the undercover recovery - sales institute seminar september 2013
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Drivers & Drinking
The Undercover Recovery Gerard O’Neill/September 2013
Sales Institute of Ireland © Amárach Research 2013
we discover the right answers to our clients’ important questions
1. Consumer Drivers
2. 2020 Scenarios
3. Stretching Strategy
1. Consumer Drivers
Retail Category Confidence Correlation
Supermarkets 0.86 Furniture 0.81 Books and stationary 0.80 Hardware and DIY 0.78 ALL RETAIL SALES 0.77 Pharmacies 0.73 Pubs 0.71 Electrical Goods 0.67 Clothing and Footwear 0.66 Petrol Stations 0.63 Department Stores 0.56 Cars 0.46
Regions Share of
Households 2005
Share of Households
2010
Share of Households
2015
Border 11.5% 12.2% 12.9%
Dublin 26.1% 30.6% 32.0%
Mid East 9.6% 9.9% 10.1%
Mid West 5.0% 6.4% 7.8%
Midlands 9.3% 6.7% 5.0%
South East 10.9% 10.1% 9.4%
South West 14.6% 16.2% 16.9%
West 12.9% 7.9% 6.0%
State 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
24% have used a
smartphone to check for a lower price online while still in the shop
47% have
intentionally researched a product in a shop
before buying it online
Source: Amárach Research May 2013
38% have sold an
item they no longer wanted or use to
someone else rather than throw it away
37% have bought an
item from someone else (not a shop) which had been purchased from a
shop in the past
Source: Amárach Research May 2013
Making my
life easier
Making my
life harder %
Relevant
Google 95% 5% 65%
Friends 90% 10% 72%
Microsoft 87% 13% 45%
Samsung 85% 15% 33%
Facebook 84% 16% 51%
Family 83% 17% 81%
Spouse/Partner 81% 19% 70%
Apple 81% 19% 32%
An Post 73% 27% 51%
Supermarket 71% 29% 75%
Colleagues 67% 33% 43%
TV Service 58% 42% 60%
Mobile Network 55% 45% 65%
Daily Newspaper 52% 48% 42%
Boss 47% 53% 43%
Petrol Station 34% 66% 62%
Electricity Provider 33% 67% 70%
Bank 24% 76% 59%
Government 9% 91% 86%
Source: Amárach Research May 2013
2. 2020 Scenarios
By 2020, Ireland has experienced 5 years of uninterrupted growth, driven by global economic recovery and improving eurozone prospects, stimulating falling unemployment and buoyant consumer spending
By 2020, Ireland has witnessed only fitful bursts of growth, with the economy falling back into recession as the situation worsens in both the eurozone and the UK, with unemployment rising as spending falls Recession
Recovery
E C O N O M Y
Renewal Stagnation SOCIETY
The legacy of the Celtic Tiger’s demise is felt through to 2020 in the form of a continuing personal debt crisis, worsening emigration, family breakdown and rising inequality between income groups, regions and even between generations
A new spirit of social and local revival
emerges as communities and
organisations exploit the potential of new
and existing technologies and
policies to improve individual, local and
national wellbeing
Recession
Recovery
Renewal Stagnation
Fragile Flourish
Fragment Re-Frame
Ireland 2020
35% 25%
25% 15%
Ireland 2020 Scenarios: Summary
SCENARIOS Fragile Fragment Flourish Re-Frame
Dimensions Recovery + Stagnation
Recession + Stagnation
Recovery + Renewal
Recession + Renewal
Winners Over 40s, debt free,
Dublin
Over 60s, retired,
South Dublin
Under 40s, entrepreneurs, east corridor
Under 30s, renters, mobile
Mindset Recuperate Vigilance Network Experiment
Resources Family Legacy Equity SoLoMo
Values Look after your own
Look after yourself
Create your own future
Together is better
Outlook It will get better
It won’t get better
It’s our turn now
This time is different
Winning Brands
Netflix Donnybrook
Fair Travel Dept
Ryanair Aldi/Lidl
DoneDeal
LinkedIn NDRC
Key Capital
AirB&B Etsy
Guaranteed Irish
3. Stretching Strategy
This Time Is Different
Recession
Recovery
Renewal Stagnation
Fragile Flourish
Fragment Re-Frame
e. gerard.oneill@amarach.com w. www.amarach.com
b. www.amarach.com/blog t. twitter.com/AmarachResearch
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