the tax burden under labour
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The tax burden under Labour
Carl Emmerson
Christine Frayne
Gemma Tetlow
© Institute for Fiscal Studies 2005
Revenues since 1970–71
30.0
32.0
34.0
36.0
38.0
40.0
42.0
44.0
46.0
48.0
50.0
70
–7
1
75
–7
6
80
–8
1
85
–8
6
90
–9
1
95
–9
6
00
–0
1
05
–0
6
09
–1
0
Financial year
Pe
rce
nta
ge
of
na
tion
al i
nco
me
Net taxes and national insurance contributions
Current receipts
© Institute for Fiscal Studies 2005
National income ‘after tax’
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
76–7
7
80–8
1
85–8
6
90–9
1
95–9
6
00–0
1
05–0
6
09–1
0
Five year average ending
Rea
l p
erce
nta
ge
gro
wth
Current receipts
National income
National income minus current receipts
© Institute for Fiscal Studies 2005
Revenue and national income growth by parliament
Annualised average real increase (%) in:
Current receipts National income National income minus current
receipts
Conservatives 18 years 1.7 2.1 2.4
1st Labour parliament
2nd Labour parliament
Labour 8 years so far
Labour current plans
© Institute for Fiscal Studies 2005
Revenue and national income growth by parliament
Annualised average real increase (%) in:
Current receipts National income National income minus current
receipts
Conservatives 18 years 1.7 2.1 2.4
1st Labour parliament 5.0 3.3 2.3
2nd Labour parliament
Labour 8 years so far
Labour current plans
© Institute for Fiscal Studies 2005
Revenue and national income growth by parliament
Annualised average real increase (%) in:
Current receipts National income National income minus current
receipts
Conservatives 18 years 1.7 2.1 2.4
1st Labour parliament 5.0 3.3 2.3
2nd Labour parliament 2.3 2.5 2.6
Labour 8 years so far
Labour current plans
© Institute for Fiscal Studies 2005
Revenue and national income growth by parliament
Annualised average real increase (%) in:
Current receipts National income National income minus current
receipts
Conservatives 18 years 1.7 2.1 2.4
1st Labour parliament 5.0 3.3 2.3
2nd Labour parliament 2.3 2.5 2.6
Labour 8 years so far 3.3 2.8 2.6
Labour current plans
© Institute for Fiscal Studies 2005
Revenue and national income growth by parliament
Annualised average real increase (%) in:
Current receipts National income National income minus current
receipts
Conservatives 18 years 1.7 2.1 2.4
1st Labour parliament 5.0 3.3 2.3
2nd Labour parliament 2.3 2.5 2.6
Labour 8 years so far 3.3 2.8 2.6
Labour current plans 3.5 2.4 1.7
© Institute for Fiscal Studies 2005
Contributions to changes in government revenue
Labour’s 1st term Labour’s 2nd term Labour to date
% GDP Cash % GDP Cash % GDP Cash
Conservative
Labour 1st term
Labour 2nd term
All announcements
Fiscal drag
Economic cycle
Other factors
Total 1.6% £19.6bn
© Institute for Fiscal Studies 2005
Contributions to changes in government revenue
Labour’s 1st term Labour’s 2nd term Labour to date
% GDP Cash % GDP Cash % GDP Cash
Conservative 0.7% £9.1bn
Labour 1st term –0.2% –£2.3bn
Labour 2nd term
All announcements
Fiscal drag
Economic cycle
Other factors
Total 1.6% £19.6bn
© Institute for Fiscal Studies 2005
Contributions to changes in government revenue
Labour’s 1st term Labour’s 2nd term Labour to date
