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The Power to Reduce CO2 EmissionsThe Full Portfolio
National Association of Utility Regulatory CommissionersWinter Committee MeetingsCommittee on ElectricityFebruary 19, 2008
Revis W. JamesDirector, Energy Technology Assessment Center
2© 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
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1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
U.S
. Ele
ctri
c S
ecto
rC
O2 E
mis
sio
ns
(mill
ion
met
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s)
EIA Base Case 2008
2008 EIA CO2 Baseline is Lower than 2007 EIA CO2 Baseline
Technology EIA 2008 Reference Target
Efficiency Load Growth ~ +1.2%/yr Load Growth ~ +0.75%/yr
Renewables 60 GWe by 2030 100 GWe by 2030
Nuclear Generation 20 GWe by 2030 64 GWe by 2030
Advanced Coal GenerationNo Existing Plant Upgrades
40% New Plant Efficiency by 2020–2030
130 GWe Plant Upgrades
46% New Plant Efficiency by 2020; 49% in 2030
CCS None Widely Deployed After 2020
PHEV None10% of New Vehicle Sales by 2017;
+2%/yr Thereafter
DER < 0.1% of Base Load in 2030 5% of Base Load in 2030
EIA Base Case 2007
• Lower Demand Growth Rate
• 30GW more Renewables
• 8 GW more Nuclear
• Less natural gas
}
3© 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Generation Mix in 2030
Petroleum1.1%
Natural Gas 12.1%
Coal57.0%
Non-Hydro Renewables
5.5% Conventional Hydropower
5.8%
Nuclear 18.5%
Coal w/o CCS 38.9%
Advanced Coal w/CCS, 11.9%
Natural Gas7.6%
Nuclear 27.7%
Conventional Hydropower
4.9%
Non-Hydro Renewables
9.0%
EIA 2008 Base Case EPRI “Prism” Full Portfolio
Other Fossil1.7%
Natural Gas13.5%
Coal w/o CCS59.6%
Non-Hydro Renewables
3.0%
Conventional Hydropower
5.6%
Nuclear Power16.6%
EIA 2007 Base Case
4© 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Assumed U.S. Economy-Wide CO2 Constraint
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- Analyzed three different economy-wide CO2 constraints
- PRISM electric sector CO2
profile most closely modeled by economy-wide constraint which:
-Caps emissions at 2010 levels until 2020
-Requires 3% decline beginning in 2020
-Emissions reduced to ~85% of 1990 levels by 2050
Starting Point is Current Intensity Target
2010 Cap to 2020
3% decline
5© 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Electricity Technology Scenarios
Full Portfolio Limited Portfolio
Supply-Side
•Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)
Available Unavailable
•New NuclearProduction Can
ExpandExisting Production
Levels ~100 GW
•Renewables (no subsidies) Costs Decline Costs Decline Slower
•New Coal and Gas Improvements Improvements
Demand-Side
•Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV)
Available Unavailable
•End-Use EfficiencyAccelerated
ImprovementsImprovements
6© 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
U.S. Electric Generation - Full PortfolioCoal
w/CCS
Gas
w/CCS Nuclear
Hydro
Wind
SolarOil
Demand Reduction
Demand with No Policy
Biomass
Full Portfolio (economic allocation)
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3
2
1
02000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Tri
llio
n k
Wh
per
Ye
ar
Coal
Coal with CCS
Gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Gas and non-captured coal are the
only supply options paying a CO2 cost
The vast majority of
electricity supply is CO2-free
Wind
Public Policy (RPS) would modify
this economic allocation
7© 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
U.S. Electric Generation – Limited PortfolioCoal
w/CCS
Gas
w/CCS Nuclear
Hydro
Wind
SolarOil
Demand Reduction
Demand with No Policy
Biomass
8
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6
5
4
3
2
1
02000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Tri
llio
n k
Wh
per
Ye
ar
Limited Portfolio (economic allocation)
Coal
Gas
Nuclear • Gas (half the CO2 intensity of coal) pays a significant CO2 cost
• ~ 2.8x greater than NG electricity production in 2005
• Highly improbable.
