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Transport Outlook Modelling Programme and Preliminary Local Travel Model Results
Ralph D. Samuelson, Ministry of Transport
How Transport Outlook’s Models Fill a Need
► Almost all policy analysis requires projecting the future, such as:
► travel demand and traffic volumes
► fuel use/emissions
► public health and safety
► Models can bring consistency and rigour to these projections
► However, in order to provide maximum value, the models should be consistent and continually improved
► Outlook’s modelling effort is therefore very much a means to a broader end: developing an ongoing in-house modelling capability at MoT
2
Outlook’s Set of Interlinked, System-Level Models
3
Aviation Sector Local Travel Sector Freight Sector
Domestic Air
Travel
International
Air Travel
Airport Departures/ Leg-
Based Air Travel
Aircraft Vehicle-
Kilometres
Travelled/ Fleet
Aircraft Fuel and Emissions
Household Travel
Vehicle-Kilometres
Travelled/Vehicle
Numbers
Road Fleet/Fuel/
Emissions
Health
Outcomes
Freight Flows
Freight Tonne-
KM by Region
Rail/Shipping
Fuel/Emissions
The Base Scenario
►The Base Scenario portrays where demography and economic growth alone is likely to take us, assuming no changes in either technology or consumer behaviour
►Does not take into account planned infrastructure investments
►Exception: Public transport in Auckland is based on Auckland Transport projections incorporating the City Rail Link and other planned public transport enhancements in Auckland
► In this sense it is a very ‘business as usual’ scenario
► Not a mid-point of the four alternative scenarios
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Base Scenario – Projected Number of Trips (All Modes)
5
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
2012/13 2017/18 2022/23 2027/28 2032/33 2037/38 2042/43
Mill
ion
s o
f Tr
ips/
Year
Light vehicle driver Light vehicle passenger Pedestrian Public transport Bike, motorcycle, vehicle share/taxi, other
Base Scenario – Change in Local Trips Per Capita by Mode
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2012/13 2042/43
Light vehicle driver 695.5 703.2
Light vehicle
passenger 340.6 292.1
Pedestrian 222.1 210.6
Bus 30.5 42.1
Cyclist 16.0 14.4
Train 4.6 10.9
Motorcycle 4.3 3.8
Vehicle share, taxi 3.5 4.5
Ferry 1.3 1.4
Other 2.3 2.7
TOTAL 1,321.8 1,285.7
Base Scenario – Percent Change in Population and Trips by Region 2012/13->2042/43
7 * Based on Statistics New Zealand Medium Projection 2013(base)
Five Scenarios: Base Case + Four Alternatives
8
“Staying Close to the Action”
scenario: Live in Transit-
Friendly/Dense Big Cities
“Golden Triangle”
scenario: Live in
Suburban/Sprawling
Big Cities
“@Home in Town and Country”
scenario: Live and Work
Anywhere You Please
“Metro Connected”
scenario: Live in Big and
Smaller Cities
Moderate Technological Progress/
Economic Growth/Population Growth
Face-to-Face
Interaction
Highly Valued
Digital
Communications
Can Substitute for
Transport
Rapid Technological Progress/Economic
Growth/Population Growth
Comparison of Projected 2042/43 Population by Region by Scenario
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Comparison of Projected 2042/43 Distance Travelled Per Person by Mode in New Zealand
10
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
An
nu
al K
M p
er P
erso
n
Vehicle share/taxi
Bike/motorcycle/other
Pedestrian
Public transport
Light vehicle passenger
Light vehicle driver
Comparison of Projected 2042/43 Distance Travelled per Person by Mode in the Auckland Region
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Comparison of New Zealand Vehicle Kilometres Travelled Across Scenarios
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Comparison of Auckland Region Vehicle Kilometres Travelled Across Scenarios
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Where to From Here?
► Currently reviewing model results and preparing for publication
► Outlook to be published in March
► Plans are to publish on-line:
► Model results in full detail
► Models themselves, for those who wish to extend the analysis
► The project does not end in March:
► Continually improve the models
► Respond to needs as they are identified
► Produce updated editions of the Outlook publication
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