trzcinski 12 12 11 ie [tryb zgodno [ci] · 2012-04-05 · impact evaluation seminar warsaw,...

2011

Example from enterprise Example from enterprise Example from enterprise Example from enterprise

Rafał Trzciński

Example from enterprise Example from enterprise Example from enterprise Example from enterprise support in Polandsupport in Polandsupport in Polandsupport in Poland

Impact Evaluation Seminar

Warsaw, 12.12.2011

Purpose of the evaluationPurpose of the evaluationPurpose of the evaluationPurpose of the evaluation

� Estimation of the impact of grants on growth of SMEs in Poland.Estimation of the impact of grants on growth of SMEs in Poland.Estimation of the impact of grants on growth of SMEs in Poland.Estimation of the impact of grants on growth of SMEs in Poland.

� Measure covered by the study:Improvement of competitiveness

of SMEs through investments (Measure 2.3) implemented within

Sectoral Operational Programme Improvement of the

Competitiveness of Enterprises, years 2004-2006 (SOP-ICE).

� Measure 2.3 was aimed at improvement of competitiveness of

Polish SMEs through modernisation of their product offer and

their technology base.

� Average value of the subsidy amounted to PLN 532 thousand.

Impact evaluation problemImpact evaluation problemImpact evaluation problemImpact evaluation problem

?

Factor x1

Factor x2

SOP-ICE

EffectsSELECTION

BIAS?

Problem: low

competitivenessof enterprises

SOP-ICE

The approachThe approachThe approachThe approach

� Counterfactual framework -> Q: what would have

happened in the absence of the intervention?

� Quasi-experimental approach was chosen.

� Control group was selected from unsuccessful

applicants.

� Method used to reduce the selection bias:

Propensity Score Matching.

Data sets used in the evaluationData sets used in the evaluationData sets used in the evaluationData sets used in the evaluation

� PARP data sets (databases of all applicants, with employment +9);

� 19 covariates were controlled, such as: age, revenues, size, legal form, assets, the use of other subsidies, etc.

� Central Statistical Office data sets (Report on � Central Statistical Office data sets (Report on revenues, costs and financial results and the cost of fixed assets);

� 31 outcome variables were estimated, such as: net revenues from sales, employment, expenditures, profits, etc.

Unsuccessful applicantsUnsuccessful applicantsUnsuccessful applicantsUnsuccessful applicantsControl groupControl groupControl groupControl group

ps= 0,8ps= 0,1

BeneficiariesBeneficiariesBeneficiariesBeneficiaries

Propensity Score Matching Propensity Score Matching Propensity Score Matching Propensity Score Matching (1(1(1(1----1; nearest neighbour)1; nearest neighbour)1; nearest neighbour)1; nearest neighbour)

ps= 0,6ps= 0,5

ps= 0,2

ps= 0,3ps= 0,2

ps= 0,01

ps= 0,4

ps= 0,9

ps= 0,8ps= 0,3

ps= 0,9ps= 0,4

ps= 0,1

Selection biasSelection biasSelection biasSelection bias

VariableVariableVariableVariable

TreatedTreatedTreatedTreated

((((meanmeanmeanmean

valuevaluevaluevalue))))

UntreatedUntreatedUntreatedUntreated

((((meanmeanmeanmean

valuevaluevaluevalue))))

ControlControlControlControl

groupgroupgroupgroup

((((meanmeanmeanmean valuevaluevaluevalue))))

TheTheTheThe standardizedstandardizedstandardizedstandardized

differencedifferencedifferencedifference inininin

percentpercentpercentpercent ((((beforebeforebeforebefore

matchingmatchingmatchingmatching))))

TheTheTheThe standardizedstandardizedstandardizedstandardized

differencedifferencedifferencedifference inininin

percentpercentpercentpercent ((((afterafterafterafter

matchingmatchingmatchingmatching))))

Age of the company 10,31 10,41 10,13 -1,12 2,28

Revenues (in total) 50409,24 74320,05 62275,93 -4,74 -2,35

Revenue growth before the programe (comparing 2 periods)

0,72 0,59 0,73 26,72 -2,35

Assets (in toatal) 32676,70 75478,18 30319,08 -2,78 0,15

Assets growth before the programe (comparing 2 periods)

