the thai pv market development - german-thai...

Thai-German Tecgnology Conference, Grid-Connected Photovoltaics in Thailand, Bangkok, Thailand, 13th October 2014.

The Thai PV Market Development from Industry’s Perspective

Professor Dr. Dusit Kruangam,

Chairman Thai Photovoltaic Industries Association

(TPVA) E-Mail: dusit@thaisolarfuture.com

65%

11%

0

1 4%7 3%

Natural Gas

Hydro

Lignite

Import

Share of Power Generation by Fuel Type Jan - May 2014

Coal Renewable

Oil

EPPO

Total 33,379 MW

PDP 2010 (Ver.3) (2010-2030) PDP 2015 (2015-2035)

Capacity today =32,395 MW

New Capacity =+55,130 MW

Less Retired =-16,839 MW

Total in 2030 =70,686 MW

Technology Plan (MW)

Result in 2014 (MW)

Solar 3,000 1,236

Wind 1,800 251

Minihydro 324 135

Biogas Giant Grass

600+ 3,000

290 -

Biomass 4,800 2,366

Waste 400 47

Others 3 -

Total 13,927 4,325

AEDP 2010 (2010-2030) AEDP 2015 (2015-2035)

To be announced in Dec. 2014

To be announced in Dec. 2014

RE

Hydro

GAS

COAL

LIGNITE

NUCLEAR

70,686 MW by the Year 2030 Million kWh

System Application Timing

Program Size (kWp)

Price (Baht/kWh)

Period (Year)

Total Target (MWp)

Solar Farm (Mainly) Closed Adder <10,000 8.00 6.50

10 1,424

Solar Farm* End 2014 FIT <10,000 5.66 25 576

Solar Rooftop (Residential)

Closed FIT <=10 6.96 25 30

Solar Rooftop (Comm) Closed 10-250 6.55 25 100

Solar Rooftop (Comm) Closed 250-1,000 6.16 25

Solar Roof (Residential)*

End 2014 FIT <=10 6.85 25 70

Solar Farm* (Agriculture Cooperatives, Gov. Officers)

End 2014 FIT <=50,000 5.66 800

Total 3,000

Breakdown of the 3,000 MW Solar Program

Total 11.50 Baht

Adder 8 Baht

Basic Tariff 5.50 ? Baht

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 … Year

Adder System for Solar Farms, Roofs in Thailand (Announced in 2006)

Basic Tariff 3.5 Baht

Bah

t/kW

h Total 13 Baht ?

Adder 8 Baht

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 .. 2038

Year

Bah

t/kW

h

Total 6.96 Baht (House <10 kWp)

Total 6.55 Baht (Bldg. 10-250 kWp)

Total 6.16 Baht (Bldg. 250-1,000 kWp)

Feed-in Tariff Price for Solar PV Rooftop 25 Years

1.65 MWp

5.6 MWp

0.24 MWp

0.33 MWp 3 .2 kWp

73 MWp

6 MWp

Thailand is the leading country for investment and construction of solar farms and solar rooftops in

South East Asia Countries (ASEAN).

0.630 MWp Solar Farm, Ekarat Engineering PCL.,Pracheenburee. (COD done in 2010).

0.630 MWp Solar Farm, Ekarat Engineering PCL.,Pracheenburee. (COD done in 2010).

1.65 MWp, Solar Park Co., Ltd., Lopburi. (COD done in 2011)

0.55 MWp x 10 = 5.5 MWp, Thai Solar Plant Group, Saraburi. (COD done in 2012)

0.55 MWp x 10 = 5.5 MWp, Thai Solar Plant Group, Saraburi. (COD done in 2012)

1.0 MWp, Chiangrai North Wood Co., Ltd. , Lampang. (COD done in May 2012)

1.0 MWp, PP Solar Power Co., Ltd. , Nongkhai. (to COD, End 2012)

10.0 MWp, Soreq Co., Ltd. , Sukhothai. (COD 2013)

Solar PV Rooftop and Feed-in Tariff Meter

PV Module

Inverter AC Circuit Breakers, AC Surge Protector

FIT Meter

Internet linking to Mobile Phone, computer

Approved by NEPC, 15th Aug 2014 Newly Proposed by TPVA

Year (B.E.) Adder / FIT Solar Roof FIT

Residential Solar Roof FIT Commercial

Solar Agriculture

Coop

Net Metering

Residential

Net Metering Commercial

Annual Installation

Cummulative Installation

<90 MWp <10 kWp 10-1,000 kWp < 5 MWp <10 kWp >10 kWp Sell 100% Sell 100% Sell 100% Sell 100% Sell Excess Sell Excess MWp MWp MWp MWp MWp MWp MWp MWp

2557 (2014) 1,424 30 0 0 1,454 1,454 2558 (2015) 576 70 100 800 5 10 1,561 3,015 2559 (2016) 500 100 500 10 20 1,130 4,145 2560 (2017) 500 100 500 15 50 1,165 5,310 2561 (2018) 500 100 500 20 50 1,170 6,480 2562 (2019) 500 100 400 50 100 1,150 7,630 2563 (2020) 500 100 100 700 8,330 2564 (2021) 500 100 150 750 9,080 2565 (2022) 500 100 200 800 9,880 2566 (2023) 500 100 250 850 10,730 2567 (2024) 500 100 300 900 11,630 2568 (2025) 500 100 350 950 12,580 2569 (2026) 100 400 500 13,080 2570 (2027) 100 450 550 13,630 2571 (2028) 100 500 600 14,230 2572 (2029) 100 550 650 14,880 2573 (2030) 100 600 700 15,580 2574 (2031) 100 650 750 16,330 2575 (2032) 100 700 800 17,130 2576 (2033) 100 750 850 17,980

