change.
And hopefully avoid some surprises
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Objectives of the KFFS
1. Understand potential climate change impacts on management values.
2. Design adaptive actions for:
– Tree species for reforestation
– Harvesting priorities
– Other forest treatments
3. Design a vision for future forest conditions
– to sustain values and promote resilience.
4. Identify vulnerabilities, barriers, and info gaps.
5. Provide Recommendations to move forward.
– For Forest Company Licensees
– For the Ministry of Forests Executive
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KFFS – Multi-disciplinary/agency/stakeholder involvement…
Min of Forests & Range (MFR)
Executive
Min of Forests & Range (MFR)
Executive
KFFS TSA teamKFFS TSA team
Symmetree Support
Team
Symmetree Support
Team
MFR Kamloops District and Region
info session•20-30 staff
MFR Kamloops District and Region
info session•20-30 staff
Min of Environment Info
Session•3 staff
Min of Environment Info
Session•3 staff
BCTS S. Interior Info Session
•50-60 staff
BCTS S. Interior Info Session
•50-60 staff
TR University Info Session
•5 staff
TR University Info Session
•5 staff
UBC Advisory Session
•3 staff
UBC Advisory Session
•3 staff
MFR Victoria Branch
Specialists Advisory Session•5 staff
MFR Victoria Branch
Specialists Advisory Session•5 staff
British Forestry Commission
•1 staff member
British Forestry Commission
•1 staff member
Ecological & Management Sensitivity
Workshops•9 MFR Regional Specialists.•4 MoE Specialists•1 MFR District person•3 Licensee practitioners•1 First Nations rep•2 University professors•2 Other specialists
Ecological & Management Sensitivity
Workshops•9 MFR Regional Specialists.•4 MoE Specialists•1 MFR District person•3 Licensee practitioners•1 First Nations rep•2 University professors•2 Other specialists
National Forest Adaptation Strategy
•2 staff•KFFS will be a case study
National Forest Adaptation Strategy
•2 staff•KFFS will be a case study
Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium
•1staff member
Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium
•1staff member
Conference Board of Canada•28 on leaders’ round table
Conference Board of Canada•28 on leaders’ round table
SISCO Workshops•75 Summer•40-50 Winter
SISCO Workshops•75 Summer•40-50 Winter
BC FFEI Info webcast and Planning session•100+ staff
BC FFEI Info webcast and Planning session•100+ staff
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Mapping impacts of climate change over time…
Used ClimateBC to downscale GCM data, along with GIS tools and local ecological interpretation to:
– Express changes in future climates as changes in ecological subzone-climates.
– Explored the reclustering of new climate variables guided by current data.
– Ecologist judgments for boundary decisions and reasonable gradient of subzones
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Modeling Climate Change with ClimateBC…
Added climate input files for two different Global Climate Models with divergent Global Emission Scenarios:
– HadCM3-A1FI (Most Change / Worst Case Scenario)
– Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction UK.
– Pessimistic view of future emissions –current trend into the future.
– Predicts hottest driest summers.
– PCM-B1 (Least Change / Best Case Scenario)
– Atmospheric Research Program for Climate Modeling USA.
– Optimistic that emissions will be significantly reduced.
– Predicts moderate summers.
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Northern Half of TSA… Current Ecological Zonation 11
Northern Half of TSA… Best Case in 2050 (PCM-B1) 12
Northern Half of TSA… Worst Case in 2050 (Hadley A1FI) 13
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Ecological Narratives
Ecological Sensitivities 15
MSxk – Bookend climate scenarios
ECOLOGICAL SENSITIVITY WORKSHOP – Kamloops Future Forest Strategy 2008
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MSxk STANDS / ECOSYSTEMS – In a changing climate 17
Ecological Sensitivity Assessment
PRODUCT = Ecological Narratives.
– Future Forest Conditions - IF WE CONTINUE TO MANAGE AS WE DO NOW.
– Changes in mature and old growth stands across the landscape.
– Changes in young stands across the landscapes
– Disturbance mechanisms
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Ecological Sensitivities provide context for next stepsSummary with 5 BEC Subzone-Groups
Dry Subzones with lodgepole pine HIGH
- Too hot and dry after 2050 for lodgepole. - Estimate 37% of landbase in young lodgepole- increased fire risk.
Dry Subzones with Douglas-fir and ponderosa pine
HIGH- Continuing mortality in Doug-fir will thin out and open up stands.- Increased grassland patches.- Increased fire risk.
Cedar-Hemlock to Douglas-fir Transitional Subzones
MOD -HIGH
- Fd drops out of mixedwoods due to drought / root rot / D-fir beetle combo.- Lose considerable cedar, spruce and birch past 2050- Increased fire risk.
Dry- Moist Plateau/ High Elevation Subzones
MOD- Increased growth in most species.- Beyond 2050 – subalpine fir drops out, lodgepole at high risk, spruce questionable on some sites lower down. May see a few large fires.
Cool/Cold & Wet Subzones LOW
-Increased mortality in old growth- Increased growth in young stands- Weevil problems for young spruce.
