transportation technology infrastructure: a smarter …...2018/11/15  · (2015);morgan stanley...

2018 Best Best & Krieger LLP

Transportation Technology Infrastructure: A Smarter Future Requires Smarter

InfrastructureBB&K Transportation Technology Webinar Series

November 15, 2018

@smartertranspo

Company/BestBestKrieger

SMART MOBILITY IN CITIES

AUTONOMOUS AND CONNECTED

• “Smart” Infrastructure Discussion Needed

• Sensors?• Antennas?• V2X?

• Local control of ROW• ITS / “Spectrum”

PROPOSED “TIPs” FOR LAYING FOUNDATION

• Opportunity to promote Vision• Important “Smart” Issues:

• Data Sharing• Privacy and Cybersecurity• Land Use • Health and Safety (i.e. Disposal) • Resiliency• Coordination with Law Enforcement

DATA, DATA, DATA….

INFORMED CONSENT TO INFORMED RISK?

SMART CITY CHALLENGE

• $40 million to ONE city to fully integrate innovative technologies – self-driving cars, connected vehicles and smart sensors

• Finalists: Austin, TX; Columbus, OH; Denver, CO; Kansas City, MO; Pittsburgh, PA; Portland, OR; and San Francisco, CA

• Winner: Columbus, OH• Information Sharing / Best Practices Development

• For more information: https://www.transportation.gov/smartcity

FAST ACT EXPIRES IN 2020

• Issues on the horizon for smart infrastructure discussion as part of surface transportation reauthorization bill:

• Balancing traditional surface transportation with new “first/last” mile projects using emerging technologies

• Controlled modernization that also considers maintenance • Remaining tech neutral • Role of public vs. private sector • New revenue models to replace aging “gas tax”

MAKE YOUR VOICES HEARD

• Ongoing comment opportunities:• ANPRM for AV Pilot Programs – Due Nov. 23• AV 3.0 – Due Dec. 7

• Comment opportunities “down the road”:• Streamlining FMVSS exemption process• Automated Driving Systems and Commercial Trucks• Update to Uniform Traffic Control Devices Manual

2018 Best Best & Krieger LLP

GREG RODRIGUEZ@smartertranspo

Best Best & Krieger LLP

Washington, D.C.

greg.rodriguez@bbklaw.com

www.bbklaw.com

Transportation Technology

Infrastructure: A Smarter Future Requires Smarter Infrastructure

Stephen Buckley, P.E., AICP

November 15, 2018

BB&K Transportation Technology Webinar Series

Electric Shared

AutomatedConnected

New Mobility

Source: WSP, 2017.

New Mobility

Private Ownership Model

Driven by Auto Industry

Incremental Moves in Functionalities

Privately Owned

Here Today

Primarily Driven by Tech and Ride-Hailing Companies

Jump to Fully Automated

Mobility-as-a-Service

A few (or many, many) years away

Shared Mobility Model (MaaS/TaaS/Robo-taxis)

Two Paths

Speed of

Technological

Advancement

Economics Public

Acceptance

Political Support Market for a

Shared Model

Key Factors

Waymo Miles Driven

Source: Waymo Tweet, .October 11, 2018

And on Tuesday……

Waymo to Start First Driverless Car Service Next Month Bloomberg, November 13, 2018

GOOGLE SPIN-OFF WAYMO SET TO BEAT UBER AND LYFT TO LAUNCH SELF-DRIVING TAXI SERVICE

Anthony Cuthbertson, The Independent, November 14, 2018

Waymo CEO Says Alphabet Unit Plans to Launch Driverless Car Service in Coming Months

Douglas MacMillan and Tim Higgins, The Wall

Street Journal, November 14, 2018

Annual Market Value of Shared Mobility in 2030

$0.0

$0.5

$1.0

$1.5

$2.0

$2.5

$3.0

An

nu

al M

ark

et V

alu

e

($U

S T

)

Uber orders up to 24,000 Volvo XC90s for driverless fleet

Darrell Etherington, TechCrunch November 21, 2017

Waymo Orders Up to 20,000 Jaguar SUVs for Driverless Fleet – WSJ

Wall Street Journal, March 27, 2018

Up to 62,000 additional Chrysler Pacifica Hybrid minivans will join Waymo's driverless fleet, starting in late 2018

PRNewswire, May 31, 2018

Things are Heating Up…..

Political Support

Gov. Doug Ducey welcomes Uber self-driving cars with open arms

The Arizona Republic, December 23, 2016

Uber, Lyft dealt a major blow after New York City votes to cap vehicle licenses

Seung Lee, www.mercurynews.com, August 8, 2018

Ride-Hailing Companies Agree to Tax in San Francisco James Brasuell,

www.planetizen.com, August 18, 2018

Impacts to Transit

Average Length of Transit Trips (2011)

Source: APTA 2011 Fact Book

Source: http://uberestimate.com/prices/Philadelphia/ (April 14, 2018); ARK Investment Management (2015);Morgan Stanley (2016); World Economic Forum/ Boston Consulting Group (2016)

$0.00

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

Shared AVs (2030)

Shared AV Mobility Vehicle Cost Per Mile

Potential Shared AV Markets

How Might This Play Out?

Slow Roll

Slow Roll

Competing

Private

Slow Roll

Competing

Private

Cooperative Private

Slow Roll

Competing

Private

Cooperative Private

Integrated

Slow Roll

Competing

Private

Cooperative Private

Integrated

Slow Roll

Competing

Private

Cooperative Private

Integrated

From Transit Agency to Mobility Integrator

Wildcards

Public Backlash Regarding

Data and Privacy

Catastrophic

Event

So, are there infrastructure planning opportunities for New Mobility?

• Not sure if many of these models actually pencil out

• Most operators are keeping their plans close to the vest and appear to be seeking infrastructure-lite solutions

• Many major capacity expansion projects will be questioned

• Public sector agencies are not sure of what they need

ITS and Opportunities

• Connected will likely make automated better

• Public sector agencies are struggling to understand how they should invest

• There will be concerns about public sector liability

Funding Strategies

• Recognizing that the gas tax will slowly (or quickly) erode, many states are now exploring options

• Limited interest in traditional cordon congestion pricing

• A digitally-mapped world with GPS-enabled vehicles permits a virtually unlimited number of options for pricing around:

• Road usage• Congestion pricing

Modernizing Infrastructure

• Continued focus on state of good repair

• Infrastructure-lite solutions

• Public sector organizations need to think about digital infrastructure and strategies

Key Takeaways

• Shared AVs will create new options, but primarily in urban areas

• Both the private and public sector will be seeking low-risk, infrastructure-lite solutions

• Pricing can influence demand for these services, so defensible pricing models will help the public sector manage this new world

• We need to begin to rethink the mission and roles of our departments of transportation and transit agencies

“The best way to predict

the future is to create it.”

What We’re Reading

Resources

Resources

Resources

Resources

Resources

Transportation Technology

Infrastructure:A Smarter Future Requires Smarter Infrastructure

Stephen Buckley, P.E., AICP

stephen.buckley@wsp.com

www.advancingtransport.com