trisha muñoz, e.i.t civil engineering department cal poly pomona
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Do Alcohol and Other Drugs Significantly Affect Traffic Accident Types?Trisha Muñoz, E.I.TCivil Engineering DepartmentCal Poly Pomona
Introduction
• General safety background• Description of the research method and crash data
• Illustration of the results• Discussion and Conclusions
General Safety Background
Road traffic crashes: Huge burden
Pictures from: www.nhtsa.com and www.images.google.com
ROAD SAFETY STATUS 2005• Statistics (2005 – NHTSA Traffic Safety Facts)
• Fatal 43,443• Injury 2,699,000• Property Damage Only 4,304,000
• Traffic Crash Victims Killed Injured• Occupants
• Drivers 26,549 1,920,000
• Passengers 11,199 880,000
• Unknown 112• Nonmotorists
• Pedestrians 4,808 71,000• Pedalcyclists 662 48,000• Other/Unknown 113 7,000
7,046,443}
NHTSA Facts of Impaired Driving• Impaired driving is often a symptom of a larger
problem: alcohol misuse and abuse. • Alcohol-impaired motor vehicle crashes cost more
than an estimated $37 billion annually.• In 2010, more than 10,000 people died in alcohol-
impaired driving crashes - one every 51 minutes.
Sources: http://www.nhtsa.gov/Impaired
Focus of the presentation• Numerous Past research studies :
• driving performance is seriously impaired by alcohol and many other drugs.
• However, very few research studies: • identifying the effects of alcohol and other drugs on traffic accident types• rear-end• head on• sideswipe• fixed object• others
Research Method and Data Description
Normal Linear Regression Requires Three strong assumptions
• Normally distributed errors (i.e., residues)• Constant variance of errors• No relationships among the independent variables
(i.e., regressor variables, or predictors)
In This Study• The dependent variable y has categorical nature
(i.e., various accident types), which is not normally distributed
• Therefore, the Normal Linear Regression is not appropriate herein.
• Instead, we use Multinomial Logit Regression Model.
Multinomial Logit Regression Model
Arizona Crash Data• Road Sections from State Routes 77 and 83 in Tucson, AZ
• Total mileage: 83 miles
• Crash period: 6 years (Oct. 2003~ Sept. 2008)
• Information: crash, driver, vehicle, environment, roadway, etc.
Crash Information• Date & time• Day of week• Crash location• Crash severity ( No Injury; Possible Injury; Non-
incapacitating; Incapacitating; Fatal; unknown)• Collision type (rear-end, head-on, collision with
fixed objects, etc.)• Hit-and-run (yes, no)
Driver(s) Information• Sex • Age• Conditions influencing drivers (use of illicit drugs;
physical impairment, illness, etc.)• Violations (speed; made improper turn; ran stop
sign, etc.)• ……
Vehicle Information• Number of vehicles• Vehicle condition: (No apparent defects; defective
brakes; defective steering, etc.)• Vehicle type: (passenger cars, school bus, RVs,
pick up trucks, etc.)• Vehicle action: (making left-turn, making U-turn,
changing lanes, backing, etc.)
Roadway Information• Pavement material: ( concrete, asphalt, other)• Surface condition: (dry, wet, sand, ice, etc.)• Roadway defects• Roadway alignment-horizontal• Roadway alignment-vertical • Unusual roadway condition (no unusual
conditions, under repair, under construction-traffic detoured, etc.)
• Roadway characteristic (2-way striped median; 2-way painted median; 2-way raised median, etc.)
Environment Information
• Location classification (recreational, farm, business, school, etc.)
• Weather conditions (clear, not clear)• Light conditions (Daylight, others)• Traffic level (light, heavy& medium)• Speed limit
Description of Research Results
Some Notes of the Research Results
• To improve modeling accuracy, 3 models were estimated separately for various accident types• single vehicle• car colliding with car • car colliding with trucks.
• For the categorical accident types, level 1 (others) is used as the reference level.
• For the categorical driver physical conditions, level 1( others and unknown) is used as the reference level.
Results of Single Vehicle Model
Note: *- represents the parameters are statistically significant
Results of Car-Car Collision Model
Note: *- represents the parameters are statistically significant
Results of Car-Truck Collision Model
Note: *- represents the parameters are statistically significant
Discussion of Results• For all the three types of models (single vehicles,
car-car collision, and car-truck collision), the use of alcohol significantly affects the accident types.
• However, the use of illicit drug and other physical conditions has not shown an apparent influence to the types.
• Since the research study uses only the accident data from the State of Arizona, the study findings need further confirmation.
Conclusion
• General safety background• Description of the research method and crash data
• Illustration of the results• Discussion
THANK YOU!
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