% GDP Cash % GDP Cash % GDP Cash
Conservative 0.7% £9.1bn
Labour 1st term –0.2% –£2.3bn
Labour 2nd term
All announcements 0.5% £6.8bn
Fiscal drag
Economic cycle
Other factors
Total 1.6% £19.6bn
© Institute for Fiscal Studies 2005
Contributions to changes in government revenue
Labour’s 1st term Labour’s 2nd term Labour to date
% GDP Cash % GDP Cash % GDP Cash
Conservative 0.7% £9.1bn
Labour 1st term –0.2% –£2.3bn
Labour 2nd term
All announcements 0.5% £6.8bn
Fiscal drag 1.0% £12.4bn
Economic cycle 0.4% £5.1bn
Other factors –0.3% –£4.7bn
Total 1.6% £19.6bn
© Institute for Fiscal Studies 2005
Contributions to changes in government revenue
Labour’s 1st term Labour’s 2nd term Labour to date
% GDP Cash % GDP Cash % GDP Cash
Conservative 0.7% £9.1bn
Labour 1st term –0.2% –£2.3bn
Labour 2nd term
All announcements 0.5% £6.8bn
Fiscal drag 1.0% £12.4bn
Economic cycle 0.4% £5.1bn
Other factors –0.3% –£4.7bn
Total 1.6% £19.6bn 0.6% £6.9bn
© Institute for Fiscal Studies 2005
Contributions to changes in government revenue
Labour’s 1st term Labour’s 2nd term Labour to date
% GDP Cash % GDP Cash % GDP Cash
Conservative 0.7% £9.1bn 0.0% 0.0
Labour 1st term –0.2% –£2.3bn 0.0% –£0.5bn
Labour 2nd term 0.9% £11.6bn
All announcements 0.5% £6.8bn
Fiscal drag 1.0% £12.4bn
Economic cycle 0.4% £5.1bn
Other factors –0.3% –£4.7bn
Total 1.6% £19.6bn 0.6% £6.9bn
© Institute for Fiscal Studies 2005
Contributions to changes in government revenue
Labour’s 1st term Labour’s 2nd term Labour to date
% GDP Cash % GDP Cash % GDP Cash
Conservative 0.7% £9.1bn 0.0% 0.0
Labour 1st term –0.2% –£2.3bn 0.0% –£0.5bn
Labour 2nd term 0.9% £11.6bn
All announcements 0.5% £6.8bn 0.9% £11.1bn
Fiscal drag 1.0% £12.4bn 0.8% £9.6bn
Economic cycle 0.4% £5.1bn –0.3% –£3.8bn
Other factors –0.3% –£4.7bn –0.8% –£10.1bn
Total 1.6% £19.6bn 0.6% £6.9bn
© Institute for Fiscal Studies 2005
Contributions to changes in government revenue
Labour’s 1st term Labour’s 2nd term Labour to date
% GDP Cash % GDP Cash % GDP Cash
Conservative 0.7% £9.1bn 0.0% 0.0 0.7% £9.1bn
Labour 1st term –0.2% –£2.3bn 0.0% –£0.5bn –0.2% –£2.8bn
Labour 2nd term 0.9% £11.6bn 0.9% £11.6bn
All announcements 0.5% £6.8bn 0.9% £11.1bn 1.4% £18.0bn
Fiscal drag 1.0% £12.4bn 0.8% £9.6bn 1.8% £22.0bn
Economic cycle 0.4% £5.1bn –0.3% –£3.8bn 0.1% £1.3bn
Other factors –0.3% –£4.7bn –0.8% –£10.1bn –1.2% –£14.9bn
Total 1.6% £19.6bn 0.6% £6.9bn 2.1% £26.4bn
© Institute for Fiscal Studies 2005
Cumulative budgetary changes
-4.0-2.00.02.04.06.08.0
10.012.014.0
19
97
Bu
dg
et
19
98
Bu
dg
et
19
99
Bu
dg
et
19
99
Pre
-Bu
dg
et
Re
po
rt
20
00
Bu
dg
et
20
00
Pre
-Bu
dg
et
Re
po
rt
20
01
Bu
dg
et
20
01
Pre
-Bu
dg
et
Re
po
rt
20
02
Bu
dg
et
20
02
Pre
-Bu
dg
et
Re
po
rt
20
03
Bu
dg
et
20
03
Pre
-Bu
dg
et
Re
po
rt
20
04
Bu
dg
et
20
04
Pre
-Bu
dg
et
Re
po
rt
£ b
illi
on
(20
05-0
6)
Election 2001
© Institute for Fiscal Studies 2005
So to conclude
• Revenues up 3.3% per year over 8 years• Faster increase going forward• Lower economic growth expected• … and without introducing new measures• Policy measures yielded 2/3 of increase so far• More might be needed in the future?
The tax burden under Labour
Carl Emmerson
Christine Frayne
Gemma Tetlow
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