topic 9 fsp descriptive statistics
Post on 16-May-2015
934 Views
Preview:
TRANSCRIPT
Descriptive Statistics
Policy Perceptions on Food Security:Abuse of Averages
Source: Suryanarayana (2011) in India Development Report 2011
3
11th Five Year Plan on Food Security
• Sustained solution to morbidity• All the more so,
Stagnant incomes of the poorPerverse changes in consumption patterns –
decline in cereal shareTrend reduction in average cereal consumption
Policy Perceptions on Food Security
4
11th Five Year Plan on Food Security
Trend reduction in calorie intake – 8% in rural India - 3% in urban India between 1983 and 2004-05
Average calorie intake fall increasingly short of official poverty line norms: 2400 kcals rural India 2100 kcals urban India
Policy Perceptions on Food Security
5
Incidence of Poverty (million): 1983-2004
19831993
2004
50.00
100.00
150.00
200.00
250.00
300.00
251.96
244.03
220.92
70.9476.34
80.80
Rural UrbanPolicy Perceptions on Food Security
6
Incidence of Calorie Deficiency (%)Norms: 2400 Kcal (Rural); 2100 Kcal (Urban)
1983 1987/88 1993/94 1999/00 2004/050
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
66.1 65.9
71.174.2
79.8
60.557.1 58.1 58.2
63.964.8 63.967.8
70.1
75.8
RuralUrbanAll India
Policy Perceptions on Food Security
7
11th Five Year Plan on Food Security
Consequences - Nutritional outcome parameters like low birth weights of newborn babies, anthropometric measures
Policy Perceptions on Food Security
8
Review
• Estimates of consumption patternsAverages at current prices conceal rather than
reveal dynamics of change.Reflect changes in relative prices and not real
changes in consumption patterns.Current price estimates exaggerate the extent of
changes.
Policy Perceptions on Food Security
9
Review
Cereal share, of course, has declined though not to the extent as revealed by current price estimates.
Per capita cereal expenditure increased for the bottom three decile groups but not quantities – dynamics of agricultural development.
Calorie intake increased for the bottom decile groups decreased for the top ones: convergence at a lower level.
Policy Perceptions on Food Security
10
0
5
10
15
20
25
301
96
0-6
1
62
-63
64
-65
66
-67
68
-69
70
-71
72
-73
74
-75
76
-77
78
-79
80
-81
19
83
84
-85
86
-87
88
-89
90
-91
93
-94
Rs
at
19
60
-61
pri
ce
s
Year
Monthly Per-Capita Consumer Expenditure by the Poorest Decile Groups and Total Population: All-India Rural
Poorest Decile Group (PDG) 2nd PDG 3rd PDG 4th PDG 5th PDG Total Rural
Policy Perceptions on Food Security
11
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Poorest DG2nd PDG
3rd PDG4th PDG
5th PDGTotal Rural
Kg pe
r mon
th
Decile Group
Per Capita Cereal Consumption: All India Rural
1954-55 1960-61 1977-78 1983 1993-94 1999-00 2004-05
Policy Perceptions on Food Security
12
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1954-551960-61
1977-781983
1993-94
Sh
are
(per
cen
t)
Year
Cereal Consumption Composition of the Poorest Decile Group: All-India Rural
Rice Wheat Coarse cereals
Policy Perceptions on Food Security
13
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1954-551960-61
1977-781983
1993-94
Sh
are
(per
cen
t)
Year
Cereal Consumption Composition of Total Population: All-India Rural
Rice Wheat Coarse cereals
Policy Perceptions on Food Security
14
Consequences
• Incidence of calorie deficiency increased by conventional norms but not so by convergence norms.
Policy Perceptions on Food Security
What is the evidence by disaggregate population groups?
16
0
5
10
15
20
25
1972/73 1983 1993/94 1999/2000 2004/05
kg s
per
mon
th
Year
Per Capita Cereal Consumption by Decile Groups:All India Rural
Decile Group I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X
Policy Perceptions on Food Security
17
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1972/73 1983 1993/94 1999/2000 2004/05
kgs
per m
onth
Year
Per Capita Cereal Consumption by Decile Groups: All India Urban
Decile Group I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X
Policy Perceptions on Food Security
18
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
1972/73 1983 1993/94 1999/00 2004/05
kcal
s per
diem
Year
Per Capita Calorie Intake by Decile Groups: All India Rural
Decile Group I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X Norm
Policy Perceptions on Food Security
19
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
1972/73 1983 1993/94 1999/00 2004/05
kcal
s per
diem
Year
Per Capita Calorie Intake by Decile Group: All India Urban
Decile Group I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X Norm
Policy Perceptions on Food Security
20
Incidence of Malnutrition: StatesA
ndhr
a Pr
ades
h
Ass
am
Bih
arC
hatti
shga
rh
Guj
arat
Har
yana
Jhar
khan
dK
arna
taka
Ker
ala
Mah
aras
htra
Mad
hya
Prad
esh
Oris
sa
Punj
abR
ajas
than
Tam
il N
adu
Utta
ranc
hal
Utta
r Pra
desh
Wes
t Ben
gal
Indi
a0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
51.8
47.3
Proportion (%) of Underweight Children: Major States
1992-931998-992005-06
Pro
por
tion
(%
)
Policy Perceptions on Food Security
Growth Rate
A Story of Computations
22
Assess Growth performance pre- and post-reform Source: Government of India (2003): Economic Survey 2002-2003, p. S – 4.