2577 (20234) 100 800 900 18,880 2578 (2035) 100 1020 1,120 20,000

Total 2,000 100 1,00 800 1,700 8,000 20,000

Existing PV Solar Plan of Thailand AEDP 2010

Farm Roof Roof Farm

Approved by NEPC, 15th Aug 2014 Newly Proposed by TPVA

Year (B.E.) Adder / FIT Solar Roof FIT

Residential Solar Roof FIT Commercial

Solar Agriculture

Coop

Net Metering

Residential

Net Metering Commercial

Annual Installation

Cummulative Installation

<90 MWp <10 kWp 10-1,000 kWp < 5 MWp <10 kWp >10 kWp Sell 100% Sell 100% Sell 100% Sell 100% Sell Excess Sell Excess MWp MWp MWp MWp MWp MWp MWp MWp

2557 (2014) 1,424 30 0 0 1,454 1,454 2558 (2015) 576 70 100 800 5 10 1,561 3,015 2559 (2016) 500 100 500 10 20 1,130 4,145 2560 (2017) 500 100 500 15 50 1,165 5,310 2561 (2018) 500 100 500 20 50 1,170 6,480 2562 (2019) 500 100 400 50 100 1,150 7,630 2563 (2020) 500 100 100 700 8,330 2564 (2021) 500 100 150 750 9,080 2565 (2022) 500 100 200 800 9,880 2566 (2023) 500 100 250 850 10,730 2567 (2024) 500 100 300 900 11,630 2568 (2025) 500 100 350 950 12,580 2569 (2026) 100 400 500 13,080 2570 (2027) 100 450 550 13,630 2571 (2028) 100 500 600 14,230 2572 (2029) 100 550 650 14,880 2573 (2030) 100 600 700 15,580 2574 (2031) 100 650 750 16,330 2575 (2032) 100 700 800 17,130 2576 (2033) 100 750 850 17,980

2577 (20234) 100 800 900 18,880 2578 (2035) 100 1020 1,120 20,000

Total 7,000 500 2,000 800 1,700 8,000 20,000

Perpective of Solar PV of Thailand Proposed by TPVA = 20,000 MWp during 2015-2035

Farm Roof Roof Farm Roof Roof

Year (B.E.) Year Cummulative

Installation Electricity Generation Per Year by

Solar Estimation of Electricity Generation Per Year

by Thailand

Ratio of ElectricityGenerated by Solar and Total Nation

MWp kWh kWh %

2557 2014 1,454 2,122,840,000 ############### 1.25% 2558 2015 3,015 4,401,900,000 ############### 2.45% 2559 2016 4,145 6,051,700,000 ############### 3.19% 2560 2017 5,310 7,752,600,000 ############### 3.88% 2561 2018 6,480 9,460,800,000 ############### 4.51% 2562 2019 7,630 ############## ############### 5.06% 2563 2020 8,330 ############## ############### 5.29% 2564 2021 9,080 ############## ############### 5.52% 2565 2022 9,880 ############## ############### 5.77% 2566 2023 10,730 ############## ############### 6.03% 2567 2024 11,630 ############## ############### 6.29% 2568 2025 12,580 ############## ############### 6.56% 2569 2026 13,080 ############## ############### 6.59% 2570 2027 13,630 ############## ############### 6.63% 2571 2028 14,230 ############## ############### 6.70% 2572 2029 14,880 ############## ############### 6.79% 2573 2030 15,580 ############## ############### 6.89% 2574 2031 16,330 ############## ############### 7.01% 2575 2032 17,130 ############## ############### 7.15% 2576 2033 17,980 ############## ############### 7.29% 2577 2034 18,880 ############## ############### 7.45% 2578 2035 20,000 ############## ############### 7.68% Total

Equivalent QTY of House (5kWp)

Solar Roof

Residential

Commercial

On Grid (no Batteries)

Off Grid (Batteries)

Sell Electricity (On Grid)

Solar Roof

Solar Farm

InvestorMent

Self Consumption of Electricity

Self + Sell Electricity (On Grid)

Net metering)

Feed-in Tariff Program Adder Program Solar Roof

Quality Assurance (Standardization)

Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC)

DEDE

EGAT, MEA, PEA

Engineer Council

TISI

TPVA

Cells and Modules Manufacturers in Thailand

Company Product Capacity Machine Investment Cost Production Location

(MW) (Million Baht) Year

Solartron Plc. Cryst. Si Cells 75 Japan 3,000 2013 NakornraschasrimaCryst. Si Modules 75 germany 500 2004 Nakornraschasrima

Bangkok Solar A-Si Cells/Modules 5 Hungary 500 2004 ChaseongsaoA-Si Cells/Modules 10 USA 1,300 2007 ChaseongsaoA-Si Cells/Modules 15 USA 2,000 Dec-07 Chaseongsao

Sharp (Thailand) Cryst. Si Modules 7 Japan 2005 NakornpathomThai Agencies Cryst. Si Modules 5 Japan 50 2005 Ayudthaya

A-Si Modules 5 Japan 50 2005 AyudthayaEkarat Solar Cryst. Si Modules 15 Japan 100 2005 Chaseongsao

Cryst. Si Cells 25 Germany 1,500 2006 RayongFull Solar Cryst. Si Modules 2014***** Cryst. Si Modules 2015Total 237 9,000

Inverter Manufacturers in Thailand

Brand Original Technology 1. Leonics Thailand 2. Delta Electronics Taiwan, Germany 3. Tabuchi Japan