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TRECH StudyProject Overview

The Transportation, Equity, Climate and Health Study (TRECH Study)

The TRECH Study is an independent research effort by:

The Center for Climate, Health, and the Global Environment (Harvard C-CHANGE) at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public HealthBoston University School of Public HealthInstitute for the Environment at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

The TRECH Study is made possible thanks in part to support from the Barr Foundation.

www.hsph.harvard.edu/c-change

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Analyzing the Potential Health Benefits of Cl imate Transportation Policies

The TRECH Study

ResearchersfromtheCenterforClimate,Health,andtheGlobalEnvironmentatthe

HarvardT.H.ChanSchoolofPublicHealth(HarvardC-CHANGE),BostonUniversitySchoolofPublicHealth,andtheUniversityofNorthCarolinaarestudyingthepotential

real-worldhealthoutcomesfromclimatemitigationstrategiesforthetransportationsectorintheNortheastandMid-AtlanticregionsoftheU.S.developedbytheTransportationandClimateInitiative(TCI).

Specifically,theTransportation,Equity,ClimateandHealthStudy(TRECHStudy)willuseprojectionsoffutureairpollutionemissionsandshiftsinmodesoftransportationunder

differentpolicyscenariostoestimatehealthoutcomesfromchangesinairqualityandphysicalactivity.

TheTRECHStudyismadepossiblethanksinparttosupportfromtheBarrFoundation.

The Challenge

Greenhousegas(GHG)emissionsfromthetransportationsectorconstituteabout30%oftotalGHGemissionsintheU.S.,makingitthelargestsourceofclimatepollutionin

thenation1.Tailpipeemissionsfromthetransportationsectorarealsoalargesourceofconventionalairpollutants,includingcarbonmonoxide,hydrocarbons,nitrogenoxides,andparticulatematterthatcandegradeairqualityandharmhumanhealth.Inaddition,

currentandhistoricpatternsoftransportationdevelopmentinfluencenoisepollution,land-usepatterns,andaccesstoservices—allofwhichinfluenceclimateandhealth.

Scienceshowsthattransportationhaslargehealtheffectsthatdisproportionatelyaffectlower-incomecommunitiesandcommunitiesofcolor,andthatregionaltransportation

differencesleadtodifferenthealthoutcomes.Forexample,urbanresidentstypicallyexperiencegreaterairandnoisepollutionaswellasimpactsfromtransitservicedelays,

whereasruralresidentsdependmoreonvehicleuseforaccesstodistantservicesand

experiencelessaccesstopublicandactivetransportation,suchaswalkingorbiking.

1Basedonthe2017NationalEmissionsInventory.IntheNationalEmissionsInventory,the“transportationsector”includesemissionsfrompassengercarsandtrucks,buses,aircraft,shipsandboats,motorcyclesandrailsources.

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The Opportunity

Climatechangemitigationprogramsfortransportationhavethepotentialtogeneratesubstantialpublichealthbenefitsandhelpalleviatehistoricalandcurrentinequities.

Existingresearchsuggeststhatpositivehealthandequityoutcomesaregeneratedbytransportationinvestmentsthatpromotecompactmixed-usedevelopment,improveandincreaseuseofpublictransportation,enhancesafeandenjoyableaccesstoactivemodesoftransportsuchaswalkingandbiking,andencouragealternativestotravelinprivatemotorvehicles.

The Transportation and Climate Initiative

TheTransportation&ClimateInitiative(TCI)isaregionalcollaborationof12Northeast

andMid-AtlanticStatesandtheDistrictofColumbia,facilitatedbytheGeorgetownClimateCenter,thatseekstoimprovetransportation,developthecleanenergy

economyandreducecarbonemissionsfromthetransportationsector.TheparticipatingstatesareConnecticut,Delaware,Maine,Maryland,Massachusetts,NewHampshire,

NewJersey,NewYork,Pennsylvania,RhodeIsland,Vermont,andVirginia.Recognizingthatnearly40%ofregionalGHGemissionsintheNortheastandMid-Atlanticregions

comefromthetransportationsector2,participatingstateagencyofficialsaretakingactiontoreducetheseemissionsbyworkingwithexpertsandstakeholderstodevelopaproposedcapandinvestprogram.

TRECH Study Questions

TheTRECHStudyteamisestimatingthehealthconsequencesofseveraltransportation

policyscenariosthatwillbedefinedbythestatesparticipatinginTCIwithinputfromstakeholdersacrosstheregion.Ourfourresearchquestionsare:

1. Whatarethehealthconsequencesassociatedwithestimatedchangesinairquality

andphysicalactivityfordifferenttransportationpolicyscenariosintheNortheast

andMid-Atlanticregions?2. Howarecounty-scalechangesinairpollutionexposureandhealthbenefits

distributedgeographicallyandbyrace,ethnicity,andsocioeconomicstates?Or,whobenefitsandwhere?

3. Howdostatelevelchangesinemissionsinonestateaffectairqualityresultsinthe

countiesofnearbystates?

2StateEnergyDataSystemsoftheU.S.EnergyInformationAdministration:https://www.eia.gov/state/seds/.

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4. Towhatextentarepre-existingtransportation-relatedhealthburdensalleviatedunderdifferenttransportationpolicyscenarios?