0,70 0,60 0,70 20,12 -0,35

Value of deminimis 13802,67 9826,17 11593,88 5,22 2,90

Total employment 70,34 44,77 71,15 47,44 -1,50

Employment growth before the programme

0,66 0,57 0,66 18,88 -0,46programme

0,66 0,57 0,66 18,88 -0,46

Difference in employment 7,29 4,20 7,73 17,62 -2,49

Percentage of women 0,27 0,33 0,27 -25,82 0,98

Number of contracts signed in Phare 1,15 0,45 1,06 53,95 6,87

Value of signed contracts in Phare 15502,53 5301,36 13934,88 46,73 7,18

Application in SOP-ICE Measure 2.1 0,06 0,02 0,06 21,45 2,77

Contract in SOP-ICE Measure 2.1 0,04 0,01 0,03 20,24 2,60

Contract in SOP-HRD Measure 2.3 0,08 0,04 0,09 15,92 -2,28

Credit 0,70 0,53 0,68 34,68 4,86

Project area … … … … …

Region … … … … …

Legal form … … … … …

PKD code … … … … …

Date of measurementDate of measurementDate of measurementDate of measurement

2004

2007 200840%

50%

60%

70%

80%

2003

2006

2007

2007

2008

2008

2009

2009

2010

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

PRE POST+1 POST+2

4 4 4 4 yearsyearsyearsyears (on (on (on (on averageaverageaverageaverage)))) 1 1 1 1 yearyearyearyear

Employment and wages costsEmployment and wages costsEmployment and wages costsEmployment and wages costs

2 429

4 374 4 666

2 339

3 8524 065

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

WagesWagesWagesWages costscostscostscosts (i(i(i(in PLN n PLN n PLN n PLN thousandthousandthousandthousand))))

80,1%↑↑↑↑

64,7%↑↑↑↑

6,7%↑↑↑↑

5,5%↑↑↑↑

125124

114 112

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

Average employment (in FTEs)Average employment (in FTEs)Average employment (in FTEs)Average employment (in FTEs)

37,8%↑↑↑↑

24,4%↑↑↑↑

-0,6%↓↓↓↓

-2,0%↓↓↓↓

0

500

1 000

1 500

PRE POST+1 POST+2

beneficiaries (N=763) control group (N=763)

9192

80

85

90

95

PRE POST+1 POST+2

beneficiaries (N=763) control group (N=763)

Impact: +14 FTEs Impact: +PLN 511thousand

Net revenues from salesNet revenues from salesNet revenues from salesNet revenues from sales

40 683 41 894

33 195 34 07330 000

35 000

40 000

45 000

68,5%↑↑↑↑

3,0%↑↑↑↑

2,6%↑↑↑↑

24 140

21 530

15 000

20 000

25 000

PRE POST+1 POST+2

beneficiaries (N=763) control group (N=763)

54,2%↑↑↑↑

Impact: +PLN 5 211 thousand

Operating expensesOperating expensesOperating expensesOperating expenses

22 205

37 844 39 005

20 132

31 066

31 927

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

40 000

45 000

70,4%↑↑↑↑

54,3%↑↑↑↑

3,1%↑↑↑↑

2,8%↑↑↑↑

20 132

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

PRE POST+1 POST+2

beneficiaries (N=763) control group (N=763)

Impact: +PLN 5 006 thousand

Losses Losses Losses Losses –––– scale of the phenomenonscale of the phenomenonscale of the phenomenonscale of the phenomenon

15,4%

20,7%

11,9%

18,8%

23,5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

LossLossLossLoss on on on on salessalessalessales

164,9%↑↑↑↑

34,3%↑↑↑↑58,7%↑↑↑↑

24,5%↑↑↑↑

11,9%

15,4%13,7%

19,2%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Net Net Net Net losslosslossloss

40,2%↑↑↑↑

114,0%↑↑↑↑ 29,7%↑↑↑↑

5,8%

0%

5%

PRE POST+1 POST+2

beneficiaries (N=763) control group (N=763)

164,9%↑↑↑↑

2,6%

6,4%

0%

5%

PRE POST+1 POST+2

beneficiaries (N=763) control group (N=763)

363,9%↑↑↑↑

Impact: +3,3% Impact: zero

LossesLossesLossesLosses

3 416

4 795

2 4162 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

Net Net Net Net losslosslossloss (i(i(i(in PLN n PLN n PLN n PLN thousandthousandthousandthousand))))

