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The Thirty Years’ History of NISTEP
November 1st, 2018
Hideyuki TsunodaDeputy Director General
National Institute of Science and Technology Policy (NISTEP), Japan
Contents
• Outline of NISTEP
• Main Researches
• International Conferences
• The Researchers with Nice Step
Jul 1988 The National Institute of Science and Technology Policy was established (restructured from the National Institute of Resources).
Jan 2001
The Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT) was formed due to administrative reform. NISTEP became an affiliated research institute within MEXT. The Science and Technology Foresight Center was established as a part of NISTEP.
Jul 2001 Relocated from Common Building for Government Offices at Nagata-cho to the Postal Services Agency Building at Kasumigaseki.
Jan 2004 Relocated to the Ministry of Education, Culture, Science, and Technology Building (Marunouchi, Chiyoda-ku).
Apr 2006 The Research Unit for Science and Technology Analysis and Indicators was established.
Jan 2008 Relocated to the Central Government Building No. 7 East Wing (Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-ku).
Jul 2013 Reorganized the structure of NISTEP (Japanese organization name).
Apr 2016 Reorganized the structure of NISTEP (Group restructuring).
Jul 2018 NISTEP celebrated its 30th anniversary.3
History of NISTEP
Activities of NISTEP
4
Mission of NISTEP To forecast future policy issues and investigate them through autonomous research To carry out research in response to requests from administrative agency To provide data that forms the basis of research and play key cooperative and
contributing roles with other institutions and researchers
<Key research themes>1.Collection and analysis of basic information of Science and Technology Policy 2.Issue-based research on human resources for Science, Technology and Innovation
and industry-academia collaboration 3.Research on clarifying innovation process4.Science and Technology foresight
Provision of evidence-based data for policy making to governmental agenciesContribution to make administrative strategy of research institutes
The National Institute of Science and Technology Policy (NISTEP) is a think tank on science and technology (S&T) policy within the direct jurisdiction of the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT) in accordance with the National Government Organization Act in order to be engaged in the government’s S&T policy planning processes.
Mission of NISTEP
Outline of NISTEP
5
Director GeneralDr. Tsuboi
Deputy Director GeneralMr. Tsunoda
1st Theory-Oriented Research Group Leader: Dr. Ijichi
2nd Theory-Oriented Research Group Leader: Mr. Tomizawa
1st Policy-Oriented Research Group Leader: Ms. Miki
2nd Policy-Oriented Research Group Leader: Mr. Horita
Science and Technology Foresight Center Leader: Ms. Yokoo
Research Unit for Science and Technology Analysis and IndicatorsLeader: Dr. Igami
Research Support Sectors
Fundamental surveys and research on effects of S&T on the economy and society
Fundamental surveys and research on R&D promotion systems of S&T
Issue-based surveys and research on conditions for promotion of S&T,such as personnel, relationship of S&T with people and society
Issue-based surveys and research on industry-academia collaboration, academic start-ups, regional innovation
Theoretical / Empirical surveys and research on S&T trends and foresight
Theoretical / Empirical analysis and research on S&T activities of S&T policies
・General Affairs Division Director, Mr. Kobayashi・Planning Division Director, Mr. Ujihara
※Appointed Dr. Akaike as a senior fellow for cross-sectional work of NISTEP
BudgetApprox. 8 Hundred Million Yen ($7.3M US) Staff: 45+ (about 35 Research Staff incl. Visiting Researcher)
Organization and Personnel[ *As of FY 2018 ]
6
Number of Issue Reports(As of July 2018)
NISTEP REPORT Results of research, survey analysis, etc., and policy proposals based on these, to announce to the outside to widely ask the society.【177 volumes in total】
RESEARCH MATERIALS Materials collected as results of research, survey analysis, etc. 【272 volumes in total】
NISTEP NOTE Results, data, etc. regarding "Science of Science, Technology and Innovation Policy", and obtained in the process of the construction of data and information infrastructure etc.【23 volumes in total】
DISCUSSION PAPER Research results, survey analysis, etc. as outlined by the authors, mainly to listen opinions outside the company.【159 volumes in total】
POLICY STUDY Research results, survey analysis, etc., as an opinion of the author, summarized policy proposals, theoretically and systematically summarizes new concepts, methodology, etc. for policy analysis and formation. 【15 volumes in total】
STI Horizon Quarterly magazine on information of Science Technology and Innovation Policy especially Science and Technology’s new trends 【11 volumes in total】
Science & Technology Trends (former “STI Horizon”)Summarizing noteworthy of science and technology innovation policies and advanced scientific
technological trends of Issue achievement type, etc. 【151 volumes in total】
©NISTEP 2018. All Rights Reserved
0
200
400
600
800
NISTEP REPORT
調査資料
DISCUSSION PAPER
POLICY STUDY
科学技術動向・STI Horizon
NISTEP NOTE(政策のための科学)
7
19881989
19901991
19921993
19941995
19961997
19981999
20002001
20022003
20042005
20062007
20082009
20102011
20122013
20142015
20162017
2018
’ Jul 1988, NISTEP was established(restructured from the National Institute of Resources) )
’Jan 1999, Institution evaluation
’ Jul 1998, NISTEP celebrated its 10th anniversary.
’ Jan 2001 NISTEP became an affiliated research institute within MEXT. The Science and Technology Foresight Center was established as a part of NISTEP.
’ Jul 2001, Relocated from Common Building for Government Offices at Nagata-cho to The Postal Services Agency Building at Kasumigaseki.
’ Jan 2004, Relocated to the Ministry of Education, Culture, Science, and Technology Building (Marunouchi, Chiyoda-ku).
