the power of nsip to improve profitability

The Power of NSIP to Improve Profitability

November 21, 2015

Rusty Burgett, Program Director

NSIP to Increase Profits

• Our Mission:

– To provide predictable, economically important genetic evaluation information to the American sheep industry by converting performance records into relevant decision-making tools.

2

NSIP to Increase Profits

• Why do we need a profit driven genetic selection tool for U.S. sheep?

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4

5

6

7

8

9

Australian sheep inventory and lamb production

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Ewe Inventory

Lamb Production

Ind

ex o

f P

rod

uct

ion

(%

)

Source: ABARE 2014

Importance of Genetic Selection

11

• Need to produce more lamb and wool from a smaller national flock

– U.S. Sheep Industry Roadmap

– Productivity Improvement

• Wider adoption of Quantitative Genetic Selection

• Genetics are the foundation to build upon

Which Ram?

Value of a Ram

• Profit is determined by pounds of lamb sold per ewe.

– Number of lambs born

– Number of lambs weaned

– Birth, weaning and post weaning weight of lambs

Which Ram?

Importance of Genetic Selection

Phenotype = Genetics + Environment

15

~75% of what you see is due to the environment the ram was raised in

40% of growth and carcass traits are controlled by genetics

12% of Reproductive traits are controlled by genetics

Adjust for Variation

• Program will account for environmental differences (Birth type, heritability, feed…)

Phenotype = Genetics + Environment

19

Estimated Breeding Values

• EBVs are tools that:

– Minimize guesswork of ram selection

– Assign number values to genetic merit

– Allows for quick, easy comparison

– More powerful than actual performance data, adjusted means...

– Focused on economically important traits

20

How to Start

How do we Get EBVs?

• Similar to EPDs

• Measure Phenotypic traits of animal

– Body weights

– Carcass measurements

– Reproduction

– Wool Traits

22

How do we Get EBVs?

• Submit that data to NSIP

– Pedigree Master

– Stockbook

– Other software programs

23

Adjust for Variation

• Heritability = % of a trait that is controlled by genetics

• Weaning weight ~0.3 or 30% controlled by genetics

– WWT 65 X 0.3 = 19.5

– WWT 75 X 0.3 = 22.5

24

Adjust for Variation

• Program will account for environmental differences (Birth type, heritability, feed…)

Phenotype = Genetics + Environment

25

Analyze pedigrees

• Compare performance to all relatives

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Analyze Pedigrees

• An individual’s performance is:

– Compared to its contemporaries

– Standardized for environment

– Compared to every known relative

• Including relatives in other flocks

• Adjust for genetic relationship (shared genes) and heritability of each trait

27

Interpreting EBVs

The Good News?

• You don’t have to worry about doing any genetic calculations!

– NSIP takes care of all the work

• Enrolled flocks just submit measures and EBVs are returned

29

What Traits are available?

• Weight:

– Birth

– Weaning

– Post Weaning

– Yearling/hogget

• Carcass:

– Eye muscle

– Fat depth

• Fleece:

– GFW

– Curvature CV

– Fiber Diameter

• Reproduction:

– NLB

– NLW

• Fecal Egg Count

30

What Traits are available?

• Production Index-

– Combines multiple traits into 1 figure

• USA Range

• USA Maternal

• Carcass Plus

• USA Hair

31

How to Start - Step 1

• Make a commitment to improvement

– Decision to lead the sheep industry in productivity improvement

• Develop a plan for genetic improvement

Structure for Genetic Improvement

• Seedstock and purebred producers enroll in NSIP

– Use EBVs to isolate genes for profitability

• Commercial Producers then use those genetics to efficiently and profitably produce lamb

Analyze Production

• Quantify current production level:

– Number of lambs born/ewe

– Number of lambs weaned/ewe

– Average weaning weight of lambs

– Average post weaning growth (ADG)