565,2%↑↑↑↑

40,4%↑↑↑↑

-33,8%↓↓↓↓1 4281 141

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

LossLossLossLoss on on on on salessalessalessales (i(i(i(in PLN n PLN n PLN n PLN thousandthousandthousandthousand) ) ) )

66,5%↑↑↑↑

514653

1 600

0

1 000

PRE POST+1 POST+2

beneficiaries (NPRE=19; NPOST+1=81; NPOST+2=102)

control group (NPRE=46; NPOST+1=92; NPOST+2=123)

269,9%↑↑↑↑426

858534

1 141

1 1770

1 000

PRE POST+1 POST+2

beneficiaries (NPRE=42; NPOST+1=102; NPOST+2=131)

control group (NPRE=81; NPOST+1=121; NPOST+2=145)

66,5%↑↑↑↑

101,6%↑↑↑↑ 3,1%↑↑↑↑113,5%↑↑↑↑

Impact: +PLN 360 thousand Impact: +PLN 3 335 thousand

ProfitsProfitsProfitsProfits

2 073

3 409 3 784

1 627

2 7462 926

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

Profit on Profit on Profit on Profit on salessalessalessales

6,6%↑↑↑↑68,8%↑↑↑↑

11,0%↑↑↑↑

64,5%↑↑↑↑

1 672

2 875 2 946

1 249

2 3112 275

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

Net profitNet profitNet profitNet profit

84,9%↑↑↑↑-1,5%↓↓↓↓

72,0%↑↑↑↑2,5%↑↑↑↑

1 627

0

1 000

PRE POST+1 POST+2

beneficiaries (NPRE=721; NPOST+1=661; NPOST+2=632)

control group (NPRE=682; NPOST+1=642; NPOST+2=618)

1 249

0

1 000

PRE POST+1 POST+2

beneficiaries (NPRE=741; NPOST+1=681; NPOST+2=661)

control group (NPRE=717; NPOST+1=670; NPOST+2=639)

84,9%↑↑↑↑

Impact: +PLN 412 thousand Impact: +PLN 248 thousand

Asset TurnoverAsset TurnoverAsset TurnoverAsset Turnover

1,92

1,51

1,96

1,641,58

1,60

1,80

2,00

2,20

-21,1%↓↓↓↓ -3,5%↓↓↓↓

-16,4%↓↓↓↓

1,511,44

1,00

1,20

1,40

PRE POST+1 POST+2

beneficiaries (N=763) control group (N=763)

-5,0%↓↓↓↓

Impact: -0,10

TTTTotalotalotalotal expenditures on expenditures on expenditures on expenditures on ttttangibleangibleangibleangible fixed assets in usefixed assets in usefixed assets in usefixed assets in use

1 144

2 274 2 226

1 287

1 516

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

TTTTotalotalotalotal expendituresexpendituresexpendituresexpenditures............

98,7%↑↑↑↑

48,3%↑↑↑↑

-2,1%↓↓↓↓

17,8%↑↑↑↑1 203

1 2201 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

ExpendituresExpendituresExpendituresExpenditures of enterprises on of enterprises on of enterprises on of enterprises on machinerymachinerymachinerymachinery and and and and

technicaltechnicaltechnicaltechnical equipmentequipmentequipmentequipment

91,3%↑↑↑↑1,4%↑↑↑↑

8,8%↑↑↑↑868

0

500

1 000

PRE POST+1 POST+2

beneficiaries (N=763) control group (N=763)

629

442587 638

0

500

PRE POST+1 POST+2

beneficiaries (N=763) control group (N=763)

32,7%↑↑↑↑8,8%↑↑↑↑

Impact: +PLN 434 thousand Impact: +PLN 395 thousand

LiabilitiesLiabilitiesLiabilitiesLiabilities

1 080

2 323 2 443

1 8281 828

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

ShortShortShortShort----termtermtermterm liabilitiesliabilitiesliabilitiesliabilities: : : : creditscreditscreditscredits and and and and loansloansloansloans

115,1%↑↑↑↑

98,2%↑↑↑↑

5,2%↑↑↑↑

0,0%→→→→ 1 7992 015

1 521

1 566

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

LongLongLongLong----term term term term liabilitiesliabilitiesliabilitiesliabilities: : : : creditscreditscreditscredits and and and and loansloansloansloans

