ufore overview and process. overview & process i what is ufore? science-based computer model...

UFORE

Overview and Process

Overview & Process IWhat is UFORE?Science-based computer model that

quantifies urban forest structure, functions, and values

Collection of analysis toolsBody of SAS code accessible through

USDA Forest Service in SyracuseSpecialized analysis for urban ecosystems

Overview & Process IEcosystem“Functional units of interacting abiotic, biotic, and

cultural (anthropogenic) components”Includes all trees

Public/privateNative/exotic/utopian

No systematic management of individuals, but we can and--many believe--must manage the population

Population contributes to common good at much reduced cost/benefit ratio than street trees

Overview & Process II

Status of UFOREFully operational as program at Syracuse

running in SAS codeBeing converted to desktop app for

Windows OS Conversion work will occupy next few years

Major advances for i-Tree:Data collection appReporting mechanism

UFORE

INPUT

OUTPUT

i-Tree 1.0

i-Tree 1.0

Overview & Process IIIDesigned for ecosystem analysis

CalculatesStructure, e.g.

Leaf area and biomass Species and DBH distribution

Function, e.g. VOC emissions Pollution removal Effect on building energy use Total carbon stored and net carbon sequestered

annually

Value based on structure, function

1 metric ton (“tonne”) = 1.10231131 US (short) ton

Overview & Process IV

What good is it?Aid planning and managementImprove forest designsProject future impactsAssess impact of catastrophic events Justify programs

Source: http://www.houstonregionalforest.org/Report/

Overview & Process V

How does it work?Uses field data to calculate structureUses structure data to calculate functionUses function data to calculate valueUses value data to make recommendations

The Devil lurks, as always, in the details

3 questions

Ask when evaluating models:Do I understand the numbers?Can I trust the numbers?Can I use the numbers?

I want to drill down one level in an effort to answer these questions

Overview & Process VI

Where do the numbers come from?

Let’s examine one relatively *simple* set of calculations: CARBON

Start with allometric¹ equations estimating above-ground biomass from species and DBH ¹ = relation of the growth of a part of an

organism to the growth of the whole

Source: http://www.greenhouse.gov.au/ncas/reports/pubs/tr05afinal.pdf

Regression of DBH as predictor of biomass

Overview & Process VIConvert with species-specific conversion factor: above-ground biomass whole tree biomass

Adjust for 80% less biomass for open-grown urban trees than computedBased on field measurements of 30 urban trees in

ChicagoNowak 1994 publication (Chicago study)

How much of biomass is carbon? Divide biomass by 0.5 to derive stored carbon (Chow and Rolfe 1989)

/* ADJUST LEAF AREA OF TREES FOR OVERLAP

/* OF CROWNS WITHIN CANOPY

/* Total the ground area of all the trees within each of the plots. /* In addition, use ID option of the PROC MEANS to retain the

/* percent tree cover (P_TREE) of each of the plots.

PROC SORT DATA = NEWTREES;

BY PLOT LIVING TBM_TYPE;

RUN;

 PROC MEANS SUM N DATA = NEWTREES NOPRINT;

BY PLOT LIVING;

VAR GRD_AREA LEAF_ARE TEMP_SH;

ID P_TREE PLT_AREA;

OUTPUT OUT = TARE_PLT SUM = TOT_CRWN TOT_LA TOT_SH N = TOT_NUM;

RUN;

UFORE: SAS code segment

http://tell.fll.purdue.edu/JapanProj/FLClipart/Adjectives/heavy.gif

Is this too MUCH??!!

Overview & Process VIUse growth and mortality rates for annualStart with published and/or field data for

species and DBH classAdjust growth (C storage) for

Site (e.g., park 1.78 times less growth than street) Growing season length Condition of tree

Adjust mortality (C release) for % of condition class Rapid release (above ground, populated areas) Slow release (below ground, unpopulated areas)

Growth - Mortality net annual C storage

Overview & Process VIValueMultiply net annual stored C by $20.30/tC

Based on the estimated marginal social costs of carbon dioxide emissions (Fankhauser, 1994).

Stochastic model treats uncertainties in global warming research/debate as random variables.

Provides a distribution of outcomes from which means can be calculated.

Rough order-of-magnitude assessment.

Does this help?!

Are me?