the maryland-national capital park & planning commission
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The Maryland-National Capital Park & Planning Commission
September 13, 2003
Adequacy of school facilities
Housing
Managing growthin Montgomery County
Presentation Outline
• What are the trends affecting school enrollment and classroom capacity?
• How does the AGP test the adequacy of public school facilities?
• What are the trends in housing, including affordable housing?
What are the trends affecting school enrollment and
classroom capacity?
Factors affecting school enrollment
• Enrollment September 2002: 138,891
• Overlapping factors: • Births:
• Aging through:
• Migration (moving into both new and existing housing)
• Overall: new development is responsible for about 20% of enrollment growth.
County births reach all-time high in 2002
13154
12466
12733
1314913055
123691243212194 12203 12185
1181211847
12251
11,000
11,500
12,000
12,500
13,000
13,500
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Montgomery County Resident Births
3 One child born every 40 minutes
3,491
2,8372,652
2,059
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03
MCPS enrollment change from prior year
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
MCPS Grades K-5 Enrollment Actual 1980-2002 & Projected 2003- 08
Grades K-5 enrollment begins increasing again in 3 years
33,146
59,112 61, 800
15,000
17,000
19,000
21,000
23,000
25,000
27,000
29,000
31,000
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
MCPS Grades 6-8 Enrollment Actual 1980-2002 & Projected 2003- 08
Grades 6 –8 enrollment reaches plateau over next six years
30,40730,112
7
18,661
26,000
28,000
30,000
32,000
34,000
36,000
38,000
40,000
42,000
44,000
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
MCPS Grades 9 - 12 Enrollment Actual 1980-2002 & Projected 2003- 08
Grades 9 - 12 enrollment increases for most of six year forecast
39,306 42,121
26,777
Total enrollment continues to increase over next six years
MCPS Total EnrollmentIncluding Pre-K and Special Education
Actual 1980-2002 and Projected 2003-08
84,000
94,000
104,000
114,000
124,000
134,000
144,000
154,000
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
91,030
138,891
144,801
8
0
30,000
60,000
90,000
120,000
150,000
Since 1983, MCPS enrollment growth exceeds 48,000
MCPS Enrollment by Race/ Ethnic Group, 1970 - 2002
HISPANIC
ASIAN-AMERICAN
AFRICAN-AMERICAN
WHITE
African-American, Asian-American & Hispanic populations increase
191191190189189185183181180178177175172170
159153153152163
0
50
100
150
200
250
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
MCPS Operates 191 Schools in 2003-04
Number of MCPS Operating Schools
200 208 202 210 237 290 352 381 387 437
61151 207
204
38
4641
41
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04
Day Care/ Other
Class Size Reduction
Enrollment
Number of relocatables increases
MCPS - Number of Relocatables in Use, 2003-04 & Reason For Use Beginning in 2000-01
22 Increase due to enrollment growth & class size reductions
682
How does the current AGP test the adequacy of school
facilities?
Current school test
• Schools tested at 3 levels (elementary, middle, high) for every cluster.
• Compare future enrollment to future capacity (5 years from now).
• Capacity: kindergarten: 44 or 22; grades 1-5: 25; secondary grades: 22.5
• Cluster with enrollment over 100% of capacity: use capacity in adjacent clusters.
• Damascus cluster’s moratorium (FY2002) lifted due to new Clarksburg High School.
School test example
Quince Orchard Elementary Schools2008 Enrollment 2,9152008 Capacity 3,015Capacity Avail. 100
Watkins Mill Elementary Schools2008 Enrollment 3,1472008 Capacity 3,079Capacity Deficit 68
School test concerns
• When schools are over-crowded, the test shouldn’t say “adequate.”
• Are we using the best measures of enrollment and capacity?
• Using capacity from adjacent clusters is problematic.
• Need mechanism for development to pay toward school facilities.
Comparing enrollment & capacity
100%, No Borrowing“AGP Capacity”
100%, No Borrowing“MCPS Program Capacity”
Enrollment exceeds capacityEnrollment below capacity
Planning Board’s recommendation & the school test
• Individual development proposals are not subject to a school adequacy review.
• School adequacy taken into account in setting Preliminary Plan Approval Rate.
• Proposal benefits schools in two ways:
• Slows pace of residential development approvals
• Requires payment of development impact tax for schools at building permit.
• Endorsed by Board of Education
Planning Board’s proposed school impact tax rates
Residential (proposed)
Detached Town Garden Hi-Rise Senior MPDUs
$8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $1,600 $0 $0
Residential rates per unit; “Senior” means multi-family senior housing; “MPDU” means “moderately-priced dwelling unit” as defined by County law.
What are the trends in housing, including affordable housing?
-500
500
1,500
2,500
3,500
4,500
5,500
6,500
7,500
8,50019
88
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
*
About 65,500 new units were built from 1988 through 2002
Townhouse and multi-family increased in 2002;2002 completions exceed prior 12 years
5,485
Source; M-NCPPC Research & Technology Center
Single-Family Detached
TownhouseMulti-family
Housing prices continue to rise
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,00019
87
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
1st
Hal
f 20
02
Median price of single-family home
Source: M-NCPPC Research & Technology Center
Housing affordability shows slight decline.
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
The higher the score, the more affordable thehousing is. A score of 1 means the monthly
cost of buying a home equals 28% of gross income.
Affordability index for existing single-family homes
Source: M-NCPPC Research & Technology Center
Interest rate increases are a potential threat to affordability
gains in the past decade.
$0$50,000
$100,000$150,000$200,000$250,000$300,000$350,000$400,000$450,000$500,000
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
*
2002 brings marked increase in most prices
Median PricesNew Single Family
New Townhouse
Existing Townhouse
2002 prices are for the first half of the year only.
Source: M-NCPPC Research & Technology Center
Existing Single Family
Apartment vacancy rates riseEconomic downturn, new units reduce pressure
4.4% 4.2%3.7%
3.0%2.5%
1.8%
3.5%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Source: Montgomery County Office of Landlord-Tenant Affairs
Vacancy rate
Rents continue upward trend
$726
$871$928
$1,030$1,076
$300
$600
$900
$1,200
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Turnover rents (Unsubsidized)
Monthly rent, in dollars
Source: Montgomery County Office of Landlord-Tenant Affairs
Summary
• School trends: the challenge will continue as enrollment increases and becomes more diverse.
• Current school test: Almost never imposes moratorium, but most enrollment growth is not due to new development
• Proposed school impact tax: Would provide a dedicated revenue source for 20% of CIP
• Housing: Demand is very high and most trends threaten affordability. One that doesn’t: more multi-family units are being built.
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