’ Apr 2006, The Research Unit for Science and Technology Analysis and Indicators was established.
’ Jan 2008, Relocated to the Central Government Building No. 7 East Wing (Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-ku).
’ Jul 2013 Reorganized the structure of NISTEP (Japanese organization name).
’ Apr 2016 Reorganized the structure of NISTEP (Group restructuring).
’Jan 2006, The 1st Trilateral Science and Technology Policy Seminar
’Dec.2005, The 1st Researchers with Nice Step(Part 1)
’July 2008, NISTEP celebrated its 20th anniversary.
’ Jul 2018 NISTEP celebrated its 30th anniversary.
(冊)
Output of NISTEP
NISTEP REPORT
RESEARCH MATERIALS
NISTEP NOTESTI Horizon Science & Technology Trends ・
DISCUSSION PAPER
POLICY STUDY
8
Cooperation with external parties(As of FY2017)
Domestic collaborating organizations
The National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS) Japan Science & Technology Agency (JST) The Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI) Graduate School and School of Engineering, Osaka University Graduate School of Information Science and Technology, University of Tokyo The Center for Science, Technology and Innovation Policy Studies (CSTIPS), Kyushu University Comprehensive Research Organization, Waseda University
USA National Science Foundation (NSF), George Mason University, Georgia Institute of Technology,Massachusetts Institute of Technology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
UK University of Manchester France General Department of Research and Technology(DGRT) Germany Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI Finland Business Finland (an innovation funding agency) Russia National Research University Higher School of Economics (HSE) China Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CASISD),
Chinese Academy of Science and Technology for Development (CASTED) South Korea Korea Institute of S&T Evaluation and Planning (KISTEP),
Science and Technology Policy Institute (STEPI) Turkey Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAC) Egypt Academy of Scientific Research and Technology (ASRT)
Overseas collaborating organizations
9
Knowledge / opinions from outside experts
The Science and Technology Foresight Center operates a network comprised of some 2,000 experts for use in S&T-related questionnaire surveys and other activities gathering their insights and interpretations concerning trends in the field.
Application example: Research results are utilized for Science and Technology White Papers
To track the status of S&T and innovation system in Japan by means of the same questionnaire to the same respondents every year.
RESPONDENTSUniversity/Public Research Institution group(about 2,100 people)
Presidents of universities, inter-university research institute corporation, and public research institutions, managers responsible for R&D planning (directors of planning/university research administrators divisions), researchers (recommended by heads of departments), and PIs of big research development projects (SIP, ImPACT, COI).
Innovation overview group (about 700 people)Experts in industry and mediators between research development and innovation.
Opinions of the respondentsAbout 8,000 comments from surveys in 2016 and 2017 (about 920,000 Japanese words)
NISTEP TEITEN survey
Science and Technology expert network
Contents
• Outline of NISTEP
• Main Researches
• International Conferences
• The Researchers with Nice Step
11
Main Researches ・Science and Technology Indicators
・Benchmarking Scientific Research
・Science Map
・NISTEP Experts Survey on Japanese S&T and Innovation System (NISTEP TEITEN survey)
・Japan Graduates Database (JGRAD)
・Japan Doctoral Human Resource Profiling : JD-Pro
・The 2015 Survey on Postdoctoral Fellows Regarding Employment and Careers in Japan<Governmental Statistics>
・Japanese National Innovation Survey <Governmental Statistics>
・Survey on Research Activities of Private Corporations<Governmental Statistics>
・Regional Science and Technology Indicators
・Science and Technology Foresight
©NISTEP 2018. All Rights Reserved 12
Characteristics of NISTEP research
Quantitative(Objective / Autonomous)
Qualitative(Subjective / Participatory)
Retrospective
Bibliometrics & Statistical Survey
Public Opinion Poll
QuestionnaireSurvey
Cohort Study / Tracking
Database Tracking
Case Study
Focus Group InterviewBenchmarking Analysis
Science Map
Doctoral Human Resource Profiling
J-GRAD
TEITEN Survey
Internet Survey on S&T Public Awareness
Success Case Study of Industry-Academy Collaboration
Horizon Scanning thru Big Data Crawling
Planning led by Expert Panel
Participatory Workshop for
Scenario Planning
Strategic Planning / Target-Setting for Funding
Delphi Survey
KIDSASHI
Target R&D Area Setting for JST / AMED
Regional Foresight Workshops
Establishing Univ. Start-ups DB
Traditional S&T Foresight
Prospective
©NISTEP 2018. All Rights Reserved
• Published for the first time in 1991. This survey is published every year since 2005.• Science and technology activities are classified into five categories: R&D Expenditure, R&D Personnel,
Higher Education and S&T personnel, Output of R&D, and Science, Technology, and Innovation.• Status of Japanese science and technology activities are shown with approximately 160 indicators.• Chronological data since 1980’s (in the oldest case) is shown for grasping a long-term situation of Japan and
benchmarking countries.• In total, 21 indicators were newly introduced or visualization methods were revised in 2018 edition.
Science and Technology Indicators
13
History of Science and Technology Indicators
The firstreport
The latest report
Changes in total R&D expenditure in the selected countries
Examples of indicators for research and development expensesBusiness enterprise R&D expenditure by industry in the selected countries
Science and Technology Indicators
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
198183 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15
R&D
expe
nditu
re (n
omina
l valu
es)
2016 Year
Japan
Japan(estimated by OECD)U.S.
Germany
France
U.K.