– Loin eye area and back fat thickness

NLB 1.2

NLW 0.8

WWT 62

GFW 8.5

Set Goals

• Establish a goal for improvement of each trait

• Prioritize importance of each goal for profit

Trait Current Goal Priority

NLB 1.2 2.0 2

NLW 0.8 2.0 1

WWT 62 68 3

GFW 6.5 8.5 4

Step 3. Use EBVs in Selection

• Choose rams that will produce daughters to meet our goals

• Priority 1.-select ram in top 10% of breed for that trait

• Priority 2.-select ram in top 20% of breed

• Priority 3.-select ram in top 25% of breed

Step 3. Use EBVs in Selection

Trait Current Goal Priority Percentile

NLB 1.2 2.0 2 Top 20%

NLW 0.8 2.0 1 Top 10%

WWT 62 68 3 Top 25%

Trait Current Goal Priority Percentile

NLB 1.2 2.0 2 Top 20%

NLW 0.8 2.0 1 Top 10%

WWT 62 68 3 Top 25%

Step 3. Use EBVs in Selection

Step 3. Use EBVs in Selection

Trait Current Goal Priority Percentile

NLB 1.2 2.0 2 Top 20%

NLW 0.8 2.0 1 Top 10%

WWT 62 68 3 Top 25%

Step 3. Use EBVs in Selection

• Once we have a highly productive ewe flock, we can cross breed with terminal sires selected for growth and carcass

Step 3. Use EBVs in Selection

Not a Silver Bullet

• Visual appraisal of ram for:

– Sound feet and legs, free of foot rot

– Correct mouth structure

– Breeding soundness exam

– Health status and susceptibility

• Scrapie

• OPP

• Spider

Not a Silver Bullet

• Does not replace good management

– Breeding Program

• Including cross breeding!

– Nutrition

– Marketing

46

Does it Work?

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Nu

mb

er

of

Lam

bs

Bo

rn E

BV

(%

)

Targhee Reproduction

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014We

anin

g an

d M

ate

rnal

W

ean

ing

We

igh

t EB

Vs

(lb

)

Targhee Growth

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Fle

ece

We

igh

t an

d F

ibe

r D

iam

ete

r EB

Vs

Targhee Wool

99.0

100.0

101.0

102.0

103.0

104.0

105.0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

USA

Ran

ge E

BV

s ($

)

Western Range Index

47

Genetic Progress

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Nu

mb

er

of

Lam

bs

Bo

rn a

nd

W

ean

ed

EB

Vs

Year

Polypay Reproduction

NLB (%)

NLW (%)

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

We

anin

g an

d M

ate

rnal

W

ean

ing

We

igh

t EB

Vs

Year

Polypay Growth

WW (lb)

MWW (lb)

48

14 extra lambs/100 ewes lambing!

1.75 pounds heavier @ 60 days=201 more lbs of lamb!

Genetic Progress

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

We

anin

g an

d P

ost

we

anin

g W

eig

ht

EBV

s

Year

Suffolk Growth

WW (lb)

PWW (lb)

-0.0350

-0.0300

-0.0250

-0.0200

-0.0150

-0.0100

-0.0050

0.0000

0.0050

0.0100

0.0150

Eye

Mu

scle

an

d F

at D

ep

th E

BV

s

Year

Suffolk Carcass

EMD (in)

Fat (in)

49

Conclusion

• This method is designed to:

– Reduce risks associated with ram selection

– Expedite genetic progress

– Increase productivity

Visit www.nsip.org for more information including percentile and elite sire reports

Thank you!

• Questions?