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Management Sensitivities 20
GENERAL TRENDS - Management SensitivitiesSummary with 5 Broad Ecological Zones
SUBZONE GROUP % of the TSA
Management Sensitivity
Summarized Rationale for Sensitivity
Dry forests with lodgepole pine
28 MOD-HIGH• High impacts on timber, biodiversity ,habitats
and fish.• Significant issues for water, interface, and First
Nations culturally important plants.
Dry forests with Douglas-fir and ponderosa pine
10 HIGH• High impacts on timber, biodiversity ,habitats
and fish, water, fire in the urban interface, First Nations culturally important plants and visual quality.
Cedar-Hemlock to Douglas-fir Transitional Forests
26 MOD-HIGH• High impacts on timber.• Significant issues on biodiversity, habitats and
fish, water, fire in the urban interface, and visual quality
Dry- Moist Plateau/ High Elevation Forests
15 MOD• Moderate impact on timber, water and First
Nations culturally important plants.• Significant issues for some habitats and fish.
Cool/Cold & Wet Forests
21 MINOR-MOD• Minor timber concerns long term – may be some
short term benefits.• Minor concerns for habitat, except for Caribou• Significant concerns for water quality.
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RESULTS: Management Sensitivities…EXAMPLE : Dry Subzones with Pli
• Pine on marginal sites will become Non-productive -shrinking the harvestable landbase.
• KEY – Existing timber stands could take a huge hit:
– 30-40% of landbase will be in young pine post MPB.
– Expect widespread mortality again after 2050.
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RESULTS: Management Sensitivities…EXAMPLE : Dry Subzones with Pli
• Extensive disturbance and mortality threatens:
– The small amount of Old Growth habitats in the area.
– The amount and distribution of mature trees as wildlife trees and patches.
– To increase amount of invasive plants.
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RESULTS: Management Sensitivities…EXAMPLE : Dry Subzones with Pli
• Extensive disturbance and mortality threatens:
– The small amount of Old Growth habitats in the area.
– The amount and distribution of mature trees as wildlife trees and patches.
– To increase amount of invasive plants.
Will also impact species at risk, or “of concern”
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Just a caution…
None of this is TRUE or REAL…
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BUT – It is:
• Less unbelievable than assuming nothing will change.
• Plausible- based on what we know now.
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Planting different tree species
Adaptive Actions
Targeted HarvestingOther Stand Treatments
Integrated Strategic Planning
Brinkman and Associates
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EXAMPLE: Adaptive Actions…OVERVIEW: Dry Subzones with Pli 29
Vision for the Future Forest Condition to 2080
1. The Future Forest, as influenced by KFFS Adaptive Actions.
• A story of different developing landscapes
2. The Conditions for each Key Management Value.• With and without the KFFS.
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The Future Forest – The Timber Supply Picture 31
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Vulnerabilities: Cedar-Hemlock to Doug-fir Transitional Forests
Vulnerability with PARTIAL
implementation (Due to barriers)
Vulnerability with PARTIAL
implementation (Due to barriers)
Vulnerability with FULL
implementation (barriers removed)
Vulnerability with FULL
implementation (barriers removed)
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RESULTS: General Management BARRIERS…
1. There is no process to integrate strategically over the long term at multiple spatial scales.
2. Our current system encourages least cost silviculture.
3. Difficult to encourage licensees to harvest susceptible stands - if profit is marginal.
4. Difficult to manage throughout the life of the forest (beyond free-growing).
5. Licensees and the province are reluctant to take on more risk associated with forest management.
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GENERAL TRENDS - Vulnerabilities…Potential vs. Projected Management Vulnerability
THE ENTIRE TSA
Vulnerability with PARTIAL
implementation (Due to barriers)
Vulnerability with PARTIAL
implementation (Due to barriers)
Vulnerability with FULL
implementation (barriers removed)
Vulnerability with FULL
implementation (barriers removed)
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THE POINT OF ALL THIS?
Climate Change underscores the need to significantly shift the way we manage our forests.
Must heed warning signs
OR?
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RECOMMENDATIONS•To address key barriers.•To start implementation
RECOMMENDATIONS•To address key barriers.•To start implementation
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Recommendations…to:
Start implementing management actions on the ground.
Take the approach to the rest of BC
Integrate into a strategic planning process
Address legislation and policy to remove barriers
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What is next? – Follow-up project 2009-2011
1. Use suggested direction regarding adaptive actions to more robust adaptive actions with modeling and scenario analysis.
• For key question regarding several overlapping values/issues (e.g. timber, biodiversity, interface fire risks, carbon).
• In a case study area or areas that include the most vulnerable landscapes.
2. Explore some sensitivities with the most uncertainties.
• To improve confidence and credibility in the need for adaptive actions.
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For more information:
KFFS webpage - http://www.for.gov.bc.ca/hcp/ffs/kamloopsFFS.htm.
(Google - Kamloops Future Forest Strategy)
Ken Zielke
ph. 604-921-6077
email : kzielke@symmetree.ca
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