China
Korea
EU-15
EU-28
¥ trillions
5.88.2
0.63.0
2.5
1.2 1.0
5.6 6.0
7.1 7.4
5.9 5.1
15
10
5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0809101112131415
U.S.Year
Manu
fact
urin
gN
on-m
anufa
ctu
ring
¥ trillions
0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.20.9 0.9
0.3 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0
0.8 0.8 0.5 0.5
1.3 1.5 0.5 0.5
3.8 2.9
0.9 1.0
0.4 0.5 1.9
3.0
2.9 3.6
2.5 3.1
0.7 0.7 0.3 0.5
0.6
0.9
6
4
2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0809101112131415 0809101112131415 0809101112131415 0809101112131415 0809101112131415
Japan Germany France U.K. Korea
Year
Manufacturing nec, other
Motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers and other transport equipmentElectrical equipment
Computer, electronic and optical products
Pharmaceuticals, medicinal chemical and botanical products
Chemicals and chemical products
Non-manufacturing nec, other
Services nec, other
Professional, scientific and technical activities
Financial and insurance activities
Information and communication
¥ trillions
(Source) Science and technology indicators 2018, Research Material-274, published on August 2018 14
15
Science and Technology IndicatorsExamples of indicators of research human resources
The number of female researchers and their ratio against the total number of researchers (HC)
Changes in the number of researchers in the selected countries
Shares of female researchers of the selected countries by sector
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1981 84 87 90 93 96 99 02 05 08 11 14 2017
Numb
er of
rese
arch
ers
10,000 people
year
Japan*Japan(FTE)Japan(HC)U.S.GermanyFranceU.K.ChinaKoreaEU-15EU-28
5.9
15.7
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1981 84 87 90 93 96 99 02 05 08 11 14 2017
Ratio
again
st the
Tota
l
Numb
er of
Fem
ale re
sear
cher
s
Number of researchers with doctorates
Female researcher
Year
10,000 people %
9.1 14.7
20.3 21.1 15.5
18.2
35.4 36.3 37.8
25.5 26.6
38.7 36.4
45.3
30.4
15.1
42.1 48.7
28.6
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
(2017) (2015) (2015) (2015) (2016)
Japan Germany France U.K. Korea
% Business enterprises Public organizationsUniversities and colleges Non-profit institutionsPublic organizations and Non-profit institutions
(Source) Science and technology indicators 2018, Research Material-274, published on August 2018
Science and Technology Indicators
Examples of indicators of higher education and science and technology human resources
International comparison of academic degree recipients per one million of population
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
08 17 08 15 08 14 08 14 08 14 08 17 08 14Japan U.S. Germany France U.K. Korea China
Bach
elor's
degr
ee ho
lders
per o
ne m
illion
of
the po
pulat
ion
Field classificationunknown
Others
Natural science andengineering
Social sciences andhumanities
FY
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
08 14 08 15 08 14 08 14 08 14 08 17 08 14Japan U.S. Germany France U.K. Korea China
Maste
r's de
gree
holde
rs pe
r one
milli
on of
the
popu
lation
Field classificationunknown
Others
Natural science andengineering
Social sciences andhumanities
FY
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
08 14 08 14 08 14 08 14 08 14 08 17 08 14Japan U.S. Germany France U.K. Korea China
Docto
ral d
egre
e hold
ers p
er on
e milli
on o
fthe
popu
lation
Field classificationunknown
Others
Natural scienceand engineering
Social sciencesand humanities
FY
(B) New master's degree recipients (C) New doctoral degree recipients(A) New bachelor's degree recipients
• New bachelor's degree recipients are largest in "humanities and social sciences" in many of the countries concerned.
• The number of doctoral degree recipients in "natural sciences" is highest in all the selected countries.
• In comparison with 2008, the number in Japan only has lowered.
• The number of master's degree recipients in "humanities and social sciences" is largest in the selected countries other than Japan.
• In comparison with 2008, the number in Japan only has lowered.
(Source) Science and technology indicators 2018, Research Material-274, published on August 2018 16
・New bachelor’s degree recipients are the largest in “humanities and social sciences” in many of the countries concerned.
・The number of master’s degree recipients in “humanities and social sciences” in the
largest in the selected countries rather thanJapan.
・In comparison with 2008, the number of Japan only has been lowered.
Countries whose patent families cite Japanese papers
Science and Technology Indicators
Examples of indicators of research and development output
Top 10 countries/regions in terms of the number of papers, the number of adjusted top 10% papers
(based on the fractional counting method)
PY 2004 - 2006
PY 2014 - 2016
PY: Publication Year
25.0
43.8
50.3
25.6
35.1
14.8
17.0
16.6
37.7
29.8
27.1
38.1
37.8
55.2
50.0
46.8
11.6
7.5
6.2
10.0
7.3
9.0
10.6
12.0
7.0
4.7
3.5
6.3
5.7
4.5
6.5
7.8
7.8
4.2
3.3
6.8
4.1
5.7
7.8
8.5
7.6
5.5
6.1
8.9
5.6
5.7
6.2
6.1
3.3
4.6
3.5
4.3
4.3
5.2
2.0
2.2
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Chemistry
Material science
Physics
Computer science/Mathematics
Engineering
Environment/Geoscience
Clinical medicine
Basic life sciences
Japan U.S. Germany France U.K. China Korea
Papers Share World rank Papers Share World rankU.S. 228,849 25.7 1 U.S. 34,127 38.4 1Japan 67,696 7.6 2 U.K. 6,503 7.3 2China 63,296 7.1 3 Germany 5,642 6.4 3Germany 53,648 6.0 4 Japan 4,559 5.1 4U.K. 51,976 5.8 5 China 4,453 5.0 5France 38,337 4.3 6 France 3,833 4.3 6Italy 31,573 3.5 7 Canada 3,392 3.8 7Canada 29,676 3.3 8 Italy 2,731 3.1 8Spain 23,056 2.6 9 Netherlands 2,146 2.4 9Korea 22,584 2.5 10 Spain 2,093 2.4 10
Papers Share World rank Papers Share World rankU.S. 273,858 19.3 1 U.S. 38,736 27.4 1China 246,099 17.4 2 China 24,136 17.0 2Germany 65,115 4.6 3 U.K. 8,613 6.1 3Japan 63,330 4.5 4 Germany 7,755 5.5 4U.K. 59,688 4.2 5 Italy 4,912 3.5 5India 52,875 3.7 6 France 4,862 3.4 6France 46,522 3.3 7 Australia 4,453 3.1 7korea 45,337 3.2 8 Canada 4,452 3.1 8Italy 44,450 3.1 9 Japan 4,081 2.9 9Canada 39,674 2.8 10 Spain 3,609 2.5 10
2014 - 2016 (PY) (Average)
The number of adjusted top 10% papers
The number of adjusted top 10% papers
Country/RegionFractional counting
Country/RegionFractional counting
All fields 2004 -2006(PY) (Average)
All fields 2014 - 2016 (PY) (Average)
The number of papers
The number of papers
Country/RegionFractional counting
Country/RegionFractional counting
All fields 2004 -2006(PY) (Average)
All fields
• A large number of Japanese papers in “physics” and “materials science” are cited for the use of Japan's own technologies.