• Paid for in part by the American Sheep Industry

Analyze Production

• Flock and Breed basis

• Quantify current production level:

– Number of lambs born/ewe

– Number of lambs weaned/ewe

– Average weaning weight of lambs

– Average post weaning growth (ADG)

– Fleece weight and quality characteristics

NLB 1.2

WWT 62

GFW 8.5

Trait Current Goal Priority

NLB 1.2 2.0 1

WWT 62 68 2

GFW 6.5 8.5 3

Set Goals

• Establish a goal for improvement of each trait

• Prioritize importance of each goal for profit

Develop a Breeding Plan

• Focused on genetic improvement for profitability

• Use EBVs to facilitate selection decisions

• Facilitate ease of data collection

– Contemporary group structure

• Consortium goals

Use EBVs in Selection

• Start with Production Indexes

– Combine multiple traits into one value

– Maternal-USA Maternal

– Terminal-Carcass Plus

– Range-USA Range

– Hair-USA Hair

– Select from top 40% of the index

Use EBVs in Selection

Use EBVs in Selection

http://nsip.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/62-Percentiles.pdf

Use EBVs in Selection

Use EBVs in Selection

• Select for individual traits

– Based on priority of goals

• Priority 1.-select ram in top 10% of breed for that trait

• Priority 2.-select ram in top 20% of breed

• Priority 3.-select ram in top 25% of breed

Use EBVs in Selection

Trait Current Goal Priority Percentile

NLB 1.2 2.0 1 Top 10%

WWT 62 68 2 Top 20%

GFW 6.5 8.5 3 Top 25%

http://nsip.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/62-Percentiles.pdf

Trait Current Goal Priority Percentile

NLB 1.2 2.0 1 Top 10%

WWT 62 68 2 Top 20%

GFW 6.5 8.5 3 Top 25%

Use EBVs in Selection

http://nsip.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/62-Percentiles.pdf

Use EBVs in Selection

• Prioritizing selection pressure on individual traits will expedite genetic progress

• Priority should be placed on economically important traits

“Common Sense Traits”

• Visual appraisal of ram for:

– Sound feet and legs, free of foot rot

– Correct mouth structure

– Breeding soundness exam

– Health status and susceptibility

• Scrapie

• OPP

• Spider

Not a Silver Bullet

• Does not replace good management

– Breeding Program

• Including cross breeding!

– Nutrition

– Marketing

68

Does it Work?

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Nu

mb

er

of

Lam

bs

Bo

rn E

BV

(%

)

Targhee Reproduction

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014We

anin

g an

d M

ate

rnal

W

ean

ing

We

igh

t EB

Vs

(lb

)

Targhee Growth

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Fle

ece

We

igh

t an

d F

ibe

r D

iam

ete

r EB

Vs

Targhee Wool

99.0

100.0

101.0

102.0

103.0

104.0

105.0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

USA

Ran

ge E

BV

s ($

)

Western Range Index

69

Genetic Progress

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Nu

mb

er

of

Lam

bs

Bo

rn a

nd

W

ean

ed

EB

Vs

Year

Polypay Reproduction

NLB (%)

NLW (%)

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

We

anin

g an

d M

ate

rnal

W

ean

ing

We

igh

t EB

Vs

Year

Polypay Growth

WW (lb)

MWW (lb)

70

14 extra lambs/100 ewes lambing!

1.75 pounds heavier @ 60 days=201 more lbs of lamb!

Genetic Progress

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

We

anin

g an

d P

ost

we

anin

g W

eig

ht

EBV

s

Year

Suffolk Growth

WW (lb)

PWW (lb)

-0.0350

-0.0300

-0.0250

-0.0200

-0.0150

-0.0100

-0.0050

0.0000

0.0050

0.0100

0.0150

Eye

Mu

scle

an

d F

at D

ep

th E

BV

s

Year

Suffolk Carcass

EMD (in)

Fat (in)

71

Conclusion

• This method is designed to:

– Reduce risks associated with ram selection

– Expedite genetic progress

– Increase productivity

Visit www.nsip.org for more information including percentile and elite sire reports

Thank you!

• Questions?

• Paid for in part by the American Sheep Industry

Step 3. Use EBVs in Selection

Trait Current Goal Priority Percentile

NLB 1.2 2.0 2 Top 20%

NLW 0.8 2.0 1 Top 10%

WWT 62 68 3 Top 25%

http://nsip.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/62-Percentiles.pdf