the social network perspective - uc santa barbara
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Center for Computational Analysis of Social and Organizational Systems
http://www.casos.cs.cmu.edu/
The Social Network Perspective
Prof. Kathleen M. Carleykathleen.carley@cs.cmu.edu
Network Science - Connecting the Dots and Trails to Predict and Explain Behavior
2Dec 13, 2010 Copyright © 2010 Kathleen M. Carley, CASOS, ISR, SCS, CMU
What is a Network?
Ties Between Nodes (links)• Who do you like or respect?• Transfer of resources• Authority lines• Association or affiliation • Alliance• Substitution• Precedence• Proximity
Nodes• People• Units of action• Coalition partners• Departments • Resources • Ideas or Skills• Events• Nation-states
Networks are ubiquitous
3Dec 13, 2010 Copyright © 2010 Kathleen M. Carley, CASOS, ISR, SCS, CMU
We pull out – the Meta-Network
WHO:People,Teams
Organizations
WHAT:TasksEvents
WHY:Beliefs
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Baseline
Without TopConservativeWithout Top Liberal
HOW:Resources,Knowledge
Copyright © 2010 Kathleen M. Carley, CASOS, ISR, SCS, CMUDec 13, 2010 4
WHERE:Location
Tools and Workflows Exist and Are Improving for extracting, analyzing, forecasting, …
WEBSCRAPER
Build Network -
Text MiningData
CollectionAnalyze –Statistics
SNA, DNA, Link
Analysis
Assess Change, What if Analysis –Multi-agent
DNA
DyNetML
Know-ledge
Abdul Rahman Yasin
chemicals chemicals bomb, World Trade Center
Al Qaeda operative 26-Feb-93
Dying, Iraq palestinian Achille Lauro cruise ship hijackin
Baghdad 1985
2000Hisham AlHussein
school phone, bomb
Manila, Zamboanga
second secretary
February 13, 2003,October 3,2002
Hamsiraji Ali
phone Abu Sayyaf, AlQaeda
Philippine leader
1980s
brother-in-law
Abu Sayyaf,Iraqis
Iraqi 1991
Name of Individual
Meta-matrix EntityAgent Resource Task-Event Organizati
onLocation Role Attribute
Abu Abbas Hussein masterminding
Green Berets
terrorist
Abu Madja phone Abu Sayyaf, AlQaeda
Philippine leader
Abdurajak Janjalani
Jamal Mohammad Khalifa, Osama binLaden
Hamsiraji Ali
Saddam Hussein
$20,000 Basilan commander
Muwafak al-Ani
business card
bomb Philippines, Manila
terrorists, diplomat
Meta-Network
Copyright © 2010 Kathleen M. Carley, CASOS, ISR, SCS, CMUDec 13, 2010 5
Identify: Who are the Key Players?
Drilling down…
*ORA’s Key Entity Report shows 3 agents critical to
operations.
════════Narrow our focus from
set of interstitial members to small group of leaders.
Copyright © 2010 Kathleen M. Carley, CASOS, ISR, SCS, CMUDec 13, 2010 6
Assess: How are they organized?
FOG (Fuzzy Group Clustering) shows suspicious entities
organized into 5 groups w/shared members.
════════Interstitial members are
likely to contain coordinators & leaders
Copyright © 2010 Kathleen M. Carley, CASOS, ISR, SCS, CMUDec 13, 2010 7
Geo-Enabled Network Analysis
Location as Match Criteria
Visualizing Networks in Space
Trails
Information Loss Tracking
Networks In an Area
8Dec 13, 2010 Copyright © 2010 Kathleen M. Carley, CASOS, ISR, SCS, CMU
Socio-Cultural Data is Every Where
• Unstructured– Text – e.g. interviews, news
articles, blogs, email– Various on-line sources
• Semi-structured– Blogs– Emails– Crowd-sourced
• Structured– Government and corporate
documents– Proceedings
Copyright © 2010 Kathleen M. Carley, CASOS, ISR, SCS, CMUDec 13, 2010 9
• Unstructured– Sudan Tribune Review
• Year – articles• 2003 - 2932 • 2004 - 6943 • 2005 - 3828 • 2006 - 3828 • 2007 - 5815 • 2008 - 9266
– Archive of Lobban writing
• Semi-structured– UN Reports– IDA Study 1796 files
• Structured– African gazateer
Georeferencing news (here, crime) with emphasis on locationMetaCarta, crime around Washington as shown on Google Earth
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MetaCarta Copywrite
Geo-Referencing Challenges
Easy Less Easy
HardVery Hard
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Khartoum escalates conflict in Eastern, Southern Sudan, and Darfur
Sunday 15 January 2006 01:30.By Eric Reeves
Jan 14, 2006 A wide range of recent news and policy reports clearly reveal the consequences of ongoing international failure to confront Khartoum s National Islamic Front, the dominant force in Sudan s nominal
"Government of National Unity." For the NIF continues to escalate a series of militarily-driven crises in Africa s
largest country, all of which imperil the widely heralded north/south peace agreement of a year ago. Physicians
for Human Rights and the International Crisis Group have released particularly important reports: on the aftermath of genocidal violence in Darfur; on the
growing military confrontation in eastern Sudan; and on Khartoum s continuing support for the destabilizing Lord
s Resistance Army in southern Sudan and northern Uganda. Yet other reports suggest that a border war between Chad and Sudan, in areas that are filled with desperate refugees and internally displaced persons,
may break out at any time.
