the vulnerability of australian rural communities to climate risk
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The vulnerability of Australian rural communities to climate risk
Philip KokicResearch Scientist, CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems
with Steven Crimp, Rohan Nelson, Mark Howden, Peter Brown & other colleagues
Climate Adaptation Flagship
Slide 2
Overview
Australia’s exposure to climate risk
The rural livelihoods framework
Adaptive capacity measures for rural communities
Sample surveys used to construct an adaptive capacity index
Vulnerability assessment
Slide 3
The climate is variable & changing
Source: BoM
Rainfall variability Trend in total rainfall
Slide 4
20
21
22
23
24
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Year
Te
mp
era
ture
(o C)
Australian temperatures• Marked
acceleration in Australian warming trend.
• 1910-2009 +0.12oC/decade
Source: CBoM
• 1975-2009
+0.24oC/decade• 1957-2009
+0.20oC/decade
Slide 5 Lo et al., 2007. Monthly Weather Review, 135, 3506-3520.
Southern hemisphere – high pressure, spring
Trend in anti-cyclone density, 1970-2008
Slide 6
Southern hemisphere – high pressure, spring
Slide 7
Narrow disciplinary and institutional perspectives have provided few practical options for policymakers dealing with the complex and interacting goals of adaptation
– climate-centric not human-centric– identifies the problem but not solutions– pressure to reduce policy goals to fit the
scientific methods and agendas
Significant blockage in science-policy interface
The science – policy interface
Slide 8
Livelihoodplatform
Human
Social
Natural
Physical
Financial
H’hold capacity
Livelihoodstrategies
Resulting in
Natural Resourcebased activities
non -NRbased activities
Composed of
Attributes of management practices
Livelihoodsecurity
Environ’lsustainability
With effects on
Aspirations
The rural livelihoods conceptual framework
Institutions
Organisations
Social relations
Access modified by
Shocks
Trends
In the context of
Rural livelihoods context
Outcomes
…Source: Ellis (2000)
Slide 9
The Australian farm survey
Survey ~ 2000 farms annually
Broadacre and dairy industries only
Stratified rotating random sample
GREG estimates based on Agricultural census benchmarks
Basic collection
Physical
Production
Financial
Supplementary surveys
Human and social aspects
Sampled farms 2004-05
Survey regions
Source: ABARE
Slide 10
Measuring adaptive capacity
Human capitalOperator and spouse education level, health status
Social capitalLandcare member, number of business partners, internet use
Natural capitalPasture growth index, dams per hectare, remnant vegetation
Physical capitalPlant and machinery, structures, livestock
Financial capitalCapital value, total income, access to finance
Source of data:Australian farm survey, ABS survey, Natural resource surveys
Slide 11
Constructing the adaptive capacity measure
Adaptive Capacity Index
Human Social Natural Physical Financial
Hv1 Hv2 Hv3Sv1 Sv2
Nv1 Nv2 Nv3 Nv4
Pv1Sv3 Pv2
Fv1 Fv2 Fv3Using equal weightsResult using PCA loadings
Slide 12 (Nelson et al. 2010)
Human
Social
Physical
Financial
Natural Adaptive Capacity
Slide 13
Vulnerability to income risk
High Medium Low
Low High High Moderate
Medium High Moderate Low
High Moderate Low Low
Integrated vulnerability assessment
Adaptive capacity
Exposure to income risk
Slide 14
The vulnerability of rural communities
To pasture growth variability To farm income variability
No data
Least vulnerable
Moderately vulnerable
Most vulnerable
Slide 15
Summary
Rural communities have adapted and flourished in extreme climate risk
Evaluating risk solely on biophysical measures is misleading
Adaptation measures are policy relevant
Sample survey techniques can be used to measure and construct an adaptive capacity index
Vulnerability needs to be assessed against all sources of risk.
Slide 16
Contact UsPhone: 1300 363 400 or +61 3 9545 2176
Email: enquiries@csiro.au Web: www.csiro.au
Thank you
CMIS EnvironmetricsDr. Philip KokicSenior Research Scientist
Phone: +61 2 6242 1735Email: philip.kokic@csiro.auWeb: www.csiro.au/cmis
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