u of a medicine class of 2016/17 career planning series

U of A Medicine Class of 2016/17

Career Planning SeriesEric Wasylenko MD BSc MHSc

January 15, 2014

Highlight past and current workforce planning efforts Contextualize planning efforts as a predictive tool for

career planning Review a few strategies that might have utility for

career planning Try to provide some helpful perspective, to allay

concern

Objectives

Past efforts (what went wrong and right?) Current modelling, reports and resources (singing their

praises and notes of interpretive caution) Context and forward-looking trends (“Who wants to be

a futurist?”) Finishing notes (with hints of floral and peat) Discussion (the nitty-gritty)

Outline

No conflicts of interest This session is supported by the Alberta

Medical Association

Declaration

Alberta Medical Association, Cian Hackett Lynda Buske (CMA) c3pr website http://cma.ca/c3pr Frechette, D., Hollenberg, D., Shrichand, A., Jacob, C., & Datta, I. 2013.

What’s really behind Canada’s unemployed specialists? Too many, too

doctors? Findings from the Royal College’s employment study. Ottawa, Ontario: The Royal College of Physicians and Surgeons of Canada.

Alberta – former PRPC reports National – former NAWG reports

Acknowledgements

Alberta efforts and results National efforts and results Correct trajectory and initial amplitude, but

little mid-course adjustment Ongoing analysis and data efforts, but not

informing nor driving policy until recently

Just a bit of history

Royal College report on specialists Ongoing work for primary care CMA site:

http://cma.ca/c3pr. This site has a wealth of data and reports on each jurisdiction and specialty,

and analyzes the factors affecting workforce supply and need, historical and predicted trends, etc.

Based on the CMA’s Physician Resource Evaluation Template (PRET)

Current modelling and reports

Arising from CMA General Council 2013, further work undertaken at c3pr to understand where there are jobs and collect this information into a collective and accessible resource.

Some slides follow (Lynda Buske) highlighting recent findings.

Recent CMA work

Projected physician supply• Using a stock and flow model, CMA

annually projects supply for a “status quo” scenario.

• 1999 projections indicated a worsening of the physician to population ratio.

• Medical schools increased first year enrolment drastically since 1999 - by 78%.

• Physician retirement slowed.• Net emigration went from -244 in 1999

to +77 in 2011• Projections now show a steady increase

in physicians per 1000 population.

102,270 licensed physicians in Canada by 2030 Half will be female (37% today) Proportion over 55 years 36% (39% today) Physicans per 1000 population increases 16%, FTEs

increase 14% from 2013 to 2030 Gender work hours gap is narrowing FPs 51% (unchanged from 2013 to 2030)

Projections to year 2030 (PRET)

Aging population Heightened immigration More chronic disease (at all ages) New technologies Constricting budgets Altered social norms

The near-term Futurist

People/Teams – no solo practices, PAs, more NPs, interdisciplinary teams Resources (funding models), facilities and equipment Global competition Locations of care Information/Communication relay Chronic care – “fix” vs. maintain Alternate providers and self-care, personalized medicine, private options Technology (distance Sx, point of care diagnostics)

What might practice look like?

What should we be doing (regarding production) from the view of: Trainees Training institutions Society

Financial Satisfying need

Bigger picture

Interests and aptitude Current opportunities and projected future

opportunities Mitigating downside risks Contextualize for your best view of your hoped-for life

Location, family, recreation, earning potential, academic, teaching, flexibility

Making decisions

Remember that what your 5 and 10 year horizon looks like may not adequately consider your future opportunities

Do what you think you will love to do Self-analyze your personality and attributes –

match them to your career aspirations

Making decisions

Contemplate the skills versus knowledge versus abilities interface

Pester your mentors and heroes Optimize flexibility within the constraints of

your chosen route

Making decisions

You have anticipated roles as healers, comforters and leaders.

Whether as clinicians, researchers, administrators, advocates, or teachers, society will need each of you.

While much is expected of you in return, your success benefits the society that pours resources into your development.

The long view

Your profession is favored by the privilege of societal respect and recognized value.

Create value within your role as a physician, now and throughout your career, and the rest will take care of itself.

The long view

eric.wasylenko@albertahealthservices.ca

Discussion