• A large number of Japanese papers in “environment/geoscience,” “clinical medicine” and “basic life sciences” are cited for the use of other countries' technologies.
(Source) Science and technology indicators 2018, Research Material-274, published on August 2018 17
Science and Technology Indicators
Changes in the trade balance ratios for high-technology industries in the selected countries
Changes in the trade balance ratios for medium high-technology industries in the selected countries
Examples of indicators of science and technology and innovation
(Source) Science and technology indicators 2018, Research Material-274, published on August 2018
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1990 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 2016
The t
rade
balan
ce of
me
dium-
high
techn
ology
indu
stry Japan
U.S.
Germany
France
U.K.
China
Korea
Year0
1
2
3
4
1990 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 2016
The t
rade
balan
ce of
high
tech
nolog
y ind
ustry Japan
U.S.
Germany
France
U.K.
China
Korea
Year
• Japan ranked first among the selected countries in trade balance ratio for medium-high-technology industries at 2.73. The trade balance ratio shows a gradual decline following a rapid drop in the mid-1990s.
• Japan's trade balance ratio in high-technology industries showed a continuous decline and it marked 0.75 in 2016.
18
Benchmarking Scientific Research • Published for the first time in 2008. This survey is published almost every two years.• Multi-faceted analyses on scientific publications in Japan and benchmarking countries including
comparison by field use individual indicators and composite indicators.• “Benchmarking Scientific Research 2017” presents the latest value and shows chronological analyses on
structural shifts such as sector composition in Japan.
An Example of Survey Results: The world rank of Japan in the number of papers and highly cited papers (top10% and top1%)
Note: ALL: the world rankings of the number of papers. Top 10: the world rankings of hot papers whose number of times cited is in the top 10% of the world. Top 1: the world rankings of particularly hot papers whose number of times cited is in the top 1% of the world. The ranking at the bottom of the arrow shows the position as of 2003– 2005, and the ranking at the tip shows the position of 2013–2015.
ALL Top10 Top1 ALL Top10 Top1 ALL Top10 Top1 ALL Top10 Top1 ALL Top10 Top1 ALL Top10 Top1 ALL Top10 Top1 ALL Top10 Top1 ALL Top10 Top112 2 2 2 23 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 34 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 45 5 5 5 5 56 6 67 7 7 7 78 8 8 89 9 9 9 9
10 10 1011 11 11 1112 12 1213 13 131415 15
16th
OverallJapan Clinical medicine Basic life scienceChemistry Materials science Physics Computer science/Mathematics Engineering Env ironment/Geosciences
PY2003‐2005 PY2013‐2015
(Source) Benchmarking Scientific Research 2017, NISTEP Research Material-262, published on August, 2017 19
Benchmarking Scientific Research
An Example of Survey Results: Chronological change of the number of domestic papers and
international co-authored papers (Top 10%)
An Example of Survey Results:Number of papers and highly-cited papers (top 10% and top 1%)
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
1998-2000
2003-2005
2008-2010
2013-2015
1998-2000
2003-2005
2008-2010
2013-2015
1998-2000
2003-2005
2008-2010
2013-2015
U.K Germany Japan
The number of Top 10% highly cited papers
U.K. Germany Japan
Internationally co-authored papers (multilateral)
Domestically authored papers
Internationally co-authored papers (bilateral)
PY2004-06(average)
PY2014-16(average)
GrowthRate
PY2004-06(average)
PY2014-16(average)
GrowthRate
PY2004-06(average)
PY2014-16(average)
GrowthRate
USA 228,849 273,858 20% 34,127 38,736 14% 4,088 4,686 15%
China 63,296 246,099 289% 4,453 24,136 442% 332 2,214 567%
Germany 53,648 65,115 21% 5,642 7,755 37% 524 764 46%
UK 51,976 59,688 15% 6,503 8,613 32% 695 973 40%
Japan 67,696 63,330 -6% 4,559 4,081 -10% 356 333 -6%
France 38,337 45,337 18% 3,833 4,862 27% 337 445 32%
Korea 22,584 46,522 106% 1,391 3,150 126% 103 247 139%
World 892,125 1,416,085 59% 88,830 141,603 59% 8,883 14,160 59%
Top 10% (adjusted) Top 1% (adjusted)TotalCountries/Regions
(Source) Benchmarking Scientific Research 2017, NISTEP Research Material-262, published on August, 2017 20
21
Benchmarking Scientific Research An Example of Survey Results:
Structural Shifts in Japan (Scientific papers by organization sector)
National Universitues
Private Universities
Public Universities
Business Enterprises
Public Research Institutes
Others
Total Top 10%
1994→1999
1999→2004
2004→2009
2009→2014
1994→1999
1999→2004
2004→2009
2009→2014
-183 -177-3,143
-732
Fractional Counting
(Source) Benchmarking Scientific Research 2017, NISTEP Research Material-262, published on August, 2017
Fractional Counting
Science Map• Published for the first time in 2005. This survey is published almost every two years.• Shows the interrelationships among research areas (RAs) where there are active researches today.• The RAs are generated by grouping the top 1% highly cited papers, using co-citation analysis. Science
Map 2016, the latest map, covers papers published from 2011 to 2016.