TRECH Study Research Approach

Scope -TheTRECHstudycoverstheexpectedchangesinairqualityandtheassociatedhealthbenefitsfromreducedemissionsaswellasthepotentialphysicalactivitybenefitsfromincreasedaccesstowalking,biking,orotheractivemodesoftransportation.Thescopedoesnotcovertheeffectsofnoiseexposureandsocialdeterminantsofhealth.

Modeling—Toaddressthefourresearchquestionsabove,weareusingamulti-modelapproachthatlinksanemissionsmodeltoanairqualitymodel(i.e.,CMAQ-DDM3)andahealthmodel(i.e.,BenMAP4).Thiswillincludechangesinemissionsofcarbondioxide,sulfurdioxide,nitrogenoxides,volatileorganiccompounds,andparticulatematterforeachcountyinthestudyregion.TheemissionsmodelingisconductedbytheconsultingfirmsofOnLocationandCambridgeSystematics.

Wewillcombinethemodelingresultswithcensusdatatoestimateinequitiesinairpollutionexposureandhealthriskswithinandbetweendemographicgroups,andwithandwithoutthepolicyscenarios.Wewillanalyzehowchangesinbikingandwalkingtripsunderthepolicyscenariosimpactphysicalactivityandhealth,usingamodelcalledtheHEATtool5.

Theinformationgeneratedbytheresearchmodelsusedinthisstudyrepresentasubsetoftheinformationthatpolicymakersneedtoconsiderwhenmakingdecisionsabouttransportationpolicy.Whenevaluatingfinalpolicyoptions,itisalsoimportanttouseothersourcesofknowledge,includingstakeholderperspectivesandqualitativeinformationabouthealthytransportationsystems.

Scale —Theairqualityandhealtheffectsofthetransportationpolicyscenarioswillbeestimatedatthecountyscalefortheentireregion.Questionsaboutthehealthequityorenvironmentaljusticeconsequencesofagivenpolicyoftenrelatetoconditionsattheneighborhoodscale.Follow-upcasestudiesusingadditionaldataandmethodswouldberequiredtoestimatehealthoutcomesinspecificneighborhoods.

Pollution Sources–Ourairqualitymodelwillfocusonchangesinemissionsfromon-roadvehiclesandchangesinemissionsfromtheelectricgridthatareassociatedwithelectricvehicleuse.Emissionsestimatesarenotcurrentlyavailabletoevaluatenon-road,non-tailpipesourcesofpollutionsuchasbusdepots,airports,non-roadfreight,androadwear.

3CommunityMulti-ScaleAirQualitymodel-DirectDecoupledMethod4EnvironmentalBenefitsMappingandAnalysisProgram5HealthEconomicAssessmentTool

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Core Research Team

AaronBernstein,MD,MPH,Co-Director,HarvardC-CHANGEJonathanBuonocore,ScD,ResearchAssociate,HarvardC-CHANGEKathyFallonLambert,MS,SeniorAdvisor,HarvardC-CHANGEDrewMichanowicz,MPH,PhD,ResearchFellow,HarvardC-CHANGESarahZelasky,ResearchIntern,HarvardC-CHANGECalvinArter,PhDstudent,UniversityofNorthCarolinaatChapelHillSaravArunachalam,PhD,Professor,InstitutefortheEnvironment,UniversityofNorthCarolinaatChapelHillMariaDanielaCastillo,BS,ResearchAssistant,BostonUniversitySchoolofPublicHealthPatrickKinney,ScD,Professor,BostonUniversitySchoolofPublicHealthJonLevy,ScD,ProfessorandChair,BostonUniversitySchoolofPublicHealthMatthewRaifman,PhDstudent,BostonUniversitySchoolofPublicHealth

Researchcontact:KathyFallonLambert;klambert@hsph.harvard.eduMediacontact:MarcyFranck;mfranck@hsph.harvard.edu

About Harvard C-CHANGE

TheCenterforClimate,Health,andtheGlobalEnvironmentattheHarvardT.H.ChanSchoolofPublicHealth(HarvardC-CHANGE)increasespublicawarenessofthehealthimpactsofclimatechangeandusessciencetomakeitpersonal,actionable,andurgent.LedbyformerU.S.EnvironmentalProtectionAgencyAdministratorGinaMcCarthyandCo-directorDr.AaronBernstein,theCenterleveragesHarvard’scutting-edgeresearchtoinformpolicies,technologies,andproductsthatreduceairpollutionandothercausesofclimatechange.Bymakingclimatechangepersonal,highlightingsolutions,andemphasizingtheimportantroleweallplayindrivingchange,HarvardC-CHANGEputshealthoutcomesatthecenterofclimateactions.

The Transportation, Equity, Climate and Health Study (TRECH Study)

TheTRECHStudyisanindependentresearcheffortby:TheCenterforClimate,Health,andtheGlobalEnvironmentattheHarvardT.H.ChanSchoolofPublicHealth(HarvardC-CHANGE)www.hsph.harvard.edu/c-change

BostonUniversitySchoolofPublicHealthwww.bu.edu/sph/

TheInstitutefortheEnvironmentattheUniversityofNorthCarolinaatChapelHillwww.ie.unc.edu/