With a less de-carbonized supply,
electricity load must decline
to meet the CO2 emissions target
WindHydro
Biomass
8© 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
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Full
Limited
$/to
n C
O2*
*Real (inflation-adjusted) 2000$
CO2 Emission Cost – Economy Wide
Year
With a de-carbonized electricity supply,
other parts of the economy pay a CO2 cost…
not the electricity sector
9© 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Full
Limited
$/to
n C
O2*
*Real (inflation-adjusted) 2000$
CO2 Emission Cost – Economy Wide
Year
With a less de-carbonized supply,
the electricity sector pays a significant
CO2 cost…along with other sectors
10© 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
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2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
0.0
0.5
1.0
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2.0
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4.0
Wholesale Electricity Price
Full
Limited
$/M
Wh*
Inde
x R
elat
ive
to Y
ear
2000
*Real (inflation-adjusted) 2000$Year
In the Full Portfolio the price of
electricity has a low CO2 cost
component and increases less
11© 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Full Technology Portfolio Reduces Costs of a CO2 Emissions Reduction Policy by 60%
12© 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
RD&D is a good investment
$1,000B
$30B
RD&D Investment(2005-2030, present value in 2000 $)
Avoided Cost to U.S. Economy
(2000-2050, present value in 2000 $)
13© 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Technology Challenges
1. Smart Grids and Communication Infrastructure
2. Transmission Grids and Associated Energy Storage Infrastructures
3. Advanced Light Water Reactors
4. Coal-Based Generation Units with CO2 Capture and Storage
Demonstration Projects
Smart Grids
Compressed Air Energy Storage
Concentrated Solar Power Plant (CSP)
CCS using Chilled Ammonia
CCS using a Different Technology
Advanced Pulverized Coal Plant – UltraGen I
IGCC with CCS
Low-cost O2 Production
Launch the Technology
14© 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
EPRI Vision
Revis James
Director, Energy Technology Assessment Center
rejames@epri.com
15© 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Backup Slides
16© 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Assumed U.S. Economy-Wide CO2 ConstraintComparison
Source: U.S. DoE Energy Information Administration 2008 Annual Energy Outlook (Early Release, Figure 8)
2030 Emissions from MERGE Analysis
~60% of EIA 2030 projected
17© 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Transition to Low-Emissions Technologies
• Expanded Advanced Light Water Reactor Deployment
• Enabling Efficiency, PHEVs, DER via the Smart Distribution Grid
• Enabling Intermittent Renewables via Advanced Transmission Grids
• Advanced Coal Plants with CO2 Capture and Storage
18© 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Building for the FutureEnabling Efficiency, PHEVs, DER via the Smart Distribution Grid
Smart Distribution Smart Distribution System DemonstrationsSystem Demonstrations
Intelligent devices and automatic energy
management widespread.
Major penetration of PHEVs into new light
vehicle market.
Deployment of Smart Distribution
grids
19© 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Building for the FutureEnabling Intermittent Renewables via Advanced Transmission Grids
Advanced 350 MW Advanced 350 MW CAES DemonstrationCAES Demonstration
Intermittent renewables could provide as much as 20-30% of generation in
some areas.
Deployment of advanced transmission grid
technologies.
Concentrated Solar Concentrated Solar Power Plant (CSP)Power Plant (CSP)
20© 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Building for the FutureExpanded Advanced Light Water Reactor Deployment
First new nuclear First new nuclear plants deployedplants deployed
Existing nuclear plant licenses extended to
80 years.
ALWR deployment.
All existing nuclear plant licenses extended
to 60 years.
21© 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Existing Nuclear Plant Licenses
Source: Nuclear Energy Institute
40 year licenses: 2009-2035
60 year licenses: 2029-2055
80 year licenses: 2049-2075
22© 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
New Nuclear Plants2007 EPRI MERGE Analysis (generic CO2 emissions constraint)
23© 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Building for the Future Advanced Coal Plants with CO2 Capture and Storage
Commercial availability of CO2
storage.
COCO22 Capture Capture
DemonstrationsDemonstrations
COCO22 Storage Storage
DemonstrationsDemonstrations
UltraGen I—Advanced Pulverized Coal UltraGen I—Advanced Pulverized Coal Plant (with COPlant (with CO22 Capture) Capture)
All new coal plants capture 90% of CO2.
Potential CO2 capture retrofits?
Potential CO2 capture for Natural Gas Combined
Cycle plants?
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