the social and economic effects of space weather (us project)...the social and economic effects of...

The Social and Economic Effects of Space Weather (US Project) May 2, 2017 Space Weather Workshop Broomfield, Colorado

Stacey L. Worman, Susan M. Taylor, Terry Onsager, Jeffery E. Adkins, Jennifer Sprague, Olivia Griot, Daniel N. Baker, Kevin F. Forbes, Matthew Ranson, and Dan Basoli

Abt Associates | pg 2

Overview

1) Goals

2) Approach

3) Results

4) Next Steps

Abt Associates | pg 3

Goals

Identify Describe Quantify

Abt Associates | pg 4

Approach

Identify Describe Quantify

Literature Review

Excel-Based Models

Stakeholder Outreach

Literature Review

August 2016

September 2017

Today

Abt Associates | pg 5

Results

Identify Describe Quantify

Literature Review

Excel-Based Models

Stakeholder Outreach

Literature Review

Abt Associates | pg 6

Results

• Reactive Power Losses • Transformer Heating • Relay Misoperation • Power Imbalances • Loss of Precision Timing

• Communication • Navigation • Human Exposure • Avionic Upsets

• Cumulative Dose • Novel Anomalies • Link Disruptions • Loss of Altitude • Loss of Orientation

• Loss of Lock • Ranging Errors

17 Different Physical Impacts Across 4 Sectors

Abt Associates | pg 7

Results

Defensive Investments

Before Event After Event

Mitigating Actions

Asset Damage

Service Interruptions

Human Health

Time

SWx Event 5 Different Types of Social & Economic Costs

Abt Associates | pg 8

Results

Defensive Investments

Before Event After Event

Mitigating Actions

Asset Damage

Service Interruptions

Human Health

Time

SWx Event

Data & Research

Forecasts Nowcasts Current Observations

Abt Associates | pg 9

Results

Identify Describe Quantify

Literature Review

Excel-Based Models

Stakeholder Outreach

Literature Review

• 17 Different Physical Impacts Across 4 Sectors

• 5 Different Types of Social & Economic Costs

Abt Associates | pg 10

Results Social & Economic Costs

Defensive Investments

Mitigating Actions

Asset Damage

Service Interruptions

Health Effects

Phys

ical

Impa

cts t

o Se

ctor

s

Communications Navigations

Human Exposure Avionic Upsets

Cumulative Dose Novel Anomalies

Link Disruptions

Loss of Altitude Loss of Orientation

Reactive Power

Transformer Heating

Relay Mis-operation

Power Imbalances

Generator Tripping

Loss of Lock

Ranging Errors

Abt Associates | pg 11

Next Steps

Identify Describe Quantify

Literature Review

Excel-Based Models

Stakeholder Outreach

Literature Review

Abt Associates | pg 12

Next Steps

Conceptual Model

Social & Economic Costs

SWx Event

Physical Impacts

(Risk Parameters)

Abt Associates | pg 13

Next Steps

Conceptual Model

Social & Economic Costs

SWx Event

Physical Impacts

(Risk Parameters)

Abt Associates | pg 14

Next Steps

Conceptual Model

Social & Economic Costs

SWx Event

Physical Impacts

(Risk Parameters)

Asset Damage

Cumulative Dose Novel Anomalies Link Disruptions Loss of Altitude

Loss of Orientation

Abt Associates | pg 15

Next Steps

• What are the cost of moderate & extreme storms? • What physical impacts are the most costly? • Which social & economic costs are the largest? • How do SWPC products & services reduce costs?

Abt Associates | pg 16

Thank you

Stacey_Worman@abtassoc.com