Year Annual Growth Rate (%)in Per Capita Net National Product (at 1993/94 prices)
1985-86 2.1
1986-87 1.8
1987-88 1.2
1988-89 8.3
1989-90 4.6
1990-91 3.3
1991-92 -1.5
1992-93 3.1
1993-94 3.4
1994-95 4.9
1995-96 5.2
1996-97 6.1
1997-98 2.6
Growth Rate
23
SECTORS 1999-2000 2000-2001 2001-2002 2002-2003* 2003-04* 2004-05* 2005-06 * 2006-07* 2007-08* 2008-09+
1.1 Agriculture 3455054 3287801 3480299 3580625 3976855 3715719 4047401 4515299 4985079 3929665
1.2 Forestry 171997 159797 162504 155770 151688 134022 133559 144553 143940 136430
1.3 Fishing 82425 78127 81497 78708 81104 71796 80472 79440 78720 69081
1.Agriculture & Allied Activities 3709476 3525725 3724300 3815103 4209647 3921537 4261433 4739292 5207738 4135176
2.Mining & Quarrying 155625 165329 173300 184801 202241 215049 222812 236126 256201 219964
Primary Sector 3865101 3691054 3897600 3999904 4411888 4136586 4484245 4975418 5463939 4355140
3.1 Registered 3123876 2487223 2321190 2625334 3000532 3323943 3598169 3997157 4282590 4276802
3.2 Un registered 1010431 1087980 1055441 1127456 1186591 1272930 1366229 1514549 1638527 1611735
3.Manufacturing Total 4134307 3575203 3376631 3752790 4187123 4596872 4964398 5511706 5921116 5888538
4.Electricity,gas and and water supply 382856 447933 357175 430124 445522 523478 561244 543319 629107 645785
5.Construction 1291990 1134730 1262882 1262050 1374345 1398070 1486430 2083731 2599522 3328045
Secondary Sector 5809152 5157866 4996688 5444965 6006990 6518421 7012072 8138755 9149745 9862367
Sectorwise GDP: Maharashtra (at 1999-2000 prices)
Growth Rate
24
2000-2001
2001-2002
2002-2003*
2003-04*
2004-05*
2005-06 *
2006-07*
2007-08*
2008-09+ CAGR
1.1 Agriculture (4.84) 5.85 2.88 11.07 (6.57) 8.93 11.56 10.40 (21.17) 1.44 1.2 Forestry (7.09) 1.69 (4.14) (2.62) (11.65) (0.35) 8.23 (0.42) (5.22) (2.54)1.3 Fishing (5.21) 4.31 (3.42) 3.04 (11.48) 12.09 (1.28) (0.91) (12.24) (1.94)1.Agriculture & Allied Activities (4.95) 5.63 2.44 10.34 (6.84) 8.67 11.21 9.88 (20.60) 1.21 2.Mining & Quarrying 6.24 4.82 6.64 9.44 6.33 3.61 5.98 8.50 (14.14) 3.92
Primary Sector (4.50) 5.60 2.62 10.30 (6.24) 8.40 10.95 9.82 (20.29) 1.34 3.1 Registered (20.38) (6.68) 13.10 14.29 10.78 8.25 11.09 7.14 (0.14) 3.55 3.2 Un registered 7.67 (2.99) 6.82 5.24 7.28 7.33 10.86 8.19 (1.64) 5.33 3.Manufacturing Total (13.52) (5.55) 11.14 11.57 9.79 8.00 11.02 7.43 (0.55) 4.01 4.Electricity,gas and and water supply 17.00 (20.26) 20.42 3.58 17.50 7.21 (3.19) 15.79 2.65 5.98 5.Construction (12.17) 11.29 (0.07) 8.90 1.73 6.32 40.18 24.75 28.03 11.09
Secondary Sector (11.21) (3.12) 8.97 10.32 8.51 7.57 16.07 12.42 7.79 6.06 Industry Sector (10.76) (2.88) 8.89 10.29 8.44 7.45 15.76 12.31 7.19 6.01
Annual Growth rates
Growth Rate
25
Regression based Trend growth ratesSECTORS Trend growth
1.1 Agriculture 3.501.2 Forestry -2.391.3 Fishing -1.041.Agriculture & Allied Activities 3.19
2.Mining & Quarrying 5.19Primary Sector 3.28
3.1 Registered 6.503.2 Un registered 5.94
3.Manufacturing Total 6.314.Electricity,gas and water supply 6.345.Construction 11.07
Secondary Sector 7.58Industry Sector 7.51
Growth Rate
top related