ID Research area groups ID Research area groups1 Research on cardiovascular disease 11 Environment (Research on ecological system) 2 Research on infectious diseases 12 Environment (Research on climate change) 3 Research on digestive system disease 13 Chemical synthesis 4 Research on immunology 14 Nanoscience (Life sciences) 5 Cancer genome analysis & gene therapy, stem cell research 15 Nanoscience (Chemistry) 6 Research on brain and neurological diseases 16 Nanoscience (Physics) 7 Research on psychiatric disease 17 Quantum information & solid state research8 Research on viral infectious diseases 18 Energy creation9 Gene expression control, life-nano bridge 19 Particle physics and cosmology
10 Plant science research 20 Soft computing related research21 Social information infrastructure related research
‘97 ‘98 ‘99 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02Science map2002
‘99 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04Science map2004
‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06Science map2006
‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08Science map2008
‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10Science map2010
‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12Science map2012
‘97 ‘98 ‘99 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12
‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14Science map2014
‘13 ‘14
‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15 ‘16Science map2014
‘15 ‘16
Science Map 2016 is 8th round
(Source) Science Map 2016, NISTEP REPORT No.178, published on October 2018
Science Map 2016
22
An Example of Survey Results: Changes in the coverage of Hot Research Areas (RAs) in selected countries
An Example of Survey Results: Analysis of the coverage of Hot Research Areas (RAs) in Japan
Science Map
97%
90%
38%33%
56%
63%
51%56%
12%
51%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
02 16 02 16 02 16 02 16 02 16 02 16Co
vera
ge o
f hot
rese
arch
area
s (pe
rcen
tage
)
Cove
rage
of h
ot re
sear
ch ar
eas (
num
ber)
Coverage of hot research area (number)
Coverage of hot research area (percentage) [right axis]
The world JPN GBR DEU CHNUSA
81 74 8264 75
59 53 45
146 169184
199203
215 221254
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
The nu
mer of resea
rch area
s which
Japa
n pa
rticipates
Participation by internationally co‐authored papersParticipation only by Japanese papers
(Source) Science Map 2016, NISTEP REPORT No.178, published on October 2018 23
Science Map
An Example of Survey Results: Categorization of RAs by Sci-GEO chart
Continuity from the previous science map[Time]
Cognitive linkage with other RAs[Cognitive space]
NO YES
StrongW
eak
Continent type
Small island type
Island type
Peninsula type
Science Map
Sci-GEO Chart(Chart represents geographical characteristics of Research Areas on
Science Map)
An Example of Survey Results: Balance of each Sci-GEO type in Scinece
Map 2016
18% 20% 23% 24%32% 26%
17% 16%18% 19%
20%19%
26% 27%28% 27%
24%23%
40% 37% 31% 30%23%
32%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
ALL(895)
USA(802)
GBR(563)
DEU(500)
JPN(299)
CHN(452)
20% 21%28% 29% 30% 33%
21% 21%19% 23% 22%
26%24% 24%
25%22% 22% 14%
35% 34% 29% 26% 26% 27%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
ALL(626)
USA(596)
GBR(355)
DEU(343)
JPN(243)
CHN(113)
p
An Example of Survey Results: Balance of each Sci-GEO type in Scinece
Map 2004
(Source) Science Map 2016, NISTEP REPORT No.178, published on October 2018 24
©NISTEP 2018. All Rights Reserved
1) Research personnel in University and PRI
4) Industry-academia-government collaboration and innovation policy
2) Research environment and research funds
5) University reform and strengthening of its function
6) Relationship with society and strengthening of function for the policy promotion
3) Academic/basic research and the management of research funds
Note: Questionnaires were composed in line with the 5th Science and Technology Basic Plan.
University/Public Research Institution (PRI) group
2,100
Innovation overview group 700
2 groups of respondents
NISTEP Experts Survey on Japanese S&T and Innovation System (NISTEP TEITEN survey)
• Published for the first time in 2007. This survey is published every year.• Tracks the situation and trends of STI system in Japan through the survey to Japanese experts and
leading researchers in universities, public research institutions, and private firms.• Annual survey to the same respondents (fixed cohort)• The current survey is the 3rd phase (2016 – 2020 FY).
Total: 63 questions
25
NISTEP TEITEN surveyAn Example of Survey Results: Measuring recognition change during the implementation period of
the 4th S&T Basic Plan (FY 2011-2015)
(Source) NISTEP TEITEN Survey 2015, NISTEP REPORT No.166, published on March 2016
Positive changes
Negative changes
Usability of research expenses in Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research. 0.79 ↑
Fostering and recruitment of research administrators for the smooth execution of research activities. 0.35 ↑
Baseline funding for executing baseline R&D at universitiesand PRIs. 0.62 ↓
People with the required capabilities seeking to enter doctoral programs. 0.57 ↓
5.4
2.4
2.3
3.0
26
27
Japan Graduates Database (JGRAD)• JGRAD aims to continuously capture information on the career path of doctoral holders.• Pilot operation was began in 2014 and full-scale operation is started in 2017.• By the end of Aug. 2018, over 14,000 registrants from 43 universities.
