timber prices and forest products market: a look at the … · 2019-04-05 · timber prices and...
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Timber Prices and Forest
Products Market: A Look at the
Underlying Trends and Future
Outlook
Sayeed R. Mehmood
The Ohio State University
Ohio River Valley Woodlands and Wildlife Workshop
March 30, 2019
The Plan….
We will take a look at some analysis of historical timber price data.
The data will be mostly from Ohio, with some (very limited) data from Indiana for comparison.
We will also have a quick look at forest products market outlook.
The Methods….
• Ohio historical timber price data were collected from the Timber Price Report published twice a year.
Methods, contd.
• Indiana timber price data were collected from the Forest Products Price Report and Trend Analysis
Methods, contd.
Nominal prices were then converted to real dollar values by using the Producer Price Index (PPI).
Economic outlook indicators were collected from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) web site by the St. Louis Fed.
Stumpage Prices
Walnut Stumpage
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2000
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Year
Walnut Statewide Average Stumpage Prices, 1960-2018
Nominal Price, State Real Price, State 3-Year Moving Average
Walnut Stumpage: Between Season and Same Season Percent Change
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
19
60
19
61
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63
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64
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66
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72
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Per
cen
t C
han
geWalnut Stumpage Prices: Percent Change
Percent Change, From Prev. Season Percent Change, From Same Season
White Oak Stumpage
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
19
60
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61
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63
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64
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66
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69
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72
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llars
Year
White Oak Statewide Average Stumpage Prices, 1960-2018
Nominal Price, State Real Price, State 3-Year Moving Average
White Oak Stumpage: Between Season and Same Season Percent Change
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
19
60
19
61
19
63
19
64
19
66
19
67
19
69
19
70
19
72
19
73
19
75
19
76
19
78
19
79
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81
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82
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00
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03
20
05
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06
20
08
20
09
20
11
20
12
20
14
20
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20
17
20
18
Per
cen
t C
han
geBetween Season and Same Season Percent Change
Percent Change Percent Change, Same Season
Red Oak Stumpage
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
19
60
19
61
19
63
19
64
19
66
19
67
19
69
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70
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72
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llars
Year
Red Oak Statewide Average Stumpage Prices, 1960-2018
Nominal Price, State Real Price, State 3-Year Moving Average
Red Oak Stumpage: Between Season and Same Season Percent Change
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
19
60
19
61
19
63
19
64
19
66
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67
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72
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Per
cen
t C
han
geBetween Season and Same Season Percent Change
Percent Change Percent Change, Same Season
Cherry Stumpage
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
19
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19
61
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Year
Black Cherry Statewide Average Stumpage Prices, 1960-2018
Nominal Price, State Real Price, State 3-Year Moving Average
Black Cherry Stumpage: Between Season and Same Season Percent Change
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
19
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63
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Per
cen
t C
han
geBetween Season and Same Season Percent changes
Percent Change Percent Change, Same Season
Hard Maple Stumpage
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
19
60
19
61
19
63
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64
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66
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Year
Hard Maple Statewide Average Stumpage Prices, 1960-2018
Nominal Price, State Real Price, State 3-Year Moving Average
Hard Maple Stumpage: Between Season and Same Season Percent Changes
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
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60
70
19
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Per
cen
t C
han
geBetween Season and Same Season Percent Changes
Percent Change Percent Change, Same Season
Sawlog Prices
Walnut Sawlog Real Prices by Grade
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
19
60
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61
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62
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64
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19
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70
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Rea
l 20
15
Do
llars
YEAR
Walnut Sawlog Real Prices for Different Grades
Prime #1 Common #2 Common Blocking
White Oak Sawlog Real Prices by Grade
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
19
60
19
61
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62
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Rea
l 20
15
Do
llars
Year
White Oak Sawlog Real Prices
Prime Real #1 Real #2 Real Blocking Real
Red Oak Sawlog Real Prices by Grade
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
19
60
19
61
19
62
19
63
19
64
19
65
19
67
19
68
19
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19
71
19
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19
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19
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19
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19
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19
82
19
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19
85
19
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17
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18
Rea
l 20
15
Do
llars
Year
Red Oak Sawlog Real Prices
Prime Real #1 Real #2 Real Blocking Real
Black Cherry Sawlog Real Prices by Grade
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
19
60
19
61
19
62
19
63
19
64
19
65
19
67
19
68
19
70
19
71
19
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19
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19
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19
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19
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19
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19
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19
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19
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19
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19
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99
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00
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03
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05
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06
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08
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09
20
11
20
12
20
14
20
15
20
17
20
18
Rea
l 20
15
Do
llars
Year
Black Cherry Sawlog Real Prices
Prime Real #1 Real #2 Real Blocking Real
Hard Maple Sawlog Real Prices by Grade
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
19
60
19
61
19
62
19
63
19
64
19
65
19
67
19
68
19
70
19
71
19
73
19
74
19
76
19
77
19
79
19
80
19
82
19
83
19
85
19
86
19
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19
89
19
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19
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19
94
19
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19
97
19
99
20
00
20
03
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05
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06
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08
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09
20
11
20
12
20
14
20
15
20
17
20
18
Rea
l 20
15
Do
llars
Year
Hard Maple Sawlog Real Prices
Prime Real #1 Real #2 Real Blocking Real
Comparison with Indiana
Ohio and Indiana Real Prices for Walnut Prime Grade and #2 Common
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2015 2016 2016 2017 2017 2018 2018
Rea
l 20
15
Do
llars
Year
Ohio and Indiana Walnut Prime Grade and #2 Common Real Prices
IN Prime R OH Prime R IN #2 R OH #2 R
Ohio and Indiana Real Prices for White Oak Prime Grade and #2 Common Sawlogs
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2015 2016 2016 2017 2017 2018 2018
Rea
l 20
15
Do
llars
Year
Ohio and Indiana White Oak Prime Grade and #2 Common Real Prices
IN Prime R OH Prime R IN #2 R OH #2 R
Ohio and Indiana Real Prices for Red Oak Prime Grade and #2 Common Sawlogs
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2015 2016 2016 2017 2017 2018 2018
Rea
l 20
15
Do
llars
Year
Ohio and Indiana Red Oak Prime Grade and #2 Common Real Prices
IN Prime R OH Prime R IN #2 R OH #2 R
Ohio and Indiana Real Prices for Prime Grade and #2 Common Sawlogs
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2015 2016 2016 2017 2017 2018 2018
Rea
l 20
15
Do
llars
Year
Ohio and Indiana Hard Maple Prime Grade and #2 Common Real Prices
IN Prime R OH Prime R IN #2 R OH #2 R
Economic Outlook
Source: Oregon Forest Products Industry Directory
Each million board feet of logs harvested and processed into wood products (except furniture) resulted in:
Employment of 1.2 loggers.
Employment for 7.2 other people.
$518,454 in wages and benefits.
$568,472 in total value added.
$1.5 million in economic activity throughout the state’s economy.
What to Watch Out For
The housing market—showing some signs of cooling.
Chinese and European economies.
Trade wars, tariffs, and trade talks.
Stability and predictability in U.S. government actions.
And, of course, we must not forget….Twitter!
Sayeed R. Mehmood, PhD
Associate Professor
Natural Resource Economics
School of Environment and Natural Resources
2021 Coffey Road
Columbus, OH 43210
Phone: (614) 688 2211
Email: mehmood.9@osu.edu
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