~40% accuracy with gazateers
ORA-Loom TrailsLunch Day 1
Copyright © 2010 Kathleen M. Carley, CASOS, ISR, SCS, CMUDec 13, 2010 13
Each location is a table.
The “unknown” location is the “enter” or “exit”
Most people go to 2 or more tables.
The 5th column shows the most popular region.
Next step: common trails
Visit NetworkLunch Data - Day 1
4 tables are visitedby almost all people(located in middle)
14Dec 13, 2010 Copyright © 2010 Kathleen M. Carley, CASOS, ISR, SCS, CMU
Geo-temporal metric – e.g. following, meeting, hiding
Drug Seizure: Origins to Destinations
Copyright © 2010 Kathleen M. Carley, CASOS, ISR, SCS, CMUDec 13, 2010 15
Drug Seizures
Betweenness
Regular
Spatial
•Louisville•Nashville•Houston•Albuquerque
•Tucson•Atlanta•Louisville•Albuquerque
Copyright © 2010 Kathleen M. Carley, CASOS, ISR, SCS, CMUDec 13, 2010 16
Geo-Network Measures Improve focus
Networks Vary Over Time, And Media Choice has Geo-Relation
17Dec 13, 2010 Copyright © 2010 Kathleen M. Carley, CASOS, ISR, SCS, CMU
Face-to-Face
Are there regular spatial relations?
Timeline
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008Event Darfur
rebellionInternational recognition of Genocide
UNSanctionsAutonomous S. Sudan
Khartoum government and Sudan Liberation Movement sign peace accord
War crimecharges
Increased UN presence
Sudan-Chadaccord
Bashir President
Garang VP DiedS. Sudan President
Taha VP
Kiir S. Sudan President
Copyright © 2010 Kathleen M. Carley, CASOS, ISR, SCS, CMUDec 13, 2010 18
Summary TableYear 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
No of Texts 2932 6943 3828 3828 5815 9266No of Sudan Agents 28 38 33 39 41 39No of Total Agents 138 237 208 217 213 222No of Tribes 33 48 35 47 53 53
No of Sudan Organizations 53 72 62 74 80 79
No of Total Organizations 195 261 254 262 293 311
Density of Sudan Agents 0.044 0.033 0.031 0.028 0.032 0.049Density of All Agents 0.016 0.011 0.01 0.008 0.009 0.013
Density of Tribe Network 0.028 0.038 0.031 0.032 0.025 0.045
Dominant Organization
Sudan Liberation Movement Fur Dinka Dinka Dinka Dinka
Dominant Issue
Ecology, Land Water
Use
LandWaterUse,
IdeologyIdeology, Economy
Ideology, Economy
Economy, Ideology
LandWaterUse,
Economy
Increasing Complexity in Tribal Areas of Conflict
Copyright © 2010 Kathleen M. Carley, CASOS, ISR, SCS, CMUDec 13, 2010
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2003 2008
Water RightsGrazingLand
Administration Politics
Points of Conflict According to the U.N.
Copyright © 2010 Kathleen M. Carley, CASOS, ISR, SCS, CMUDec 13, 2010 21
Van Holt, Johnson, Carley and Lobban - 2009
Water RightsGrazing
Administration Politics
Land
Rapid Ethnographic Assessment Provides Better Picture … but – geo-referencing is har
Are there regular spatial relations?
Within the Sudan at a macro level there is little change
Copyright © 2010 Kathleen M. Carley, CASOS, ISR, SCS, CMUDec 13, 2010 22
Who Connects Disconnected Groups Within the Sudan?
Bashir
Garang
High Betweenness Low Degree
Minnawi
Copyright © 2010 Kathleen M. Carley, CASOS, ISR, SCS, CMUDec 13, 2010 23
Who is the Emergent Leader Within the Sudan
BashirGarang
TahaKiir
Minnawi
Copyright © 2010 Kathleen M. Carley, CASOS, ISR, SCS, CMUDec 13, 2010 24
Basic Tribal Structure
Copyright © 2010 Kathleen M. Carley, CASOS, ISR, SCS, CMUDec 13, 2010 25
Sudan Tribal Network - Hereditary Tribal Network in the News
Linking Ties to Borders and Areas - Difficult
The Network of American Cities
Copyright © 2010 Kathleen M. Carley, CASOS, ISR, SCS, CMUDec 13, 2010 26
Media Differences by U.S. cities
%Change in Behavior
Copyright © 2010 Kathleen M. Carley, CASOS, ISR, SCS, CMUDec 13, 2010 28
Different Cities have different networks leading to differen diffusion patterns and so distribution of results
Summary & Challenges
• Summary– Sufficient Metrics & Visualizations exist– Geo-DNA tools exist
• But they need to be speeded up and size reduced
• Challenges– “Drill down” find information of interest from a combined spatial
temporal network perspective– Location identification in texts– Geo-temporal network forecasts
Copyright © 2010 Kathleen M. Carley, CASOS, ISR, SCS, CMUDec 13, 2010 29
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