博⼠課程在籍時 博⼠課程修了後
©NISTEP 2018. All rights reserved.
Input at the graduation・Information regarding the
program such as a degree・Contact information・Career path after graduation
Input after graduation・Updating his / her career path(JGRAD support team contacts to
registrants to ask updating his / her Information.)
researchmapJREC-IN Portal
collaboration
• Use of alumniʼs data
Japan Science and Technology Agency
(JST)
Alumni update his/her career path.
Doctoral students input and update his / her information.
Initial registration・Basic information・Information regarding on doctoral program
Member universitiesInitial
registration
Alumniʼsdata
• Web site: database style• Date is closed to the public • Providing information to registrants on the database*
MEXT ・ NISTEPJapan GraduatesDatabase(JGRAD)
After graduationGraduate year Doctoral program enrollment
28
Japan Doctoral Human Resource Profiling : JD-Pro• Published for the first time in 2015. This survey is published every 3 years.• The survey is conducted on doctoral graduates who completed their courses in the specific year. The goal is to
grasp career paths of doctoral human resources by revealing their current status of employment and research activities.
• The 2nd survey targeted on graduates in 2012 (the 2012 cohort) and graduates in 2015 (the 2015 cohort) about their current employment status.
An Example of Survey Items:Status of Employment in organizations (2012 cohort)
50.9
52.6
11.0
7.4
27.7
26.1
2.1
7.7
4.0
3.5
4.3
2.8
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
2012_1.5年後
2012_3.5年後
大学等 公的研究機関 民間企業 非営利団体 個人事業主 その他・無所属
An Example of Survey Items:Status of employment in academia (universities and public research institutes)
(2012 cohort)
29.936.9
9.8
10.9
60.352.2
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
20121.5年後
20123.5年後
任期制
テニュアトラック制
テニュア
(Source) 2nd Report of “Japan Doctoral Human Resource Profiling, NISTEP REPORT No.174, published on February, 2018
29
The 2015 Survey on Postdoctoral Fellows Regarding Employment and Careers in Japan<Governmental Statistics>
※Postdoctoral FellowsOut of the persons with a doctorate or persons who obtained the required credits and then withdrew from the doctoral course (i.e., coursework completed without a degree), persons who are employed with fixed-term contracts and 1) who
are engaged in research activities in universities or inter-university research institutes and are not engaged in education/research jobs based on Article 92 of the School Education Act, including professors, associate professors, assistant professors, assistants, and others, or 2) who are not engaged in management jobs, including leaders, principle researchers, and others of the research group the person belongs to, out of those who are engaged in research activities in public research institutions, including incorporated administrative agencies (including national research institutes and municipal research institutes).
• The aim of this study is analyzing young researchers’ situation by grasping their employment status and career development focusing on postdoctoral fellows in universities and public research institutions.
• This survey is started in 2005 and has been conducted every year during 2004-2009, and is conducted by MEXT and NISTEP every three years. It became governmental statistics in 2015.
• 1,168 institutes cooperated for the latest survey in 2015.
An Example of Survey Results: Employment status of postdoctoral fellows as of FY2015
(Source) The 2015 Survey on Postdoctoral Fellows Regarding Employment and Careers in Japan, NISTEP Research Material-270, published on January, 2018
30
Japanese National Innovation Survey <Governmental Statistics>
• The first round implemented in 2003, followed in every several years. The results of the fifth round (J-NIS 2018) to be published in FY2019.
• A governmental statistical survey for enterprises (sample size: more than 30,000 enterprises) to capture and analyze the status and trends of realizing innovations and innovation activities in firms as well as those of the national innovation system.
• The survey results indicate, e.g. the situations of realizing innovations and the open innovation in a country. They are also used as data for internationally comparable innovation indicators by OECD etc.
An Example of Survey Results: Ratios of Innovating Firms (to All the Firms) by Manufacturing/Services and Enterprise Size Class
(Source) Report on the Fourth Round of the Japanese National Innovation Survey (J-NIS 2015), NISTEP REPORT No.170, published on November 2016.
An Example of Survey Results: Key Factors of Hampering Innovations
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
全体 製造業 サービス業 小規模企業 中規模企業 大規模企業
未完了のイノベーション活動のみ
プロダクト又はプロセス・イノベーション実現
31
Survey on Research Activities of Private Corporations<Governmental Statistics>
• Is transferred from MEXT in 2008, and published every year.• Analyzes qualitative data on corporate research and development trends, related strategies and
organizational changes, etc., for private companies (capital of 100 million Yen or more).
An Example of Survey Results: Trend of recruitment of R&D personnelby academic degree or category of career
An Example of Survey Results: Research and development intensity of major industries
An Example of Survey Results: Types of organizations in collaboration with other organizations in R&D
(Source) Survey on Research Activities of Private Corporations 2017, NISTEP REPORT No.177, published on May 2018.
32
Regional Science and Technology Indicators• Published for the first time in 2000. The 2018 edition will be published in the end of this year. • Analysis current situations of regional science and technology infrastructure and activities, utilizing
analysis of eight items such as companies, research institutes, universities, local municipalities, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research, university-industry collaboration, patents and journal articles.
An Example of Survey Results: Accepted amount and number of cooperation between universities and private enterprises by prefecture(2012)
(Source) Regional Science and Technology Indicators 2016, NISTEP Research Material-246, published on March 2016.
