the next digital disruptions

The next digital disruptions

Lee RainiePew Research Center

Director Internet, Science and Technology Research

Presented to: Future of the NetMilan, Italy

October 5, 2015

Networked IndividualismThe move to looser, far-flung networks

Personal networks are:More important – trust

Differently composed – segmented, layeredMediators and feedback providers

Three digital technology revolutions in the past generation

1) In U.S. - 89% use the internet (46% in 2000) 70% - broadband @ home (3% in 2000) Italy – 7-in-10 use internet (38% in 2007)2) In U.S. - 92% use cell phone (53% in 2000) 68% -- smartphone (35% in 2011) Italy – More than 90% use cell phones 60% - smartphones3) In U.S. 65% use social networking sites (3% in

2005) Italy – more than 60% use social networking

A few basics on the Triple Revolution in U.S. and Italy - % of adults

May 2, 2023 7www.pewresearch.org

www.pewresearch.org

www.pewresearch.org

www.pewresearch.org

Future disruptions

Digital Life in 2025

The Internet will become ‘like electricity’ — less visible, yet more deeply embedded in people’s lives

for good and ill

Upsides: enhanced health, education, convenience, productivity, safety, and vastly more useful

information and self-awareness. Downsides: privacy challenges, over-hyped

expectations, and tech complexity.

The Internet of Things Will Thrive by 2025

Theme 1) There will be a global, immersive, invisible, ambient

networked computing environment built through growth of smart sensors,

cameras, software, databases, and artificial intelligence.

Theme 2) There will be smart agent and augmented-reality enhancements

to the real-world input that people perceive through the use of portable / wearable / implantable technologies.

Theme 3) Social and business encounters and personal and business enrichment will be

shaped by virtual reality and telepresence.

Theme 4) There will tagging, databasing, and intelligent analytical mapping of the physical and social

realms.

Darksides

Theme 1) The nature of work will change in unprecedented ways as robots and artificial intelligence assume greater

roles in job functions

Theme 2) Privacy will be more at risk and something perhaps only the

privileged will enjoy.

Theme 3) Dangerous divides between haves and have-nots may expand,

resulting in resentment and possible violence.

http://vis4.net/blog/posts/mapping-internet-and-population/

Theme 4) Abuses and abusers will ‘evolve and scale.’ Human nature isn’t changing; there’s

laziness, bullying, stalking, stupidity, pornography, dirty tricks, crime, and those who practice them have new capacity to make life

miserable for others.

Theme 5) Humans and their organizations may not respond quickly

enough to challenges presented by complex networks.

Grazie mille!