171,9%↑↑↑↑

12,0%↑↑↑↑

2,9%↑↑↑↑

923

0

500

1 000

PRE POST+1 POST+2

beneficiaries (N=763) control group (N=763)

98,2%↑↑↑↑

662584

0

500

1 000

PRE POST+1 POST+2

beneficiaries (N=763) control group (N=763)

160,4%↑↑↑↑

Impact: +PLN 458 thousand Impact: +PLN 372 thousand

ExportExportExportExport

3 659

6 965

6 830

5 579

4 544

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

8 000

NNNNet income from sales of et income from sales of et income from sales of et income from sales of productsproductsproductsproducts for for for for

exportexportexportexport

90,4%↑↑↑↑

-1,9%↓↓↓↓

95,6%↑↑↑↑-18,6%↓↓↓↓

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

8 000

NNNNet income from sales of goods and et income from sales of goods and et income from sales of goods and et income from sales of goods and

materials for exportmaterials for exportmaterials for exportmaterials for export

2 853

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

PRE POST+1 POST+2

beneficiaries (N=763) control group (N=763)

537 794837

6411 255 1 694

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

PRE POST+1 POST+2

beneficiaries (N=763) control group (N=763)

5,3% ↑↑↑↑47,9%↑↑↑↑

95,6%↑↑↑↑35,0%↑↑↑↑

Impact: +PLN 1 479 thousand Impact: -PLN 753 thousand

Value of purchases in total importsValue of purchases in total importsValue of purchases in total importsValue of purchases in total imports

3 301

6 0596 066

2 945

4 4254 402

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

83,5%↑↑↑↑

50,3% ↑↑↑↑

0,1%↑↑↑↑

-0,5%↓↓↓↓

0

1 000

2 000

PRE POST+1 POST+2

beneficiaries (N=763) control group (N=763)

Impact: +PLN 1 307 thousand

StructureStructureStructureStructure of importsof importsof importsof imports

2290

3965 4057

2318 21972000

3000

4000

5000

IIIImportmportmportmport ofofofof raw materials and raw materials and raw materials and raw materials and semifinishedsemifinishedsemifinishedsemifinished

products for productionproducts for productionproducts for productionproducts for production

73,2%↑↑↑↑2,3%↑↑↑↑

-5,2%↓↓↓↓ 18882067

2000

3000

4000

5000

IIIImportmportmportmport of goods intended for resaleof goods intended for resaleof goods intended for resaleof goods intended for resale

47,2% ↑↑↑↑9,5% ↑↑↑↑

1587

2318 2197

0

1000

2000

PRE POST+1 POST+2

beneficiaries (N=763) control group (N=763)

46,1% ↑↑↑↑-5,2%↓↓↓↓

880

1662 15561282

1888

0

1000

2000

PRE POST+1 POST+2

beneficiaries (N=763) control group (N=763)

89,0%↑↑↑↑-6,4%↓↓↓↓

47,2% ↑↑↑↑

Impact: +PLN 1 158 thousand Impact: -PLN 109 thousand

Current ratioCurrent ratioCurrent ratioCurrent ratio

1,63

1,66 1,65

1,55 1,62 1,64

1,40

1,50

1,60

1,70

1,80

1,90

2,00

-0,6%↓↓↓↓

1,4%↑↑↑↑4,2%↑↑↑↑

1,7%↑↑↑↑

1,00

1,10

1,20

1,30

PRE POST+1 POST+2

beneficiaries (N=763) control group (N=763)

Impact: -0,07

� Main positive impacts:

� Employment and wages.

� Export and import (production activity).

� Profits.

SummarySummarySummarySummary

� Expenditures on tangible fixed assets in use

(machinery and technical equipment).

� Main negative impacts, or no impact:

� Productivity of the enterprises.

� Losses and their amount.

� Liquidity of the enterprises.

More on this…More on this…More on this…More on this…

www.parp.gov.pl/index/more/24238

Thank you for your attention!Thank you for your attention!Thank you for your attention!Thank you for your attention!

Polish Agency for Enterprise Development

81/83 Pańska Street

00-834 Warsaw, Poland

Tel + 48 (22) 432 80 80

Fax + 48 (22) 432 86 20

+ 48 (22) 432 84 04

Infoline: + 48 (22) 432 89 91/92/93

www.parp.gov.pl