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
東京都
京都府
大阪府
宮城県
愛知県
福岡県
北海道
兵庫県
山形県
神奈川県
石川県
千葉県
茨城県
新潟県
広島県
三重県
静岡県
長野県
岡山県
徳島県
熊本県
岐阜県
岩手県
山口県
埼玉県
群馬県
佐賀県
富山県
栃木県
長崎県
福井県
奈良県
鹿児島県
沖縄県
山梨県
愛媛県
秋田県
宮崎県
福島県
高知県
香川県
青森県
鳥取県
大分県
和歌山県
滋賀県
島根県
金額(百万円)
件数(件)
1件当たり金額(百万円)
1件当たり⾦額(百万円)⾦額(百万円)
件数(件)
©NISTEP 2018. All Rights Reserved
• Prioritization• Top-down decision
making/prioritization• Link S&T policy to
foresight surveys
• Catch-up process• Bottom-up decision
making• Consensus among
sectors
1970-80’s
2000-
1971-1997The 1st– 6th Technology Foresight
2001 The 7th Technology Foresight
2005 The 8th S&T Foresight
Delphi
Delphi
S&T Basic Law
The 1st S&T Basic Plan
The 2nd S&T Basic Plan
The 3rd S&T Basic Plan
1995
1996-2000
2001-2005
2006-2010
The 4th S&T Basic Plan2011-2015 2010 The 9th S&T Foresight
Delphi Scenario
Needs analysis
Delphi Scenario
Regional workshops
Study on emerging technologies
• Shift to problem-solving, backcasting approach
Innovation 25
Needs analysis
Japan is the pioneer of S&T foresight surveys. Its method has been adopted in many countries.
2010-
Japan Vision 2020
The 5th S&T Basic Plan2016-2020
2015The 10th S&T Foresight
DelphiScenarioFuture vision・ Integration of S&T policy
and innovation policy
2015-
Shift to Problem-
solving typeShift to N
eeds driven type
Technology D
evelopment
centered Seeds typeSocial vision D
evelopment type
• Transition phase• Moderate link of foresight
surveys to comprehensive S&T policy
1990’s
Foresight
S&T BASIC PLANS&T BASIC PLAN
Historical Development of STI Policy and Foresight
33
©NISTEP 2018. All Rights Reserved
Summary of the 11th Science and Technology Foresight
<Part 1>Horizon Scanning
<Objective>Understand the current situation and capture weak signals.
<Contents>・Organize and order societal trends regarding science and technology by utilizing related literature・Capture emerging science and technology that will make a future impact
<Part 2>Visioning
<Objective>Envision the desirable future.
<Contents>・Consider what kind of desirable society can be created while keeping social changes in mind, as well as the results from current trends obtained from Horizon Scanning.
<Part 3>Delphi Survey
<Objective>Assess science and technology topics.
<Contents>・Extract those science and technology topics that are expected to be realized in the future・Questionnaire survey will be implemented with expert investigators to assess their importance, feasibility, etc.
<Part 4>Scenario planning
<Objective>Describe the scenarios and strategies required to realize the desirable society.
<Content>・Consider the scenario themes.・Draw future scenarios based on the desired future and the trends in science and technology.
Continuous Horizon Scanning Activity
Science and Technology Basic Plan / Future Consideration
Research & D
evelopment Assistance D
ataContribution to S&T Policies
34
Result Image(An Example of Survey Items:10th STI Policy and Foresight Surveys)
35
New businesses that manage customers' personal behavior information (such as sensor information and purchase histories)in a manner similar to credit card companies and banks will emerge and become commonly used by the public.
A system to record and store all measurement and image data generated by research activities as well as authenticate and guarantee the original raw data in order to prove the authenticity of research results.
A hazard prediction system which combines data from multiple wearable devices in a crowd to recognize objects such as buildings, people, or cars through image analysis and inform the wearer of possible accidents or predict risks (could be used to facilitate relief and evacuation during a large-scale disaster).
To achieve a healthy aging society, information about the hobbies, health, medical records, and daily activity of elderly people will be managed and analyzed in a single database.
Technology to allow the recording, management, search, and analysis of everyday personal data through the accumulation of large amounts of physical and "lifelog" data (It will be provided as a wearable external brain function system that is accessed through a natural user interface (NUI)).
Collection of data through various environmental sensors installed in stores that is statistically processed and accumulated, and then over 80% of the data is released to the public as open data.
A social system in which knowledge, information, and content can be distributed while preserving their reasonable value and still allowing for the redistribution of economic value and societal honor.
Development of new products (including insurance products) based on a new understanding of privacy, economic behavior, insurance, etc. to achieve GDP growth of 20% in related industries
A system to predict the acceleration of damage from a disaster by linking together the atypical, subjective, and ephemeral big data with simulation.
A reduction of the food loss through the monitoring of production and consumption.
2020 20302025
A marketplace for data where the value of data can be visualized and data is widely traded based on market principles.
A health care and medical data bank that more than 70% of all citizens register for voluntarily (the data bank aims to provide health, medical, and long-term nursing care services to the public efficiently and effectively and allows authorized care providers and registered citizens themselves to view the data).
Tailor-made functional food products based on the use of big data.
Consider the technology development for IoT/IoE that Japan had strength and the progress on social challenge resulting from declining workforce
Lead advanced information society by centralized collecting and analyzing various data such as “living data”
Home Retail Manufacturing…
Transportation AgricultureMedical Care
Get upGo to bedetc.
Destination,purpose,etc.
Exercise,etc.
Purchase hitoryetc.
