the rise of splinternet- brigadoon 2016

THE RISE OF SPLINTERNET?Robert Moran - Partner, Brunswick Group

1989: Brave New World

3 Scenarios from GBN:

1. Change Without Progress2. New Empires3. MarketWorld

One other thing…

March 1989

Globalization

of…

TradeEconomiesInformation

Culture

Will continue

But, will it?

“an accelerated rise of ‘data nationalism’ and a digital world that begins to erect barriers rather than transcend them.”

Ambassador Michael Froman, US Trade Representative

“We’ll talk to France about how we can maintain a high level of data protection.”

“Above all, we’ll talk about European providers that offer security for our citizens, so that one shouldn’t have to send emails and other information across the Atlantic.”

DATA NATIONALISM & DATA LOCALIZATION

Routing Data Traffic Around the US:Forteleza to Lisbon Undersea Cable

Brazil-to-Portugal Cable Shapes Up as Anti-NSA Case Study by Anna Edgerton and Jordan Robertson

“Data Localization”

What FRAMEWORK do you use to think about the Internet?

GlobalCommons Roman

Roads

Sea Lanes

Battlefield National IntranetDangerousIdeas

“Is our vision of the World Wide Web the global digital commons

- at this point you should see butterflies flying here and soft background meadow-like music -

or a global free fire zone?“

- Former NSA and CIA director Michael Hayden

Revolutions in Military Affairs

• Chariots• Iron• Gunpowder• Volley Fire• Steam power • Rifling• Tanks• Air Power• Blitzkrieg (Radio)• Atomic Weapons• Precision Munitions• Cyber• Robotics

The US “could be fairly charged with themilitarization of the World Wide Web.”

- Former NSA and CIA director Michael Hayden

Office of Net Assessment

Andrew Marshal James Baker

If the Web lasts another 500 years, he said, it may be the thing the United States is remembered for

"the way the Romans are remembered for their roads.“

Former NSA and CIA director Michael Hayden

“Whosoever commands the sea commands the trade; whosoever commands the trade of the world commands the riches of the world and consequently the world itself.”

- Sir Walter Raleigh

Internet as Sea Lanes

Of course, if criminal hackers are pirates in this analogy, then nation states must kill them.

Server Nationalism

Server Globalism

Open Content

“Filtered” Content

Intra-Nat

InternetSplinternet

Filternet

Open Questions

• Will public opinion support nation state attempts to gain more control over the Internet?

• Will this take on a trade war dynamic?

• Could alternative technologies leap over barriers that nation states erect?

• Could data nationalism, pandemic, 3D printing and automation undermine or reverse globalization?