the public perception of risk risk in uncertainty seminar 13th november 2002 vince jenkins

THE PUBLIC PERCEPTION OF RISK

Risk in Uncertainty Seminar

13th November 2002

Vince Jenkins

WHAT DO WE MEAN?

Risk Perception & Aversion

• What is risk as far as

• You are concerned

• The public are concerned

• Your clients are concerned

• Owners~shareholders are concerned

Risks Perceived by Different Groups of People Factor 1: Unknown risk

Factor 2: Dread risk

DNA RESEARCH

EARTH ORBITING SATELLITE

SPACE EXPLORATION

LASERSNUCLEAR POWER

LAETRIL

CHEMICAL DISINFECTANTS

NON-NUCLEAR ELECTRIC POWER

HYDROELECTRIC POWER

FOOD PRESERVATIVES

ASBESTOS

LIQUID NATURAL GAS

CHEMICAL FERTILIZERS

RADIATION THERAPY

FOSSIL ELECTRIC POWERPESTICIDES

HERBICIDES

DDT

SKYSCRAPERS SST

NERVE GAS

NUCLEAR WEAPONS

NATIONAL DEFENCE

TERRORISM

CRIME

WARFAREDYNAMITE

HANDGUNS

FIREFIGHTING

POLICE WORK

HEROINSMOKING

ANPHETAMINES

BARBITURATES

MORPHINE

COMMERCIAL AVIATION

OPEN-HEART SURGERY

JUMBO JETS

BRIDGES

SOLAR ELECTRIC POWER

FOOD IRRADIATION

SODIUM NITRATE

FOOD COLOURING

SACCHARINE

COSMETICS

HAIR DYES

ASPIRIN

MICROWAVE OVENS

FLUORESCENT LIGHTS

WATER FLUORIDATION

ORAL CONTRACEPTIVES

DIAGNOSTIC X-RAYS

CHRISTMAS TREE LIGHTS

PRESCRIPTION DRUGSVACCINATIONS

JOGGING

SUNBATHING

HOME APPLIANCES

ANTIBIOTICSHOME GAS FURNACES

TRACTORS

SKATEBOARDS

MUSHROOM HUNTING

DARVON

VALIUM

ANESTHETICS

ROLLER COASTERS

SURGERYPREGNANCY, CHILDBIRTHSCUBA DIVING

FIREWORKS

RAILROADSGENERAL AVIATION

SURFING

MOTOR VEHICLESALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES

HUNTING

MOUNTAIN CLIMBINGMOTORCYCLES

DOWNHILL SKIING

FOOTBALLBICYCLES

HOME POWER TOOLS

RECREATIONAL BOATING

SWIMMING POOLSCAFFEINE

POWER LAWN MOWERS

BOXING

Factor 1: Unknown risk

Factor 2: Dread risk

Attitudes Towards Regulation of these Risks

Transport Risks

Passenger Fatality by Mode of Travel

Fatality rate per 100 million

Mode Pass kms

Car 0.40

Van 0.20

TWMV 9.70

Pedal Cycle 4.30

Foot 5.30

Bus or Coach 0.04

Rail 0.10

Water 0.60

Air 0.03

Pass journeys

4.5

2.7

100

12

5.1

0.3

2.7

25

55

Pass hours

15

6.6

300

60

20

0.1

4.8

12

15

•Throwing yourself off a perfectly serviceable boat•Immerse yourself in an alien environment

•Your oxygen source is very finite

•Risk of the bends etc, etc

Diving involves the followingDiving involves the following:

Diving the Perception & Risk

Mobile Telephones

• Media concern - micro wave exposure

• Sales gone down?

• Why?– Immediate benefit– No obvious & immediate detriment to you – High degree of personal control

• Long term…….?

RISKRISK

BENEFITSBENEFITSCONSEQUENCESCONSEQUENCESIMMEDIATEIMMEDIATE

MMR - further combined - Chickenpox

• No proven link?• Reduction in

vaccinations…..• Increase of measles

& fatalities• Big industry

involved……...• Lack of effective

communication…?

Mad Cow Disease - Beef On The Bone

HSE: Maximum Tolerable Risk

HSE: Broadly Acceptable Risk

0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6-1-2-3-4-5-6

0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6-1-2-3-4-5-6Derived From John Paling © The Environmental Institute 1992The Paling Perspective Scale

MINISCULE RISK RISK MASSIVERISK RAPIDLY DECREASING RISK REMOTE RISK ACCEPTED RAPIDLY INCREASING RISK

Risk Comparisons - Individual Risk of Ingestion of Infectivity

10-610-710-810-910-1010-1110-12 10-5 10-4 10-3 10-2 10-1 100

Death from Sporadic CJD

Frequency Chart

Certainty is 95.12% from -11.40 to -6.70

.000

.006

.012

.018

.024

0

60.5

121

181.5

242

-13.00 -11.00 -9.00 -7.00 -5.00

10,000 Trials 1 Outlier

Forecast: Log Individual Risk

95% range

Dying from Cancer

All Accidents

Road Accidents

Accidents on Railway

Ingestion of Infectivity due to DRG

Struck by lightning

How does Business Manage?

• Pro-active in managing the impacts on their business

Financial lossFinancial loss

Bad press

What measures are important to a company

Reputation damage

Shell - Brent Spar

Summary

• Public perception:– Consequences vs immediate benefit

– Degree of control

– Under estimate familiar risks

– Over estimate unfamiliar ~ unpalatable risks

• Consideration in government decisions• Business must take account of the public

perspective

DET NORSKE VERITAS

DNV - April 96 - No. 1

Further information from:Vince Jenkins, DNV, Palace House, 3 Cathedral St, London. SE1 9DE.Tel: +44 (0)20-7716-6541 Fax: +44 (0)20-7357-0961e-mail:vince.jenkins@dnv.com

An Independent Foundation – Established 1864