Cropping recordWeather etc.
ManufacturingRecordetc.
Personal info proxy admin Agency
Collect and accumulate various datain physical space based on living data
Analyze the integrated dataDecision-making for total optimization
OpenDisclose the eligible data as open-data after completing anonymization process Provide various visualizing analysis function to government
Collect various data using our strengthincluding elements
such as sensor, devise, and home appliances
Be secured promoting R&D on security
related fields
Analyzed by AI related technology
Develop hardwarefor analysis
Promote innovation through being open
Promote to co-create value
︵open –innovation
︶
Collect
Analyze
UtilizeShare
Living data(Personal info)
Other Information
Leadership Scenario through Centralized Information Collection and Analysis based on “Manufacturing Ability”
(Source) The 10th Science and Technology Foresight: Future Perspectives on Science and Technology by Field, NISTEP Research Material-240, published on September, 2015
36
Contents
• Outline of NISTEP
• Main Researches
• International Conferences
• The Researchers with Nice Step
37
International Conference on Foresight
• NISTEP discusses and exchanges opinions with experts in Japan and abroad by organizing international conferences in carrying out survey research.
• Representative conferences: international Conference on foresight started in March 2000 (8 times)
The 1st International Conference on Foresight(March 2000)The approach to and the potential for New Technology Foresight
The 2nd International Conference on Foresight(February 2003)The Third Generation Foresight and Prioritization in Science and TechnologyPolicy
The 3rd International Conference on Foresight(November 2007)The 4th International Conference on Foresight(March 2011)
Foresight for Future Society: Diversified Development of Activities
The 5th International Conference on Foresight(February 2014)Foresight Activities for Solving Societal Issues
The 6th International Conference on Foresight(March 2015)Thinking about the Future Possibility of Foresight toward Contribution to Policy
Making
The 7th International Conference on Foresight(March 2016)Prospects for the Disaster Risk Reduction and Aging Society in the World
The 8th International Conference on Foresight(November 2017)Foresight for Strategic Planning
Session 1: Strategy and Foresight toward the futureSession 2: New Dimensions of Foresight: Stakeholder Involvement for
Consensus BuildingSession 3: Foresight in Digitalization: Best Practices
The 8th International Conference on Foresight
The 7th International Conference on Foresight
38
Trilateral Science and Technology Policy Seminar
• This seminar aims to deepen research exchanges with 4 governmental think tanks on S&T policy in China and Korea, started in 2006. The 13th seminar will be held on November 14 and 15 in Sendai.
• Member institutes: NISTEP, Institutes of Science and Development, the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CASISD), Chinese Academy of Science and Technology for Development (CASTED), Korea Institute of S&T Evaluation and Planning (KISTEP), and the Science and Technology Policy Institute (STEPI in South Korea)
Outline the 12th Trilateral Science and Technology Policy Seminar
October 2017(China)Session 1 :2017 Highlights of Research ActivitiesSession 2: Policy Practice on Cultivating New Momentum for
Economic Development through Science, Technology and Innovation
Session 3 :Developing Innovation Community under International STI Cooperation
Session 4: Entrepreneurship and Employment in the context of Globalization or De-Globalization
Session 5: Technology Foresight: Methodology and Results
The12th Trilateral Science and Technology Policy Seminar
The12th Trilateral Science and Technology Policy Seminar
39
Contents
• Outline of NISTEP
• Main Researches
• International Conferences
• The Researchers with Nice Step
40
NISTEP Selection (The Researchers with Nice Step)
• Since 2005, NISTEP has selected researchers who made outstanding contributions to S&T as “NISTEP Selection (the Researchers with Nice Step)”.(153 selected researchers in total)
Professor Shinya Yamanaka (Kyoto University, selected in 2006) and Professor Hiroshi Amano (Meijo University then, selected in 2009) are researchers with Nice Step, and were lately awarded the Nobel Prize.
In 2017, researchers leading new fields, researchers promoting co-creation with science and technology and society, researchers developing internationally, foreign researchers active internationally based in Japan, developers of innovative research methods and tools, researchers connecting research results to innovation are selected.
<2017>
○Dr. Arisa EMA(33) Project Assistant Professor, of Arts and Sciences, College of Arts and Sciences, The University of Tokyo
○Dr. Shinpei KATO(35) Associate Professor, Department of Computer Science, Graduate School of Information Science and Technology, The University of Tokyo/ CET・CTO, Tier Ⅳ, Inc
○Dr. Tenkai KIN(38) Associate Professor, Department of Systems Innovation Engineering/CTO, AISing Ltd.
○Dr. Hiroshi TAKAGI(43) Associate Professor, School of Environment and Society, Tokyo Institute of Technology
○Dr. Daichi CHIBA(39) Associate Professor, Department of Applied Physics, Graduate School of Engineering Science, The University of Tokyo
○Dr. Keiji NISHIDA(38) Professor, Graduate School of Science, and Technology and Innovation, Kobe University/ Director, Bio Palette Co., Ltd.
○Dr. Toshihide HIGE(36)Research Scientist, Janelia Research Campus, Howard Hughes Medical Institute
○Dr. Kyoko MIURA(37) Associate Professor, Department of Aging and Longevity Researches, Faculty of Life Sciences, Kumamoto University
○Dr. Junichiro YAMAGUCHI(38) Associate Professor, Department of Applied Chemistry, School of Advanced Science and Engineering, WASEDA University
○Dr. Francois Le Gall(39) Associate Professor, Graduate School of Informatics Department of Communication and Computer Engineering
○Dr. Yoshihide WADA(37) Deputy Director, Water Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis(IIASA)
NISTEP Selection 2017
[ *As of November 2017]
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